I was just sitting here knocking out some Weather Page comments for later in the week, noting how little snow we've had this winter here in Baltimore - just a shade over 8 inches. Of that, more than 7 inches fell in just two storms. How different it's been out on Maryland's western frontier.

Dave Buck, at the State Highway Administration reminded me last Friday, as I was putting together our Saturday ice-storm story, that parts of the mountain counties have seen 25 accumulating snowstorms this winter. Keyser's Ridge, in Garrett County has had a total of 75 inches, Buck said.

Deep Creek Lake image from Railey Realty webcam 

Or at least that's what they'd had by Friday. There's more snow ahead for those folks this week. A Heavy Snow Warning is posted for Garrett. Cold air pouring into the region from the northwest is bringing more snow out there today. Some locations in Garrett and Allegany will see 5 to 8 inches today and tonight, with up to 10 inches possible in some spots.

There are scattered snow showers in the forecast for us flatlanders, but with temperatures already in the 40s, that seems like wishful thinking. But colder air is piling in. BWI will sink to 20 degrees tonight, and with stiff northwest winds, the wind chills will drop to the teens, despite the return of some sunshine.

There could be still more light snow for the mountains on Friday as another little storm trips down from the Great Lakes. We get rain. Saturday bumps up the risk of snow showers again, but Sunday and Monday look like a breath of spring. Highs will run up into the 50s, to near 60 degrees by Monday.

The next storm could bring us heavy rains by Tuesday.  We'll take them. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Only Marylanders would make such a fuss over this storm. Am I wrong? Am I missing something?

Here are the snow/ice accumulation reports from around the region.  Allegany County wins again with 2 to 6 inches reported way out west. But around here, nearly all of the snowfall is recorded at fractions of an inch. Ice is being measured in hundredths. Power outages at BGE have soared to a total of - 19. 

Okay. It is slippery underfoot this morning. Steps, stoops, sidewalks and parking lots can be tricky if you're not nimble on your pins. And maybe that's enough to make school officials think twice about opening the schools before their parking lots and sidewalks are treated. And the storm, after all, is not over yet.

The roads seemed fine when I ventured out. The salt trucks that woke me up in the wee hours have done their job.

But clearly there have been slippery spots. There have been many accidents this morning. If schools had opened, and just one of those accidents had involved a school bus, the decision-makers would have been burned at the stake.

So what do you think? Are we making too much of this storm? Or should we always err on the side of caution? 

Continue reading "Snow, ice, drizzle and fog" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (28)
                    

Enjoy the sunshine today, because you're not going to like tomorrow. The National Weather Service has posted a "Winter Storm Watch" for all of Maryland west of the Bay, effective from this evening through late Friday night.

UPDATE: The storm "watch" has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, effective from 10 p.m. tonight through 10 p.m. Friday, from the Bay to Allegany County. The NWS forecasts light snow overnight, followed by freezing rain on and off into the evening on Friday. Expect a quarter-inch of ice and "substantial travel problems and power outages."  Sounds like a snow day to me, but stay in touch with your school - Sign up for The Sun's school closings alert service. See the end of this post for details.

Earlier post: This storm will likely start tonight as snow, but the thinking in Sterling appears to be that it will be largely an ice storm, with the potential for a quarter-inch of ice forming as the snow changes to sleet and freezing rain.  

We'll see clouds moving in from the southwest by this afternoon, the harbingers of the low-pressure system spinning up from the Texas Gulf Coast. Here's the radar loop.  And here's what the water vapor loop looks like.

If the forecast holds up, it will start as snow, and could accumulate an inch or two before the changeover begins.

Here's the setup: All this cold, arctic air that moved in with yesterday's Alberta Clipper is continuing to build. It's only 25 degrees here at Calvert & Centre streets as I write this. That sets up what meteorologists call a "cold air damming" scenario. This cold air is dense and heavy, and is not easily dislodged by the warm air advancing with the Texas storm.

So, we get warm, moist air aloft, dropping precipitation through the cold air layer at the surface. If the cold air layer is thick enough, we get snow. But as the warm air slowly erodes the cold layer, the cold gets thinner. The precipitation begins to fall as rain right through the thinning cold layer. It lands on sidewalks and tree limbs - where the cold air persists - and freezes in place. That's freezing rain. We get an ice buildup and - while it can be beautiful - all sorts of bad things happen.

Forecasters are having a hard time sorting all this out, and figuring out when the snow will change to sleet and freezing rain, and how much of each we'll get. But we should expect a couple of inches of snow and sleet by daybreak, followed by an extended period of freezing rain. Southern counties could see a change to all-rain, but the ice/rain line remains unknown.

The morning discussion seems to suggest the cold air will hang on longer than some of the computer models might suggest. We could get more snow than they're expecting: "If future (computer) runs come in colder again, or if observations come in colder than (computer) guidance, then (predicted) snow totals will need to be bumped up and ice accumulations toned down. Regardless, there's enough concern to justify continuance of the winter storm watch..."

At the tail end of tomorrow's storm, cold air moves back in, and any lingering precipitation on Saturday could be snow.

Here's AccuWeather.com's Henry Margusity on the forecast. And here's his precipitation map.

Continue reading "Snow, ice storm on deck" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (7)
                    

Keep an eye on the roads this afternoon. As this Alberta Clipper approaches from the west, forecasters say, we should expect snow to begin in the western suburbs of Baltimore and Washington by noon, with snow reaching the urban corridor between 1 and 3 p.m.

Only in this winter of skimpy snow would we pay so much attention to this storm. But here we are, reduced to writing about 1 to 2 inches of snow. There will also be more wintry weather Thursday night into Friday. More on that in a moment.

The National Weather Service has posted a "Snow Advisory" for the almost the entire state west of the Chesapeake Bay, effective from 11 a.m. through 10 p.m. That means periods of snow will put a thin frosting on the roads and limit visibilities. Northern and western regions can expect the most snow. Salt crews are sure to be busy out there. The weather folks are urging caution while driving this afternoon. But then, shouldn't we ALWAYS be cautious while driving two-ton machines at 60 mph?

The impending storm is cranking up over southern West Virginia, and light snow has already moved into Frostburg. Our blue skies early this morning have changed over to a solid overcast. It's cold, and it feels like snow.

We could start to see flurries by lunchtime, but the real snow may not get cranking until early afternoon. By rush hour, it should be well underway. And with temperatures trending lower than earlier forecast, we will likely see all snow. I expect we will see some early exits from downtown this PM. Here's the radar loop. And a satellite shot.

The low will move offshore this evening, and skies should begin to clear. The NWS calls for clearing by "around midnight," which would be too late for those of us hoping to see at least part of tonight's total eclipse of the moon. With luck, maybe this thing will pick up speed and get out of here by 10. That would work out fine, since the period of totality starts at 10, and runs through 10:52 p.m. I'd be happy seeing half of that, and then the moon's slow return to full illumination by midnight.

Whatever sunshine we see Thursday morning will not last. By nightfall we'll be looking for more precipitation. The second storm of the week comes to us from the Texas Gulf Coast. It will track our way and collide with the cold, arctic air we're experiencing now.

Some of the computer models suggest the cold air will persist, giving us a longer period of snow. Others say we can expect a changeover to rain by Friday morning. Forecasters are hedging their bets for now, predicting snow and sleet for Thursday night, followed by freezing rain and sleet for Friday and Friday night. A good old Wintry Mix. AccuWeather is already out with a snow forecast map (left).

Looking deeper into the crystal ball, the author of this morning's forecast discussion from Sterling mentions "yet another storm" that computer models show forming in the Rockies reaching us by Monday night or Tuesday. Nobody is predicting accumulations on that one yet.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Everybody knew yesterday's brief excursion into the 70s (it was 71 degrees at BWI for a short time) was a fluke, right? Now we learn just how flukey that was. The weather service is predicting snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain for the balance of the week. It's winter once again.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is going to move into the region today, bringing a chance for showers in the western counties, perhaps even some snow showers.

Tomorrow it looks like we're in the path of an Alberta Clipper - one of those not-so-fierce but potentially troublesome storms that come barreling out of central Canada. They don't bring a lot of moisture with them, but they can drop several inches of snow along a fairly narrow path.

Forecasters aren't sure quite what to expect from this one. They're pointing to similarities between this setup and the Clipper than dropped 4 inches of snow at BWI on Dec. 5. Some locations only got an inch, and others got as much as 7 inches from it.

The uncertainty with this event is the temperature and the exact path of the storm. "The thermal profile will be conducive to produce snowfall," they said in this morning's discussion, and "that snow is likely to come in a swath," with our region in a "transition zone."

Translation: They don't know how much snow we can expect, or where the snow/rain/slop lines will be. Stay tuned. Here's AccuWeather's take on it. Their Elliot Abrams is calling it the snowiest pattern of the winter, for whatever that is worth. Here's Henry Margusity's blog.

Skies could clear enough Wednesday night to afford us a peek at the total lunar eclipse, which begins around 8:30 p.m. and continues through midnight. (We'll have a story in tomorrow's Sun.)

And Thursday will start sunny, but that will be a brief pause before the next wintry weather arrives.

Forecasters say the cold air will remain at the surface, with highs Thursday and Friday only in the 30s, and lows in the 20s. Add in a surge of moisture and warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico as a low now forming over the Texas coast pushes northward, and we get interesting weather.

Forecasters, in their discussion this morning, said, "Thermally, it will be cold enough for snow at the onset. But as warm air advection (inflow) continues (we) foresee a mixed bag, as there should be an above-freezing layer aloft."

And all this wintry mess will stay with us from Thursday night into Saturday. Hang in there. Spring is just 4 1/2 weeks away.

.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
                    

The dusting of snow we were forecast to see overnight stayed well to the south of Baltimore. But the Lower Eastern Shore saw enough to whiten the beach at Ocean City and to close schools in Dorchester County for the day.

Here's the view from Phillips Beach Plaza Hotel this morning. Observers at Salisbury-Wicomico County Regional Airport reported light snow between 2 a.m. and 6 a.m.  

The snow curling around onto the back side of the cold front has now departed, moving out to sea, and high pressure is building into the region. That means sunny skies today and much of tomorrow, but with more seasonable temperatures today, warming into the 50s tomorrow (Friday).

Late tomorrow, another cold front will push through, dropping temperatures on Saturday. The high will stick in the 30s, with an overnight low in the mid-20s early Sunday.

Then clouds move in again, with rain likely by Sunday night. Presidents Day will likely see showers, too, with a high warming back into the 40s until yet another cold front drops things back into the 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Friday's storm system is threatening to put a glaze of ice on things west of the I-95 corridor. The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Storm Watch from Carroll and Frederick counties westward.

The watch, in effect from late Thursday through Friday afternoon, calls for sleet first, then freezing rain. "The watch area has a potential for a quarter-inch or more of accumulating ice," forecasters said. They're most concerned about the stretch from Hagerstown to Westminster.

Worse, behind the rains late on Friday we'll get strong winds, which will likely bring down some trees, limbs and power lines already burdened with ice. It could be a cold, dark weekend for some.

Down here in the low country we still have a potential for some freezing rain. There's now a Hazardous Weather Outlook message posted for the I-95 corridor. But on the whole it should be a rain event. But it will pay to be cautious driving around on Friday.

This event is still 24 hours away, and the forecast could change and shift the slippery stuff eastward. So stay tuned.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Whew! Glad this day is over. When you work mostly indoors, you forget what it's like to be outdoors in winter weather for long periods of time.

I had to stop in Wiltondale for an hour or so this morning, to interview residents for a story that will likely run in The Sun Monday morning. It was about 28 degrees. The sun was shining, but it wasn't helping much. Stood in the cold, scribbling notes as fast as I could while my fingers slowly froze. And as any reporter knows, Bic pens begin to slow and fade when temperatures dip below freezing, so as my notes grew a paler shade of blue, I had to stop periodically to warm the tip o' the Bic in my too-cold hands.

The folks who graciously gave me their time and thoughts never thought to invite me inside. So my hands and face are still red from the exposure, and it took me all day back in the newsroom to warm up. It's my own fault, really. I went out without a hat. And I could use some gloves with the fingers cut out so I can hold a pen. And I learned long ago I need a No. 2 pencil on days like this. Lesson learned.

The forecast   calls for bitter cold temperatures tonight, with a low around 17 degrees, and another cold day tomorrow, more than 5 degrees below normal. Things will cloud up, too, and there's a slight chance of snow early Sunday morning. Only an inch or less. And given the snow-forecasting success we've seen from Sterling in recent weeks, I wouldn't count on that. More storms are forecast for next week, but all of them have still-unresolved issues about snow/rain mixes.

We'll just have to wait and see whether clouds ruin our view of a couple of nice evening flybys expected next week by the International Space Station. Stay tuned for the specifics.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Looks like the central counties on Maryland's Eastern Shore stand the best chance for some accumulating snow today - but only an inch or two.

The National Weather Service has posted a Snow Advisory for Caroline, Talbot and Queen Anne's counties, effective from noon to 7 p.m. Also included are southern Delaware and southeastern New Jersey. Here's an Easton webcam shot.

A passing cold front, coupled with a low-pressure system forming off the Virginia coast are combining to generate the snowfall east of the Chesapeake. Unfortunately, prime time for this snow will be between 4 and 8 p.m., if the forecasters are right - drive time for those crossing the bay and heading for home on the shore. They may encounter some heavy snow showers that could quickly turn things white. Here's the radar loop.

The urban corridor on the Western Shore shouldn't see that much - just scattered snow showers, forecasters said.

But Maryland's mountains could see some accumulating snow as the cold air moves in. "Will go 1 to 3 inches, although I wouldn't be surprised to see higher amounts," forecasters said in this morning's discussion.

Friday should be sunny but cold, perhaps 5 degrees below the norm for this time of year at BWI. A weak storm system will pass by on Saturday, with only slight chances for rain or snow. Sun returns Sunday and things begin to warm up for the start of the new work week. We may even move into above-normal territory, in the mid-40s.

The meteorological winter will be two-thirds over by the end of next week. And we have so far seen just 7.2 inches of snow. That's less than 40 percent of the average seasonal snowfall at BWI (18.2 inches). Only two winters in the last 10 have seen less. They were:

1997-98:  3.2 inches

2001-02:  2.3 inches

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

What a tease. Mother Nature will toy with us again Thursday as yet another arctic cold front plows through, and another coastal low spins up off the Virginia Capes.

In any other winter that could be the recipe for a significant snowstorm for the Baltimore region. But in this winter of feeble snowstorms and too-mild temperatures we're likely looking instead at snow showers, and snow squalls in far Southern Maryland.

Today we get high pressure building in from the west. That means clear skies and good stargazing tonight if you want to brave the coldest temperatures we'll see for the rest of the week. The moon is still big and bright, and ruddy Mars still gleams high overhead in the evening. You might even spy Mercury lurking low on the western horizon after sunset.

By daybreak Thursday the next arctic front pushes across the mid-Atlantic states, triggering scattered snow showers, "where any burst could produce a quick coating of snow not unlike Tuesday of last week," the forecasters at Sterling said this morning.

Complicating the picture are computer models showing the development of a storm center off the coast. Some models predict that storm will get strong enough to increase the snowfall in Southern Maryland. "We will have to keep a close watch on successive model runs because if the NAM (model) is correct there will be the potential for a few inches across portions of (the forecast area)."

Okay, so it's hardly enough weather to write about. But this winter, this is the sort of stuff we get. Beyond tomorrow, we're looking at seasonably mild temperatures through the weekend. The next chance for precipitation comes early next week. They're expecting "mainly rain."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The weather service has backed off from its earlier forecast for a "wintry mix" (still sounds like a crisp salad) today. Instead of snow, sleet and freezing rain, we're now in line for a little rain, maybe a little sleet after 3 p.m., ending by midnight. The winter weather advisory was cancelled earlier today for the Baltimore area, thought it remains in place to our north and west.

The noon discussion from Sterling suggests the problem was too-dry air left over from the bitter-cold high we saw over the long weekend. Whatever precipitation there was with this thing, it was unable to do very much as it moved up against the dry air already in place. Forecasters are still holding out for some snow showers on the western slopes of the Alleghenies.

Behind all this stuff is more high pressure and a sunny day tomorrow with a high near 40.

The next chance for snow appears to come after sunrise on Thursday. Forecasters are calling for a 50 percent chance for snow showers on Thursday as another cold front presses through. If the forecast holds up, there may be some intense squalls, with rapid accumulation of an inch or two in spots, and gusty winds.

Temperatures Thursday night will drop back into the teens. The weekend looks sunnier, with temperatures about right for this time of year.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Looks like a short but wintry work week ahead. You needed to hear that on your day off, right? Well, National Weather Service forecasters say this big, dry and very cold high-pressure system is slowly moving off to our sotuh and east. That will bring us into a more southerly flow. Don't expect balmy temperatures. It will remain below average for this time of year all week.

But the warmer, wetter weather, coupled with a low-pressure system out of the Great Lakes will bring us some snow after 10 a.m. Tuesday, they say. It will likely change to rain late in the day Tuesday. "Only minor snow/ice accumulations possible," they promise.

Behind that we get another cold front from the upper Midwest, and more dry, sunny weather for Wednesday. But right on its heels they're expecting an Alberta Clipper system from Canada, one of the world's great exporters of weather.

These clippers don't typically bring us a lot of snow. But the air in advance of it will be fairly cold. So when the storm gets cranked up here late Wednesday night, it will start out as snow, and some of it may be pretty heavy, in squalls, if the forecast holds up. "A couple of inches is not out of the question with this system," the forecast discussion says.

The good news is, we're now past the (statistically) coldest days of the year. From here on out, the average daily highs and lows gradually creep upward. Spring may not be in sight, but from here we can begin to imagine it.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
                    

Sure it's cold. The thermometer out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville slumped to 13 degrees at around 9:30 p.m. on Sunday. It's 15 degrees out at BWI at this writing, and 10 degrees in Frederick. It's expected to be the coldest night of the winter so far at the airport. My heat pump is grinding away out there, but you'd never know it by the temperature (60 degrees) in our bedroom.

But then, we're not exactly on Mt. Washington, either. The Mt. Washington Observatory in New Hampshire has clocked winds at over 90 mph today, with a real temperature tonight of minus-17 degrees. Oh, and a wind chill of 60-below! You can check it yourself at the observatory's Web site. Noodle around and find the observers' comments. They're pretty amazing. They had ravens and foxes up there today.

So how cold is it where you are? Drop me a comment and let us all know what your thermometer is telling you. Tell us where you are and how you're coping with the cold. Did you see those guys on the field in Green Bay tonight? Two below zero with a wind chill of minus-23 degrees. In their short sleeves?!  Who would go to a game like that, in those conditions, and sit in the stands? What am I missing here? Alcohol?

What's the coldest temperature you've ever experienced? When my wife and I lived in Hanover, N.H. back in the early 1970s, we awoke three mornings in a row to temperatures of 27 degrees below zero. Never got warmer than minus-4 during the day. We had to bring the car battery indoors at night or there was no hope of the thing starting in the morning. And, I had to go out to the parking lot at work every 2-3 hours during the day to start it up, or it would refuse to get me home at night. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (7)
                    

As Maryland has moved its presidential primary elections earlier and earlier in the year in futile bids to remain relevant, it has also been moving them deeper into our high-risk snow season.

Back in 1972, all the presidential candidates were campaigning in Maryland in May. That's why George Wallace was in Laurel on that balmy spring day when he was shot down in an assassination attempt.

In 1988, the primary was moved to Super Tuesday, in early March. But as other states advanced their primaries, Maryland's visibility faded again. In 1992, the date was shifted a week earlier. And Martin O'Malley last year tried the tactic once again when he orchestrated another advance to the second Tuesday in February - Feb. 12 this year.

Well, guess what? That's backed the primary deep into snow season in Maryland. Oh it won't always snow during the second week in February around these parts. But when it does, it can be a whopper. And Marylanders don't deal with heavy snow like they do in Iowa or New Hampshire. Maryland stops moving, often for days.

As I've noted here before, that single week between Feb. 11 and Feb. 19 has seen five of the biggest 10 snowfalls on record for Baltimore, and six of the top 10 for Washington, going back well into the 19th century. It's happened three times  in recent memory: in 1979, 1983 and 2003. You can look it up here.

None of those years was a presidential election year. But what would happen if - or, better put - what will happen when one of these giant nor'easters buries the state in 15 or 25 inches of snow just as Marylanders are preparing to vote for the presidential candidate of their choice? Do you think Baltimore's election officials will get the polls open if it's snowing? How many voters will make it?

There's a price to be paid for this sort of scrambling for attention. What we really need is a thorough overhaul of the presidential primary system. Make it shorter, and thereby less costly, and allow voters in every state have a meaningful voice in the selection of party candidates. But that's for another blog.

Continue reading "Maryland primary now in snowiest week" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Yes, there is more snow in the forecast, nevermind the bright sunshine and all the melting going on out there today. The National Weather Service folks in Sterling are making it a 50 percent chance of snow as yet another storm gears up for a run along the coast.

Our results will depend on the storm's track, but even if it tracks farther offshore than expected, we will still see some precipitation, they say. Temperatures will be cold enough to support snow. But "amounts for the most part will be light," the NWS says. "The exception could be lower Southern Maryland." Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the storm, which it tags as having "little impact."

But stay tuned. Snow forecasts can change.

The real weather news this weekend won't be snow, but cold. As the Saturday storm departs, an arctic cold front will move across the region, dropping temperatures into the teens Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will be blustery all weekend, adding serious wind chill issues to the low temperatures.

Behind the front, the air will be clear, so Sunday will be sunny. But temperatures will stay below freezing all day with a forecast high of only 28 degrees. Monday morning will be the coldest, with a low of 13 degrees forecast for BWI.

After that, the warmup will be slow, creeping toward the freezing mark on Monday and the upper 30s by Tuesday as the arctic high moves off the coast to our east. Normal highs at this time of year are in the low 40s.

Forecasters say we can expect another bout of precipitation at mid-week, but they're calling for rain, not snow.

Continue reading "Snow Saturday not a worry" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

National Weather Service forecasters say the precipitation will continue into the evening, though it will be lighter than we saw earlier today. But warmer air is working it's way into the region, and that means we'll see more rain south and east of the cities, but sleet and freezing rain north and west.

Here, I'll just let the folks in Sterling sort it out:

"AS FOR P-TYPE (PRECIPITATION TYPE), WARMER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION ALOFT ALLOWING
FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND EVEN RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE CITIES SOUTH AND EAST THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH WARM AIR OFF THE OCEAN FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING
CAUSING THE MAIN P-TYPE TO BE RAIN/DRIZZLE. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE SUBURBS AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD IN PLACE AND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT THIS MEANS THE MAIN P-TYPE WILL BE SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR FROZEN PRECIP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WE WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR NOW"

Bottom line, stay home with a good book tonight.

So far Glen Burnie, of all places, seems to hold the brass ring for the most snow in the Baltimore area today, at least according to the latest storm report from Sterling.

And the cleanup has begun. Our ace tech person in the newsroom has just put on his coat and he's headed up to the roof to sweep off the satellite dish antennas. The snow cut off reception of our Associated Press news and features feeds, and our New York Times wire feed. 

And here's a hoot. I received this photo this afternoon from Steve Zubrick, the NWS science and operations officer out at Sterling.

Here's what he had to say about it:

"Frank,

Check this out...this is >one< "snowflake" that landed on my shirt around 3 PM this afternoon here at the weather office that measured nearly 1.75" across. Wow! This is an aggragate of snow flakes. When the whole sky is full of these, it's impressive!

Winds were very light at the time. These mega-flakes fell almost vertically. If winds were gusty, these mega-flakes would never make it to the surface.

Picture credit: NWS WFO forecaster Steve Rogowski (and that's my shirt!).

Steve Z."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Here I am, stuck inside on this beautiful snowy January day, writing about the weather outside. But I'm inside, chained to a computer, and I can only see a stretch of Calvert Street, the JFX and Guilford Avenue. They're starting to look slushy and slippery. But how would I know?

If you've been out in it, drop me a comment here and let us all know what the driving and walking conditions are like. How bad is it really? Be sure to say where you are. As Stephen L. Miles used to say, 'Lets talk about it.'

You can also upload your digital photos to our readers' photo page. Do it now! Give us shut-ins a vicarious day in the snow.

I notice that the precip at BWI has changed to rain in the last hour. I guess that's the beginning of the end for accumulations across the area today.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (26)
                    

The snow has begun to fall at Calvert & Centre streets. But the temperature outside the newsroom is 36 degrees, so it's hard to imagine any of this will stick on the streets. Forecasters continue to call for an inch or two in the I-95 corridor, and a couple more than that to our west.

Maybe they're onto something. I notice the barometer has been falling since the snow began. So is the temperature, which happens when it precipitates.

Some Virginia locations are already reporting several inches on the ground. To check for school closings, or subscribe to school closing alerts, click here.

Here's the Winter Weather Advisory for east of I-95. And this is the Winter Storm Warning posted for Carroll County and west. Below is the snow prediction map from AccuWeather.com  Clearly most of the snowfall will be well to our west and northeast, by their estimates.

The NWS says to expect moderate to heavy snow rates as the storm gets started. Here's the radar loop. The changeover to a rain/snow mix will start to our southwest and work its way north and east. As the storm moves up the coast we will fall into a more easterly flow of air off the ocean. The NWS is saying that will mean warmer air and a change to freezing rain or rain this afternoon, depending on how long it takes to shake the colder temperatures near the surface. But it looks to me like the air near the surface is already well above freezing.

Even if we get off easy with this one, as it appears we may, the forecasters have more in store. They're expecting a second coastal low to move our way on Saturday, with precipitation likely to increase as the day wears on. Like today's weather, that storm is expected to start as snow, then mix and change to rain in the eastern sections of the region during the afternoon.

The really cold air arrives as the Saturday storm departs with a high Sunday only in the upper 20s.

Our next storm chances are forecast for the middle of next week.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)