If last night's frost didn't kill them, you'd best cover or bring those tender plants indoors tonight.

The National Weather Service has just posted frost advisories (blue area on the map) for all of Central Maryland between 2 a.m. and 9 a.m. Tuesday morning.

With clear skies ahead, temperatures are expected to drop deep into the 30s tonight, cold enough for frost that will kill vulnerable and exposed plants. 

The record low for an Oct. 20 at BWI is 28 degrees, reached most recently in 1992. 

We're still about nine days ahead of the average first-frost date for Baltimore. The forecast low tonight for the city is 40 degrees, but we don't need to reach an air temperature of 32 degrees to form frost on some exposed surfaces.   

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

With strong sunshine, a scarcity of rain recently and very dry air today, the National Weather Service has posted a Special Weather Statement noting increased risks of brush fires today.

The winds are not too active, so they have not yet issued a Red Flag Warning, as they have to our north and east. But it would be wise to be careful with fires today, and to crush those butts in the ashtray.

The humidity here on the WeatherDeck this afternoon has dropped from 63 percent  at 7 a.m. to 22 percent just after noon. That's desert-dry. And there is lots of tinder around after weeks without significant rainfall.

Here's the statement on this afternoon's fire hazard:

A DRY COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND MUCH
DRIER AIR IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA. WINDS HAVE
TURNED TO THE NORTH AND ARE INCREASING...WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
MPH POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP TO AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL
FURTHER LOWER THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF FINE FUELS SUCH AS
GRASSES...PINE NEEDLES AND TWIGS.

THE COMBINATION OF LOWER FUEL MOISTURES...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS...WILL POSE AN INCREASED FIRE
THREAT TODAY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION HANDLING ANY POTENTIAL
IGNITION SOURCE...INCLUDING MACHINERY... CIGARETTES...AND MATCHES.
BE SURE TO PROPERLY DISCARD ALL SMOKING MATERIALS. ANY DRY GRASSES
AND TREE LITTER THAT IGNITE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
QUICKLY.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

Scant rainfall, very low humidity and brisk winds will combine today to boost the danger that a a spark, a tossed cigarette or some other activity will touch off brush fires in Central Maryland.

The National Weather Service has declared an "Enhanced Fire Danger" for the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon. In Maryland that covers every jurisdiction except Worcester and Garrett counties. Here's the scoop:

"A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...SUSTAINED NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE...AND
ENHANCED DOWNSLOPING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE COULD DROP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL PIEDMONT OF VIRGINIA.

"THESE CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
AREA. USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES."

While September was very wet here, Baltimore has recorded only 0.12 inch of rain since Oct. 1.

The forecast calls for a "dry cold front" to pass through the region around noon today, bringing gusty northwest winds for the afternoon and evening. Winds will be in the 20-25 mph range, with gusts to 35 mph. With any luck, it will blow your leaves into your neighbor's yard.

More cold air will pour in behind the front, dropping temperatures into the 30s for the next three nights. But skies will remain pretty sunny, and starry at night, until the weekend. Then, we're looking for increased rain chances and gray skies.

The bad weather is coming from a low forming out over the Plains, which will gather up Gulf moisture as it heads east and forms a secondary storm center off the Southeast Coast. It's the sort of storm we look for to produce some of our best winter storms. But we're not there yet, fortunately.

Now, in a seasonal note, trees in The Sun's little grove of ginkgoes - or at least the female members - planted many years ago along Calvert and Centre streets in Baltimore, are once again dropping their stinking fruit. They smell like vomit, but nonetheless attract a handful of folks each year who - garbed in masks and gloves - quietly collect and open the nasty, pulpy things and harvest the seeds.

These are ginkgo nuts. They're widely used in Asian cooking, I'm told. Former Sun reporter Rob Hiaasen wrote a story in 1995 about this annual visitation to The Sun's grove. It follows below. If you have no stomach for ginkgo nut gathering, I can't blame you. But drive by our building sometime in the next few weeks as the ginkgoes at Calvert and Centre turn their golden shade of yellow. It's a beautiful show and worth the detour.

Continue reading "Wildfire hazard this afternoon" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

Flood warnings remain in effect in Harford and Cecil counties today as record rain and snowmelt in Pennsylvania and New York send high water down the Susquehanna River. The river has already passed flood stage at Marietta, Pa., about 35 miles upstream from Conowingo. It appears to have crested at Harrisburg.

UPDATED: The water below the Exelon Power Corp.'s Conowingo Hydroelectric Station is forecast to reach 25.5 feet by this evening, then begin to fall. At 10:30 a.m. it was at 24.5 feet. That is a foot above flood stage (23.5 feet). Minor flooding is occurring, according to the National Weather Service; "moderate" flooding is expected.

The forecast, if realized, would bring the river to Notification Level 5, with 21 to 25 of the dam's 53 gates open. At Level 5, backyards and basements on Main Street, and Tome's landing in Port Deposit begin to flood.

An earlier NWS forecast had predicted the river level would reach Level 6. An earlier version of this post indicated that level had already been reached. It has not. Your weather blogger regrets the error. Here's more on the Notification levels..

The webcam photo was taken in June 2006, during runoff from heavy rains. If anyone snaps some pictures there today, send them along and we'll post them.

Water was rushing through the dam this morning at a rate of 323,000 cubic feet per second. The previous record for a March 6 was 320,000 cf/s in 1979. The average for this date is 70,500 cubic feet per second. The all-time record high flow was 1.13 million cubic feet per second, on June 24, 1972, in the aftermath of Tropical Storm Agnes.

Below is a graph of the discharge rate at 9:30 this morning. You can get real-time data on the discharge by clicking here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

Watch those smokes, folks. The National Weather Service has posted a "Red Flag Warning" from Arundel and Montgomery counties wouth into Virginia, as high winds and very low humidities turn grass, brush and leaf litter to tinder. It's the red zone in this map.

The forecast calls for winds gusting as high as 55 mph this afternoon. The really cold arctic air moves in late today, sending overnight lows into the teens tonight. This will be very dry air. Here's how the forecasters out at Sterling put it in their discussion yesterday:

"FOR SNOW LOVERS THIS WILL BE A WASTE OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING VERY DRY (AND COLD) AIR. I CAN`T
RECALL THE LAST TIME I PUT SUBZERO DEWPOINTS IN THE ZONES. LOTS OF STATIC
ELECTRICITY WHEN YOU WALK AROUND AND TOUCH ANYTHING MON. MORNING."

Sub-zero dewpoints mean the air is so dry that temperatures would have to sink below zero before the air would become saturated, and the moisture condense and fall as snow. The dewpoints in Baltimore tonight will be minus-2 to minus-4 degrees.

I'll have to be careful with static charges. I've zapped my laptop once before with a spark from my finger to the screen. It went dark and I had to reboot.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

The National Weather Service has posted a coastal flood advisory for tonight as southerly winds drive water up the bay and send it lapping onto low-lying spots on the Western Shore of the bay and the tidal Potomac River. Check the advisory for high tide times at your location. Here's how the tide tracker saw it around 5 p.m. Tuesday. You can follow it yourself if you click here.

They're only talking about "minor" flooding, but it pays to keep a watch out, especially in flood-prone spots such as the Alexandria, Washington and the Annapolis City Dock. 

The flood threat will disappear during the morning tomorrow, as an approaching cold front crosses the region and turns the winds around to the west. But these will be strong winds. A wind advisory has been posted for the Baltimore metro area, from 5 a.m. Wednesday to 4 p.m. It warns of sustained winds reaching 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 50 mph. Take that into account if you have to put trash out tomorrow.

Next up? Freezing rain late Thursday into Friday, with the best chance for icing west of I-95. Nice.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

UPDATE, 5:10 p.m.: The severe thunderstorm warning for Baltimore and Harford counties has been lifted. Watches remain in effect. Here's the latest watch/warning map. 

EARLIER: Thunderstorms pushing south and west out of New Jersey and Pennsylvania could reach Maryland this afternoon or evening. The National Weather Service has posted a severe thunderstorm watch for all of Central Maryland, the District and Northern Virginia, as well as the northern Eastern Shore and west to Allegany County. Large hail remains the primary worry.

Here's the radar loop. And the satellite view. Here's (as of 2:50 p.m.) where the watch was posted. Here is the forecast.  Here's a regional map of watches and warnings.

And here's a portion of the watch statement:

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

UPDATE, 3:50 p.m.: Severe storm warnings for Harford and Baltimore counties have been cancelled. Severe storm watches remain in effect across the region. Here's a map that will provide current watches and warnings.

EARLIER: Baltimore and Harford counties are under severe storm warnings this afternoon as thunderstorms roll in ahead of a cold front from the north and west. The rest of the region is under a severe storm watch. Here is the latest forecast. Here is the current storm warning. And here is the local radar. For a wider view, click here.

Where's the lightning? Check here.

Here's how Sterling puts it:

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
AND ACROSS THE BALTIMORE METRO AREA DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON...BRINGING A BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC
METRO AREA...INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND INTO LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND
DURING THE DINNER TIME HOURS.

And here are some severe weather safety rules to keep in mind. Be careful out there.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:31 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

Dry air and stiff winds have spurred the National Weather Service forecast office in Mt. Holly, N.J. to issue "red flag warnings" for northeastern Maryland and Delaware. That means conditions are ripe for the spread of brush fires. The warnings extend well beyond the Eastern Shore, north into New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania.  So if you're in that area - or anywhere else for that matter - be careful with outdoor fires, and snuff your cigarettes in the ashtray. Here's our official forecast, from Sterling.

Ever wonder why much of Maryland's Eastern Shore gets its weather forecasts from a forecast office in New Jersey? Me too. It turns out that Maryland - one of the nation's smallest states - was carved up and parceled out to no fewer than four regional weather forecast offices, all located in other states. Here in Central Maryland, we're covered from the Sterling, Va. office. Garrett County, in far Western Maryland, gets its forecasts from the Pittsburgh office. Northeastern Maryland is handled from Mt. Holly, N.J.  And the Southern Shore, including Ocean City, is covered by forecasters in Wakefield, Va., west of Norfolk.

Go figure.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

Better put a rope on Toto today. Also bring in the garbage cans, secure your trash and put some muscle at the wheel of the Winnebago. Big wind's coming this afternoon as a cold front reaches the area from the northwest.

The National Weather Service has issued a wind advisory, warning of winds gusting in excess of 45 mph after the front reaches the I-95 corridor. Here's the advisory.

While our MarylandWeather.com forecast made mention of a possibility of thunderstorms arriving with the frontal passage, the National Weather Service discussion this morning downplays the possibility. We'll all find out in a few hours.

Behind the front we get into colder, drier air - colder than yesterday's highs in the 50s, and colder than the long-term averages for BWI at this time of year. But we won't be seeing the sort of arctic cold we saw last week, with lows in the teens and highs struggling to reach 30 degrees. Here's the official forecast.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

There are high wind watches up across our region. We're being told to expect sustained winds over 40 mph across most of the state tomorrow afternoon, with gusts above 58 mph, as this stormy cold front crosses the region. They're calling for high water along the bay shore, too - 1 to 2 feet above normal tides. They're already rising this afternoon, as this chart shows. (Click to enlarge.)

Also expect brief, heavy rains in thunderstorms and rapidly falling temperatures.

It was nearly 72 degrees here this afternoon at The Sun's monitoring station at Calvert and Centre streets. BWI reported 71 degrees this afternoon, too. The record for a Nov. 30 in Baltimore is 74 degrees, set downtown in 1933. The overnight readings are forecast to fall to 37 degrees by tomorrow night, and to 27 degrees by Monday night.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

The National Weather Service has posted a freeze warning for tonight in Cumberland and other portions of Allegany County. Temperatures out west could dip as low as 30 degrees tonight as cold air continues to stream in from the Great Lakes and Canada, and clear skies allow plenty of the day's solar energy to radiate back out into space.

Of course, that also makes it a great night for stargazing. The big show this month remains Jupiter, brilliant in the southeast in the evening and just a couple of weeks past opposition - its closest and brightest apparition of the year. Binoculars should reveal as many as four of its moons, lined up on either side of the big planet.

If you get lucky while you're outside tonight, maybe you'll spot a fireball like this one. It was photographed from El Paso, Texas, on May 4.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

There are frost advisories up tonight in the Pennsylvania counties just north of the Mason-Dixon Line, bordering Carroll, Baltimore and Harford counties. I suspect weather conditions don't much respect political boundaries, even those as venerable as Mason's and Dixon's. So watch for frost in the normally colder valleys of north-central Maryland, too.

The latest recorded freezing temperature at BWI was a 32-degree reading on May 11, 1966

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

Watch those smokes. Dry air and high winds have raised the risk of wildfires in Maryland the Virginia for tomorrow. "Red Flag" warnings have been posted for much of Virginia and the lower Eastern Shore. And the danger is only slightly less in Central Maryland. Here's how the weather service put it:

"...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...


"THE COMBINATION OF DRY GROUND...DRY AIR...AND STRONG WINDS WILL
LEAD TO POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL REACH SPEEDS OF 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REACH 20 TO 30 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH
THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS WILL MOISTEN THE GROUND A LITTLE...
PERSISTENT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD DRY FUELS...PRIMING THE
GROUND BY WEDNESDAY.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS."

The Red Flag warnings in Virginia cover all the areas in red on this map.  A Red Flag warning means:

"CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (1)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

Oh my, that air felt good this morning - 72 degrees on the car thermometer at 9:30 a.m. But this early breath of spring is also stirring up warnings of wildfire danger and coastal flooding today.

First, there's the forecast:  We're talking a high of 78 degrees this afternoon. Hello ? We haven't seen the 70's at Baltimore-Washington International Airport since Nov. 16, when it was 76 degrees. And we haven't had a 78-degree day since Oct. 6.

The warm air barreling into the Northeast from the Gulf states is rocking small cars and empty trucks. The National Weather Service says we should expect winds of 13 to 21 mph today, with gusts as high as 37 mph. You can watch the top wind speeds at BWI on the strip chart here.

Wind plus low humidity are contributing to increased wildfire hazards. The weather service has issued the following notice:

"...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...

MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF AROUND 30 PERCENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE
NOT QUITE RED FLAG CRITERIA....HOWEVER WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FINE
FUELS...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED.

"THE GENERAL PUBLIC IS ADVISED
TO RESPECT ALL STATE AND LOCAL BURNING LAWS."

Red Flag warnings are posted for the upper Eastern Shore, Delaware and southern New Jersey.

High winds from the south or southeast are also pushing water up the bay, increasing the risk of coastal flooding. Here's the advisory:

"...MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

"STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDE LEVELS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER LEVELS OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTIONS MAY CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IN AREAS
THAT ARE PRONE TO PROBLEMS FROM HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.
ALEXANDRIA VIRGINIA AND ANNAPOLIS MARYLAND ARE TYPICALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO COASTAL FLOODING.

"UPCOMING TIMES FOR HIGH TIDES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

"ANNAPOLIS MARYLAND...2:49 PM FRIDAY
ALEXANDRIA VIRGINIA...4:54 AM AND 5:18 PM FRIDAY
KEY BRIDGE WASHINGTON DC...5:11 AM AND 5:35 PM FRIDAY
FT MCHENRY BALTIMORE...4:27 PM FRIDAY
BOWLEY BAR...5:18 PM FRIDAY"

You can watch the tides rise here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

Rain and lingering cold in parts of Maryland could spell trouble for late-night (or early-morning) motorists tonight as a storm system moves in from the Ohio Valley. The National Weather Service has issued a freezing rain advisory for the northern tier of counties, from Harford west to Allegany. Normally colder valleys may be especially vulnerable.

Heading north? There are winter storm watches and warnings up for eastern Pa., northern N.J. and the NYC area. That means 4 inches of snow or more. Click here.

Things should warm up here in the morning - at least enough to erase the ice threat. And the rain will cease. But it won't be anywhere near the balmy 65 degrees forecast earlier in the week. The cold air to our north has lingered more than forecasters expected, and the warm weather to our south will stay there, holding temps here to about normal for this time of year - mid-to-upper 40s in the daytime, 20s at night.

But once we're clear of the rain tomorrow, the sun will come out, and stargazing should be good for the weekend. And forecasters seem confident that the coastal low that's expected early next week will not push far enough north to affect our region. If it does, cold air here could mean frozen precipitation.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

Stiff winds, low humidity and a promise of more to come have prompted the National Weather Service to post a "Fire Weather" Watch for most of Maryland west of the Chesapeake. There's plenty of fuel out there, too. Here's the latest Haines Index map, which shows relative wildfire hazards across the country. We're listed as "moderate."  And, there's no new precipitation in the forecast until Wednesday. So crush those smokes.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

The National Weather Service has posted a winter storm watch for far western Maryland -including Garrett and Allegany counties - beginning Saturday afternoon and extending to late Sunday. Accumulations in excess of 6 inches are possible in some spots. And counties in PA and WV to the north and west could see up to 8 inches. Here's the skinny:

"LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL TRACK NORTH INTO QUEBEC BY
SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM REACHES PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY
EVENING...COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN VERY QUICKLY WITH RAIN CHANGING
TO SNOW LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALL DAY ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP THROUGH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON WESTERLY WINDS. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF SIX INCHES OR MORE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.

"A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

Better bring in the trash cans. As a storm center moves off the mid-Atlantic coast and intensifies this afternoon, colder air will move in behind the low, blowing in from the northwest with gusts as high as 40 mph this afternoon and tonight. There are gale warnings for the Bay. Here's the landlubbers' advisory from the weather service:

" LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OFF THE DELMARVA TODAY.
THIS STORM WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME STRONG WINDS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S BY LATE AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS.

"SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL EVEN OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UNDER
ONE INCH.

"BE SURE TO SECURE ANY LOOSE ITEMS ON YOUR PROPERTY DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS. MOTORISTS SHOULD ALSO USE EXTRA CAUTION."

But the cold blast tonight won't do much to bring in more seasonable temperatures. The forecast still calls for sunshine and highs this week in the upper 40s and low 50s. That's still 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (2)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

The National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for all of Maryland from Allegany County in the west, to the Chesapeake Bay in the east. Forecasters are calling for 3 to 5 inches of rain from Friday through Saturday afternoon, as the remnants of Tropical Storm Tammy collide with a cold front approaching from the west. The heaviest amounts should fall west of the Blue Ridge.

The watch actually extends from Northern Virginia, across Maryland and Pennsylvania, clear into central New York State, visible as dark green on this map.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

5:54 p.m.: The Weather Service is issuing severe thunderstorm warnings ahead of a storm now crossing Maryland ahead of a cold front. The warnings have been issued for Baltimore, Frederick and Montgomery counties. Watches are posted across most of the rest of the state.

Storms are crossing Carroll County, headed for the greater Baltimore region. Here's the radar image. And here's a wider view.

Just to give you an idea of what's happening, it's still 98 degrees in downtown Baltimore at this writing, but the storms and the passing cold front have already dropped temperatures in Westminster, Frederick and Hagerstown to about 81 degrees. It fell 18 degrees in 40 minutes in Westminster. Be careful out there.

Posted by Admin at 5:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

The National Weather Service has posted a severe thunderstorm watch for the entire state east of Garrett County until 10 p.m. tonight (Wednesday) as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will relieve our high temperatures once it pulls through. But in the meantime it's 96 at BWI and worse - 98 - at the Maryland Science Center. Radar shows some thunderstorms moving through Washington County, headed toward the Chesapeake Bay.

You can see the dramatic shift in the weather west of the front. It was 94 degrees just before 4 p.m. today in Harrisburg, Pa., and 77 degrees at State College, just 62 miles away to the west.

Posted by Admin at 3:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

As suffocatingly hot as it was today, it looks like the high temperatures have fallen short of some of the direst predictions. Yesterday's forecasts warned of highs of 95 or 97 degrees. There were a few mentions this morning of 99 or even 100 degrees.

But the actual high at BWI will likely stick at 94 today, despite strong sunshine all day. (It's the 11th day in the 90s this month, and the warmest at BWI since Aug. 22, 2002, when it was 94.) The Science Center, in downtown Baltimore, reached 97.

With heat index predictions falling short of earlier expectations, the National Weather Service cancelled many of its "excessive heat" warnings for Wednesday, except for downtown Baltimore and Washington. And heat advisories will likely be cancelled later today for communities west of the mountains.

This is the beginning of the end of the heat wave. Wednesday should bring a "cold" front from the northwest, with clouds and cooler temperatures - the mid-80s - by Thursday.

Posted by Admin at 6:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

With temperatures headed for the 90s again, and humidities to match, we're in for another stifling July day. The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory, effective across the region through early evening.

"THE COMBINATION OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK. HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.

"A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT
INJURIES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY OUT OF THE
SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

"DO NOT KEEP CHILDREN OR PETS IN CARS WITH WINDOWS ROLLED UP...EVEN
PARTIALLY. TEMPERATURES INSIDE A CAR WITH WINDOWS UP CAN REACH
OVER 150 DEGREES QUICKLY...RESULTING IN HEAT STROKE AND DEATH."

Posted by Admin at 1:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

AT 649 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN BALTIMORE COUNTY JUST
WEST OF BALTIMORE CITY. THIS LINE OF STORM IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
TO 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH. THROUGH 745 PM...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN
HOWARD...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...ANNE ARUNDEL...NORTHERN PRINCE
GEORGES...BALTIMORE CITY AND SOUTH CENTRAL BALTIMORE COUNTIES WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES OR A WARNING IS ISSUED.
- from: SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
652 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2005

Posted by Admin at 8:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
831 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM FLASH FLOOD WOODLAWN 39.31N 76.75W
06/28/2005 BALTIMORE MD FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
WATER FLOODED UP TO THE HOOD OF A VEHICLE.

___________
Isolated thunderstorms in the Baltimore area has created excessive runoff causing the National Weather Service in Sterling, Va. to issue a flash flood warning through 5:30 p.m. Excessive runoff will cause flash flooding of small creeks, and streams, highways, and underpasses throughout the Baltimore area. At 3:37 p.m. one inch of rain had fallen and another inch could fall by nightfall.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM. HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 98 TO 103 ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST.

Posted by Admin at 4:57 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
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The National Weather Service has allowed its heat advisory to expire at 6 p.m. But the temperature at BWI remained at 90 degrees, and the misery index remained high. Here's how Sterling put it:

"THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. ALTHOUGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES WERE CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES EARLY THIS EVENING...THESE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO COOL. HOWEVER...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 90 THROUGH
THE EVENING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS IF
SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS."

We may get some rain overnight, but the heat will be back tomorrow. Real relief starts Thursday.

And while we simmered today, NASA's Earth-observing AQUA satellite was snapping our picture. Here's how the Eastern U.S. looked from space today. (Click on the upper left-hand image to enlarge it.) Notice the haze we were under, and the thunderstorms brewing to our west.

Posted by Admin at 7:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The National Weather Service has posted a severe thunderstorm watch for most of Maryland this afternoon. Some storms are already bubbling up out of the heat and humidity in northern Virginia, and they're popping up on radar. There's even a possibility that tornadoes could break out. Here's how to prepare.

We don't usually think of Maryland as tornado country. But while the most powerful twisters are exceedingly rare here, the record books are full of serious, even deadly storms that have touched down over the years. Here's a list, by county.

Posted by Admin at 3:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Better cover the veggies. The National Weather Service has extended tonight's frost advisories from Cecil County, to most of the state north and west of Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Advisories had already been posted for much of Pennsylvania, Delaware and New Jersey, including most of the Pennsylvania counties along the Mason-Dixon Line.

Thursday morning's forecast low for Baltimore is 39 degrees - warmer than the last few days. Westminster's low could reach 36. The day's high in Baltimore should be near 62 - 8 degrees below normal.

Lots of schools have already turned off their furnaces for the season - a bit prematurely, it turns out. I know at least one teacher who's wearing sweaters to work this week. There must be plenty to chilly children, too.

Posted by Admin at 1:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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Sen. Rick Santorum , (R-Pa.) has spun up a storm with his proposed bill to limit the kind of weather products the National Weather Service can provide free to the public.

The Senator's concern is that the taxpayer-funded weather service is providing "value-added" products and services that compete with commercial weather providers, such as AccuWeather, which is based in Santorum's home state. The bill would seek to refocus the NWS on its core responsibilities: gathering comprehensive weather data, and issuing watches and warnings that are vital to the protection of life and property.

But some people who have come to rely on National Weather Service data, its routine forecasting, and its Web sites. They're worried that the bill will go too far, taking some useful NWS products off line and forcing users to purchase the same services from the commercial providers. They note that much of the raw data used by the commercial providers may well have originated with the NWS. They object to the prospect of paying a commercial firm for information they have already paid for with their tax dollars.

It's not a new issue, but Santorum's bill brings it into the political limelight again.

Here's how the Palm Beach Post reported the squall.

How do you feel? Should the government be clearing the decks for private weather forecasters to expand their business and their profits? Where should the government's role in forecasting the weather begin and end? Or is there room enough out there for the government forecasters and the weather entrepreneurs to continue to prosper and innovate as they have been ?

Posted by Admin at 11:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
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I noticed today that much of Eastern Pennsylvania - including all the counties that border on Maryland - has posted "red flag" wildfire warnings. The warnings note the dry conditions in the woods, low humidity, breezes and clear weather ahead.

Here's the text:

"...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
FOR TODAY...

"THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR BERKS, LEHIGH, NORTHAMPTON, BUCKS, CHESTER, MONTGOMERY,
DELAWARE AND PHILADELPHIA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

"THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE RUNNING HIGH TODAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. THE LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL BE COMBINED WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH AND VERY LOW FUEL MOISTURE CREATING
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

"AS WINDS DECREASE AROUND SUNSET, SO TOO WILL THE THREAT FOR
DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS.

"ON THURSDAY, WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH COULD DEVELOP AND ALSO OCCUR OVER
MOST OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND OR
RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED."

There are no such warnings posted south of the Mason-Dixon line. But that's because Maryland has a slightly higher wind threshhold for posting them.

But the National Weather Service does report "moderate" fire danger today in portions of the state. That's a "5" on the Haines Index.

Monte Mitchell, state fire supervisor for the Maryland Forest Service, said today that "We're in similar shape" to Pennsylvania. "The fire danger is still high. We're certainly keeping an eye on things ... This is probably the driest stretch yet for this spring fire season."

Humidities are very low - just 26 percent at BWI at last check. (It's 41 percent in Denver.) And the forecast remains clear and dry at least through Tuesday. So be careful with your smokes and open burning this weekend.

Posted by Admin at 2:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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This just in from the National Weather Service:

"Persistent northeast wind flow the last couple of days has resulted
in tides about one and a half feet above normal in the Chesapeake Bay
and the tidal Potomac. Northeast winds averaging 10 to 15 mph are
expected to persist through Saturday. This will result in tide levels
to run about 2 feet above normal tonight through Saturday over the
Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac. This will result in some minor
tidal flooding in the more prone areas."

High tides...

Baltimore... 215 am Fri... 231 PM Fri... 320 am Sat.
Washington DC... 321 am Fri... 407 PM Fri... 433 am Sat.
Annapolis... 1211 am Fri... 1227 PM Fri... 116 am Sat

Posted by Admin at 2:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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It's Oct. 5. Do you know where your windshield scraper is?

The National Weather Service has issued frost advisories for tonight from the northern and western suburbs of Baltimore and Washington westward to Allegany County. The boys in Sterling say that means it will get cold enough to form frost instead of dew on exposed surfaces - like pumpkins, flowers and windshields. After Oct. 15 they don't bother with such advisories, figuring the growing season, and the risk to growing things, is over. The forecast low for BWI tonight is 41 degrees. But Hunt Valley will reach 37. (It doesn't have to get to 32 degrees to form frost. Something about saturated vapor pressure. Don't ask.)

There's a freeze warning out in Garrett County, where the low could dip to 30. Not that those hardy, just-barely Marylanders would notice.

Posted by Admin at 10:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Yikes! It's only the first week of October and the first frost and freeze warnings of the season were posted for Maryland tonight. BWI should only fall to 50 tonight (and 43 tomorrow). But Garrett County is looking at a freeze warning and a low of 32 degrees both nights. Frost warnings are up for Allegany, Washington and Cecil counties, too. I've already pushed the thermostat switch from "Cool" to "Heat." I expect I'll hear it kick on tonight.

You don't want to hear this, but the earliest freeze at BWI was 31 degrees on Oct. 4, 1974 (exactly 30 years ago). The earliest measureable snow was 0.3 inch on Oct. 10, 1979.

By the way, did anyone spot that gorgeous three-quarter moon rising Sunday night about 10 p.m.? Just about drove off the eastbound Inner Loop admiring it.

Posted by Admin at 7:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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