It doesn't have to take six months to watch a hurricane season unfold. NASA has strung together orbital imagery of the 2008 season into a brief animation and set it all to a nice island beat.
You can find the download links here. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait and witness the 2009 season in real time.
A cooling of surface waters in the tropical Atlantic and the likelihood of a weak El Nino developing in the Pacific this summer have taken more wind out of the hurricane forecasts for the 2009 season, which began Monday.
Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, the hurricane experts at Colorado State University, today officially lowered their forecast for the coming season. They now expect hurricane activity slightly below the long-term averages. Tropical cyclone activity across the Atlantic Basin will be 90 percent of the average season, they said, compared with 160 percent in 2008.
Seasonal forecasts from Colorado State, AccuWeather.com and NOAA have been undercutting each other, and themselves, since December. Initial forecasts of an active season have been dialed back to slightly more-active than the average, to about average, and now to slightly less-active.
The revised Colorado State forecast, however, does not diminish by much the chances that at least one big hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline. "The probability ... is 48 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," Klotzbach said. They rate the chance for a Cat. 3 storm making landfall along the East Coast (including Florida) at 28 percent this season, compared to a long-term average of 31 percent. (Those are wind and waves from Tropical Storm Hanna, pounding Ocean City in the 2008 photo above.)
Here are the CSU team's latest predictions, compared with their April forecast and long-term averages:
Latest: 11 named storms, including 5 hurricanes, of which 2 will reach "major" Cat. 3 status
April: 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major
Average: 9.6 named storms; 5.9 hurricanes; 2.3 major
For more on the team's forecasts for the coming season, click here.
It is only a threat to sailors and fish, but it is a reminder that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is on our doorstep.
The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Depression 1 has formed in the Atlantic off the Carolina coast with top sustained winds of 35 mph. By Friday it could become the first named tropical storm of the new season, which opens officially on Monday. If so, it will be Tropical Storm Ana.
TD 1 is scooting off toward the northeast at a good clip, posing no threat to any land area. But you might not want to be on a boat in the region. I'm wondering how it is affecting the surf at Hatteras, or OC for that matter. Readers? Anyone at the beach?
Here's the advisory. Here's the forecast track map. And here's the view from orbit.
The chances seem small, but the National Hurricane Center is nevertheless watching a region of the Atlantic off the Carolinas that could spawn a tropical cyclone in the coming hours. You can see the swirl of clouds assembling in the satellite image above.
At the very least the low seems sure to pump more rain ashore. Here's the statement from the NHC issued Wednesday morning:
"AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS IS LOCATED
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE
SYSTEM HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
REACHING THE COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10-15 MPH...THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...AND AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT. SEE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION."
It didn't take long for a new tropical cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal, spin up to minimal hurricane force, then go ashore and kill more than 120 people in Bengladesh and India in recent days.
Cyclone Aila formed Sunday and is already dissipating (photo below) over the subcontinent. The winds never rose above 74 mph - minimal speed for a named storm. Even so, low-lying lands in the storm's path were quickly flooded by rising water and heavy rains. It's a familiar pattern in the region, where geography and poverty combine to produce terrible losses and dislocations whenever these storms steam ashore. Read more here.
We sure don't have to worry about it for this holiday weekend, but the 2009 hurricane season is approaching, and the government's forecasters have finally published their predictions for the coming season.
Like the corporate and university prognosticators before them, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's experts expect average to slightly-above average tropical activity from June through November.
Specifically, NOAA is predicting nine to 14 named storms, with four to seven becoming hurricanes, and one to three reaching Category 3 or more on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
The long-term averages are: 11 names storms, with six hurricanes, two of them reaching Cat. 3.
They base their estimates on several factors. First is the ongoing high-activity era that began in 1995, and which is expected to continue for another decade or two. That's based on large-scale cycles in the Atlantic basin, including enhanced rainfall over west Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear over the ocean regions where hurricanes form.
On the other hand, there is a chance that weak El Nino conditions could develop this summer over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, a factor that tends to suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic. Cooler-than-normal surface waters in the eastern tropical Atlantic could also tamp down hurricane development there if those conditions persist, NOAA forecasters said.
But while they are not expecting a bad hurricane season, the government meteorologists say Americans should prepare anyway. "Even a near- or below-normal season can produce landfalling hurricanes, and it only takes one landfalling storm to make a bad season," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Isabel (photo above) was a weakening tropical storm by the time it reached Maryland in 2003, and folks along the bayshore know what that cost them.
More than 35 million Americans now live within the regions most vulnerable to hurricane conditions. "Public awareness and public preparedness are the best defenses against a hurricane," said Commerce Secty. Gary Locke.
First up this year: Tropical Storm Ana. No sign of her yet.
The World Meteorological Organization has agreed to retire three names from the Atlantic Hurricane name sequences. This is done periodically out of respect for the people affected by a particularly damaging and deadly storm.
This time the WMO has consigned the 2008 storms Gustav, Ike and Paloma to the history books. Here is their reasoning:
Normally, the National Hurricane Center maintains six lists of names, in alphabetical order, that are repeated every six years. When names are retired, they are replaced with new ones. Gustav, Ike and Paloma will be replaced in 2014 with Gonzalo, Isaias and Paulette.
Six years ago, Isabel, which caused so much damage in Maryland and elsewhere was retired and replaced by this year's "I" storm - Ida.
The official start of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is still two and a half months away, but the first spring forecast - this one from AccuWeather.com - is out today.
Joe Bastardi, chief long-range forecaster for the private weather service, says he expects fewer storms to develop this year compared with 2008. And fewer of the storms that do pop up, he says, will make landfall in the U.S.
That's not to say it will be a quiet year. Bastardi is still looking for an "active" season compared with long-term averages. But if he's right, it should be a slower hurricane season than we saw last year.
"This year's forecast shows only half as many impacts on the United States as there were last year," he said in a release. "But keep in mind, it only takes one major hurricane hitting a highly populated area to have a devastating impact." (That's flooding in Maryland from Isabel in 2003 at left.)
Bastardi is forecasting a total of 13 named storms in 2009, down from the 16 recorded in 2008 and close to the long-term average. Of those 13 storms, he expects 8 will reach hurricane force (the same as last year) but only 2 will become "major" (Cat. 3 or higher) storms.
Only four storms would reach the U.S. coast, if Bastardi's estimates prove accurate. That's half as many as made it last season. He says three of those would make landfall as hurricanes, and one would strike at Cat. 3 or higher - one more than last year.
The AccuWeather.com hurricane forecast calls for "probably less" activity this year in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico compared with 2008, but "probably more" activity in the western Atlantic, closer to the U.S. East Coast.
Bastardi has been predicting for years that the East Coast is overdue for a major hurricane. He believes the conditions of the atmosphere and the ocean today are analogous to those in the early 1950s, a decade of major East Coast storms.
"I think along the Eastern Seaboard that we're getting into that period that was right up their alley [in the '50s]," he says in the AccuWeather interview linked below. "In the 1950s, the roadmap of hurricanes was up the East Coast ... We're in the '50s now." 
Among the factors Bastardi considered in reaching his forecast estimates:
* A shift, in the mid-to-late portion of the season - from a weak La Nina to a weak El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino events - above-average warming of the surface waters of the eastern and central tropical Pacific - are associated with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
* Stronger easterly trade winds off northern Africa. These winds typically carry dry air and dust out over the hurricane nursery region of the Atlantic, suppressing development.
* Cooler water in the "deep tropical Atlantic." This, he says, could lead to reduced activity and intensity of Atlantic storms
* Continuation of a multi-decadal pattern - established in 1995 - that leads to higher-than average hurricane activity overall.
For a video presentation of Bastardi's forecast, click here.
Stay tuned for the annual forecasts from the Colorado State University team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, due out in April, and the official government prediction, in May. The season opens June 1 and lasts through the end of November.
The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season won't end officially until Sunday, but meteorologists are already taking stock of what turned out to be one of the most active seasons in the 64 years since "comprehensive" record-keeping began. That's Ike in the satellite image above, just before it struck Texas.
In all, the season produced 16 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, of which five reached "major" Category 3 status. The count was close to pre-season forecasts by NOAA and Colorado State University's hurricane experts. It was also significantly higher than the long-term average of 11, 6 and 2.
Among the superlatives being posted this week:
* Tied as the fourth most-active storm season in terms of named storms and major hurricanes.
* First time on record that six consecutive named storms struck the mainland U.S. (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike). A record three Cat. 3 storms (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) struck Cuba.
* First Atlantic season to produce a major hurricane in five consecutive months, July through November (Bertha, Gustav, Ike, Omar, Paloma).
* Bertha, in July, was a tropical cyclone for 17 days in July, the longest-lived July storm on record in the Atlantic.
*Fay, in August, became the only storm on record to make landfall in Florida four times.
* Paloma, in November, reached Cat. 4 stature with top sustained winds of 145 mph. That made it the second-strongest November hurricane on record. (The first was Lenny, in 1999, with top winds of 155 mph.)
NOAA's lead hurricane forecaster, Gerry Bell, attributed the turbulent season to several factors, including a combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions that has been generating above-average seasons since 1995. Also, he points to the lingering effects of the La Nina phenomenon that ended in June, and warmer Atlantic Ocean water temperatures- about 1 degree Fahrenheit above normal during the peak of the season.
Hurricane Paloma is now packing top sustained winds of 140 mph, with higher gusts. Heavy rains and high storm surges are bearing down on south-central Cuba, which has been hard-hit by bad storms this season.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the storm track forecast. And here is the impressive view from space. This is an extraordinary storm, especially for this late in the season.
Hurricane Paloma, now a Cat. 2 storm packing 105-mph winds, is battering the Cayman Islands with a direct hit, and moving toward Cuba. Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Paloma to hurricane status. It is a Cat. 1 storm with top sustained winds of 75 mph. But it is still strengthening, and some models take it to a Cat. 3 before it reaches Cuba.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
Paloma is the 8th hurricane of the 2008 season, which will end - at least officially - on Nov. 30. It does not appear to pose any threat to U.S. territory. But the Cayman Islands and Cuba, and to a lesser extent the Bahamas, will feel the wrath of The Dove.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching a new tropical depression that formed today in the western Caribbean. It is strengthening, and was expected to become Tropical Storm Paloma by morning. It is forecast to become a hurricane - the season's 8th - later this week, and may pose a threat to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and storm-battered Cuba.
Here is the latest advisory on Tropical Depression 17. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.
Tropical storm watches have been posted for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Tops sustained winds in the storm are blowing at 35 mph. Here's more from the hurricane center.
The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, with 3 1/2 weeks to go, is already the second-most destructive on record (after 2005), with $52 billion in damage. Estimates vary. By some, more than 880 people have been killed. The worst was Hurricane Ike, which killed 126 people and caused $31 billion in damage - the third costliest in U.S. history. More than 200 people remain missing in its wake.
Hurricane Omar, an odd duck that formed in the Caribbean two days ago and appears headed northeastward across the Atlantic toward the Azores - seemingly the reverse of most Atlantic storms - seems to have peaked as a 120-mph Cat. 3 hurricane just as it crossed the northern Leeward Islands overnight.
Here are some early damage reports, including outages at Venezuelan oil ports and gasoline and heating oil refineries on St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, using Air Force reconaissance data and radar imagery from Puerto Rico, said Omar's core and its strongest winds passed through the Anegada Passage, between the Virgin Islands and St. Martin/Maarten in the early morning hours.
The region was under a Hurricane Warning, with forecasters predicting 5 to 10 inches of rain, with localized amounts up to 20 inches. Storm surge flooding along the storm's path and to the right of the path was expected to reach as high as 4 to 6 feet above normal tides, with large and battering waves. The storm surge was expected to be somewhat less for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands - to the left of the storm's path, but forecasters still warned of coastal erosion and damage to waterfront structures in these U.S. possessions.
Here is the latest advisory on Omar. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.
Omar is continuing to weaken, and will likely become a Cat. 2 storm again in the next few hours.
Continue reading "Cat. 3 Omar roars away from Leeward Islands" »
People in the Northern Leeward Islands are bracing for a strike tonight and tomorrow by Hurricane Omar. The hurricane is now a Category 1 storm with top sustained winds of 85 mph. But forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect the storm will grow to Cat. 2 status before landfall, with top winds of at least 96 mph on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
UPDATE: At 8 p.m. EDT Wednesday Omar was upgraded to a Cat. 2 storm, with top sustained winds of nearly 105 mph. Earlier post resumes:
"It also isn't out of the question that Omar could achieve major hurricane status (Cat. 3, 111 mph) just before the cyclone reaches the northern Leeward Islands," forecasters said today. But drier air from the northwest could still intrude and weaken the storm before landfall.
Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the storm.
Omar sprang up yesterday in the Eastern Caribbean just north of the Dutch Antilles, and pummeled those islands - Aruba. Bonaire and Curacao - with heavy winds and rain.
Now forecasters have posted hurricane warnings for the U.S. Virgin Islands and the small islands east of Puerto Rico - Vieques and Culebra. Also under warnings now are St. Martin/Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, the British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis.
Puerto Rico itself is under a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warnings. TS warnings are also posted for Antigua, Barbuda and Montserrat.
Omar this morning was centered 235 miles southwest of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. It was moving to the northeast at about 9 mph. Hurricane force winds were limited to a fairly small radius - just 15 miles from the center. But communities in its path can expect tropical-storm-force winds 115 miles from the center. Five to 10 inches of rain are also possible in Puerto Rico and the other islands, which may trigger flash floods and mudslides.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the storm track and here is the view from orbit.
Tropical Storm Omar is strengthening rapidly and turning toward the northern Leeward Islands. Hurricane watches and Tropical Storm warnings have been posted for the island of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Also:
"AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA...AND FRANCE...HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...
"ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
"AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF MONTSERRAT."
Landfall is expected Wednesday night in the Northern Leeward Islands.
Here's the latest advisory. Here's the forecast storm track. And here's the view from space.
As some hurricane forecasters predicted, October is proving to be an active month for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. As one tropical storm (Nana) fades away in the Atlantic, another (Omar) has formed today in the eastern Caribbean. And yet another tropical depression - the 16th of the season - is taking shape in the western Caribbean.
First, remnants of Tropical Storm Nana have dissipated in the central Atlantic, leaving just a tropical depression with top sustained winds of 30 mph. Another area of low pressure just south and east of Nana's remains is kicking up some wind and rain, but is not expected to strengthen.
Here is the final public advisory on Nana. Here is the storm track. There's not much to see from orbit.
In the eastern Caribbean, meanwhile, Tropical Storm Omar is lingering with top winds of 50 mph. It shows little motion for now, but is being felt in the Dutch Antilles - with wind and heavy rain for Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao. Forecasters are now considering storm watches from Puerto Rico to the Virgin Islands, and St. Martin, St. Eustatius and Saba.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
And off to the west, a disturbance off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras has reached tropical depression status, with top winds of 30 mph. Now referred to as Tropical Depression 16, it is a threat to Central America, and is likely to become a tropical storm (Paloma) by tomorrow morning.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
The 14th named storm of the 2008 hurricane season popped up far out in the Atlantic over the weekend, and this morning another tropical depression (above) was forming in the Caribbean.
Tropical Storm Nana - not exactly a name to be feared, it would seem - was an especially unimpressive patch of clouds about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Caribbean islands. Struggling against strong shearing winds aloft, the storm was managing top sustained winds barely strong enough to qualify as a tropical storm. And she has since lost strength and been demoted to a tropical depression. She is expected to be no more than a "remnant low" before the day ends.
Here is the latest advisory for Nana. Here is the pathetic little forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
The other actor in the tropics this morning is Tropical Depression 15, now centered about 340 miles southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean. TD15 is sporting top sustained winds of 35 mph, and is expected to pick up speed and begin drifting toward the northeast later today. It is also likely to strengthen to tropical storm status. If so, it will become Tropical Storm Omar.
The National Hurricane Center is considering tropical storm watches for the islands of Puerto Rico and the Virgin US Islands later today. From there, the storm is forecast to become a hurricane and head out into the Atlantic, with no further threat to land.
Here is the latest advisory for TD15. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
Speaking of the Virgin Islands, there was a sizable earthquake - 6.1 on the Richter scale - just north of the islands on Saturday, with lots of aftershocks since. Anybody down there reading this? We'd love some reports.
Here is a news report from the USVI, and another from the British Virgin Islands.
Looks like the 13th named storm of the 2008 season will form today in the Gulf of Campeche. But the little cyclone has little chance to develop into more than a really bad rain storm - as much as 6 inches of rain - for southeastern Mexico.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say the storm will likely move west onto Mexican shores late today or tomorrow, becoming one of the shortest-lived tropical storms of the season. Now only a tropical depression, it will become Tropical Storm Marco if its top sustained winds increase to 39 mph before it goes ashore and weakens.
UPDATE: At 4 p.m. the National Hurricane Center upgraded this storm. It is now tropical Storm Marco. Earlier post resumes below.
The storm at last check was located about 100 miles east of the coastal city of Veracruz. It was moving toward the west-northwest at at 10 mph, with top sustained winds of 35 mph. Forecasters said some strtengthening is expected, and it is likely to become a tropical storm.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
Some people scoffed at the dire warnings. The National Weather Service predicted a 20-foot storm surge and warned people in the Galveston area that those in one- or two-story homes who remained behind faced "certain death." Thousands of residents decided to "ride out" the storm at home anyway.
When the storm surge turned out to be only 12 or 13 feet, and the storm passed, apparently without leaving a high death toll behind, some people concluded that the warnings were hype, and that those who stayed behind did just fine.
But the devastation to some island communities that began showing up in aerial photographs (see Crystal Beach, below) a few days later made it clear that the storm was indeed catastrophic for smaller homes. Then one began to wonder: Where were the people who lived in those homes? Did they all get out in time?
Now comes this story from CNN. It says there are something like 300 people still missing three weeks after Ike. Many other "missing" folks have turned up. In time, maybe they will all be found in shelters, or with friends or relatives far from the damaged coastline. One has to hope so. They have many frantic friends and relatives looking for them. But there is growing concern that many, too many, may in fact be lost, buried in the muddy debris, or washed out to sea, or worse.
The Atlantic is quiet for now, but people in hurricane country can expect three more named storms to form this month on top of the 12 we've already experienced this season, at least according to forecasters at Colorado State University.
The respected team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray issued their late-season forecast yesterday, saying "Well above-average hurricane activity is expected for the month of October." They predict that two of the three storms that form in October will become hurricanes, and one will become a "major" (Cat. 3 or higher) hurricane. That means top sustained winds of 111 mph or more.
"We continue to observe low sea-level pressures and warm sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic," Klotzbach said in a release issued from CSU. "A combination of these two factors typically leads to an active October. In addition, we continue to observe neutral ENSO [El Nino Southern Oscillation] conditions in the tropical Pacific, so we do not expect that ENSO conditions will be detrimental to this year's October activity."
William Gray added: "We predict that October will be quite active based on climate signals through September. There has been a strong clustering of hurricane activity around mid-July and late August/early September. We think we are now entering a new period of heightened activity that is likely to go for another two to three weeks."
Well, maybe so. But for now, the tropical Atlantic remains quiet. If we do see three more named storms, they will bear the names Marco, Nana and Omar. Somehow, Nana just doesn't seem like she will be much of a threat.
It has been a busy season so far, as Klotzbach, Gray and NOAA all predicted before the season began in June. It has also been deadly, with 860 deaths directly attributed to the storms.
July saw three named storms, including Bertha, which was the longest-lived July storm on record (July 3-20). August was slightly more active than normal, with Gustav as the biggest news-maker.
September was also more active than normal, with Ike battering Texas, Hanna bashing the northern Leeward Islands and the middle Atlantic states, and Kyle striking Maine and the Canadian Maritimes.
Klotzbach and Gray need a few more storms to meet their June forecasts. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is already running slightly above the 1950-2000 averages, with two months to go in the season.
Named storms so far: 12 Gray's June prediction: 15 Average: 9.6
Hurricanes so far: 6 Gray's June prediction: 8 Average: 5.9
Major hurricanes so far: 3 Gray's June prediction: 4 Average: 2.3
The season is also just short of the team's predictions for "named storm days" - the number of days when named storms (tropical storm strength or higher) have been prowling the seas. The count has far exceeded the average, however.
Named storm days so far: 74.5 Gray's predictions: 80 Average: 49.1
Now that Kyle has gone ashore in Nova Scotia and the Maritime Provinces of Canada, the National Hurricane Center has turned its attention to Laura, a new sub-tropical storm that has formed overnight in the North Atlantic (Upper right on this image). It's spinning almost due east of Ocean City but far out on the Atlantic, south-southeast of Newfoundland. Top sustained winds are blowing at 60 mph.
For now, Laura remains a sub-tropical storm, but forecasters see signs that she could develop into a true tropical storm:
"A PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BAND
NOW CURLS ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS BROAD AND
ILL-DEFINED WITH SEVERAL INTERNAL SMALLER SWIRLS. WITH THE
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...A CASE COULD BE MADE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS."
Laura will not become a direct threat to North America, but shipping will be grappling with a bad storm. The storm track makes it appear that Ireland and the British Isles will be dealing with Laura in a few days.
Here is the latest advisory on Laura. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.
Tropical Storm Kyle has graduated to hurricane status, and continues his northward trek in the Atlantic. The center of the storm late Saturday night was about 400 miles south of Nantucket, off the Carolina coast. It was moving to the north at 24 mph with top sustained winds of 75 mph - a minimal Cat. 1 hurricane. Kyle was expected to weaken Sunday over colder waters and before landfall.
A hurricane watch was posted for the Maine coast from Stonington east to Eastport, and for southeast Nova Scotia. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Maine coast from Port Clyde to Cape Elizabeth, including the Portland area.
Rain from the storm was already reaching well to the north of the storm's center Saturday night. We can probably expect to see some serious flood video out of the region in the next few days. Here is the latest advisory. Here is the latest storm track. And here is the view from orbit.
The season's 11th named storm has formed in the Atlantic east of the Bahamas. It has been named Kyle, but it seems to pose little threat to land, at least for now.
Kyle was located more than 600 miles south southwest of Bermuda, moving north with top sustained winds of 45 mph. That course would take it well west of Bermuda, toward Maine and the Canadian Maritime Provinces. It does seem likely to keep the surf pounding along the East Coast into next week.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching the northeast Caribbean where stormy weather appears to be organizing into what could, later today, become the next tropical depression of the season. If it grows to tropical storm strength, it will be named Kyle.
Here is the satellite loop. Here is what the NHC is saying:
"THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY."
The National Hurricane Center said today it could not immediately confirm that this year's storm season marks the first time on record that that six consecutive named tropical storms or hurricanes have made landfall in the United States. The guy who searches the records for such things is unavailable until Thursday.
But Weather Underground blogger Jeff Masters, citing NOAA data, reported during Hanna's romp up the coast that its landfall tied the previous record of five consecutive U.S. landfalls. That mark had been set and matched five times before:
2004: (Frances, Gaston, Hermine, Ivan, and Jeanne)
2002: (Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Isidore) (Familiar names? Atlantic storm names are recycled every six years, unless severe damage or loss of life prompt their retirement.)
1985: (Gloria, Henri, Isabel, Juan, and Kate)
1979: (Bob, Claudette, David, Elena, and Frederic)
1971: (Doria, Edith, Fern, Ginger, Heidi)
So it sure looks like we've established a new mark this year. Three of the last six named storms struck Texas. The others hit Florida, Louisiana and North Carolina. Get a better look at the above Weather Underground track map, here.
The assaults began on July 23 when Hurricane Dolly made landfall at South Padre Island in Texas as a 100-mph Cat. 2 storm. It spared human lives in Texas, but caused $1.2 billion in damage. At the time, it was the third costliest tropical system in Texas history. Flash flooding from Dolly's remnants killed two people in New Mexico.
On Aug. 5, Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall with heavy rains and 65 mph winds, near Port Arthur, Texas. Tropical Storm Fay drifted out of the Caribbean and made landfall on the Florida Keys, and then again in South Florida on Aug. 18. It crossed the peninsula, dumping huge amounts of rain that caused serious flooding before moving out into the Atlantic. Fay then turned west, crossed the peninsula again into the Gulf, and made landfall again on the Florida Panhandle. That made it the first storm in Florida history to make landfall there four times.
Hurricane Gustav made landfall in Louisiana on Aug. 31, with 110 mph winds after weakening from a Cat. 4 to a Cat. 2 storm. It caused more flooding and an estimated $15 billion in U.S. damage. Hurricane Hanna developed on Sept. 1 but weakened during a long period wandering in the Bahamas. It then turned north and moved up the East Coast as a tropical storm. It made landfall in North Carolina Sept. 6 with top winds of 70 mph.
The sixth storm to make landfall in the U.S. was, of course, Hurricane Ike, which crashed ashore in Texas, near Galveston over the weekend, a 110-mph Cat. 2 storm. It has already been tagged with causing an estimated $27 billion in damage in the U.S., the third most destructive U.S. storm on record, after Andrew in 1992, and Katrina, in 2005. Better numbers are likely as more time passes.
In the meantime, check out these amazing before-and-after photos from the USGS. This is why people need to obey evacuation orders.
With two-and-a-half months to go, the 2008 season has so far produced more than half of the storms predicted for this year.
Named storms: 10 (Colorado State Univ. forecast: 17. NOAA forecast: 14-18)
Hurricanes: 5 (CSU: 9. NOAA: 7-10)
"Major" storms: 3 (CSU: 5. NOAA: 3-6)
Maybe we'll get lucky and find we're done. For now, the tropics remain quiet.
Hurricane Ike is still hours from landfall and already he has spread havoc up and down the Texas coastline. Coastal communities, including Surfside Beach are already flooded. At least one fire has broken out amid flooded beachside homes on Galveston Island (above). Coast Guard rescue crews have risked their own lives to rescue motorists caught in the flood waters as Ike's storm surge pushes inland.
Spend a little time with these videos on CNN.com I recommend especially the Coast Guard helicopter rescue. Here is a photo gallery.
The tidal data from Galveston shows that the rising water - some 7 feet above normal tides - has paused, but not retreated significantly as the cycle passes low tide. When the tide begin to rise again, the coast will feel the full impact of the surge. Forecast still call for a surge as big as 15 to 22 feet in Galveston Bay, and 14 to 17 feet for Galveston Island.
The weather data from the Pleasure Pier shows gusts to 50 mph. That will get worse. Top sustained winds near Ike's center were still 105 mph, with higher gusts. Houston has been warned to expect winds at higher altitudes to 120 mph - enough to blow out the windows of some Houston skyscrapers.
Did I mention a foot of rain and tornadoes?
Images, video and WeatherBug web cams are already showing flood waters moving up coastal streets, with waves battering waterside homes. And this is only the beginning. Ike's eye is not expected to reach the coast until late tonight or early tomorrow. Even some of those Texans who boasted they would ride it out have begun to change their minds. No wonder. Here are the Hurricane Warnings. Here's a piece of it, toned down slightly from last night's "leave or die" notice:
"NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY. VEHICLES LEFT
BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-
STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE
PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING
THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE
YEARS TO REPAIR.
What's ahead for Texas? Check out this video from Cuba, where Ike struck earlier this week.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. Here is the view from space.
The waters of the Gulf of Mexico are already rising ahead of Hurricane Ike as the giant storm closes on the northern coast of Texas and western Louisiana. Sea levels are already 5 feet above predicted tides, and forecasters are warning of an approaching storm surge that could push the water 20 to 25 feet above normal levels.
Video from the Texas coast shows beach communities are already awash. That's making WeatherBug meteorologist Joe Bartosik very nervous:
"I’m becoming extremely concerned by what I’m seeing on our own WeatherBug cameras, tidal gauges, and news clips: storm surge flooding placing communities well underwater (at least 4 to 6 feet) from Cameron, Louisiana to Galveston, Texas and the hurricane hasn’t even arrived yet! At this point, and with forecasts of a 20 to 25 foot surge, I don’t think it would be unrealistic or overly dramatic to expect extreme, if not catastrophic, storm surge damage similar to that which occurred in Katrina and Rita."
Here's how a WeatherBug camera in Galveston captured the storm surge this morning as it put water over a parking lot at Moody Gardens. Watch the parking space lane paint, and then the median strips, go under. This one will be good to watch as the storm itself moves in.
Here's the forecast for Galveston. And here are the warnings. It's quite a read.
That high water will drive miles up the bays, rivers and ship channels. Large, battering waves are expected to crash over coastal communities, with widespread damage. The warnings, as we have reported in the previous post, are dire. Anyone remaining behind in one- or two-story residences can expect "certain death," forecasters have stated.
The center of Hurricane Ike was 195 miles southeast of Galveston at 11 a.m. EDT today, moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph. It was expected to begin a gradual right turn later today, and to the north by tomorrow into the Southern Plains.
Top sustained winds had strengthened a bit overnight, to 105 mph. That's pretty close to the 111 mph threshhold for a Cat. 3 "major" hurricane, so its possible Ike could make that mark before landfall. A wind gauge 400 feet high on an offshore oil platform was reading 125 mph earlier this morning.
In the meantime, winds are rising and the barometric pressure is falling in the Houston and Galveston area. You can track conditions on this private weather station in Galveston . (First station I linked to shut down almost immediately. This link is a new one that still seems to be working).
Here is some realtime weather data from the Pleasure Pier in Galveston. Here's the tide data.
Here is the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forecast storm track. Here is the view from space.
Residents of Galveston who stay behind to "ride it out" in one- or two-story structures as Hurricane Ike approaches in the next 24 hours were warned by the National Weather Service tonight they will face "certain death" as a storm surge up to 22 feet high rolls across the island.
I have never seen a warning like this one, issued tonight for Galveston:
"LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!
"ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR."
Take a few minutes to read the warnings issued for Galveston tonight. It's terrifying.
Here's a sample:
"STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.
"PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.
"NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED."
And here's a bit of the storm advisory from the National Hurricane Center that deals with storm surge:
"COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST"
Given the developments with Ike during the day today, I yield the point on this storm. If all this plays out as forecast, Ike will indeed be a "monster."
Texas officials are warning residents of the Galveston area that the city's 17-foot seawall may well be overtopped as Ike comes ashore late tomorrow, and their homes on the island may be be flooded up to the eaves - 14 feet.
Ike may not have winds enough to put it into Cat. 4 or Cat. 5 territory. But it is a very broad storm and it is moving a great deal of water. Storm surges ahead of Ike, from the center to the east, could reach as much as 20 feet, forecasters are saying, and will almost certainly - even at lesser heights - cause disastrous flooding well up into Galveston Bay and elsewhere in the region.
If you've ever been to Galveston, you know what a lovely city it is, filled with beautiful old homes restored or rebuilt after the calamitous hurricane of 1900. That storm caused terrible damage and killed what has been estimated to be 8,000 people - maybe more. It remains the deadliest natural disaster ever to strike the U.S. One hates to see the city's homes suffer a similar fate 108 years later. But at least this time people have been given the information, the time and the opportunity they need to flee, unlike in 1900.
Is Ike a monster? If you measure it by storm surge, or square miles of ocean covered, maybe so. I've seen some impressive arguments to that effect since this morning's post and I'm willing to concede that point. It surely will be for those in its path. Here's the latest from the folks at WeatherBug:
"Ike may not be as strong as a Category 3 storm, but its impact could be similar. Offshore buoys have reported waves up to 30 feet. Also, tidal gauges along the coasts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi are 2 to 5 feet above normal. Strong easterly winds on the north side of Ike will continue to drive the waves along the coast, leading to a significant storm surge of perhaps 15 to 20 feet above normal tide just north of where Ike makes landfall.
"Track forecasts are also nudging northward as Ike is expected to move along the backside of a building subtropical ridge over the southwest Atlantic and the Southeast U.S. There is very good model agreement in taking Ike north of Corpus Christi, to just south of Galveston Bay, which increases the chances for significant impacts (wind, surge, tornadoes) in the Houston metro area. In addition, the oil refineries will be hit by strong winds and high waves."
If you measure "monstrous," after the fact, by the loss of life, by damage to the region (and repercussions across the economy if Houston is paralyzed, and the refineries are knocked out), it looks like we'll have the answer in a few days.
Then what? Should people be encouraged and subsidized to rebuild along the coast? Good question. Why does anyone build (or insure) homes in the paths of these storms? With enough time, calamity is inevitable. But of course they will rebuild, just as we would in Ocean City. Just as we have in Isabel's wake. And as sea levels continue to rise, these surge and flood events will only get worse. Makes you wonder how smart we really are.
Here's the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forecast storm track. Here is the view from orbit.
Hurricane Ike is still spinning with top sustained winds of "only" 100 mph - Cat. 2. But it is a sprawling storm, with hurricane winds more than 100 miles from its center. And those winds are pushing a storm surge ahead of them that could rise to 20 feet as the storm nears the Texas coast late Friday. The surge map above shows a 90 percent probability (dark red) of a 5-foot surge (or higher) around Galveston.
The National Hurricane Center's latest advisory says Ike's big surge should be expected to the east of wherever the storm's center goes ashore. The hurricane winds extend 115 miles from the center, while tropical storm winds reach 275 miles out. That's one very large storm, and it puts many more people and more property in serious danger.
Here's the latest advisory. Here's the forecast storm track. And here's the view from space.
Forecast models differ on how much, if at all, Ike will strengthen before landfall. Some say Cat. 2 when he goes ashore. Some say Cat. 4. Here's the discussion.
Okay, I've been grumping privately about this for a couple of weeks - ever since the CNN morning achors began referring to Hurricane Gustav as a "monster" storm as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico and threatened New Orleans.
This morning, they did it again. Only this time, Kiran Chetry used the word to describe Hurricane Ike, now closing in on the Houston area with another round of violent tropical weather nobody around the Gulf needs to see again.
Now, I do sometimes take issue with those who accuse the news media of "hyping" Atlantic hurricanes. These are dangerous storms, and there are thousands of lives and billions of dollars in property at risk whenever hurricanes or tropical storms make landfall. The media and government at all levels - as well as the general public - need to err on the side of caution every time. It would be far worse - as the Bush Administration learned after Katrina (photo above) - to do too little to prepare and to warn people about the possibilities.
That said, we also cannot afford to devalue the language we use in describing these storms and their potential consequences.
Gustav was no "monster." My dictionary defines "monstrous" as "Deviating from the norm in structure or appearance... unusually large ... hideous: shocking." Churchill described the Nazi regime as "a monstrous tyranny, never surpassed." Get the drift?
Gustav was, briefly, a strong Category 4 storm, with top sustained winds of 150 mph. But its encounter with Cuba knocked it back to a 135-mph Cat. 3. Despite forecasts to the contrary, it actually weakened as it moved in on Louisiana, and went ashore as a strong Cat. 2 storm.
It was bad. Twenty-five people died in the U.S. as a result of this storm. And damages came to something like $20 billion. But it was hardly the "Storm of the Century," or the "Mother of all Storms" that New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin warned his residents about. Now, you could argue that Nagin was just trying to motivate his people to flee, and avoid the scenes of death, desperation and squalor that followed Katrina. But what words will he use when a Cat 4 or Cat 5 bears down on his city again? And, given enough time, it will.
Ike is bad, too. Here's the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.
Ike is a Cat. 2 hurricane with top sustained winds of 100 mph. And forecasters say there's a chance he could become a Cat. 3 (111 mph or more) before making landfall on Saturday morning. But Ike is no monster, either.
The National Hurricane Center tells us that storms of Cat. 3 or more occur an average of 2.3 times each season. Now, for my money, you don't get to be a "monster" hurricane if you show up more than twice every season, on average.
So what about Cat. 4? The government's data shows that Cat. 4 storms strike the U.S. once every six years, on average. I'd use the word "historic" for those, perhaps. But "monstrous?"
To get a "monster" label from CNN, I would argue that you have to qualify as a Cat. 5 hurricane as you get within a few days of landfall. Katrina would qualify under that definition. She reached Cat. 5 status, however briefly, a day before landfall, but slowed to a Cat. 3 before touching the Louisiana coast. She killed more than 1,800 people, and caused $81 billion in damage.
Any Cat. 5 storm that makes landfall with that sort of power gets a free ticket to monstrous, in my book. That admits the Labor Day Storm of 1935, Hurricane Camille (left) on the Gulf Coast in 1969, and Hurricane Andrew in South Florida in 1992.
Cat 5 storms - with top sustained winds of 155 mph or more -form in the Atlantic, on average, once every three years, although the pace in the 2000s seems to have quickened. There have been only four years - 1960, 1961, 2005 and 2007 - when more than one Cat. 5 has formed in the same season. And 2005 was the only year in which two Cat. 5 storms (Dean and Felix) made landfall (not in the U.S.) at that strength.
Now that starts to sound more like "monster" to me. You could also make a case for using central barometric pressure as your measure of "monstrosity." I could live with that. I'd nominate any storm with a central pressure of 27.50 inches of mercury or less.
I would also allow the word to be used - after the fact - for the most destructive storms, such as Hazel (1954) and Agnes (1972), which, while not Cat. 5 storms, were monstrously destructive anyway.
But that's just me. What do you think?
Hurricane Ike now covers about half the Gulf of Mexico, a big, strengthening storm that is already about as big as its next target - Texas. Top sustained winds are running at 100 mph, with further strengthening to Category 3 expected tonight. Forecasters are talking about Cat. 3 or 4 winds of 130-135 mph just before landfall.
The exact point of landfall doesn't matter too much when hurricane winds extend 90 miles from the storm's center. It's best to get out of the way. Texans have already begun to evacuate low-lying coastal areas, with Corpus Christi increasingly in the storm's crosshairs.
Hurricane watches were posted this afternoon for most of the Texas coastline, with Tropical Storm warnings up for Louisiana's coast.
Here is the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the satellite loop. Here is how the meteorologists at WeatherBug see the storm's development.
UPDATE: Hurricane Ike is now a Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 100 mph. The storm continues to gather strength in the Gulf of Mexico, headed for a weekend landfall in Texas. Watch Ike grow in this satellite loop. An earlier post follows, below.
Hurricane Ike appears to be recovering from its scrape with the Island of Cuba, and appears ready to become a major hurricane again tomorrow, with designs on the central Texas coast.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center note that Ike's cloud pattern is becoming better organized, and some deep convection has developed near the center - both indications that the storm's primary heat engines are still healthy and revving up. Maximum sustained winds have increased from 75 mph as it pulled away from Cuba yesterday to near 90 mph today. Here's how the morning discussion at the NHC put it:
"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN, AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN FORECAST."
A Cat. 3 storm has top winds of at least 111 mph.
The storm was moving toward the northwest at 8 mph, with a slight left turn later today. A weakening high over the eastern U.S. is still expected to curve the storm track more to the right before or soon after landfall.
Here's the latest advisory for Ike. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
In the meantime, Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for waters west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas, and over portions of western Cuba as Ike's outflow continues to be felt there. They can expect 6 to 12 inches of rain. The Keys could receive another 1 to 3 inches, with 2 to 4 over other parts of South Florida. Isolated tornadoes, waterspouts, storm surge flooding, large and dangerous waves and rip currents are also still on the menu until Ike moves farther off. Here's some more video from Key West. And this, too.
In Texas, folks are preparing for Ike's landfall this weekend.
After battering Cuba for several days, Hurricane Ike - just barely a hurricane for the moment, has moved off the northwestern tip of the island and entered the Gulf of Mexico. Next stop?
Ike was about 90 miles west-southwest of Havana, moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. Top sustained winds are blowing at 75 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center, just two mph from slipping back into tropical storm range. But Ike somehow managed to retains his core structure, and central pressures remain low, according to the hurricane hunter aircraft. So he is expected to restrengthen over the warm waters and favorable winds along its path across the Gulf.
Some computer models show Ike becoming a major storm again, Cat. 3 or better. But others aren't so persuasive according to the latest discussion from the Hurricane Center. A weakening of the high pressure north of the Gulf suggests that Ike's track will begin to turn to the right a bit after four or five more days, putting the central Texas coast and the oil patch at greater risk.
Check out the Saturday forecast for Port Aransas, Tex.
Here is the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from space.
Hurricane Ike today was pounding Cuba with torrential rains and high winds. But contact with the island's mountainous terrain disrupted the circulation around the center and knocked the storm's top sustained winds down to "only" 80 mph.
Residents of Florida and the Gulf Coast should take no comfort in that, however, as forecasters expect Ike will revive as its center remains over warm water south of Cuba, and again when it moves into the eastern Gulf and slows. Re-strengthening is expected before the storm reaches the Gulf Coast later this week.
Here is the latest advisory for Ike. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
Here's a bit of this afternoon's discussion at the Hurricane Center. They seem to feel that high pressure to the north will keep Ike on a more westward path. That could spare the northeastern Gulf coast, and New Orleans. But it would seem to be sending the storm toward the La.-Tex border, or even Houston. Maybe Houstonians will be taking refuge in New Orleans this time.
We may be tempted to write Tropical Storm Hanna off as a "fizzle." But for many Marylanders, yesterday's tropical storm delivered a formidible punch in the form of heavy rain and high winds.
Portions of Montgomery and Frederick counties reported well over 5 inches of rain. Fifteen stations reported rains over 4 inches. Areas of Harford, Howard, Carroll and Cecil recorded more than 3 inches before the day was over. That was easily a month's rain in one day for many locations, and well within the forecasts we were seeing on Friday.
And while the sustained winds rarely topped tropical storm force (39 mph), the gusts often did, even in Baltimore City and its surrounding suburbs. Ocean City saw winds gusting to more than 60 mph during the storm.
Here are some of the MOST IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL READINGS, provided by WeatherBug.
The Bullis School, Potomac: 6.11 nches
Montgomery County Schools Transp. Dept.: Rockville: 5.95 inches
Diamond Elementary School, Gaithersburg: 5.18 inches
North East High School, (Cecil): 4.5 inches
Earth and Space Lab, Frederick: 4.3 inches
Mt. Airy Middle School, (Carroll): 4.13 inches
Nanjemoy Creek Env. Ctr (Charles): 3.71 inches
Manchester Elem. School (Carroll): 3.09 inches
Darlington Elem. School, Sykesville (Carroll): 3.01 inches
Folly Quarter Middle School (Howard): 2.99 inches
Shady Side Elem. School (Arundel): 2.77 inches
Wilde Lake HS, Columbia: 2.57 inches
Here are some MORE READINGS FROM CoCoRaHS, a network of volunteer weather observers.
WIND GUST DATA FROM WEATHERBUG this morning includes the following highlights:
Ocean City: 63.1 mph
Crisfield Fire Dept.: 55.9 mph
UMES, Princess Anne: 50.6 mph
MEMA Emergency Operations Center, Reisterstown: 44.5 mph
Oriole Park Camden Yards, Baltimore: 44.5 mph
Thurgood Marshall HS, Baltimore: 44.1 mph
Hamstead Hill Academy, Baltimore: 43.8 mph
Here is a compilation of wind and rain data from the National Weather Service. You can also view lists of storm damage reported to the National Weather Service by clicking HERE. Be sure to click through the many "Version" numbers at the top of the NWS page for more a comprehensive look at the reports.
The radar loop for the Northeast at 4:40 p.m. shows that most of Hanna's rains have passed through Central Maryland. Although the center of Hanna's rotation remains in the southern end of the Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva Peninsula, there is very little precipitation showing on radar to the south and west of Baltimore.
The rain gauge here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville reads 2.42 inches. All but a quarter-inch of that has fallen since daybreak today. That's a good bit of rain for 8 or 9 hours, but not the 3 to 7 inches forecasters warned of yesterday.
Out at BWI, the NWS instruments clocked only 1.6 inches. But Dulles International, in Northern Virginia, has reported almost 5 inches of rain today.
Other locations may likewise have seen far more rain than others. Flash flood warnings are in effect in several counties west of Baltimore and Washington. Most streams in the region are now running well above their norms for this time of year, and a few are at record highs.
We just ventured out and notice very high water - though no road flooding - on Beaver Dam Creek at York Road in Cockeysville. Western Run is also very high, but not out of its banks.
There is lots of ponding on the roads, and cars are throwing up some impressive rooster tails. Traction is dicey in some places where the water is laying on top of a thin layer of oil accumulated during weeks of dry weather. So drive carefully.
Here are some storm damage reports reported to the National Weather Service in Sterling. Plenty of downed trees and street flooding. Virginia seems to have had the worst time of it. You can click on the "version" numbers across the top for earlier reports.
Sorry this post is so late, but we lost power for a time this afternoon. BGE has reported more than 75,000 customers out of service today. More than 46,000 (including me) have already had their power restored.
Here is the latest advisory on Hanna. Here is the storm track. And here is the view from space.
If you woke up disappointed (or relieved) that the trees are still and the overnight rain has been a trifle, don't let down your guard just yet, Baltimore. Hanna is ashore, and she's slowed her maximum winds a bit. But she has not gone away.
Some outer bands sprinkled the region with a quarter-inch or so of rain over night. But there's more to come. The regional radar loop shows the situation best, with the heavier stuff still moving up the bay. They're getting winds over 20 mph in the southern Chesapeake, with more to come.
Here's the latest advisory. Here's the official forecast for BWI. Here's the storm track, which does not appear to have changed much. And here's the satellite view.
If you're along the bay and worried about surge, plan for 1 to 3 feet, not the higher amounts noted in today's story. Those are for locations east of the storm's center. We're west. That should have been made clearer.
This storm will move through the region today, pass to the south and east of the city and race off to the northwest this evening. A fast flyby will minimize the rain totals and the duration of any high winds. We hope.
Hanna is making her final approach to the U.S. mainland tonight. She's no hurricane, but it doesn't require a hurricane to generate a whole lotta trouble for Maryland. Isabel (2003) was a tropical storm. So was Agnes (1972).
I'm not saying we're in for anything like those storms. But it could easily be like Ernesto in 2006, or Jeanne in 2004. What? Forgotten those already? Me, too. But I read the clips. It was a mess. Plenty of structural damage, loose boats, flooding and power outages all over the place.
So stay inside. And if you have the electrical juice to read this, you can do what I do: Report on Hanna while sitting on your keister:
For the LATEST ADVISORY on Hanna, click here. For the LATEST STORM TRACK, click here. And for the LATEST VIEW of Maryland from orbit, click here. (IT WILL BE DARK UNTIL THE SUN COMES UP.)
Now, if you want to see where all the POWER OUTAGES are happening, and how BGE is doing cleaning them up, click here.
For lists of STORM DAMAGE AND OTHER INCIDENTS reported to the National Weather Service in Sterling, click here. (THIS, TOO, MAY BE BLANK UNTIL STUFF STARTS HAPPENING.)
For all the WATCHES AND WARNINGS current for Central Maryland and Northern Virginia, click here.
To track CONDITIONS ON THE CHESAPEAKE Bay, go to the John Smith Trail bay data buoys by clicking here.
For WEATHER RADAR from Sterling, click here. For WEATHER CONDITIONS AT BWI, click here.
For real-time weather conditions at PRIVATE WEATHER STATIONS almost anywhere around Maryland (including the very empty executive parking lot at The Baltimore Sun): click here.
If you do venture out, and you see cool weather stuff happening, drop a comment here. (BE PATIENT WITH OUR CREAKY SYSTEM. ALL COMMENTS HAVE TO BE NOTICED, AND THEN READ, USUALLY BY ME. )
Better yet, SUBMIT YOUR DIGITAL PHOTOS to our MarylandWeather.com Web site. GO HERE for that.
Be safe. Stay dry. And don't be a dope and try to drive through high water. Six inches of moving water can sweep you AND YOUR CAR away. TURN AROUND. DON'T DROWN. And don't make water rescue crews risk their lives to save your sorry self.
UPDATE 11:50 A.M.: The Tropical Storm Watch issued for Maryland has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. That means tropical storm conditions are now expected here within 24 hours. The warning includes all of the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac and the Eastern Shore. An earlier post continues below.
Sure, we'll get some bluster out of Hanna when she arrives tomorrow. Some limbs and maybe some weakened trees will topple, and power will go out for many of us. But I suspect it will be the rain that we remember once Hanna departs.
Central Maryland from Harford County south to St. Mary's and the Eastern Shore are all under a Tropical Storm Watch through Saturday. We should expect sustained winds tomorrow of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 50 mph throughout the day. The strongest winds are likely east of the I-95 corridor. Clouds in the outermost bands of Hanna are already approaching the Chesapeake. Here's a satellite phone shot at 11 a.m.
Flash Flood Watches are up throughout the region, too. Forecasters say we can expect 4 to 7 inches of rain before the storm is over, with localized accumulations of 10 inches. The rain could start as early as tonight. Although the low streamflow we're seeing now should leave plenty of room for the rivers and creeks to rise, there is still a danger of small-stream flooding into low-lying roads if rainfalls exceed 3 to 4 inches over three hours.
Storm surge flooding is also a danger tomorrow. Forecasters are warning that tides will run 2 to 4 feet above normal levels on the western shore of the Chesapeake and the tidal Potomac. Highest water levels should occur around the time of high tide tomorrow. - between 10 a.m. and 12 noon in the Baltimore and Annapolis areas, and between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. in the Washington area.
Here is the latest advisory on Hanna. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is how she looks from space. Here is AccuWeather.com's thinking on this storm and the next - Ike.
Out in Ocean City and the Eastern Shore, winds will run between 39 and 44 mph, with gusts to 60 mph during the day. Hanna will drop 4 to 6 inches of rain out there, if the forecast holds up. Coastal storm surge flooding will run 3 to 5 feet above normal levels.
Continue reading "Trop. Storm Warning Issued; Hanna toting 4 to 7 inches of rain" »
Parts of Maryland is now under a Tropical Storm Watch as TS Hanna continues its advance on the U.S. mainland. A new track forecast brings the storm up the coast, with the center line of the "cone of uncertainty" passing directly over Ocean City. Here's how it reads:
"A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS."
Central Maryland is also under a Flash Flood Watch for Saturday, with 3 to 6 inches of rain possible along the storm's path.
The good news? Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center this afternoon are saying that it is increasingly unlikely that Tropical Storm Hanna will strengthen to hurricane status before making landfall tomorrow. On the other hand, the old girl is not likely to weaken either, and "PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE," they said.
More precisely, Hanna was blowing with top sustained winds of 65 mph at last check. Hurricane force winds begin at 74 mph. Either one will knock you down, take out trees and utility lines and make a general mess of the place.
Tropical Storm Warnings are posted now all the way to the North Carolina/Virginia border. A Hurricane Watch extends to Currituck Beach Light in the Outer Banks, including Pamlico Sound.
The other news out of the Hurricane Center this afternoon was a slight twitch to the west in Hanna's forecast track. She could twitch again, of course. But if this latest track change holds up, the storm's center will run right up the coast - NOT offshore - passing directly over Ocean City. That would mean stiffer winds for the resort, for the Eastern Shore, and quite possibly for Baltimore. A bigger twitch to the left could send the center of the storm west of the Chesapeakem setting us up for some significant bay flooding.
Here's the latest advisory. Here's the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
The other concern, of course, is that Hurricane Ike is right behind Hanna, a few days east in the Atlantic. No assurances yet where he will go, but with top winds at 135 mph (down a tad from earlier today, but still extremely dangerous) we have to keep a close watch on that storm, too.
Here's the latest advisory for Ike. Here's the track map, and here's the view from space. That's one good-looking hurricane.
And here is the wind forecast map. It shows a 60 percent chance of tropical storm winds on the Eastern Shore. You can see Ike right on Hanna's heels. Josephine is about to enter at the right of the picture. But she seems to be falling apart.
Another sunny day in the 90s today. You'd never know we had two tropical storms to worry about. Tropical Storm Hanna has circled around and is now making a beeline for the Carolina coast with winds that are forecast to reach hurricane strength before landfall early Saturday morning. Out on the Atlantic, meanwhile, Hurricane Ike is now a fierce Cat. 4 storm with top sustained winds of 140 mph.
Here's a satellite loop showing both storms - Hanna in the Bahamas, and Ike - with a clearly defined eye - entering at the right side of the screen.
Hanna is first. A hurricane watch has been posted for most of the South Carolina coast, and a portion of the North Carolina shore. The watch means that folks there should prepare for hurricane conditions within 36 hours. Here's the latest advisory.
The storm's center early this morning was 770 miles south-southeast of Wilmington, N.C. It was tracking toward the northwest at 12 mph. Top sustained winds were blowing at 70 mph with "slight" strengthening expected prior to landfall. At 73 mph Hanna would become a minimal Cat. 1 hurricane.
The most notable thing about Hanna is her size. Forecasters describe Hanna as "large and robust." Tropical storm-force winds extend nearly 300 miles outward from the storm's center. The storm surge ahead of this storm will run 1 to 3 feet above normal tides.
The forecast track would carry Hanna up the coast, passing just offshore from Ocean City around mid-day Saturday. Our forecast calls for 3 inches of rain or more in Baltimore before the storm races off to the notheast.
With the storm's center to our east, that will mean our winds would be from the north at 13 to 23 mph. That would blow water out of the Chesapeake and spare bayshore residents any serious flooding from the bay. Street flooding and high water in the streams and creeks may be another matter to watch for. Here's today's local weather story by Scott Calvert.
Continue reading "Hanna heads for Carolinas; Ike a Cat. 4" »
The National Hurricane Center this afternoon upgraded Tropical Storm Ike to hurricane status. Farther west, Hanna was regrouping and turning for the Carolinas. And to the east in the Atlantic, meanwhile, Tropical Storm Josephine was losing strength.
UPDATE: 8:45 P.M. Ike has been upgraded again this evening. It is now a Category 3 storm with top sustained winds of 115 mph. Earlier post resumes below.
Ike is now the fifth hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic season. It was 670 miles east northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph with top sustained winds of about 80 mph. Forecasters said:
"THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE
AFFECTED BY IKE."
Here is the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forecast storm track, which would seem to carry the storm into the Bahamas by Sunday morning. And here is the view from orbit.
Farther east, Josephine was wheezing a bit, and may not survive. Here's the forecasters' assessment:
"STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE REALLY WORKED A NUMBER ON
JOSEPHINE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER LOOKING RATHER
IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
SINCE RAPIDLY DEGRADED. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THERE IS NOW A
NOTICEABLE LACK OF ORGANIZATION." Read more here.
Here is the latest advisory on Josephine. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is how she looks from orbit. Pitiful.
In the meantime, Hanna, our most immediate threat, seemed to be getting better organized, and the air pressure at her center was falling - a sign of intensification. You can read more here. Hanna is moving north at 12 mph, and was expected to accelerate. Top sustained winds remain at about 60 mph, but she is still expected to become a hurricane (73 mph) as soon as tomorrow.
Here is the latest advisory. And here is the view from orbit. She looks rather lopsided, but must still be taken seriously. Here's the storm track:
Continue reading "Ike now a Cat. 3 hurricane; Josephine weakens" »
Tropical Storm Hanna seems to have pounded Haiti and its unfortunate people long enough. Forecasters say the storm finally seems to have made her long-predicted turn to the north. Maybe. Top sustained winds remain at about 60 mph, but the old girl is getting bigger, and some strengthening is still expected in the next day or two as the storm heads for the U.S. mainland.
Hanna has been hammered by wind shear, which has left her a bit disheveled and disorganized. But she is still predicted to get ahold of herself and regain hurricane strength and get a wiggle on today and tomorrow, reaching the Carolinas early Saturday. Here's AccuWeather.com's predictably more eager assessment.
Here's our forecast. We here in central Maryland seem to have a 10 to 20-percent chance of seeing tropical-storm-force winds in the next five days. Ocean City's risk goes to 40 percent.
NASA's hurricane page reports that South Carolina's governor is warning that coastal evacuations are possible there, and the National Guard may be activated:
"In Georgia voluntary evacuations of Georgia’s barrier islands and low-lying coastal areas may begin today, Wednesday, Sept. 3. Meanwhile, federal, state and local emergency response teams, the American Red Cross were already preparing for Hanna's arrival."
Here is the latest Hanna advisory. Here is the storm track. The centerline in the "cone of uncertainty" now takes Hanna off the coast as she passes our latitude. If the storm does take that track (it could still come up the west side of the bay) that's good news for those worried about storm winds piling water northward into the bay. It also takes the strongest winds offshore.
And here is the looped view from space. Below is a NASA photo of Hanna, shot yesterday by the Earth-Observing Aqua satellite.
Tropical storm Hanna continues to sit and spin north of Hispaniola, with top sustained winds still below minimal hurricane strength. But forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say she is poised to begin her long-forecast run north and west toward the U.S. mainland.
In the meantime, storm trackers continue to follow tropical storms Ike and Josephine - still far out in the Atlantic.
As for Hanna, as odd as her meanderings near the Bahamas have been since last week, forecasters - and their computer models - seem to remain steadfast in their belief that she will turn sometime today and make a beeline for the coast of South Carolina, or thereabouts. Depending on just when she decides to get moving, we can expect to feel some effects on Friday or Saturday.
Here's a bit of this morning's discussion from the hurricane center:
"THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS.
HANNA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTAINED UPPER-AIR DATA FROM DROPSONDES
RELEASED AROUND HANNA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT...
WHICH USUALLY PRODUCES BETTER TRACK FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.
"THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WITH HANNA EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS BY 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS"
The current forecast for Maryland doesn't call for much that should get anyone too worried. An inch or two of rain and some breezes are about all they're calling for at the moment. There's a lot of land between Myrtle Beach and Baltimore, and plenty of time to calm a storm that seems unlikely to gather too much power between her present location and the Carolina beaches. And the track seems to have Hanna speeding through here very quickly. So there should be no long, lingering rains. There is always room for surprises, however. So stay in touch with the forecast.
So here's the latest advisory on Hanna. The storm track forecast is above. It appears to have shifted to the east a bit, taking the center east of the bay. That would seem to reduce the danger of storm surge flooding along the bay, if it holds. And here's how she looks from space. Kind of a mess this morning, I'm afraid.
Next up is Ike. Here's the latest advisory. Ike is expected to become a hurricane sometime today. Top sustained winds are now around 65 mph. Here's the storm track, which takes it into the Bahamas by Sunday. Those folks are having a bad time. And here's how he looks from orbit. A fine-looking storm.
And here is Josephine, with top winds around 60 mph, but still far off: the latest advisory. the storm track, which seems likely to keep this storm at sea. And the view from space. That's Josephine just entering the right side of the Atlantic-wide image.
As forecast, the latest tropical wave to roll off the African coast has gathered strength and made it to tropical storm status. She is Josephine, the 10th named storm of the season.
Here is the first advisory on Josephine. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit. (That's Ike to the left, Josephine to the right.)
Wave action spawned by Tropical Storm Hanna is already affecting Maryland beaches and those to our south. The National Weather Service has posted a Hazardous Weather Outlook noting "High Rip Current Risk" on the beaches (green on the map) from today right through the weekend.
Once-hurricane Hanna has been downgraded tropical storm status as she wobbles around between the Bahamas and Hispaniola. Those folks are getting a ton of rain and face high risks of flooding and mud slides.
There is growing uncertainty at the National Hurricane Center about whether this faltering Hanna can regain her hurricane intensity after being pummeled by wind shear for several days. Here's a bit of the discussion this morning:
"In about 24 hours, global models show the shear weakening, and this could allow Hanna to restrengthen. However, given the present lack of organization, it is difficult to know how much strengthening is possible. The new official forecast is lower than the previous advisory, but shows Hanna becoming a Cat. 1 hurricane in about 36 hours. It should be noted that this is a low confidence forecast. In fact, if one consults the wind speed probability product included in this package, it can be seen that there is nearly an equal probability of Hanna being a tropical storm or hurricane at Day 3."
That is, just before landfall.
The biggest concern for the mainland U.S. is the forecast track, which takes her up the coast off Florida this week, with landfall somewhere in Georgia or the Carolinas. That will likely mean we're facing a weekend of heavy rain, brisk winds and perhaps some risk of coastal storm surge flooding, depending on the storm's final path. With enough rain, we could also see some inland flooding as well, although the creeks are low and there's more than the usual capacity for runoff. At the very least, we need to start thinking of wet basements and the health of our sump pumps.
More immediate, though, is the danger of rip currents. AccuWeather.com has already reported one drowning south of Kure Beach, N.C. And lifeguards at Wrightsville Beach made 27 rescues on Labor Day as the powerful rip currents got some unwary swimmers into trouble.
Hurricane Hanna, which is still dawdling south of the Bahamas and just north of Haiti, is expected to strengthen this week, turn and head up the East Coast. It could be a "major" hurricane at landfall, according to this morning's discussion at the National Hurricane Center.
"Major" is NHC shorthand for a Cat. 3 storm or stronger - with top sustained winds of 111 mph or more.
The 5-day forecast track for Hanna (above) now sends it ashore in South Carolina, with its remnants passing just west of the Chesapeake Bay by late Saturday. If that forecast holds - a big IF - it would be the recipe for some serious rainfall this weekend. And if Hanna retains its counterclockwise rotation, it could also mean some significant storm surge up the bay. Probably not on the scale of Isabel's remnants in 2003, but most definitely something to watch.
Here is the latest advisory on Hanna. You have the storm track above. And here is the view from space.
Ike is now a tropical storm in the central Atlantic Ocean. Here's the latest on him. And the storm track.
And that other tropical wave that was coming off the African coast yesterday is now a tropical depression - No. 10 for the season. It is expected to become a hurricane by this weekend - Josephine if nothing else pops up in the meantime. That will be on next week's agenda.
Gustav is barely ashore - and still at hurricane strength as I write this - and to the east more trouble is brewing. Hanna finally reached hurricane strength this afternoon, and about midway between us and Africa, the ninth tropical storm of the season was born and immediately named Ike.
You may need a scorecard this week, as the remnants of Gustav continue to batter the country's midsection; Hanna begins to threaten the Southeast, and us by the weekend; Ike enters the picture from the Atlantic, and yet another storm brews off the coast of Africa and begins the long trek across the pond. Maybe the map above will help get you oriented.
Here's the rundown on Gustav. First is the latest advisory, showing Gus to be a minimal Cat. 1 storm this evening. Here's the forecast storm track, which looks take it on a long, slow curve back toward the Mississippi valley by week's end, leaving plenty of rain and flooding for Texas, Arkansas and Oklahoma. And here's the view from space.
Next is Hanna, which is nearly motionless east of the Bahamas. But she is expected to get a move on later this week, and could come ashore in Georgia or South Carolina by week's end. Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track, which could become interesting for us by the weekend. And here is the view from orbit.
Finally, here's Ike. The latest advisory; the storm track (aimed at the Bahamas for now), and the view from space.
If the newbie off Africa gets rolling, it will become Tropical Storm Josephine. Here's what the forecasters have to say about her:
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Here's our forecast for next weekend. Pretty wet. And here's how the forecast discussion from Sterling deals with it:
THE FORECAST BECOMES RAPIDLY UNCERTAIN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND TRAVEL NORTH ALONG THE
EDGE OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHICH AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE
SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS ... CHANGES IN THE FORECAST SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
AT MINIMUM...HANNA WILL BRING RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING
SOMETIME FRIDAY AND LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THE WIND FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND COMPLETELY DEPENDENT
ON THE TRACK...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF HANNA.
Hurricane Gustav was coming ashore in Louisiana this morning, a minimal but still deadly Category 3 storm with top sustained winds around 115 mph. Torrential rains and a dangerous storm surge were being felt all across the northern Gulf Coast.
Meanwhile, further east in the Atlantic, the tropics were boiling as Tropical Storm Hanna dawdled near the Bahamas, and at least two more disturbances appeared to be developing into tropical depressions that could eventually become threats.
Here is the latest advisory on Gustav. Here is the storm track. andd Here is how he looked from space.
You can check surface conditions at various data buoys in the area. Click here. And, if they are still operating, you can visit many private weather stations in Louisiana by clicking here.
Hanna remained nearly stationary east of the Bahamas, waiting for steering winds and more favorable conditions for further strengthening and some sense of direction.
Here is Hanna's latest advisory. Here is her forecast storm track, such as it is. It does show her as a hurricane, headed for the mainland, by the week's end. And here is how she looks from orbit.
And finally, here is the rundown on two disturbances in the central and eastern Atlantic that could become Tropical storms Ike and Josephine.
Hurricane Gustav remains a minimal Cat. 3 storm this afternoon after wind shear prevented an orderly ramping up of its power as it moved over warm currents in the Gulf. He is looking a little asymetrical in the satellite photos. Nevertheless, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say the storm is packing top sustained winds of 115 mph, and could restrengthen as it moves on toward landfall in Louisiana tomorrow.
Gustav's winds had slowed to within a couple of miles-per-hour of becoming a Cat. 2. But hurricane hunter aircraft probing the storm's core this afternoon found signs of a slow increase. It's not clear how much it might intensify from here. The waters from where Gustav is now to the 
coast are cooler (left), with less energy to lend the storm. And the wind shear continues to throttle the heat engines that power the cyclone.
That said, a Cat. 3 hurricane - even a "minimal" Cat. 3 - is still a fearsome thing, and nobody wants to stick around to test it.
The chief issue now is where, exactly, Gustav will go ashore. The forecasters and their computers are all over the place on this. The consensus seems to be that the surrounding atmospherics are shoving the storm track slightly to the west. The hurricane warnings have been moved west to High Island, Tex. On the other hand, the warnings that extend eastward to the Florida/Alabama line have not changed.
There is even more disagreement about where a weakened Gustav will go after landfall. Some models have it stalling out over Louisiana, Texas and Arkansas and dropping a flood on those folks. Other projections send the storm to the southwest. Still others turn it with the westerlies and carry it north and east - toward us!
Anyway, here is the latest advisory for Gustav. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is how he looks from space.
Looks like the party people have fled New Orleans. Here's a web cam view of Bourbon Street. And here's I-10. Ghost town. Here are more NOLA webcams.
Continue reading "Gustav stumbles, still dangerous; Hanna slows" »
A somewhat weakened, but still deadly Hurricane Gustav barreled on this morning toward a Monday landfall somewhere along the Louisiana Gulf coast.
The storm's encounter with western Cuba on Saturday took some of the punch out of its top winds. But Gustav remained a Category 3 hurricane, with top sustained winds of 120 mph at 8 a.m. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said "some restrengthening" is expected in the next 24 hours, and that Gustav could regain the Cat. 4 power it had mustered just before landfall in Cuba.
Here is the latest advisory from the NHC. Here is the forecast storm track, which hasn't changed much. And here is the view from space.
Here's AccuWeather.com's spin on Gustav. And, for those hungry for even more hype on this increasingly bus hurricane season, here's Henry Margusity's blog. He's already gassing his cars. He thinks Hanna will cross Florida after Gustav makes landfall tomorrow, and deal the Gulf Coast a second blow late in the week. And, he's guessing that the next storm - Ike - will pound the East Coast once it forms, strengthens and crosses the Atlantic. Are we getting ahead of ourselves?
Hurricane warnings - meaning the hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours - are posted today from Cameron, La., east to the Alabama/Florida state line. Those are the red lines on the coast on the map above. Tropical storm warnings - the blue lines - extend from the Florida line to the Ochlockonee River, in the Florida panhandle, and from Cameron, La. to High Island, Tex.
In all, tropical-storm force winds can be expected all across the northern coast of the Gulf, 200 miles outward from the center of the storm. Hurricane force winds extend up to 50 miles from the storm's eye. Big storm.
Mandatory evacuations are underway in parts of Louisiana, and especially in the New Orleans area. Detailed analyses of what caused the city's flood protection to fail in 2005, and three years of repairs and upgrades to the levees and flood walls and pumps have improved the city's chances, according to what engineers familiar with the work have told me. Among the key pieces of the project has been the installation of gates at the head of the canals leading out of the city and into Lake Pontchartrain. When the city has flooded in past storms, it has been from the lake. And during Katrina, it was lake water flowing in through breaks in the flood walls of the canals that did the worst damage. Now, at least, those canals are cut off from the Lake. They hope.
Six to 12 inches of rain - or 20 in some places - will severely test the flood barriers and pumps. And the storm surge could top 10 or 15 feet.
Worse, the construction needed to bring the entire system to a state of readiness for a Cat. 3 hurricane is not scheduled for completion until 2011, I'm told. Residents were promised in 2005 that the job would be done by the start of the next hurricane season. Turned out to be a tougher challenge than they thought.
At the very least, we can expect more devastation to the wetlands south and east of the city - the natural barrier against these storms. They have been eroding steadily since engineers began redirecting the river in massive flood control projects during the last century, and preventing fresh sediment from reaching the Delta. There are long-range plans to address those issues, but storms like Katrina and Gustav won't wait for engineers and taxpayers to get their stuff together.
Good luck to everyone in the path of this storm.
Continue reading "Gustav spins toward La. landfall Monday" »
As expected, Hurricane Gustav intensified overnight and is now a Cat. 3 hurricane, with top sustained winds of 115 mph. The storm continues on a northwesterly track, headed first for western Cuba, and by early Sunday into the Gulf of Mexico.
That's the 5-day tropical-storm-force wind forecast map above. The winds moving in from the east toward the Bahamas are from Tropical Storm Hanna.
Here is the latest advisory on Gustav, and a 6 a.m. update. Here is the very worrisome forecast storm track, and the view from orbit.
If there is any reassuring news at all this morning, it is that the storm, once it moves into the Gulf, will encounter cooler waters and more wind shear. That should limit its further intensification. But it's not exactly going away. Here's more, from this morning's tropical weather discussion at the hurricane center:
"BY 48 HOURS...ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV. IN ADDITION...SINCE
THE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION...THE HURRICANE
WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY
WEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GUSTAV IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST
CONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL."
Want more to worry about? There's another storm brewing in the Eastern Atlantic, and forecasters seem to be giving it good chances for developing into a tropical storm in the coming days. Here's the scoop.
Okay. This too gloomy. The best news I can find this morning is that the remains of Tropical Storm Fay have eased the terrible drought that's persisted for a year in the South, and especially in the western Carolinas. Have a look.
Maybe Gustav and Hanna will do their part, too. On the other hand, things are worse in Maryland - or they were before Fay finally reached us yesterday. Here's our drought map.
Tropical Storm Gustav is expected to grow and intensify rapidly today as it pulls away from the island of Jamaica and heads for the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say they're not sure yet precisely where the storm will make landfall early next week. But they warn that Gustav "is expected to be a large, powerful hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast."
Here's the latest advisory. Here's the very scary forecast storm track. And here's the view from space. That's getting to be a very impressive tropical cyclone.
And as if we needed to be worrying about other storms, the NHC is also watching tropical storm Hanna as it struggles to get itself better organized and aims for the Bahamas. Here's the latest advisory on Hanna. Here's the forecast track. And here's how she looks from orbit.
And, far to the east, off the African coast, another strong tropical wave is showing signs of rapid organization and could become the next named storm of the increasingly active 2008 Atlantic season. If so, it would be named Ike. Here's a look out there. (The storm is the one closest to the African coast.)
Gustav, of course, is the biggest and the most immediate worry. The storm is now centered about 100 miles west-northwest of Kingston Jamaica. Its top sustained winds are around 65 mph, and the clouds are dropping 6 to 12 inches of rain on Jamaica and the Caymans today. They can expect life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, forecasters warned.
The storm is expected to pass over or near the Cayman Islands later today or tonight, and strengthen over the very warm water in that part of the Caribbean. By the time it reaches the western end of Cuba this weekend, Gustav is likely to have reached hurricane strength again.
Here's the forecast storm track. Forecasters are wrestling with a very complicated problem in predicting Gustav's path across the Gulf and onto the U.S. landmass. High pressure over Florida is has been steering the storm to the west, but that's expected to weaken, allowing the storm to curve more to the northwest and into the Gulf.
But then there is low pressure over the southeastern U.S. Some models suggest that low could draw the storm more to the north. But there's also some analysis that suggests a high over Ohio (!) could have enough influence on the situatioin to steer the storm farther west. Go figure. With so many uncertainties about Gustav's speed and the timing of the whole dance, the thing remains something of a guessing game.
Here's how AccuWeather.com spins it. Here's NASA's hurricane page.
In the meantime, there's also a great deal of concern about Gustav's intensity. Still only a tropical storm, Mr. G is moving past the weakening influence of Jamaica's land mass and over some very warm water. That energy is going to fire Gustav up to hurricane strength, probably tonight.
But the big issue is what will happen after that. National Hurricane Center forecasters say the wind shear - cross-winds at high altitudes that can stall a hurricane's intensification - appears light where Gustav is going for now. That "could produce a strong hurricane very quickly," the forecast discussion said this morning. But there's more shear in the central Gulf. Here's more:
"The official forecast will show rapid intensification before it reaches western Cuba and could be conservative, as some models show Category 4 strength (top sustained winds of 131- 155 mph) at that time ... Although the forecast shows some weakening due to the shear, Gustav is expected to be a large powerful hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast."
Continue reading "Gustav will be "large, powerful" hurricane" »
Residents of the United States' Gulf Coast were keeping a wary eye on Tropical Storm Gustav today as the storm began to restrengthen in the Caribbean after battering itself against the mountains of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Authorities were already considering an evacuation from New Orleans. Here's more on accelerating storm preparations in Louisiana.
Meantime, a second storm was brewing in the Atlantic, with the potential to affect the East Coast next week. More on that one below.
Forecasters are still aiming their primary forecast track for Gustav straight into the Gulf by this weekend, with the center of the cone of uncertainty drawing a bead on Louisiana.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the view from space. The forecast track is above.
Gustav was centered this morning about 170 miles south of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. It was moving to the very slowly toward the west-southwest, gathering strength in some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin. That warm water - well over 80 degrees Fahrenheit - is where these storms draw their power.
The forecast called for the storm to turn toward the west later today, passing very close to Jamaica, where the government has issued a hurricane warning. By tomorrow Gustav is forecast to turn more toward the west-northwest, moving into the Gulf and approaching the Louisiana coast.
For now, top sustained winds were running near 70 mph, just under hurricane force. Gustav was expected to regain its hurricane status later today, and forecast models predict it will reach Cat. 2 or 3 by the time it enters the Gulf over the weekend.
And that, of course, is a huge worry for residents of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas, none of whom needs to grapple with a landfall by another big storm. Judging from the comments below this Times-Picayune story, many are already plotting their escape.
Already, this storm is forecast to drop 6 to 12 inches of rain over Haiti, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before it moves off. Isolated totals of two feet are possible, making dangerous mudslides and flash floods a real threat. Haiti and the Dominican Republic have already reported at least 22 dead.
Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tides is likely where the storm's winds are blowing onshore. And this is still a tropical storm.
Continue reading "Gustav gathering strength, will enter Gulf" »
Gustav, knocked back to tropical storm strength by its overnight encounter with the mountains of southwestern Haiti, is expected to regain its hurricane status in the next 48 hours and is beginning to look like a threat to Louisiana.
Hurricane warnings are up this morning for southeastern Cuba, including the U.S. base at Guantanamo Bay. A hurricane watch is up for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say their models have Gustav strengthening over the extremely warm waters south of Cuba in the next few days, then turning northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The numbers suggest Gustav would likely become a Cat. 3 "major" hurricane, with top sustained winds of at least 111 mph. And forecasters note that two of their models show it getting even stronger than that.
The storm's current forecast track takes it ashore on Monday anywhere from the Florida panhandle to southeastern Texas. But the center of the "cone of uncertainty" is aimed at southeastern Louisiana.
Needless to say, that kind of a storm, and that sort of trajectory has got to be worrying New Orleans, and all of the folks along the Louisiana coast, as we approach the third anniversary of Katrina's landfall there. Oil traders are also betting on damage to the offshore oil fields.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from orbit.
Gustav is now a Category 1 hurricane with top sustained winds of 90 mph and a direct threat to Haiti. But forecasters at the National Hurricane Center warn this morning that the storm will soon be moving over very warm waters, and "most indications are that Gustav will be an extremely dangerous hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days."
Here is the current advisory. And here is the view from space.
The current forecast track sends Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning. Surface waters there are a bit cooler than those south of Cuba. But they are warm enough at this time of year, and conditions are sufficient to warrant concern.
Gustav - the seventh named storm of the 2008 Atlantic season - became stronger still over night after growing yesterday from a tropical distubance, to a tropical depression, tropical storm and finally a hurricane all in one day.
The storm's center was about 75 miles south southeast of Port au Prince, Haiti this morning, moving toward the northwest at about 9 mph. Hurricane warnings were posted for the southern portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
A ridge of high pressure to the north was expected to steer the storm more toward the west for the next few days. A hurricane watch is posted for southeastern Cuba, including the U.S. military outpost at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. The storm was expected to pass just south of Guantanamo on Wednesday.
Top sustained winds were forecast to reach Category 2 strength (top sustained winds 96 mph) later today before making landfall in southwestern Haiti. residents of that region were told to expect rainfall of 4 to 7 inches, with some spots receiving up to 15 inches. Storm surges of 2 to 4 feet above normal tides were anticipated.
After leaving Haiti, forecasters said, Gustav "is forecast to be over extremely warm waters with relatively light shear. The official intensity is increased and now calls for Gustav to be a major hurricane [Category 3 or higher, top sustained winds of 111 mph or higher] in the northwest Caribbean Sea. It is worth noting that [two computer models] ... show an even stronger hurricane."
If Gustav moves on into the central Gulf of Mexico, it will become a threat to offshore oil operations. That would surely have an impact on the oil markets. At that point, the storm, while it could well weaken, would almost inevitably make landfall somewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Once in the Gulf, there is no way out for these storms except to crash ashore.
In the meantime, forecasters are also watching two other Atlantic disturbances that could become more developed in the coming days.
UPDATE: It's Gustav. The storm brewing in the Caribbean today has reached tropical storm strength. Here is the latest advisory. The storm track is above. Here is the view from space. The earlier post follows:
Hurricane forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are now watching a new tropical depression - TD 7 - in the east-central Caribbean. It is showing signs of further organization, and could pose a threat from Jamaica to the Bahamas in a few days. Storm-battered Forida could also be in this storm's path.
The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or early tomorrow. Interests in Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas have been advised to pay attention to this system. Tropical storm warnings are already posted along the southern coast of Hispaniola. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft was scheduled to investigate the storm and gather data this afternoon.
If this system reaches tropical storm status, with top sustained winds of 39 mph, it would be given the name Gustav, the seventh named storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.
Even as Tropical Storm Fay continues to bedevil Florida, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching the next two disturbances lined up across the tropical Atlantic for signs of development.
Neither one is very well organized at the moment, but forecasters say conditions will slowly become more favorable for them as they drift across the ocean toward the Antilles.
The first in line is centered about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands. It's headed west northwest at 15 mph. The second is midway between Africa and the West Indies, east northeast of the first storm. This one is also drifting west northwest at about 15 mph.
This is the time of year when the eastern tropical Atlantic begins to crank out these tropical waves and send them off across the Atlantic like pies down the conveyor belt. Some fall apart, but others get their acts together in a big way. Those are the storms that can track toward the East Coast, and landfall along the Florida or Carolina shore. That's when we start to pay close attention.
It was just that type of tropical storm that bashed the coast from Virginia to New Jersey in 1933. Ocean City took a terrible hit, but the Great Hurricane of 1933 (or the Chesapeake and Potomac Hurricane, as some called it) cut a new inlet across the barrier island at Ocean City and gave the resort direct access to the sea. That proved to be an economic boon to the town. The cleansing tidal flow into the Sinepuxent Bay also fixed the terrible pollution that had plagued the bay side.
You can read more about the 1933 storm, and see a gallery of photos from The Sun's archives, on our Website today, if you haven't already. Just click here.
Here's the latest advisory on Fay. Here's the storm track. and here's the view from space.
You know it's been raining too long in Florida when airport officials start delaying flights to give them time to clear the catfish from the runways.
But it seems that's exactly what happened yesterday at Melbourne International Airport. To be fair, the four catfish weren't exactly swimming. They were walking on their pectoral fins. (There is some weird wildlife down there. That's a "walking catfish" at left.) But the fact remains they'd been emboldened by their expanding watery world to begin speculating on new property they seemed destined to inherit.
After all, Melbourne has been in the bullseye of this storm, clocking more than 20 inches of rain from Tropical Storm Fay and counting.
So, air traffic controllers had to delay incoming flights until crews could walk the runways and clear off the fish - and other critters - that had begun to flee their waterlogged homes and stake their claims on whatever was left to them.
In addition to the catfish, the airport wranglers rounded up two gopher tortoises (right), a blue indigo snake (left) and, of course, an alligator.
Don't believe me? Here's the report from WFTV in Melbourne.
You can say what you want about the way the news media hype tropical systems that never really grow into "dangerous" hurricanes. But Fay is a good example of why we can't afford to ignore the little storms.
Although it never achieved hurricane status, slow-moving Tropical Storm Fay is dropping a tremendous amount of rain on the state of Florida. She has already caused at least one death in the state, sparked tornadoes, caused severe flooding and produced record rains. And there's more to come.
I just checked Cocoa Beach, just south of the Kennedy Space Center. I count more than 21 inches of rain since Tuesday morning. I don't care where you are, or how well you think you can handle a "small" storm like this one - 21 inches of rain is dangerous and capable of causing tremendous damage. Add winds of TS strength and you're going to wish you lived somewhere else.
Agnes (in 1972) was a hurricane only briefly. And Isabel (in 2003) was knocked down to tropical storm status immediately after making landfall in North Carolina. But both caused tremendous damage and deaths.
Here are some more rainfall totals from East Central Florida.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE 16.83"
MELBOURNE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 13.32"
VIERA 18.42"
WINDOVER FARMS 24.80"
FORT PIERCE 11.26"
SCRIPPS SPACE COAST REPORT FROM SEBASTIAN- PUBLIC - 18.50"
Here's a rainfall estimate map, based on radar data. And it's still coming down. Here's the word from the hurricane center:
FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN FLORIDA.
Looks like Tropical Storm Fay won't make it to hurricane status, and is more likely to fade as she moves north along the Florida peninsula. And the computer models seem to be falling into agreement that the storm's remnants will not make it to Maryland.
Here's the latest advisory. Here's the current forecast track. And here's Fay viewed from orbit. Got reservations in Orlando? Lotsa luck. Here are some Orlando web cams. Kinda soggy.
Our forecast, after noting a slight chance for an isolated shower late today as a "back door" cold front drops across the region, shows nothing but sunny weather right through the weekend.
That cold front will drop our daytime highs from around 90 degrees again today, to the low- to mid-80s for the rest of the week. That's about normal for this time of year. Yesterday's high of 91 degrees at BWI (it was 92 here at Calvert & Centre streets) was way out of line. The BWI record for the date was 96 degrees, reached in 2002. That sun was scorching!
In addition to cooling us off, the cold front, and the high pressure behind it, will block the advance of Fay's remnants, forecasters say. The computer models have the storm either dissipating as it tramps inland across the South, or being deflected by the circulation around the high pressure system toward the north and west, bringing lots of rain to the Deep South or the lower Mississippi Valley.
Go figure.
In the meantime, there is another storm brewing far out in the tropical Atlantic. Looks a bit unfavorable for rapid development, but forecasters are watching it.
Everybody's watching Tropical Storm Fay this morning as the big blow heads north across Cuba and draws a bead on South Florida. The center of the forecast track probabilities runs straight up the west coast of Florida. Forecasters have her reaching hurricane strength briefly before moving inland and weakening.
Watches and warnings are up in the Florida Keys and both sides of the peninsula. Here's the Miami forecast. Not pretty. It's worse for Sarasota.
Beyond Florida, if Fay takes the middle road, the wind and heavy rain will move north into Georgia and the western Carolinas later this week, bringing desperately needed rain. Maybe too much; we'll have to wait and see. But these tropical storm remnants are usually what knocks down stubborn summer droughts.
Here in Maryland, there is nothing in the forecast yet. Forecasters seem to be betting that high pressure over our part of the country will keep Fay's remnants from moving this far north. Here is this morning's discussion from Sterling.
For now, here is the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from orbit.
The National Hurricane has announced that the stormy weather gathering in the area of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic has reached tropical storm strength, and has been named Fay.
The storm is moving to the west at 14 mph, with top sustained winds of just 40 mph. No strengthening is expected until the system clears the mountainous islands and moves back over warm water. In the meantime, watches and warnings have been posted from the Dominican Republic to Cuba.
Here's the latest advisory. Here's the forecast storm track which, for now, seems likely to provide some badly needed drought relief to the Southeast. And here is the view from orbit.
The National Hurricane Center is watching stormy weather in the northeast Caribbean that is now affecting Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. It is getting better organized and could become a tropical depression later today.
If it develops further into a tropical storm, it will be named Fay.
Hurricane hunter aircraft from NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve will be flying through the storm today to gather more data.
Forecasters have issued a statement urging interests from the Virgin Islands to South Florida to prepare for locally heavy rains and gusty winds. Here's AccuWeather,.com's take on the storm's prospects, and their storm track map, at right.
The storm is expected to move up the East Coast next week, and could be affecting Maryland weather around the middle of the week, according to forecasters at Sterling, Va. Here's a snippet from this morning's discussion:
"WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK."
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are still tracking two disturbances in the tropical Atlantic, either or both of which could develop into tropical storms in the coming days. And while no one would wish a disaster on islands in the Caribbean, or on communities along the Southeastern coastline of the U.S, these storms can have their upside.
I'm talking about rain. There are still parts of the Southeast that have never recovered from last year's drought. Some of the most severe drought conditions in the nation persist in portions of northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas.
Souch drought conditions in summer are frequently ended in August or September by a tropical storm or two that stumble ashore along the Gulf Coast or in northern Florida or the Carolinas.
But it didn't happen last year. The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season never really paid off for the Southland. All but one storm bypassed the region entirely. And even as Maryland's drought was relieved over the past winter, conditions to our south, as noted on last week's Drought Monitor map (below), remain in what is defined as "exceptional" drought - the worst category on the scale. More than half the region is in "severe" drought, or worse.
No one can say yet whether either of the two areas of bad weather in the Atlantic will develop into tropical storms, much less where they will take their rain. But AccuWeather.com is projecting storm tracks that at least point in more or less, kind of, the right direction.
Whatever the fate of these storms, we need to spare a kind thought for tropical weather, and the potential benefits it can bring to drought-stricken regions of the country.
A new disturbance (No. 1 above) is brewing in the central tropical Atlantic, and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say conditions are favorable for the bad weather to develop into a tropical depression during the next couple of days. A U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and crew are ready to investigate the disturbance later today if called upon.
At the same time, there is a second area of low pressure (2 above) just east of the first stormy region. It's off the coast of West Africa, near the Cape Verde Islands, and has been getting better organized overnight. It could follow the first storm across the Atlantic and pose a second threat if development continues.
Here is the Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. And here is a satellite view of the Atlantic.
Tropical Storm Edouard has made landfall on the northwest Gulf Coast without ever reaching hurricane strength. That's good news for the people who live and work in the region. But they still face considerable damage and hardship from the strong winds - up to 65 mph - heavy rains and storm tides that are battering the area today.
Here is the latest advisory on Edouard. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
There was another terrific satellite image of the storm, taken at mid-day Monday. It showed Edouard looking more organized and symmetrical, suggesting that another couple of days in open water could have turned it into a really serious threat. Here's a closer look at the photo.
If you've written Edouard off as no serious problem for the coastal region, think again. Here is the forecast for today in Houston. They are looking at rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches an hour today, with accumulations up to 6 inches. Eight inches are possible in some spots.
In addition, isolated tornadoes, flash floods, property damage from high winds and storm surges are also possible.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say that Tropical Storm Edouard, after a faltering a bit overnight, appears once again to be strengthening as it cruises westward toward landfall tomorrow somewhere along the upper Texas Gulf Coast.
At 8 a.m. Monday it was centered about 80 miles south-southwest of Grand Isle, La., with top sustained winds of about 50 mph. When and if those winds reach 74 mph, Edouard will be ranked as a hurricane.
Hurricane watches have been posted from west of Intracoastal City, La. to Port O'Connor, Tex. That means hurricane conditions could develop within 36 hours. That's in addition to the Tropical Storm Warnings issued from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to San Luis Pass in Texas.
Forecasters are warning of a storm surge 2 to 4 feet above normal high tides in the TS warning area. People in the storm's path could also see 2 to 4 inches of rain, with as much as 6 inches in isolated spots in southeastern Texas.
Here's the latest advisory on Edouard. Here's the forecast storm track. And here's the satellite loop.
T
he National Hurricane Center reports that a new tropical depression has formed today in the northern Gulf of Mexico, headed west toward the Texas Gulf Coast. It is the fifth of the season, and, if it strengthens as predicted will soon become Tropical Storm Edouard.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the satellite loop.
Tropical Storm Bertha has begun to strengthen, but has also begun to high-tail it off toward the north east, away from Bermuda and straight toward oblivion as a tropical system.
So forecasters have turned their attention to several other regions that have been boiling up in recent days. One is an area of low pressure off the Georgia coast that could become a tropical depression in the next day or two. It began earlier this week as an area of showers and storms in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. It has since crossed the Florida peninsula and is reorganizing in the Atlantic.
Forecaster says it's producing thundershowers and gusty winds offshore, but barometric pressures are falling in the area and conditions are getting more favorable for development.
That said, there doesn't seem to be much concern that it will affect us this far north, but forecasters at Sterling say "it still bears watching." The storm is expected to drift to the north or northeast. We'll see. It could become a factor for cruise passengers headed from Baltimore to Bermuda this weekend.
Hurricane forecasters are also watching a low pressure system in the Caribbean north of the Dutch islands of Aruba and Curacao. Heavy rains and gusty winds are possible there as the storm strengthens. Reconnaissance aircraft will fly through the region today. But a tropical storm could form there by the weekend. If so, it will be the third named storm of the season - Cristobal.
Finally, there is another storm system over the western Caribbean, Honduras and Nicaragua. Forecasters don't expect it to become a tropical storm, but heavy rains and strong, gusty winds could cause life-threatening flash floods and landslides in the region.
Tropical Storm Bertha, now almost two weeks old, continues to wander the western Atlantic, zigging to the southeast just north and east of Bermuda and pestering the island and shipping, but not posing a direct threat to land. She's a bit stronger today, with top sustained winds of 70 mph.
Here's the latest advisory, and the forecast track. And here's the view from orbit.
In the meantime, hurricane forecasters are watching two other patches of the Gulf of Mexico and the tropical Atlantic that are producing wind and rain. The first is off the west coast of Florida. Folks there are looking at heavy rains for the next day or two, but the system, such as it is, is likely to move over land and is not likely to get organized.
Satellites are also tracking an area of stormy weather in the Atlantic just east of the Windward Islands. That one is getting better organized, although conditions aren't ideal for strong development. Air Force Reserve storm chasers are being sent in for a closer look this afternoon. In the meantime, the bad weather is expected to produce locally heavy rains and gusty winds in the islands in the coming days.
Bertha has begun to turn slightly more northward, weakening as she moves into a region of wind "shear," which tends to limit further growth. It's beginning to eliminate the risk to the U.S. East coast from this storm. It may even get Bermuda off the hook.
Here's the latest advisory. Here's the latest forecast storm track. And here's the view from space.
The National Hurricane Center says Bertha's top sustained winds have reached 115 mph, making it a "major" Cat. 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity. If nothing else, this will be boosting the surf along the Altantic coast in the coming days.
The primary concern for now looks like a strike on Bermuda. Here's the latest advisory. Here's the current storm track forecast. And here's the view from orbit.
More on the "What's the Deal" blog, and the "Midnight Sun" blog.
And here's AccuWeather.com's take on Bertha and where's she's headed. The right set of circumstances, they say, could still bring Bertha on toward the U.S. East Coast.
Tropical Storm Bertha became a hurricane early today, spinning up with top sustained winds of 90 mph. It could become a Category 2 storm before the day is out. Bertha is still far out in the Atlantic, and no immediate threat to land. But while we wait to see where the winds take her, we can amuse ourselves with coincidences.
This is not the first Bertha to come along. The National Hurricane Center notes that another Bertha formed on almost exactly this date in 1996 - also far out in the tropical Atlantic (as opposed to the Caribbean, which is more common at this time of year).
That Bertha tracked somewhat south of this year's Bertha, and came ashore near Wilmington, N.C. It caused eight deaths and $250 million in damage in the U.S. Here is the full report on Bertha 1996. It also had some impact in Maryland, including 5 inches of rain on the Eastern Shore (2.2 inches at BWI). Anybody remember Bertha '96?
There was also a Tropical Storm Bertha in August 2002 that menaced the Gulf coast of Texas and Louisiana. The name lists are recycled every six years. Only the most deadly and destructive storms have their names retired.
Meanwhile, Bertha '08 is steaming across the Atlantic, headed west northwest. Depending on which storm track projection you see, it could swing north and smack Bermuda, or make its turn later and affect the U.S. East Coast. Here's the latest advisory. Here's the latest storm track forecast. And here's the satellite loop.
For a discussion of the forces that could influence Bertha's track, drop by AccuWeather.com
Wherever she goes, Bertha is likely to make for rough seas. A track toward Bermuda could mean extra trouble for passengers due to embark in Baltimore on Saturday for next week's Norwegian Cruise Lines voyage to Bermuda. Is that you? Read more at the "What's the Deal" Blog.
On the other hand, a more muscular Bertha could pay dividends for a certain Fells Point watering hole and its patrons. Check out Sam Sessa's Midnight Sun blog.
Tropical Storm Bertha, the second storm of the 2008 Atlantic season, was born this morning in the far eastern Atlantic, near the Cape Verde Islands. She sports top sustained winds of 40 mph and is tracking toward the west northwest at 14 mph.
It's pretty early in the season for such Cape Verdean storms to spin up. Not sure whether that suggests anything about what lies ahead for us, but as they say in the editorials, this bears watching.
Here is the latest advisory on Bertha. Here's the latest storm track forecast. And here's a view form space:
Hurricane Dean's wreckage in Mexico - AP Photo
We don't remember it as a particularly bad hurricane season because there was little impact in the U.S. But three storm names on last year's list for the Atlantic basin have been retired for all time because of the deaths and destruction the storms wreaked across the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America.
Members of the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee voted at their annual meeting in Orlando, Fla. to permanently retire the names Dean. Felix and Noel. Normally, name lists are recycled every seven years. So these three would have reappeared on the 2013 list for the Atlantic. Instead, they will be replaced by Dorian, Fernand and Nestor.
Hurricane Dean blew into the season's first Category 5 storm and crashed ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Aug. 21 last year. At least 32 people in the storm's path perished.
In September, Hurricane Felix crossed the Caribbean and it, too, became a Cat. 5 storm. It went ashore in Nicaragua as a Cat. 5 on Sept. 4, the first time two storms have made landfall at that strength in a single season since record-keeping began in 1851. Another 130 people died.
In October, Hurricane Noel formed in the Caribbean and caused great damage in the Dominican republic, Haiti, Jamaica and the Bahamas before it even reached hurricane strength. At least 160 people died.
And you thought the hurricane season was over ... The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories for a new "sub-tropical storm" which has earned the name Olga - the 15th named storm of the 2007 Atlantic season.
The storm is headed for Puerto Rico with winds up to 40 mph and 2 to 4 inches of rain - maybe 6 inches in some locations. That could mean flash flooding and landslides on the U.S. island and farther west on Hispaniola.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the storm's projected track. And here is the satellite view.
The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season ended 10 days ago, but that hasn't stopped the development of a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean that threatens the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with damaging rains and mudslides.
Here's the statement from the National Hurricane Center. Here's the satellite view.
This week marks the official end of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, and forecasters are taking some hits from critics who say they overshot the season's actual severity again.
First, the season's stats: We saw 14 named storms - Andrea through Noel. There were eight tropical storms that got no stronger than that, and five others that became hurricanes: Dean, Felix, Humberto, Lorenzo and Noel. In addition, there was one sub-tropical storm in May that jumped the season's official start on June 1, and two tropical depressions that never got organized well enough to spin up and win a name.
Of the five hurricanes that did form, two became "major" storms of Category 3 or higher. Those were whoppers. Hurricanes Dean in August, and Felix in early September, both reached Cat. 5 status and made landfall with winds over 160 mph. Dean was the 9th most intense Atlantic storm on record, and the third-most intense at landfall. It was only the second time since 1961 that more than one Cat. 5 storm formed in one season. The last time was in 2005, when four storms got that powerful, including Katrina.
Dean and Felix killed at least 175 people and caused billions of dollars in damage. Had they not struck sparsely populated regions of Mexico, Nicaragua and Honduras they surely would have done far more damage.
But after that, the season was remarkably tame. Hurricanes Humberto, Lorenzo and Noel never strengthened beyond Cat. 1. Even so, Noel killed more than 150 people due to flooding and mudslides on Hispaniola early this month before prowling up the Florida coast, kicking up the surf. But he never made landfall.
So how did the forecasters do?
The NOAA forecasters last May predicted the 2007 season would generate 13 to 17 named storms before scaling that back slightly in August. Not bad. But they said 7 to 10 would become hurricanes, and 3 to 5 of those would reach Cat. 3, overshooting the actual experience (5 and 2) on both counts.
The famed team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray at Colorado State University predicted in April the season would produce 17 named storms, including 9 hurricanes, of which 5 would reach Cat. 3. So they overshot the mark, too. They, too, were compelled to scale back their forecast as the season wore on.
Both groups had predicted an "active" season compared with the long-term averages. As it turned out, 2007 (at 14 names storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 Cat. 3 storms) was very close to an average season (11, 6 and 2).
That should come as a relief. But clearly we have a lot to learn about hurricane forecasting.
Now here's a story I wish somebody had tipped me off to. Early this month, the AAI Corporation, of Hunt Valley, a leader in the development of unmanned aircraft, flew an unmanned airplane into the core of Hurricane Noel as it blew up the East Coast. It was the first time anyone had successfully flown a craft like this into a hurricane. And nobody tipped off the newspaper.
The "Aerosonde" unmanned aerial system (UAS) - a small, lightweight, propeller-driven "pusher"-type craft carrying weather instruments and communications gear, has a 9.5-foot wingspan. It was launched on Friday Nov. 2 from the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, on Virginia's Eastern Shore. It flew as far as 500 miles from Wallops, and straight through the center of the storm at altitudes between 300 and 500 feet according to a NASA release. It zipped around out there for 7 1/2 hours in 80 mph winds, skimming just 300 to 500 feet above the waves. And there were some formidible waves out there, as surfers all along the coast found out.
AAI controlled the flight from Wallops, and relayed the data back to the National Hurricane Center in Miami to aid their forecasting. It's valuable data from where the sea meets the atmosphere. It apparently tells forecasters a lot about what's going on in a hurricane. And it's data that manned aircraft will never be able to recover. It's just too dangerous to fly that low in a hurricane. Drop-sondes - the instrument packages the Hurricane Hunters drop into the storms from higher altitudes are useful, but having a little instrumented airplane you can send anywhere you need it without risking a human life will be a boon to forecasters.
Here's the NASA release on the flight. Here's AAI's version. And here's a nifty video.
Hurricane Noel is about to become a powerful extratropical storm, losing its tropical engine but remaining a ferocious Atlantic storm with top winds of 80 mph. It is already battering the Atlantic coast, and threatens Cape Cod, and the rest of coastal New England this weekend, and is fated to go ashore in the Canadian maritime provinces. We'll see this one on the news.
Here's a link showing all the ships at sea, and which are in the storm's path. Click to zoom in and see the ships' names.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the satellite view. And here is the forecast for Halifax, Nova Scotia. Batten the hatches.
Tropical Storm Noel now has sustained winds of just below hurricane strength as it turns north northeast, crosses the western corner of the fabled Bermuda Triangle and heads for the Canadian Maritime provinces. Here's the latest advisory.
Tropical storm warnings for southeast Florida have been dropped, but a hurricane watch is posted now for the northwest islands of the Bahamas, with watches elsewhere in the islands. And gale warnings are up for Bermuda. Not a good time to be cruising to Bermuda, folks. But the surf will be up along the Atlantic beaches, including Ocean City this weekend. That's Jupiter Inlet, Fla. in the photo above. Florida beaches are taking a pounding and beach erosion has become a big concern. Beachside structures are threatened along 400 miles of coastline.
The storm is expected to merge with the prevailing weather systems now dominating the North Atlantic, thus becoming "extratropical." But that only turns it into a kind of nor'easter, still a powerful storm at sea and nothing to be trifled with.
Here's the satellite loop.
Tropical Storm Noel is pulling away from the north coast of Cuba after pummeling the Greater Antilles with high winds, heavy rain, deadly flooding and landslides. It appears to be strengthening as it gets away from the mountainous islands, and Florida's Gold Coast has been warned to expect high winds as Noel begins to skirt the shoreline.
UPDATE: A tropical storm watch has been issued this afternoon for Florida's southeast coast.
EARLIER: It does NOT appear that the storm will go ashore anywhere on the U.S. mainland. But as it turns northward, it will likely affect the coast with heavy surf and winds. Florida is already under high wind advisories or gale warnings, and those could be boosted to tropical storm warnings if the storm gets stronger and moves close enough to the Atlantic beaches.
Here is the latest advisory. Here's the predicted storm track. And here's the view from space.
