Tropical Storm Bertha, the second storm of the 2008 Atlantic season, was born this morning in the far eastern Atlantic, near the Cape Verde Islands. She sports top sustained winds of 40 mph and is tracking toward the west northwest at 14 mph.

It's pretty early in the season for such Cape Verdean storms to spin up. Not sure whether that suggests anything about what lies ahead for us, but as they say in the editorials, this bears watching.

Here is the latest advisory on Bertha. Here's the latest storm track forecast. And here's a view form space: 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

                                                                       Hurricane Dean's wreckage in Mexico - AP Photo 

We don't remember it as a particularly bad hurricane season because there was little impact in the U.S. But three storm names on last year's list for the Atlantic basin have been retired for all time because of the deaths and destruction the storms wreaked across the Caribbean, Mexico and Central America.

Members of the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee voted at their annual meeting in Orlando, Fla. to permanently retire the names Dean. Felix and Noel. Normally, name lists are recycled every seven years. So these three would have reappeared on the 2013 list for the Atlantic. Instead, they will be replaced by Dorian, Fernand and Nestor.

Read more about it here.

Hurricane Dean blew into the season's first Category 5 storm and crashed ashore on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Aug. 21 last year. At least 32 people in the storm's path perished.

In September, Hurricane Felix crossed the Caribbean and it, too, became a Cat. 5 storm. It went ashore in Nicaragua as a Cat. 5 on Sept. 4, the first time two storms have made landfall at that strength in a single season since record-keeping began in 1851. Another 130 people died.

In October, Hurricane Noel formed in the Caribbean and caused great damage in the Dominican republic, Haiti, Jamaica and the Bahamas before it even reached hurricane strength. At least 160 people died.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:30 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

And you thought the hurricane season was over ... The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories for a new "sub-tropical storm" which has earned the name Olga - the 15th named storm of the 2007 Atlantic season.

The storm is headed for Puerto Rico with winds up to 40 mph and 2 to 4 inches of rain - maybe 6 inches in some locations. That could mean flash flooding and landslides on the U.S. island and farther west on Hispaniola.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the storm's projected track. And here is the satellite view.

Continue reading "Olga - hurricane season's last gasp" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season ended 10 days ago, but that hasn't stopped the development of a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean that threatens the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico with damaging rains and mudslides.

Here's the statement from the National Hurricane Center. Here's the satellite view.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

This week marks the official end of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, and forecasters are taking some hits from critics who say they overshot the season's actual severity again.

First, the season's stats: We saw 14 named storms - Andrea through Noel. There were eight tropical storms that got no stronger than that, and five others that became hurricanes: Dean, Felix, Humberto, Lorenzo and Noel. In addition, there was one sub-tropical storm in May that jumped the season's official start on June 1, and two tropical depressions that never got organized well enough to spin up and win a name.

Of the five hurricanes that did form, two became "major" storms of Category 3 or higher. Those were whoppers. Hurricanes Dean in August, and Felix in early September, both reached Cat. 5 status and made landfall with winds over 160 mph. Dean was the 9th most intense Atlantic storm on record, and the third-most intense at landfall. It was only the second time since 1961 that more than one Cat. 5 storm formed in one season. The last time was in 2005, when four storms got that powerful, including Katrina. 

Dean and Felix killed at least 175 people and caused billions of dollars in damage. Had they not struck sparsely populated regions of Mexico, Nicaragua and Honduras they surely would have done far more damage.

But after that, the season was remarkably tame. Hurricanes Humberto, Lorenzo and Noel never strengthened beyond Cat. 1. Even so, Noel killed more than 150 people due to flooding and mudslides on Hispaniola early this month before prowling up the Florida coast, kicking up the surf. But he never made landfall.

So how did the forecasters do?

The NOAA forecasters last May predicted the 2007 season would generate 13 to 17 named storms before scaling that back slightly in August. Not bad. But they said 7 to 10 would become hurricanes, and 3 to 5 of those would reach Cat. 3, overshooting the actual experience (5 and 2) on both counts.

The famed team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray at Colorado State University predicted in April the season would produce 17 named storms, including 9 hurricanes, of which 5 would reach Cat. 3. So they overshot the mark, too. They, too, were compelled to scale back their forecast as the season wore on.

Both groups had predicted an "active" season compared with the long-term averages. As it turned out, 2007 (at 14 names storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 Cat. 3 storms) was very close to an average season (11, 6 and 2).

That should come as a relief. But clearly we have a lot to learn about hurricane forecasting. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Now here's a story I wish somebody had tipped me off to. Early this month, the AAI Corporation, of Hunt Valley, a leader in the development of unmanned aircraft, flew an unmanned airplane into the core of Hurricane Noel as it blew up the East Coast. It was the first time anyone had successfully flown a craft like this into a hurricane. And nobody tipped off the newspaper.

The "Aerosonde" unmanned aerial system (UAS) - a small, lightweight, propeller-driven "pusher"-type craft carrying weather instruments and communications gear, has a 9.5-foot wingspan. It was launched on Friday Nov. 2 from the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, on Virginia's Eastern Shore. It flew as far as 500 miles from Wallops, and straight through the center of the storm at altitudes between 300 and 500 feet according to a NASA release. It zipped around out there for 7 1/2 hours in 80 mph winds, skimming just 300 to 500 feet above the waves. And there were some formidible waves out there, as surfers all along the coast found out.

AAI controlled the flight from Wallops, and relayed the data back to the National Hurricane Center in Miami to aid their forecasting.  It's valuable data from where the sea meets the atmosphere. It apparently tells forecasters a lot about what's going on in a hurricane. And it's data that manned aircraft will never be able to recover. It's just too dangerous to fly that low in a hurricane. Drop-sondes - the instrument packages the Hurricane Hunters drop into the storms from higher altitudes are useful, but having a little instrumented airplane you can send anywhere you need it without risking a human life will be a boon to forecasters.

Here's the NASA release on the flight. Here's AAI's version. And here's a nifty video.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Hurricane Noel is about to become a powerful extratropical storm, losing its tropical engine but remaining a ferocious Atlantic storm with top winds of 80 mph. It is already battering the Atlantic coast, and threatens Cape Cod, and the rest of coastal New England this weekend, and is fated to go ashore in the Canadian maritime provinces. We'll see this one on the news.

Here's a link showing all the ships at sea, and which are in the storm's path. Click to zoom in and see the ships' names.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the satellite view. And here is the forecast for Halifax, Nova Scotia. Batten the hatches.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Tropical Storm Noel now has sustained winds of just below hurricane strength as it turns north northeast, crosses the western corner of the fabled Bermuda Triangle and heads for the Canadian Maritime provinces. Here's the latest advisory.

Tropical storm warnings for southeast Florida have been dropped, but a hurricane watch is posted now for the northwest islands of the Bahamas, with watches elsewhere in the islands. And gale warnings are up for Bermuda. Not a good time to be cruising to Bermuda, folks. But the surf will be up along the Atlantic beaches, including Ocean City this weekend. That's Jupiter Inlet, Fla. in the photo above. Florida beaches are taking a pounding and beach erosion has become a big concern. Beachside structures are threatened along 400 miles of coastline.

The storm is expected to merge with the prevailing weather systems now dominating the North Atlantic, thus becoming "extratropical." But that only turns it into a kind of nor'easter, still a powerful storm at sea and nothing to be trifled with.

Here's the satellite loop.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Tropical Storm Noel is pulling away from the north coast of Cuba after pummeling the Greater Antilles with high winds, heavy rain, deadly flooding and landslides. It appears to be strengthening as it gets away from the mountainous islands, and Florida's Gold Coast has been warned to expect high winds as Noel begins to skirt the shoreline.

UPDATE: A tropical storm watch has been issued this afternoon for Florida's southeast coast.

EARLIER: It does NOT appear that the storm will go ashore anywhere on the U.S. mainland. But as it turns northward, it will likely affect the coast with heavy surf and winds. Florida is already under high wind advisories or gale warnings, and those could be boosted to tropical storm warnings if the storm gets stronger and moves close enough to the Atlantic beaches.

Here is the latest advisory. Here's the predicted storm track. And here's the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The National Hurricane Center is watching a new tropical storm - Noel (pronounced "nol" and rhymes with "knoll") - which formed this weekend in the Carribean and is currently a threat to Haiti and Cuba. Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from orbit.

Here's the forecast discussion. It does not look like this one will become a problem for the U.S. East Coast, except perhaps as a source of heavy surf.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The final two months of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," according to forecasters at Colorado State University. October and November should produce four more named storms, hurricane experts Phil Klotzbach and William Gray said today. Two of those will reach hurricane strength, and one will be at least a Cat. 3 storm with top sustained winds above 111 mph, they said.

As if on cue, the National Hurricane Center today began tracking a new tropical depression - TD 15 - far out in the Atlantic east of Bermuda. It's no threat to land.

Here's the full report. Click on the first item under "News" in the upper lefthand corner. Here's the updated National Hurricane Center's forecast, issued in early August.

The CSU forecast is a tad milder than the team had forecast earlier for October/November. They had predicted five named storms during the two-month period.

For the full season, the group had said on Sept. 4 that 2007 would end with a total of 15 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes, and four reaching Cat. 3 or higher.

So far, the actual totals are 13 names storms, with four hurricanes, of which two have reached Cat. 3 or more. So they're close to the mark in the named-storms category, but look like they're falling short of their hurricane predictions by almost half.

Everybody in the hurricane game predicted an "active" season this year, pointing to a continuation of a decades-long peak in storm activity, based on warmer sea-surface temperatures and favorable atmospheric pressure and wind patterns.

And it has been fairly busy. August ended with about 130 percent of the long-term average tropical activity. September ended at 92 percent, a bit below the long-term averages, Klotzbach and Gray said.

September did produce eight named storms, tying the September record. But most were short-lived and weak, such as Gabrielle, picture above in the Atlantic on Sept. 5. 

In the coming weeks, however, Klotzbach and Gray expect more favorable conditions and an extended hurricane season, thanks to the influence of a La Nina phase in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

So far, TD 15 is the only storm being watched out there. Elsewhere, all is quiet. Officially, the season ends Dec. 1.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

(Briefly) Hurricane Lorenzo has gone ashore in Mexico and has weakened to a tropical depression again after only a few hours at hurricane strength. Tropical Storm Karen, far out in the Atlantic, is also weakening. But hurricane forecasters say yet another area of stormy weather in the far eastern Atlantic has reached tropical depression status, with prospects for becoming the next named storm of the season.

Here is the latest advisory on Lorenzo, now delivering way too much rain in central Mexico. Here is the forecast track and the view from space. And here's some news from CNN on the storm.

Here is the latest on Karen, the forecast track and the view from orbit.

And here is the latest on brand-new Tropical Depression 14, which is expected to encounter cooler water and more wind shear in the coming days, which may weaken it. Here's the view from orbit. Next name on the list: Melissa.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

What had been Tropical Depression 13, spinning for days in the Gulf of Mexico off the Mexican coast and going nowhere, has finally gained enough strength to become the 12th named storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical Storm Lorenzo is finally moving toward the coast with sustained winds of 70 mph, and higher gusts. It is expected to enter the state of Veracruz early Friday as a minimal hurricane.

UPDATE: 8:10 p.m.:  Lorenzo is now a hurricane, with top sustained winds near 75 mph.

Here's the latest advisory. Here's the forecast storm track, and the view from orbit.

Meanwhile, far at sea, Tropical Storm Karen is weakening, raked by shearing winds from the southwest. Here's the latest advisory, the forecast track (which looks like it may turn more to the west, and Bermuda, in the next few days) and the view from space.  The shear is very visible on the loop. Forecasters say some re-strengthening is possible in a few days as the shear weakens.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The National Hurricane Center is tracking yet another tropical weather system. Tropical Depression 13 has formed in the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The gathering storm is stuck in a region with little wind to steer it, so it is likely to continue to gather strength over very warm water. It  could become a hurricane, and a threat to central Mexico, in as little as three days, according to at least one computer model.

Here is the latest advisory on TD 13. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Meanwhile, forecasters have issued their final advisory on what was Tropical Storm Jerry, now absorbed by other weather systems in the mid-Atlantic. But they're still watching Tropical Storm Karen, also spinning far out in the Atlantic and not a threat to land.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Tropical Storm Karen, the 11th named storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, came to life overnight in the central Atlantic Ocean. It does not appear to be any immediate threat to land and its forecast track would seem to keep it at sea.

Here's the latest advisory. Here's the forecast track and here's a view from space. (Karen is at lower right.)

The other stormy area forecasters were watching yesterday has not gotten any better organized, and poses only a rain threat to the Leeward Islands. Here's how the storm's water vapor looks from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Tropical storm Jerry, which never threatened anyone except shipping and fish, is fading in the mid-Atlantic. But hurricane forecasters are watching two more storms in the tropical Atlantic, including one that forecasters say looks like the "classic Cape Verdean" storm that can sometimes threaten the U.S. East Coast.

Here's the latest advisory on Jerry, which has been downgraded to a tropical depression. Here's his position. And here's the view from orbit.

Here's a broad view of the Atlantic. There are two storms of interest out there - one nearing the Windward Islands. The other - the one that has impressed forecasters - is on the lower right-hand side of the image. Here's another satellite view.

And here's what the tropical discussion had to say about that Cape Verdean storm:

"A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 565 NM SW OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 8.5N31W. THIS LARGE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10-15 KT. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW MOSTLY W OF
THE CENTER FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 29W-38W.
THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE CLASSIC LOOKING CAPE VERDE SYSTEMS WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS."

Next names on the list: Karen and Lorenzo

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The National Hurricane Center is reporting that the storm that has been drifting from the Atlantic east of north central Florida, across the peninsula into the Gulf for the last couple of days, has finally strengthen to tropical depression status. It was named Tropical Depression Ten this morning, and could continue to strengthen and become the 10th named tropical storm of the Atlantic season. That would be TS Jerry.

Storm warnings and coastal flood warnings have been issued for parts of the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to Louisiana, including New Orleans. Here is the latest advisory. Here's the forecast storm track. And here's the view from space.

Here's AccuWeather's take.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:33 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

It doesn't show much sign of developing into a tropical storm, although that remains a possibility. But the storm brewing over the Atlantic just east of the Florida peninsula is expected to drift westward, bringing heavy rains to the north-central part of the state before it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Doesn't look like this will benefit us anytime soon. But AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi is looking for it to strengthen in the Gulf and threaten La. and Tex. Here's Joe on video.

Here's the satellite image. And here's the discussion from the National Hurricane Center:

"A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE SLOWLY FALLING AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTION
OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM
THE SE US SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS ROTATING CYCLONICALLY MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA EAST COAST."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
                    

Super typhoon Wipha is passing Taiwan and closing in on the southeast Chinese coast, headed for landfall somewhere on the heavily populated coast between Taiwan and Shanghai. Here's the latest image from NASA's Earth Observing Aqua satellite.

Here's an UPDATE.

This is a powerful, Cat. 4 storm, with gusts to 165 mph and a storm surge of 18 feet. And an estimated 1.8 million Chinese are being evacuated from vulnerable areas. Here's the storm track. Looks like North Korea, too, could feel Wipha's effects. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

What was once Tropical Storm Ingrid has melted away into a cloudy mess in the western Atlantic just east of the Leeward Islands. The ninth named storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season was sliced and diced by wind shear and never got close to becoming a hurricane. The National Weather Service has now issued its final advisory on Ingrid's sad and inconsequential existence.

Here is the final storm track, showing what is now a tropical depression east of the islands of St. Kitts and Nevis, and the French island of Guadeloupe. Here's the satellite loop.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)