Last week I wrote a brief comment on the print weather page about the early snowstorm that paralyzed Baltimore back on Nov. 6-7, 1953. I wondered if anyone would remember the storm, which was the earliest "heavy" (four inches or more) snowfall in Baltimore weather records.

This week I received the following note from Joan Parr, who clearly did. She writes:

"Mr. Roylance:

"If my memory serves me right, the storm you mentioned in your blog (on Friday, Nov. 6. 2009)  was indeed a traffic-snarler.  Drivers acted as if they had never seen snow before, and they just kept moving, right into intersections, creating gridlock. 

"This storm was, I believe, the impetus for Baltimore City to lure Henry Barnes away from Denver to come and make sense of our streets and traffic lights.  He did a very good job; one of his legacies which still exist in Baltimore is the "Barnes Dance,"  where all vehicular traffic is stopped and pedestrians are free to walk across the streets unobstructed by cars and trucks.

"Thank you for the reminder of that storm.    Joan K. Parr "   

(SUN PHOTO/Nov. 6, 1953/Cecil County)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

I missed this when it appeared last week. Some kind of problem with my "Favorites" list. Anyway, Mr. Foot, a Baltimore County science teacher and Maryland weather watcher much-consulted by county teachers and students eager for a snow break in winter time, is forecasting a "smackdown" storm here by mid-month.

Says he:

"I've maintained a position that the atmosphere is primed and ready to deliver, all we wait for now is "Only Time." I realize we haven't dug out the Thanksgiving decorations yet, but I can't resist the urge to tell you that before long, we will be reveling in the sight of "White in the Winter Night."

Here's the sequence for his early-season prognostications:

* 11/01-09: A mild to cool period then brief warmup

 * 11/10-15: Possible outbreak of Arctic air on or before 11/15

 * In same week, a "smackdown" storm with snow at the onset

 * 11/15-25: "yo-yo" period of below then above-normal temps

 * 11/25-12/5: Seasonal temps leading to kickoff event by 12/5.

To read the rest of his forecast, visit his blog, here.

(SUN PHOTO/David Hobby/McHenry, Md., October 2006)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

I know it's too early in the season to be amusing readers with winter weather data. But the National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling has posted a compendium of winter weather facts for Baltimore, Washington and Dulles Airport, and it's a fun read if you're into Baltimore's annual love/hate relationship with snow, cold and ice.

For example:

1. What was the iciest winter in recent Baltimore weather history?

2. How many of the deepest snowstorms in Baltimore have occurred since your Weather Blogger moved here from Massachusetts in 1980? Is that my fault?

3. What was the snowiest month in Baltimore history?

4. How long has it been since Baltimore (BWI) experienced sub-zero temperatures? How many times have we dipped below zero since 1960?

5. How many times per winter, on average, does Baltimore get a snowfall of 4 inches or more?

For answers to these questions and more, click here. There's more here. And you can contemplate the role of El Nino in Baltimore winters, here.

(SUN PHOTO/Mark Bugnaski/Ice storm, Baltimore, January 1994)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

If AccuWeather.com's chief meteorologist is right, Maryland is in for the coldest, snowiest winter we've seen since the memorable - and snow-choked - winter of 2002-2003.

A "fading" El Nino, and a shift to a warm phase of the "Pacific Decadal Oscillation" will combine with "other factors," Joe Bastardi said, to shift the worst of this winter's weather from the Midwest, where it was concentrated last winter, to the mid-Atlantic states.

(Others, including meteorologist Joe D'Aleo, former director of meteorology at The Weather Channel, note that this "shift" in the PDO is a temporary "spike" that will quickly reverse, and the PDO will resume its much longer "cool phase.")

Bastardi did not hestitate to predict Baltimore's winter for us. "Twenty-five inches at BWI, and 2.7 degrees below normal," he said, placing his bets on the season's total snowfall at the airport and the average temperature for the winter at BWI.

Bastardi's early winter forecast, out this morning, is among the first of the season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue its first winter forecast on Thursday morning.

The average snowfall for Baltimore for the 30-year period from 1971 to 2000 was 18.2 inches, and we've only topped that once since the big snows of 2002-03, and even then it was by less than an inch-and-a-half.

And Bastardi isn't predicting anything like the 58 inches the airport recorded that year. But, a snow total of 25 inches this winter would seem like a lot of snow after six winters in a row with less. The last two winters combined produced less than 18 inches of snow.

On the other hand, he said, "It has the potential to get there [55 inches]; don't get me wrong."

Among the "other factors" he takes into account, in addition to El Nino and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, are the prevailing weather conditions and how they compare with past winters - winter analogs. Looking at those, he sees similarities between this year's patterns and those that prevailed during the winters of 1976-77, which was very cold, and 1977-78, which saw 34 inches of snow at BWI. 

He also saw a resemblance to the winter of 1957-58, which brought 43 inches of snow to Baltimore and very wintry weather in February and March. Another "analog" he includes in his "package" is the winter of 1965-66, with 32 inches of snow.

"There are some very heavy hitters coming to the plate," Bastardi said.

His seasonal forecast predicts that cities such as Boston, New York and Philadelphia will get above-normal snowfall, with 75 percent of it coming in two or three big storms. Snowfall in parts of the Appalachians could total 50 to 100 inches. Areas from Atlanta to Charlotte could also see snow this year as the storm track brings wintry weather across the South and up the Eastern Seaboard, with nor'easters from Hatteras to New Jersey.

As for when the bad weather will hit Maryland, Bastardi thinks it will get off to a late start. "I would say that we will remember more what happens in January and February than in December." He predicts a "threat of 30 to 45 days of outstanding winter weather, with two or three snowstorms and temperatures averaging more than five degrees below normal for two or three weeks in the heart of winter."

He noted that this year's early October snowfall in central Pennsylvania is a reminder of similar early snows in October 2002, and in other winters in his analog "package."

"All those winters have the same characteristics," he said.

So what was Bastardi's October forecast for last winter?

"One of the coldest winters in several years across much of the East," he said through Ken Reeves, a co-author on that forecast a year ago this month. And snowfall? "Probably somewhere in the mid- to upper-teens. Maybe around 20 inches," he said, with an early "rude slap" coming in December.

We ended the winter with 9.1 inches of snow for the season, and temperatures 2 degrees above normal. December, too, was almost 2 degrees warmer than normal, with just 0.6 inch of snow. No "rude slap."

(SUN PHOTO/Karl Merton Ferron/February 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (25)
Categories: Winter weather
        

From the brains of AccuWeather.com archivists comes the following insight: In years past, when American presidents have been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, the following winters have been cold and snowy in the Northeast.

Not sure what the science behind this phenomenon could possibly be. Coincidence, maybe?

Whatever, here's the short version:

1906: Theodore Roosevelt wins the award. The winter of 1906-1907 brings a severe February nor'easter to the coast and as much as 10 inches of snow between Feb. 4 and 6.

1919: Woodrow Wilson wins the Nobel, and January 1920 brings ice, sleet and snow to the Northeast. In February, 4-7, heavy snow drops from Maine to Virginia.

2002: Jimmy Carter wins the Nobel Peace Prize, and the winter of 2002-2003 brings the Feb. 14-19 storm that dumped 15 to 30 inches along the East Coast. Baltimore is buried in 28.2 inches, the deepest snowfall on record for the city.

You can read the entire cockamamie AccuWeather.com release here. But why would you bother?

AccuWeather is expected to release its forecast for this winter on Wednesday. Their hint: "Preliminary reports predict a cold and snowy winter for the Northeast."

(SUN PHOTO/Algerina Perna/February 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Take El Nino, a burst of volcanic activity and an unusually cool summer (so far) in the Northeast, and what do you get? AccuWeather.com says it's beginning to look a lot like an unusually cold and snowy winter ahead for the mid-Atlantic states.

I'm not sure I buy it. But AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi, is out today with the very-long-range forecast, and it makes for some good reading:

"The areas that will be hit hardest this winter by cold, snowy weather will be from New England through the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, including North Carolina. Areas from New York City to Raleigh have gotten by the past two years with very little snowfall. This year these areas could end up with above-normal snowfall."

"The overall weather pattern that has prevailed this summer is pointing to a winter very similar to that of 2002-03, when major cities on the East Coast had above-average snowfall. Expert Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity points out that in February of 2003, a major snowstorm paralyzed much of the Interstate 95 corridor, including New York City and Philadelphia. During the storm, airports were closed, roads were impassable, roofs collapsed and some schools were closed for a week, causing summer vacations to start late."

For the record, Baltimore had its deepest snowfall on record, and its snowiest February in 2003. That winter was also the second snowiest on record for the city.

If you're feeling hot on this 88-degree afternoon in downtown Baltimore, you can read more of AccuWeather's forecast, here.

(SUN PHOTO/Algerina Perna February 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has noted that sea surface conditions in the Pacific Ocean are evolving this spring away from the current "neutral" temperature pattern toward a new warm phase, also known as El Nino. And for us, El Ninos mean an increased likelihood of large snowfalls in the following winter.

For the last two winters we have been in a "La Nina," or the cool phase of what is known formally as the El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. And we have experienced unusually mild and dry winters, with little snowfall. But a study of winter storms from 1950 to 1998 found that El Nino conditions in the Pacific correlate with a greater frequency of snowstorms of 8 inches or more in Baltimore.

Here's what Sterling forecasters have written on the topic:

"Of the 9 El Niño winters, there were 5 winters with significant snowstorms (8+ inches) and 4 winters without. That is an increased risk to near 1 in 2 chance of a significant snow event.

"El Niño winters tend to be all or nothing. Either you get hardly any snow, as in the case of the last few El Niño events, or you get 150% above normal snowfall with one or in many cases, two or three significant storms."

So, all you snow lovers out there can now have some scientific reason for hope.

(SUN PHOTO/Frank Roylance/WeatherDeck station)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It does take another breed to live in Western Maryland. It's cherry blossom time in the Chesapeake region, but forecasters are still dropping the S-word into their weekend forecast for the far western slopes of the Alleghenies. Is this a great state, or what?

But first, the immediate forecast for us lowlanders.

A look out the window this morning makes it clear that skies are darkening as clouds thicken up and rain approaches. There's a strong cold front draped along the Appalachians, from the Great Lakes to the Gulf, all trailing down from a deep low in Canada. As that front moves our way, the low is drawing warmer, moist air north off the Gulf and the Atlantic, and that spells a deepening cloud cover for us, and rain.

We are already getting some showers at Calvert & Centre this morning, although they have not shown up yet on our rain gauge. Forecasters say they could drop between a tenth- and a quarter-inch today, and a bit more this evening. The front should pass by late this afternoon, stalling well to our south. Look for fog in the morning.

Then the front reverses direction and returns as a warm front late Thursday, bringing another tenth- to a quarter-inch of rain before yet another cold front reaches us Thursday night into Friday morning, perhaps with some thunder.

Then skies begin to clear later on Friday as the front moves by us. But moisture in the air moving up the western slopes of the mountains could fall as a rain/snow mix before ending Saturday morning.

The weekend, at least, still looks great, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60s. Showers return late Sunday into Monday.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Maybe this was our Farewell to Winter storm. Parts of St. Mary's, Calvert, Charles and Prince George's counties reported a dusting to a half-inch of snow on unpaved surfaces this morning as a weak storm drifted across the Carolinas and bumped into the dome of cold air to the north.

 Here is the radar loop. Here are some of the reports from the NWS and CoCoRaHS::

Park Hall, St. Mary's County:  0.8 inch 

Waldorf:  0.5 inch

White Plains:  0.3 inch

Salisbury:  0.3 inch

Solomons:  0.2 inch

Lusby:  0.1 inch

There was a bit of snow in the air behind the White House TV reporters this morning. But the best this disturbance could manage across the region was 3 inches in Pendleton County in West Virginia's eastern panhandle. Hightown, in Highland County, Va., reported 3.5 inches.

Temperatures will remain well below normal, with rain for the weekend. Pretty dreary. Good for reading or sitting in a pub. And we won't break out of it until mid-week. Forecasters see a high near 60 degrees on Wednesday.

I think we should hang up the snow shovels for the year; we're through with winter. What we need now is a long, hard rain. And forecasters at Sterling are giving us a 40 percent chance of rain Saturday and Sunday. No good for the St. Patrick's Day Parade, but whatever we get - and they're calling for less than an inch - should be very welcome. BWI has had barely 3 inches since New Year's Day.

Looks like Prof. Foot's prediction of surprise delays for school openings in Southern Maryland today fell short. But there were a few late openings out in west-central Virginia - Nelson, Rappahannock and Page county schools, according to Steve Zubrick, the science officer at Sterling.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

That's March for you. Temperatures have been climbing daily this week, headed for a pleasant weekend in the upper 60s and low 70s. What's left of the snow and ice is surely doomed. But the folks out in Sterling still couldn't resist reminding us that winter has not yet left the continent. More on that in a minute.

First the good news. That big ol' high-pressure system has moved off to the east, but it continues to pump warm, moist air up from the Southwest. That puts us in the path of a warm front that will pass through the region today, driving temperatures noticeably higher. We should be looking at a high this afternoon around 60 degrees. The clouds that moved in this morning are a signal of that warmer, wetter air mass. But they should break a bit this afternoon after the front gets by, warming things even more.

Forecasters think the cold front that would normally follow the warm front will stall to our north, leaving us to enjoy a southwesterly flow and continued warm weather on Saturday and Sunday, with highs near 70 Saturday and perhaps in the mid-70s Sunday.

By late Sunday, however, the front is expected to get moving again, dropping across the region with some showers. Next week looks like it will be cooler than the weekend, but still mild for this time of year, with showers forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday.

But then another cold front clears the slate. We'll return to more seasonable temperatures, and computer models foresee a new Great Plains storm racing across the southern U.S. and intensifying off the southeast coast. Says Sterling:

"If the former verifies ... another round of snow will be possible over portions of the forecast area late next week."

You knew it was too good to last.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Hell has frozen over, the cows have come home and Baltimore has had its first snowfall deeper than 5 inches since Feb. 11-12, 2006.

And happily, the story I wrote in December 2007 - about the physiology and hazards of snow shoveling - has finally run, albeit in a much shortened version from the original. It had been held since December 2007 - possibly a new record - in anticipation of the next snowfall deep enough to shovel. That snow - all 5.8 inches of it - finally arrived yesterday.

But as relieved as I am to see the piece in print, I mourn the loss of the last few paragraphs, which once included discussion of improved snow shovel designs, including one of the coolest snow-fighting gizmos I have encountered in a long time: The Wovel. Those paragraphs were lopped off by an editor some weeks ago as we were preparing the story to run in anticipation of another storm. The hole available in the next day's paper simply wasn't big enough to take the whole story as written.

In the end, the storm fizzled, and the story went back into storage, minus the Wovel. And that's the version that ran online Monday, and (even shorter) in the print editions today.

What's a Wovel? First, let me state that I have no financial interest in this thing. I do not own one; I have never used one, and I have spoken with the inventor and owner only once - in December 2007. Can't even remember his name.

But speaking as a science writer, a weather buff, chief shoveler in our household, and a lover of anything that reduces my physical exertions and risks of dropping dead in a snowbank, I think this thing is too cool for school.

Here, my friends, is the Wovel.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Looks like we got our snow. Here's the official forecast. They're talking about another surge of snow, particularly in the Baltimore-Washington corridor, before things wind down late this morning. But there doesn't seem to be much more en route, according to the radar loop.

Here are some NWS accumulation reports from around the region. (Note the times.) And more from volunteer observers.

Here is this morning's discussion from Sterling. And here's the Winter Storm Warning, which remains in effect until 2 p.m.

Let us hear from you, too. I'm especially curious about locations along the bay and south of Baltimore, where totals were supposed to reach 10 inches. Anybody seeing that much? We have 3-4 inches on the WeatherDeck. But it's still coming down.

Looking ahead, the forecasters out at Sterling are expecting a low around 13 degrees tonight at BWI Marshall as cold air continues to pour down from Canada behind the departing storm.  The record low for a March 3 in Baltimore is 12 degrees, set in 1925.

More later.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (16)
Categories: Winter weather
        

There's no sign of it yet out on the WeatherDeck (at 6 p.m.), but light snow has begun falling in Virginia and Annapolis, according to the National Weather Service. Here's the radar loop. And here's the report from Fredericksburg, Va., where it has been snowing since before 4 p.m.

There has been no significant change in the forecast since this morning's post.

The official forecast for BWI calls for 4 to 8 inches of snow at BWI tonight, with 5 to 9 in Annapolis. Frederick is slated for 3 to 7 inches. Salisbury on the Eastern Shore is in line for 2 to 4 inches. Everybody could get a bit more on Monday as the storm pulls away.

The band of heaviest snowfall with this storm will be quite narrow. But within that band the snow can be expected to be quite intense for several hours tonight, forecasters say, with as much as an inch an hour falling at times between 8 p.m. and 3 a.m. Here's abit of this afternoon's forecast discussion:

"FOR AREAS FROM THE BLUE RIDGE TO INTERSTATE 95 5 TO 7 INCHES OF
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING. BETWEEN I-95 AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED."

Here's AccuWeather.com on the storm. Their snowfall map still has central Maryland in the 3-to-6-inch range.

Let us know what you're seeing. Heck, it may be another three years before we see another decent snowfall in Baltimore.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (11)
Categories: Winter weather
        

If they're right, it would be the deepest snowfall for Baltimore in more than three years and a record total for the date. Here's the forecast.

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Central Maryland from 2 p.m. this afternoon until 2 p.m. Monday as an approaching low-pressure system  reaches the Atlantic coast, intensifies, and clashes with the cold air in place across the region. It covers everybody in Maryland from Frederick County east, and on up the coast through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York City, southern New York and most of southern New England.

Here, the warning calls for 6 to 10 inches of snow before it all ends on Monday. (This morning's dusting came from a separate disturbance, but suggests that conditions are ripe for a snow event.) You can watch the temperature and barometer fall here, on The Sun's weather instruments at Calvert & Centre streets, as the storm approaches.

In contrast to the usual pattern, forecasters expect slightly deeper amounts to the south and east of the I-95 corridor, and lighter totals to the north and west.

Such a total would be the deepest for BWI since a 13-inch accumulation Feb. 11-12, 2006. Prof. Foot seems pretty juiced about this storm. Teachers and students will likely get a break. If we get more than 6 inches before midnight tonight, it will snap the 6-inch record for a March 1 in Baltimore, set in 1952. And if we top 3.7 inches on Monday, it will break a record set here on Mar. 2, 1969.  

AccuWeather.com's snowmap hasn't changed since I last checked. But the NWS forecast would seem to shift the heavier now slightly north and west, including Baltimore more squarely in the heavier accumulations.

Here's this morning's discussion from Sterling. They expect that the heaviest snowfall will occur late today and tonight, followed by light-to-moderate snows tomorrow, with gustier winds blowing it around. Expect sharply colder temperatures Tuesday as winter drops back for a visit in the wake of last week's flirtation with spring.

Okay, readers? NOW what do you think? Fab snow or Flop?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (14)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Well, I'm not going to venture any prognostications about this late-weekend storm that's got everybody buzzing. We've had too many disappointments this winter. But it is my duty, I suppose, to pass along the various forecasts and hypecasts that are taking up so much Web bandwidth today. I'll let you draw your own conclusions.

First, the National Weather Service: The forecasters at Sterling have, of course, issued a Winter Storm Watch today. It's in effect from Sunday night through Monday morning. The watch - as all watches must - says 5 inches or more are possible. But that's no guarantee we'll get that much. By the same token, we could get more. The 5-day forecast doesn't suggest much in the way of accumulations. Yet. Here's the latest discussion from Sterling.

The Watch notes that low pressure is developing on the Gulf Coast, and is expected to cross to the Georgia coast, strengthen, and spin up the Atlantic seaboard, throwing lots of moisture onshore, into the cold air that settled over us late yesterday.

For the school kids and teachers hoping for a day off on Monday, I offer Prof. Foot's Forecast. He's looking for 6 to 10 inches to fall from the sky, but says warm surfaces and the late season's high sun angles will likely keep the effective accumulations to 5 inches. He's comparing this storm with one at this same time of year in 2005 that left only 5 inches or less behind.

For hype addicts, there is always AccuWeather.com. Henery "the Madman" Margusity seems to be asleep at the switch today, so here's Elliot Abrams.

Are you truly a weather/snow junkie? Here's the EasternUS weather forum. Somebody there is predicting a foot of snow on the Eastern Shore. Dig in.

And here is the AccuWeather.com snowmap, which seems to show the heaviest accumulations south of Baltimore and on the upper Eastern Shore.

Me? I'm not holding my breath. And The Sun hasn't asked me to dust off the "Physiology of snow shoveling" story that's been on hold since December 2007, waiting for a shovel-worthy storm.

Am I so wrong? What's your prediction? Fab or Flop?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Winter weather
        

There's a cold front pushing across Maryland this morning, and behind it come gusty winds and - for far Western Maryland, at least - a return to winter. The radar loop shows snow coming off the Great Lakes on that cold wind, and sweeping up the western slopes of Maryland's mountain counties. That's Deep Creek in the photo, where it is snowing hard this morning.

The National Weather Service's Pittsburgh office has posted a Winter Storm Warning for Garrett County, calling for 6 to 9 inches of windblown snow by Friday morning, the greatest amounts closer to the ridgetops.

Allegany County is also forecast to get snow today, but slightly less than Garrett.

Down here in the lowlands, we're looking at gradually clearing skies today, with increasingly gusty winds. As the new air mass builds in, we will see cooler temperatures Friday under sunny skies. The promised clipper system will arrive late Saturday, bringing chances for an all-snow event west of I-81, forecasters say. Here to the east we may see rain and/or snow showers, ending Sunday.

From there things clear up again, with sunny skies well into next week. There remains some talk about a storm forming off the coast at mid-week. But there seems to be little certainty about that for the moment.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The forecast hasn't changed much, so there still seems to be little chance that tomorrow's precipitation will bring anything more than a few morning flakes, followed by two days of cold drizzle and showers. 

Today's sunshine will fade as the high pressure drifts off shore, and the storm system that pounded California moves closer out of the west. The center of the storm will pass to our north and west, this time, which leaves us on the warm and rainy side of the picture. And with warmer air moving up from the South behind the departing high and in advance of a cold front, tonight's forecast low is just 31 degrees.

That leaves open the possibility that the precipitation will begin as snow. But sadly, at least for this winter's forlorn snow lovers, forecasters at Sterling say it will not stick. And by mid-morning temperatures will be rising, and it will be changing over to all rain. Here's AccuWeather.com on the dismal forecast.

Once the cold front behind the storm gets through, some western counties could see a brief changeover to snow. But not down here in the lowlands.

Next on the agenda after a sunnier day on Friday is a clipper system out of the northwest on Saturday.  Forecasters are calling for a rain/snow mix. But they don't seem any too sure, even about that.

In the meantime, here is Foot's Forecast on the chances for school openings to be affected tomorrow. (Don't hold your breath, kids.) On the other hand, he points out that it's probably too soon to give up on the season.

Consider this: Five of the 20 biggest snowstorms in Baltimore have occurred in March, but the most recent of them was way back in 1993. Remember the March 1993 "Superstorm?" 

Top 20 Snowstorms in Baltimore: (1891-2006)

Big snows in March seem to be becoming a thing of the past. Here's a list of monthly snow totals for Baltimore. (Now that I've said that, of course, we're in for a whopper!)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The Winter of 2008-09 continues to follow its script this week as yet another winter storm promises to brush the area with a hint of winter, but little of its inconvenience.

Forecasters at Sterling are calling for stubbornly seasonable fare this week, with both high and low temperatures sticking closer to the long-term norms (45 and 26 degrees) for Baltimore. Sunshine will be the rule until late Tuesday, when the high-pressure system now dominating the eastern half of the country moves east, and a new storm approaches from the west.

The center of the low is forming now in the Rocky Mountains. By Wednesday it will pass over the Great Lakes, to our north and west. So the associated cold front will pass by us at mid-week with little to offer but rain. Cold temperatures before daybreak on Wednesday could mean a bit of snow before it all changes to rain. But most of the event is expected to be rain for us. Highs Wednesday will rise well into the 40s.

Rain is okay. Southern Maryland and the southern portion of the Eastern Shore are both running abnormally dry for the first time since mid-December, according to the Drought Monitor.

The rain will continue Thursday as a "chance" of showers. Western counties and higher elevations could see some small accumulations.

Then, high pressure returns as the front passes by. Friday looks sunny. Saturday clouds up, however as a clipper system barrels through with yet another chance for a "wintry mix." Sunday looks sunny again. 

By then we will have passed through what are arguably the snowiest 10 dates of the year without much to write about ... a relief to many, a disappointment to the rest.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The computer models seem, finally, to have sorted out the path of the rain/snow storm that forecasters have been saying would slide by on Saturday. The consensus now is that it will largely fizzle, and pass too far to our south to affect the urban centers, although lower Southern Maryland could still see some precipitation.

That leaves us with a mostly seasonable forecast through the weekend, with sun and clouds and temperatures about average for this time of year - although way cooler than the spring-like air we've enjoyed this week.

After topping out above 50 degrees this afternoon, temperatures will drop below freezing tonight as cold, clear, dry air continues to build into the region behind the departing low that brought us yesterday's wind storm. (The bad hair day at left was in Philly.)

As the high moves off the coast tonight, the storm will approach from the southwest, but the precipitation threat will be held to Central Virginia and far Southern Maryland. We should stay dry.

Sunday looks sunnier, with seasonable temperatures. President's Day will be the coldest of the lot, sunny, but with a high only in the 30s and a low in the lower 20s.

The next chance for precipitation around here comes Wednesday or Thursday, but the storm track, of course, remains uncertain. And forecasters are hedging their bets for now, predicting a rain/snow mix.

But some winter-watchers see the developing scenario as a potential snow-maker for our region, maybe the last chance for a decent snowfall this season. Here's Prof. Foot, of Foot's Forecast, on the subject.

And here's AccuWeather.com's Elliot Abrams' analysis of the storm risk.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Just got a message from "Rex," a reader who has just received his BGE bill, based on a Feb. 9 meter reading. It is not a pretty picture:

"I just looked at my Feb. bill on line (Feb. 9th reading). $748 !!! Jan. was  $366  and last Dec. was  $213. We keep our place at 60 when we're out for the day and 65 when we're home."

Is this even possible? A doubling from January to February? My January reading blew my bill past $320 for the first time, and when I posted my reaction on this blog, it drew plenty of commiseration from around the region.  You can read it here.

If Rex's bill is a harbinger of what the rest of us are in for from the February meter reading, consumer spending in these parts is going to take another hit as we all divert the kids' milk money to pay the gas and electric bill. 

Here's the tricky part: December was relatively mild, at least when compared to the long-term averages for BWI - about 1.8 degrees warmer than the norm. So were the first week or two of January.

But the second half of January - from around the 13th on - was very cold. Only three days topped the daily averages, and nine days dipped to the teens or single digits at night. (Normal lows are 23 or 24 degrees.) February, thankfully, has been very mild so far. But depending on when they read your meter this month, you may be seeing a "February" bill with a hefty chunk of very cold January weather - and steep energy consumption - on it. If so, you can expect a huge hit in your wallet.

It's also true that we're all still absorbing the steep electric and natural gas prices that BGE negotiated way back last summer when energy prices were extraordinarily high. Even though those rates have plummeted since, our bills still reflect the prices BGE built into its wholesale contracts last summer. Ouch!

Sun business reporter Jay Hancock has pointed this out in his stories and blog posts recently, and he's noted that the wholesale rates BGE is passing along in our bills are about to drop, finally reflecting the crash in oil prices and giving us all a break in the coming months.  

In the meantime, the Maryland Public Service Commission has announced it will hold hearings on the crazy BGE bills we're all paying this winter. I'm sure that will make everything okay ...

Anyway, as your bills come in, stop back here and let us feel your pain. Misery loves company.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (18)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Residents of Central Maryland awoke to a snowy surprise this morning as snow showers - some quite heavy for a time - coated roads with a slick fluffy carpet of trouble. Schools have closed or delayed this morning, and there were early road accidents all over the place.

Here's the current radar loop. Here's the story. And here's the official forecast. And here is the report from CoCoRaHS. And from the NWS. Two inches in parts of Howard and Carroll County seems to be the most on the report.

Forecast discussions out of Sterling at 9:30 last night hinted at the possibility of snow overnight. They noted:

"... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PA THAT IS PINWHEELING AROUND THE LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL APPROACH NORTHERN
MARYLAND OVERNIGHT PERHAPS BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. WITH TEMPS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING. SNOW SHOWERS MAY WHITEN
THE GROUND IN SOME SPOTS MAKING FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT."

Well, they did. The 3 a.m. discussion noted some impressive accumulations from these "snow showers":

"IT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS IN CARROLL COUNTY AS OF 1 AM...AND IT HAS CONTINUED TO SNOW SINCE THEN. FOR PERSPECTIVE...
LANCASTER COUNTY PA REPORTED 8-9 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT...IN RATES 2-3
INCHES PER HOUR."

Of course, everybody was asleep as all this was developing. Hence, the wake-up surprise. Clearly the potential significance of this snow threat was largely missed in the forecasts, and Sterling - like the road crews - has been playing catch-up ever since.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Everybody seems to be talking about it now. Forecasters are looking at computer models that predict a powerful storm will spin up out of the Gulf of Mexico early next week and track into the Northeast. The big question appears to be where that track will go. Into the Ohio Valley and we get lots of rain. Up the Atlantic coast and we get a big snowstorm.

Wherever it goes, some meteorologists believe it signals a change in winter weather patterns and a harbinger of a snowier February. Only time will tell, and this event is still assembling itself in the eastern Pacific Ocean. It's still four days out. In the meantime, here's a sampler of the meteorological opinions:

The National Weather Service discussion out of Sterling, noting the disagreement between the two main forecast models (GFS and ECMWF). (I am spelling out the NWS shorthand abbreviations for clarity):

"ALTHOUGH BOTH DEVELOP STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, GFS YIELDS A COASTAL SYSTEM, WHILE ECMWF DEVELOPS CYCLONE INLAND ... WILL FAVOR GFS EVOLUTION [FOR NOW].

"SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG COAST. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS... ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES, COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN SURFACE AND ALOFT. PRECIPITATION TO COMMENCE AS RAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON... EXCEPT HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE COLD AIR WILL INVADE.

"REGARDLESS OF WHETHER GFS OR ECMWF [PROVE CORRECT] IF EITHER/...PRECIPITATION EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT ... WITH SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT IN GFS, AND RAIN CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT IN ECMWF. BY TUESDAY, COLD AIR INVADES...AND ANY WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SNOW."

Here's AccuWeather.com's main piece on the storm, which the eager beavers there are already calling the "Groundhog Day Storm."

Continue reading "Next week's big storm: snow or rain?" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:46 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Finally made it to work after scraping the car and sliding down the street on a sheet of ice. Once on the main roads, at least, the traction was fine. The main roads are just wet. But here's a tip:

Before you get on the main roads, scrape or push the snow and ice from your car's roof. There is probably an icy crust on top of the snow up there. And once you hit highway speeds, the wind will get under the ice and launch it into the air. And where it comes down, nobody knows.

I got onto I-695 in Towson this morning and saw at least a half-dozen cars loft ice sheets 10 or 15 feet into the air as they accelerated. These sheets - some the size of, well, car roofs - floated into the air, rotated a few times, then crashed (fortunately) onto the pavement. They could just as easily have landed on the next guy's windshield.

Okay, it's beautiful to watch. I tried (and failed) to find a You Tube video of flying ice. But do us all a favor. Get the snow off your car before you leave your parking space.

Thanks. The Management.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (11)
Categories: Winter weather
        

There will be plenty of scraping and sliding out there this morning. And the freezing mist that's still falling is adding to the glaze on walks and trees. The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until noon from Arundel north and west.

But the radar loop suggests that the worst of the freezing precip may be over here, and what's still falling is keeping mostly to our north. Best of all, there is sunshine and a promise of above-freezing temperatures in the forecast for tomorrow.

Actually, it's already 30 here on the Weatherdeck in Cockeysville. And we should rise into the upper 30s later today, allowing for some slow melting and giving the road salt a chance to work. In the meantime, school kids and teachers across most of Maryland north and west of Arundel get another day off.

You can watch the thermometer rise on The Sun's weather station. Just click here. Doesn't look, at this hour at least, like the barometer has turned upward yet. That will signal the departure of this low and the approach of drier air. For now, the entire Northeast is socked in.

In the meantime we will be shoveling and scraping and walking like penguins on this crusty glaze.

The National Weather Service will be posting overnight low temperatures, and precipitation amounts, and snow and ice accumulations later this morning. Be sure to check the date to make sure they're today's readings. You can also consult CoCoRaHS. The good news is the ice does not seem to have affected the power grid so far.

So far, it appears Waldorf and Bel Air got the most frozen precip in the state, though none of it is too impressive:

Waldorf:  3.3 inches

Bel Air:  3.1 inches

Prince Frederick:  2.8 inches

Long Green:  2.6 inches

Towson:  2.0 inches

Easton:  2.0 inches

Frederick:  1.8 inches

Mt. Airy:  1.7 inches

THE OFFICIAL TALLY FOR BWI:

December: 0.6 inches 

January so far:  2 inches (including 1.8 inches on Tuesday)

Season so far: 2.6 inches

Seasonal average for BWI, 1971-2000: 18.2 inches

Last time we had average snowfall or more: 2005-06:  19.6 inches

So, drop us a note and tell us what you're dealing with on your doorstep, or along your commute this morning. Kids driving you crazy yet? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Have you seen yours, yet? Well, brace yourself. January 2009 is winding up almost 3 degrees colder than the long-term averages for the month at BWI, and it will do serious damage to your utility bills this month.

Mine topped $300 for only the second time since we bought the place 12 years ago. The first time was in February 2007, when temperatures averaged 29.1 degrees. That's about where they stand so far this month - at 29.3 degrees. The 30-year average for January at BWI is 32.3 degrees.

Heating degree-days so far this month are running about 10 percent above the long-term average for January at BWI. Degree days are an estimate of demand for heating energy based on temperature readings. But if you've tried to conserve by turning down the thermostat, or adding insulation, or turning off the lights when you leave a room, you may be doing better than that. 

I'm dealing with what is probably inadequate insulation. My next-door neighbor, whose house was built at the same time as mine, discovered after years of high bills that the builder neglected to install any. Where were the inspectors? I also have a low-efficiency heat pump (more cost-saving by the builder). After this BGE bill, I may need to tackle both of these issues. And soon.

The good news is that temperatures should be returning to seasonal norms by Sunday.

Drop us a comment and tell us what your utility bills are looking like, and what you're doing to save energy, and dollars. Have you switched to compact fluorescents (right)? Has it made a difference?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (27)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The Winter Storm Warning posted for communities north and west of Baltimore (purple on the map)today says those areas could see 3 to 5 inches of snow and sleet before the air warms tonight and tomorrow and turns the stuff to rain. They may even get a quarter-inch of ice on top of the whole mess.

Here's how it reads:

"A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON...A SECOND STRONGER WAVE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET THIS EVENING...BUT A CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WARMER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY...
ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO FREEZE ON SOME SURFACES.

"TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 3
TO 5 INCHES AND TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH."

Things are not a whole lot prettier for communities south and east of the city (dark blue), where a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. Here's the meat of it:

"A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA TODAY...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. A SECOND STRONGER WAVE WILL BRING
A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET THIS EVENING...BUT A
CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
WARMER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR THE RAIN TO FREEZE ON SOME
SURFACES.

"TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2
TO 4 INCHES AND TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH."

Here's the regional radar loop. All things considered, if this forecast holds up, I'd guess that today's snow closings may be extended another day, at least in the northern and western suburbs, primarily because of the ice forecast.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (10)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The outlook for snow in the Baltimore region this week is pretty good - good, that is, if you like snow, or at least miss it after almost three years with little worth mentioning. A whole generation of Baltimore kids, after all, has grown to toddlerhood without having experienced a romp in snow worthy of the name.

Anyway, forecasters out at Sterling have put the probabilities for snow at BWI on Tuesday and Wednesday at 70 to 90 percent. Chances have been rising as the forecast intensity of the storm system developing to our west has increased, and its track just to our south has looked more and more favorable for snow. A Tuesday high forecast at 31 degrees should keep the city just barely in all-snow as the storm begins after noon. And a low in the upper 20s on Tuesday night should keep things going as snow. And, there should be plenty of moisture dragged into the system from the Gulf to keep it coming.

But by Tuesday night into Wednesday, things begin to warm a bit, and the likelihood of seeing some rain mixing in seems to grow. Here (in capital letters) is a snippet from the discussion from Sterling forecasters (not me):

"HOWEVER...AS
THE SYSTEM HAS LOOKED INCREASING STRONG...IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THAT [PRECIPITATION] TYPE WILL BE AS ISSUE...ESPECIALLY AS A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY OVER VIRGINIA COAST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD KEEP SNOW RATIOS LOW AND ALLOW FOR SOME RAIN TO
MIX IN WITH THE SNOW. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE PROBABILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE [FORECAST AREA]...BUT THE
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL MIX IN RAIN FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF..."

That said, if the forecast holds up, it does seem likely that Tuesday's snow may affect area schools. Wednesday, too, may be affected if the Tuesday accumulations are significant and Wednesday looks like a sloppy mess.

Clearly, locations north and west of the city will face more snow and less rain. Here the Westminster forecast. And here's the much messier Easton forecast.

And here is AccuWeather.com's take on the forecast.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

How did I not hear about this one? Early snowfall out in Garrett in November, followed by busy snow-making at the WISP ski resort, led to an autumn avalanche - okay, a snow slide - perhaps the first ever recorded at the resort. Best of all, it was recorded on video and posted on You Tube.

Fortunately, it was small, and no one was hurt in the incident, which is described by Jon Bell, on his Deep Creek Real Estate blog. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

As the snow continues to pile up, forecasters out at Sterling have issued a Winter Weather Advisory until 10 p.m. for those sections of the Baltimore area in blue on the map. They're now calling for 1 to 2 inches of snow today before things taper off after dark. Says Sterling:

"THIS IS THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW OF THE SEASON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO
STICK ON SOME ROADS. THIS WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS TRAVEL."

UPDATE: We have 2 inches on the WeatherDeck at 2 p.m. in Cockeysville, and it's snowing hard. 

UPDATED UPDATE: At 2:30, snow has mostly stopped here ... for the moment. Temperature stands at 30. 

UPDATING THE UPDATED UPDATE: 3 INCHES EVEN ON THE WEATHERDECK AT 3:10 P.M. STILL SNOWING LIGHTLY.

Here is the official forecast. Here is the radar loop. And here is the Winter Weather Advisory:

LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...NORTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...MUCH OF THE
MARYLAND AND THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED IN WASHINGTON...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF WASHINGTON INCLUDING ALL OF NORTHERN MARYLAND.

Towson has already reported an inch on the ground. Here are some more reports. It's the first measurable snow at BWI since Dec. 6, when they recorded a whopping 0.6 inch.

UPDATE: Here's a 2 p.m. Winter Weather Message from the NWS:

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING.

LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AN INCH TO LOCALLY TWO
INCHES.

WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING...SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO STICK ON
SOME ROADS. THIS WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
TRAVEL.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS
AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE

Not everyone is getting this snow. Here's the radar image showing where it's been falling. And the regional radar shows it's nearly over.

So how's the driving where you are? Are the streets getting salted? Have you stuck a ruler in the stuff? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (11)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Big fat flakes are falling onto the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville (left) this morning. The temperature is 27 out there at 10:44 a.m., and it's a lovely little snowfall. But unfortunately (or fortunately for some) forecasters don't expect it to amount to much.

The street and walks up here are now snow-covered after about an hour of accumulation. It seems to have leaped ahead of the official forecast, which called for a 70 percent chance of snow, mostly after noon. In all, they're expecting no more than an inch.

Here's the radar loop. 

Here's a clip from this morning's discussion:

"TOTALS GENERALLY AROUND ONE HALF INCH EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MODELS DEVELOP SMALL AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EASTERN ZONES...VICINITY CHESAPEAKE BAY AND POTOMAC. NEAR DC AND BALTIMORE
METRO AREAS...MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ONE HALF
INCH...DURING AFTERNOON COMMUTE."

Not much, but after so many disappointments this winter, snow-lovers ought to be delighted with seeing flakes in the air, and some whitening on the ground. The neighborhood dogs sure seem happy with it.

In the meantime, that coastal storm that is expected to develop tomorrow off the Carolinas does not appear to be a threat to the urban centers. The storm is forecast to head out to sea, and any snow that's spun off the the north and west is not likely to get beyond the extreme southern and eastern portions of Maryland.

Drop us a comment and let us know what you're seeing out your window. How are the driving/walking conditions? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The chances for the Baltimore region to get some measurable snow this weekend have been increasing this afternoon as forecasters in Sterling, Va. work to sort out the disagreements between their various forecast models.

Officially, the current forecast calls for  a "slight" chance of  snow after midnight Sunday morning. The snow chances bump to 50 percent during the day Sunday, mostly after noon. And they jump again to 60 percent Sunday night and Monday morning. (Sorry kids. It's a holiday anyway. No snow days for you.)

The problem with the forecast is that it's a hedged bet. The computer models are in disagreement, and so forecasters increased their rating of our snow chances as a way to split the difference.

The facts of the case are this: Some models show a developing coastal low off the southeastern coast as the weekend rolls along. With plenty of cold air still in place in the Northeast, that's always cause to think snow. One model sends the storm up the coast, bringing us an increased chance for snow east of the mountains Sunday into Monday. 

But other models don't see it. They predict little or no precipitation from the low, at least for us.

"The diverging solutions add to the uncertainty of this forecast," the Sterling discussion laments. "After much consideration and collaboration, we have decided to increase chances of snow across the [forecast] area ... If [the pro-snow models] are correct some snow accumulation is likely. On the flip side, if the [no-snow models] win out, then little or no snow may occur. We will need to keep a close watch on this system and adjust details as model guidance becomes in better agreement."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Saturday's storm is shaping up to be a classic Maryland wintertime dance with the "rain/snow line."  The Clipper system is rolling across Chicagoland (above) and the upper Midwest along a narrow track that will drop snow across Pennsylvania and southern New England.

But the farther south you look, the wetter the precipitation gets. Snow north. Rain south. But that's where the forecasters out at Sterling begin to waffle.

"There will be a transition band in between," they note in this morning's discussion. "Have limited confidence on exactly where that will be."

For now, the forecast for York, Pa. calls for a snowy night tonight, a snowy morning tomorrow with some rain mixing in later in the day. They can expect 1 to 3 inches.

Westminster is looking at snow after midnight and early tomorrow. Sleet mixes in later contributing to an inch of stuff on the ground. Add rain, change it to snow in the evening.

Down in Salisbury, however, the storm is forecast to generate only rain, beginning on Saturday and  continuing with showers into the evening. A quarter-inch tops.

Baltimore, in the middle of all this, is slated for slop. Rain and sleet in the morning, then freezing rain, then rain after noon. "Little or no ice accumulation," they say. "Little or no snow accumulation."

Just a lousy, cold, wet day.

Uncertainty about where that rain/snow line falls, of course - or, for that matter, where the storm track finally goes - makes much of this a crapshoot. We'll just have to live through it and see.

What we do know is that there is colder air behind the storm. Look for highs in the 30s Sunday and Monday, with sunshine. Then another Clipper will  brush by us with snow showers on Tuesday, if the forecast holds up. Then there's more arctic air to be swept down behind the storm, with Wednesday topping out below freezing, but sunny. Yet another Clipper drops by on Thursday with snow showers, followed by even colder air behind that.

These Clippers make the winter more interesting, for sure. But they typically don't pack a lot of moisture, and consequently don't drop much snow, even if they run right over you. What snow-lovers need is a lot of cold air, followed by a nice coastal low, full of Gulf moisture.

Nothing like that on tap yet.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It appears that snow lovers in Central Maryland will suffer more teases and disappointments this weekend, as forecasters reprise their "wintry mix" forecasts in Saturday's predictions. But there is real winter cold in store for us next week, if the long-range forecast holds. And that could set the stage for actual snow late next week. More in a minute.

For now, we're looking at a few flurries across parts of the Baltimore region. We saw saw flakes on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville this morning, even though air temperatures at the surface were above freezing. Frederick and points north and west also reported some flurries and snow showers this morning. That's Frostburg State at left.

But that will be it for now. The forecasters' real focus is more on Saturday's weather. Today's sunny breaks and blustery winds signal the arrival of high pressure as the recent two-day rain departs to the northeast. That will bring us more sunshine, colder temperatures and gusty winds tomorrow.

But once that high begins to move off the coast late on Friday, clouds will return ahead of the next storm system. The timing remains uncertain, but if the expected "clipper" system arrives early, it will likely start as snow, especially in the usual northern and western suburbs. On the other hand (there's always another hand), temperatures will once again be marginal, so there's a good chance all we'll see will be freezing rain - except, again, near the Mason Dixon Line. Sound familiar?

Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the clipper, which is expected to deal more harshly with Philly and NYC. And here is AccuWeather.com blogger Henry Margusity.

Best to expect that old "wintry mix" on Saturday. But as the low departs and colder air moves in, whatever is falling could switch back to snow before it all ends late Saturday night. Sterling has posted a very tentative "Hazardous Weather Outlook" for Baltimore and its suburbs, noting that "a wintry mix of snow and rain may be possible," changing to rain.

In Western Allegany and Garrett, it's a "Winter Weather Advisory," alerting residents there to the possibility of 1 to 2 inches of accumulation from TODAY's snow showers.

Sunday we start to see more serious cold moving into the region. High pressure moves back on Sunday and Monday, with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. With the cold air, a clipper-type storm could pass by to our north on Monday or Tuesday and leave us a bit of snow, forecasters say. And behind that, even colder air moves down from the arctic. Wednesday's highs may not leave the 20s.

"Cold air will be around through the end of the week," this morning's forecast discussion says. "So any approaching systems would most likely produce snow across the area. Right now, one such system could approach on Friday."

Margusity hinted at a snowstorm "from Virginia to New England." Okay, it's a long way off, an eternity in forecasting terms. But it's the only shred of hope - or fear - Sterling has to offer. 

So let Sterling hear you: Do we want some real snow for the first time in years, and some snow days this month? Or would you rather stay home with a pencil in your eye? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

If I've learned anything doing this weather blog, it's how much the forecasts from Sterling change from hour to hour.

So it shouldn't surprise me that Sterling has taken another look at the forecast. They've folded in new data and computer projections and concluded that conditions tomorrow may be ripe for snow, sleet, freezing rain and a nasty cold rain, but they say now that it won't be as troublesome as they feared this morning.

At least, that is, if you live south of the Mason-Dixon Line. That's where Sterling's turf ends, and forecasters north of the line - in Philly and State College - are always on their own wavelength on these forecasts. 

The PA folks still have Winter Storm Watches posted across much of the state - north of the MD Line. They're looking at enough snow and sleet, changing the rain and freezing rain to cause "significant" problems.

But south of the old boundary (and north and west of Baltimore), we may see similar conditions, but less of it, with mere "travel difficulties". So we get only a Winter Weather Advisory.

Baltimore and the southern portion of Baltimore County have also been removed from the advisory zone. No freezing rain there, they say now (or for points south and east), just rain and sleet, changing to all-rain later in the day Tuesday. Piece of cake.

But still Sterling is hedging its bets. "IF LATER MODELS COME IN COLDER THERE IS STILL TIME TO UP THIS TO A WARNING," they said. Here's how AccuWeather.com sorts it all out.

Here's the radar loop. Headed for New York? Looks like conditions will be better along I-95 than on the western route on I-83 and I-81 through Pennsylvania to I-78 or I-80.

All this, of course, could change as the hours tick by.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The Winter of 2008-09 continues to disappoint snow lovers in Central Maryland. The forecasters out in Sterling are warning of sleet and freezing rain during the next two days, but none of the sort of snowy winter weather (below, in 2003) that delights school kids (and some teachers), but which has eluded us so far this winter.

There is a Winter Storm Watch posted north and west of the I-95 corridor, including Baltimore but not Washington, beginning early Tuesday morning and continuing through Wednesday morning. Here's the setup:

There's a low-pressure system - a storm - brewing across the Tennessee Valley that's predicted to move north into the Great Lakes tonight. The counter-clockwise flow around the low will draw a lot of wet air north from the Gulf into our region. Here, it will overrun a layer of cold air near the surface. Depending on how cold that surface layer is, and how thick, the rain falling through that colder air will either freeze as it falls, landing as sleet; or, it will freeze on contact with the surface, which we call freezing rain.

Forecasters aren't sure yet how much of which form of precipitation we'll see, or who will get what. But there is at least a potential for as much as a quarter-inch of ice forming on surfaces such as tree branches, utility lines, windshields, railings and sidewalks. "Preparations should be made now for a potentially high-impact winter weather event Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning," the folks in Sterling said.

South and east of I-95, we're likely to see mostly rain or all rain.

However it falls, the moisture will apparently be abundant, with the equivalent of up to an inch of rain possible.

By Wednesday night, forecasters expect we'll be overrun by the next cold front out of the Great Lakes. That will mean clearing skies by Thursday, but it comes with colder temperatures and blustery winds. Thursday night will be the coldest of the week, with lows in the mid-20s.

The next storm system doesn't offer snow lovers much more hope. It's expected to deliver something by Saturday afternoon into Sunday, and the best guessers for the moment are calling it a rain-snow mix.

Sorry, kids.      

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Sure it's cold and blustery. But at least you're not stationed on top of Mt. Washington, in the White Mountains of New Hampshire.

The weather station at the Mt. Washington Observatory there is reporting a temperature of minus-12 degrees this afternoon, with sustained winds of 80 mpg - Cat. 1 hurricane force - gusting to 119 mph. That works out to a wind chill at the summit of minus-54 degrees. No stepping outside for a smoke today.

The place is socked in, but you're welcome to make an armchair visit anytime. Here's their website, with current conditions here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

There was a thin glaze of ice this morning out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. The stair railing was icy, too, but the walks and the streets appeared to have been mostly spared - either because they were still too warm, or treated overnight with salt. Traffic on the way to work was sparse, but moved without difficulty. Here's this morning's ice tally from Sterling. Looks like there was even a dusting of snow to our north and west.

I guess we were spared, especially in light of the nasty weather underway in much of the northern tier of states. Best of all, forecasters out at Sterling are saying these clouds should begin to break up later today, admitting some welcome sunshine after all these days of gloom and rain. Temperatures here at The Sun have already begun to climb above freezing, although the barometer has not yet reversed its dive.

Sunshine would also allow the Winter Solstice program scheduled for the Maryland Science Center this afternoon to include planned eye-safe observations of the sun with the historic Alvin Clark telescope (left). The solstice programs begin at noon. The observatory opens at 1 p.m. (Call 410 545-5940 for more information).

Today is, after all, the date of the winter solstice. At 7:04 this morning the sun ended its long drift toward the south and paused before beginning its return toward Earth's Northern Hemisphere. From here, days begin to grow longer, and the nights shorter. We have already passed the date (Dec. 7) of the earliest sunset. The latest sunrise occurs on Jan. 4.

For some cultures, today was not the beginning of winter, but its mid-point. From here, the days grow longer with a promise of spring and renewed life. It was a time for celebration, and merry-making. There was noisemaking to scare away the evils of winter and deprivation, and bonfires to chase away the dark and bring back light and warmth. That strategy seems to have failed in Seattle this weekend.

I prefer the notion of solstice as mid-winter. The "beginning of winter" suggests we have a long, hard slog ahead. Mid-winter suggests progress and hope. How about you?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Go early, or go late. That seems to be the best advice for Holiday travel next week. The 7-day forecast this morning out of Sterling calls for rainy weather for the weekend, with a risk of some icing to our north and west. And Wednesday looks like more rain. So, if you want mostly sunny skies for the ride to Grandma's house, the best days for travel look like Monday and Tuesday. Or, if you haven't far to go, make the trip on Christmas Day.

The long-range forecast from Sterling calls for a sunny Christmas in Baltimore, with a high temperature of 39 degrees under sunny skies. Monday and Tuesday should be mostly sunny, too, but cold, with highs only in the low 30s, and overnight lows Monday into Tuesday in the teens.

But there's a lot of rain ahead before the new week begins.

Forecasters are looking through today's murky weather and calling for up to a quarter-inch of rain as a low-pressure system rides quickly along a cold front now draped along the Mason-Dixon Line. We are on the warm side of the front for now, so today will be the mildest day of the next seven, with a high around 45 degrees.

That means we'll see all rain from this initial storm. You can track the rainfall and watch the barometer fall at The Sun's weather station at Calvert & Centre streets. Winds may pick up late today as the low zips by just to our north and heads out to sea. Upstate PA and NY and New England will get some snow out of this, but we're looking and plain rain. That's AccuWeather.com's snow map at right.

After the low passes, temperatures will start to fall. There could be some flakes in the far western counties, but not here, forecasters say.

Saturday and Sunday will feel more like Christmas, with highs only in the 30s. The cold front will hold to our south, and the next low will track along that line to the NC/VA border and deepen offshore. That will bring us cloudy skies Saturday, and more precipitation very early Sunday morning. Forecasters insist we'll see rain, with the only risk of something frozen along the (east-west leg of the) Mason-Dixon Line, again, as well as the higher elevations to our west. Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the parade of storms.

So we escape winter again, for now. Once the weekend storm clears, we're looking at colder, drier weather for a couple of days - time to make your break for Grandma's place. Monday night into Tuesday will be the coldest time of the coming week, with lows in the teens at BWI.

For Wednesday, forecasters are spotting another low, bringing a 50 percent chance for more rain. But again, no frozen precip. here. Christmas Day should be sunny and bright.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Forecast models are now showing the air over Maryland will simply be too warm for the Saturday/Sunday storm to deliver any of the snow, sleet and freezing rain forecast earlier today.

Looks like an all-rain event for the Baltimore region. Here's the discussion.

Worse, next week's storm looks like rain, too. Forecasters are now dreaming of a wet Christmas.

Sorry about that. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Ya gotta love a weather forecaster with a sense of humor. Okay, he's not Steve Martin (a former TV weatherman, and he played one in "L.A. Story"), but he does have a wry sense of impending doom as he looks as a wintry weekend forecast:

"If you don't like winter weather," forecaster Andy Woodcock said from Sterling this morning, "might be a good time to call your favorite airline and get that ticket to Miami."

Here's what he's looking at: A cold front is due to cross the region late Friday into Saturday, dropping temperatures here below freezing Saturday night. Then, the front stalls in the Carolinas, and a low-pressure system starts tracking along the front, reforming off the Carolina coast. That is, Woodcock says, "a very classic" setup for wintry weather in the Washington/Baltimore area. Here's more from this morning's discussion:

"KEEP YOUR EYE ON LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT MAY BE
UNFOLDING DURING THIS TIME. GFS (COMPUTER MODEL) IS GETTING CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A VERY CLASSIC PORTION FOR WINTER WEATHER IN THE METRO AREAS AND POINTS WEST. IAD (DULLES) FORECAST MAX TEMP OF 33 IS DOWN A DEGREE VERSUS YESTERDAYS MEX MAX GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY AND IT WILL START OFF BELOW FRZG TO START THE EVENT.

"AGAIN...STAY TUNED."

So far, the 7-day forecast for BWI-Marshall is talking about rain AND snow for the Saturday night and Sunday period, with overnight temperatures at BWI in the upper 20s, rising into the low 30s Sunday. If we do get snow, it looks like wet snow, possibly changing to rain as temperatures rise. We'll see. 

AccuWeather.com, meanwhile, sees this storm as just the start of a succession of nasty storm systems that will be moving across the contiment in the next week or more - any of which could bring us wintry misery (or joy!) as the Holiday travel season begins. Here's more.

For now, we're well out of the winter weather woods today as temperatures rise into the 40s. Thursday looks mostly cloudy, with rain likely again Thursday night and Friday as the new cold front approaches.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Although the cold front has passed to our south, dropping temperatures from the 60s we enjoyed yesterday, the cold air is taking its time rolling in. But we've probably already seen our warmest temperatures for the day. Forecasters think they'll be dropping this afternoon, and as the rain picks up, counties north and west of the urban corridor may still see some icing conditions around rush hour this evening. Here's the radar loop.

"Not quite confident that the quarter inch of ice will be realized," the folks at Sterling said this morning. But "cold air should settle right along the MD/PA border this afternoon and overnight. Think these areas have the best potential to see some icing and snow/sleet accumulation (especially during the rush hour)."

UPDATE: It's 30 and snowing at Hagerstown; 39 with light rain and falling temperatures at Baltimore at 1:30 p.m.

UPDATE 9:26 p.m.: Here are some winter weather reports from around the region.     

A Hazardous Weather Outlook is posted for the Baltimore area, noting the risk of icing in northern Baltimore County. There is a Winter Weather Advisory up for Carroll and Frederick counties, with mention of snow and ice overnight tonight. The western counties are under a Winter Storm Warning, with up to a quarter-inch of ice and an inch or two or snow on top of that.

 Wednesday should bring all-rain across the region as low pressure systems track along the front. But the precip will be diminishing. Thursday looks like more of the same, but Friday should see some warming - into the 60s again ahead of the NEXT cold front. That one, early Friday, could bring more rain or snow showers, and return daytime temperatures to the 40s, where they belong this time of year.

Saturday could bring drier weather , with some sunshine peeking through. But Sunday, forecasters say, could be "a washout," with temperatures - and precipitation types - on the borderline. If the models are correct, they're saying, "it is not going to be a pretty day."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Hard to believe after today's highs in the 60s, but ... The National Weather Service has posted a nasty menu of winter weather advisories, watches and warnings for counties north and west of Baltimore as the cold air that has clobbered the Plains states with nasty weather over the weekend begins to edge into Maryland in the next few days.

Howard, Montgomery, Carroll, Frederick and Washington counties are under a Hazardous Weather Outlook for tonight, tomorrow and Wednesday morning. Freezing rain mixed with sleet is due late tonight in the Allegenies, with some ice accumulation possible.

Icing could increase to a quarter-inch on Tuesday, forecasters said, especially west of the Blue Ridge and parts of north-central Maryland. That has prompted issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday evening through Wednesday for Frederick and Carroll counties.

Way out west in Garrett, folks are under a Winter Storm Watch issued by the NWS forecasters in Pittsburgh. They'll looking for freezing rain, sleet and snow Tuesday evening into Wednesday as the cold front moves in. 

Down here along the Chesapeake, we're told to expect much colder temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs only in the 40s. But it's still a rain-only forecast for us. We reached a notable high of 67 degrees this afternoon at BWI, about 20 degrees above the long-term average for the date. Notable, but short of the record 70 degrees set on Dec. 15, 1971.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It won't be much. But forecasters at Sterling NOW are warning that this rain could turn to snow just before rush hour Friday morning around Baltimore. It's not likely to accumulate much on the roads. But a burst of heavy snow showers here and there could stick just long enough to slick the roads as commuters are heading out.

I'm betting that will spook some school systems - especially north and west of I-95 - just enough to delay openings. We'll see.

But it's a tough call. Forecasters have been struggling all week with this complex and powerful storm system. And pinning down the rain/sleet/snow line in central Maryland has always been a winter challenge.

Earlier forecasts today seemed to downplay the risk of wintry precipitation to Baltimore and Washington. The tone seems to have changed tonight.

Here's part of this evening's discussion from Sterling:

"FRIDAY MORNING FORECAST IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. WESTERN EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHIELD WILL HAVE MOVED EAST...BUT THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH NOW /WHICH PRODUCED SNOW OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
TODAY/ WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.

"UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY WEAKEN ... BUT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME
PRECIPITATION RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR ... ALTHOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOVE FREEZING EAST OF THE MTNS. SNOW IS THE PREFERRED P-TYPE NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON AND AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THERE /EXCEPT FOR ALL RAIN IN
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND/.

"AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHT SNOWFALL
NORTH AND WEST OF BALTIMORE WASHINGTON...WHERE THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW. RECALL THAT [Sterling] NOW ISSUES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES DURING HIGH IMPACT TIMES /IE RUSH HOUR
TIMES/ WHEN AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.

"AN INCH OF SNOW IS NOW FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND
WASHINGTON ... ACCUMULATIONS WOULD MAINLY BE ON NON-PAVED SURFACES /GRASS...CARS...ETC/ WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 30S...BUT IF THE SNOW COMES DOWN HARD
ENOUGH IN A BURST THEN ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A SLOPPY
ACCUMULATION ON SOME ROADS."

However it falls, it is plenty of water. Here are the storm's total accumulation estimates, based on radar returns.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The results are still coming in, but Taneytown, out in Carroll County, appears to have won the Dec. 6 metro area snow sweepstakes this morning with a whopping 1 inch of the white death. Here is a tally from CoCoRaHS.

Columbia, Severn, Frederick, even Hamilton in northeast Baltimore City also put in good performances with a half-inch or more. Good, that is, for a teeny first-snow-of-the-season-to-actually-accumulate. The official total for BWI on the 6th was 0.6 inch.

In case you missed it in the previous post, reader "Wayne" has made an astute observation with regard to our Dec. 5 snowfalls in Baltimore. We have been writing about the odd fact that BWI has recorded at least a trace of snow on four of the last five Dec. 5ths. The string of coincidences failed in 2004, and it appeared to have failed again this year, with no snow noted at BWI on Friday.

But Wayne noted that this is a Leap Year. so we had an extra day in February. So maybe that delayed our customary Dec. 5 flakes by one calendar day. And since 2004, too, was a Leap Year, perhaps we can apply the Wayne Hypothesis to that year, as well. In that case, we have now seen snow at BWI on Dec. 5 (or Dec. 6th in Leap Years) for six years in a row.

Actually, a longer look at the records this morning adds a seventh year to the string. BWI recorded 7.4 inches on Dec. 5, 2002. 

That's Mr. Owl on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville this morning, at left. And here's the list of Dec. 5/6 snowfalls at BWI:

2008:  Dec. 6 - 0.6 inch

2007:  Dec. 5 - 4.7 inches

2006:  Dec. 5 - Trace

2005:  Dec. 5 - 1.4 inches

2004:  Dec. 6 -  Trace

2003:  Dec. 5 -  0.85 inch

2002:  Dec. 5 -  7.4 inches

I like that. Of course it's nonsense. Coincidence. But so what? Enjoy the dusting. And if you're headed for the stadium tonight, dress for the wind and cold.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Colder-than-average weather today continues to lay the groundwork for the arrival of some wintry weather this weekend, and again toward the middle and end of next week, forcasters say.

None of it seems likely to amount to much, although it may be an annoyance. And there remains considerable confusion and uncertainty among the long-range models as they try to sort out what's in store for next week.

But for the moment, the forecasters out at Sterling are calling for more cold temperatures today and tomorrow - 5 to 10 degrees below the long-term averages for BWI. That means a high today only around 40 degrees. The average for this date at BWI-Marshall is 49. Nightime lows will drop into the 20s.

The cold is the result of Canadian high pressure, which has arrived with clear skies and lots of radiational cooling at night. The high will hang around through most of Saturday, and temps will stick in the upper 30s.

But by Saturday night, the high will be moving off the east coast, making way for somewhat warmer, wetter air in the return flow in the clockwise circulation around the back side of the high.

Then the first storm moves in from the Great Lakes. We'll see clouds first, then the first shot at some snow after sunset, if the forecast holds up. Overnight lows on Saturday/Sunday will drop below freezing at BWI. Southern Maryland is more likely to see rain. But in the higher elevations it will be snow, forecasters say in this morning's discussion from Sterling.

"However, there is a chance for light snowfall accumulations to occur further east of the mountains, including the Baltimore Washington metro area," they said. They're rating the chance for snow here at 50 percent Saturday night and 20 percent Sunday.

Sunday looks cloudy at first, with highs hanging in the upper 30s. Then colder air will move in with gusty winds. Skies will begin to clear and temperatures will drop Sunday night into the low 20s. If you're going to the stadium, dress for winter.

Monday's highs will hold in the mid-30s, more than 10 degrees below the average for the date.

Looking ahead into next week, the forecasters see model projections all over the place. Here's AccuWeather.com's blogger Henry Margusity's foggy crystal ball. Most of the models seem to be predicting two storms - one in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, the second late in the week. The folks at Sterling say "Storm A" is most likely going to bring Baltimore some rain.

"However, with the first wave, if precipitation moves into the [forecast area] late Monday night into Tuesday morning, then a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain may be possible at the onset before the bulk of the precipitation would turn to rain," their morning discussion says. The chance for precip is set at 60 percent.

As for "Storm B," they're saying, "If this wave tracks south of the area, some wintry precipitation may be possible. ... Needless to say, details will need to be resolved/fine tuned with time as we move closer to the middle of next week."

The big picture seems to be that while there is nothing especially notable about any of this, December does seem to be shaping up as a relatively cold and wet start for this winter's weather. And that is pretty much what the seasonal forecasters said during the fall: wintry December, giving way to a milder January, then shifting back to more wintry experience sometime in February.

We'll see.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Now that's the kind of snow we like. Flakes fill the air like soap flakes in a snow globe, everybody gets a little kick out of it, but nothing sticks to the pavement.

This morning's squall dropped light to moderate snow across the I-95 corridor, the eastern Washington suburbs and in the Baltimore region before drifting off toward the bay. But for the most part the surface temperatures were too warm for anything to stick. There were a few isolated reports of an inch or so up near the Pennsylvania border.

Meanwhile, way out west, lake-effect snow continues to drop across the higher elevations. Garrett and western Allegany counties can expect 1 to 4 more inches before things taper off late today.

The low pressure system that made it all possible is moving off, too, and it will be replaced by building pressure and clearing skies as the day wears on. That will open the atmosphere for radiational cooling tonight, sending overnight lows plunging to the low 20s.

The weekend looks sunny, but there's another storm system in the cards for Monday. It's expected to develop over the Great Lakes Sunday, drawing warm air and rain showers into our region and pushing daytime highs to near 50 degrees before the next cold front arrives late on Monday. And that will usher in more snow for the mountains. Rain or snow showers might make it as far as the metro areas Monday evening.

Then it should be clear sailing into Thanksgiving Day.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It's easy to ignore down here, but far western Maryland counties are still being hammered by lake-effect snows. Garrett is expected to get another 8 inches tonight, and a foot in some high elevations. Western Allegany County and the town of Frostburg could see another 5 to 9 inches. That's the Honi-Honi Bar at Deep Creek Lake at left. Here are some more shots of Maryland's arctic counties.

Some of that snow could spread east of the mountains. The National Weather Service is posting a 20 to 30 percent chance of snow showers for the Baltimore-Washington region beginning after midnight tonight and continuing Friday, with up to a half-inch accumulation in spots. You can read the discussion out of Sterling, here.

Although we've been enjoying relatively mild temperatures in the 40s today, the cold front pushing through behind these northwest winds will keep readings in the upper 30s on Friday. Sunshine returns with high pressure on the weekend, but there's another low due Monday, with a chance for rain or snow showers Monday night. 

The good news? Skies should clear by Tuesday, and stay nice at least through Thanksgiving.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The National Climate Prediction Center has released its Winter Outlook for the United States for the December-through February period. For Maryland, it looks like there are no strong trends toward an unusually mild or ferocious winter. But after a string of mild ones, even a firmly "average" winter could feel pretty, well, wintry.

Here is the climate forecast map for temperature. It shows a strong chance for mild winter temperatures overall across the center of the contiguous states, with the warmest outlook for the central Plains states.

The East Coast shows equal chances for above-or below-normal temperatures. Winter temperatures over the last four winters in Baltimore have averaged a couple of degrees above the long-term (30-year) averages for the area. The coldest winter in the last 30 years for us was in 2002-03, almost 6 degrees below "normal."

That year produced record snowfalls here. No one can forget the four-day blizzard in February of that year.

But to get lots of snow, you need lots of precipitation. And the outlook for the region this winter does not show any clear trends in that department, either. Here's the map.

Once again, the heaviest weather seems destined for the Central Plains, with generally dry conditions across the South, including southeastern Virginia and perhaps part of the Eastern Shore.

Forecasters have an easier time predicting winter weather when there is a strong El Nino or La Nina event underway in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This year, we're looking at neither. It's what they call an ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) Neutral period.

That leaves them with other climate patterns, in the North Atlantic and the Arctic, to guide them.

"These patterns are only predictable a week or two in advance and could persist for weeks at a time," said Michael Halpert, deputy director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "Therefore, we expect variability, or substantial changes in temperature and precipitation across much of the country."

So, while the formal Winter Outlook does not provide much guidance for Maryland, conditions could change as the winter goes by, and we could see some real wintry weather, interrupted by milder fare.

The Winter Outlook does not include snowfall forecasts. But given how little snow we've seen in the past two winters, there would seem to be a good chance we'll see at least more average accumulations this winter. That's around 18 inches for BWI. And that would seem like a lot to plenty of us. I make that prediction based solely on the logic of the "return to the mean," which, simply put, means "Your luck will eventually run out."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It sure didn't last long, but downtown Baltimore saw its first snow flurries of the season this afternoon around 3:20 p.m. Temperatures at The Sun never reached 40 today - the first time that's happened since Feb. 28. And they have been sliding all afternoon, standing now at 36 degrees.

Here's how the weather service put it:

"NOW...
SCATTERED FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF MARYLAND... THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND NORTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RESULT.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY GUST TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL PROMOTE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS THE MID 20S."

Here's the radar loop. And here's the big picture as the snow comes off the Great Lakes.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The hardy residents of Garrett and western Allegany counties - and anyone headed west on I-68 - are under winter storm warnings today and tomorrow as a storm system moves up the Ohio River valley. Garrett could see 6 to 12 inches before it's over late tomorrow. That's a snapshot of Deep Creek Lake, below, taken with the Railey Realty webcam just before noon today. And yes, that's snow in the air. Western Allegany, and the town of Frostburg, are being told to expect 5 to 7 inches, with up to 9 inches in some locations.

The snow belt towns in the lee of the Great Lakes are  seeing plenty. Check out this video from Ohio.

Down here in the lowlands, forecasters are mentioning a "chance" of rain and snow showers as the low approaches with increasing clouds and Great Lakes moisture, and temperatures fall toward 30 degrees tonight. Just what we see will depend on the timing - how much moisture makes it this far east and how quickly the mercury falls.

"Still a small chance of seeing the first snow flakes east of the Blue Ridge tonight," the forecasters note. "Latest guidance suggests moisture will exit the area quickly this evening before thermal profiles become cold enough for snow. Will re-evaluate forecast again this afternoon."

UPDATE: There were flakes in the air in northern Baltimore County this evening, according to a teacher who worked late. Got snow tonight? Let us hear about it.

Tuesday's forecast also mentions a "slight" chance of snow showers, with stiff northwest winds. The forecast high is 41 degrees, but there is much colder air aloft, forecasters say, "so any precipitation that makes it further east will fall as snow. Amounts will be light and [we are] not expecting any accumulation at this time."

Sunshine returns Wednesday and remains in place right through the weekend. It will feel Novembery, though, with highs in the 40s and lows consistently below freezing.

For photos of snowfall in Maryland, click here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Marylanders can expect more "winter weather advisories" in their future. It's not because winters will get worse. Rather, the National Weather Service's Sterling forecast office, which serves Central and Western Maryland and Northern Virginia, is changing its criteria for issuing the sloppy weather alerts, adding more alerts under lesser storm threats to high "public impact" areas.

Here's how it works:

In the past, forecasters have issued "Winter Weather Advisories" when they were at least 80 percent certain there was 2 to 5 inches of snow or sleet on the way within 12 hours. The advisories mean that hazardous winter weather is coming that "causes significant inconveniences ... and if caution is not exercised ... could lead to life-threatening situations."

Simple enough. Starting Monday, it gets more complicated.

In the future, ADDITIONAL "Winter Weather Advisories" will be issued for specific high-travel areas during rush hour periods when forecasters are at least 60 percent certain that there is 1 to less than 2 inches of accumulating snow or sleet en route during weekday morning or evening rush hours. Those rush hours are defined as  4 to 9 a.m. and 2 to 7 p.m., Monday through Friday, federal holidays excepted.

Those "high-travel areas" include the I-95 corridor from Harford County, Md. to Spotsylvania County, Va.; inside and including the two urban beltways; the I-270 corridor from Montgomery County to Frederick County; the I-70 corridor westward as far as Frederick County; the I-66 corridor from Washington to Prince William County, Va.; and the Route 50 corridor from Arundel to PG County.

Got that? There will be a quiz in the morning.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It's only October, and already state health officials are reporting two deaths in Maryland where cold weather was found to be a factor. It's fair warning that we need to be paying attention to folks in our community who may be especially vulnerable to the cold - especially our elderly neighbors and relatives, and those coping with chronic illnesses.

Last year cold weather was found to be a contributing factor in 38 deaths in Maryland. I wrote about an elderly Wiltondale woman who, despite regular contacts with concerned neighbors, was found dead in the basement of her heatless home.

Elderly people living alone, and others weakened by heart disease or dementia or alcoholism, are particularly at risk. Financial problems and efforts to keep heating bills to a minimum can also leave our homes so cold that our bodies cannot compensate. Infants and children who spend long periods outdoors can also be at risk, said John Hammond, a spokesman for the state Department of Health and Mental Hygiene.

"If you have elderly or home-bound neighbors or loved ones, please check with them on a regular basis to make sure they're okay, or if there is anything you can do for them," he said.

In fairness, only one of Maryland's first two cold-related deaths this year falls into those categories. But the DHMH reports any death as cold-related if hypothermia (low body temperature) is included on the death certificate.

The first case involved a 54-year-old Prince George's County man who was involved in a single-vehicle collision on Sept. 20. The vehicle ran off the road and he was not found until a day later. Temperatures that night dipped to 49 degrees at BWI. It was the coldest night of the month. The man died Oct. 18, and the contributing factors included pneumonia, multiple injuries and hypothermia, according to the DHMH.

The second case is more typical. It involved an 84-year-old Anne Arundel County man. He was found outside his home on Oct. 19 in temperatures below 45 degrees, according to health officials. The low at BWI on that date was 36 degrees, the coldest morning of the year up to that date. The medical examiner's report said the man had a history of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, commonly a factor on cold-related deaths.

So as it gets colder, pay attention to your friends, family members and neighbors. Make sure they're safe and warm, and get them help if they're not. For more information on cold-weather health issues, click here.

For the record, it was 29 degrees this morning out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. The mercury here at The Sun only dropped to 40 degrees. BWI Marshall saw a low of 31. That's 8 degrees below the long-term average for this date. 

Some other lows across the region:

Annapolis: 38 degrees

Washington National: 36 degrees

Martin State Airport:  34 degrees

Aberdeen: 30 degrees

Washington Dulles:  29 degrees

Frederick Airport: 28 degrees

York Airport: 26 degrees

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The Winter Weather Advisory in Garrett County continues until noon today, with more snow due in the wake of 4-to-5 inches of lake-effect flakes overnight. Frostburg got a 2.5-inch dusting, too, as the WeatherBug web cam image above shows. Check out this radar loop showing lake-effect precip.

Garrett Countians can expect snow showers to continue this morning, with 3 to 5 inches of new accumulation in the higher elevations as winds sweep around the west side of the big low that caused all the ruckus. That storm is now far up in eastern Canada, but it is still bringing us cold, blustery winds. Winds will be gusting to 25 mph before diminishing this afternoon.

Back here on the lowlands, it's still autumn. Today will be the coolest of the next seven, with a high around 50 degrees if the forecast holds up. From here forward, high pressure will build in, skies will be sunnier and stay that way right through the weekend. Daytime highs will return to near 60 degrees, only a few degrees below normal for this time of year in Baltimore.

But winter has arrived for the north country, with more snow due today and tonight in upstate New York, northwest Pennsylvania. Here, at right, is AccuWeather.com's snow forecast map for today.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The folks at AccuWeather.com have issued their preliminary winter forecast for Baltimore, and they'll calling for "one of the coldest winters in several years across much of the East."

At first glance that sounds pretty foreboding. But I spoke Wednesday with Ken Reeves, who co-authored the forecast with Joe Bastardi, and it turns out that what they're really expecting is a more nearly normal winter, compared with the easy ones we've seen in recent years.

"We're keeping in mind what it's going to feel like to people in your area, given what it was this past season," Reeves said. Last winter was mild. In fact, winter temperatures at BWI have averaged 2 to 3 degrees above normal since the winter of 2003-2004. Better still, at least for snow-haters, we clocked only 8.5 inches of snow - almost all of it in December. Average winter snowfall for BWI is about 18 inches.

This year, Bastardi and Reeves say the meteorological set-up has changed. We're looking at a more nearly "normal" - that is to say, a more nearly average - winter. And that, Reeves said,  means people around these parts (at least those with short memories or thin blood) are in for "a shock."

With colder temperatures and higher prices for electricity and heating fuels, this may also portend a more financially painful winter than we've seen in some time. And it could begin sooner rather than later.

"We think we're going to get off to a roaring start in December, then ease back in January, before getting cold again in February," Reeves said.  

He and Bastardi arrived at their conclusions by looking at several indicators. One, of course, is the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean's ENSO cycle, or El Nino Southern Oscillation. Last winter we were in a La Nina phase of the ENSO cycle - with cooler sea surface temperatures than average in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. That typically means mild winters in our part of the world. This time, Reeves noted, we're in a "neutral phase" of the cycle.

Combining a neutral ENSO with other factors, including this year's active hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico, the AccuWeather.com forecasters concluded that weather patterns over the continental U.S. will shift eastward. That will bring a high pressure ridge - similar to one that produced colder weather to Iowa and eastern Nebraska last winter - farther east into Indiana, Illinois and Ohio. And that, they say, will increase the opportunities for cold Canadian air to flow south into the eastern third of the nation, including Maryland.

When they looked for "analogs" - past years when similar patterns were in place - they found several. And in those years, Baltimore and its environs recorded average to just-blow-average winter temperatures.

When I asked Reeves about snow, he wisely hesitated. Seasonal snow forecasts are "tricky," he said. "If it's colder, you do stand a greater chance of more snowfall. That makes sense. But it does depend somewhat on when the cold air arrives."

To make snow, you need both cold AND moisture. And they have to meet up at the same time. But this is Baltimore, and I couldn't let him get away without some kind of snow forecast for the coming winter. Baltimoreans demand snow omens at this time of year. So I leaned on him a little more.

"The thinking is the season will certainly be a snowier season than last year," Reeves ventured. That shouldn't be hard. I mean, we got 8.5 inches. But he took the bait. "Probably somewhere in the mid- to upper-teens. Maybe around 20 inches," he said, with an early "rude slap" coming in December. (Sounds like a lot, especially if it all fell at once. But remember, 18 inches of snow in Baltimore is about average for the season.)

With luck that wintery "slap" will come on Dec. 5 and bring snow. BWI has recorded at least a little snow on Dec. 5 in five of the last six years:

2007: 4.7 inches

2006: Trace

2005: 1.4 inches

2004: None

2003: 0.85 inch

2002: 7.4 inches

For the record, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecast for December thorugh February calls for warmer-than-average temperatures here with no clear trend either way on precipitation.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

I was just sitting here knocking out some Weather Page comments for later in the week, noting how little snow we've had this winter here in Baltimore - just a shade over 8 inches. Of that, more than 7 inches fell in just two storms. How different it's been out on Maryland's western frontier.

Dave Buck, at the State Highway Administration reminded me last Friday, as I was putting together our Saturday ice-storm story, that parts of the mountain counties have seen 25 accumulating snowstorms this winter. Keyser's Ridge, in Garrett County has had a total of 75 inches, Buck said.

Deep Creek Lake image from Railey Realty webcam 

Or at least that's what they'd had by Friday. There's more snow ahead for those folks this week. A Heavy Snow Warning is posted for Garrett. Cold air pouring into the region from the northwest is bringing more snow out there today. Some locations in Garrett and Allegany will see 5 to 8 inches today and tonight, with up to 10 inches possible in some spots.

There are scattered snow showers in the forecast for us flatlanders, but with temperatures already in the 40s, that seems like wishful thinking. But colder air is piling in. BWI will sink to 20 degrees tonight, and with stiff northwest winds, the wind chills will drop to the teens, despite the return of some sunshine.

There could be still more light snow for the mountains on Friday as another little storm trips down from the Great Lakes. We get rain. Saturday bumps up the risk of snow showers again, but Sunday and Monday look like a breath of spring. Highs will run up into the 50s, to near 60 degrees by Monday.

The next storm could bring us heavy rains by Tuesday.  We'll take them. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Only Marylanders would make such a fuss over this storm. Am I wrong? Am I missing something?

Here are the snow/ice accumulation reports from around the region.  Allegany County wins again with 2 to 6 inches reported way out west. But around here, nearly all of the snowfall is recorded at fractions of an inch. Ice is being measured in hundredths. Power outages at BGE have soared to a total of - 19. 

Okay. It is slippery underfoot this morning. Steps, stoops, sidewalks and parking lots can be tricky if you're not nimble on your pins. And maybe that's enough to make school officials think twice about opening the schools before their parking lots and sidewalks are treated. And the storm, after all, is not over yet.

The roads seemed fine when I ventured out. The salt trucks that woke me up in the wee hours have done their job.

But clearly there have been slippery spots. There have been many accidents this morning. If schools had opened, and just one of those accidents had involved a school bus, the decision-makers would have been burned at the stake.

So what do you think? Are we making too much of this storm? Or should we always err on the side of caution? 

Continue reading "Snow, ice, drizzle and fog" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (28)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Enjoy the sunshine today, because you're not going to like tomorrow. The National Weather Service has posted a "Winter Storm Watch" for all of Maryland west of the Bay, effective from this evening through late Friday night.

UPDATE: The storm "watch" has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, effective from 10 p.m. tonight through 10 p.m. Friday, from the Bay to Allegany County. The NWS forecasts light snow overnight, followed by freezing rain on and off into the evening on Friday. Expect a quarter-inch of ice and "substantial travel problems and power outages."  Sounds like a snow day to me, but stay in touch with your school - Sign up for The Sun's school closings alert service. See the end of this post for details.

Earlier post: This storm will likely start tonight as snow, but the thinking in Sterling appears to be that it will be largely an ice storm, with the potential for a quarter-inch of ice forming as the snow changes to sleet and freezing rain.  

We'll see clouds moving in from the southwest by this afternoon, the harbingers of the low-pressure system spinning up from the Texas Gulf Coast. Here's the radar loop.  And here's what the water vapor loop looks like.

If the forecast holds up, it will start as snow, and could accumulate an inch or two before the changeover begins.

Here's the setup: All this cold, arctic air that moved in with yesterday's Alberta Clipper is continuing to build. It's only 25 degrees here at Calvert & Centre streets as I write this. That sets up what meteorologists call a "cold air damming" scenario. This cold air is dense and heavy, and is not easily dislodged by the warm air advancing with the Texas storm.

So, we get warm, moist air aloft, dropping precipitation through the cold air layer at the surface. If the cold air layer is thick enough, we get snow. But as the warm air slowly erodes the cold layer, the cold gets thinner. The precipitation begins to fall as rain right through the thinning cold layer. It lands on sidewalks and tree limbs - where the cold air persists - and freezes in place. That's freezing rain. We get an ice buildup and - while it can be beautiful - all sorts of bad things happen.

Forecasters are having a hard time sorting all this out, and figuring out when the snow will change to sleet and freezing rain, and how much of each we'll get. But we should expect a couple of inches of snow and sleet by daybreak, followed by an extended period of freezing rain. Southern counties could see a change to all-rain, but the ice/rain line remains unknown.

The morning discussion seems to suggest the cold air will hang on longer than some of the computer models might suggest. We could get more snow than they're expecting: "If future (computer) runs come in colder again, or if observations come in colder than (computer) guidance, then (predicted) snow totals will need to be bumped up and ice accumulations toned down. Regardless, there's enough concern to justify continuance of the winter storm watch..."

At the tail end of tomorrow's storm, cold air moves back in, and any lingering precipitation on Saturday could be snow.

Here's AccuWeather.com's Henry Margusity on the forecast. And here's his precipitation map.

Continue reading "Snow, ice storm on deck" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (7)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Keep an eye on the roads this afternoon. As this Alberta Clipper approaches from the west, forecasters say, we should expect snow to begin in the western suburbs of Baltimore and Washington by noon, with snow reaching the urban corridor between 1 and 3 p.m.

Only in this winter of skimpy snow would we pay so much attention to this storm. But here we are, reduced to writing about 1 to 2 inches of snow. There will also be more wintry weather Thursday night into Friday. More on that in a moment.

The National Weather Service has posted a "Snow Advisory" for the almost the entire state west of the Chesapeake Bay, effective from 11 a.m. through 10 p.m. That means periods of snow will put a thin frosting on the roads and limit visibilities. Northern and western regions can expect the most snow. Salt crews are sure to be busy out there. The weather folks are urging caution while driving this afternoon. But then, shouldn't we ALWAYS be cautious while driving two-ton machines at 60 mph?

The impending storm is cranking up over southern West Virginia, and light snow has already moved into Frostburg. Our blue skies early this morning have changed over to a solid overcast. It's cold, and it feels like snow.

We could start to see flurries by lunchtime, but the real snow may not get cranking until early afternoon. By rush hour, it should be well underway. And with temperatures trending lower than earlier forecast, we will likely see all snow. I expect we will see some early exits from downtown this PM. Here's the radar loop. And a satellite shot.

The low will move offshore this evening, and skies should begin to clear. The NWS calls for clearing by "around midnight," which would be too late for those of us hoping to see at least part of tonight's total eclipse of the moon. With luck, maybe this thing will pick up speed and get out of here by 10. That would work out fine, since the period of totality starts at 10, and runs through 10:52 p.m. I'd be happy seeing half of that, and then the moon's slow return to full illumination by midnight.

Whatever sunshine we see Thursday morning will not last. By nightfall we'll be looking for more precipitation. The second storm of the week comes to us from the Texas Gulf Coast. It will track our way and collide with the cold, arctic air we're experiencing now.

Some of the computer models suggest the cold air will persist, giving us a longer period of snow. Others say we can expect a changeover to rain by Friday morning. Forecasters are hedging their bets for now, predicting snow and sleet for Thursday night, followed by freezing rain and sleet for Friday and Friday night. A good old Wintry Mix. AccuWeather is already out with a snow forecast map (left).

Looking deeper into the crystal ball, the author of this morning's forecast discussion from Sterling mentions "yet another storm" that computer models show forming in the Rockies reaching us by Monday night or Tuesday. Nobody is predicting accumulations on that one yet.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Everybody knew yesterday's brief excursion into the 70s (it was 71 degrees at BWI for a short time) was a fluke, right? Now we learn just how flukey that was. The weather service is predicting snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain for the balance of the week. It's winter once again.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is going to move into the region today, bringing a chance for showers in the western counties, perhaps even some snow showers.

Tomorrow it looks like we're in the path of an Alberta Clipper - one of those not-so-fierce but potentially troublesome storms that come barreling out of central Canada. They don't bring a lot of moisture with them, but they can drop several inches of snow along a fairly narrow path.

Forecasters aren't sure quite what to expect from this one. They're pointing to similarities between this setup and the Clipper than dropped 4 inches of snow at BWI on Dec. 5. Some locations only got an inch, and others got as much as 7 inches from it.

The uncertainty with this event is the temperature and the exact path of the storm. "The thermal profile will be conducive to produce snowfall," they said in this morning's discussion, and "that snow is likely to come in a swath," with our region in a "transition zone."

Translation: They don't know how much snow we can expect, or where the snow/rain/slop lines will be. Stay tuned. Here's AccuWeather's take on it. Their Elliot Abrams is calling it the snowiest pattern of the winter, for whatever that is worth. Here's Henry Margusity's blog.

Skies could clear enough Wednesday night to afford us a peek at the total lunar eclipse, which begins around 8:30 p.m. and continues through midnight. (We'll have a story in tomorrow's Sun.)

And Thursday will start sunny, but that will be a brief pause before the next wintry weather arrives.

Forecasters say the cold air will remain at the surface, with highs Thursday and Friday only in the 30s, and lows in the 20s. Add in a surge of moisture and warmer air from the Gulf of Mexico as a low now forming over the Texas coast pushes northward, and we get interesting weather.

Forecasters, in their discussion this morning, said, "Thermally, it will be cold enough for snow at the onset. But as warm air advection (inflow) continues (we) foresee a mixed bag, as there should be an above-freezing layer aloft."

And all this wintry mess will stay with us from Thursday night into Saturday. Hang in there. Spring is just 4 1/2 weeks away.

.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The dusting of snow we were forecast to see overnight stayed well to the south of Baltimore. But the Lower Eastern Shore saw enough to whiten the beach at Ocean City and to close schools in Dorchester County for the day.

Here's the view from Phillips Beach Plaza Hotel this morning. Observers at Salisbury-Wicomico County Regional Airport reported light snow between 2 a.m. and 6 a.m.  

The snow curling around onto the back side of the cold front has now departed, moving out to sea, and high pressure is building into the region. That means sunny skies today and much of tomorrow, but with more seasonable temperatures today, warming into the 50s tomorrow (Friday).

Late tomorrow, another cold front will push through, dropping temperatures on Saturday. The high will stick in the 30s, with an overnight low in the mid-20s early Sunday.

Then clouds move in again, with rain likely by Sunday night. Presidents Day will likely see showers, too, with a high warming back into the 40s until yet another cold front drops things back into the 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Friday's storm system is threatening to put a glaze of ice on things west of the I-95 corridor. The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Storm Watch from Carroll and Frederick counties westward.

The watch, in effect from late Thursday through Friday afternoon, calls for sleet first, then freezing rain. "The watch area has a potential for a quarter-inch or more of accumulating ice," forecasters said. They're most concerned about the stretch from Hagerstown to Westminster.

Worse, behind the rains late on Friday we'll get strong winds, which will likely bring down some trees, limbs and power lines already burdened with ice. It could be a cold, dark weekend for some.

Down here in the low country we still have a potential for some freezing rain. There's now a Hazardous Weather Outlook message posted for the I-95 corridor. But on the whole it should be a rain event. But it will pay to be cautious driving around on Friday.

This event is still 24 hours away, and the forecast could change and shift the slippery stuff eastward. So stay tuned.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Whew! Glad this day is over. When you work mostly indoors, you forget what it's like to be outdoors in winter weather for long periods of time.

I had to stop in Wiltondale for an hour or so this morning, to interview residents for a story that will likely run in The Sun Monday morning. It was about 28 degrees. The sun was shining, but it wasn't helping much. Stood in the cold, scribbling notes as fast as I could while my fingers slowly froze. And as any reporter knows, Bic pens begin to slow and fade when temperatures dip below freezing, so as my notes grew a paler shade of blue, I had to stop periodically to warm the tip o' the Bic in my too-cold hands.

The folks who graciously gave me their time and thoughts never thought to invite me inside. So my hands and face are still red from the exposure, and it took me all day back in the newsroom to warm up. It's my own fault, really. I went out without a hat. And I could use some gloves with the fingers cut out so I can hold a pen. And I learned long ago I need a No. 2 pencil on days like this. Lesson learned.

The forecast   calls for bitter cold temperatures tonight, with a low around 17 degrees, and another cold day tomorrow, more than 5 degrees below normal. Things will cloud up, too, and there's a slight chance of snow early Sunday morning. Only an inch or less. And given the snow-forecasting success we've seen from Sterling in recent weeks, I wouldn't count on that. More storms are forecast for next week, but all of them have still-unresolved issues about snow/rain mixes.

We'll just have to wait and see whether clouds ruin our view of a couple of nice evening flybys expected next week by the International Space Station. Stay tuned for the specifics.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Looks like the central counties on Maryland's Eastern Shore stand the best chance for some accumulating snow today - but only an inch or two.

The National Weather Service has posted a Snow Advisory for Caroline, Talbot and Queen Anne's counties, effective from noon to 7 p.m. Also included are southern Delaware and southeastern New Jersey. Here's an Easton webcam shot.

A passing cold front, coupled with a low-pressure system forming off the Virginia coast are combining to generate the snowfall east of the Chesapeake. Unfortunately, prime time for this snow will be between 4 and 8 p.m., if the forecasters are right - drive time for those crossing the bay and heading for home on the shore. They may encounter some heavy snow showers that could quickly turn things white. Here's the radar loop.

The urban corridor on the Western Shore shouldn't see that much - just scattered snow showers, forecasters said.

But Maryland's mountains could see some accumulating snow as the cold air moves in. "Will go 1 to 3 inches, although I wouldn't be surprised to see higher amounts," forecasters said in this morning's discussion.

Friday should be sunny but cold, perhaps 5 degrees below the norm for this time of year at BWI. A weak storm system will pass by on Saturday, with only slight chances for rain or snow. Sun returns Sunday and things begin to warm up for the start of the new work week. We may even move into above-normal territory, in the mid-40s.

The meteorological winter will be two-thirds over by the end of next week. And we have so far seen just 7.2 inches of snow. That's less than 40 percent of the average seasonal snowfall at BWI (18.2 inches). Only two winters in the last 10 have seen less. They were:

1997-98:  3.2 inches

2001-02:  2.3 inches

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

What a tease. Mother Nature will toy with us again Thursday as yet another arctic cold front plows through, and another coastal low spins up off the Virginia Capes.

In any other winter that could be the recipe for a significant snowstorm for the Baltimore region. But in this winter of feeble snowstorms and too-mild temperatures we're likely looking instead at snow showers, and snow squalls in far Southern Maryland.

Today we get high pressure building in from the west. That means clear skies and good stargazing tonight if you want to brave the coldest temperatures we'll see for the rest of the week. The moon is still big and bright, and ruddy Mars still gleams high overhead in the evening. You might even spy Mercury lurking low on the western horizon after sunset.

By daybreak Thursday the next arctic front pushes across the mid-Atlantic states, triggering scattered snow showers, "where any burst could produce a quick coating of snow not unlike Tuesday of last week," the forecasters at Sterling said this morning.

Complicating the picture are computer models showing the development of a storm center off the coast. Some models predict that storm will get strong enough to increase the snowfall in Southern Maryland. "We will have to keep a close watch on successive model runs because if the NAM (model) is correct there will be the potential for a few inches across portions of (the forecast area)."

Okay, so it's hardly enough weather to write about. But this winter, this is the sort of stuff we get. Beyond tomorrow, we're looking at seasonably mild temperatures through the weekend. The next chance for precipitation comes early next week. They're expecting "mainly rain."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The weather service has backed off from its earlier forecast for a "wintry mix" (still sounds like a crisp salad) today. Instead of snow, sleet and freezing rain, we're now in line for a little rain, maybe a little sleet after 3 p.m., ending by midnight. The winter weather advisory was cancelled earlier today for the Baltimore area, thought it remains in place to our north and west.

The noon discussion from Sterling suggests the problem was too-dry air left over from the bitter-cold high we saw over the long weekend. Whatever precipitation there was with this thing, it was unable to do very much as it moved up against the dry air already in place. Forecasters are still holding out for some snow showers on the western slopes of the Alleghenies.

Behind all this stuff is more high pressure and a sunny day tomorrow with a high near 40.

The next chance for snow appears to come after sunrise on Thursday. Forecasters are calling for a 50 percent chance for snow showers on Thursday as another cold front presses through. If the forecast holds up, there may be some intense squalls, with rapid accumulation of an inch or two in spots, and gusty winds.

Temperatures Thursday night will drop back into the teens. The weekend looks sunnier, with temperatures about right for this time of year.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Looks like a short but wintry work week ahead. You needed to hear that on your day off, right? Well, National Weather Service forecasters say this big, dry and very cold high-pressure system is slowly moving off to our sotuh and east. That will bring us into a more southerly flow. Don't expect balmy temperatures. It will remain below average for this time of year all week.

But the warmer, wetter weather, coupled with a low-pressure system out of the Great Lakes will bring us some snow after 10 a.m. Tuesday, they say. It will likely change to rain late in the day Tuesday. "Only minor snow/ice accumulations possible," they promise.

Behind that we get another cold front from the upper Midwest, and more dry, sunny weather for Wednesday. But right on its heels they're expecting an Alberta Clipper system from Canada, one of the world's great exporters of weather.

These clippers don't typically bring us a lot of snow. But the air in advance of it will be fairly cold. So when the storm gets cranked up here late Wednesday night, it will start out as snow, and some of it may be pretty heavy, in squalls, if the forecast holds up. "A couple of inches is not out of the question with this system," the forecast discussion says.

The good news is, we're now past the (statistically) coldest days of the year. From here on out, the average daily highs and lows gradually creep upward. Spring may not be in sight, but from here we can begin to imagine it.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Sure it's cold. The thermometer out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville slumped to 13 degrees at around 9:30 p.m. on Sunday. It's 15 degrees out at BWI at this writing, and 10 degrees in Frederick. It's expected to be the coldest night of the winter so far at the airport. My heat pump is grinding away out there, but you'd never know it by the temperature (60 degrees) in our bedroom.

But then, we're not exactly on Mt. Washington, either. The Mt. Washington Observatory in New Hampshire has clocked winds at over 90 mph today, with a real temperature tonight of minus-17 degrees. Oh, and a wind chill of 60-below! You can check it yourself at the observatory's Web site. Noodle around and find the observers' comments. They're pretty amazing. They had ravens and foxes up there today.

So how cold is it where you are? Drop me a comment and let us all know what your thermometer is telling you. Tell us where you are and how you're coping with the cold. Did you see those guys on the field in Green Bay tonight? Two below zero with a wind chill of minus-23 degrees. In their short sleeves?!  Who would go to a game like that, in those conditions, and sit in the stands? What am I missing here? Alcohol?

What's the coldest temperature you've ever experienced? When my wife and I lived in Hanover, N.H. back in the early 1970s, we awoke three mornings in a row to temperatures of 27 degrees below zero. Never got warmer than minus-4 during the day. We had to bring the car battery indoors at night or there was no hope of the thing starting in the morning. And, I had to go out to the parking lot at work every 2-3 hours during the day to start it up, or it would refuse to get me home at night. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (7)
Categories: Winter weather
        

As Maryland has moved its presidential primary elections earlier and earlier in the year in futile bids to remain relevant, it has also been moving them deeper into our high-risk snow season.

Back in 1972, all the presidential candidates were campaigning in Maryland in May. That's why George Wallace was in Laurel on that balmy spring day when he was shot down in an assassination attempt.

In 1988, the primary was moved to Super Tuesday, in early March. But as other states advanced their primaries, Maryland's visibility faded again. In 1992, the date was shifted a week earlier. And Martin O'Malley last year tried the tactic once again when he orchestrated another advance to the second Tuesday in February - Feb. 12 this year.

Well, guess what? That's backed the primary deep into snow season in Maryland. Oh it won't always snow during the second week in February around these parts. But when it does, it can be a whopper. And Marylanders don't deal with heavy snow like they do in Iowa or New Hampshire. Maryland stops moving, often for days.

As I've noted here before, that single week between Feb. 11 and Feb. 19 has seen five of the biggest 10 snowfalls on record for Baltimore, and six of the top 10 for Washington, going back well into the 19th century. It's happened three times  in recent memory: in 1979, 1983 and 2003. You can look it up here.

None of those years was a presidential election year. But what would happen if - or, better put - what will happen when one of these giant nor'easters buries the state in 15 or 25 inches of snow just as Marylanders are preparing to vote for the presidential candidate of their choice? Do you think Baltimore's election officials will get the polls open if it's snowing? How many voters will make it?

There's a price to be paid for this sort of scrambling for attention. What we really need is a thorough overhaul of the presidential primary system. Make it shorter, and thereby less costly, and allow voters in every state have a meaningful voice in the selection of party candidates. But that's for another blog.

Continue reading "Maryland primary now in snowiest week" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Yes, there is more snow in the forecast, nevermind the bright sunshine and all the melting going on out there today. The National Weather Service folks in Sterling are making it a 50 percent chance of snow as yet another storm gears up for a run along the coast.

Our results will depend on the storm's track, but even if it tracks farther offshore than expected, we will still see some precipitation, they say. Temperatures will be cold enough to support snow. But "amounts for the most part will be light," the NWS says. "The exception could be lower Southern Maryland." Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the storm, which it tags as having "little impact."

But stay tuned. Snow forecasts can change.

The real weather news this weekend won't be snow, but cold. As the Saturday storm departs, an arctic cold front will move across the region, dropping temperatures into the teens Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will be blustery all weekend, adding serious wind chill issues to the low temperatures.

Behind the front, the air will be clear, so Sunday will be sunny. But temperatures will stay below freezing all day with a forecast high of only 28 degrees. Monday morning will be the coldest, with a low of 13 degrees forecast for BWI.

After that, the warmup will be slow, creeping toward the freezing mark on Monday and the upper 30s by Tuesday as the arctic high moves off the coast to our east. Normal highs at this time of year are in the low 40s.

Forecasters say we can expect another bout of precipitation at mid-week, but they're calling for rain, not snow.

Continue reading "Snow Saturday not a worry" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

National Weather Service forecasters say the precipitation will continue into the evening, though it will be lighter than we saw earlier today. But warmer air is working it's way into the region, and that means we'll see more rain south and east of the cities, but sleet and freezing rain north and west.

Here, I'll just let the folks in Sterling sort it out:

"AS FOR P-TYPE (PRECIPITATION TYPE), WARMER AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION ALOFT ALLOWING
FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND EVEN RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THE CITIES SOUTH AND EAST THERE WILL BE JUST
ENOUGH WARM AIR OFF THE OCEAN FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE FREEZING
CAUSING THE MAIN P-TYPE TO BE RAIN/DRIZZLE. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE SUBURBS AND FOR ALL LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD IN PLACE AND WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ALOFT THIS MEANS THE MAIN P-TYPE WILL BE SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. GIVEN THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE A
THREAT FOR FROZEN PRECIP THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WE WILL KEEP THE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES POSTED FOR NOW"

Bottom line, stay home with a good book tonight.

So far Glen Burnie, of all places, seems to hold the brass ring for the most snow in the Baltimore area today, at least according to the latest storm report from Sterling.

And the cleanup has begun. Our ace tech person in the newsroom has just put on his coat and he's headed up to the roof to sweep off the satellite dish antennas. The snow cut off reception of our Associated Press news and features feeds, and our New York Times wire feed. 

And here's a hoot. I received this photo this afternoon from Steve Zubrick, the NWS science and operations officer out at Sterling.

Here's what he had to say about it:

"Frank,

Check this out...this is >one< "snowflake" that landed on my shirt around 3 PM this afternoon here at the weather office that measured nearly 1.75" across. Wow! This is an aggragate of snow flakes. When the whole sky is full of these, it's impressive!

Winds were very light at the time. These mega-flakes fell almost vertically. If winds were gusty, these mega-flakes would never make it to the surface.

Picture credit: NWS WFO forecaster Steve Rogowski (and that's my shirt!).

Steve Z."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Here I am, stuck inside on this beautiful snowy January day, writing about the weather outside. But I'm inside, chained to a computer, and I can only see a stretch of Calvert Street, the JFX and Guilford Avenue. They're starting to look slushy and slippery. But how would I know?

If you've been out in it, drop me a comment here and let us all know what the driving and walking conditions are like. How bad is it really? Be sure to say where you are. As Stephen L. Miles used to say, 'Lets talk about it.'

You can also upload your digital photos to our readers' photo page. Do it now! Give us shut-ins a vicarious day in the snow.

I notice that the precip at BWI has changed to rain in the last hour. I guess that's the beginning of the end for accumulations across the area today.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (26)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The snow has begun to fall at Calvert & Centre streets. But the temperature outside the newsroom is 36 degrees, so it's hard to imagine any of this will stick on the streets. Forecasters continue to call for an inch or two in the I-95 corridor, and a couple more than that to our west.

Maybe they're onto something. I notice the barometer has been falling since the snow began. So is the temperature, which happens when it precipitates.

Some Virginia locations are already reporting several inches on the ground. To check for school closings, or subscribe to school closing alerts, click here.

Here's the Winter Weather Advisory for east of I-95. And this is the Winter Storm Warning posted for Carroll County and west. Below is the snow prediction map from AccuWeather.com  Clearly most of the snowfall will be well to our west and northeast, by their estimates.

The NWS says to expect moderate to heavy snow rates as the storm gets started. Here's the radar loop. The changeover to a rain/snow mix will start to our southwest and work its way north and east. As the storm moves up the coast we will fall into a more easterly flow of air off the ocean. The NWS is saying that will mean warmer air and a change to freezing rain or rain this afternoon, depending on how long it takes to shake the colder temperatures near the surface. But it looks to me like the air near the surface is already well above freezing.

Even if we get off easy with this one, as it appears we may, the forecasters have more in store. They're expecting a second coastal low to move our way on Saturday, with precipitation likely to increase as the day wears on. Like today's weather, that storm is expected to start as snow, then mix and change to rain in the eastern sections of the region during the afternoon.

The really cold air arrives as the Saturday storm departs with a high Sunday only in the upper 20s.

Our next storm chances are forecast for the middle of next week.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

After preaching about "an inch," and changeover to mixed precip, and then rain, and no accumulation, the National Weather Service has deepened its forecast for Thursday. Now, the winter weather advisory posted west of the I-95 corridor is talking about 2 to 4 inches of snow during the day Thursday, and an inch or two east of I-95 with a late changeover to freezing rain.

Here's the morning advisory.

Farther west, in Carroll and Frederick and points west, they're looking for 4 to 8 inches in an all-day snowfall. Really. They've posted a winter storm warning out there.

AM UPDATE: Overnight, the NWS has scaled back its accumulation estimates by an inch or two. It's now 1-2 in the advisory area, and 3-6 in the warning area. Here's the map.

School systems may have a hard time with this one, since the snow isn't expected to start in Baltimore until after sunrise. Do we close schools with no snow in the air? Or do we bring everybody to school and send them home early after it starts to accumulate?

The precipitation is on its way. Here's the radar loop. And here's AccuWeather.com's take on it all. And Madman Margusity's.

This will be messy. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (7)
Categories: Winter weather
        

A new storm brewing in the Gulf of Mexico, and the relatively cold air in place in our region, should combine to bring us a bit of snow in the morning, forecasters say. But there's not a lot of hope - for those in need of a snow day - for any significant accumulations.

UPDATE: 4 p.m.:  Or maybe there is. The NWS has issued a WInter Weather Advisory that says the I-95 corridor could see up to an inch on the ground in the morning, with several inches to our west as the day wears on. Snow will change over to sleet, freezing rain and rain during the afternoon, but not as early as earlier forecasts (below) suggested.

EARLIER: The storm is spinning up in the northern Gulf today, and is expected to move across the Florida panhandle into the Atlantic, just off the Carolina coast, by tomorrow afternoon. That will supply the precipitation.

The cold air is already in place, with a forecast low tonight in the mid-20s. That will set the stage for snowfall in the morning hours, at least until temperatures start to warm up during the day. NWS forecasters at Sterling are saying it will be all snow until around 10 a.m., and mix with rain until about noon. By then enough warm air will have pushed into the region, and worked its way down to the surface, to change it all to rain.

The farther west you are - west of I-95 - the later the changeover will occur, they say. In any case, they're saying "little or no snow accumulation expected." But this is the sort of winter scenario that is notoriously hard to predict with confidence in these parts. So we could wake to slippery roads, or just wet.

The highest likelihood for prolonged wintry precip is in western Virginia. 

Continue reading "Snow in the morning" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Low pressure over eastern Canada is dragging plenty of cold air into our region today from the west. And a weak disturbance embedded in that cold air could trigger some snow showers this afternoon. In their morning discussion today, forecasters call it "not enough for accumulations, but enough to be noticed if it happens."

So if snow does appear in your office windows today, there's no need to panic and flee into the flakes, headed for the grocery store. Just relax and enjoy the scenery.

UPDATE: 3 P.M. - Some of the showers we saw this afternoon actually did leave a measurable accumulation. Click here.  And here's what it looks like on radar.

It will all be over tonight as skies clear and the stars come out. Tomorrow should be sunny and bright, too, with seasonable highs in the 40s. They're calling for a coastal low to develop on Thursday, bringing us another shot at some significant precipitation by the afternoon. The forecast high for Thursday at BWI is 40 degrees, so they're talking about "mostly rain" east of the mountains, and "mostly snow" to the west. 

Thursday night into Friday could bring some changeover to a mix of rain and snow here. But forecasters caution that, with this kind of coastal storm, they won't get a handle on the rain/snow line until 12 to 24 hours ahead of its arrival.

Whatever we get, there may be a good deal of it. The forecast mentions a potential for up to a half-inch of rain Thursday night. With enough cold air in place, and just the right storm track, who knows?

Friday could usher in the coldest weather of the season so far. The forecast calls for highs only in the 30s for the long MLK weekend. Sunday night's low could sink to 13 degrees.

Continue reading "Snow showers, no sweat" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

So we get less than a tenth of an inch of rain out of this "storm," but a slice of the western Allegany County may get up to a foot of snow ? How is that fair? New England is finally getting some wintry weather, too.

No matter. The heavy snow warnings are up in the mountains to our west. Really! Look, I won't even make you click to see it:

"SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT...AND THE WESTERN RIDGES OF
HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES. SNOW INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE AND PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A
SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA...WITH UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS."

Here's a webcam view from WISP, taken this morning. And here's our forecast - seasonable temperatures and no precipitation until Thursday. The weekend looks cold, though, with highs stuck in the 20s. Then all we'll need is a coastal storm, and we could get actual winter weather.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It snowed in Baghdad today. It wasn't much, and it never really stuck. But it was the white stuff, and it provided a welcome distraction and a delight to Iraqis who have no memory of such weather in the capital.

Here's some video from You Tube. And this, too. And here's a view from orbit.

The storm was part of a series of snowy events in the region. Deep snow - up to 20 inches - in parts of Iran where it was virtually unknown have killed a score of people there. Here's more from AccuWeather.com. And a report from CNN.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

National Weather Service forecasters are usually reluctant to start talking about possible snowstorms more than a week in advance. But this morning's discussion from Sterling includes some very early speculation about an overdue outbreak of cold arctic air late next week, coupled with another coastal storm. That's often the formula for a Chesapeake snowstorm. And in this snow-starved and weirdly balmy La Nina winter - heck, even Baghdad got snow this week -  it's worth writing about.

More on that in a minute. First, we have this weekend to watch. This morning's NWS forecast calls for a 30 percent chance of rain or snow Sunday and Sunday night. The snow part looks like a stretch. The lows Saturday and Sunday night barely dip below freezing, and they're expecting Sunday's high to reach well into the 40s.

That sounds more like rain to me. But in the Hazardous Weather Outlook posted this morning, (after dealing with today's cold front passage and the showers and thunderstorms that could bring us today), forecasters seem to take seriously the threat of something frozen on Sunday.

Specifically, they say, today's frontal passage will put some colder air in place in our region. Then a coastal low develops off the Carolinas. As precipitation associated with the storm develops on Sunday, forecasters are saying we could first see snow and sleet mixing with rain, changing to all rain in the afternoon, especially southeast of the I-95 corridor. Then, on Sunday night, the whole mess could switch back to snow, with "minor" accumulation possible, "especially north of Baltimore toward the Pennsylvania state line."

Over at AccuWeather.com, extreme weather blogger Madman Margusity has posted a snow map that gives us 3 to 6 inches of snow. I don't buy it. I'm not sure he does either. Even his own company shows us getting a mix, at best.

So that's Sunday. But what about next week?

Continue reading "Snow, and rumors of snow" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Yeah, I know. The National Weather Service has the snow icons up on its five-day forecast for Baltimore. They're calling for a "chance" of rain or snow Sunday into Monday. But I'm not holding my breath.

When you read down deep into the forecast, you see high temperatures Sunday and Monday in the 40s, and a low of 33 for Sunday night. And well down in the morning discussion from the Sterling forecast office, you find a lot of uncertainty about this event. It all hinges, once again, on the storm track.

Some of the computer models keep the storm far to our South after it fires up along the Gulf Coast. One brings it right up the coast, which would give us a better shot at rain or snow. The forecasters like the latter model better because it has been doing a better job this winter with these kinds of storms.

However, even if they're right, it does not look like that scenario would bring us snow here in the I-95 corridor. "The best chance for any wintry precipitation," the discussion says, will be "west of the Blue Ridge." Sorry kids. We get rain, which is fine. We still need it.

For the record, Henry "Madman" Margusity, the always-hyper storm blogger at AccuWeather.com, had a post up yesterday that said, with his usual reserve:

"EURO HAS MONSTER STORM - I just got a peak at the Euro model and it has a monster of a storm coming up the coast. It tracks the storm from Mobile, Al to Philadelphia to Portland, Maine. On that track, the Appalachians get blasted by snow."

Nah. Another AccuWeather.com forecaster, Elliot Abrams, describes the possibilities, and the uncertainty, here. He also hints at a series of coastal storms over the next two weeks. That could raise the possibility of a significant snowfall, or at the very least much-needed rain.

Continue reading "Sunday/Monday snow threat ... for mountains" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It's a tough time for skiers in these parts, and for those who profit from the wintry white stuff. Princeton Sports has emailed its customers, canceling its "Customer Appreciation Day" at Whitetail:

"Whitetail called this afternoon to say that warm weather and rain is forecasted for 2 days. If you choose not to ski, please feel free to return you unused lift ticket to Princeton Sports for a full refund. If the mountain is open and you decide to ski, neither our employees, nor our manufacturers will be at Whitetail on Wednesday.

"With this warm weather, I know that you all understand. We regret the poor weather conditions. We were looking forward to the opportunity to ski and ride with all the member sof the Princeton Sports family. Here's hoping the weather returns to winter conditions soon and you can all get out and enjoy the slopes!"

Indeed, Whitetail reports on its Web site that it will close Thursday and Friday. Ditto for Liberty and Roundtop. The region is due for some substantial precipitation, but it won't be the frozen variety. 

Here's Liberty's Web cam link.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The thermometer out at BWI touched 70 degrees this afternoon, busting the old record of 69 set on this date in 1930. It was the second day this week with 70-degree readings at the airport. Monday's high fell short of the record for that date - 74 degrees, set in 1907.

The picture was a little different closer to the Chesapeake. The temperatures at the U.S. Naval Academy stalled in the 50s because of a bay breeze through early afternoon. But when the wind shifted to the southwest - off the land instead of the water - before 3 p.m., the mercury jumped to 73 at the academy.

Over at Martin State Airport, also on the water, they didn't get the wind shift and temperatures stalled in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.

Washington National and Dulles also reported readings in the 70s this afternoon.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Sure it's cold. There's even some ice on area streams and ponds. But it hasn't been cold enough long enough to produce ice thick enough to bear the weight of people and pets. The National Weather Service has issued a warning urging area residents to stay off the ice. Here it is in full:

BEWARE OF THIN ICE ON LAKES...PONDS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS...

THE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM AN ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN
IN PLACE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS CAUSED DEVELOPMENT OF HAZARDOUS
THIN ICE CONDITIONS ON MANY AREA LAKES...PONDS...STREAMS...AND
RIVERS.

THESE HAZARDOUS THIN ICE CONDITIONS ARE DANGEROUS AND COULD CAUSE
PEOPLE AND PETS TO FALL THROUGH...AS UNFORTUNATELY HAPPENS EVERY
WINTER. YOUNG CHILDREN ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THIS HAZARD.

AVOID GOING OUT ON ICE UNLESS ONE IS CERTAIN THE ICE IS STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THEM. THIS IS NOT LIKELY IN THE BALTIMORE-
WASHINGTON-CHARLOTTESVILLE REGION EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. IT TAKES MANY DAYS AND NIGHTS
OF SUB FREEZING WEATHER TO PRODUCE A LAYER OF ICE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT THE WEIGHT OF A PERSON.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Well, that was brisk. The heat pump seemed to run all night last night as temperatures sank to 12 degrees out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. The cold air, calm winds and clear skies produced plenty of frost on the windshield, too. Here's a sampling of unofficial low readings from across the region.  

Officially, the low at BWI was 15 degrees, precisely as forecast. It was 24 degrees before dawn here at Calvert & Centre streets in downtown Baltimore. Here are few more readings:

Frederick:  10 degrees

Morgantown:  11 degrees

Aberdeen:  14 degrees

Annapolis:  22 degrees

Ocean City:  15 degrees

Dulles Int'l: 13 degrees

Washington National:  22 degrees

That should be it for the really cold weather for a while. The forecast calls for gradually warming temperatures, reaching the 60-degree mark early next week.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

FRIDAY UPDATE: Click here. 

No, not here. But meteorologists are watching a huge weather-maker that is stalking northern California and southern Oregon. Heavy rains are already pounding the region, and the really big storm hasn't even arrived yet. It's still out over the Pacific. But it's on the way ashore in the next few days.

Early predictions call for huge surf, 5 to 9 inches of rain where it rains, and "tremendous" snows of 5 to 8 feet for those places above the 7,000-foot level in the Sierra. Add 50 mph winds and you have the makings of an historic storm for that region. We'll be seeing this one on the telly. Here's more from AccuWeather.

The blizzard warnings are up - in red - on this map. And here's the forecast for Reno.

Got friends in Southern California? They won't escape this thing. They can expect heavy rains, which are to Angelenos what snow is to Baltimoreans. Except our houses don't usually slide down the hill when it snows.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (5)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Stiff northwest winds are sweeping