There's a chance of snow in the weekend forecast. The National Weather Service says there's 60 percent of precipitation on Saturday night, which could be rain and snow. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

UPDATE: Baltimore professional meteorologist Eric the Red says the latest models back off on the snow:

"Saturday, cloudy, temps in the 40s... chance of light rain late in the day in the west and south. Saturday night, chance of light rain or snow, little or no accumulation, temps in the middle 30s.  An inch would be a bonanza.  Sunday, light rain and snow ending, with little additional accumulation."

Baltimore professional meteorologist Eric the Red says there's still a bit of uncertainty but:

"There is good enough agreement [on the models] to go ahead and pull the trigger on a Piedmont snow for Saturday night and Sunday. At this point, [it] does not look like heavy snow, although things could happen to alter that as well.  South of Baltimore... and along and east of I-95, rain and snow will change to snow before ending. Several inches of snow are likely in the Piedmont of MD, while along and east of I-95 may get a coating to an inch. "

Posted by Kim Walker at 5:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Today's high at BWI today reached 66 at 3:13 p.m., according to the National Weather Service, but it did not break the 1947 record of 69 degrees. And Wednesday is forecast to reach 63.

According to Candus Thomson's story in today's paper,  it's been the warmest January since 2007: 

"Temperatures were above 50 degrees on a dozen days; one day, Jan. 7, topped out at 66 degrees. Through Sunday, this month has averaged 37.9 degrees, nearly 5 degrees above the long-term average and the warmest January since 2007. ... The jet stream has stayed to the north of the Mid-Atlantic region for most of the season, allowing higher temperatures to move in from the south," said Bryan Jackson, a meteorologist at the national Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs.

Thomson also reported that because of the warm weather lately the "USDA updated its plant hardiness zone map last week for the first time in two decades. The color-coded map, used by gardeners to time their spring plantings, increased the temperature in each zone by about 5 degrees and added two warmer zones to the map."

Anyone open their windows, take in a round of golf, go for a long run or take the kids outdoors? 

(Above) Kerry Clough of Owings Mills pushes her 3-year-old daughter Simone Clough, while Sophia Clough swings on her own at Meadowood Regional Park. Baltimore Sun photo by Barbara Haddock Taylor. 

Posted by Kim Walker at 5:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

While the BWI snowfall was 0.4 inches, the National Weather Service spotters around the region found up to 2.6 inches.

The 2.6 inches was measured by a spotter in Parkton. Other totals include 1.2 in Pimlico, 1.8 in Perry Hall and 1.4 in Savage. See more spotter totals here. 

Posted by Kim Walker at 12:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

In Baltimore, road crews were starting to wrap up salting and plowing operations, with most roads expected to be done by 11 a.m.

“It’s turning into a rain event,” said Adrienne Barnes, a spokeswoman for the city’s Department of Transportation. She said crews will be working throughout the day and night, but they will be hitting targeted, problem areas, instead of cruising the streets.

Barnes said that all primary and secondary roads were salted and plowed by this morning and as of 10 a.m. crews were responding to individual calls for service or complaints.

“We haven’t encountered any major challenges or problems,” she said. “Friday night, there was a low volume of traffic, which definitely was a tremendous help. People stayed indoors last night, which was great, so we were able to maneuver through the city without any problems.”

Barnes said that as of 9 a.m., trucks spread 275 tons of salt on 1,500 miles of city roads. The city has 13,725 tons of salt remaining for the winter.

-Peter Hermann

Posted by Kim Walker at 10:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

While it may be mostly freezing rain here, those traveling to the Boston area on Saturday for the Ravens game on Sunday will see more weather action from a fast-moving storm coming from the Midwest that will dump snow and ice along the Northeast.

According to AccuWeather (who also provided the map above): 

"The storm has the potential to put down a half a foot of the white stuff along a swath from northern and central Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York to New York City onward into part of the Massachusetts coast.

"Cities that run the risk of a glaze of ice include Morgantown, W.Va., Charlottesville, Va., Hagerstown, Md., Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Wilmington, Del., and Philadelphia. (Philadelphia's northernmost suburbs and much of Long Island fall within the zone that can receive several inches of snow, even if mixing occurs.)"

The Boston area itself is forecast to get 2-4 inches of snow Saturday, but it will be partly sunny with a high of 34 on game day. 

Posted by Kim Walker at 11:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The National Weather Service forecast is calling for snow, sleet and freezing rain overnight into Saturday morning. And Sunday isn't looking great either.

UPDATE 3 p.m.:  A winter weather advisory is in effect from 11 p.m. Friday to 1 p.m. Saturday calling for accumulations of 1-2 inches of sleet and snow and two-tenths inch of ice from freezing rain.

"SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS
  TRAVELING CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
  MORNING. ICE WILL ACCUMULATE ON TREES AND POWERLINES."

Previous post begins here: 

Meteorologist Kevin Witt told The Baltimore Sun that the entire Baltimore area will be affected by the wintry mix, and the most precipitation will come between midnight Friday and noon Saturday.

"It's a wide system. We're going to see a little bit of everything," he said.

Witt said the precipitation will start with snow and then become a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain.

"The onset will be this evening, and then we'll see the snow and sleet and then sleet and freezing rain," Witt said. "The brunt of it will be overnight and into tomorrow morning. Midnight to noon will be the worst time, and then it will tail off."

 Baltimore professional meteorologist Eric the Red's take:

"The models do have enough cold air initially holding firm east of the mountains and from Baltimore north to produce a period of accumulating sleet and snow late tonight.  The farther north you go, the better chance you have of seeing an inch or two of snow before it changes of to sleet and freezing rain.  So the updated outlook is for a brief period of snow late tonight, changing to sleet and freezing rain by morning in most locales.  Across [northern Maryland], snow may last long enough to accumulate 1 to 2 [inches] before changing over.  Everywhere else, an inch or less is expected."

As far as Sunday goes, the National Weather Service says there could be a second round of sleet, freezing rain and then rain Sunday and Sunday night, but not enough accumulation for a winter storm watch to be issued yet. Stay tuned.

1:55 p.m. UPDATE from Eric the Red: 

"Cold air is pushing into the region at the surface.  At the same time, moisture will come at us from the west and south.  Warmer air will also push into the region aloft, changing the snow to sleet ... and freezing rain. ...  So we're looking at a decent shot of snow and sleet tonight ... an inch of snow and sleet south of Baltimore is possible before changing to freezing rain and rain, while I'll go with 1 to 2 [inches] from Baltimore north, with potentially more (2-4 inches) as you head up toward the PA line, esp if the cold air holds longer than expected. 
 
Temps will struggle to get above freezing Saturday, and many locales north and west of town won't top freezing at all.  Arctic air pushes south back into the region at the surface Saturday night, setting the stage for a super dicey Sunday ... with freezing drizzle and ice grains possible."  

Posted by Kim Walker at 11:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The National Weather Service is still calling for a chance of flurries before midnight. According to the forecast discussion:

"[TONIGHT'S COLD] FRONT IS STILL RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED...AND THERE
IS QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTHEAST SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE
IT. HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES WITH THE
FRONT AND BEHIND IT /UPSLOPE FLOW/ WHERE THERE MAY BE AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT. LOWER POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN
FORECAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MARYLAND/EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AND THEN FLURRIES FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WASHINGTON/BALTIMORE METRO AREA." 

Baltimore professional meteorologist Eric the Red says tonight's activities will merely be a "dusting. Any snow that falls would do so between 7 p.m. and midnight-ish."

Posted by Kim Walker at 11:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Before Saturday's possible wintry mix, we may see some scattered flakes on Thursday, according to the National Weather Service.

According to the forecast discussion about Thursday's weather on NWS' website: 

"INCREASING CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. STILL AM NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH
MOISTURE NOR FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND CONTINUE POPS FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION GENERALLY OVER THE HIGHLANDS/WESTERN
SLOPES WITH THE FRONT AND BEHIND IT /ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE FLOW/.
HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES MAKING IT EAST OF HERE EVEN
TOWARD THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON CORRIDOR ESPECIALLY WITH THE 500
MB TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT."

Baltimore professional meteorologist Eric the Red weights in: 

"Some flurries may accompany a strong cold front [Thursday night], followed by some light snow, sleet, and freezing rain Friday night/Saturday morning, changing to rain on Saturday... with a chance of freezing drizzle Sunday into Sunday night.  Long-term outlook indicates we finally get into a very favorable ... pattern for wintry weather by the end of the month." 

Posted by Kim Walker at 12:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

A wintry mix is expected this weekend with snow flurries beginning early Saturday, turning into rain, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service told Sun reporter Jessica Anderson last night.

Would the threat of a snowy weekend put a damper on your plans? Or do you think we're due for a good snow shower? 

Posted by baltimoresun.com at 7:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

A cold front coming from the Midwest tonight might turn some rain into snow after midnight if the temperatures drop low enough, forecasters from the National Weather Service say. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch is possible.

Baltimore professional meteorologist Eric the Red doesn't expect much to happen:

"Strong cold front will come blasting thru between midnight and 6 am. Out ahead of the front, temps will remain spring-like... so we'll have our work cut out for us far as dropping temps to the point where we can get snow.  Temps are expected to drop fast late tonight, but I'm guessing most of the [precipitation] will be thru by the time that happens.  So for tonight, a chance of showers after midnight, possibly ending as a period of snow, especially in [northern] MD and in the mountains." 

Posted by Kim Walker at 2:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Baltimore professional meteorologist Eric the Red says:

"The models hold this [northern] edge into the afternoon, at which time the [precipitation] shield is expected to expand north toward Baltimore in the early eve before ending. ... Impacts would be minor - if any.  After record-warmth this weekend, the ground is plenty warm.  [Precipitation] lingering after sunset could pose a problem is it's heavy enough, but it should be done falling before that happens."

UPDATE  3 p.m.: "The first round of snow is exiting the [southern] portions of the region. ...  The money vort is coming at us from the northwest, and that will bring round 2, which will fall a bit farther north. 
 
Satellite shows clouds expanding across WV and nrn MD, and radar is beginning to pick up on developing snow across northern VA and eastern WV.  I honestly don't know where the northern edge will set up... but based on satellite and radar, seems like it will be somewhere between Baltimore City and the PA Line. This precipitation will start to impact the area in the form of rain and wet snow between 3-4 pm and last for several hours, perhaps enough to whiten the ground."

Update 3:30 p.m.:  "The [northern] edge of the 2nd round of snow is setting up near I-70 ... so from Baltimore City/I-70 and south, snow likely this eve, maybe enough to whiten the ground and [disrupt] rush hour. North of that, doesn't look like it's gonna make it." 

The National Weather Service agrees that it will be mostly rain here. 

"BY THE TIME MEASURABLE [PRECIPITATION] ARRIVES... [SURFACE] TEMPS SHOULD BE ABV
FRZG...SO NO ADDITIONAL HEADLINES [EXPECTED]. RAIN [EXPECTED] TO [INCREASE] THIS
AFTN WITH APRCH OF UPR SHRTWV TROF... [ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN] ZONES...WHERE
UP TO ONE-TENTH INCH WILL BE PSBL THRU THIS EVE."

Posted by Kim Walker at 1:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The National Weather Service's preliminary snowfall map shows amounts from trace to 0.1 inches of snowfall in central Maryland.

There wasn't much snow but it sure was cold.  The low at 6:10 a.m. was 13 degrees, 12 degrees lower than normal, but not a record. The high was 31, 11 degrees lower than normal.

The forecast gets warmer as the week closes with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s through Sunday. 

Posted by Kim Walker at 2:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Did you enjoy the flurries yesterday? Most commuters did not. We're in for a second round later today.

The National Weather Service is forecasting scattered flurries after 3 p.m. as well as later tonight. Here's their updated discussion on their site:

"Weds...  an upper-air disturbance will come at us from the west, while a weak front stalls just to our south and west.  This will set the stage for another round of snow showers Weds afternoon and eve.  ... They will be hit and miss... altho some of the "outlier" models (less commonly used) indicate there could be a bit more widespread accumulating snow with this, esp across nrn MD.  If the worst-case models are right, then an inch of snow could fall in portions of nrn MD Weds afternoon and eve. 
 
Weds night and Thrs morning, warm front begins to lift north toward us while another upper-air dist comes at us from the west. This too could touch off some light snow or flurries early Thrs, again most likely in nrn MD."
 

Posted by Kim Walker at 11:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

We had a brief snow shower today downtown as well as some flurries in some central Maryland counties earlier. The National Weather Service says accumulations will be less than half an inch.

Baltimore meteorologist Eric the Red says there's a chance for a dusting tomorrow:

"A weak disturbance coming thru tomorrow (Wed.) may produce some light snow or flurries during the mid to late afternoon.  Seeing some hints that it may be enough to dust the ground ... does not appear to be anything beyond that."  

With the temperatures dropping and some flakes falling, here is an overview of winter weather hazards. 

Posted by Kim Walker at 3:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Today's forecast from the National Weather Service call for some flurries before 3 p.m. Some folks have already tweeted seeing some flakes in Hunt Valley.

From the National Weather Service: 

"A NEGATIVELY-TILTED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THAT PASSED THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT/ WILL PUSH EAST TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. THE UPR TROUGH WITH THIS LOW WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL REACH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.  CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...LIMITING MAX TEMPS TO THE LOW TO MID 40S /UPR 40S FROM KCHO TO KEZF/.  RDR INDICATES LGT SNOW OVR THE ERN PANHANDLE IN ASSO W/ A MID- LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HOWEVER WITH FORCING INCREASING TO THE NORTH AND A DRY SFC LAYER...ONLY SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ALONG THE MASON- DIXON LINE ARE CURRENTLY MENTIONED."

From Baltimore meteorologist Eric the Red:

"Some light snow is falling across northern MD courtesy of a slow-moving warm front. The snow is light, and is falling mainly north of DC and mostly west of I-95, but is kinda fun nevertheless. As far as accumulations go, none.  It's between 34 and 38°, so nothing will stick at those temps. However, models - which have totally missed this by the way - are now showing another round of light snow across central and nrn MD tonight ..., which might leave a dusting since temps will drop with sundown."
 

Posted by Kim Walker at 1:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The National Weather Service has up a handy U.S. map on chances of a white Christmas. The southern and eastern half of Maryland is coded with less than 10% chance and the central/western part is 10-25%. The early NWS forecast for the Baltimore area is cloudy with a high of 43.

Here's Baltimore meteorologist Eric the Red's latest take on Christmas weather: 

"A disturbance in the southern jet stream will race northeast off the Carolina coast, while another disturbance in the northern jet stream races by to our north.  These two features will remain separate (no phasing), and that as they say is that.  Christmas Day - as it looks now - will be breezy and cold.  If the northern-stream disturbance slows down or were track a bit farther south, then this would change.  But really, that's wish-casting."

Posted by Kim Walker at 1:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

From Sun reporter Steve Kilar:

Scattered snow flurries will fall in the Baltimore and Washington metropolitan regions Saturday evening, according to a National Weather Service forecast from 7 p.m.

Some residents in Baltimore County reported seeing flurries early in the evening.

No accumulation is expected. Temperatures will drop to around freezing by 10 p.m. and there will be northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph, the forecast said.

A small watercraft advisory is in effect through Saturday night for the Chesapeake Bay south of Pooles Island, which is due east of downtown Baltimore.

Sunday is expected to be cloudy early, giving way to a mostly clear afternoon. There will be a north wind between 5 and 10 mph and the high is expected to be 42.

Posted by Jennifer Badie at 8:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Baltimore-based professional meteorologist Eric the Red sent us a head's up that there's a slight chance of flurries this weekend.

"Two chances for 'snow' (emphasize quote-unquote).  One is tonight, as a disturbance to our south produces some light rain and wet snow, [especially] south of Baltimore. A bit of a reprieve ... and then we could see some snow showers Saturday night." He adds, however, that if the light snow Saturday materializes, "it would do nothing more than coat the ground (and that's the "heavy" scenario)."

Some National Weather Service discussion about a clipper system heading toward the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states also mentions a chance for flurries Saturday night:

"THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT...ALTHOUGH INCREASING DPVA AND A COUPLED-JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE ADEQUATE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR LGT PRECIP TO REACH THE ALLEGHENY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. GIVEN LATEST QPF AMOUNTS AND A 15:1 SLR...1-2 INCHES OF SNOW COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WRN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. LGT ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MD AND THE ERN WV PANHANDLE. WITH DOWNSLOPING W-NW FLOW...ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD FLURRY REACHING THE CITIES. TEMPS SAT NGT WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST."

Posted by Kim Walker at 4:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

From The Sun's print editions:

Chances of a white Christmas this year are about as good as the Orioles making the 2012 playoffs, gas prices dipping below $3 a gallon or Donald Trump sporting a mohawk.

Based on history, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts Baltimore’s chance at 10 percent. Ditto the Farmer’s Almanac. The Weather Channel’s long-range forecast shows daily highs at about 50 degrees going into the holiday weekend. For a better than 50-50 chance, travel to northern New England or the Great Lakes region.

UPDATE: Here's what Baltimore professional meteorologist Eric the Red has to say about Christmas weather: 

"After looking like we would get colder and stormier for the end of December, models are backing off almost entirely of this idea. The north Atlantic high is now forecast to be farther south, making it the non-north Atlantic high ... and now, the models show a continuation of a low over Greenland. Classic North Atlantic Shop Vac -- the low to the north spinning counter clockwise, while the high to the south spins clockwise, and in between, a very fast west-to-east flow aloft -- sucking all the cold air out of North America.  We've avoided this for the last 2 winters (we've had a blocking high over Greenland or thereabouts), but I'm beginning to suspect it may end up being our fate this year.  ... If indeed this continues, we will not only see below-normal snowfall, we may struggle to get any snow at all.  ... El Nino and La Nina play a role, but for us, the money is in the North Atlantic Oscillation, which is essentially what we're talking about here."

Posted by Kim Walker at 12:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Winter weather
        

From The Sun's print editions:

Some outlying areas have already experienced their first black ice of the season -- nasty stuff.

A reader left a message on the weather phone, asking how black ice differs from other icy forms.

The short answer is, it doesn't. It's frozen water that's arrived as rain, freezing rain, drizzle, or fog or as runoff that has refrozen. The thin veneer of ice over blacktop is hard to see, especially at night or in low-light conditions and announces its presence to unsuspecting motorists with startling authority.

Posted by Kim Walker at 6:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The snow contest is back by popular demand. Guess how many total inches of snow will accumulate this 2011-2012 season at BWI-Marshall Airport. Add your entry to comments below -- we'll count the ones that come in by the first measurable snowfall of the year. (So far only a trace has fallen at BWI.)

The winner(s), who guess the closest without going over, will get Baltimore Sun swag to be determined and, of course, blog bragging rights.

Some things to consider:

Last year's snowfall was 14.4 inches.

Here's Frank Roylance's winter weather outlook article from earlier this year.

Average monthly and seasonal snow totals.

Or you can take some advice from two-time weather contest winner Laura Kirk.

Good luck.  

Baltimore Sun file photo 

Posted by Kim Walker at 6:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (10)
Categories: Winter weather
        

I heard from a reader who wondered what Baltimore professional meteorologist Eric the Red thought about yesterday's forecasts missing the mark. Perfect timing because I just heard from him:

"The killer with this event was the fact that the storm had zero wrap-around precip. Instead, there was a very sharp, linear north-south back edge to it ... so despite the fact that the changeover to snow occurred hours earlier than I thought, the pcp also ended hours earlier than I thought.  The net result:  a big swing and a miss. I guess if there's any consolation, it's that if you're gonna get one wrong, it might as well be an event where realistically we were looking at 1 to 2 inches, 3 tops."

Eric added some thoughts for the outlook for the rest of the month: 

"For what it's worth, took a look at some of the upper-air forecast charts, and it does not look good for snow fans for the rest of December.  Instead of a blocking high over the northern Atlantic - like we've had the past 2 winters - we have the exact opposite... a strong low.  With its strong counter clockwise spin, it tends to pull the cold air east out of North America and into northern Europe.  I affectionately call it the North Atlantic Shop Vac. ... So our already-low odds of a white Christmas are even lower.  ... "

Posted by Kim Walker at 2:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

While there wasn't much snow, there was record rainfall for Dec. 7 in Baltimore.

According to the National Weather Service, 2.38 inches fell, breaking the previous record for the date set in 1976 at  1.27 inches.

Across the region, observed overnight totals from the CoCoRaHS Network:

Waldorf:  4.18

Odenton: 2.73

North Laurel: 2.36

Catonsville: 2.12

Bel Air: 2:03

As far as snow goes, the National Weather Service measured 2 inches in Fort Ritchie in Frederick Washington County and 1 inch in Frostburg, Allegany County.

Posted by Kim Walker at 12:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

With the possibility of snow tonight, the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene is warning people to be prepared for winter weather.

Hypothermia contributed to 4 deaths in Maryland this fall, the department said, including 2 seniors (Montgomery and Allegany) and 2 adults (Harford and Wicomico).

The department makes the following tips:

Cover your head.
Wear several layers of lightweight, loose-fitting clothing to trap air for insulation
Cover your mouth with a scarf to protect lungs from direct cold air. Cover your ears and the lower part of your face, too.
Wear mittens rather than fingered gloves.
Wear warm leg coverings and heavy socks, or two pairs of lightweight socks.
Wear waterproof boots or sturdy shoes. 

DHMH also reminded people to be aware of the dangers of carbon monoxide poisoning from heating devices.

Posted by Kim Walker at 2:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Update 2: The northern part of Baltimore County is still under winter weather advisory with 1-2 inches in the forecast.

Update: The winter weather advisory has been cancelled.

Check out our latest weather story on The Breaking News blog. Forecasters are calling for 2 inches of rain, with a flood watch in effect until tonight.

There is also a winter weather advisory for the area. From the National Weather Service:

"WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EST THURSDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...RAIN CHANGING TO LOCALLY HEAVY WET SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW IN THE LATE EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. "

Posted by Kim Walker at 11:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings, Winter weather
        

The Washington Post is reporting on the federal government's new snow policy to prevent another gridlock crisis that happened during last January's rush hour storm.

From the Post: 

"The Office of Personnel Management now says it will make the call much earlier to either close the government or allow unscheduled leave or telework—and play it safe at the risk of overreacting should just a few flakes fall. ...

If the weather turns bad once they’re at the office, the 300,000 federal employees in the Washington area who don’t leave by a deadline will be told to shelter in place, a policy that’s sure to evoke images of Cold War fallout shelters and biological attacks." 

Parents who need to pick up their children would be exempt, according to the article.

Read more here. 

Posted by Kim Walker at 1:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

This is some sort of cruel joke, right? The old weather guy goes out with not just a farewell cake, but an October snowstorm, too? Really?!?

Alas, that appears to be the case. The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Storm Watch for all of Western Maryland, and for the northern tier of counties including Carroll, Frederick, Harford and northewrn Baltimore County.

The Watch calls for the "potential" for five or more inches of snow in portions of the state on Saturday. It would begin overnight tonight as rain, then change over to snow Saturday morning and continue through Saturday afternoon.

The snow forecast map (clickable, above) is a bit less outrageous. It shows a small pocket of 6-inch accumulations in extreme northwestern Carroll and northeastern Frederick, surrounded by gradually diminishing totals of 4, 2 and 1-inch totals. For Baltimore and its immediate suburbs, they're looking for less than an inch. And to the south and east of I-95, there's just rain.

But, hey ... it's still October, already. Not even Hallowe'en. The snowiest day on record for Baltimore in October was the 2.5 inches that fell Oct. 30, 1925. In fact, there have been only four days since official record-keeping began here that ANY measurable snow has fallen on Baltimore.

Oct. 30, 1925:  2.5 inches

Oct. 19, 1940:  0.4 inch

Oct. 20, 1940:  0.9 inch

Oct. 10, 1979:  0.3 inch

An inch of snow at BWI this weekend could make this the second-snowiest October day on record for Baltimore. 

Here's how AccuWeather.com sees the storm, which could deliver as much as 6 to 12 inches from western Virginia and Maryland to central New England. And here (below) is some of what Eric the Red and Prof. Jeff Halverson, at UMBC, are saying about Saturday's snow forecast:

Continue reading "Trick or Treat? Five or more in. of snow due Sat." »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (10)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It is way too early in the season to be writing about snow, but I don't see how I can avoid it this afternoon. Both Eric the Red and AccuWeather.com are posting snow chatter, even snow maps. It's Oct. 27!

A coastal storm is expected to crank up on Saturday, dragging unusually cold (for this time of year) air down from the northeast, and throwing a lot of Atlantic moisture into it. AccuWeather.com forecasters are calling for as much as 6 to 10 inches of wet snow for inland portions of the Northeast, from Massachusetts west and south into northwestern New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.

For us, they're predicting up to 3 to 6 inches in part of the mountain west, and 1 to 3 inches across a swath of the northernmost Maryland counties. We'll see. The biggest October snowfall on record for Baltimore was the 2.5-inch snowfall on Oct. 29, 1925.

AccuWeather.com's Elliot Abrams said the amount of snow the I-95 corridor sees - if any - will depend on how the temperatures line up. A few degrees either way will make all the difference, so elevation, distance from the still-warm Chesapeake Bay or the Atlantic will be critical to who among us sees white on Saturday. 

"The bulk of the storm just north and west of I-95 will be wet snow, but even in cities from Washington, D.C. and Baltimore to Wilmington, Del., Philadelphia, Trenton, N.J., New York City, Providence, R.I. and Boston, rain will become mixed with or change over completely to wet snow," AccuWeather.com said.

The National Weather Service in Sterling is less encouraging to snow-lovers in the I-95 corridor: "This forecast includes a significant shift from previous forecast, including more widespread rain/snow wording. Cannot rule out possibility of advisory-level snow in Shenandoah Valley and at elevation. Such wording will be featured in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Precipitation expected to remain as rain in Interstate 95 corridor owing to warm surface temperatures."

Eric the Red is pretty high on the snow forecast, but leaves it mostly to our west:

"It seems to me that we are now in for an unprecedented  Mid-Atlantic and Northeast snow for inland locales, and a wet snow or wind-driven rain closer to I-95." He sees the potential for "some record-setting snow in the Piedmont and Mountains of Va., W.Va., Md., Pa. and points northeast."

He foresees "mostly cold rain" for the I-95 corridor. "But if the storm strengthens enough and tracks right along the coast, wet snow could enter the equation ... It appears that precipitation may change back to all rain in the Eastern Piedmont and immediate burbs, and then change back to snow as the storm winds up and begins to draw cold air back into the center."

"In areas that receive mostly snow, falling branches and trees and toppled power lines will be a big concern. Winds will also be an issue."

Nice. And it's not even Hallowe'en. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

One of our regular forecast contributors here, a professional Baltimore meteorologist we call Eric the Red, has posted his winter weather forecast for the season coming up. And like the AccuWeather.com forecast issued a few weeks ago, he expects another near-normal snow total this time around.

The 30-year average snow total for BWI-Marshall Airport is 20.2 inches. Last winter saw 14.4 inches.

Taking account of the La Nina conditions developing in the Pacific for the second winter season in a row, as well as a basket of other climate factors, Eric says the signs this year point to "near- to below-normal snowfall, just like last year, but not a snowless winter."

Looking for winters when similar conditions prevailed, he found these Baltimore analogs: 

1950:  6.2 inches

1962:  19.6 inches 

1974:  12.2 inches

1985:  15.6 inches

2008:  9.1 inches 

"All these winters are consistent with the reasoning of near- to below-normal snow. In addition, La Nina is associated with near- to below-normal temperatures in the central and eastern U.S. and tends to be windy here, too," he said.

"The wild card is the NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation], which has been consistently negative (a blocking high over the northern Atlantic) for the past several winters ... and this can change everything. If and where the block(s) set up can throw a serious monkey wrench into the equation - think New England last year, our record-setting winter 2 years ago.

"A blocking high/negative NAO is almost essential for big snows around here, and forecasting this feature is not feasible beyond several weeks. Persistence implies that we will be dealing with it again, however."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will issue its winter weather forecast Thursday. Stay tuned.

(SUN PHOTO: Amy Davis, Jan. 26, 2011)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Forecasts, Winter weather
        

Mostly as forecast, Sunday morning's snowfall was confined mostly to Southern Maryland, with some additional accumulations reported from the Lower Eastern Shore. BWI-Marshall Airport reported light snow from the 3 a.m. hour through the 7 a.m. hour. But forecasters at Sterling say it was melting as it landed, and will be reported as only a "trace."

The Winter Weather Advisories for Southern Maryland were lifted around 10 a.m.

Here's the National Weather Service's updated forecast map through 6 p.m. Sunday. Click to enlarge. This version makes it pretty clear where colder, drier air moving down from the north or northeast prevented enough southern moisture from getting in to produce snow.

Here is the report from the CoCoRaHS Network, still with the highly suspect 5-inch report from Waldorf. And here is more from the National Weather Service.

The NWS in Sterling notes: "In the last 50 years, from mid-March to late April, [Washington] D.C. has received 0.1 inch or more [of snow] 15 times, so [that's] a 30 percent chance. Baltimore has had that occur 26 times in the last 50 years. So [that's] about a 50 percent chance of occurrence."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

With the vernal equinox approaching on Sunday, I think it's time to close the 2010-2011 Sun Snow Contest and declare a winner.

The official tally from the National Weather Service station at BWI-Marshall Airport came to 14.4 inches of snow from Dec. 1 through today. That was 3.8 inches below the 30-year average of 18.2 inches for Baltimore. Here's how it played out:

Days with flakes: 24

Days with measurable snow:  8

Days with only a trace:  16

December:  1.2 inches

January:  10.7 inches

February:  2.5 inches 

Biggest storm: 7.6 inches on Wednesday Jan. 26, the one that changed rain over to snow and ice in a flash, catching thousands of Baltimore and Washington commuters on slick and snowy roads, during the evening rush. 

While it's still possible to see more measurable snow as we move through the end of March and even into early April, we're going to call the question today. If we do get more snow, we'll just have to award another cheap prize.

So, the winner of the (First) Annual Sun Snow Contest is Laura Kirk, of Owings Mills, a technical writer whose 14-inch prediction came closest without going over the BWI total.

"Wow! How cool is that!" she said when told of her good fortune. Asked how she pulled it off, she said:

"You mean, beyond sheer luck? Actually, you gave me the strategy. You mentioned in a blog entry before the contest began that this was a La Nina year and that typically those years are lower in snowfall.

"And, I had a feeling that after last year's huge overage, we just wouldn't get that much snow this year. I figured we'd have three to four 4-inchers. Not quite how we got to 14.4", but oh well."

"So winning is especially sweet for two reasons: 1) I didn't win the snow pile melt contest last winter...; 2) in that hellacious snow we had at the end of January ... I was hit by a pickup with a plow sliding around a turn (no injuries). This is my revenge on the snow. Hah. Take that."

Close, but ineligible for the cigar, were Paul Mittermeier, at 13.7 inches, and "Andrew," at a heartbreaking 14.5 inches.

WAY off the mark were our low-baller, "Ms. Nash," at 7 inches, and Ken Marsh who, at 65 inches, clearly didn't think he got enough snow last year.

Congratulations to Laura Kirk; your fabulous prize is in the mail (as soon as I get an address). And thanks to all who entered. We look forward to entries from you all for the "90-Degree Daze Contest" this summer, and to next year's exciting "Second Annual Sun Snow Contest." 

Think Hot! Think Snow!

(PHOTOS: Top: Pablo Monsivais, AP; Bottom: The Sun, Gene Sweeney, Jr.)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The measurements are still coming in this morning, but the overnight storm seems to left after making a deposit of 5 to 7 inches in some spots.

The National Weather Service is reporting a high of 7 inches in Bel Air. The latest from the CoCoRaHS Network shows 6 inches in Taneytown, in Carroll; 5 inches on the ground from Westminster to Long Green in Baltimore County. We have 4.5 inches (and 19 degrees) here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. Here are a few more. I 'll add others as I can get to them:

Mt. Airy, Carroll:  4.1 inches

Cumberland, Allegany:  4 inches

Elkridge, Howard:  3.5 inches

Columbia, Howard:  3.5 inches

Ellicott City, Howard:  2.7 inches 

Bishopville, Worcester:  0.6 inch

Waldorf, Charles:  0.5 inch

There is no report from BWI yet, but the NWS is reporting 1.8 inches in Severn. Here are more snow tallies from the folks at Sterling.

Okay, so it was not a monumental storm. But it proves that winter is not over in Central Maryland after the first 70-degree weather in February. Schools are closed across the region, and my favorite teacher is still sawing wood. On the other hand, the plows have just made three passes on our street and our most intrepid commuters are out and gone. Others are still digging.

Skies have already cleared, and Venus was still bright in the southeast when I got up. Forecasters are calling for a sunny day, but cold, with highs only in the low 30s as Canadian high pressure moves in behind the storm, about 15 degrees below the average for this time of year.

Temperatures will moderate as we reach mid-week, with a chance for some rain Thursday. We'll be back in the 50s by the weekend. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It would have been hard to design a storm better suited to slam the region during both rush hours on Wednesday. After a surprise couple of inches in the morning delivered an uppercut to commuters making their way to work before daybreak, the back end of the same system swung a hard right to the chin in time for the evening rush.

The result was commuter purgatory. Emails from colleagues stuck on the JFX for hours, or on clogged city streets, encouraged us stragglers in the newsroom to find hotel rooms. I've just made it home after a night with nothing but a warm bed, dirty clothes and a hotel toothbrush.

For the record, city streets - at least the main routes downtown - were scraped and salted to mostly wet pavement by 6:30 a.m. The JFX was just wet, although the shoulders were lined with abandoned cars. The Beltway and I-83 north were just wet. York Road by 7 a.m. was still rough, with lots of packed snow and ice.

Our local streets were plowed but snow-covered. I got in just fine, except for the plow-plug where my car was supposed to go. I'd post a photo, but my camera is still back in the newsroom.

But enough about me. Below are some snow totals from the CoCoRaHS Network. Damascus takes the brass ring on that list this morning, with 12.3 inches. The official total at BWI-Marshall Airport was 7.8 inches through midnight. That brings the season's total to 12.1 inches, just a half-foot shy of the seasonal average for Baltimore.

And click here for the snow tally and snow map from the National Weather Service in Sterling, Va. Winfield, in Carroll County, would seem to have the lead there, at 12 inches

Elkridge, Howard Co,:  11 inches

Catonsville, Baltimore Co.:  9.5 inches

Kingsville, Baltimore Co.:  9.4 inches

Silver Spring, Montgomery:  9.3 inches

The WeatherDeck in Cockeysville:  9.0 inches 

Frederick:  9.0 inches

Cumberland, Allegany:  9.0 inches

Mt. Airy, Carroll:  8 inches

Jarrettsville, Harford;  6 inches

Deale, Anne Arundel:  3.5 inches

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (8)
Categories: Winter weather
        

While the forecast did call for snow and/or rain in the early morning hours, I don't think anyone was quite prepared for the accumulations - up to 3 inches in some spots - that we woke up to this morning.

Prof. Jeff Halverson, at the University of Maryland Baltimore County, has offered an explanation. It's called a "cold air damming" - a wedge of cold, dense air that had settled in hung east of the mountains despite advancing warm, wet air from the South, and wouldn't let go. It was enough to make more of the predicted overnight precipitation fall as snow:

"[T]hat became entrenched east of the Blue Ridge overnight, and this kept the morning precip falling as a frozen mixture.  "The Wedge" is notoriously hard to predict.  The warm air push from the south was not strong enough to scour out this dense air mass.

From here, he says, "Expect a quick, hard hit of heavy precip returning around 1 pm through about 9-10 pm tonight, then a quick cutoff.  Most forecasters are predicting 4"-8" but there will be embedded bands that are very narrow, and extremely hard to predict more than 1-2 hours in advance where these will set up.  These are the "thundersnow" corridors. 

"Timing will be ugly - visibility could drop to near zero in the heart of the evening rush, not so much from wind-blown snow, but big flakes falling at 1"-3"/hour.  Interestingly, the [NWS meso-scale model] is predicting a narrow swath of heavy ice accumulation just north of  the I-95 corridor and mainly rain along and east of I-95. If you buy this model, the heavy snow stays across our far west and north burbs."

Here's the official forecast for BWI-Marshall from Sterling. Here's the Winter Storm Warning, posted for the northern and western counties.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Can we agree that the main arteries - I-95 and Beltway for example - were a mess early this morning? I think we can. There have been numerous accidents, and lane reductions according to the traffic reports.

So why is it, after the SHA did such a great job pre-treating for previous little snowfalls this winter, that they opted out this time? Here's what The Sun is reporting this morning:

"The State Highway Administration did not pre-treat the roads because "all the forecasts were saying this was going to start as a rain event," said spokeswoman Kim Frum. "That would have been a huge waste of resources."

"However, crews were mobilized between 3 a.m. and 4 a.m., anticipating a need to address conditions on bridges, which freeze first, she said. As a result, they were able to quickly clean up primary roads, according to Frum.

"By 4:30 a.m., most of the main lines were just wet," she said."

Just wet? Really? Any morning commuters out there want to share their experiences from this morning's "rush" hour?

I can't say which forecasters the SHA folks were listening to. But, for the record, the National Weather Service had been predicting overnight "snow and rain" for days before the flakes actually began to fall.

Granted, they always expressed it in terms of "snow or rain," or "snow and rain." On Monday they were talking about the storm being primarily a rain event, at least during the day Wednesday. But the forecast always called for at least some snow overnight. And by Tuesday afternoon this was shaping up as a significant storm. Winter Storm Watches were up for almost the entire state. The start times fell after daybreak, but wouldn't that be reason to get the roads ready? 

So where were the trucks? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (29)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Puh... Looks like we got just about what forecasters, at the end, said we would. Maybe that's a relief to most. The roads seem to be in fine shape. But it has to be another disappointment for those Marylanders who love to see a good snowstorm now and then.

Somehow, school kids (and teachers) in the northern counties will get a more leisurely morning out of it. Two-hour school delays are in place from Carroll across to Cecil.

The reports are still coming in, but at 7 a.m., it looks like Bel Air, with 2.3 inches on the ground at daybreak according to the NWS/ Sterling snow map , gets the brass ring.  CoCoRaHS tallies put Reisterstown in the lead, with 1.9 inches.

So why are we even bothering with this? Perhaps to make the forecast for next Monday night and Tuesday look more interesting. Models are sending another low across the South, and keeping cold air in place just to the north. Sterling is putting the snow chances at 40 percent. But this morning's discussion also has the possibility it will become a drizzle and freezing drizzle event. Nice.

Anyway, AccuWeather.com (map) is watching the models and urging readers to do the same. As our other prognosticators check in with their guesses later today, we'll add them below.

In the meantime, Here's Eric the Red explaining what went wrong with his forecast:

"Well... once again, I've got some explaining to do.  A last-second twist to the forecast left many areas high and dry.  The low nudged just a bit farther north... and with that nudge, 2 things happened: 1) Warmer air on the south side of the storm ended up farther north, causing the precip to the south to fall as rain or rain/snow mix. 2) The southern edge of the precip ended up farther north.

"On a continental scale, we're talking an almost inperceptible blip... but on a local scale, we were right on the line, so the implications were large. In north-central and northeast MD, 2" (locally more) fell.  I noticed at the Halethorpe train station, maybe a half inch, and by the time I got to DC, nothing." 

Here's the overnight storm on radar. And here, on the jump, is Eric the Red's take on next week's storm. In brief: Lots of potential. Lots of uncertainty.

Continue reading "Maybe next time ..." »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (15)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The snow, sleet and freezing rain that have put a glaze on Central Maryland were forecast to end as early as 9 a.m. But the mess they have left behind will not go away quite that quickly.

The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Storm Warning until noon for Central Maryland, including Baltimore city and county, Frederick, Carroll, Howard, Montgomery and Harford counties. In this case the warning means we can expect up to a quarter-inch of ice accumulations before it ends between 9 and noon. Radar shows the precipitation already mostly clear of the region.

UPDATE, 10 a.m.: The Warning has been replaced by a Winter Weather Advisory for Carroll, Baltimore and Harford counties:

"BUT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE BALTIMORE AREA.
THIS WILL GO UNTIL NOON.

"EXISTING ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST DC SUBURBS AND EXTREME EASTERN WV PANHANDLE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TIL
NOON FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE."

UPDATE: 11 a.m.: The NWS has canceled the Winter Weather Advisory. The northwest suburbs will remain near freezing into the early afternoon. Untreated roads and sidewalks will remain slippery.

.Taneytown has reported 3 inches of snow and sleet accumulation. Frostburg has 2 inches. But the real story today is ice. Here's the NWS snow and ice map.

The storm does not seem to have caused very many power outages. BGE's website is reporting only a few hundred customers still out this morning, and another 1,600 or so already restored.

Farther south, in PG and Arundel and points south, the precipitation will end between 7 and 9 a.m. after depositing only a few hundredths of and inch of ice.

The glaze has closed or delayed classes throughout the area, with some serious accidents across the region. The main routes, however seemed well treated in advance of the storm.

The good news is that temperatures have been rising all night, and hovered near the freezing mark at daybreak. That trend should continue, with highs later today (Tuesday) in the upper 30s.

But don't expect the sun to come bursting through anytime today. The forecast calls for rain chances to continue through Wednesday morning, with clouds finally breaking up in the afternoon. Colder weather returns Wednesday night, with highs only in the 30s, and a chance for snow showers Thursday night into Friday.

So how are you coping with the ice? How are the roads and sidewalks in your location? Will you be telecommuting this morning? Any tree damage? Power out?  Or is this a non-event for you?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (7)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The tallies are starting to come in this morning from Tuesday's snowstorm, and it looks like Bel Air, in Harford County, leads the early returns with one report to the National Weather Service of 4.5 inches of snow.

UPDATE, 1:45 p.m.: Some higher totals have now come in. CoCoRaHS is reporting a 5.5-inch measurement in Whiteford. The NWS map now includes a 5.3-inch measurement from Highland View, and 5.0 inches in Scarboro. All are in northern Harford County. 

So, it looks like the 3-to-5-inch predictions from early yesterday have held up, at least for locations north and east of, say, Loch Raven Reservoir. One to 3 inches is more like it from Washington north and east to Baltimore, with less than an inch south of DC.

The official measurement for Baltimore, at BWI-Marshall Airport, was 2 inches, bringing the season's total to a whopping 3.5 inches.

While it wasn't much, the storm did bring area school officials to cancel classes, or delay openings for an hour or more. Here's the full listing. Just be thankful you're not living in Boston this morning, where the storm is intensifying and preparing to drop up to a foot of snow.

Our snow finally tapered off around 9 or 10 p.m. in most locations. Here is a preliminary rundown on some of the snowfall measurements around the region:

Bel Air: 4.5 inches

Lineboro, Baltimore County: 3.4 inches

Glyndon, Baltimore County:  3.0 inches

New Market:  3.3 inches

Hunt Valley: 3.0 inches

WeatherDeck, Cockeysville:  2.5 inches

Essex:  2.0 inches

Bowie:  2 inches

Columbia:  1.0 inch

Eastport: 0.9 inch

There are more measurements coming in to the CoCoRaHS Network, here. And here is the NWS snowmap.

Forecasters out at Sterling say the cold weather will continue through the weekend before temperatures move back toward seasonal norms. The next precipitation event, on Tuesday, is expected to be rain.

You'll find Eric the Red's port-mortem analysis of the storm on the jump, below.

(SUN PHOTO: Snow buzzards over the WeatherDeck, Frank Roylance)

Continue reading "Bel Air tops area snowfall charts" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

You'd think we'd have had enough after last year's relentless winter, which broke Baltimore snowfall records at 77 inches before it ended. But at least some Marylanders are watching the skies for this next little storm as if they hadn't seen snow in years.

"Light flurries started in Annapolis," Andrea emailed me a few minutes ago.

"Flakes have started falling in DC 8)" reported Colleen.

Yes. The SNOW is coming. Washington Reagan National, Quantico and Andrews Air Force Base are all reporting light snow. There are flurries at Dulles and Fort Belvoir. Pax River NAS reports sleet. Here's the radar loop.

UPDATE, 2:45 p.m.: Steady snow now in downtown Baltimore. Let the rush hour begin.

UPDATED UPDATE, 3 p.m.: Never mind.

The forecast here remains about the same. There is a Winter Weather Advisory up for almost the entire state, effective from 4 p.m. this afternoon until 6 a.m. Wednesday.

UPDATE, 1:50 p.m.: The accumulation forecasts have slipped some this afternoon. The 4-5-inch bands on the map have disappeared. Two to 4 inches seems to be the rule for the Baltimore area. One to 3 inches are more likely to our south and west.

No flakes out my window at Calvert and Centre, but the barometer at The Sun's weather station has fallen off a cliff, signaling the approach of low-pressure systems along the coast and from the Ohio Valley. They will merge off the coast and intensify, setting up the rest of the Northeast, and especially southern New England, for a big snowstorm.

(SUN PHOTO: Doug Kapustin 2007)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (5)
Categories: Winter weather
        

All that excitement about a Christmas weekend snowstorm, and we come home to ... nothing?

Well, as hard as it is for many to believe, it was a very near miss. Less than 50 miles separated Baltimore from significant snow. Here's the accumulation map from the NWS in Sterling. Watch and Warning coordinator Chris Strong is also asking for some feedback on the weather service's policies regarding advance warning on snow accumulations:

"While the Christmas weekend storm of 2010 has largely spared our area from significant snow, it sometimes can be storms like this to examine how the process of informing everyone can be improved.  While some storms, such as many of last winter's, can have high confidence several days out, not all do - as was the case for our area this time.  As you can see from the map ... the area of 5+ inches of snow (our warning criteria) was just less than 50 miles from the DC/Baltimore section of the I-95 corridor.

"As policy we at NWS Baltimore/Washington:

* Mention the possibility of significant snow in our Hazardous Weather Outlook out to 7 days in advance. [in this case it was being being mentioned 7 days in advance]
* Limit specific accumulation forecasts out to 36 hours in advance. [which helps limit the wild swings that would frequently happen with more extended accumulation forecasts]

"I would like to encourage you to pass on any comments you have on how the process worked (or didn't work) to me directly. While certainly "I would like a more accurate forecast with more lead time" is a goal for all of us, I would like to hear any thoughts on our accumulation policy listed above, or any other constructive criticisms you might have for future events."

Feel free to leave your comments here. They read the MarylandWeather blog in Sterling.

BTW, we had plenty of snow in Erie, Pa. Snowed every day.

Lots of weather folks with regrets today. Here's Eric the Red as the snow faded for Baltimore Sunday morning:

"Well...  our first big storm is looking more and more like an egg-in-face moment.  I think 8" would be a miracle at this point.  2-4" is more like it in the metro area, perhaps less, with little if any snow farther west.  I guess I should've listened to my earlier thought... no high to the north = no big MD snowstorm.  The killer for me was the models, most of which avertised a serious winter storm.  Given that these things are processing more info in a minute than I can in a week, it's often hard to ignore them.  My bad."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Winter weather
        

While the Baltimore area avoided a snow disaster this weekend and is just dealing with high winds, other places on the East Coast have been hit hard.

Marylanders, are you stuck in the snowstorm in New York and New England and can't get home? Want your plight featured in the Baltimore Sun? Contact reporter Nicole Fuller at (410) 818-6212 or nicole.fuller@baltsun.com

Getty Images photo of snow removal equipment at Newark Liberty International Airport. See more East Coast storm photos here.

Posted by Kim Walker at 2:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Fighting strong winds that threaten to undo their work, snowplow and salt crews continued to clear Maryland roads early Monday morning, especially in parts of the Eastern Shore, Cecil County and northern Harford County, state highway officials said.

Charlie Gischlar, a spokesman for the State Highway Administration, urged drivers to use extra caution when using Route 50 to travel to and from the Eastern Shore region, as parts of the highway still have some isolated snow patches.

High wind gusts, in some places reaching more than 45 mph, have been pushing snow back into already cleared areas, Gischlar said.

“In the rural areas we could have some lanes open and come back out on our next pass and they’ll be covered again,” he said.

The National Weather Service has a wind advisory in effect until 9 p.m. Monday for much of the Baltimore metropolitan area, as well as parts of Allegany county and Charles county.

“The big enemy today is going to be the wind, so wherever you go just take it slow,” Gischlar said.

Plow and salt crews are also out in southern and western Maryland, Gischlar said, who said he expected road conditions to improve as the day goes on.

“As soon as the sun starts to heat things up we should see some rapid improvement,” he said.

Gischlar recommended commuters check the state highway website for updates on traffic conditions and road closures

    --Yeganeh June Torbati

Posted by Anica Butler at 9:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Travel, Winter weather
        

The Baltimore area is now expected to get 1-2 inches of snow, according to the latest Winter Weather Advisory from the National Weather Service. While the snow totals have gone down, the service continues to forecast a windy and cold evening with gusts up to 35 mph for this afternoon, increasing to 40 mph overnight. Temps in the lower to mid-20s.

Posted by Kim Walker at 2:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Forecasts, Winter weather
        

Baltimoresun.com has a page pulling in the #mdsnow comments from Twitter. Check it out here.

Posted by Kim Walker at 1:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Now the National Weather Service has begun to fall into line. The forecasters out at Sterling have begun to lower their estimates of our snow risks for the weekend, dropping the snow hazard on Sunday from 50 percent to 30 percent. But they remind us that this storm's track, while trending away from our shores, is not yet entirely certain:

"A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

"WHILE LATEST FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC...THERE DOES REMAIN A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM TO THE WEST WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA."

Maryland residents could still see flakes in the air as early as Saturday afternoon as a weak storm system - the first of the weekend - moves down from the northwest, according to the forecast from Sterling. If it manages to hold itself together as it crosses the Appalachians, we could see some light accumulation.

Then, the second act begins, with the storm intensifying off the Southeastern states on Sunday and moving up the coast. The latest model runs keep the storm pretty well off shore. If they're proven right, we may see nothing from it. A shift more to the west could bring us some accumulating snow Sunday into Monday, Sterling said: 

"WE CANT COMPLETELY LET THE GUARD DOWN JUST YET AS THERE REMAINS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM. THEREFORE ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Forecasts, Sky Notes, Winter weather
        

It sure isn't a lot of snow, certainly not by last winter's standards. But the first measurable snowfall of the season is getting off to a quick start and seems poised to mess up a perfectly nice evening rush hour commute.

UPDATE, 11:20 a.m.: The snow has begun falling in downtown Baltimore. If you're out there driving around, let us know if road conditions begin to deteriorate, or if highway crews are staying ahead of it. Send us a comment and describe. Thanks!

UPDATE, 12:20 p.m.: Foot's Forecast is calling for 4 inches in Annapolis; 2.5 inches at BWI-Marshall; 2.5 inches at Bel Air; 2.8 inches in Dundalk; 2.75 inches in Reisterstown.

By 12:30 p.m. the snow was sticking - or "laying," as they say in Baltimore - to city streets, and traffic was slowing down. Starting to become a traffic issue.

UPDATE, 2:45 p.m.: The NWS says they may lift the Winter Weather Advisory early as the storm moves rapidly to the east. But even as the snow stops, the cold will remain. That means icy patches will remain a hazard into tomorrow. More snow is possible for the weekend, but the computer models disagree on that. More later. Earlier post resumes:

Forecasters at the National Weather Service are predicting "about an inch" of snow for the northern tier of counties farthest from the Virginia storm track. But places south of that, and on the Eastern Shore, could see as much as 3 inches before it all winds down this evening. Temperatures are  forecast to remain in the upper 20s, making this an all-snow event for Maryland.

Snow was already falling at 10 a.m. in Washington, D.C. Here are the Winter Weather Advisories. And here's how the forecasts break down:

1 inch: Frederick, Carroll, Baltimore, Harford counties, including the cities of Frederick, Westminster and Baltimore. Beginning around 11 a.m., contiuing through the evening rush and ending around  9 p.m. "Travel difficulties... Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities and use caution while driving."

1 to 2 inches: District of Columbia, Montgomery, Howard, Prince George's, Anne Arundel counties. Beginning in late morning, continuing into the early evening, and through the evening rush hour. "Travel difficulties ... Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities and use caution while driving."

1 to 3 inches: Charles, Calvert and St. Mary's counties. Schools are closed. Snow is falling, will continue through the early evening. "Travel difficulties ...Be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities and use caution while driving.

1 to 3 inches: Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset counties, Maryland beaches. SNow beginning in late morning, continuing into early evening. "Travel difficulties... Be prepared for snow-covered roads and limited visibilities and use caution while driving."

1 to 3 inches:  Southern Delaware, Talbot and Caroline counties. "Largest impact should be during the evening commute from school and work. Snow will accumulate quickly on untreated roadways as the ground is cold. The first widespread snow of the season normally causes numerous accidents. Please be very careful driving later today."

Eric the Red is agreeing with one model that sets the storm's "peak intensity" between 1 and 4 p.m., "and it's pretty much done by 7. A quick-hitting 1-2 inches seems likely now in central MD, closer to an inch in northern MD, and perhaps 2-3 inches south of BWI. Northern and Central VA are still looking at 2-4 inches, perhaps more. I think this is reasonable."

Here's Foot's Forecast. And here's the storm-total radar loop.

(SUN PHOTO: Clarksville, Md., Kim Hairston, Dec. 16, 2010)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (11)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Go south, snow lovers! But drive carefully. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for three counties in Southern Maryland and for three more the Lower Eastern Shore.

Forecasters say those folks in Charles, Calvert and St. Mary's counties can expect 1 to 3 inches of snow between 8 a.m. and 9 p.m. Thursday. Temperatures will hover in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

In Dorchester, Wicomico and Somerset counties on the Shore - including the beaches - the forecast calls for 1 to 2 inches of snow between 10 a.m. and 7 p.m.

Says NWS Sterling:

"A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING."

As for the rest of us up here in the urban corridor, the forecast holds a Hazardous Weather Outlook message noting snow to our south. But the expectation for BWI-Marshall is a 40 percent chance for "less than a half-inch" of snow accumulation. Here's the NWS forecast office in Sterling:

"THERE MAY BE A SHARP SNOW CUTOFF IN THE [FORECAST AREA] ..W/
CLOSE TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE RECEIVING LITTLE TO NONE. HIGHLAND TO
NELSON/ALBE [COUNTIES IN VA.] LOOKS TO RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW...UP TO 4".

"GREENE TO ST. MARYS [IN MARYLAND] SHOULD RECEIVE 2-3". DC METRO UP TO 1". BECAUSE OF THIS WE`VE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISRY FOR THURS WELL SOUTH OF DC. IT MAY BE THAT A "1" FOR THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE" ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE GREATER DC AREA..."

Meanwhile, a Winter Storm Warning has been posted for central, southern and southwestern Virginia, including Richmond. Two to 5 inches of snow is expected in some areas. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

This week's unusually cold weather has contributed to the death of an elderly Anne Arundel County resident, according to state health officials. The death was the third this fall attributed in part to hypothermia. All were 65 or older and all had underlying illnesses that contributed to their deaths.

Maryland's Health Secretary, John M. Colmers, urged Marylanders to stay warm as temperatures drop. "Check on friends and neighbors, especially seniors who may be living alone. A little care and awareness will help us avoid these tragedies," he said.

The first two deaths involved a person in Cecil County in late October, and a Baltimore City resident in early November. Temperatures in the region at that time were averaging about 3.5 degrees below normal. Since Dec. 1 the mercury has averaged more than 5 degrees below normal.

After a brief warmup this weekend, temperatures are expected to drop again, with highs early next week near 30 degrees, and lows in the teens. Average highs at this time of year in Baltimore are around 46 degrees.

Last year, 42 Marylanders died in circumstances in which hypothermia played a role, state health officials said.

Signs of hypothermia include uncontrollable shivering, cold, pale skin, numbness, fatigue, poor circulation, disorientation, slurred speech and bluish or puffy skin.

Tips for dealing with cold weather can be found at www.dhmh.maryland.gov/ Click on "Hypothermia and Frostbite."

(SUN PHOTO: Barbara Haddock Taylor, January 2010)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

A surprise snow squall was causing numerous accidents in Central Maryland at mid-day Friday as light accumulations created slippery conditions on some roadways.

Baltimore County Police reported one person with "life-threatening injuries" after an accident on Jarrettsville Pike in Jacksonville, between Stansbury Mill and Manor roads.

"A bread truck truck and a passenger car were involved," said police spokeswoman Louise Rogers-Feher. But she had no further information on the accident, which occurred shortly after 1 p.m.

Police counted 21 more crashes around Baltimore County, most of them in the Cockeysville and Franklin precincts. There were some injuries, Rogers-Feher said, "but nothing major."

The storm slicked roads in Carroll County, too, police said.

"We have dozens of accidents right now," said Sgt. Alfred A "Andy" Eways, at the Westminster barracks of the Maryland State Police. "Fortunately, right now, it appears everything at this point is property damage."

"We also have numerous disabled vehicles, either getting stuck or skidding into ditches," Eways said.

Salt trucks were dispatched around noontime, but Eways said, "We would encourage anybody who doesn't have an absolute need to be driving in Carroll County not to."

The State Highway Administration's CHART system was reporting four collisions on I-70 from Washington County to Howard County. A tractor-trailer overturned on I-270 in Montgomery County. There were no immediate reports of injuries. Vehicles were pulling to the side of the road because of slippery conditions on I-68 in Cumberland.

SHA spokesman Charlie Gischlar said that in many cases drivers moving at speeds better suited for dry conditions.

"What we're trying to do is get folks to slow down a little for the conditions," he said. "The speed limit is set for ideal conditions, and when they're not ideal, you have to slow down."

Traffic cameras showed clear pavement, but with some snowy patches, at I-70 and U.S. 29 in Howard County, as well as at I-70 and I-270 in Frederick.

State highway officials said salt trucks were sent out, but the roads were not pre-treated because the forecast had called only for flurries.

Howard Silverman, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Sterling, Va., said reports received there indicated no more than a few tenths of an inch of snow.

"It hasn't been a consistent, widespread band of accumulating snow, but there are consistent flurries moving across Virginia and Maryland," he said. "But with temperatures right around freezing, that's not to say it's not capable of creating slippery conditions, and it has been. But it's not a lot of snow."

The possibility of snow today, and its potential impacts, had been discussed by meteorologists, Silverman said. "It was not off the probabilities. But it was not a definite forecast, either."

Temperatures have been well below average in recent days, he noted, and that has probably cooled pavement temperatures and contributed to the traffic problems.

The little storm was expected to pass by after an hour or two, leaving no more than a dusting, Silverman said. "But that's about all it takes."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (14)
Categories: Winter weather
        

My favorite teacher and her very excited First Graders report that it is "snowing to beat the band" out in NW Baltimore County just after noon. They were on their way out for a romp. Any other snow reports out there, campers?

The National Weather Service folks in Sterling say, "While this shouldn't be a big deal, it may result in a few white patches." Here's part of the Short-Term Forecast:

"LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS FREDERICK AND INSIDE THE CAPITAL
BELTWAY BY 12:30 PM...WITH THE BACK EDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS
METROPOLITAN BALTIMORE BETWEEN 1 AND 2PM. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE
WILL RECEIVE A FEW SNOWFLAKES...BUT A FEW COMMUNITIES MAY RECEIVE
A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS."

In fact, it is 34 degrees and snowing lightly here at Calvert and Centre streets. Let the winter begin! The forecast beyond today calls for some milder temperatures, reaching the mid-40s for Saturday and Sunday at BWI.

Rain is expected to develop late Saturday night or early Sunday morning, with a quarter- to a half-inch possible Sunday, ending in snow showers early Monday morning.

Next week will be sharply colder, with highs near 30 degrees and overnight lows in the teens before moderating at mid-week.

(SUN PHOTO: Window frost, Frank Roylance)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (9)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Winter Storm Warnings continue in far western Maryland Tuesday, with local amounts up to two feet possible in western Allegany County as Great Lakes moisture continues to ride stiff northwest winds up the western slopes of the Alleghenies, and fall as snow.

The National Weather Service is reporting a storm total of more than 5 inches in Frostburg, in Allegany County. Across the line in West Virginia, Bayard, in Grant County is reporting 23.8 inches of snow this morning. 

The cold and windy conditions that have made fire-fighting so miserable in Baltimore this week are forecast to continue through Wednesday as low-pressure over Quebec draws frigid Canadian air south across the lakes. That will also keep the upslope snows falling in Western Maryland. Wind-chill advisories may be needed out there as wind-chill readings drop toward minus-5 degrees. Actual temperature readings could reach single digits.

The winds will finally calm and temperatures will rise toward the seasonal norms later in the week as high pressure settles into the region. Weekend highs should reach the mid-40s by the weekend before a new storm system reaches the area, with sharply colder weather moving in behind that.

Forecasters at Sterling are still predicting rain with that system east of the mountains, beginning late Saturday. That could change to a mix of rain and snow as temperatures drop Sunday night.  

So far this month BWI-Marshall has seen temperatures drop from 62 degrees on the 1st to 26 degrees on the 2nd. Daily averages have been well below the norms since the 2nd, and the month to date is averaging 3.5 degrees colder than the long-term averages.

Officially, we've had no precipitation at BWI. Heating degree-days are running 15 percent above the average. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Mirtha Stadler, in Gaithersburg, has finally provided an explanation for the snowfalls we seem to see each Dec. 5 in Central Maryland.

Ms. Stadler's father, Bernardo Sapcariu was 78 when he died in September 2002. He had been very close to his granddaughter Rachel, Mirtha's daughter. Rachel is now a 10th grader at Quince Orchard High. But she was just 6 when her Grandpa passed away. Her first birthday without her grandfather was on Dec. 5, 2002, and it began to snow.

"She [Rachel] was sitting at the kitchen table, and next to the table there was a window," Mirtha wrote. "She looked up at the sky and said, 'Thank you, Grandpa.'"

"I looked at her and asked her, 'Why did you say "Thank you, Grandpa?"'

"She said, 'Because Grandpa could not be here to spend my birthday with me, and he knows how much I love snow, [so] he gave me snow for my birthday.'"

"At that point, the phone rang and it was my sister-in-law, and she asked me why I was crying, and I told her, and of course we both started to cry," Mirtha continued.

"So the reason that it snowed every year on Dec. 5th is because Grandpa gave my daughter a birthday gift. She is now 15, and still wishes for snow on her birthday."

And on the two - now three - years since 2002 when it hasn't snowed on Dec. 5, Mirtha said, "Rachel said that Grandpa's snow machine was broken, and he was working on it." When snow finally came, "it was a belated birthday gift."

(SUN PHOTO: Snow in Annapolis, Dec. 5, 2002)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

While we marveled at a few flurries and flakes here in the Tidewater Sunday, our fellow Marylanders out in Garrett and western Allegany counties were under a Winter Storm Warning. The National Weather Service says they can expect as much as 12 to 18 inches of snow overnight into Monday.

And light snow is expected to keep coming into Tuesday. And if that doesn't sound wintry enough for you, here's the rest of the warning for the high country in Allegany County:

"* TEMPERATURES...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
  LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
  TEENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND
  LOWER 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
  DIGITS TO THE MIDDLE TEENS.

"* WINDS...WEST-NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 TO 50 MPH
  THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND
  DRIFTING SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW ONE HALF MILE
  AT TIMES."

Mountain regions of West Virginia and south-central Pennsylvania are also under Winter Storm Warnings tonight. Check out these lake-effect snow echoes on Great Lakes radar.

(PHOTO: Wisp Resort web cam Sunday night)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

I spoke Thursday with Steve Zubrick, the science and operations officer at the NWS forecast office in Sterling, and we talked again about Baltimore's curious history of snowfalls on Dec. 5. It seems he, too, was intrigued by the phenomenon. And he was not alone.

As faithful WeatherBlog readers will know, Baltimore has recorded at least a trace of snow on six of the last eight Dec. 5ths. When I asked Steve about the phenomenon in an email a while back, he expressed doubt that a real statistical analysis of the phenomenon would find anything more than coincidence at work.

But he queried the weather service computers and found that snowstorms of an inch or more have occurred on Dec. 5 more than any other date in December - nine of them since daily snowfall records began for the city in 1892. There is a similar spike for snow on Dec. 5 at Washington's Reagan National Airport, although it's not the snowiest December date there.

That stirred some speculation at the Sterling office. Forecaster Jared Klein noted that early December is about when the first arctic cold outbreaks begin the reach Maryland, and wondered whether the Dec. 5 snow spike is "more a factor of when the first cold outbreak makes it possible to snow."  

At a Winter Weather Workshop for media types Thursday in Sterling, Zubrick revealed that he had been intrigued enough to run the question by some heavyweights in the meteorological statistics community.

The first was Harry R. Glahn, director of the NWS's Meteorological Development Lab. Glahn took the 117 years of data and ran it through a series of statistical tests. Finally focusing on the December numbers for Baltimore, he said the math "leads me to conclude that, looking at the data and finding one spike in December of [greater than or equal to] 9 days is not unusual."

He called it a "singularity," and added that, "while at first blush there may be something unusual about December 5, it is nebulous. I might say, it is unusual not to find something unusual in a set of data." But, he added, "Much more work would have to be carefully done to confirm a Dec. 5 abnormality. It might make a good MS thesis topic for some student, or even a Ph.D."

Glahn forwarded the question to Ian Jolliffe, a professor emeritus at Aberdeen University in Scotland, whom Zubrick described as a "world reknowned statistician and atmospheric scientist." Jolliffe agreed, saying there is "clearly no evidence of anything but a chance occurrence."

"I'm pretty convinced by this," Zubrick said. Me, too.

Still, Glahn cautioned against dismissing such oddities too quickly.

"In your original email," Glahn told Zubrick, "you said it is absurd to think there may be something happening that could cause such an 'abnormality.' I wouldn't be too sure about that. There are extra-terrestrial events that could conceivably cause something like this; meteor showers come to mind. But most such things wouldn't be tied to specific earth calendar days," he said.

He reminded us all not to be too quick to dismiss apparent oddities: "Sometimes, someone noticing something unusual leads to new understandings."

(PHOTOS: Top, Laurel Park, Dec. 5, 2009, by Jerry Dzierwinski, Maryland Jockey Club. Bottom: Sun Photo, Baltimore, Dec, 5, 2002, by Algerina Perna)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Sorry kids, it just doesn't look like the Baltimore region is going to get any of this late-autumn snow that so many of our neighbors to the north are enjoying today.

While Buffalo and other communities in the lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario are digging out from big lake-effect snowfalls, we're looking at a weekend forecast that goes from just mostly cloudy to partly sunny to mostly sunny by Monday.

Snow lovers don't have to go terribly far for better news. The hardy Marylanders in our far-western counties are looking at a pretty much unbroken string of snowflake icons on their 7-day forecast. That goes for both Garrett and western Allegany counties.

And forecasters are watching a "clipper" system - a storm riding along the jet stream out of the northern Rockies - that's expected to cross the Great Plains and reach the Midwest by tonight. That storm is forecast to pass well to our south, across southwest Virginia late Saturday into Sunday.  Forecasters say it will be cold enough for that to produce snow Saturday night across the southern Potomac Highlands and the central Shenandoah Valley.

But none of it will be heavy. These clipper systems just don't pack the moisture needed for that. We're likely to see more of these this winter than of the big coastal storms that buried us last winter, forecasters say. And then we're looking at mostly sunny skies well into next week.

This, or course, pretty much kills our chances of seeing snow on Dec. 5 this year. More on that later.

(AP PHOTO: David Duprey)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

For several years now, we've been writing about Dec. 5, and how frequently we here in Baltimore seem to get at least a little bit of snow on that date. 

Here's the recent history:

2009: 1 inch

2008:  None (but there was 0.6 inch on the 6th)

2007:  4.7 inches

2006:  Trace

2005:  1.4 inches

2004:  None

2003:  3 inches (and another 3.8 inches on the 6th)

2002:  7.4 inches (and a trace on the 6th)

Well, okay. Maybe snow on six of the last eight Dec. 5ths is a coincidence. But it's been a pretty persistent one. I asked Steve Zubrick about it. He's the science and operations officer at the National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling, Va.

"I don't think it's any more favored than any other date during winter," he said. "I have not done a statistical analysis of this" but he doubts it would stand up as statistically significant. Maybe not.

Still, Zubrick did run the numbers for me, looking back on all the dates with at least an inch of snow in Baltimore since they started keeping daily snow records for the city in 1892.

That search revealed that Dec. 5 REALLY IS the date with the most snowfalls of an inch or more. (Chart below.) It's occurred on nine Dec. 5ths (five of those since 2002). The runners-up are Dec. 10th and 14th, with seven snows of an inch or more.

Curiously, it has NEVER snowed an inch or more on Dec. 7 since the record-keeping began. Zubrick doesn't think that would hold up as statistically significant, either, if he had a longer time scale to work with. 

So maybe there's nothing special about the date. It just seems likely to snow on Dec. 5 in Baltimore, and not on Dec. 7. Whatever... Here are some other curious-but-probably-meaningless facts from Zubrick's data search:

* The date with the most frequent snowfalls of an inch or more for Baltimore:  Jan. 7, with 13 such snowfalls since 1892.

* The runner-up, with 11 days: Jan. 28.

* Those are followed by a six-way tie, with 10 days each: Jan. 16, 19, 30, and Feb. 4, 6 and 17.

* January and February had the most days with an inch of snow or more: 206 days each since 1892.

The forecast for this coming Dec. 5 - Sunday - calls for partly sunny skies and a high near 43 degrees, after a morning low of 30. On the other hand, Eric the Red, our contributing meteorologist from Baltimore,  says several computer models suggest the first significant storm of the season in a Dec. 7-8 time frame.

Maybe we'll see the first inch or more of snow on a Dec. 7 in Baltimore since records began in 1892. Stay tuned.

(SUN PHOTO: Top: Nanine Hartzenbusch, Dec. 6, 2005; Bottom: Amy Davis, Dec. 5, 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (8)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It won't last long, and it probably won't mess up your drive to Grandmother's house Thanksgiving morning. But holiday travelers should be aware that forecasters are calling for a period of sleet, and possibly some patches of freezing rain, north and west of the Baltimore-Washington corridor early Thursday.

The sleet doesn't show up at all in the forecast for BWI-Marshall airport. There is rain in the forecast, beginning after 4 a.m. when the low temperature is expected to be around 35 degrees. Rain is likely to continue to be a factor into the morning. But the afternoon should just be cloudy, with highs in the mid-40s, if the forecast holds up.

But to the north and west, the precipitation may be icier. In Westminster, forecasters are calling for rain, "possibly mixed with sleet, beconming all rain after 9 a.m." The ground, and the streets, are still too warm for any of it to stick, or glaze. But it may catch your attention as you head out for Grandma's.

All of this comes about as the high pressure, cooler temperatures and sunshine we're enjoying Wednesday morning move off to the east and a warm front approaches from the south. That will bring more moisture into the picture, and we can expect high clouds to begin appearing from the west late today.

As that moisture hits the colder air to the north and west of the urban corridor, it's going to begin raining. And as that rain falls early Thursday morning, evaporational cooling may get temperatures low enough to our north and west to turn rain to ice as it falls, forecasters said.

The clouds will stick around after the precipitation ends, making it a gray and damp sort of Thanksgiving. But temperatures won't fall much as evening arrives and more warm air arrives from the south. Friday's high will reach the mid-50s early as the next cold front approaches with more rain chances. The front will slip by during the day Friday, opening the door to some much colder air from the Arctic as the day goes by.

Overnight lows Friday into Saturday may drop below freezing, rebounding only into the mid-40s on Saturday and Sunday. Sunshine will make it a nice weekend for shopping. Or loafing.

(SUN PHOTO: Karl Merton Ferron, March, 2007)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Nothing like a late-autumn blizzard at Thanksgiving to spice up the weather and travel forecast. Fortunately for Marylanders, all the excitement, for now, is far to our north and west.

AccuWeather.com is watching the arctic air spill into the mountain Northwest, and predicting blizzard conditions across the Dakotas and eastward to Michigan at midweek. That system will begin to affect the Great Lakes and the Northeast later in the week, AccuWeather.com said:

"Cold winds will follow the storm throughout the Great Lakes region on Thanksgiving and the interior Northeast into the weekend. The cold air blowing over the relatively warm lake waters may trigger the biggest episode of lake-effect snow since last winter."

So, if your Thanksgiving plans take you to Erie, Pa., or Buffalo, or Cleveland, or other points north and west, go prepared for wintry conditions and problematic driving late in the week.

Here in Central Maryland we shouldn't have to contend with any of that for the moment. The National Weather Service says we can expect these balmy 65-degree days to continue through Tuesday. Then the first of two cold fronts will pass through. The first, on Tuesday, could be heralded by a narrow band of showers.

Wednesday will be cooler after the frontal passage - in the 50s. But it will be sunny as high pressure builds in behind the front, and a fine day to travel if you must.

But that ridge of high pressure will move offshore pretty quickly, followed by another, stronger cold front out of the Ohio Valley. It may not get here until late on Thanksgiving Day, forecasters say. This one could bring some thunderstorms as it goes through. But we will only have to read about wintry weather to our north.

There's colder weather behind that front. Our weekend highs will stall out in the 40s with some gusty winds. But at least it will be sunny.

Beyond that, however, some forecasters are continuing to talk about the growing risk of some much colder, and perhaps snowy weather. While it won't get here during the long holiday weekend, as had once been feared, Eric the Red, at least, seems pretty confident that we'll be seeing some action early in December.

Eric, a professional forecaster from Baltimore, is watching as a "massive blocking high" over Greenland continues to form. This is the feature that tends to force the northern jet stream to loop southward into the Northeast, bringing us much colder weather. Add a storm to the mix and we could see snow. Last winter's blizzards involved such blocking highs - also called a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation. 

So, "the effects will not be immediate because there will be some combatting forces at play," Eric said. "Trust me on this: The blocking high will win this battle eventually ... it just might take a week."

Until that happens, he continues, "we'll be spared the full brunt of the arctic air that is poised to plunge south. But the models not only show the block holding on, they move it west into the jackpot-for-snow spot ... the Davis Strait [the narrow waterway betweeen Greenland and Baffin Island]... When the blocking highs move west and reach the Davis Strait, inevitably some sorta East Coast storm spins up ... sometimes too far offshore, but sometimes not (like last year). This particular high reaches the Davis Strait on or about Dec. 1. So the first week of December could get very, very interesting."

Snow on Dec. 5 again? Here's what Foot's Forecast has to say about the first days of December:

"December 4 - 8 in the along the east coast is the first period of potentially disturbing weather. Several long-range climate teleconnections that our team routine monitors continue to show strong signals this period may feature a particularly high-impact event along the eastern seaboard."

(SUN PHOTO: Glenn Fawcett, Dec. 5, 2007)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:

If forecasters are right, and we’re entering a moderate to strong La Nina winter, the statistics suggest we should expect above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation in Central Maryland from December through February. Seasonal snow totals at Baltimore in strong La Nina years since 1950 have averaged in the low teens. Other forces can change the script. But we’ve had only two double-digit La Nina surprises, says NWS meteorologist Jared Klein: a 22-inch blizzard on Jan. 6-8, 1996, and a 15-inch storm Jan. 25, 2000.  

(SUN PHOTO: Kenneth K. Lam, Jan. 8, 1996)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Here's how the National Weather Services put it. Need I say more? (Garrett County is also included in a similar advisory issued by the Pittsburgh forecast office.)

Here's a look at conditions on I-68 at Keyser's Ridge. Welcome to Winter, Maryland!

EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-PENDLETON-WESTERN GRANT-
WESTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...FRANKLIN...BAYARD...
MOUNT STORM...ELK GARDEN
1009 AM EDT FRI NOV 5 2010WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
SATURDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE: SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING: SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING
  FRIDAY. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FT
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
  MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES: LOW 30S.

* WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
  MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Hardy Allegany County residents just seem to deal with wintry weather without paying much attention to the stuff, much less caring about how the weather forecasters choose to define it.

But the National Weather Service is acknowledging the frequency of bad winter weather in Western Maryland's mountain stronghold by requiring slightly more dire forecasts before they'll issue winter weather watches and warnings. The change puts the county into the same class as Garrett County just to the west.

Until now, the forecast for Allegany County - and for the rest of Maryland east of there - had to call for 2 inches of snow in 12 hours before the folks in Sterling would issue a Winter Weather Advisory. As of 10 a.m. Thursday, the criterion for Allegany (also Grant, Mineral and Pendleton counties in W. Va., and Highland County in Va.) will be 3 inches in 12 hours.

Similarly, the threshold for a Winter Storm Watch will be a 50 percent chance of seeing 6 inches over 12 hours (instead of 5), or 8 inches over 24 hours (instead of 7). An 80 percent chance would trigger a Winter Storm Warning.

Chris Strong, the warning coordination meteorologist at Sterling, said the thresholds are being upped "due to the higher annual snowfall (and frequency of snowfall) out there, their ability to tolerate light snowfall better, and local government wishes. They haven't seen a climatological increase in snowfall there over the past several years, but this criteria should better fit what constitutes a nuisance and a life threatening event out there."

And it's come just in time. Frostburg is expecting accumulating snow this weekend.

(SUN PHOTO: Doug Kapustin, Frostburg, Oct. 25, 2005)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:

Baltimore’s snow season is officially open. Okay, it’s not official, just my say-so. But Saturday marked the date of the earliest snowfall on record for Baltimore – a trace that fell Oct. 9, 1903.

Plenty of Marylanders remember the earliest measurable snow on record. It was the 0.3-inch mess that fell on Oct. 10, 1979, postponing Game 1 of the World Series at Memorial Stadium, between the Orioles and the Pirates.

The deepest October snow was 2.5 inches, on Oct. 30, 1925. 

(SUN PHOTO: Lloyd Fox, 1996)  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

How can I break this to you? Someone dropped a copy of the 2011 Old Farmer's Almanac on my desk over the weekend. So, naturally, when I got in this morning, I immediately opened it to the 2011 weather forecast.

Well, first let me say there is good news on the page. The almanac's seers believe next summer will be relatively cool and dry. The cool part, we like. Of course, after the warmest summer on record for Baltimore, anything would seem cool by comparison. The dry part we may need to appeal, since we have been dealing with scarce rainfall and - in some parts of the state - drought throughout the summer of 2010.

Then there's the winter forecast. The Old Farmer believes the November-through-March period coming up will be "cold and snowy" across most of the South and into the mid-Atlantic states as far north as New York City.

The almanac's forecasters use a variety of indicators for their prognostications. They include sunspot cycles, and El Nino/La Nina patterns. La Nina is expected to be a factor this winter:

"We expect that a weak to moderate La Nina will develop for the winter of 2010-11. Most of the eastern portion of the nation will have below-normal winter temperatures, on average (the weaker the La Nina, the colder it will be) ... Snowfall will be above normal in most of the area from the mid-Atlantic states through the southeast part of the country and below normal in most other areas."

Here, I need to insert a caution. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows nothing of the kind. Their seasonal forecast for the December through February period shows equal chances for above- or below normal temperatures and precipitation in the mid-Atlantic states. In the Southeast, they expect below-normal temperatures, but also below-normal precipitation.

NOAA also says La Nina cooling in the equatorial Pacific began in late spring and has strengthened in recent weeks. And indications are it will continue to strengthen and persist through the winter. And the pattern seen most frequently during La Nina winters in the mid-Atlantic includes relatively warm temperatures - not cold. It also brings the jet stream (which generally also means the prevailing storm track) right over us, which would seem to suggest above-normal precipitation.

I leave it to you to sort out all this seemingly contradictory information. But if you hate snow, (and the Old Farmer is correct about weak La Ninas bringing colder winter weather) it seems like you should be rooting for a strong La Nina.

Or, maybe you should find a cheap condo in Florida. 

(SUN PHOTOS: Top: Dec. 18-19, 2009 blizzard. Bottom: Feb. 5-6, 2010 blizzard. Both by Karl Merton Ferron)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (8)
Categories: Winter weather
        

After last winter's record-breaking snowfall, who would predict anything even close to a repeat performance in the winter of 2010-11? Not AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi.

In his first forecast for the coming winter season, the forecast company's long-range meteorologist is calling for "a more traditional winter" this time. Baltimore and other East Coast cities that were hammered by three blizzards last winter should see something close to average accumulations in the winter season to come.

"Average" snow for a winter season in Baltimore is about 18 inches. Last winter we recorded 77 inches, and the last snow piles didn't vanish until the first week in May.

This winter, Bastardi predicts, we should prepare for "greater than normal swings between winter's coldest and warmest days." He says November and December could get winter off to a fast start, with a warming period in January. Average temperatures for the winter would be slightly above the long-term norms, if he proves accurate.

Last fall, Bastardi predicted a memorable, snowy winter for our region, with something like 25 inches of snow. He was right about the "memorable" part. But he undershot the snow totals by two-thirds.

This time, Bastardi predicts, it will be the Northwest, the Northern Plains and the western Great Lakes that see the worst of winter weather. "The rapid cooling of the globe with the La Nina will produce severe cold for Alaska and northwest Canada, and in fact the Canadian winter will be as harsh as last year's was gentle," he said.

The big snows will fall on Chicago, Omaha, Detroit, Minneapolis and Cleveland, if he's right. Seattle will have a rough go, too.

The Southern Plains, meanwhile, would have an easier winter, as would the southern tier of states. Florida would see warmer-than-normal temperatures all winter long. Southern California and the Southwest face severe drought, and "water rationing could occur throughout the Southwest," he said.

There it is. Stick it on your fridge and check back in March to see how he did.

(PHOTOS: Top: SUN PHOTO of December 2009 Baltimore blizzard, Karl Merton Ferron/ Bottom: AP Photo, Florida in July, Michael Spooneybarger)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The latest edition of the "Sterling Reporter," the seasonal report from forecasters at the National Weather Service's Baltimore-Washington forecast office in Sterling, Va., includes their ranking of the snowiest winters in Baltimore and Washington.

The rankings appear to take into account adjustments the NWS had to make in the snow measurements at BWI, which were found to have been done improperly by an FAA contractor. So put an asterisk on the numbers for the top storm.

It's interesting to note that the top three storms since record-keeping for Baltimore began in the 19th century, have all occurred in the last 15 years. And, notice how much less snow Washington has received than Baltimore. Only 40 miles up the road and we seem to get significantly snowier winters. 

BWI-MARSHALL AIRPORT

1. 2009-10:  77.0 inches

2. 1995-96:  62.5 inches

3. 2002-03:  58.2 inches

4. 1963-64:  51.8 inches

5. 1898-99:  51.1 inches

6. 1960-61:  46.5 inches

7. 1921-22:  44.4 inches

8. 1966-67:  43.4 inches

9. 1957-58:  43.0 inches

10. 1978-79:  42.5 inches 

WASHINGTON REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT

1. 2009-10:  56.1 inches

2. 1898-99:  54.4 inches

3. 1995-96:  46.0 inches

4. 1921-22:  44.5 inches

5. 1891-92:  41.7 inches

6. 1904-05:  41.0 inches

7. 1957-58:  40.4 inches

8. 2002-03:  40.4 inches

9. 1960-61:  40.3 inches

10. 1910-11:  39.8 inches

(SUN PHOTOS: Top/Kim Hairston; Bottom/Karl Merton Ferron, 2010)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Our Lancaster bureau chief, Charlie Charnigo, reports from his FRiday lunch spot that the towering snow pile he has been watching since the February storms has finally melted away. Says he:

"And then it was gone. The snow pile up here is no more. They even swept up the lot, leaving not a trace of the monument to the back-to-back blizzards of 2010. But 90 days was a good run. Cheers, Charlie."

There will be no viewing hours. Services will be private. We prefer to remember our snow pile as it once was. (See above.)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Two feet of fresh snow and high winds made Garrett County roads dangerous and all but impassable Friday. Emergency managers there have reimposed a local state of emergency they had finally lifted on Tuesday, two and a half weeks after the February storms began.

Plows cannot keep ahead of fresh fallen and drifting snow, officials said, and emergency crews are busy clearing a second multi-car pileup, with numerous injuries, on Interstate 68.

"I-68 is not closed, but we are telling people, if you don't have to be out in this, don't bother coming out. These are blizzard conditions. They will travel at their own risk," said Sgt. James Hare, at the McHenry Barracks of the Maryland State Police.

While I-68 is not officialy closed, he said, eastbound traffic at 2:30 p.m. remained stopped just east of the Garrett/Allegany County line due to an accident that occurred around 11 a.m. today. "Travel is almost impossible there."

UPDATE: 3:30 p.m.: The State Highway Administration said I-68 is open in both directions, all lanes. Conditions are "improving, but hazardous."

County officials said the snow has been extraordinary, even for Garrett. "I've been in public safety for 35 years, and I've never seen storms one after another, with the cumulative effect being like this," said Brad Frantz, Garrett's director of emergency management.

"Road conditions are bad," he said. "So we are strongly urging folks to not travel in Garrett County right now. The roads are basically impassable. I'm pushing hard for Interstate 68 to be shut back down, and anybody who tries to travel will have to get on alternate routes, and those will be worse."

The National Weather Service is predicting another 10 to 20 inches of snow at McHenry through Saturday.

The State Highway Administration issued a statement warning of poor driving conditions in Garrett and western Allegany counties.

"Travel conditions are extremely hazardous ... causing major travel issues along Interstate 68 and US 40 west of Cumberland," officials said. "SHA maintenance crews continue to plow roads in the area, although the heavy snow and high winds are causing major delays and hazardous conditions."

Organizers of the "Deep Creek Dunk," a fund-raiser for the Special Olympics scheduled for Saturday in McHenry, are urging people not to attempt to make the drive because of the poor road conditions in Garrett County. Participants already in town were invited to take part in the dunk, at 2 p.m., and "scaled-back" festivities afterwards.

I-68 was closed for several hours Thursday afternoon after a 15-car pileup near Finzel, at the Garrett/Allegany County line. Five people were transported to area hospitals.

"Now it has opened back up, and shortly after we had another multi-casualty" incident, Frantz said. "We are still working that one ... The last I heard is that we had some entrapment with that."

Frantz said he had just finished a conference call with the National Weather Service. "We had one report of 23 inches of new snow," he said. "That's on top of what we already had. We are probably close to 250 inches of snow for the year now... more than 20 feet.

Even for snow-savvy Garrett County, Frantz said, "This is way beyond normal."

"County roads are impassable. Plows are not able to plow. They basically can't keep up. They're blowing shut as soon as they open them. They are trying to keep major arteries open and having limited success. The more rural routes, they are getting to them as they can."

During an earlier storm, fire fighters were unable to reach a house fire, and the home was "a total loss," he said. No one was injured. "Pretty much any fire or EMS incident we're sending a plow truck ahead of it on the assumption that most areas are not accessible right now."

"The other issue that's brewing here is there is over 10 inches of water equivalent on the ground," Frantz said.  "When this thaws, it will be like getting a 10-inch rainstorm. If it goes all at once, the next thing you will be calling me about is the floods."

Garrett isn't alone, Frantz said. "To our west in West Virginia, they are having some of the same issues, and somewhat to the east. The western end of Allegany County is just about on the same level with us. From Cumberland east it slacks off. That's normally the case. Being on the Allegheny Plateau, everything gets hung up here."

The brutal weather is taking its toll. "Fire, EMS, 911, the county and state highway folks are doing a tremendous job, but it's starting to build up," Frantz said. There have been some equipment failures, and municipalites have been hurt further by sharp cuts in funding to local government from state highway user funds - the gasoline tax.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (17)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Just received this delightful letter, handwritten and sent via snail mail, from "Angela," in Towson. Angela has written to me before about the birds she sees from her windows. Enjoy.

"Dear Mr. Roylance,

"Years ago I wrote you, when I was 93, an article titled 'Catbirds and Raisins.' I saw something today that I thought the readers or 'bird fanciers' would appreciate.

"A mockingbird flew down from the roof, sat on a branch of an azalea bush (just overhead were many icicles hanging from the gutters). The mockingbird reached over and drank several sips of water from the dripping icicle. Snow covered the lawn and bushes, but he preferred to drink from the icicle.

"I was stunned when I saw it. I had never seen anything like it before; and because I was inside my house, sitting at a table having my cup of tea, and just looked out my window, close by, at the precise time the bird arrived to take a drink from an icicle.

"[That this occurred] on Valentines' Day made it especially important to me, since I am confined to my house because of a stroke and do not get out to see other things that are important to me, i.e., the malls and stores.

"To me, he was the most important Valentine gift I ever received. Yours truly, Angela..."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:51 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Four days after the snow stopped, the 500 block of South Dallas Street in Fells Point got a welcome Sunday visit from a front loader and a big dump truck. Free at Last!

BEFORE:                                                                            AFTER:

But the folks in the 2400 Block of Everton Drive in Mount Washington woke up to find an eight foot pile of snow at the entrance to their street. Area resident Bob Byrnes tells the tale:

"Whoever was cleaning the main and sidestreets decided to use the entrance of the street to dump the snow. The 8-foot pile is impassable and makes access to the street by an emergency vehicle impossible. A city 311 operator was called about 8 a.m., but two hours later, nothing has happened. No other street in the Mt. Washington neighborhood appears to have been plowed in. The city contractors appear to have done an exemplary job everywhere but at the corner of Everton."

Anyone know if this blockade has been cleared?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:56 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Winter weather
        

The howling winds, swirling snow and plummeting visibility that drove plow drivers off the highways today are being driven by an intensifying offshore low-pressure system that meteorologists are likening to a Cat. 1 hurricane.

Winds topped 58 mph over part of the Chesapeake Bay, and 40 mph gusts were common across the region as the storm's center deepened and drifted slowly along the mid-Atlantic coast, forecasters said. 

"They have hurricane-force wind warnings up for that sector of the ocean, so for all intents and purposes, it's a ... Category 1 hurricane," said meteorologist Bryan Jackson, at the National Weather Services's forecast office in Sterling, Va.

Barometric pressure readings from an offshore buoy in the area sank to 28.93 inches, Jackson said. That deep low, along with the relative warmth of the offshore ocean waters, provided the energy that intensified the storm and drove the day's winds.

"We had some tropical storm-force winds for the southern part of the bay, off Solomons Island," Jackson said. Winds in Manassas, Va., gusted to 57 mph during a morning squall. An elementary school in Frederick County recorded a 52-mph gust, and a Reisterstown station reported a gust to 44 mph during the morning.

At BWI, winds gusted as high as 40 mph. Such winds and low visibilities created blizzard conditions, Jackson said, but until meteorologists can determine how long those conditions were sustained, they won't be able to put a "blizzard" label on the storm.

Asked to compare this storm with the 24.8-inch blizzard on Friday and Saturday, Jackson said the weekend storm carried more moisture. "That's why places will hit two feet [of snow] with this one, where they were getting two-and-a-half to close to three feet" over the weekend.

But "this one was certainly windier," he said, and for that reason "this has been more hazardous. They're reporting that plows were being pulled off the roads with snow squalls going through. It's just too dangerous having people on the roads."

"These are the most hazardous conditions of the winter, and it's been a very hazardous winter," he said.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (16)
Categories: Winter weather
        

With Blizzard Warnings in effect until 7 p.m. Wednesday from the Virginia suburbs of Washington, through Baltimore to Philadelphia and New York City, the National Weather Service is warning that weather conditions have begun to deteriorate. With heavy snow and winds gusting as high as 60 mph, attempts to travel could become life-threatening.

Total snow accumulations still could reach 10 to 20 inches, with windblown drifts 2 to 4 feet deep.

The entire state of Maryland is now under a Blizzard Warning! Has this EVER happened before?

Says Steve Zubrick, NWS science officer in Sterling: "I'm not sure about when the last time all of MD. was in a blizzard warning ... but right now you are in a blizzard! (or as close as you'll ever be in one.)

"Not how there are lulls interspersed with outrageous, near whiteout conditions. That's a characteristic of the random nature of these howling winds. Enjoy!"

 In a Special Weather Statement issued at 8:24 a.m., forecasters at Sterling said:

"...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FOR
THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON REGION...THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST
VIRGINIA...

"DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LIFE
THREATENING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON REGION THIS MORNING.

"AT 7:27 AM THIS MORNING...A WIND GUST WAS RECORDED TO 60 MPH AT
MANASSAS VIRGINIA. NUMEROUS WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH HAVE OBSERVED
AROUND THE REGION ALONG WITH WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS."

The Blizzard Warning issued for Baltimore is in effect until 7 p.m.. It still calls for 10 to 20 inches of new snow before the storm ends late today. The heaviest period of snowfall will be from this morning through the early afternoon.

Forecasters said an additional 2 to 5 inches are possible this morning.

BWI has already received 5.2 inches as of 7 a.m. That means this is now the snowiest winter on record (since 1883) for Baltimore. The old record was 62.5 inches, set in 1995-96. We are now at 65.6 inches and counting.

More accumulation reports are coming in. Here is a sampling of 7 to 8 a.m. measurements:

Sykesville, Howard County:  11 inches

Jarrettsville, Harford:  9 inches

Ellicott City, Howard:  9 inches

Mount Airy, Carroll:  8.5 inches

Long Green, Baltimore:  7.8 inches

Camp Springs, Prince George's:  7.1 inches

Bel Air, Harford:  6.5 inches

Columbia, Howard:  6.1 inches

Crofton, Anne Arundel:  5.5 inches

(SUN PHOTO/Frank Roylance/Whiteout in Cockeysville)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (9)
Categories: Winter weather
        

It's official (but preliminary). The Super Bowl Weekend Storm in Maryland was a blizzard. Or, at least it met blizzard criteria at BWI-Marshall Airport and at the Patuxent Naval Air Station in St. Mary's County. It seems likely that many places in between also met the test.

"Near-blizzard conditions" were recorded at several other locations in the region, including Annapolis, meaning they had blizzard conditions, but not for the required three-hour minimum.

Here's the statement, issued Sunday afternoon by the National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling, Va.:

"PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ST. MARY`S AND
ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES IN MARYLAND ON SATURDAY 6 FEBRUARY 2010...

"THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS A WINTER
STORM WHICH PRODUCES THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS FOR 3 HOURS OR LONGER:
SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS 35 MPH OR GREATER...AND FALLING
AND/OR BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY FREQUENTLY TO LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER MILE ON A WIDESPREAD OR LOCAL BASIS.

"PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SHOW THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE
RECORDED AT TWO OBSERVATION LOCATIONS IN THE REGION ON SATURDAY
6 FEBRUARY 2010.  THE FIRST OCCURRENCE WAS AT BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
INTERNATIONAL THURGOOD MARSHALL AIRPORT IN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY
MD...FROM APPROXIMATELY 12 MIDNIGHT TO 5:00 AM EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.  DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WIND GUSTS WERE RECORDED TO
37 MPH WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE IN HEAVY SNOW.

"THE SECOND LOCATION WAS AT THE PATUXENT RIVER NAVAL AIR STATION IN
ST. MARY`S COUNTY MD...FROM APPROXIMATELY 12 NOON TO 4:00 PM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WIND GUSTS WERE
RECORDED TO 41 MPH WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO ONE-EIGHTH MILE IN
HEAVY SNOW.

"NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WHICH MET THE COUPLED VISIBILITY AND WIND
CRITERIA THAT OCCURRED OCCASIONALLY DURING THE STORM...BUT FELL
BELOW THE 3 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE HOUR CONSTRAINT OF THE FORMAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD...WERE OBSERVED IN
ANNAPOLIS MD...RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT...DULLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND ANDREWS AIR FORCE BASE IN PRINCE
GEORGES COUNTY MD.

"AS WITH ANY MAJOR CLIMATE RECORD ACHIEVEMENT...THESE PRELIMINARY
RECORDS WILL BE QUALITY CONTROLLED BY NOAA`S NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (6)
Categories: Winter weather
        

How has the snowstorm affected you and your community? We want to hear from you -- stories about what you've done and seen this weekend -- from the serious to the silly. Please share your anecdotes by commenting below, including your name and city. If you're on Twitter, add #mdsnow to your tweets to have them appear in our feed.

Posted by baltimoresun.com at 11:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Turns out the weather forecasters knew what they were talking about. The big Super Bowl Weekend Storm that's been talked about, hyped and doubted across Maryland for days has finally delivered. Some locations have already topped two feet.

Here are some snow tallies from NWS spotters.

Here are some of the early measurements being reported at 7 a.m. by the CoCoRaHS Network.

Elkridge, Howard County:  32 inches

Crofton, Anne Arundel:  26.8 inches

Columbia, Howard:  26.4 inches

Clarksburg, Montgomery:  24.5 inches

Mount Airy, Carroll:  20.1 inches

(WeatherDeck, Cockeysville, Baltimore County:)  15 inches

La Plata, Charles:  14 inches

Deale, Anne Arundel:  11 inches

Salisbury, Wicomico:  5.4 inches

BWI-Marshall Airport, the official station for Baltimore, where forecasters had predicted 20 to 30 inches by tonight, was reporting 19 inches at 8 a.m. That would already put this storm on Baltimore's Top Ten list - at the No. 9 spot - and the snow is still falling.

The NWS at Sterling is now calling for another 4 to 8 inches today at BWI, and total storm accumulations of 18 to 24 inches for Baltimore.

If we get the 8, and top out at 27 inches, that would make this the No. 2 storm, behind the 28.2-inch Presidents' Day Weekend Storm in February 2003. A total of 24 inches would make this No. 3.

There's plenty of time to dig out this weekend, so take it slow. This is very dense, very heavy snow. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (7)
Categories: Winter weather
        

So what should we do today? The National Weather Service says this Top Ten snowstorm should begin to produce flakes across Central Maryland beginning late in the morning to our south, and by 1 p.m. or so in Baltimore and its suburbs.

School systems across the region appear to have decided to cram in the minimum number of hours today to qualify as a real school day (although what kid will be thinking of anything but snow?). They'll dismiss two to three hours early to avoid the worst of the afternoon snow. They hope.

I plan to get to work as usual this morning, but I am hoping to be able to scram early and get home before the roads become treacherous. I can finish the day at home via computer. Lots of my colleagues will be spending the night - maybe two - in downtown hotels so they can get the papers out for Sunday and Monday delivery.

But what if all this clever planning just makes things worse today? What if the school buses, an early PM commute, the salt trucks, plows and the first few inches of snow all converge in a colossal, slippery, snowy gridlock?

We've seen it before - an afternoon snowfall that panics commuters and ends in jams that extend a 30-minute commute to hours.

Shouldn't we all just stay home today, enjoy an historic snowfall and let our public servants do their jobs? What do you think?

Here's the forecast. The NWS is still calling for 18 to 24 inches of snow by Saturday evening as another Gulf low reforms off the Atlantic coast and spins north to the mid-Atlantic states. Two to four inches are predicted by nightfall.

If they're right, even if we just top 16 inches, this storm will rank among the Top Ten snowstorms since Baltimore snowfall records began in 1883. A 24-inch storm would rank No. 3. 

Here's AccuWeather's take on the nor'easter. They finally bumped their estimates to 12 to 24 inches after lagging other forecasters late Thursday.

And here's Mr. Foot's Forecast. They're looking for 20 to 28 inches, warning motorists to be off the roads by noon.

(SUN PHOTO/Frank Roylance/2006)

Continue reading "Stay home? Or leave early?" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (23)
Categories: Winter weather
        

We had a hard time measuring the snow on the WeatherDeck this morning because I forgot to clear away the old snow. But looking at the CoCoRaHS report this morning, it looks like the NWS forecasters out at Sterling got this one about right - 3 to 6 inches.

Here's a sampling:

Bryan's Road, Charles County: 6.0 inches

Long Green, Baltimore Co.:  5.9 inches

Mt. Airy, Carroll:  5.7 inches

Clarksburg, Montgomery:  5.5 inches

Severn, Arundel:  5.1 inches

Columbia, Howard:  5.0 inches

Hamilton, Baltimore City:  4.5 inches

Kingsville, Harford:  4.3 inches

Taneytown, Carroll:  4.0 inches

Towson, Baltimore:  3.0 inches

Another pretty snowfall, filling the trees but easy to shovel and yielding to salt on the streets. And the kids will get to school today, mostly, if a bit late.

But it was just the appetizer. We still have the main course - the weekend storm - to deal with. Here's the Hazardous Weather Outlook from the folks out at Sterling:

"FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM HAS TO POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM...SO PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS."

Sterling is offering no accumulation predictions yet. Too early. But the forecast is putting the chance of snow at 90 percent for Friday night at BWI-Marshall, and 80 percent on Saturday. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s Friday night, and the lower 30s on Saturday.

Up at AccuWeather.com, they've got Central Maryland in the 6- to 12-inch band for this storm (map), but we're darn close to some 12- to 18-inch territory to our west.

Mr. Foot and his team are much more optimistic (or is it pessimistic?) about this storm. "This storm will not be for the faint of heart," says he. He puts the accumulations at 12 to 24 inches, depending on where and when the snow line sets up.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (16)
Categories: Winter weather