No sooner do I get the last post - about "forecast creep" in the accumulation predictions from Sterling - and the National Weather Service bumps its accumulation forecast for the coming storm to 10 to 20 inches. Sheesh.

A noon update to the Winter Storm Warning issued overnight for the state calls for the snow to begin  between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. tonight, with snow continuing throughout the the day Saturday and into early Sunday. The heaviest snow is expected to fall between 8 a.m. and 6 p.m. Saturday. So much for the Christmas shopping.

Temperatures will stick in the upper 20s to low 30s throughout the day, so we should expect an all-snow event for the most part. (There has been some talk of an injection of warmer air into the storm as it cranks up, but I don't see that in the forecast.)

Add all that up and they're now talking about 10 to 20 inches of snow for Baltimore before it all ends. The special bonus will be the winds - 10 to 20 mph, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph, which will keep the snow moving around after its plowed and reduce visibility. Travel, as they say, will be "extremely treacherous."

Did I mention coastal flooding? The deep low-pressure system and prolonged northeast winds will drive Chesapeake Bay water onto the western Shore. Expect some minor coastal flooding in the usual low spots. Nothing like they're seeing from this storm in Florida today.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (52)
Categories: Winter weather
        

As often happens just before Maryland's biggest snowstorms, the National Weather Service's snowfall predictions continued to creep upward on Friday. The first predictions were issued with Thursday's Winter Storm Watch, and they mentioned "more than 5 inches." 

The Winter Storm Warnings issued overnight for the entire state advise residents to prepare for 5 to 10 inches, with "locally higher amounts possible, mainly in or near Southern Maryland."

The forecast for BWI during the daytime on Saturday now calls for 7 to 11 inches. Add in the 1 to 2 inches expected before dawn Saturday, and you get 8 to 13 inches.

Looking back, it seems to me that is a pattern for the forecasters out at Sterling. They tend to be cautious and conservative with these snow predictions, as they should be, given their responsibilities. As the really big storms close in, and our fate becomes inevitable, they begin to adjust their forecasts, and you can see the numbers begin to climb. Perhaps that's appropriate caution. Perhaps it's driven by sound science.

But it sometimes also seems to leaves them lagging behind some of the commercial and amateur forecasters, who seem to revel in the possibilities on the high side. It's good for ratings. It's good for click counts. It becomes the buzz.

And that's what seems to be playing out this morning. As Sterling weighs each model run, and forecasters add in their own knowledge and experience, their accumulation numbers begin to creep higher. Elsewhere, in the meantime, some broadcasters and commercial forecasters are talking about one to two feet of snow.

AccuWeather.com's headline this morning (if you can get to it; the site is very slow) warns of "a very disruptive Mid-Atlantic Blizzard." Its snow map (left) shows Baltimore in the 6 to 12-inch band. But blogger Henry Margusity is calling for 12 to 18 inches in Washington (and presumably Baltimore). Some of the computer models last night were even scarier, suggesting an historic dump of 24 to 36 inches.

Baltimore, at least, has never had a 36-inch snowstorm, so I think we can dismiss that as likely fantasy for us. In the mountains, maybe. Southwestern Virginia could see two feet in spots. But not here.

That said, it does look like we are in for a memorable storm. It could well be the biggest since the Feb. 11-12 snowfall in 2006 (photo above) that left 13.1 inches at the airport. If some of the higher predictions prove accurate, it could become the biggest snowfall since the record storm in February 2003, that piled up 28 inches at the airport and paralyzed the region for days.

Even a foot of snow, on top of the inch (officially, at BWI) that fell Dec. 5, and this would become the snowiest December since 1966, when 20.4 inches fell at the airport, still a record for the month. It would also become the fifth-snowiest December since record-keeping began in 1883.

December isn't often a snowy month in Baltimore. The long-term average snowfall in December is just 1.7 inches. Our snowiest months, on average, are January (7 inches) and February (6.4 inches). Here are the "snowiest December" numbers to watch as the snow piles up Saturday on your sidewalk:

December 1966:  20.4 inches

December 1904:  17.1 inches

December 1960:  15.6 inches

December 1932:  14.7 inches

(SUN PHOTO/John Makely/Feb. 12, 2006)

Continue reading "NWS: 5 to 10 inches, maybe more" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The National Weather Service forecasters out in Sterling have finally come around, raising the snow chances for Central Maryland to 80 percent for Saturday. They're still uncertain how much moisture, and therefore how much snow, the storm will produce here. But, apparently, snow it will. Winter weather advisories, or watches, could begin to appear in the forecast this afternoon.

UPDATE 5 p.m.: The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Storm Watch for all of Maryland, from late Friday night until late Saturday night. At least 5 inches of snow is expected, with more possible. AccuWeather.com is calling for 8 to 12 inches from Washington to Dover, Del. The earlier post resumes below.

Snow fans and school kids should check out Mr. Foot's forecast. He's talking about 8 to 12 inches, with some impact on school schedules on Monday.

As we've said, there will be plenty of cold air in place. There's a low-pressure system parked over Nova Scotia, and the counter-clockwise rotation around that low is pulling a steady stream of cold air around the western side and pumping it into the Northeast. That will make it cold enough for this storm to be all snow here, with a rain/snow line - this time- well to our south and east.

The real snow-maker will be the low that is cranking up over the Gulf of Mexico. It will track east, providing another drenching for the Deep South. Then it will emerge off the southeast Atlantic coast early Saturday and begin to head north and east.

Circulation around that low will begin to pump Gulf and Atlantic moisture our way. The main snow band on the AccuWeather.com maps (that's one possible scenario, above) runs from western North Carolina, straight up the I-95 corridor to Boston. Here's another from AccuWeather's Henry Margusity, showing that he believes 3 to 6 inches could fall here.

The snow is likely to start falling here in the wee hours of Saturday morning, if the forecast holds up. Highs on Saturday will hover near freezing, so we should see some snow all day, continuing into early Sunday morning.

It's supposed to stay cold early next week, and there is some chatter about a Christmas storm. Could we have a rare Baltimore white Christmas? Stay tuned.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (29)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Four Marylanders have died already this autumn under circumstances in which cold weather has played a role.

The state Department of Health and Mental Hygiene said Thursday the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner has ruled that hypothermia - low body temperature - was a contributing factor in the deaths of a Baltimore woman on Nov. 21; a Montgomery County man a week later; an Anne Arundel County man on Nov. 30, and a Baltimore County woman on Dec. 4.

There was no information on the other circumstances surrounding these deaths. But in past years, health authorities have said that most deaths involving hypothermia also involve such factors as advanced age, alcohol consumption, cardiovascular disease and dementia.

These four deaths were the first, but more are sure to follow. Last year the state counted 54 deaths involving hypothermia.

"Just a little preparation and common sense will keep you and your family safe and warm during the days and nights of sub-freezing temperatures this winter," said Maryland Health Secretary John M. Colmers. "We can save lives in severe weather by keeping our eyes open and checking our friends and neighbors, especially seniors.

Deaths from hypothermia do not require extremely low, or even freezing temperatures, only exposure to the cold, even indoors due to inadequate, failed or unused heating systems. The days on which these four Marylanders died were not particularly cold for this time of year. Here are the highs and lows at BWI for each of the deaths.

Nov. 21:  High 58  Low 39

Nov. 28:  High 50  Low 34

Nov. 30:  High 58  Low 38

Dec. 4:  High 48  Low 34 

The average highs for these dates are in the low 50s; the average lows are in the low 30s.

This weekend promises the coldest weather so far this season, with a low of 19 degrees forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning.

(SUN PHOTO/Kenneth K. Lam 1994) 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The official measurement on Saturday's snowstorm for Baltimore came to a whopping 1 inch. The National Weather Service's station of record for the city is at Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport, which was on the rainier, warmer side of this very varied storm.

But the snowfall map issued Monday by the forecast office in Sterling shows what we all already know - that the totals north and west of the airport were considerably deeper. Some locations within Sterling's forecast area reported as much as 8 or 9 inches of snow.

Parts of Carroll and Montgomery counties measured 6 and 7 inches. Locations closer to Baltimore ranged from an inch near the city, to 5 inches in the western suburbs of Baltimore County. Here are some more reports from across the region, from CoCoRaHS. Be sure to change the date to Dec. 6, and click on "New Snow." Some highlights:

Clarksburg, Montgomery Co.:  7.5 inches

Sykesville, Howard Co.:  6 inches

Mt. Airy, Carroll Co.: 5.5 inches

Ellicott City, Howard Co.: 4.1 inches

Cockeysville, Baltimore Co.:  3.1 inches

Severn, Anne Arundel Co.:  2.5 inches

Bowie, Prince George's Co.:  2.5 inches

Hamilton, Baltimore City:  1.1 inch

The distances between hardly any snow and considerable accumulations were often quite small. We had less than 2 inches on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville, but when we went to see friends for dinner in May's Chapel Saturday evening, they had what looked like 4 inches on their front yard.

And that's pretty much what forecasters had led us to expect. In fact, the forecasting on this quirky storm seems to have been quite good as it approached - from the timing, to the predicted accumulations, to the sharp differences in snow totals across small distances. Well done, Sterling.

(Photo courtesy of Gregory Hill, Owings Mills. Taken Sunday morning.)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Well now, wasn't that a nice little snowstorm? With the snow winding down across the region, the coastal low moving off, and the barometer bottoming out, it looks like we're about done. There's about 1.75 inches out on the WeatherDeck. The grass is white but the walks and roads around here are just wet or slushy.

All the same, there were kids out on the hill at Greenwood, on North Charles Street. The sledding looked a bit sticky and slow, but hey ... you take what you can get around here.

Here are some snow measurements from around the region, some of them taken earlier in the day. The local winner appears to be Woodlawn, with 5 inches. Feel free to send in comments with your own reports.

Skies should begin to clear off tonight, and we'll have sunshine on Sunday. This stuff should be gone quickly.

(SUN PHOTO/Frank Roylance)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

UPDATE: The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory from the Western Shore to Allegany County. Expect 1 to 2 inches of snow Saturday in Baltimore. Points north and west of the urban corridor could see 2 to 4 inches; to the south and east, little to no accumulation. Earlier post below. 

Another storm spinning up in the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to be off the Carolina coast by Saturday morning, raising the chances for some snow in Baltimore on Dec, 5. That would be the sixth time that's happened in the past eight years (or the seventh, if you factor in the Leap Year in 2008, when a trace of snow was noted at BWI on the 6th).

The forecast this morning calls for a "slight chance" for rain at BWI after 3 a.m. Saturday morning, changing to snow by dawn, then "rain and snow likely" between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m.

The precipitation would change back to all snow by late afternoon, continuing into the evening - if the forecast holds up. The chances, for now, are put at 80 percent.

AccuWeather.com, as we've come to expect, puts an edgier spin on the forecast, calling for 1 to 3 inches west of I-95, with travel delays, wet-to-slushy highways. (Map at left.) For a calmer analysis, check out Mr. Foot's forecast. He sees an inch. Maybe.

From there - Sunday through Tuesday - things look sunny, with highs in the 40s and lows near freezing.

Once again, precisely what happens Saturday, where it happens and when, will all depend on a delicate balance of timing, the storm track up the coast, and the interplay of temperatures aloft, where the snow will form, and near the surface.

Forecasters say it will "definitely" be cold enough to form the snow aloft as the counter-clockwise spin of winds around the storm draws cold air into our region from the north. But temperatures at the surface will range from the middle 30s in the western suburbs, to the lower 40s in Southern Maryland. On balance, expect flakes in the air west of the cities, and a rain/snow mix east of the urban corridor. For BWI, forecasters are predicting "less than one inch" of accumulation.

Nothing to worry about; just another Dec. 5 with flakes in the air, and perhaps a hint of snowier days to come.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (10)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It's that time of year again, when the WeatherBlog speculates about the chances for snow on Dec, 5. Why Dec. 5?

Well, because we've noticed a curious pattern - or coincidence - about some of the earliest snowfalls in Baltimore. It's just this: In five of the last seven years, Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport has recorded snow - at least a trace of snow - on Dec. 5. And it's snowed in six of the last seven years if you fudge the criteria a bit and include Dec. 6.

Here are the stats:

2008:  None  (but we got 0.6 inch on the 6th)

2007:  4.7 inches

2006:  Trace

2005:  1.4 inches (and another 1.9 inches on the 6th)

2004:  None (something went terribly wrong)

2003:  3.0 inches (and another 3.8 inches on the 6th)

2002:  7.4 inches (and a trace on the 6th).

Okay, so there's probably no real science attached to this. Call it folklore. Local folklore (it sounds nice coming off the tongue). But it fits in nicely with the season, and our inevitable anticipation of the first snowfalls.

That said, the long-range forecast for Saturday (the 5th) is not very promising: Mostly sunny with a high of 42 degrees. We may need to call for a pajama campaign to pull it off this year. Kids? Better turn those jammies inside-out this week.

If anyone has some other family snow charms that have worked for you in the past, let's hear about them. Looks like we're going to need them this year.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (8)
Categories: Winter weather
        

As if the weather outside your window weren't gloomy enough, now forecasters out at Sterling have inserted the words "rain/snow mix as far east as I-95" into their morning forecast discussion.

That prediction is for Friday night, as a low-pressure system spinning counter-clockwise over New England pulls cold air into our region on north winds. It's the first mention this season, I think, of the possibility of flakes in the air in Central Maryland. And so, it begins.

Before we get to Friday, of course, we are looking at more rain, drizzle and fog, at least into the early afternoon today. That's the doing of a coastal low that is now moving away from the region.

Weak high pressure is building into the region already, but it is not expected to drive off the low cloud cover. Drizzle and rain may persist overnight near the bay, while diminishing farther west.

The next coastal low is expected to develop Wednesday. This one appears likely to stay farther off shore, but forecasters say we will remain in line for still more showers and drizzle into Thanksgiving Day.

It's the passage of the next cold front that will turn our weather colder and breezier by late Thursday and Friday. North winds and dropping temperatures are forecast to change rain to snow in the Potomac Highlands late on Thanksgiving Day, and to a rain/snow mix as far east as the Blue Ridge.

By Friday night the cold air will have made it to Central Maryland, with an overnight low around 35 degrees Friday into Saturday. That's when we may see some snow mixed in with our rain.

Farther west, the snow will start to accumulate, and the National Weather Service is expressing "increasing confidence" in a need to issue some Winter Weather Advisories for Maryland's western counties by then. If you're driving west for Thanksgiving at Deep Creek Lake, or Pittsburgh or to visit relatives in West Virginia, pay attention to the forecasts.

Sunshine? You want sunshine? Hang on until the weekend. We should see some blue sky on Saturday. Sunday and Monday look better, too. Then the next storm system moves in.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

For those readers hoping for a snowy winter this year after a series of disappointments, there is hopeful news Monday morning out of the National Weather Service's Sterling forecast office. (Likewise, for those who loathe the ice and slush, dangers and inconvenience of wintery weather, these will be discouraging words.)

Forecaster Jared Klein has done a statistical analysis of winters since 1950 and has found 17 winters that were influenced by the El Nino phenomenon in the tropical Pacific, like this one is expected to be. The long and short of it, says Chris Strong, also at Sterling:

"With moderate strength El Nino's [like this one] we have statistically the greatest chance of above-normal snowfall."

What they're saying is that not all El Nino winters are alike for the mid-Atlantic states. Some will be snowy; some not. Here's how they tend to break down, according to Klein:

* On average, weak El Nino winters bring below-average temperatures and below-average precipitation. Not generally conducive to lots of snow.

* Strong El Ninos, on average, bring us above-normal temperatures and precipitation. The cold air tends to remain well to our north, so most of the precipitation falls as rain rather than snow.

Moderate El Ninos, on the other hand, seem to offer the greatest statistical chance that moisture and storms passing across the southern U.S. will "seed" the Atlantic coastal storms that tend to bring us our deepest snowfalls. We've already seen plenty of coastal storms this fall, including the big one last week that battered OC's dune line, and another one today.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course. There are other shorter- and longer-term climate patterns - including the North Atlantic Oscillation - that can determine whether there will be, for example, enough cold air in place to make snow-makers out of the coastal storms.

That helps to explain why, of the 17 El Nino winters since 1950, eight produced above-normal snowfalls, while nine were below-normal. (Weak La Nina winters can produce big snow, too, as it did in January 1996, right, although that's less common.)

Still, there is plenty to look forward to this time, Klein said. "The above-average El Nino winters have been associated with some of our snowiest winters, especially during moderate El Nino episodes. With the ongoing El Nino episode expected to continue, even strengthen to moderate levels this winter, El Nino will likely play an important role with the winter climate here in the greater Baltimore and Washington, D.C. area."

Among the most memorable snowstorms in El Nino winters was the Feb. 11, 1983 storm that dropped 22.8 inches on Baltimore. Then there were three storms in 1987: Jan. 22 (12.3 inches), Jan. 25 (9.6 inches), and Feb. 22, (10.1 inches).

Here is another summary of the El Nino effect on Baltimore snowfall, also from the NWS at Sterling:

"El Niño winters in the Baltimore Region mean a milder than normal December. They also tend to be all or nothing when it comes to snowfall. Either there are no significant snow storms and season snow totals average less than 5 inches or there is a tendency toward multiple snow storms with seasonal totals above 30 inches.  These storms usually occur in January and February. November, December, and March often see little or no snow."

Here are still more statistics on Baltimore snow and ice.

Continue reading "NWS: Moderate El Nino winters can be Md.'s snowiest" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (6)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Last week I wrote a brief comment on the print weather page about the early snowstorm that paralyzed Baltimore back on Nov. 6-7, 1953. I wondered if anyone would remember the storm, which was the earliest "heavy" (four inches or more) snowfall in Baltimore weather records.

This week I received the following note from Joan Parr, who clearly did. She writes:

"Mr. Roylance:

"If my memory serves me right, the storm you mentioned in your blog (on Friday, Nov. 6. 2009)  was indeed a traffic-snarler.  Drivers acted as if they had never seen snow before, and they just kept moving, right into intersections, creating gridlock. 

"This storm was, I believe, the impetus for Baltimore City to lure Henry Barnes away from Denver to come and make sense of our streets and traffic lights.  He did a very good job; one of his legacies which still exist in Baltimore is the "Barnes Dance,"  where all vehicular traffic is stopped and pedestrians are free to walk across the streets unobstructed by cars and trucks.

"Thank you for the reminder of that storm.    Joan K. Parr "   

(SUN PHOTO/Nov. 6, 1953/Cecil County)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

I missed this when it appeared last week. Some kind of problem with my "Favorites" list. Anyway, Mr. Foot, a Baltimore County science teacher and Maryland weather watcher much-consulted by county teachers and students eager for a snow break in winter time, is forecasting a "smackdown" storm here by mid-month.

Says he:

"I've maintained a position that the atmosphere is primed and ready to deliver, all we wait for now is "Only Time." I realize we haven't dug out the Thanksgiving decorations yet, but I can't resist the urge to tell you that before long, we will be reveling in the sight of "White in the Winter Night."

Here's the sequence for his early-season prognostications:

* 11/01-09: A mild to cool period then brief warmup

 * 11/10-15: Possible outbreak of Arctic air on or before 11/15

 * In same week, a "smackdown" storm with snow at the onset

 * 11/15-25: "yo-yo" period of below then above-normal temps

 * 11/25-12/5: Seasonal temps leading to kickoff event by 12/5.

To read the rest of his forecast, visit his blog, here.

(SUN PHOTO/David Hobby/McHenry, Md., October 2006)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

I know it's too early in the season to be amusing readers with winter weather data. But the National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling has posted a compendium of winter weather facts for Baltimore, Washington and Dulles Airport, and it's a fun read if you're into Baltimore's annual love/hate relationship with snow, cold and ice.

For example:

1. What was the iciest winter in recent Baltimore weather history?

2. How many of the deepest snowstorms in Baltimore have occurred since your Weather Blogger moved here from Massachusetts in 1980? Is that my fault?

3. What was the snowiest month in Baltimore history?

4. How long has it been since Baltimore (BWI) experienced sub-zero temperatures? How many times have we dipped below zero since 1960?

5. How many times per winter, on average, does Baltimore get a snowfall of 4 inches or more?

For answers to these questions and more, click here. There's more here. And you can contemplate the role of El Nino in Baltimore winters, here.

(SUN PHOTO/Mark Bugnaski/Ice storm, Baltimore, January 1994)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

If AccuWeather.com's chief meteorologist is right, Maryland is in for the coldest, snowiest winter we've seen since the memorable - and snow-choked - winter of 2002-2003.

A "fading" El Nino, and a shift to a warm phase of the "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" will combine with "other factors," Joe Bastardi said, to shift the worst of this winter's weather from the Midwest, where it was concentrated last winter, to the mid-Atlantic states.

(Others, including meteorologist Joe D'Aleo, former director of meteorology at The Weather Channel, note that this "shift" in the PDO is a temporary "spike" that will quickly reverse, and the PDO will resume its much longer "cool phase.")

Bastardi did not hestitate to predict Baltimore's winter for us. "Twenty-five inches at BWI, and 2.7 degrees below normal," he said, placing his bets on the season's total snowfall at the airport and the average temperature for the winter at BWI.

Bastardi's early winter forecast, out this morning, is among the first of the season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue its first winter forecast on Thursday morning.

The average snowfall for Baltimore for the 30-year period from 1971 to 2000 was 18.2 inches, and we've only topped that once since the big snows of 2002-03, and even then it was by less than an inch-and-a-half.

And Bastardi isn't predicting anything like the 58 inches the airport recorded that year. But, a snow total of 25 inches this winter would seem like a lot of snow after six winters in a row with less. The last two winters combined produced less than 18 inches of snow.

On the other hand, he said, "It has the potential to get there [55 inches]; don't get me wrong."

Among the "other factors" he takes into account, in addition to El Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, are the prevailing weather conditions and how they compare with past winters - winter analogs. Looking at those, he sees similarities between this year's patterns and those that prevailed during the winters of 1976-77, which was very cold, and 1977-78, which saw 34 inches of snow at BWI. 

He also saw a resemblance to the winter of 1957-58, which brought 43 inches of snow to Baltimore and very wintry weather in February and March. Another "analog" he includes in his "package" is the winter of 1965-66, with 32 inches of snow.

"There are some very heavy hitters coming to the plate," Bastardi said.

His seasonal forecast predicts that cities such as Boston, New York and Philadelphia will get above-normal snowfall, with 75 percent of it coming in two or three big storms. Snowfall in parts of the Appalachians could total 50 to 100 inches. Areas from Atlanta to Charlotte could also see snow this year as the storm track brings wintry weather across the South and up the Eastern Seaboard, with nor'easters from Hatteras to New Jersey.

As for when the bad weather will hit Maryland, Bastardi thinks it will get off to a late start. "I would say that we will remember more what happens in January and February than in December." He predicts a "threat of 30 to 45 days of outstanding winter weather, with two or three snowstorms and temperatures averaging more than five degrees below normal for two or three weeks in the heart of winter."

He noted that this year's early October snowfall in central Pennsylvania is a reminder of similar early snows in October 2002, and in other winters in his analog "package."

"All those winters have the same characteristics," he said.

So what was Bastardi's October forecast for last winter?

"One of the coldest winters in several years across much of the East," he said through Ken Reeves, a co-author on that forecast a year ago this month. And snowfall? "Probably somewhere in the mid- to upper-teens. Maybe around 20 inches," he said, with an early "rude slap" coming in December.

We ended the winter with 9.1 inches of snow for the season, and temperatures 2 degrees above normal. December, too, was almost 2 degrees warmer than normal, with just 0.6 inch of snow. No "rude slap."

(SUN PHOTO/Karl Merton Ferron/February 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (25)
Categories: Winter weather
        

From the brains of AccuWeather.com archivists comes the following insight: In years past, when American presidents have been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, the following winters have been cold and snowy in the Northeast.

Not sure what the science behind this phenomenon could possibly be. Coincidence, maybe?

Whatever, here's the short version:

1906: Theodore Roosevelt wins the award. The winter of 1906-1907 brings a severe February nor'easter to the coast and as much as 10 inches of snow between Feb. 4 and 6.

1919: Woodrow Wilson wins the Nobel, and January 1920 brings ice, sleet and snow to the Northeast. In February, 4-7, heavy snow drops from Maine to Virginia.

2002: Jimmy Carter wins the Nobel Peace Prize, and the winter of 2002-2003 brings the Feb. 14-19 storm that dumped 15 to 30 inches along the East Coast. Baltimore is buried in 28.2 inches, the deepest snowfall on record for the city.

You can read the entire cockamamie AccuWeather.com release here. But why would you bother?

AccuWeather is expected to release its forecast for this winter on Wednesday. Their hint: "Preliminary reports predict a cold and snowy winter for the Northeast."

(SUN PHOTO/Algerina Perna/February 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Take El Nino, a burst of volcanic activity and an unusually cool summer (so far) in the Northeast, and what do you get? AccuWeather.com says it's beginning to look a lot like an unusually cold and snowy winter ahead for the mid-Atlantic states.

I'm not sure I buy it. But AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi, is out today with the very-long-range forecast, and it makes for some good reading:

"The areas that will be hit hardest this winter by cold, snowy weather will be from New England through the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, including North Carolina. Areas from New York City to Raleigh have gotten by the past two years with very little snowfall. This year these areas could end up with above-normal snowfall."

"The overall weather pattern that has prevailed this summer is pointing to a winter very similar to that of 2002-03, when major cities on the East Coast had above-average snowfall. Expert Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity points out that in February of 2003, a major snowstorm paralyzed much of the Interstate 95 corridor, including New York City and Philadelphia. During the storm, airports were closed, roads were impassable, roofs collapsed and some schools were closed for a week, causing summer vacations to start late."

For the record, Baltimore had its deepest snowfall on record, and its snowiest February in 2003. That winter was also the second snowiest on record for the city.

If you're feeling hot on this 88-degree afternoon in downtown Baltimore, you can read more of AccuWeather's forecast, here.

(SUN PHOTO/Algerina Perna February 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has noted that sea surface conditions in the Pacific Ocean are evolving this spring away from the current "neutral" temperature pattern toward a new warm phase, also known as El Nino. And for us, El Ninos mean an increased likelihood of large snowfalls in the following winter.

For the last two winters we have been in a "La Nina," or the cool phase of what is known formally as the El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. And we have experienced unusually mild and dry winters, with little snowfall. But a study of winter storms from 1950 to 1998 found that El Nino conditions in the Pacific correlate with a greater frequency of snowstorms of 8 inches or more in Baltimore.

Here's what Sterling forecasters have written on the topic:

"Of the 9 El Niño winters, there were 5 winters with significant snowstorms (8+ inches) and 4 winters without. That is an increased risk to near 1 in 2 chance of a significant snow event.

"El Niño winters tend to be all or nothing. Either you get hardly any snow, as in the case of the last few El Niño events, or you get 150% above normal snowfall with one or in many cases, two or three significant storms."

So, all you snow lovers out there can now have some scientific reason for hope.

(SUN PHOTO/Frank Roylance/WeatherDeck station)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It does take another breed to live in Western Maryland. It's cherry blossom time in the Chesapeake region, but forecasters are still dropping the S-word into their weekend forecast for the far western slopes of the Alleghenies. Is this a great state, or what?

But first, the immediate forecast for us lowlanders.

A look out the window this morning makes it clear that skies are darkening as clouds thicken up and rain approaches. There's a strong cold front draped along the Appalachians, from the Great Lakes to the Gulf, all trailing down from a deep low in Canada. As that front moves our way, the low is drawing warmer, moist air north off the Gulf and the Atlantic, and that spells a deepening cloud cover for us, and rain.

We are already getting some showers at Calvert & Centre this morning, although they have not shown up yet on our rain gauge. Forecasters say they could drop between a tenth- and a quarter-inch today, and a bit more this evening. The front should pass by late this afternoon, stalling well to our south. Look for fog in the morning.

Then the front reverses direction and returns as a warm front late Thursday, bringing another tenth- to a quarter-inch of rain before yet another cold front reaches us Thursday night into Friday morning, perhaps with some thunder.

Then skies begin to clear later on Friday as the front moves by us. But moisture in the air moving up the western slopes of the mountains could fall as a rain/snow mix before ending Saturday morning.

The weekend, at least, still looks great, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s. Showers return late Sunday into Monday.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Maybe this was our Farewell to Winter storm. Parts of St. Mary's, Calvert, Charles and Prince George's counties reported a dusting to a half-inch of snow on unpaved surfaces this morning as a weak storm drifted across the Carolinas and bumped into the dome of cold air to the north.

 Here is the radar loop. Here are some of the reports from the NWS and CoCoRaHS::

Park Hall, St. Mary's County:  0.8 inch 

Waldorf:  0.5 inch

White Plains:  0.3 inch

Salisbury:  0.3 inch

Solomons:  0.2 inch

Lusby:  0.1 inch

There was a bit of snow in the air behind the White House TV reporters this morning. But the best this disturbance could manage across the region was 3 inches in Pendleton County in West Virginia's eastern panhandle. Hightown, in Highland County, Va., reported 3.5 inches.

Temperatures will remain well below normal, with rain for the weekend. Pretty dreary. Good for reading or sitting in a pub. And we won't break out of it until mid-week. Forecasters see a high near 60 degrees on Wednesday.

I think we should hang up the snow shovels for the year; we're through with winter. What we need now is a long, hard rain. And forecasters at Sterling are giving us a 40 percent chance of rain Saturday and Sunday. No good for the St. Patrick's Day Parade, but whatever we get - and they're calling for less than an inch - should be very welcome. BWI has had barely 3 inches since New Year's Day.

Looks like Prof. Foot's prediction of surprise delays for school openings in Southern Maryland today fell short. But there were a few late openings out in west-central Virginia - Nelson, Rappahannock and Page county schools, according to Steve Zubrick, the science officer at Sterling.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

That's March for you. Temperatures have been climbing daily this week, headed for a pleasant weekend in the upper 60s and low 70s. What's left of the snow and ice is surely doomed. But the folks out in Sterling still couldn't resist reminding us that winter has not yet left the continent. More on that in a minute.

First the good news. That big ol' high-pressure system has moved off to the east, but it continues to pump warm, moist air up from the Southwest. That puts us in the path of a warm front that will pass through the region today, driving temperatures noticeably higher. We should be looking at a high this afternoon around 60 degrees. The clouds that moved in this morning are a signal of that warmer, wetter air mass. But they should break a bit this afternoon after the front gets by, warming things even more.

Forecasters think the cold front that would normally follow the warm front will stall to our north, leaving us to enjoy a southwesterly flow and continued warm weather on Saturday and Sunday, with highs near 70 Saturday and perhaps in the mid-70s Sunday.

By late Sunday, however, the front is expected to get moving again, dropping across the region with some showers. Next week looks like it will be cooler than the weekend, but still mild for this time of year, with showers forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.

But then another cold front clears the slate. We'll return to more seasonable temperatures, and computer models foresee a new Great Plains storm racing across the southern U.S. and intensifying off the southeast coast. Says Sterling:

"If the former verifies ... another round of snow will be possible over portions of the forecast area late next week."

You knew it was too good to last.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Hell has frozen over, the cows have come home and Baltimore has had its first snowfall deeper than 5 inches since Feb. 11-12, 2006.

And happily, the story I wrote in December 2007 - about the physiology and hazards of snow shoveling - has finally run, albeit in a much shortened version from the original. It had been held since December 2007 - possibly a new record - in anticipation of the next snowfall deep enough to shovel. That snow - all 5.8 inches of it - finally arrived yesterday.

But as relieved as I am to see the piece in print, I mourn the loss of the last few paragraphs, which once included discussion of improved snow shovel designs, including one of the coolest snow-fighting gizmos I have encountered in a long time: The Wovel. Those paragraphs were lopped off by an editor some weeks ago as we were preparing the story to run in anticipation of another storm. The hole available in the next day's paper simply wasn't big enough to take the whole story as written.

In the end, the storm fizzled, and the story went back into storage, minus the Wovel. And that's the version that ran online Monday, and (even shorter) in the print editions today.

What's a Wovel? First, let me state that I have no financial interest in this thing. I do not own one; I have never used one, and I have spoken with the inventor and owner only once - in December 2007. Can't even remember his name.

But speaking as a science writer, a weather buff, chief shoveler in our household, and a lover of anything that reduces my physical exertions and risks of dropping dead in a snowbank, I think this thing is too cool for school.

Here, my friends, is the Wovel.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Looks like we got our snow. Here's the official forecast. They're talking about another surge of snow, particularly in the Baltimore-Washington corridor, before things wind down late this morning. But there doesn't seem to be much more en route, according to the radar loop.

Here are some NWS accumulation reports from around the region. (Note the times.) And more from volunteer observers.

Here is this morning's discussion from Sterling. And here's the Winter Storm Warning, which remains in effect until 2 p.m.

Let us hear from you, too. I'm especially curious about locations along the bay and south of Baltimore, where totals were supposed to reach 10 inches. Anybody seeing that much? We have 3-4 inches on the WeatherDeck. But it's still coming down.

Looking ahead, the forecasters out at Sterling are expecting a low around 13 degrees tonight at BWI Marshall as cold air continues to pour down from Canada behind the departing storm.  The record low for a March 3 in Baltimore is 12 degrees, set in 1925.

More later.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (16)
Categories: Winter weather
        

There's no sign of it yet out on the WeatherDeck (at 6 p.m.), but light snow has begun falling in Virginia and Annapolis, according to the National Weather Service. Here's the radar loop. And here's the report from Fredericksburg, Va., where it has been snowing since before 4 p.m.

There has been no significant change in the forecast since this morning's post.

The official forecast for BWI calls for 4 to 8 inches of snow at BWI tonight, with 5 to 9 in Annapolis. Frederick is slated for 3 to 7 inches. Salisbury on the Eastern Shore is in line for 2 to 4 inches. Everybody could get a bit more on Monday as the storm pulls away.

The band of heaviest snowfall with this storm will be quite narrow. But within that band the snow can be expected to be quite intense for several hours tonight, forecasters say, with as much as an inch an hour falling at times between 8 p.m. and 3 a.m. Here's abit of this afternoon's forecast discussion:

"FOR AREAS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TO INTERSTATE 95 5 TO 7 INCHES OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. BETWEEN I-95 AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED."

Here's AccuWeather.com on the storm. Their snowfall map still has central Maryland in the 3-to-6-inch range.

Let us know what you're seeing. Heck, it may be another three years before we see another decent snowfall in Baltimore.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (11)
Categories: Winter weather
        

If they're right, it would be the deepest snowfall for Baltimore in more than three years and a record total for the date. Here's the forecast.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Central Maryland from 2 p.m. this afternoon until 2 p.m. Monday as an approaching low-pressure system  reaches the Atlantic coast, intensifies, and clashes with the cold air in place across the region. It covers everybody in Maryland from Frederick County east, and on up the coast through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York City, southern New York and most of southern New England.

Here, the warning calls for 6 to 10 inches of snow before it all ends on Monday. (This morning's dusting came from a separate disturbance, but suggests that conditions are ripe for a snow event.) You can watch the temperature and barometer fall here, on The Sun's weather instruments at Calvert & Centre streets, as the storm approaches.

In contrast to the usual pattern, forecasters expect slightly deeper amounts to the south and east of the I-95 corridor, and lighter totals to the north and west.

Such a total would be the deepest for BWI since a 13-inch accumulation Feb. 11-12, 2006. Prof. Foot seems pretty juiced about this storm. Teachers and students will likely get a break. If we get more than 6 inches before midnight tonight, it will snap the 6-inch record for a March 1 in Baltimore, set in 1952. And if we top 3.7 inches on Monday, it will break a record set here on Mar. 2, 1969.  

AccuWeather.com's snowmap hasn't changed since I last checked. But the NWS forecast would seem to shift the heavier now slightly north and west, including Baltimore more squarely in the heavier accumulations.

Here's this morning's discussion from Sterling. They expect that the heaviest snowfall will occur late today and tonight, followed by light-to-moderate snows tomorrow, with gustier winds blowing it around. Expect sharply colder temperatures Tuesday as winter drops back for a visit in the wake of last week's flirtation with spring.

Okay, readers? NOW what do you think? Fab snow or Flop?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (14)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Well, I'm not going to venture any prognostications about this late-weekend storm that's got everybody buzzing. We've had too many disappointments this winter. But it is my duty, I suppose, to pass along the various forecasts and hypecasts that are taking up so much Web bandwidth today. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

First, the National Weather Service: The forecasters at Sterling have, of course, issued a Winter Storm Watch today. It's in effect from Sunday night through Monday morning. The watch - as all watches must - says 5 inches or more are possible. But that's no guarantee we'll get that much. By the same token, we could get more. The 5-day forecast doesn't suggest much in the way of accumulations. Yet. Here's the latest discussion from Sterling.

The Watch notes that low pressure is developing on the Gulf Coast, and is expected to cross to the Georgia coast, strengthen, and spin up the Atlantic seaboard, throwing lots of moisture onshore, into the cold air that settled over us late yesterday.

For the school kids and teachers hoping for a day off on Monday, I offer Prof. Foot's Forecast. He's looking for 6 to 10 inches to fall from the sky, but says warm surfaces and the late season's high sun angles will likely keep the effective accumulations to 5 inches. He's comparing this storm with one at this same time of year in 2005 that left only 5 inches or less behind.

For hype addicts, there is always AccuWeather.com. Henery "the Madman" Margusity seems to be asleep at the switch today, so here's Elliot Abrams.

Are you truly a weather/snow junkie? Here's the EasternUS weather forum. Somebody there is predicting a foot of snow on the Eastern Shore. Dig in.

And here is the AccuWeather.com snowmap, which seems to show the heaviest accumulations south of Baltimore and on the upper Eastern Shore.

Me? I'm not holding my breath. And The Sun hasn't asked me to dust off the "Physiology of snow shoveling" story that's been on hold since December 2007, waiting for a shovel-worthy storm.

Am I so wrong? What's your prediction? Fab or Flop?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Winter weather
        

There's a cold front pushing across Maryland this morning, and behind it come gusty winds and - for far Western Maryland, at least - a return to winter. The radar loop shows snow coming off the Great Lakes on that cold wind, and sweeping up the western slopes of Maryland's mountain counties. That's Deep Creek in the photo, where it is snowing hard this morning.

The National Weather Service's Pittsburgh office has posted a Winter Storm Warning for Garrett County, calling for 6 to 9 inches of windblown snow by Friday morning, the greatest amounts closer to the ridgetops.

Allegany County is also forecast to get snow today, but slightly less than Garrett.

Down here in the lowlands, we're looking at gradually clearing skies today, with increasingly gusty winds. As the new air mass builds in, we will see cooler temperatures Friday under sunny skies. The promised clipper system will arrive late Saturday, bringing chances for an all-snow event west of I-81, forecasters say. Here to the east we may see rain and/or snow showers, ending Sunday.

From there things clear up again, with sunny skies well into next week. There remains some talk about a storm forming off the coast at mid-week. But there seems to be little certainty about that for the moment.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The forecast hasn't changed much, so there still seems to be little chance that tomorrow's precipitation will bring anything more than a few morning flakes, followed by two days of cold drizzle and showers. 

Today's sunshine will fade as the high pressure drifts off shore, and the storm system that pounded California moves closer out of the west. The center of the storm will pass to our north and west, this time, which leaves us on the warm and rainy side of the picture. And with warmer air moving up from the South behind the departing high and in advance of a cold front, tonight's forecast low is just 31 degrees.

That leaves open the possibility that the precipitation will begin as snow. But sadly, at least for this winter's forlorn snow lovers, forecasters at Sterling say it will not stick. And by mid-morning temperatures will be rising, and it will be changing over to all rain. Here's AccuWeather.com on the dismal forecast.

Once the cold front behind the storm gets through, some western counties could see a brief changeover to snow. But not down here in the lowlands.

Next on the agenda after a sunnier day on Friday is a clipper system out of the northwest on Saturday.  Forecasters are calling for a rain/snow mix. But they don't seem any too sure, even about that.

In the meantime, here is Foot's Forecast on the chances for school openings to be affected tomorrow. (Don't hold your breath, kids.) On the other hand, he points out that it's probably too soon to give up on the season.

Consider this: Five of the 20 biggest snowstorms in Baltimore have occurred in March, but the most recent of them was way back in 1993. Remember the March 1993 "Superstorm?" 

Top 20 Snowstorms in Baltimore: (1891-2006)

Big snows in March seem to be becoming a thing of the past. Here's a list of monthly snow totals for Baltimore. (Now that I've said that, of course, we're in for a whopper!)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The Winter of 2008-09 continues to follow its script this week as yet another winter storm promises to brush the area with a hint of winter, but little of its inconvenience.

Forecasters at Sterling are calling for stubbornly seasonable fare this week, with both high and low temperatures sticking closer to the long-term norms (45 and 26 degrees) for Baltimore. Sunshine will be the rule until late Tuesday, when the high-pressure system now dominating the eastern half of the country moves east, and a new storm approaches from the west.

The center of the low is forming now in the Rocky Mountains. By Wednesday it will pass over the Great Lakes, to our north and west. So the associated cold front will pass by us at mid-week with little to offer but rain. Cold temperatures before daybreak on Wednesday could mean a bit of snow before it all changes to rain. But most of the event is expected to be rain for us. Highs Wednesday will rise well into the 40s.

Rain is okay. Southern Maryland and the southern portion of the Eastern Shore are both running abnormally dry for the first time since mid-December, according to the Drought Monitor.

The rain will continue Thursday as a "chance" of showers. Western counties and higher elevations could see some small accumulations.

Then, high pressure returns as the front passes by. Friday looks sunny. Saturday clouds up, however as a clipper system barrels through with yet another chance for a "wintry mix." Sunday looks sunny again. 

By then we will have passed through what are arguably the snowiest 10 dates of the year without much to write about ... a relief to many, a disappointment to the rest.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The computer models seem, finally, to have sorted out the path of the rain/snow storm that forecasters have been saying would slide by on Saturday. The consensus now is that it will largely fizzle, and pass too far to our south to affect the urban centers, although lower Southern Maryland could still see some precipitation.

That leaves us with a mostly seasonable forecast through the weekend, with sun and clouds and temperatures about average for this time of year - although way cooler than the spring-like air we've enjoyed this week.

After topping out above 50 degrees this afternoon, temperatures will drop below freezing tonight as cold, clear, dry air continues to build into the region behind the departing low that brought us yesterday's wind storm. (The bad hair day at left was in Philly.)

As the high moves off the coast tonight, the storm will approach from the southwest, but the precipitation threat will be held to Central Virginia and far Southern Maryland. We should stay dry.

Sunday looks sunnier, with seasonable temperatures. President's Day will be the coldest of the lot, sunny, but with a high only in the 30s and a low in the lower 20s.

The next chance for precipitation around here comes Wednesday or Thursday, but the storm track, of course, remains uncertain. And forecasters are hedging their bets for now, predicting a rain/snow mix.

But some winter-watchers see the developing scenario as a potential snow-maker for our region, maybe the last chance for a decent snowfall this season. Here's Prof. Foot, of Foot's Forecast, on the subject.

And here's AccuWeather.com's Elliot Abrams' analysis of the storm risk.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Just got a message from "Rex," a reader who has just received his BGE bill, based on a Feb. 9 meter reading. It is not a pretty picture:

"I just looked at my Feb. bill on line (Feb. 9th reading). $748 !!! Jan. was  $366  and last Dec. was  $213. We keep our place at 60 when we're out for the day and 65 when we're home."

Is this even possible? A doubling from January to February? My January reading blew my bill past $320 for the first time, and when I posted my reaction on this blog, it drew plenty of commiseration from around the region.  You can read it here.

If Rex's bill is a harbinger of what the rest of us are in for from the February meter reading, consumer spending in these parts is going to take another hit as we all divert the kids' milk money to pay the gas and electric bill. 

Here's the tricky part: December was relatively mild, at least when compared to the long-term averages for BWI - about 1.8 degrees warmer than the norm. So were the first week or two of January.

But the second half of January - from around the 13th on - was very cold. Only three days topped the daily averages, and nine days dipped to the teens or single digits at night. (Normal lows are 23 or 24 degrees.) February, thankfully, has been very mild so far. But depending on when they read your meter this month, you may be seeing a "February" bill with a hefty chunk of very cold January weather - and steep energy consumption - on it. If so, you can expect a huge hit in your wallet.

It's also true that we're all still absorbing the steep electric and natural gas prices that BGE negotiated way back last summer when energy prices were extraordinarily high. Even though those rates have plummeted since, our bills still reflect the prices BGE built into its wholesale contracts last summer. Ouch!

Sun business reporter Jay Hancock has pointed this out in his stories and blog posts recently, and he's noted that the wholesale rates BGE is passing along in our bills are about to drop, finally reflecting the crash in oil prices and giving us all a break in the coming months.  

In the meantime, the Maryland Public Service Commission has announced it will hold hearings on the crazy BGE bills we're all paying this winter. I'm sure that will make everything okay ...

Anyway, as your bills come in, stop back here and let us feel your pain. Misery loves company.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (18)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Residents of Central Maryland awoke to a snowy surprise this morning as snow showers - some quite heavy for a time - coated roads with a slick fluffy carpet of trouble. Schools have closed or delayed this morning, and there were early road accidents all over the place.

Here's the current radar loop. Here's the story. And here's the official forecast. And here is the report from CoCoRaHS. And from the NWS. Two inches in parts of Howard and Carroll County seems to be the most on the report.

Forecast discussions out of Sterling at 9:30 last night hinted at the possibility of snow overnight. They noted:

"... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PA THAT IS PINWHEELING AROUND THE LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL APPROACH NORTHERN
MARYLAND OVERNIGHT PERHAPS BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. SNOW SHOWERS MAY WHITEN
THE GROUND IN SOME SPOTS MAKING FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT."

Well, they did. The 3 a.m. discussion noted some impressive accumulations from these "snow showers":

"IT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS IN CARROLL COUNTY AS OF 1 AM...AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO SNOW SINCE THEN. FOR PERSPECTIVE...
LANCASTER COUNTY PA REPORTED 8-9 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...IN RATES 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR."

Of course, everybody was asleep as all this was developing. Hence, the wake-up surprise. Clearly the potential significance of this snow threat was largely missed in the forecasts, and Sterling - like the road crews - has been playing catch-up ever since.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Everybody seems to be talking about it now. Forecasters are looking at computer models that predict a powerful storm will spin up out of the Gulf of Mexico early next week and track into the Northeast. The big question appears to be where that track will go. Into the Ohio Valley and we get lots of rain. Up the Atlantic coast and we get a big snowstorm.

Wherever it goes, some meteorologists believe it signals a change in winter weather patterns and a harbinger of a snowier February. Only time will tell, and this event is still assembling itself in the eastern Pacific Ocean. It's still four days out. In the meantime, here's a sampler of the meteorological opinions:

The National Weather Service discussion out of Sterling, noting the disagreement between the two main forecast models (GFS and ECMWF). (I am spelling out the NWS shorthand abbreviations for clarity):

"ALTHOUGH BOTH DEVELOP STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, GFS YIELDS A COASTAL SYSTEM, WHILE ECMWF DEVELOPS CYCLONE INLAND ... WILL FAVOR GFS EVOLUTION [FOR NOW].

"SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG COAST. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS... ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES, COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN SURFACE AND ALOFT. PRECIPITATION TO COMMENCE AS RAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON... EXCEPT HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE COLD AIR WILL INVADE.

"REGARDLESS OF WHETHER GFS OR ECMWF [PROVE CORRECT] IF EITHER/...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT ... WITH SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN GFS, AND RAIN CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT IN ECMWF. BY TUESDAY, COLD AIR INVADES...AND ANY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW."

Here's AccuWeather.com's main piece on the storm, which the eager beavers there are already calling the "Groundhog Day Storm."

Continue reading "Next week's big storm: snow or rain?" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Finally made it to work after scraping the car and sliding down the street on a sheet of ice. Once on the main roads, at least, the traction was fine. The main roads are just wet. But here's a tip:

Before you get on the main roads, scrape or push the snow and ice from your car's roof. There is probably an icy crust on top of the snow up there. And once you hit highway speeds, the wind will get under the ice and launch it into the air. And where it comes down, nobody knows.

I got onto I-695 in Towson this morning and saw at least a half-dozen cars loft ice sheets 10 or 15 feet into the air as they accelerated. These sheets - some the size of, well, car roofs - floated into the air, rotated a few times, then crashed (fortunately) onto the pavement. They could just as easily have landed on the next guy's windshield.

Okay, it's beautiful to watch. I tried (and failed) to find a You Tube video of flying ice. But do us all a favor. Get the snow off your car before you leave your parking space.

Thanks. The Management.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (11)
Categories: Winter weather
        

There will be plenty of scraping and sliding out there this morning. And the freezing mist that's still falling is adding to the glaze on walks and trees. The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until noon from Arundel north and west.

But the radar loop suggests that the worst of the freezing precip may be over here, and what's still falling is keeping mostly to our north. Best of all, there is sunshine and a promise of above-freezing temperatures in the forecast for tomorrow.

Actually, it's already 30 here on the Weatherdeck in Cockeysville. And we should rise into the upper 30s later today, allowing for some slow melting and giving the road salt a chance to work. In the meantime, school kids and teachers across most of Maryland north and west of Arundel get another day off.

You can watch the thermometer rise on The Sun's weather station. Just click here. Doesn't look, at this hour at least, like the barometer has turned upward yet. That will signal the departure of this low and the approach of drier air. For now, the entire Northeast is socked in.

In the meantime we will be shoveling and scraping and walking like penguins on this crusty glaze.

The National Weather Service will be posting overnight low temperatures, and precipitation amounts, and snow and ice accumulations later this morning. Be sure to check the date to make sure they're today's readings. You can also consult CoCoRaHS. The good news is the ice does not seem to have affected the power grid so far.

So far, it appears Waldorf and Bel Air got the most frozen precip in the state, though none of it is too impressive:

Waldorf:  3.3 inches

Bel Air:  3.1 inches

Prince Frederick:  2.8 inches

Long Green:  2.6 inches

Towson:  2.0 inches

Easton:  2.0 inches

Frederick:  1.8 inches

Mt. Airy:  1.7 inches

THE OFFICIAL TALLY FOR BWI:

December: 0.6 inches 

January so far:  2 inches (including 1.8 inches on Tuesday)

Season so far: 2.6 inches

Seasonal average for BWI, 1971-2000: 18.2 inches

Last time we had average snowfall or more: 2005-06:  19.6 inches

So, drop us a note and tell us what you're dealing with on your doorstep, or along your commute this morning. Kids driving you crazy yet? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Have you seen yours, yet? Well, brace yourself. January 2009 is winding up almost 3 degrees colder than the long-term averages for the month at BWI, and it will do serious damage to your utility bills this month.

Mine topped $300 for only the second time since we bought the place 12 years ago. The first time was in February 2007, when temperatures averaged 29.1 degrees. That's about where they stand so far this month - at 29.3 degrees. The 30-year average for January at BWI is 32.3 degrees.

Heating degree-days so far this month are running about 10 percent above the long-term average for January at BWI. Degree days are an estimate of demand for heating energy based on temperature readings. But if you've tried to conserve by turning down the thermostat, or adding insulation, or turning off the lights when you leave a room, you may be doing better than that. 

I'm dealing with what is probably inadequate insulation. My next-door neighbor, whose house was built at the same time as mine, discovered after years of high bills that the builder neglected to install any. Where were the inspectors? I also have a low-efficiency heat pump (more cost-saving by the builder). After this BGE bill, I may need to tackle both of these issues. And soon.

The good news is that temperatures should be returning to seasonal norms by Sunday.

Drop us a comment and tell us what your utility bills are looking like, and what you're doing to save energy, and dollars. Have you switched to compact fluorescents (right)? Has it made a difference?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (28)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The Winter Storm Warning posted for communities north and west of Baltimore (purple on the map)today says those areas could see 3 to 5 inches of snow and sleet before the air warms tonight and tomorrow and turns the stuff to rain. They may even get a quarter-inch of ice on top of the whole mess.

Here's how it reads:

"A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON...A SECOND STRONGER WAVE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET THIS EVENING...BUT A CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY...
ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO FREEZE ON SOME SURFACES.

"TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 3
TO 5 INCHES AND TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH."

Things are not a whole lot prettier for communities south and east of the city (dark blue), where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. Here's the meat of it:

"A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. A SECOND STRONGER WAVE WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET THIS EVENING...BUT A
CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
WARMER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO FREEZE ON SOME
SURFACES.

"TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2
TO 4 INCHES AND TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH."

Here's the regional radar loop. All things considered, if this forecast holds up, I'd guess that today's snow closings may be extended another day, at least in the northern and western suburbs, primarily because of the ice forecast.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (10)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The outlook for snow in the Baltimore region this week is pretty good - good, that is, if you like snow, or at least miss it after almost three years with little worth mentioning. A whole generation of Baltimore kids, after all, has grown to toddlerhood without having experienced a romp in snow worthy of the name.

Anyway, forecasters out at Sterling have put the probabilities for snow at BWI on Tuesday and Wednesday at 70 to 90 percent. Chances have been rising as the forecast intensity of the storm system developing to our west has increased, and its track just to our south has looked more and more favorable for snow. A Tuesday high forecast at 31 degrees should keep the city just barely in all-snow as the storm begins after noon. And a low in the upper 20s on Tuesday night should keep things going as snow. And, there should be plenty of moisture dragged into the system from the Gulf to keep it coming.

But by Tuesday night into Wednesday, things begin to warm a bit, and the likelihood of seeing some rain mixing in seems to grow. Here (in capital letters) is a snippet from the discussion from Sterling forecasters (not me):

"HOWEVER...AS
THE SYSTEM HAS LOOKED INCREASING STRONG...IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT [PRECIPITATION] TYPE WILL BE AS ISSUE...ESPECIALLY AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY OVER VIRGINIA COAST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP SNOW RATIOS LOW AND ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PROBABILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE [FORECAST AREA]...BUT THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL MIX IN RAIN FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF..."

That said, if the forecast holds up, it does seem likely that Tuesday's snow may affect area schools. Wednesday, too, may be affected if the Tuesday accumulations are significant and Wednesday looks like a sloppy mess.

Clearly, locations north and west of the city will face more snow and less rain. Here the Westminster forecast. And here's the much messier Easton forecast.

And here is AccuWeather.com's take on the forecast.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

How did I not hear about this one? Early snowfall out in Garrett in November, followed by busy snow-making at the WISP ski resort, led to an autumn avalanche - okay, a snow slide - perhaps the first ever recorded at the resort. Best of all, it was recorded on video and posted on You Tube.

Fortunately, it was small, and no one was hurt in the incident, which is described by Jon Bell, on his Deep Creek Real Estate blog. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

As the snow continues to pile up, forecasters out at Sterling have issued a Winter Weather Advisory until 10 p.m. for those sections of the Baltimore area in blue on the map. They're now calling for 1 to 2 inches of snow today before things taper off after dark. Says Sterling:

"THIS IS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO
STICK ON SOME ROADS. THIS WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TRAVEL."

UPDATE: We have 2 inches on the WeatherDeck at 2 p.m. in Cockeysville, and it's snowing hard. 

UPDATED UPDATE: At 2:30, snow has mostly stopped here ... for the moment. Temperature stands at 30. 

UPDATING THE UPDATED UPDATE: 3 INCHES EVEN ON THE WEATHERDECK AT 3:10 P.M. STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

Here is the official forecast. Here is the radar loop. And here is the Winter Weather Advisory:

LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...MUCH OF THE
MARYLAND AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED IN WASHINGTON...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF WASHINGTON INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHERN MARYLAND.

Towson has already reported an inch on the ground. Here are some more reports. It's the first measurable snow at BWI since Dec. 6, when they recorded a whopping 0.6 inch.

UPDATE: Here's a 2 p.m. Winter Weather Message from the NWS:

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING.

LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO
INCHES.

WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO STICK ON
SOME ROADS. THIS WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TRAVEL.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS
AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE

Not everyone is getting this snow. Here's the radar image showing where it's been falling. And the regional radar shows it's nearly over.

So how's the driving where you are? Are the streets getting salted? Have you stuck a ruler in the stuff? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (11)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Big fat flakes are falling onto the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville (left) this morning. The temperature is 27 out there at 10:44 a.m., and it's a lovely little snowfall. But unfortunately (or fortunately for some) forecasters don't expect it to amount to much.

The street and walks up here are now snow-covered after about an hour of accumulation. It seems to have leaped ahead of the official forecast, which called for a 70 percent chance of snow, mostly after noon. In all, they're expecting no more than an inch.

Here's the radar loop. 

Here's a clip from this morning's discussion:

"TOTALS GENERALLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MODELS DEVELOP SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN ZONES...VICINITY CHESAPEAKE BAY AND POTOMAC. NEAR DC AND BALTIMORE
METRO AREAS...MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ONE HALF
INCH...DURING AFTERNOON COMMUTE."

Not much, but after so many disappointments this winter, snow-lovers ought to be delighted with seeing flakes in the air, and some whitening on the ground. The neighborhood dogs sure seem happy with it.

In the meantime, that coastal storm that is expected to develop tomorrow off the Carolinas does not appear to be a threat to the urban centers. The storm is forecast to head out to sea, and any snow that's spun off the the north and west is not likely to get beyond the extreme southern and eastern portions of Maryland.

Drop us a comment and let us know what you're seeing out your window. How are the driving/walking conditions? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The chances for the Baltimore region to get some measurable snow this weekend have been increasing this afternoon as forecasters in Sterling, Va. work to sort out the disagreements between their various forecast models.

Officially, the current forecast calls for  a "slight" chance of  snow after midnight Sunday morning. The snow chances bump to 50 percent during the day Sunday, mostly after noon. And they jump again to 60 percent Sunday night and Monday morning. (Sorry kids. It's a holiday anyway. No snow days for you.)

The problem with the forecast is that it's a hedged bet. The computer models are in disagreement, and so forecasters increased their rating of our snow chances as a way to split the difference.

The facts of the case are this: Some models show a developing coastal low off the southeastern coast as the weekend rolls along. With plenty of cold air still in place in the Northeast, that's always cause to think snow. One model sends the storm up the coast, bringing us an increased chance for snow east of the mountains Sunday into Monday. 

But other models don't see it. They predict little or no precipitation from the low, at least for us.

"The diverging solutions add to the uncertainty of this forecast," the Sterling discussion laments. "After much consideration and collaboration, we have decided to increase chances of snow across the [forecast] area ... If [the pro-snow models] are correct some snow accumulation is likely. On the flip side, if the [no-snow models] win out, then little or no snow may occur. We will need to keep a close watch on this system and adjust details as model guidance becomes in better agreement."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Saturday's storm is shaping up to be a classic Maryland wintertime dance with the "rain/snow line."  The Clipper system is rolling across Chicagoland (above) and the upper Midwest along a narrow track that will drop snow across Pennsylvania and southern New England.

But the farther south you look, the wetter the precipitation gets. Snow north. Rain south. But that's where the forecasters out at Sterling begin to waffle.

"There will be a transition band in between," they note in this morning's discussion. "Have limited confidence on exactly where that will be."

For now, the forecast for York, Pa. calls for a snowy night tonight, a snowy morning tomorrow with some rain mixing in later in the day. They can expect 1 to 3 inches.

Westminster is looking at snow after midnight and early tomorrow. Sleet mixes in later contributing to an inch of stuff on the ground. Add rain, change it to snow in the evening.

Down in Salisbury, however, the storm is forecast to generate only rain, beginning on Saturday and  continuing with showers into the evening. A quarter-inch tops.

Baltimore, in the middle of all this, is slated for slop. Rain and sleet in the morning, then freezing rain, then rain after noon. "Little or no ice accumulation," they say. "Little or no snow accumulation."

Just a lousy, cold, wet day.

Uncertainty about where that rain/snow line falls, of course - or, for that matter, where the storm track finally goes - makes much of this a crapshoot. We'll just have to live through it and see.

What we do know is that there is colder air behind the storm. Look for highs in the 30s Sunday and Monday, with sunshine. Then another Clipper will  brush by us with snow showers on Tuesday, if the forecast holds up. Then there's more arctic air to be swept down behind the storm, with Wednesday topping out below freezing, but sunny. Yet another Clipper drops by on Thursday with snow showers, followed by even colder air behind that.

These Clippers make the winter more interesting, for sure. But they typically don't pack a lot of moisture, and consequently don't drop much snow, even if they run right over you. What snow-lovers need is a lot of cold air, followed by a nice coastal low, full of Gulf moisture.

Nothing like that on tap yet.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It appears that snow lovers in Central Maryland will suffer more teases and disappointments this weekend, as forecasters reprise their "wintry mix" forecasts in Saturday's predictions. But there is real winter cold in store for us next week, if the long-range forecast holds. And that could set the stage for actual snow late next week. More in a minute.

For now, we're looking at a few flurries across parts of the Baltimore region. We saw saw flakes on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville this morning, even though air temperatures at the surface were above freezing. Frederick and points north and west also reported some flurries and snow showers this morning. That's Frostburg State at left.

But that will be it for now. The forecasters' real focus is more on Saturday's weather. Today's sunny breaks and blustery winds signal the arrival of high pressure as the recent two-day rain departs to the northeast. That will bring us more sunshine, colder temperatures and gusty winds tomorrow.

But once that high begins to move off the coast late on Friday, clouds will return ahead of the next storm system. The timing remains uncertain, but if the expected "clipper" system arrives early, it will likely start as snow, especially in the usual northern and western suburbs. On the other hand (there's always another hand), temperatures will once again be marginal, so there's a good chance all we'll see will be freezing rain - except, again, near the Mason Dixon Line. Sound familiar?

Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the clipper, which is expected to deal more harshly with Philly and NYC. And here is AccuWeather.com blogger Henry Margusity.

Best to expect that old "wintry mix" on Saturday. But as the low departs and colder air moves in, whatever is falling could switch back to snow before it all ends late Saturday night. Sterling has posted a very tentative "Hazardous Weather Outlook" for Baltimore and its suburbs, noting that "a wintry mix of snow and rain may be possible," changing to rain.

In Western Allegany and Garrett, it's a "Winter Weather Advisory," alerting residents there to the possibility of 1 to 2 inches of accumulation from TODAY's snow showers.

Sunday we start to see more serious cold moving into the region. High pressure moves back on Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. With the cold air, a clipper-type storm could pass by to our north on Monday or Tuesday and leave us a bit of snow, forecasters say. And behind that, even colder air moves down from the arctic. Wednesday's highs may not leave the 20s.

"Cold air will be around through the end of the week," this morning's forecast discussion says. "So any approaching systems would most likely produce snow across the area. Right now, one such system could approach on Friday."

Margusity hinted at a snowstorm "from Virginia to New England." Okay, it's a long way off, an eternity in forecasting terms. But it's the only shred of hope - or fear - Sterling has to offer. 

So let Sterling hear you: Do we want some real snow for the first time in years, and some snow days this month? Or would you rather stay home with a pencil in your eye? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

If I've learned anything doing this weather blog, it's how much the forecasts from Sterling change from hour to hour.

So it shouldn't surprise me that Sterling has taken another look at the forecast. They've folded in new data and computer projections and concluded that conditions tomorrow may be ripe for snow, sleet, freezing rain and a nasty cold rain, but they say now that it won't be as troublesome as they feared this morning.

At least, that is, if you live south of the Mason-Dixon Line. That's where Sterling's turf ends, and forecasters north of the line - in Philly and State College - are always on their own wavelength on these forecasts. 

The PA folks still have Winter Storm Watches posted across much of the state - north of the MD Line. They're looking at enough snow and sleet, changing the rain and freezing rain to cause "significant" problems.

But south of the old boundary (and north and west of Baltimore), we may see similar conditions, but less of it, with mere "travel difficulties". So we get only a Winter Weather Advisory.

Baltimore and the southern portion of Baltimore County have also been removed from the advisory zone. No freezing rain there, they say now (or for points south and east), just rain and sleet, changing to all-rain later in the day Tuesday. Piece of cake.

But still Sterling is hedging its bets. "IF LATER MODELS COME IN COLDER THERE IS STILL TIME TO UP THIS TO A WARNING," they said. Here's how AccuWeather.com sorts it all out.

Here's the radar loop. Headed for New York? Looks like conditions will be better along I-95 than on the western route on I-83 and I-81 through Pennsylvania to I-78 or I-80.

All this, of course, could change as the hours tick by.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The Winter of 2008-09 continues to disappoint snow lovers in Central Maryland. The forecasters out in Sterling are warning of sleet and freezing rain during the next two days, but none of the sort of snowy winter weather (below, in 2003) that delights school kids (and some teachers), but which has eluded us so far this winter.

There is a Winter Storm Watch posted north and west of the I-95 corridor, including Baltimore but not Washington, beginning early Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday morning. Here's the setup:

There's a low-pressure system - a storm - brewing across the Tennessee Valley that's predicted to move north into the Great Lakes tonight. The counter-clockwise flow around the low will draw a lot of wet air north from the Gulf into our region. Here, it will overrun a layer of cold air near the surface. Depending on how cold that surface layer is, and how thick, the rain falling through that colder air will either freeze as it falls, landing as sleet; or, it will freeze on contact with the surface, which we call freezing rain.

Forecasters aren't sure yet how much of which form of precipitation we'll see, or who will get what. But there is at least a potential for as much as a quarter-inch of ice forming on surfaces such as tree branches, utility lines, windshields, railings and sidewalks. "Preparations should be made now for a potentially high-impact winter weather event Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning," the folks in Sterling said.

South and east of I-95, we're likely to see mostly rain or all rain.

However it falls, the moisture will apparently be abundant, with the equivalent of up to an inch of rain possible.

By Wednesday night, forecasters expect we'll be overrun by the next cold front out of the Great Lakes. That will mean clearing skies by Thursday, but it comes with colder temperatures and blustery winds. Thursday night will be the coldest of the week, with lows in the mid-20s.

The next storm system doesn't offer snow lovers much more hope. It's expected to deliver something by Saturday afternoon into Sunday, and the best guessers for the moment are calling it a rain-snow mix.

Sorry, kids.      

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Sure it's cold and blustery. But at least you're not stationed on top of Mt. Washington, in the White Mountains of New Hampshire.

The weather station at the Mt. Washington Observatory there is reporting a temperature of minus-12 degrees this afternoon, with sustained winds of 80 mpg - Cat. 1 hurricane force - gusting to 119 mph. That works out to a wind chill at the summit of minus-54 degrees. No stepping outside for a smoke today.

The place is socked in, but you're welcome to make an armchair visit anytime. Here's their website, with current conditions here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

There was a thin glaze of ice this morning out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. The stair railing was icy, too, but the walks and the streets appeared to have been mostly spared - either because they were still too warm, or treated overnight with salt. Traffic on the way to work was sparse, but moved without difficulty. Here's this morning's ice tally from Sterling. Looks like there was even a dusting of snow to our north and west.

I guess we were spared, especially in light of the nasty weather underway in much of the northern tier of states. Best of all, forecasters out at Sterling are saying these clouds should begin to break up later today, admitting some welcome sunshine after all these days of gloom and rain. Temperatures here at The Sun have already begun to climb above freezing, although the barometer has not yet reversed its dive.

Sunshine would also allow the Winter Solstice program scheduled for the Maryland Science Center this afternoon to include planned eye-safe observations of the sun with the historic Alvin Clark telescope (left). The solstice programs begin at noon. The observatory opens at 1 p.m. (Call 410 545-5940 for more information).

Today is, after all, the date of the winter solstice. At 7:04 this morning the sun ended its long drift toward the south and paused before beginning its return toward Earth's Northern Hemisphere. From here, days begin to grow longer, and the nights shorter. We have already passed the date (Dec. 7) of the earliest sunset. The latest sunrise occurs on Jan. 4.

For some cultures, today was not the beginning of winter, but its mid-point. From here, the days grow longer with a promise of spring and renewed life. It was a time for celebration, and merry-making. There was noisemaking to scare away the evils of winter and deprivation, and bonfires to chase away the dark and bring back light and warmth. That strategy seems to have failed in Seattle this weekend.

I prefer the notion of solstice as mid-winter. The "beginning of winter" suggests we have a long, hard slog ahead. Mid-winter suggests progress and hope. How about you?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Go early, or go late. That seems to be the best advice for Holiday travel next week. The 7-day forecast this morning out of Sterling calls for rainy weather for the weekend, with a risk of some icing to our north and west. And Wednesday looks like more rain. So, if you want mostly sunny skies for the ride to Grandma's house, the best days for travel look like Monday and Tuesday. Or, if you haven't far to go, make the trip on Christmas Day.

The long-range forecast from Sterling calls for a sunny Christmas in Baltimore, with a high temperature of 39 degrees under sunny skies. Monday and Tuesday should be mostly sunny, too, but cold, with highs only in the low 30s, and overnight lows Monday into Tuesday in the teens.

But there's a lot of rain ahead before the new week begins.

Forecasters are looking through today's murky weather and calling for up to a quarter-inch of rain as a low-pressure system rides quickly along a cold front now draped along the Mason-Dixon Line. We are on the warm side of the front for now, so today will be the mildest day of the next seven, with a high around 45 degrees.

That means we'll see all rain from this initial storm. You can track the rainfall and watch the barometer fall at The Sun's weather station at Calvert & Centre streets. Winds may pick up late today as the low zips by just to our north and heads out to sea. Upstate PA and NY and New England will get some snow out of this, but we're looking and plain rain. That's AccuWeather.com's snow map at right.

After the low passes, temperatures will start to fall. There could be some flakes in the far western counties, but not here, forecasters say.

Saturday and Sunday will feel more like Christmas, with highs only in the 30s. The cold front will hold to our south, and the next low will track along that line to the NC/VA border and deepen offshore. That will bring us cloudy skies Saturday, and more precipitation very early Sunday morning. Forecasters insist we'll see rain, with the only risk of something frozen along the (east-west leg of the) Mason-Dixon Line, again, as well as the higher elevations to our west. Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the parade of storms.

So we escape winter again, for now. Once the weekend storm clears, we're looking at colder, drier weather for a couple of days - time to make your break for Grandma's place. Monday night into Tuesday will be the coldest time of the coming week, with lows in the teens at BWI.

For Wednesday, forecasters are spotting another low, bringing a 50 percent chance for more rain. But again, no frozen precip. here. Christmas Day should be sunny and bright.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Forecast models are now showing the air over Maryland will simply be too warm for the Saturday/Sunday storm to deliver any of the snow, sleet and freezing rain forecast earlier today.

Looks like an all-rain event for the Baltimore region. Here's the discussion.

Worse, next week's storm looks like rain, too. Forecasters are now dreaming of a wet Christmas.

Sorry about that. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Ya gotta love a weather forecaster with a sense of humor. Okay, he's not Steve Martin (a former TV weatherman, and he played one in "L.A. Story"), but he does have a wry sense of impending doom as he looks as a wintry weekend forecast:

"If you don't like winter weather," forecaster Andy Woodcock said from Sterling this morning, "might be a good time to call your favorite airline and get that ticket to Miami."

Here's what he's looking at: A cold front is due to cross the region late Friday into Saturday, dropping temperatures here below freezing Saturday night. Then, the front stalls in the Carolinas, and a low-pressure system starts tracking along the front, reforming off the Carolina coast. That is, Woodcock says, "a very classic" setup for wintry weather in the Washington/Baltimore area. Here's more from this morning's discussion:

"KEEP YOUR EYE ON LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT MAY BE
UNFOLDING DURING THIS TIME. GFS (COMPUTER MODEL) IS GETTING CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A VERY CLASSIC PORTION FOR WINTER WEATHER IN THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS WEST. IAD (DULLES) FORECAST MAX TEMP OF 33 IS DOWN A DEGREE VERSUS YESTERDAYS MEX MAX GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AND IT WILL START OFF BELOW FRZG TO START THE EVENT.

"AGAIN...STAY TUNED."

So far, the 7-day forecast for BWI-Marshall is talking about rain AND snow for the Saturday night and Sunday period, with overnight temperatures at BWI in the upper 20s, rising into the low 30s Sunday. If we do get snow, it looks like wet snow, possibly changing to rain as temperatures rise. We'll see. 

AccuWeather.com, meanwhile, sees this storm as just the start of a succession of nasty storm systems that will be moving across the contiment in the next week or more - any of which could bring us wintry misery (or joy!) as the Holiday travel season begins. Here's more.

For now, we're well out of the winter weather woods today as temperatures rise into the 40s. Thursday looks mostly cloudy, with rain likely again Thursday night and Friday as the new cold front approaches.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Although the cold front has passed to our south, dropping temperatures from the 60s we enjoyed yesterday, the cold air is taking its time rolling in. But we've probably already seen our warmest temperatures for the day. Forecasters think they'll be dropping this afternoon, and as the rain picks up, counties north and west of the urban corridor may still see some icing conditions around rush hour this evening. Here's the radar loop.

"Not quite confident that the quarter inch of ice will be realized," the folks at Sterling said this morning. But "cold air should settle right along the MD/PA border this afternoon and overnight. Think these areas have the best potential to see some icing and snow/sleet accumulation (especially during the rush hour)."

UPDATE: It's 30 and snowing at Hagerstown; 39 with light rain and falling temperatures at Baltimore at 1:30 p.m.

UPDATE 9:26 p.m.: Here are some winter weather reports from around the region.     

A Hazardous Weather Outlook is posted for the Baltimore area, noting the risk of icing in northern Baltimore County. There is a Winter Weather Advisory up for Carroll and Frederick counties, with mention of snow and ice overnight tonight. The western counties are under a Winter Storm Warning, with up to a quarter-inch of ice and an inch or two or snow on top of that.

 Wednesday should bring all-rain across the region as low pressure systems track along the front. But the precip will be diminishing. Thursday looks like more of the same, but Friday should see some warming - into the 60s again ahead of the NEXT cold front. That one, early Friday, could bring more rain or snow showers, and return daytime temperatures to the 40s, where they belong this time of year.

Saturday could bring drier weather , with some sunshine peeking through. But Sunday, forecasters say, could be "a washout," with temperatures - and precipitation types - on the borderline. If the models are correct, they're saying, "it is not going to be a pretty day."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Hard to believe after today's highs in the 60s, but ... The National Weather Service has posted a nasty menu of winter weather advisories, watches and warnings for counties north and west of Baltimore as the cold air that has clobbered the Plains states with nasty weather over the weekend begins to edge into Maryland in the next few days.

Howard, Montgomery, Carroll, Frederick and Washington counties are under a Hazardous Weather Outlook for tonight, tomorrow and Wednesday morning. Freezing rain mixed with sleet is due late tonight in the Allegenies, with some ice accumulation possible.

Icing could increase to a quarter-inch on Tuesday, forecasters said, especially west of the Blue Ridge and parts of north-central Maryland. That has prompted issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday evening through Wednesday for Frederick and Carroll counties.

Way out west in Garrett, folks are under a Winter Storm Watch issued by the NWS forecasters in Pittsburgh. They'll looking for freezing rain, sleet and snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday as the cold front moves in. 

Down here along the Chesapeake, we're told to expect much colder temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs only in the 40s. But it's still a rain-only forecast for us. We reached a notable high of 67 degrees this afternoon at BWI, about 20 degrees above the long-term average for the date. Notable, but short of the record 70 degrees set on Dec. 15, 1971.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It won't be much. But forecasters at Sterling NOW are warning that this rain could turn to snow just before rush hour Friday morning around Baltimore. It's not likely to accumulate much on the roads. But a burst of heavy snow showers here and there could stick just long enough to slick the roads as commuters are heading out.

I'm betting that will spook some school systems - especially north and west of I-95 - just enough to delay openings. We'll see.

But it's a tough call. Forecasters have been struggling all week with this complex and powerful storm system. And pinning down the rain/sleet/snow line in central Maryland has always been a winter challenge.

Earlier forecasts today seemed to downplay the risk of wintry precipitation to Baltimore and Washington. The tone seems to have changed tonight.

Here's part of this evening's discussion from Sterling:

"FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. WESTERN EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL HAVE MOVED EAST...BUT THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH NOW /WHICH PRODUCED SNOW OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
TODAY/ WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

"UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY WEAKEN ... BUT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ... ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE MTNS. SNOW IS THE PREFERRED P-TYPE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THERE /EXCEPT FOR ALL RAIN IN
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND/.

"AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHT SNOWFALL
NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE WASHINGTON...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. RECALL THAT [Sterling] NOW ISSUES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES DURING HIGH IMPACT TIMES /IE RUSH HOUR
TIMES/ WHEN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

"AN INCH OF SNOW IS NOW FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON ... ACCUMULATIONS WOULD MAINLY BE ON NON-PAVED SURFACES /GRASS...CARS...ETC/ WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 30S...BUT IF THE SNOW COMES DOWN HARD
ENOUGH IN A BURST THEN ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A SLOPPY
ACCUMULATION ON SOME ROADS."

However it falls, it is plenty of water. Here are the storm's total accumulation estimates, based on radar returns.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The results are still coming in, but Taneytown, out in Carroll County, appears to have won the Dec. 6 metro area snow sweepstakes this morning with a whopping 1 inch of the white death. Here is a tally from CoCoRaHS.

Columbia, Severn, Frederick, even Hamilton in northeast Baltimore City also put in good performances with a half-inch or more. Good, that is, for a teeny first-snow-of-the-season-to-actually-accumulate. The official total for BWI on the 6th was 0.6 inch.

In case you missed it in the previous post, reader "Wayne" has made an astute observation with regard to our Dec. 5 snowfalls in Baltimore. We have been writing about the odd fact that BWI has recorded at least a trace of snow on four of the last five Dec. 5ths. The string of coincidences failed in 2004, and it appeared to have failed again this year, with no snow noted at BWI on Friday.

But Wayne noted that this is a Leap Year. so we had an extra day in February. So maybe that delayed our customary Dec. 5 flakes by one calendar day. And since 2004, too, was a Leap Year, perhaps we can apply the Wayne Hypothesis to that year, as well. In that case, we have now seen snow at BWI on Dec. 5 (or Dec. 6th in Leap Years) for six years in a row.

Actually, a longer look at the records this morning adds a seventh year to the string. BWI recorded 7.4 inches on Dec. 5, 2002. 

That's Mr. Owl on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville this morning, at left. And here's the list of Dec. 5/6 snowfalls at BWI:

2008:  Dec. 6 - 0.6 inch

2007:  Dec. 5 - 4.7 inches

2006:  Dec. 5 - Trace

2005:  Dec. 5 - 1.4 inches

2004:  Dec. 6 -  Trace

2003:  Dec. 5 -  0.85 inch

2002:  Dec. 5 -  7.4 inches

I like that. Of course it's nonsense. Coincidence. But so what? Enjoy the dusting. And if you're headed for the stadium tonight, dress for the wind and cold.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Colder-than-average weather today continues to lay the groundwork for the arrival of some wintry weather this weekend, and again toward the middle and end of next week, forcasters say.

None of it seems likely to amount to much, although it may be an annoyance. And there remains considerable confusion and uncertainty among the long-range models as they try to sort out what's in store for next week.

But for the moment, the forecasters out at Sterling are calling for more cold temperatures today and tomorrow - 5 to 10 degrees below the long-term averages for BWI. That means a high today only around 40 degrees. The average for this date at BWI-Marshall is 49. Nightime lows will drop into the 20s.

The cold is the result of Canadian high pressure, which has arrived with clear skies and lots of radiational cooling at night. The high will hang around through most of Saturday, and temps will stick in the upper 30s.

But by Saturday night, the high will be moving off the east coast, making way for somewhat warmer, wetter air in the return flow in the clockwise circulation around the back side of the high.

Then the first storm moves in from the Great Lakes. We'll see clouds first, then the first shot at some snow after sunset, if the forecast holds up. Overnight lows on Saturday/Sunday will drop below freezing at BWI. Southern Maryland is more likely to see rain. But in the higher elevations it will be snow, forecasters say in this morning's discussion from Sterling.

"However, there is a chance for light snowfall accumulations to occur further east of the mountains, including the Baltimore Washington metro area," they said. They're rating the chance for snow here at 50 percent Saturday night and 20 percent Sunday.

Sunday looks cloudy at first, with highs hanging in the upper 30s. Then colder air will move in with gusty winds. Skies will begin to clear and temperatures will drop Sunday night into the low 20s. If you're going to the stadium, dress for winter.

Monday's highs will hold in the mid-30s, more than 10 degrees below the average for the date.

Looking ahead into next week, the forecasters see model projections all over the place. Here's AccuWeather.com's blogger Henry Margusity's foggy crystal ball. Most of the models seem to be predicting two storms - one in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, the second late in the week. The folks at Sterling say "Storm A" is most likely going to bring Baltimore some rain.

"However, with the first wave, if precipitation moves into the [forecast area] late Monday night into Tuesday morning, then a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain may be possible at the onset before the bulk of the precipitation would turn to rain," their morning discussion says. The chance for precip is set at 60 percent.

As for "Storm B," they're saying, "If this wave tracks south of the area, some wintry precipitation may be possible. ... Needless to say, details will need to be resolved/fine tuned with time as we move closer to the middle of next week."

The big picture seems to be that while there is nothing especially notable about any of this, December does seem to be shaping up as a relatively cold and wet start for this winter's weather. And that is pretty much what the seasonal forecasters said during the fall: wintry December, giving way to a milder January, then shifting back to more wintry experience sometime in February.

We'll see.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather