Remember Irene? NASA video shows life of the hurricane
Video from NASA's GOES-13 satellite covers the storm between Aug. 20-28.
December 1, 2011
October 24, 2011
New storm could become hurricane for the Yucatan
The National Hurricane Center is watching Tropical Storm Rina, the 17th named storm of the 2011 Atlantic season, as it strengthens and moves toward Mexico's Yucatan peninsula.
Rina became a tropical storm Sunday night. At last check it was 190 miles southwest of Grand Cayman Island, and 370 miles east-southeast of Chetumal, Mexico. Top sustained winds were blowing at 45 mph, and the storm was moving at 6 mph to the northwest.
Rina was forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night, only the fifth hurricane of the season. Interests in Belize and on the Yucatan were advised to monitor the storm.
UPDATE, 2:14 p.m.: Rina is now a hurricane, and is expected to become a Cat. 3 "major" hurricane by late Tuesday. Earlier post resumes below:
Forecasters were predicting 1 to 3 inches of rain on the northeast coast of Honduras, and 2 to 4 inches in the Cayman Islands.
Most forecast storm tracks keep the storm in the northwest Caribbean through the rest of the week. Here is the latest advisory on Rina. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the latest forecast discussion.
Only four storm names remain on the 2011 list: Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney.
October 23, 2011
Busy storm season, but just five hurricanes
FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season is quieter now as we near the end of October. There have been 16 named storms, from Tropical Storm Arlene through Hurricane Philippe. That’s well above the 9.6 seasonal average, and just what Colorado State University forecasters predicted. We’re short on hurricanes, however – just five — a bit below average and well below the 6 to 10 predicted by forecast teams. Irene and Lee caused quite enough excitement here, thanks. The season ends officially Nov. 30.
(SUN PHOTO: Irene hits Ocean City, Karl Merton Ferron)
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Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes
Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes
October 5, 2011
Former Hurricane Ophelia due in Britain today
FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:
Today looks like another stormy one for the United Kingdom, made even more so by what’s left of the former Cat. 4 Hurricane Ophelia. After spinning up to 140 mph east of Bermuda on Saturday, Ophelia weakened to tropical storm strength, passed over George Calvert’s former plantation on the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Monday, and headed east. It is expected to bring rain, wind, mild tropical air and 25-foot seas today to northern Ireland and western Scotland.
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Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes
Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes
September 30, 2011
Ophelia reaches Cat. 3, Bermuda on watch
Hurricane Ophelia has become the third "major" hurricane of the Atlantic season, a Cat. 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale with top 
sustained winds of 115 mph. The storm was located about 620 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, moving to the north-northwest at 12 mph.
There's a Tropical Storm Watch in effect on the island. Fortunately, the forecast storm track would carry it about 100 miles to the east, of the island, putting Bermuda on the more benign west side of the circulation. The storm is expected to fluctuate in strength in the next 24 hours before weakening.
Bermuda's residents have been told to expect tropical-storm-force winds by Saturday afternoon, with hazardous surf on the south beaches. Rainfall could reach an inch.
Here is the latest advisory on Ophelia. Here is the forecast discussion. And here is the forecast storm track.
September 29, 2011
Ophelia is now a hurricane, but no threat here
Tropical Storm Ophelia is now Hurricane Ophelia, only the fourth hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season. The storm is no threat to the U.S. coast. It was centered northeast of Puerto Rico, moving north-northwest in the Atlantic at 9 mph, on a course that would take it close to the island of Bermuda late Saturday.
Top sustained winds are blowing at 75 mph, just above minimal hurricane force, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Here is the latest advisory for Ophelia. Here is the forecast discussion. Here is the forecast storm track.
September 27, 2011
Remnants of Ophelia perking up in Atlantic
The disorganized remnants of Tropical Storm Ophelia appear to be perking up and getting better organized as they near the northern Leeward Islands. Forecasters in Miami are giving the storm an 80 percent chance of regaining tropical storm strength in the next two days.
The showers and thunderstorms were located a few hundred miles east northeast of the Northern Leewards. Locally heavy rains were forecast for the islands through Wednesday. Computer models all seem to steer whatever Ophelia becomes to the north, where it will be a threat only to Bermuda and ships at sea.
September 26, 2011
Tropics still active, but no threat here
Forecasters predicted a busy season in the tropical Atlantic this year, and they were right. But neither of the current hot spots seems to pose a threat to the U.S. mainland.
We've reached the letter "P" now, with Tropical Storm Phillipe spinning in the eastern Atlantic, about 680 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm has developed top sustained winds of 60 mph, and it's moving northwest at 12 mph. On that course the storm will not become any sort of threat to the Americas.
The other disturbance hurricane forecasters are watching is an area of showers and thunderstorms 
a few hundred miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. It's actually what's left of Tropical Storm Ophelia, which developed last week and faded over the weekend. Strong wind shear is preventing more development, forecasters say. The system is moving west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, with just a 20 percent chance of regaining tropical storm strength in the next two days.
Curiously, on the other side of the continent, the
remnants of Typhoon Roke, which was born in the western Pacific, pounded Japan last week and later crossed the International Date Line, is now battering the Northwest Coast of Canada and the United States.
The fierce autumn storm is bringing high winds - gusts to 105 mph - and as much as 8 inches of rain to the Vancouver and Queen Charlotte Islands of British Columbia. Gales are also blowing on the coast of southern Alaska, Washington and Oregon.
September 20, 2011
Next storm now organizing in the Atlantic
A big tropical low is getting better organized in the central Atlantic Ocean, and forecasters are giving it a 70 percent chance of becoming the next named storm of the 2011 Atlantic season, sometime in the next 48 hours.
The storm is already kicking up thunderstorms and looks pretty healthy from orbit. Forecasters say conditions in the region are favorable for continued development. If it does reach tropical storm strength, it would become Tropical Storm Ophelia, the 14th named storm of the season.
The count is now approaching the lower end of pre-season forecasts for the number of named storms this season, which ranged from 13 to 16. But hurricane counts remain low. Only three storms have made it to hurricane strength - Irene, Katia and Maria. The major forecasters have predicted at least 6 to 9 hurricanes this season.
Only two of this year's hurricanes reached "major" Cat. 3 strength or higher. Irene was a Cat. 3 storm at sea, but weakened to Cat. 1 at landfall in North Carolina. Katia was a Cat. 4 at sea, but never made landfall until it reached the United Kingdom. Maria was a tropical storm for most of its life, reaching Cat. 1 strength over the open Atlantic, with no U.S. landfall.
Forecasters had predicted at least 3 to 5 of this year's storms would reach Cat. 3 or higher.
The season ends officially on Nov. 30.
September 18, 2011
Isabel struck eight years ago today
FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:
Today marks the eighth anniversary of Isabel’s 2003 landfall near Morehead City, N.C. It was a Cat. 2 hurricane at landfall, and weakened as it drove inland toward Western Maryland.
The 2.13 inches of rain on the 18th set a new daily record for BWI. But it was wind on the storm’s east side that drove a destructive, 8.5-foot storm surge into the Upper Chesapeake, breaking records set during the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane in 1933, and flooding Baltimore and Arundel shorelines.
(SUN PHOTO: Riviera Beach. David Hobby, 2003)
September 13, 2011
Tropical Storm Maria will stay at sea
Hurricane forecasters are predicting that Tropical Storm Maria will turn to the north, then northeast while still well out to sea. The storm is expected to pass just west of Bermuda on Thursday.
This morning, the storm was located about 300 miles east of the southeastern Bahamas, moving to the north northwest at 6 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch was posted for Bermuda.
Puerto Rico was expecting total rains of 4 to 8 inches from Maria, with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 inches at higher elevations. Life-threatening mudslides and flash floods were possible.
The storm's top sustained winds were blowing at about 50 mph. Some modest strengthening is possible in the next day or two. But southwesterly shear has been limiting development. And now the southwesterly winds out ahead of the front moving off East Coast are expected to turn the storm and accelerate its movement to the north and northeast. It is likely to lose its tropical characteristics by the weekend.
In the meantime, at the Maryland beaches, the weather service is warning of a moderate risk of rip currents. Swimmers and surfers should continue to monitor advisories as the storm moves north this week.
Here is the latest advisory for Maria. Here is the forecast discussion. And here is the forecast storm track.
September 10, 2011
Where's the missing tropical storm?
FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:
Don Dobrow, in Baltimore, wonders why Tropical Storm Maria was described as being the 14th storm of the season: “M is the 13th letter of the alphabet.”
It is. But what the National Hurricane Center is counting are “tropical depressions” — areas of heavy rain, with winds below 39 mph. Until they organize enough to push top winds to 39 mph, they aren’t officially “tropical storms,” and don’t get a name.
Tropical Depression 10 last month (map, left)never topped 35 mph before expiring on Aug. 27.
(IMAGE: National Hurricane Center)
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Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes, Sky Notes
Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes, Sky Notes
September 7, 2011
More action in the tropics
As if we didn'ty have enough to contend with after Irene, and with more rain and flooding from what remains of Lee, the tropical Atlantic continues to gin up more storms.
Hurricane Katia continues to spin its way across the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Maria formed east of 
the Antilles just this (Wednesday) morning, and another tropical wave seems likely to become a problem in the Gulf of Mexico (or possibly a desperately-needed rain-maker for Texas).
Katia was reported about 320 miles southwest of Bermuda, with top sustained winds of 85 mph. It was moving to the northwest at 10 mph. Hurricane forecastyers said they expected the storm would curve to the north and later tothe north-northeast by late Thursday. That would take Katia between the Carolina coast and Bermuda by Thiursday without a landfall at either place.
It is already affecting the beaches, however, with dangerous surf and riptides. High Riptide Risk notices are posted from Duck, N.C. to the Maryland/Delaware border. Waves are forecast to reach 4 to 6 feet today.
Here is the latest advisory for Katia. Here is the forecast discussion. Here is the forecast storm
track.
Tropical Storm Maria formed this morning about 1,300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It was packing sustained winds of 50 mph, moving to the west at a brisk 23 mph. Forecasters said some stregnthening is expected in the next two days. The forecast storm track looks much like Irene's for the moment.
Here is the latest advisory on Maria. Here is the forecast discussion. And here is the forecast storm track.
Finally, forecasters are watching the next potential tropical storm, now located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It is given a 60 percent chance of reaching tropical storm strength in the next 48 hours, and earning the name Nate. It's close enough to the Texas coast to raise hopes that it might throw some badly needed rain toward the Lone Star State, which is suffering through an historic drought and terrible wildfires.
September 2, 2011
Big, wet Gulf storm unlucky for all
Tropical Depression 13 continues to linger off the northern Gulf Coast Friday, with modest winds but formidible rains for the region, and for wherever the storm decides to go next week.
Forecaster expect TD13 to reach tropical storm strength later today, becoming Tropical Storm Lee. 
For now, it is centered roughly 210 miles southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving north at 1 mph. Actually, forecasters can't be certain precisely where the storm is centered, where it's headed or how fast it's moving. That's because its center is hard to find, and its movement is both slight and erratic.
UPDATE, 1:45 p.m.: TD13 is now Tropical Storm Lee, with top sustained winds of 40 mph. Forecasters have not ruled out the possibility that Lee will reach hurricane strength. Earlier post resumes below.
The offshore oil rigs are reporting tropical storm winds north and east of the storm's center, forecasters said. And rain bands are now soaking coastal Louisiana.
What they do know is that it is packing a lot of rain, and is likely to strengthen. There is a Tropical Storm Warning in effect from Pascagoula, Miss. west to Sabine Pass, Texas, including the low-lying city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain. And the warnings predict 10 to 15 inches of rain, with the potential for as much as 20 inches through Sunday before this dawdling rain maker finally leaves.
UPDATE, 12:30 p.m.: Just got off a teleconference call with Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center. There was some discussion of whether the New Orleans-area pumps will be able to keep up with the heavy rains that are forecast with this storm. We may be seeing footage of water rising in the streets in that city before TD13 is through.
What really caught my attention were his comments on what happens down the road, when the tropical rains move north and east: "When the storm moves out," he said, "it will bring heavy rain northward into the Appalachians." He pointed to scenes we've seen this week out of Vermont, and said they may be repeated in the Southern Appalachians. "Unfortunately ... that's the kind of terrain where flash flooding is fast and it's violent. The exact timing and locations [of such events] are yet to be seen."
At least TD13 (or Lee) will be "gone before Katia's even in the picture," he said.
The forecast models are still a mess. But the consensus seems to be that TD13 will approach the coast of southern Louisiana this weekend, then turn gradually toward the northeast.
NWS forecasters in Sterling, Va. are anticipating that "a plume of tropical moisture from what should be named Lee will stream across the mid-Atlantic from the middle of next week into the weekend. This, along with an onshore flow, could create a significant rainfall event for the region."
Irene never made landfall in Maryland
FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:
The National Hurricane Center says Irene never made landfall in Maryland. “Landfall” occurs when the storm’s center crosses the coastline. Irene had three in the U.S.– in North Carolina, New Jersey and New York. But its center passed 10 miles off Ocean City’s beaches.
NHC’s Dennis Feltgen says only two hurricanes have made landfall here since 1851 – a Cat. 2 storm in 1878, and a Cat. 1 in 1893. But others, including Hazel in 1954, have arrived by land with hurricane winds.
(NASA PHOTO: Irene at the North Carolina coast)
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Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes
Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes
September 1, 2011
Plenty of uncertainty about Katia, Gulf storm
There's plenty of activity in the tropics this morning, but also plenty of uncertainty about where these two storms might pose a threat.
The most immediate concern is with the thunderstorms and gusty winds in the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are giving it a "high chance" - 70 percent - of becoming a tropical storm (Lee) during the next 48 hours. They say conditions in the region are forecast to become more favorable for development in a few days.
UPDATE, 2:15 p.m.: The hurricane center has boosted the storm's chances of becoming Tropical Storm Lee in the next 48 hours Lee to 80 percent.
Meteorologists at AccuWeather.com say there's plenty to worry about:
"[T]his will be an extensive, slow-moving system, capable of affecting the same areas for days with downpours, stormy seas and rough surf conditions. Rough seas alone have potential to shut down [oil] rigs in the Gulf for an extended period.
"From 10 to 20 inches of rain may fall on part of the north-central Gulf Coast beginning late this week and continuing into next week, and could in itself result in disastrous flooding."
For now, this would-be Lee is drifting slowly to the northwest. But the forecast models are still having trouble dealing with the light steering winds in the Gulf. Their forecast tracks make no sense at all.
Meanwhile, far out in the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Katia graduated to hurricane overnight. The Cat. 1 storm is sporting top sustained windsof 75 mph. It was located 1,065 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving to the west at 20 mph.
Forecasters expect a slow turn more to the west-northwest and some slowing in the next few days. Some additional strengthening is forecast, too, and some models predict Katia will reach Cat. 3 (sustained winds of 111 mph) by the weekend.
The track models look much more together than those for the Gulf Storm. Most continue to take Katia generally to the west-northwest, in a line that, if unchanged, would bring the storm to the southeastern U.S. coast late next week.
But forecasters, and some models, put a curve in Katia's path as it encounters the cold front coming off the eastern U.S. They would curve the track to the northwest, north and later to the northeast before Katia gets close to the coast. That could put Bermuda in harm's way.
The bottom line on Katia is that it's too soon to tell whether she will become a threat here, or merely good news for surfers.
Here's the latest advisory on Katia. Here's the forecast discussion. And here's the forecast track.
August 30, 2011
Irene killed 30,000 Maryland chickens
Maryland Agriculture Secretary Earl "Buddy" Hance has released a preliminary accounting of agricultural losses from Hurricane Irene. The casualties include 30,000 chickens. Here's Hance:
"High winds and excessive rain caused loss of power, flooding, and tree and limb damage across most of the state. Southern Maryland and the Lower Eastern Shore, however, sustained most of the damage, primarily on drought-stricken corn fields where wind flattened the crop in many places, making it difficult to harvest. The remaining sweet corn was severely blown over and may not be recoverable, but we believe this will impact a small amount as most has been harvested.
"Overall Maryland livestock fared well with no significant loss. For the poultry industry, the Harim Group reported that the storm killed about 30,000 birds in Maryland. There were no other reports of bird loss or significant structural damage.
"Soybeans fared well and the moisture will help the crop. About 100 acres of watermelon were destroyed and another 100 acres sustained damage severe enough to be reported as a loss. About 600 acres of string beans may be unharvestable. There was no impact from the storm west of Frederick.
"The Farm Service Agency will further assess damages to agriculture – crops, livestock, conservation – and we should have a better indication of those estimates later this week. Farmers who experienced hurricane damage are reminded to stay in close contact with their crop insurance agents."
(SUN PHOTO: Doug Kapustin, 2007)
Tropical Storm Katia likely to be hurricane in days
Tropical Depression 12, as forecast, became Tropical Storm Katia overnight. And forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say she will reach hurricane force by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Looking farther down the road, forecast models have Katia reaching Cat. 3 ("major") hurricane strength by the weekend.
For now, Katia poses no threat to land. At 11 a.m. the NHC put the storm 630 miles west southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off West Africa. The highest sustained winds were 45 mph, with more strengthening expected as the storm gets better organized.
Katia was moving to the west northwest at 18 mph, a course that was expected to continue for at least 48 more hours.
Forecast models show the storm eventually approaching the Bahamas. One then curves it to the north before reaching the East Coast of the U.S.
Here is the latest advisory for Katia. Here is the forecast discussion. And here are the forecast tracks.
NOTE TO READERS: Thanks for reading the Maryland Weather Blog! We had 248,000 page views last week, second only to Raven Insider.
Hurricane Irene rain and wind maps for Maryland
Here are the wind and rain maps for Hurricane Irene, just released by the National Weather Service regional forecast office in Sterling, Va. Click to enlarge.
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Categories: By the numbers, Cool pictures, Hurricanes
Categories: By the numbers, Cool pictures, Hurricanes
Two-thirds of BGE's Irene outages repaired
I just took a look at the latest numbers from BGE on how the restoration of electric service is going. Looks like their own crews, contractors and mutual-aid crews from Midwest and Pa. utilities have restored service to about two-thirds of all the customers who lost power during Irene.
The utility reports on its website (at about 10:20 a.m.) that of the 743,000 outages they faced from the storm, about 
500,000 have been repaired. Some 243,000 customers were still waiting for their lights to come back on.
Hardest-hit were Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties. In Baltimore County, 234,278 customers lost their power at some point during the storm. That's 63 percent of the total that BGE serves there. In Anne Arundel, 176,045 customers lost their lights. That is 74 percent of the total. I'm not sure if the total double-counts those who lost their power more than once. But it gives you a sense of the scale of the damage.
Of course, if it's your power that's still out, that's still 100 percent of the outages that remain to be cleared up, and you're still looking for the first bucket truck to show up. Keep in mind that it only makes sense for the utility to first tackle the line breaks that affect the most customers. If your lights are out because a tree fell in your back yard, and your neighbors were unaffected, you will be waiting at the end of the line. That's only fair. Inconvenient to say the least. But fair.
The 743,000 total is close to 50 percent more outages than the company planned for, and equal to 58 percent of the entire system of 1.3 million customers. Company officials said before Irene struck that they were planning for up to 500,000 outages in the BGE service area, but were prepared to expand the response if needed. Turns out it was needed.
(SUN PHOTO: Jeffrey F. Bill)
August 29, 2011
Was Irene hyped? Fall short of its billing?
In the last two days I've heard some commentary about Hurricane Irene suggesting that it somehow fell short of expectations; that it was hyped by the news media beyond what was warranted.
So what's going on here? Are the news media at fault for printing (and broadcasting) strong warnings about the dangers posed by the storm? Are the hurricane forecasters at fault for getting something wrong in their forecasts? Did emergency managers overdo their warnings?
Do they all run a danger of somehow "disappointing" people in a way that will make them less responsive to future storm warnings?
Or is it a bigger hazard to life and property if we (forecasters and media) risk underplaying a storm's potential ? Wouldn't that, too, encourage more people to try to stay in place instead of preparing for the worst and getting out if instructed to ?
Finally, was this storm really a dud? It seems like millions of outages, trees down on cars and homes, schools closed, businesses shuttered, historic flooding in New England, estimated damages upwards of $10 billion, and 20 people dead could hardly be deemed anything but awful.
Your thoughts?
(PHOTO: Irene damage in Connecticut. Bertina Hansen, Hartford Courant)
Tropical Depression 12 forms in the Atlantic
A new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Forecasters expect it will become Tropical Storm Katia later today, and strengthening to hurricane force by Thursday as it steams to the west-northwest in the mid-Atlantic.
Tropical Depression 12, as it's being called for now, was located this morning about 395 miles south southwest of the Cape Verde Islands - off West Africa - putting it in a class of storms known as Cape Verdean Hurricanes. They are the ones that tend to pose the greatest threat to the East Coast as we move into the peak of the hurricane season. The map above shows where the various forecast models take it in the next few days.
Here's AccuWeather.com's Henry Margusity on the storm's prospects.
TD12 is moving south of a high-pressure ridge in the mid-Atlantic that will keep it from curving north for a while longer. Forecasters are saying that, while the ridge will weaken some in the coming days, it is expected to restrengthen, "which should result in a continued west-northwest motion..."
Here is the latest advisory on the storm. Here is the forecast discussion. And here is the forecast storm track.
Hurricane as economic stimulus?
FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:
Is there a good side to a storm like Irene? Peter Morici, a business professor at College Park, says yes: Pre-landfall estimates of the storm’s potential damage run to $30 billion. But reconstruction will yield “at least” $7 billion in new, direct private spending. Add higher values of rebuilt property, and other “multipliers,” and he figures there’s about $29 billion on the plus side. “The total effects of natural disasters on the scale of Irene are not large two years down the road,” he argues.
(PHOTO: AccuWeather.com)
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Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes
Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes
August 28, 2011
Irene's winds topped 70 mph on Western Shore
The National Weather Service's forecast office in Sterling, Va. has posted top wind gusts during Irene's passage across its coverage area west of the Chesapeake. Looks like Calvert County recorded some of the worst conditions on our side of the bay:
Top sustained winds: 56 mph, Calvert Cliffs.
Top wind gusts: 73 mph, Cobb Island buoy; 72 mph, Calvert Cliffs, Chesapeake Beach, Gaithersburg
Top rain total: 12.96 inches, West Plum Point, Calvert County; 12 inches, Perry Hall
OTHER WIND DATA: SUSTAINED WINDS
Point Lookout: 43 mph
Middle River: 42 mph
Solomons: 41 mph
GUSTS:
Bay Ridge: 69 mph
Highland Beach: 68 mph
Solomons: 68 mph
Patuxent River: 64 mph
North Beach: 64 mph
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Categories: By the numbers, Hurricanes
Categories: By the numbers, Hurricanes
NWS: Maybe no landfall in Md. for Irene
Well, it sure felt like a hurricane struck Maryland last night, but Steve Zubrick, science officer at the National Weather Service's regional forecast office in Sterling, Va. says maybe not, officially.
I asked him whether Irene's visit in Maryland last night qualified as a hurricane landfall in the state. That would be huge news, because the National Hurricane Center currently recognizes just one - in all the time they've been keeping records - as a Maryland landfall. (We're checking to verify which one that was.)
Here's what Steve said:
"We'll have to check on the historic record of landfalls in Maryland. However, preliminary thinking is that Irene's center did not make landfall in MD.
"The definition says that the center of circulation (eye) of the system has to cross the coastline...and preliminary indications are that the center of Irene stayed offshore of MD.
"Later assessments might change that view, but for now, be aware that the NWS has not recognized landfall of Irene in MD, even though there were certainly impacts (see our latest Public Info Statement product for details).
"The NWS so far is recognizing [two] landfalls for Irene, one in North Caroline near Cape Lookout on Sat. morning; the other at Little Egg ... Inlet in NJ earlier today (Sunday)."
Worst of Irene's winds may hit Mt. Washington (NH)
Weather observers on top of Mt. Washington (in New Hampshire), say they're already seeing the effects of Tropical Storm Irene. But the strongest winds are not expected until tonight. Their forecast calls for winds to gust tonight to more than 100 mph, and perhaps as high as 130.
Here's their report:
"Hurricane Irene will make its way northward into New England today, producing torrential rains and very windy conditions atop the higher summits. Irene will make landfall along the Connecticut coastline this morning, but will spread bands of heavy rainfall well in advance of its center. The periods of rain will become progressively heavier as the day wears on and Irene's eye comes extremely close to a direct pass over the White Mountains.
"Intense thunderstorms are often imbedded within the structure of a tropical cyclone, so rumbles of thunder and dangerous lightning are not out of the question as well. Wind speeds will pick up quickly through the day, gusting near hurricane force by afternoon. Winds are predicted to drop off around dusk as Irene's calm eye perhaps makes its way overhead.
"However, as Irene passes north of the region and begins to transition to an extratropical storm, winds will pick up tremendously, gusting well in excess of 100 mph--perhaps as high as 130 mph--in the wee hours of Monday. Temperatures will take a nose dive as well as the winds sharply shift towards the west and pull in chillier air, with overnight lows dipping into the upper 30s. Rain will taper to showers by daybreak, and come to an end early tomorrow, with the summits emerging from the fog tomorrow to reveal mostly sunny skies.
"Irene's fury will be in full force today, dumping as much as 6-8" of rain atop the higher summits. Tropical cyclones generally do not generate particularly significant wind events on Mt. Washington. However, Irene will be in the unique state of transition between tropical and extratropical system as it passes over and to the north. Should this transition occur quick enough, wind speeds will be on the higher end of the forecasted numbers, perhaps even a bit higher, as a tremendous pressure gradient forms. However, a slower or later transition will translate to less formidable wind speeds tonight. Nevertheless, at minimum, overnight winds will regularly gust in excess of 100 mph. However, the potential is there for a much more significant wind event."
(PHOTO: Mt. Washington Observatory, August 2011)
Irene downgraded to a tropical storm
Hurricane Irene, the first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season, the first "major" (Cat.3 or higher) storm of the season, and the first to make landfall on the U.S. mainland since 2008, has been downgraded to a tropical storm.
The National Hurricane Center said at 11 a.m. that Irene's top sustained winds have fallen to 60 mph. The center was located 10 miles west of Danbury, Conn., moving to the north northeast at 26 mph. Irene was headed for northern New England later today, and then on to Quebec and Labrador.
All warnings have been canceled for the Chesapeake Bay, and the Hurricane Warnings on the coast have been downgraded to Tropical Storm Warnings.
NWS: Storm surge no longer a worry
Now that Irene has gone by us, and winds have swung around to the west northwest, the danger of damaging storm surge from Hurricane Irene - to the extent it ever was a real worry - is past, according to the National Weather Service.
"I would venture to say, yeah, for Baltimore Harbor and the Western Shore ... [storm surge] will not be too much of an issue now," said meteorologist Kevin Witt, at the weather service's regional forecast office in Sterling, Va.
Although city officials and many regular folks worried that Hurricane Irene might deliver the kind of destructive, 8 or 9-foot storm in the Upper Chesapeake we all remember from Tropical Storm Isabel in 2003, a big surge was never in the forecasts for this region. Unless your property is vulnerable to flooding caused by rain, most of the sandbags deployed Saturday probably were wasted.
That's because Irene tracked well east of the bay. That meant the wind out of the south, on the cyclone's east side, was blowing over the ocean, not up the bay. Isabel, by contrast, passed to the west of the bay, putting the south winds directly onto the Chesapeake, driving water north and into the bay's creeks and rivers.
Witt said there does remain some risk of high water today on the Eastern Shore of the bay, as the west or northwest winds at 30 to 35 mph slosh water toward the east.
So rather than a storm tide, Witt said, "we're looking at more of a blowout tide," where west northwest winds blow water out of the bay, producing stunted high tides and unusually low low tides. You can see the wind effects on the tide chart, above, for Annapolis. The Saturday morning high tide was more than a foot below predictions.
The prospect is much the same for the ocean beaches, where west northwest winds will begin to calm the waters. "Later this afternoon, east coast tides and waves will be coming down," Witt said.
New tropical storm forms; Jose poses no risk here
There's a new tropical storm on the maps. Fortunately, Tropical Storm Jose is well out in the Atlantic, and he's headed north. This is likely a "fish storm." Winds from Hurricane Irene are creating wind shear that will probably do Jose in within 36 hours, forecasters say.
At 8 a.m., Jose was located 115 miles southsouthwest of Bermuda. It has top sustained winds of 40 mph, and it's moving to the north at 16 mph. The Bermuda Weather Service has posted a Tropical Storm Warning for the island. They're expecting tropical storm winds and rain totals of 1 to 3 inches.
Here is the latest advisory on Jose. Here is the forecast discussion. And here is the forecast storm track.
a href="http://weblogs.marylandweather.com/1314533643.html" onclick="window.open('http://weblogs.marylandweather.com/1314533643.html','popup','width=565,height=460,scrollbars=no,resizable=no,toolbar=no,directories=no,location=no,menubar=no,status=no,left=0,top=0'); return false">View imageLooking farther upstream, hurricane forecasters are watching another tropical wave that they're giving a 40 percent chance of becoming a named storm in the next 48 hours:
"SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.
"THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS."
More than 11" of rain in Southern Maryland
The first numbers are starting to come in for Hurricane Irene's impact on Maryland, and Southern Maryland seems to have been hit hardest on rainfall.
BWI-Marshall Airport is reporting 4.6 inches of rain at 7 a.m. The heaviest rates were between 1 and 2 a.m., when 2.14 inches fell. Top sustained wind velocity was 30 mph, with gusts to 51 mph. The low barometer reading was 29.02 inches at 3 a.m.
The instruments at Ocean City Municipal Airport stopped reporting at 9 p.m. Not sure why. But the town's Office of Emergency Management issued a release this morning noting a rain total of 12 inches. Top sustained winds overnight were blowing at 60 mph, with gusts to 80.
With daylight, Ocean City officials were assessing damage at the resport. For now, the access routes onto the island remain closed until the damage assessment is complete and unsafe conditions secured.
Hurricane Irene made its second landfall at 5:35 a.m. near Little Egg Inlet, N.J., according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Winds were clocked at 75 mph. The barometric pressure there was 28.36 inches.
Here is a tally of rain totals for Maryland west of the bay, from the NWS/Sterling.
Here are some statewide 24-hour rain totals for Maryland, from the CoCoRaHS Network:
Denton, Caroline: 11.55 inches
Leonardtown, St. Mary's County: 11.35 inches
Easton, Talbot: 11.34 inches
Hollywood, St. Mary's: 10.11 inches
Bishopville, Worcester: 7.71 inches
Elkton, Cecil: 7.10 inches
Waldorf, Charles: 6.55 inches
Hamilton, Baltimore City: 4.54 inches
Catonsville, Baltimore: 4.30 inches
Columbia, Howard: 3.61 inches
Taneytown, Carroll: 2.54 inches
Frederick, Frederick: 0.97 inch
Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:22 AM | Permalink
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Categories: By the numbers, Hurricanes
Categories: By the numbers, Hurricanes
Irene's aftermath: Be careful with candles, generators
FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:
With all the rain and wind and water around, it’s hard to think much about fire danger today. But the Maryland State Fire Marshall’s office is reminding us all to think hard about it.
Use flashlights, not candles. And if you must use candles, put them on stable furniture and in tip-proof holders. Keep them away from kids and pets and flammable materials.
Using a generator today? Let it cool before refueling, and don’t run it in the house or garage. Carbon monoxide kills.
(SUN PHOTO: Karl Merton Ferron, 2003)
August 27, 2011
Is this all there is?
Maybe it doesn't look so bad to you out there. Maybe you're ready to get out on the road and have a look around, or head for Gramma's house with the kids. Here's meteorologist Eric the Red's take on what's ahead for Maryland as the sun goes down and Irene heads our way:
"The rain and wind we are getting now are nothing compared to what is in store, so don't be lulled into thinking this is it.
"BTW, before I start, it appears that Irene is going to track right up over the coastline. This is a very bad 
trajectory for the beach towns of MD, DE, and NJ. The silver lining is Irene did not intensify before making landfall today.
"However, due to the storm's large size, lack of wind shear (winds aloft buffeting the storm), and a track that takes it in close proximity to water and over low-lying land masses, Irene will be slow to weaken. AllI can say is thank God this thing didn't deepen the way models had projected.
"The core of the winds and heavy rain will approach from the south this evening, reaching the Baltimore metro area between 7 and 10 pm. Winds will increase out of the northeast to 40 mph sustained, with higher gusts, and peak during the late-night and early morning hours... (~ 5 am).
"The center of Irene should be just north of Ocean City, MD by 5 am, sparing that town an untimely peak storm surge (with high tide ~ 7 am). Rain should cut off rather rapidly after 8 am on Sunday, but the winds will be much slower to diminish. While the intensity will be less, the winds will finally die down late Sunday afternoon.
"Rain will be heaviest on the Eastern Shore and the counties immediately adjacent to the Chesapeake Bay, where 4" to 8" of rain is likely, with 12" totals possible closer to Irene's center. Rain amounts will diminsh notably as you head west from Carroll into Frederick County, MD, but showers from Irene will reach well into WV and western MD nevertheless."
By the way, just got a call from BGE's Rob Gould. He says the utility at 6 p.m. had about 13,000 outages, mostly in the southern end of its territory, with 6,000 more already restored. But the night is young. "The storm has yet to really hit us," he said.
Great. Where's my flashlight?
Flood Warning issued for Lower Shore counties
Flood Warnings have been posted for the Lower Eastern Shore counties of Maryland, including Worcester, Wicomico, Somerset and Dorchester. The northern section of Accomack County on Virginia's Eastern Shore, is also included.
The warning means that flooding is imminent or already occurring. Heavy rainfall had already dumped 2 to 4 inches on the region. Another 5 to 8 inches on top of that is expected before Hurricane Irene departs on Sunday. The NWS says:
"EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.
"DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND."
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Categories: Hurricanes, Watches and warnings
Categories: Hurricanes, Watches and warnings
Irene's rain finally reaches downtown B'more
The rain has finally started in downtown Baltimore. There is a whopping 0.01 inch in the bucket at The Sun's weather station at Calvert and Centre streets at 12:40 p.m. Winds are averaging 7 mph, but our anemometer is pretty sheltered.
Before the storm slides off to the northeast tomorrow, we're expected to get between 5 and 6 inches here, with winds gusting as high as 49 mph. Wallops Island, Va. has already clocked in 5 inches of rain.
Anybody going to the State Fair?
City hurricane robocalls run all night
Feeling a little groggy this morning? Maybe you can blame it on one of Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake's Hurricane robocalls.
It seems the automated phone calls the city began making to several hundred thousand residents Friday afternoon were supposed to stop at 9 p.m. The mayor's recorded voice reminded constituents that Hurricane Irene was on the way, and urged them to stock up on food, water and 
emergency supplies in case of prolonged power outages.
It was a fine plan, until the computer server doing the work neglected to shut off at 9 p.m., as officials had directed. It apparently ran all night, until someone discovered the problem after 7 a.m. Saturday, and pulled the plug.
City spokesman Rico Singleton apologized, and described the issue as an "equipment malfunction." But whether it was a hardware glitch or a programming error, residents who were awakened in the middle of the night by their phones - and the mayor's voice - probably aren't very happy with the city this morning.
Lynn McLain, a northwest Baltimore resident in her 60s, whose phone rang at 4:17 a.m., never did get back to sleep. "Had it been an emergency evacuation, I could see calling. But I don't see calling to tell you you need to get canned food ... I hung up after the canned food."
"I felt myself thinking, 'What did this cost, as a taxpayer?' I also thought, 'She's going to lose more votes that she's going to get from this phone call.' ... Is it even a function of government to call and tell us to buy canned food? Get the TV stations to make an announcement," McLain said.
Singleton said the city plans to rely, in the future, on less disruptive text messages and email for such calls. But not everyone uses those technologies. For critical alerts, he said, robocalls may still be utilized.
Did you get the call? Your thoughts?
(SUN PHOTO: Jed Kirschbaum, January 2011)
Irene is onshore in NC; top winds now 85
The core winds of Hurriane Irene have come ashore near Cape Lookout, N.C. Top sustained winds are reported at 85 mph, about 10 mph above the tropical storm threshhold. The storm continues to move to the north northeast, across Pamlico Sound, on track to put move the center along the Delmarva coast by 8 p.m. Saturday night, according to AccuWeather.com
Irene is still a large, dangerous storm, capable of unloading tremendous rain and wind on the region. But it is continuing to weaken. The National Hurricane Center says satellite imagery show the storm cloud tops are warming on the western side, and rain bands on the southwest have dried up some. That means dry air from the southwest is being dragged in toward the storm's core, disrupting its energy system.
But Irene isn't through with us yet. Cape Hatteras instruments have clocked sustained winds of 59 mph, with gusts to 84. A storm surge of 4 to 8 feet is still forecast for the mid-Atlantic coast and the Lower Chesapeake Bay. Later today the beaches will see large and destructive waves.
The real story of this storm may well turn out to be heavy rain and flooding. Forecasters are still predicting 6 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 15 inches. On the Western Shore, Baltimore and Central Maryland are still forecast to get 2 to 5 inches of rain, with 6 to 8 closer to the Bay.
Carroll County has been added to the Flash Flood Watch. Here's part of the NWS/Sterling foreacst discussion:
"HIGHEST EXPECTED RAINFALL FROM IRENE OVER SRN MD...THOUGH EAST-WEST ORIENTED RAIN
BANDS MAY CREATE STRIPES OF HIGHER AMOUNTS UP AND DOWN THE WESTERN
SHORE OF MD. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4-6 INCHES...THOUGH
MOST AREAS IN THE FLOOD WATCH WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES.
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE CHESAPEAKE WILL
SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 6-8 RANGE AND TAPERING OFF SUBSTANTIALLY WEST OF
I-95."
Irene weakening, but still a threat
The core winds of Hurricane Irene were coming on shore on the eastern portions of North Carolina at daybreak Saturday. Top sustained winds have fallen to 90 mph, but Irene remains a dangerous storm, and is forecast to remain a hurricane when it reaches the Delmarva coast later today, and for
its second landfall on Long Island and New England on Sunday.
Ocean City and the Delmarva resorts should be prepared for sustained winds of 55 to 65 mph to night, with gusts to 85 mph. Rains on the Shore will total 6 to 12 inches, with some locations seeing as much as 15 inches. That's two or three months' worth in 24 hours. Expect disruptive and destructive flooding.
On the Western Shore, including the Baltimore area, forecasters have kept a Tropical Storm Warning
in effect. They predict tropical-storm-force winds to begin by early Saturday evening. Plan for sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph, with gusts to 65.
And there will be plenty of rain. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from noon Saturday through Sunday morning. While the streets may be dry this morning, forecasters warn that we'll see rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches during the storm, with some higher totals - 6 to 8 inches - along the Western Shore of the Chesapeake.
The best news is that the storm surge in the Upper Chesapeake Bay is not expected to exceed 1 to 3 feet. By comparison, the destructive surge during Tropical Storm Isabel in 2003 was 8 to 9 feet.
At 5 a.m., Hurricane Irene was 35 miles south of Cape Lookout, N.C., moving to the north northeast at 14 mph. Top sustained winds were blowing at 90 mph. It is a Cat. 1 storm.
Here is the latest advisory on Irene. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the forecast discussion.
August 26, 2011
Tropical storm winds felt in N.C.
The National Weather Service says tropical-storm-force winds are now being felt on the beaches of North Carolina as Hurricane Irene approaches Saturday's landfall. Observers at Folly Island, N.C. have clocked a wind gust to 55 mph.
Top sustained winds have fallen again, to 100 mph, but Irene is still a Category 2 storm. The 
storm is still moving due north, at 14 mph, and is now centered 300 miles south of Hatteras.
Irene's core winds are expected to approach the coast tonight, and over the beaches on Saturday before heading north toward Delmarva. The storm's center will pass over or near the Delmarva coast on Saturday night. Here's more from the National Hurricane Center:
"STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...INCLUDING TRIBUTARIES...AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...
DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES.
"IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
"SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS."
Talbot, Caroline now under Hurricane Warning
Talbot and Caroline counties on Maryland's Eastern Shore have been added to the Hurricane Warning zone. All counties farther south on the Maryland portion of Delmarva are already under 
Hurricane Warnings.
That's not a guarantee that hurricane conditions will develop Saturday in these two northern counties. The probabilities are put at up to 11 percent. The probability for Tropical Storm conditions have risen, however, to 75 percent.
Nearer Baltimore, we're getting reports that local grocery stores are being hit hard by residents seeking to load up on supplies in case they're stuck without power, or cut off by downed trees and flooded roads.
The Giant Foods store in Hunt Valley was said to be cleaned out of bottled water. Whole Foods in Mt. Washington was "picked clean... of everything," according to our reporter.
What are you seeing out there? Are you stocking up? Is this the summertime equivalent of a snowstorm run on the stores?
(PHOTO: Preparations in Morehead City, N.C. Steve Nesius, Reuters)
Irene weakens a bit, still on course
The National Hurricane Center at 11 a.m. reported that Hurricane Irene has weakened a bit, with top sustained winds slipping from 110 to 105 mph. But thew storm is expected to move across or just offshore from North carolina's barrier islands on Saturday.
From there Irene is forecast to move north northeast toward Delmarva, passing over the beaches or just offshore. The resort is under a Hurricane Warning, and is expecting sustained winds of 70 to 90 mph, with gusts to 105 mph by Saturday night.
Baltimore remains under a Tropical Storm Warning, with winds forecast to reach 31 to 36 mph Saturday night, increasing to 36 to 46 mph, with gusts to 60 mph.
Fortunately, it looks as though the city and other Western Shore communities will see a modest storm surge of just 1 to 3 feet overnight into Sunday, compared with the 8 to 9 feet during Tropical Storm Isabel.
Irene was located 330 miles south southwest of Cale Hatteras, moving north at 14 mph. That motion was forecast to begin a shift to the north northeast on Saturday. Hurricane winds extended 90 miles from the center, with tropical storm-force winds still 290 miles from the center
North Carolina beaches were expecting a storm surge of as much as 6 to 11 feet. In the Lower Chesapeake, the surge is predicted at 4 to 8 feet.
Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake today said Baltimore's emergency services are ready for the storm, and she urged Baltimore residents to be sure they're ready, too.
"Even if Baltimore is not in the direct path of Hurricane Irene, high winds, rain and a storm surge can cause flooding and downed power lines throughout the city," she said. "We have been monitoring the storm all week long, and we are taking the necessary steps to keep the city safe. It is absolutely vital that every resident is prepared for whatever Mother Nature throws our way."
In Annapolis, Mayor Joshua J. Cohen declared a State of Emergency and urged all residents in low-lying areas to evacuate their communities by Saturday afternoon. Annapolis High School is being opened as a shelter at 4 p.m. Saturday for those who cannot find shelter with friends or relatives.
Both mayors said they will open city garages for residents who need to move their cars to high ground. Parking will be free for those residents.
Still at the beaches? You need to leave
I know, it's a beautiful day, and you want to stay in your beach chair. Maybe you'll ride out the storm and snap some pictures of the cool waves.
Don't. Pack your stuff, batten the hatches and leave. This is a serious storm coming your way tomorrow. If you don't care about yourself, think of the people who love you, and those who will have to try to rescue you or recover your remains.
Here are some forecast items to think about:
1. Irene's top sustained winds are forecast to reach 120 mph when it makes landfall on the Outer Banks Saturday.
2. Barrier Islands from North Carolina to Ocean City are under evacuation orders.
3. Hurricane Warnings are posted from Hatteras to Sandy Hook, NJ. Flash Flood Warnings or Flood Watches are posted for Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey.
4. Forecasters expected 6 to 10 inches of rain, with a potential for 12 inches, during Irene's passage.
5. Flooding is the biggest single cause of death in hurricanes.
6. The forecast track takes the center of Irene right up the beach line to New York.
7. Waves will begin building tonight, reaching 12 to 15 feet Saturday through early Sunday.
8. The storm surge will be 4 to 8 feet in southern portions of the Chesapeake Bay and on the ocean side of Delmarva.
9. A State of Emergency has been declared in Maryland and Virginia.
Baltimore now under Tropical Storm Warning
Hurricane Irene, packing 110 mph winds, heavy rain and a 4 to 8-foot storm surge, continues to bear down on eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia and Maryland this morning. Hurricane Warnings now stretch from North Carolina to New Jersey, including the Maryland and Delaware resorts.
Baltimore and the entire Western Shore of Maryland - and the Eastern Shore inland from the beaches, are under a Tropical Storm Warning. Tropical storm conditions are now expected by Saturday from Baltimore, Howard and Montgomery counties, south and east.
The National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling, Va. says winds at BWI-Marshall Airport will pick up Saturday afternoon, with sustained winds increasing to 24 to 29 mph Saturday, gusting to 34. Saturday night, winds will increase to between 37 and 47 mph, gusting to 54 mph.
The Western Shore region should also be prepared for 6 to 8 inches of rain through Sunday, with more to the east. Up to a foot of rain is possible on the Lower Eastern Shore. A Flash Flood Watch was posted for the entire Western Shore.
A storm surge of 4 to 8 feet was predicted for southern portions of the Chesapeake, its tributaries, the Eastern Shore and Delmarva. The beaches will see large and destructive waves.
"Now is the time to rush to completion preparations for the protection of life and property," forecasters warned. "Evacuate if directed to do so by local officials, or if your home is vulnerable to high wind or flooding." Here's more:
"MINOR TO MODERATE DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MANY MOBILE HOMES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT HAVE CANOPIES...AWNINGS...OR CARPORTS.
POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES MAY SUSTAIN MINOR WALL DAMAGE AND PARTIAL
ROOF REMOVAL. OTHER HOMES MAY HAVE MINOR ROOF AND SIDING DAMAGE.
SOME LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BE TOSSED AROUND AND MAY CAUSE
ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. A FEW POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN
RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. SOME LARGE BRANCHES OF
HEALTHY TREES WILL BE SNAPPED. MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS
WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED."
At the 5 a.m. report, Hurricane Irene was located about 400 miles south of Cape Hatteras, moving north at 14 mph. Top sustained winds had eased a bit to 110 mph. Some restrengthening was possible, and the storm was expected to pass near or over the Outer Banks Saturday, at Cat. 2 or 3.
Here is the forecast for Ocean City. Here is the latest advisory on Irene. Here is the forecast discussion.
August 25, 2011
Irene's impact looking worse
Hurricane Irene continues to strengthen, and forecast storm tracks are trending closer to the mid-Atlantic beaches. All signs for this storm appear to be looking worse Thursday afternoon, instead of better.
Add to that the saturating rains we've been getting Thursday from an unrelated line of thunderstorms, and we're being set up for serious flooding once the real rain gets here with Irene this weekend.
Ocean City has already issued orders to evacuate the island.
AccuWeather.com forecasters say Irene has the potential to topple a great many trees and power lines, damage roofs, siding and windows. High bridges may be closed due to high winds. Air travel and high-profile vehicles will be affected. Flooding, too, will close roads. The greatest cause of loss of life in hurricanes is inland flooding.
The weather service says there is a 5 to 10 percent chance of a storm surge in excess of 7 feet at Annapolis, and from Edgewood to Middle River.
BGE storm officials are planning responses to at least 100,000 power outages, with options to expand the effort to deal with several hundred thousand. Some 500 repair workers from the Midwest are already in town ready to go to work to help BGE crews put the system back together.
AccuWeather.com is saying "there is potential for the worst hurricane impacts in 50 years along the northern part of the Atlantic seaboard as Irene plows northward." The company's forecasters are predicting winds of 30 to 40 mph for Baltimore, with gusts of 50 to 70 mph, with 4 to 8 inches of rain. "Conditions will be much worse on the Eastern Shore, where full hurricane effects can occur."
At least one forecast model is bringing the storm up the western side of the Chesapeake Bay, the worst scenario for Baltimore and other communities along the Western Shore becuse it would mean a damaging storm surge up the bay. Think Tropical Storm Isabel in 2003.
Most models are predicting that Irene will make landfall in the Outer Banks region - instead of passing offshore as yesterday's forecasts suggested. From there, it would track north and slightly east, following the Delmarva and Jersey beaches before slamming into New York, Long Island and charging on through New England.
But if you think Central Maryland will escape because we're well west of all that, consider this: Irene is a huge storm. Hurricane winds (73 mph and up) extend outward for 70 miles from the Center. (Annapolis is 89 miles from Ocean City as the crow flies.) And tropical storm force winds (39 and up) reach 290 miles from Irene's core.
Here's UMBC Prof. Jeffrey Halverson's take on Irene. It's not a pretty picture.
The National Hurricane Center forecasters do expect Irene will begin to weaken as it hits colder waters and wind shear on its run north to the Outer Banks. At some point they said in this 
afternoon's forecast discussion, "southwesterly shear is forecast to increase, which will likely start weakening process. However, since Irene has such a large and intense circulation, it will probably be rather slow to weaken."
The National Weather Service forecast is forecasting Irene's showers and thunderstorms will arrive in Baltimore by Friday night, intensifying on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible at BWI by Saturday night, with a 90 percent chance for heavy rainfall, with 1 to 2 inches possible on top of what may have already fallen. Expect lots more in heavy rain bands.
Tropical storm conditions are possible Sunday, too, but the storm will be departing rapidly as the day unfolds. Next week looks sunny and seasonable. For the cleanup.
Ocean City may see hurricane conditions on Sunday. Officials there have pulled the trigger on an evacuation.
Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the storm ahead.
Eric the Red, a professional meteorologist and frequent contributor here, said, "I think it is now safe to say we should expect major impacts from this storm, starting Saturday evening, at its worst Saturday night into Sunday morning, and then diminishing rapidly during the day Sunday... Folks, this is the real deal."
Hurricane Irene marches closer
Hurricane Irene is continuing its march toward the East Coast. The Category 3 storm strengthened Wednesday, and its top sustained winds are near 115 miles per hour, and even more power is expected today and tonight, the National Weather Service said in an advisory this morning.
Right now, the storm's hurricane-force winds extend 70 miles from the center, the NWS said, and the tropical storm-force winds swell out 255 miles.
As the storm moves over the Bahamas, it's expected to drop 6 to 12 inches of rain in addition to its life-threatening rip currents and waves, the NWS said.
For Marylanders, the biggest worry is still the storm's coming deluge of rain -- and the flooding it may bring with it. Read the latest on Maryland preparations here. And find a list of resources here.
August 24, 2011
Biggest worry from Irene? Big rain, flooding
As forecast, Irene has strengthened today, with top sustained winds now blowing at 120 mph. The National Hurricane center says conditions are favorable for some further strengthening, and Irene could become a Cat. 4 storm in the next day or so.
But for Maryland, wind may not be our biggest worry as Irene approaches. Forecast models are predicting a potential for tremendous rain as the storm moves up the coast - as much as 11 or 12 inches of rain is predicted to fall this weekend just off the coast. It would take only a slight shift in the storm track to bring that kind of rain onshore.
And even if the computer's prediction proves accurate, the rain totals forecast for the Delmarva Peninsula still come in at 8 or 9 inches. And for the Western Shore, totals come to 4 to 5 inches.
The forecast map was sent to me by Prof Jeff Halverson, out at UMBC. "This is a very potent dynamical set-up for huge rainfall."
"It looks like areas to our north and east are in for a monster soaking this weekend," he said. "The morning models have Irene merging with a trough in the jet stream (crossing the Great Lakes on Saturday), and I suspect a potent coastal front will develop. This is looking more and more like a Floyd-type extra-tropical transition, but shifted further north than in 1999. Things are looking very wet from NJ north through Maine. The models have us right on the edge of this heavy rain shield, but I would not be surprised to see it back-build further west."
Hurricane Floyd (track map) swept up the coast in September 1999. Its storm track looks almost identical to Irene's, but a tad farther west, running right up the coastline from the Outer Banks to New York City, then charging inland over New England.
Floyd's wind and rain cut off electric power to almost half a million Marylanders, and many waited days for service to be restored. That triggered an order from then-Gov. Parris Glendening for regulators to investigate the utilities' emergency response plans. (BGE officials said Wednesday they are already monitoring Irene, and "taking proactive action to ensure it is prepared to aggressively respond to widespread and extended power outages should they occur.")
Some 750 trees fell in Baltimore alone during Floyd. Severe flooding struck in Crisfield, Elkton and North East. The governor later applied for federal disaster assistance for 11 counties. The largest damage estimate was $1.3 million in Harford County.
There were sewage spills, 255 roads were closed by flooding or downed trees. One death in Maryland was attributed to the storm.
Are you ready? Here's a preparedness guide from the Maryland Emergency Management Agency.
(SUN PHOTO: Bottom: Floyd flooding, Karl Merton Ferron, September 1999)
Irene forecast track edges eastward
There are plenty of uncertainties still, but hurricane forecasters have nudged their forecast track for Hurricane Irene just a bit more to the east. If that holds up, it could mean this will be more of a coastal storm for the Maryland and Delaware resorts. And for the Western Shore, at least, that 
would spare us an Isabel-like storm surge up the Chesapeake Bay.
That's not to say Central Maryland would escape Irene's wrath entirely. We can still probably expect some heavy rain over the weekend. And because we've been getting more rain lately, and are expecting more from a cold front due here on Thursday, weekend rain from Irene will fall on soils and in streams already full of water. And that raises the risks of flooding.
Here's Jeffrey Halverson, associate professor of geography and environmental systems at UMBC, on the rain potential:
"Big storms like Irene, even while along the coast or offshore, can circulate Atlantic moisture inland well in advance of the actual storm center. Moderate to heavy rain may actually begin spreading up the East Coast 24-36 hours ahead of the storm. The models are certainly presenting this scenario."
At 11 a.m., Irene was located about 285 miles southeast of Nassau, moving to the northwest at 12 mph. Top sustained winds were clocked at 115 mph, making Irene a "major," Category 3 hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds were expected in the Central Bahamas by Wednesday night, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Storm suges of 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels are possible in the Bahamas, along with large and dangerous waves. Rainfall could total 6 to 12 inches in the Bahamas.
The center of the National Hurricane Center's "cone of uncertainty" for Irene's future path turns her gradually to the northwest and then north in the next two days. That would take Irene ashore in the Outer Banks region of North Carolina. Mandatory evacuation orders are already up for Okracoke Island.
The current path would place the storm at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay by 2 a.m. Sunday. Forecasters at the National Weather Service regional forecast office in Sterling, Va., say Irene will arrive there as a coldfront crosses Maryland from the northwest. As the moist tropical air runs up against the cold front, it would trigger heavy rain in Central Maryland.
The impact at the beaches will depend on Irene's strength - it's forecast to be a Cat..1 hurricane at that stage - and how close she comes to the shoreline. But those at the beaches can expected heavy rain, wind and surf. Here's a (clickable) map of the wind forecast for Sunday. It shows strong winds on the Lower Eastern Shore and the lower bay.
The NWS forecast office in Wakefield, Va., is saying that tropical storm conditions are possible for Ocean City Saturday night and Sunday. Here's part of their morning forecast discussion from Wakefield:
"AT THIS POINT THE LATEST CONSENSUS TRACK WOULD SUGGEST A PERIOD OF
STRONG POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY POTENTIALLY FLOODING
RAIN (MAINLY NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST) FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
(PRECEDING BANDS OF SHOWERS) THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NE SUNDAY."
Here is the latest forecast advisory for Irene. Here is the forecast track. And here is the National Hurricane Center's forecast discussion.
August 23, 2011
Irene may spoil your weekend
What is it about these storms that begin with the letter "I"? Remember Isabel in 2003?
Well, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say Hurricane Irene appears to be headed our way this weekend. They stress that track forecasts this far in advance can be off by 200 or 250 miles. But the computer models still seem to be in close agreement about this one.
They're predicting landfall late Saturday or early Sunday somewhere near the North Carolina/ South Carolina border. It would be the first hurricane landfall on the U.S. mainland since 2008.
From there, Irene seems likely to continue moving north.
Her track after landfall will be of critical importance to Central Maryland and the Eastern Shore. A curve toward the east would put the Baltimore-Washington area on the more benign west side of the storm's center. That would mean less rain and wind, with winds shoving water down the bay.
But a northward track to the west of the Chesapeake Bay could be expected to blow water up the bay, raising the dangers of a large storm surge and destructive coastal flooding. Think of how storms like Hazel in 1954 and Isabel in 2003 producing severe coastal flooding along the bay shores.
UPDATE, 12 noon: The latest National Hurricane Center track forecast still shows Irene approaching the Chesapeake Bay by daybreak Sunday. The center of the "cone of uncertainty" puts the storm at the mouth of the Chesapeake - still at Cat. 1 hurricane strength - by 8 a.m.
At noon Tuesday, Irene was a Cat. 2 hurricane, packing top sustained winds of 100 mph. It was located about 70 miles south of Grand Turk Island in the Bahamas, moving to the west northwest at 12 mph. Forecasters said Irene could reach Cat. 4, with sustained winds above 131 mph, by early Friday morning. It is thought likely to be a Cat. 3 storm at landfall in North Carolina early Sunday morning.
Earlier post resumes below.
The official forecast doesn't sound too dire. The NWS/Sterling is calling for highs in the low 80s, with the chances for showers and thunderstorms rising from 50 percent Saturday to 60 percent Saturday night. The probabilities slip to 40 percent Sunday and Monday.
Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the storm.
AccuWeather.com says Irene's forecast track looks most like Hurricane Bertha, which struck near Wilmington, N.C. in July 1996 and caused tremendous damage along the nearby beach communities of Wrightsville and Topsail Beach. Twelve people died and property damage was estimated at $270 million.
In Maryland, a much-weakened Bertha delivered plenty of rain and wind, and caused widespread power outages. But there was little serious damage, even at Ocean City.
Hurricane Floyd, in 1999, also followed a path similar to that forecast for Irene. It dropped 14 inches of rain on portions of Maryland, and produced winds of 50 to 70 mph. There was a 2 to 3-foot storm surge in the bay. Three Marylanders died and 250,000 lost electric power.
Isabel's path was quite different. It made landfall in North Carolina and drove inland toward West Virginia. Rainfall in Baltimore was not extraordinary, but the counter-clockwise winds around the storm's center drove water up the bay, causing some record storm surge numbers, with tremendous damage around the Inner Harbor, Fells Point and other bayshore communities such as Bowley's Quarters.
Here is the latest advisory on Irene. Here is the forecast discussion.
There's more below from Prof. Jeffrey Halverson, Associate Professor of Geography and Environmental Systems at UMBC
(Top: NWS, Irene forecast track. Bottom: Floyd, 1999)
August 22, 2011
Hurricane Irene poised for sweep up the East Coast
The first hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic season was leaving Puerto Rico and moving toward the 
northern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday morning.
And if Hurricane Irene follows the forecast storm track, it can be expected to steer a bit more to the north later this week and threaten the east coast of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. Miami forecasters are predicting tropical storm conditions there by Thursday. AccuWeather.com is forecasting landfall late Saturday in the Carolinas.
And at least one forecast model is predicting a very heavy rain/wind/surf event for the mid-Atlantic coast early next week.
Top sustained winds at Irene's center were blowing at 80 mph, making this a mid-range Category 1 hurricane for now. But some further strengthening is expected in the next few days.
Hurricane Warnings have been dropped for Puerto Rico and nearby islands, replaced by Tropical Storm Warnings.
Hurricane Warnings have been posted for the north coast of Hispaniola. Hurricane Watches are up for the south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Tropical Storm Warnings are in place for Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, all of Haiti and the south coast of the Dominican Republic, as well as the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Five to 10 inches of rain are possible in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola as Irene blows by. As much as 20 inches are possible in some locations. Storm surges of 1 to 4 feet are expected, with large and dangerous waves.
The National Hurricane Center is watching the atmosphere to Irene's north, where high pressure is keeping the storm from curving north into the open Atlantic. Instead, it is being steered west, closer to the U.S. coast.
Computer models differ on how close to the coast the storm will get. But there does appear to be some agreement that it will continue to strengthen. The forecast discussion says:
"IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT
SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME"
Here is the latest advisory for Irene. Here is the forecast track. Here is the forecast discussion.
Jeffrey B. Halverson, associate professor of geography and environmental systems at UMBC, is watching Irene's progress. He sent the latest GFS model results (for Monday, left). He said:
"For three days now, it has been portending a significant heavy rain event for the Mid Atlantic, and wind/high surf along the Eastern Shore. The track, heavy rain footprint and slow speed of the storm through the Mid Atlantic continues to look very Agnes (1972)-like."
AccuWeather.com's Alex Sasnowski, said, "It is very possible strong tropical storm or even hurricane conditions will continue to spread up the Atlantic Seaboard.
"If the fats forward motion of the storm continues, it could spread damage, including that of downed trees, power lines and coatal flooding issues, into the mid-Atlantic late this weekend and into southern and eastern New England by early next week."
1933 hurricane produced 10-foot storm surge
FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:
Anyone recall the Chesapeake/Potomac Hurricane 78 years ago tomorrow? It made landfall at Nag’s Head, N.C. Driven inland by high pressure over New England, it moved west of the Chesapeake Bay, driving a 10-foot storm surge up the bay much as Isabel would do 70 years later. Four people driving between Baltimore and D.C. drowned in a flooded Little Patuxent. A train crossing the Anacostia was swept off the tracks, killing 10. Baltimore saw 7.62 inches of rain that day, still a record.
Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:01 AM | Permalink
| Comments (1)
Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes
Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Hurricanes
August 19, 2011
Caribbean storm now Tropical Storm Harvey
The tropical depression in the western Caribbean has finally made it to tropical storm strength, becoming the eight named storm of the season, Harvey. It's not huge, but it's way bigger than playwright Mary Chase's six-foot rabbit of the same name.
Harvey was located this afternoon 155 miles east of Isla Roatan, Honduras. It was moving to the west at 10 mph, with top sustained winds of 40 mph. Additional strengthening is expected before landfall.
The minimal tropicals torm has already triggered Tropical Storm Warnings for the bay islands of Honduras and the coast of Belize in Central America. Tropical Storm Watches are up for coastal Honduras, Guatelamala and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Landfall there is likely on Saturday.
Minimal as Harvey is today, the National Hurricane Center said:
"HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND
BELIZE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN."
Here is the latest advisory on Harvey. Here is the forecast discussion. And here is the forecast storm track.
August 18, 2011
Tropical Storm threat late next week?
Hurricane forecasters and their computer models have begun to take an intense interest in a disturbance in the mid-Atlantic. It's not much yet, but the forecast models are unusually consistent in storm track predictions that would steer the storm toward a path up the East Coast by late next week.
They're not talking about the storm in the central Caribbean, which is given an 80 percent chance of becoming Tropical Storm Harvey in the next two days. That one is targeting the east coast of Central America.
The growing interest is in another disturbance now about 875 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. For now, it has just a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. But conditions downstream look better for development.
If this does become the next named storm after Harvey, it would become
Tropical Storm Irene. But what has forecasters so interested so soon are the computer models, which all seem to be taking the storm west and then north along paths that would intersect with the U.S. mainland somewhere between the west coast of Florida and the Carolinas.
If that proves correct, and the storm reaches even minimal hurricane strength, it would be the first hurricane to hit the U.S. mainland since 2008.
AccuWeather.com considered the possibilities and said, "One thing is for sure is that the Atlantic Basin could experience its first hurricane of the season next week. Residents across the Caribbean, the Gulf Coast and the Eastern Seaboard should pay close attention to this tropical wave and how it develops the next few days."
Eric the Red, a professional meteorologist in Baltimore and frequent contributor here, noted the possibilities and said:
August 17, 2011
Caribbean storms show little change
Hurricane forecasters say they've seen little change in that stormy region in the Caribbean. They don't seem to be getting better organized, and atmospheric pressures there have remained steady.
But conditions otherwise remain conducive to development as the tropical wave moves into the northwestern Caribbean, and the National Hurricane Center says there's still a 30 percent chance the disturbance could become the next named storm within 48 hours. That would be Harvey.
The system is moving to the west at 15 to 20 mph. AccuWeather.com forecasters say its most likely landfall would be in Central America.
August 16, 2011
Tropical Storm Gert on her last legs
Tropical Storm Gert - the seventh named storm of the 2011 Atlantic season - was still churning up the Atlantic well east of the Delmarva Peninsula on Tuesday. But the storm was moving briskly off to the northeast at 30 mph, and was losing strength.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect it will lose the rest of its tropical characteristics within 24 hours as it encounters cooler waters and begins to interact with a cold front.
Top sustained winds were estimated at 40 mph, a minimal tropical storm. There are no surf advisories or rip tide warnings at the beaches, so Gert appears to be too weak and too far away to be stirring things up for swimmers.
Curious that none of the seven named storms so far have reached hurricane strength. Seven is quite a lot for this time of year, but we seem really overdue for a hurricane. And the storms we have seen are veering away from the U.S. mainland - maybe due to the big, persistent dome of high pressure that has kept the South so hot this summer.
Here is the latest advisory for Gert. Here is the forecast discussion. And here is the track forecast map.
Meanwhile, forecasters are watching another cluster of storms in the eastern Caribbean. It's given only a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.
August 11, 2011
Tropics are stirring again
Hurricane forecasters are watching three disturbances in the Altantic, two of which are given a 40 percent chance of becoming tropical storms in the next two days.
The two most likely candidates to become Tropical Storms Franklin and Gert, are in the far eastern tropical Atlantic, near the Cape Verde Islands off West Africa. These "Cape Verde"-type storms are particularly dangerous because they have plenty of time to strengthen as they cross the ocean, and are the ones most likely to sweep up the East Coast and threaten densely populated U.S. territory.
The first was located 750 miles west of the Cape Verde islands. The collection of showers and thunderstorms appeared to be getting better organized, and conditions seemed favorable for more development, forecasters said. It was moving to the west northwest at 15 mph.
The second is farther east, just 275 miles south of the Cape Verde islands. This mass of clouds and scattered storms was moving to the west at 15 to 20 mph.
The third disturbance was located about halfway between the Carolinas and Bermuda, and likely making things messy for any cruise ships passing through the area. It was being given just a 10 percent chance of getting well-enough organized to become a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. And it was headed to the northeast, away from the U.S. mainland.
August 5, 2011
Emily given "high" chance of re-forming
The remnants of Tropical Storm Emily - what's left after her collision with the mountains of Hispaniola Thursday - are given a 60 percent chance of re-organizing into a tropical storm as they drift north toward the Florida coast. Here's what the National Hurricane Center is saying:
"ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AT THIS
TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AT 15 MPH."
Miami forecasters are predicting heavy rainfall, gusty winds and frequent lightning this weekend as Emily's remains pass through South Florida.
August 4, 2011
Emily falls apart over Hispaniola; could recover
The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Emily, which struck the island of Hispaniola Thursday, has degenerated into a tropical low after colliding with the island's mountains. Forecasters said they have not pronounced Emily dead yet:
"THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER
EASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO."
All watches and warnings have been discontinued. But the storm remains a potent rainmaker, threatening the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas with more torrential rains:
"TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS."
Here is the final advisory for Emily, unless the storm re-generates.
(PHOTO: Santo Domingo oceanfront, Erika Santelices, AFP/Getty Images)
August 3, 2011
Biggest threat from Emily may be heavy rain
Tropical Storm Emily was looking a bit disheveled this morning, with no increase in strength and increasing signs of disorganization as the storm approached Hispaniola. Top sustained winds remained at 50 mph.
The storm's primary threat to the island's people will be heavy rains, forecasters said. Totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, with some locations in danger of a deluge of up to 20 inches.
"THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES," forecasters said.
Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for both countries on Hispaniola, and for eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas, Turks and Caicos Islands. Watches are up for the Central Bahamas.
UPDATE, 2:30 p.m.: Emily's threat has caused several cruise lines to change course and/or cancel stops for some of its ships. Here's more.
There is some chance that Emily will fall apart as it crosses the mountainous terrain on Hispaniola. But it could also reform north of the island and become a concern for coastal interests from Florida to the Carolinas.
Here is the latest advisory on Emily. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the latest forecast discussion.
And while we're on the subject, the hurricane forecast team at Colorado State University said today they will not be changing their forecast for the 2011 Atlantic season.
"We are predicting the same levels of activity that we were forecasting in early April and June due to favorable Atlantic and neutral ENSO [El Nino/La Nina) conditions in the tropical Pacific," said William Gray. Continued warm water conditions and unusually sea-level low pressure anomalies in the tropical are also part of their reasoning.
So the CSU team continues to predict 16 named storms, nine of which will become hurricanes. And five of those hurricanes will reach "major" (Cat. 3) strength, if they're right.
They have recalculated their forecast for landfalls by a major hurricane along the US coast. They give it a 70 percent chance, well above the long-term average of 52 percent. They put the chances for a major storm making landfall somewhere on the East Coast, including Florida, at 46 percent. The long-term average is 31 percent.
The National Hurricane Center will post its August forecast update on Thursday.
August 2, 2011
Emily tracking toward Florida and SE coast
Tropical Storm Emily continues to menace the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today. And looking ahead, the forecast storm track shows the storm moving on toward Florida and the southeast coast of the U.S. by this weekend.
For now, Emily remains a minimal tropical storm, and "poorly organized," with top sustained winds of just 40 mph. It was located about 270 miles southeast of San Juan, PR this morning, with little or no forward movement. The islands of Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, as well as the Dominican Republic and Haiti on the island of Hispaniola, remained under Tropical Storm Warnings. The U.S. Virgin Islands are under a Tropical Storm Watch.
Emily is expected to quit her dawdling and start again toward the west northwest at 12 mph later today. Tropical storm-force winds extend 70 miles from the storm's center. St. Thomas, in the USVI, reported a gust to 49 mph early today.
Some strengthening is expected. But forecasters say several forecast models show Emily dissipating once it reaches Hispaniola. But if not, forecasters predict the storm - still at tropical storm strength - will begin a turn to the north later this week and could track up the southeast coast by Sunday.
August 1, 2011
New tropical storm heads for Haiti, Dominican Rep.
The fifth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic season has formed in the Caribbean Sea near the island of Dominica. The forecast track would carry the storm south of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, then across the Dominican Republic and Haiti by mid-week.
The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Emily's center this evening was about 350 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving to the west at 17 mph. Top sustained winds were estimated at 40 mph. Gradual strengthening was expected.
In anticipation of the storm, Tropical Storm Warnings have been posted for the islands of Dominica, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra. Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat and Antigua.
Here is the latest advisory for Emily. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the NHC discussion.
July 29, 2011
Tropical Storm Don heads for Texas
Tropical Storm Don, a little stronger today with top sustained winds of 50 mph, is bearing down on the southeast Texas coast this morning. And while forecasters are watching Don, they've also got 
an eye on a new disturbance off the northeast coast of South America that stands a 30 percent chance of becoming Tropical Storm Emily over the weekend.
Don's center was located 190 miles southeast of Corpus Christi this morning, moving to the west northwest at a brisk 14 mph. Tropical storm conditions extend more than 100 miles from Don's center. A Tropical Storm Warning was posted for the coast from the Rio Grande River north to Matagorda. Interests there can expect tropical storm conditions within 24 hours.
Texas is in the midst of an historic drought, so some will surely welcome the rain that's likely to come with Don. But it may be too much of a good thing for many. Forecasters are warning of 3 to 5 inches of rain, with some places receiving up to 7 inches from the storm. Isolated tornadoes are also possible.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the forecast discussion.
Meanwhile, out in the mid-Atlantic, forecasters are watching what could become the next storm of the season, Emily. It's now 1,200 miles east southeast of the Lesser Antilles. They say the disturbance continues to get itself better organized, and conditions look good for further strengthening.
July 27, 2011
Tropical Storm Don forms in the Gulf of Mexico
The fourth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season formed today in the southern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Don was located about 120 miles north of Cozumel, Mexico, and 755 miles east southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the storm today and measured sustained winds of 40 mph - just strong enough to qualify as a tropical storm. It was moving to the west northwest at 12 mph.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. Don was expected to approach the Texas coast by Friday. Given the terrible drought conditions in Texas, some rain may be welcome. But torrential rains and winds that could reach 65 mph may also threaten considerable damage, flash flooding and loss of life.
Here is the latest advisory on Don. Here is the forecast storm track. Here is the forecast discussion.
July 26, 2011
Hurricane Center watching Caribbean storm
Forecasters in the National Hurricane Center in Miami are watching another stormy region of the northwest Caribbean today.
While it's given only a 20 percent chance of becoming a named storm in the next 48 hours, the disturbance is expected to get more organized in the next few days, and does seem like it could bring some badly needed rain to Texas later this week.
The storm, which would be named Don if it reaches tropical storm strength, is located between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba today, moving to the west northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
July 20, 2011
Season's third tropical storm no threat to land
The hurricane season is picking up the pace, but so far there's no threat to land. Tropical Storm Cindy formed today in the open Atlantic Ocean, but forecasters say it is headed away from the U.S.
Cindy, the third named storm of the 2011 Atlantic season, took shape far from land, with top sustained winds of about 40 mph. It was headed northeast at 24 mph.
Tropical Storm Bret was reported to have weakened a bit more, with top winds slowing from 50 mph to 45 mph. It was located between the Carolina coast and Bermuda, moving to the northeast at 8 mph.
Here is the latest advisory on Bret and the forecast storm track.
Here is the latest on Cindy, and her storm track.
July 19, 2011
Bret weakens overnight, now a fish storm
Despite forecasts on Monday that he would become stronger overnight, perhaps reaching minimal hurricane force, Tropical Storm Bret got weaker instead, with top sustained winds slowing to 50 mph. More weakening is expected as the day goes by.
The storm was centered this morning 410 miles south of Cape Hatteras, moving to the north northeast at 7 mph. Forecasters expect it will turn more to the northeast today and weaken to tropical depression status 250 miles east of Delmarva by early Friday morning.
Outer Banks visitors are being advised to be mindful of increased rip current risks, especially on south-facing beaches.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track.
July 18, 2011
Season's second tropical storm going to sea
Tropical Storm Bret, the second named storm of the 2011 Atlantic season, is smacking the northwest Bahamas with heavy rains and wind. But the tempest is not expected to head for U.S. shores.
The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami says Bret is expected to remain at Tropical Storm force this week as it moves generally north and east between the Carolinas and Bermuda. Top sustained winds are currently about 50 mph. I'd expect it to kick up some surf on the Outer Banks and perhaps even on the Delmarva beaches.
NOAA will be sending Hurricane Hunter aircraft into the storm later today to gauge its dimensions. And forecasters say there is some likelihood Bret will gain some further strength as it pulls away from the Bahamas. But increasing wind shear later this week is expected to prevent it from becoming a hurricane.
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the forecast discussion.
June 1, 2011
Atlantic storm pops up on Opening Day
Floridians are looking at an unusual storm system moving onto the peninsula from the Atlantic Ocean today, the first official day of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. This weird disturbance actually began as a squall in Michigan.
The concentration of thunderstorms and gusty winds turned up Tuesday about 200 miles off the Jacksonville coast, and is moving south and west toward a Wednesday landfall in Central Florida. It's an area 
that badly needs rain, so the storm is not at all unwelcome. Better still, it won't have time to develop tropical characteristics and grow to more dangerous levels.
AccuWeather.com notes that much of Florida has received barely a quarter to a half of its usual rainfall this spring.
While we're on the topic of hurricanes, AccuWeather.com has posted a start-of-season update to its hurricane forecast. The only change is the addition of one major storm to the spreadsheet. So they're calling for 15 named storms, of which 8 are predicted to become hurricanes, and 4 will reach Cat. 3 status (sustained winds of 111 mph or more).
"We believe the highest potential for early season development will be near and off the southeast U.S. coast and from the southern and southeastern Gulf of Mexico southward over the western and southern Caribbean," the statement said.
"For the middle of the hurricane season, we see the greatest threat for the U.S. from the Texas coast eastward along the northern Gulf coast, as well as all Florida and Carolina coastal areas. Areas north of the North Carolina coast have a lower chance for direct impacts. We caution that just because this area has a lower chance does not imply no impact. There could also be indirect impacts from storms making landfall well to the south or even from the Gulf of Mexico. Those indirect impacts would include the potential for heavy flooding rainfall."
Out at Colorado State University, hurricane forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach have updated their forecast, but they have not changed their forecast numbers.
They do offer some landfall probabilities, however. "Based on our historical analysis along with our 
current forecast, the probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is approximately 72 percent," Klotzbach said. They're assuming that a more active season will mean more landfalls. But last season was one of the most active on record for the Atlantic, and there were no U.S. landfalls at all.
Breaking that down a little farther, Gray and Klotzbach say the chance of a major storm making landfall on the East Coast, from Florida northward, is 48 percent. The long-term average is 31 percent.
Both forecast teams base their expectations for an active season partly on the same factors: Persistent warm surface water temperatures in the Atlantic, especially in the hurricane "nursery" zones; "neutral" La Nina/El Nino conditions in the Pacific, which reduce the westerly Atlantic wind shear that can stifle hurricane formation; low air pressure in the hurricane development region of the Atlantic and westward into the Caribbean, and off West Africa.
May 19, 2011
Clip and save: 2011 hurricane predictions
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season opens June 1, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has finally weighed in with its forecast. So it's time to make note of all the springtime predictions for the coming storm season so we can check again Dec. 1 and see how these folks did. Here's how they lay out:
NAMED STORMS:
AccuWeather.com: 15
Colorado State U.: 16
WeatherBug: 13-14
NOAA: 12-18
Long-term average: 9.6
HURRICANES:
AccuWeather.com: 8
Colorado State: 9
WeatherBug: 7-8
NOAA: 6-10
Long-term average: 5.9
"MAJOR" (Cat. 3+) STORMS:
AccuWeather.com: 3
Colorado State: 5
WeatherBug: 4
NOAA: 3-6
Long-term average: 2.3
(SUN PHOTO: Solomons, Sept. 19, 2003, Karl Merton Ferron)
May 12, 2011
Another 2011 hurricane forecast is in
Earth Networks, parent company of WeatherBug, has issued its 2011 Atlantic hurricane forecast. Like AccuWeather, and Colorado State, they see an “active” season ahead. But their predictions come in just below the others, with 13-14 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes, and 4 “major” storms. They reason that Atlantic waters are cooler than last year, and La Nina is weakening. But they hint at an increased risk of U.S. landfalls. NOAA’s official 2011 forecast is due next week.
April 6, 2011
Colorado State offers its 2011 hurricane forecast
A week after AccuWeather.com posted its spring prognostications for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season, it's Colorado State University's turn. The mountain folks who never experience a hurricane are once again predicting an "above-average" storm season.
That's due in large measure to the fact that we are in a multi-decadal cycle that began in 1995 during which we should expect storm totals above the long-term (1950-2000) average in most years. The 16-year period between 1979 and 1994 saw 25 major (Cat. 3, 4 or 5) hurricanes. The 16 years since have witnessed 61.
The CSU scientists expect the cycle to continue for another 10 to 15 years before switching back to a long, less active phase.
The CSU forecast is also very close to the one issued by AccuWeather.com a week ago, except for a slightly more aggressive prediction on the number of "major" storms - Cat. 3 and above. Here's how the two predictions out so far compare:
AccuWeather.com, March 30: Named storms: 15. Hurricanes: 8. Major: 3
Colorado State, April 6: Named storms: 16. Hurricanes: 9. Major: 5
1950-2000 average: Named storms: 9.6. Hurricanes: 5.9. Major: 2.3
The new CSU forecast includes a reduction, by one named storm, in the numbers released in the school's December forecast.
The CSU team led by Phil Klotzbach, of the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project, points to several factors contributing to their calculations. "We expect that anomalously warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, combined with neutral tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures will contribute to an active season," he said.
The tropical Pacific is important because El Nino (above-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific) tends to suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic, while La Nina or neutral temperature conditions tend to allow storm development. After a La Nina winter in 2010-2011, the sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have been warming up and are expected to be neutral this summer.
The Colorado team also looks at oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Altantic and makes comparisons with those that existed during the summer in 29 prior years. They consider how those 
storm seasons turned out and then develop their "best estimate" of how the next season will look.
The closest analogs for the 2011 setup were found to be 1955, 1996, 2006 and 2008. All except 2006 had neutral or La Nina conditions, and all but 2006 were "very active" seasons.
Just where this year's storms can be expected to make landfall is impossible to predict with any precision. But the coastal regions of the United States have been extraordinarily lucky in recent years, said longtime hurricane forecaster William Gray, the other key member of the CSU team.
"Except for the very destructive hurricane seasons of 2004-2005, United States coastal residents have experienced no other major landfalling hurricanes since 1999. This recent 9 of 11-year period without any major landfall events should not be expected to continue," he said.
The team predicts a 72 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall in the U.S. The long-term average probability is 52 percent. The landfall chances for the East Coast, from Florida north, is put at 48 percent. The long-term average probability is 31 percent.
Last year in April, the CSU team predicted 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. The actual count was 19 named storms (the third-most active season on record), 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. No hurricanes made landfall in the U.S.
March 16, 2011
Limiting insurance in Md. hurricane zone okayed
Maryland's People's Insurance Counsel has lost again in its bid to overturn a decision by Allstate Insurance Company to stop writing new property insurance policies in portions of 11 counties in the state that it regards as most prone to catastrophic hurricane damage - chiefly zip codes on the Eastern Shore and around the Chesapeake Bay.
Earlier this month, the Maryland Court of Special Appeals affirmed a lower court's decision that Allstate did not violate state anti-discrimination laws in drawing a red line around the places where 
it found itself most vulnerable. Those laws were written in the 1970s to end racial discrimination by homeowners' and auto insurance companies.
The decision was another loss in the Allstate matter for the Maryland People's Insurance Counsel Division, which had sought to reverse the company's move.
"The flaw in the Division's effort is that it seeks to apply those conditions or restrictions [against illegal discrimination] to what was a fundamentally business decision of Allstate that did not remotely involve any of the traditional or historic discriminations," the court found.
Here, in brief, is how it played out:
In the wake of the terrible hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005, which caused major damage and huge insurance losses in Florida, Louisiana and Texas, Allstate began a risk analysis of its vulnerability to catastrophic damages that could result from landfalling hurricanes in 28 states.
Using a consultant's computer model, the company simulated 100,000 years of hurricane losses in storm-prone states, including Maryland, Delaware and Virginia. From that, they identified four model storms of Cat. 4 making landfall in Worcester County, Md., Sussex County, Del., Virginia Beach, Va., and Northhampton County, Va.
They projected what damages were likely from such storms in Maryland zip codes, and how exposed Allstate was to those losses. The result was a map laying out "hurricane bands" where Allstate's exposure was sharply higher than the average across the rest of the state. The company drew a line around those zip codes as "catastrophe-prone" and announced in 2006 it would stop writing new policies there. Current policy holders were not affected.
The People's Insurance Counsel - part of the Attorney General's office - took the company on, arguing that the move was arbitrary and unreasonable, and that the company failed to show its rates were insufficient to cover projected losses.
The Counsel also argued that no hurricane had made landfall in Maryland in at least 100 years. (In fact, the National Hurricane Center counts two that have. And many other storms have brushed the state; or, like Isabel in 2003, crossed it weakened to tropical storm strength after landfalls in the Carolinas or elsewhere.)
Allstate argued that its decisions were based on careful, objective analysis and sound business judgments.
The Maryland Insurance Commission in 2008 rejected the Insurance Counsel's arguments. So did the Circuit Court for Baltimore City. The Counsel took the case to the Court of Special Appeals.
In its March 1 opinion, the court ripped the Insurance Counsel's contentions, at various points, as "unreal," "absurd," based on a "fantasy analysis." The company's analyses of the risks it faced in the region, the court found, were sound.
Quoting from the Insurance Commissioner's earlier decision upholding Allstate's actions, the court said, "Allstate has demonstrated objectively that the zip codes located in Hurricane Bands 4-6 represent the greatest potential for loss in the event of a catastrophic storm when compared to the rest of the state ...[B]y refusing the accept additional insureds in the areas which pose the 
highest risk in the event of a catastrophe, Allstate will serve its business and economic purpose of reducing its exposure in the event of a catastrophic coastal storm."
In its analyses, Allstate found that if a storm identical to Hurricane Hazel in 1954 were to strike today, the company would face $307.8 million in insured losses in Maryland alone. Wind damage in Hurricane Band 4 would be 42 percent higher than the average for the rest of the state; 650 percent higher in Band 5, and 1,300 percent higher in Band 6.
The court also pointed out that there is a sharp difference between "ordinary risk" and "catastrophic risk." The former involves taking a chance on individuals by spreading the risk across a large number of insured people. In catastrophic risk, insuring a large number of individuals in a vulnerable location increases the danger of huge company losses in the event of, say, a hurricane strike.
"The fascinating development of the present case will illustrate, perhaps for the first time, the difference between short-term and long-term insurance problems and solutions, and the gaping difference between ordinary insurance risk and catastrophe risk," the court said.
Or, more colorfully, the court said, "The difference in magnitudes of risk between Hurricane Katrina, and Katrina Abramowitz, with two traffic infractions and three points on her driving record, is so vast as to be incomprehensible. Even to attempt to describe the one in terms of the other would be gibberish."
(SUN PHOTOS: Tropical Storm Isabel, 2003; Top to bottom: Algerina Perna, Jed Kirschbaum, Kim Hairston)
Hurricane names Igor and Tomas are retired
Dozens of deaths and hundreds of millions of dollars in damage have prompted the World Meteorological Organization to retire two names from last season's roster of Atlantic hurricanes.
Igor and Tomas will be replaced on the 2016 names list by Ian and Tobias, the WMO said.
Tropical storms that form in the Atlantic basin are given alternating male and female names drawn from a set of six lists. Each list has 21 names in alphabetical order (omitting Q, U, X, Y and Z). Each year's list is re-used six years later.
But when a storm causes enough death and damage, the WMO's hurricane committee will vote to retire the name, and it passes into history.
Hurricane Igor formed near the Cape Verde Islands last September, moved across the Atlantic to
a position just north of the Leeward Islands, where it reached Category 4 strength on Sept. 14. Top sustained winds were measured at of 155 mph.
The storm weakened at sea, but struck Bermuda as a Cat. 1 storm. From there it moved north toward Newfoundland and expanded in size. It made landfall near Cape Race, where it wreaked $200 million in damage - the worst there in 75 years. One person was killed in Newfoundland, two more elsewhere.
Tropical Storm Tomas became a hurricane on Oct. 30 after battering Barbados. It strengthened to Cat. 2 and struck several Caribbean Islands before moving between Haiti and Jamaica. Fourteen people were confirmed killed or missing in St. Lucia after the storm. Floods and landslides in Haiti killed 35. Damages in St. Lucia alone were estimated at $500 million.
The 2011 hurricane season begins June 1. The first names on the new list are Arlene, Bret, Cindy and Don.
(PHOTOS: Top: Tomas strikes Haiti, Carl Juste, Miami Herald/MCT; Bottom: Hurricane Igor, NOAA)
December 7, 2010
2010 hurricane season in one mesmerizing movie
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has captured satellite views of the entire 2010 Atlantic hurricane season and put them into a single 5-minute movie. It is mesmerizing. The season was a busy one. It tied with 1887 and 1995 for the third-highest number of named storms - 19.
Fortunately, warm and dry weather patterns over the U.S. blocked any of them from making a direct landfall on the U.S. mainland. Here's the movie: (Be patient while it loads.)
November 8, 2010
Tomas spares Haiti, but cholera still a threat
Hurricane Tomas passed to the west of the crowded Haitian capital Port au Prince over the weekend, mostly sparing the vulnerable earthquake resettlement camps. But local and international authorities continue to worry about the effects of heavy rains on the still-smoldering
cholera outbreak.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said the center of Hurricane Tomas passed through the Windward Passage between Haiti and Cuba, keeping its most intense winds focused on the westernmost regions of Haiti. It has since moved north and east into the open Atlantic and merged with larger weather systems, losing its tropical characteristics.
The Haitian government reported eight storm-related fatalities, and thousands of people displaced by flooding.
Cholera has killed more than 500 people in Haiti in recent weeks, and sickened more than 7,700. Storm-caused rains and flooding could help spread the bacteria and lead to more infections. Cholera spreads when contaminated water gets into food and water supplies. Severe diarrhea and vomiting can lead to dehydration, organ failure and death within hours.
(PHOTO: Thony Belizaire, AFP/Getty Images)
November 4, 2010
Haiti facing hurricane conditions, 5-10 inches of rain
Haiti is under a Hurricane Warning today as Tropical Storm Tomas continues its slow turn in the Caribbean toward the vulnerable island nation. The warning means hurricane conditions - winds of 73 mph or more - are expected somewhere in the warned area late tonight or early Friday. Forecasters have also warned the island to expect a 1- to 3-foot storm surge with "large and destructive waves," and 5 to 10 inches of rain.
At a press briefing this afternoon, National Hurricane Center Diretcor Bill Read said the hurricane-force winds should be limited to Haiti's exposed beaches, and mainly in the form of gusts. The rest of the country will see mostly tropical-storm-force winds, of 39 to 73 mph.
"The predominant threat is the heavy rains," he said, with amounts as high as 15 inches in isolated areas. "Even a five-inch rain can cause significant flash flooding and mudslides throughout the area there."
The wind and rain may find more than a million Haitians in vulnerable tent camps, where they have taken shelter after being displaced from their homes by last January's devastating earthquake.
The island has also been grappling with an outbreak of cholera outside of the capital Port au Prince. The disease has killed 492 people and sickened thousands.
The World Health Organization has said the epidemic is not over, and that the country should prepare for it to spread into the crowded capital.
Phil Gelman, the USAID"s Disaster Assistance Response Team Leader in Haiti, said aid agencies have been prepositioning emergency supplies for Haitians and assembling their own supplies to see them through the storm.
The World Meteorological Organization has also been advising Haitians, in French, to get out of vulnerable, low-lying locations and move into sturdier structures. He said surveys in the camps indicated "a lot of people" said they do have places to go. But he declined to guess how many will be riding out the storm in the open.
Gelman said efforts have been underway to clear drainage canals and "shore up hillsides" in advance of the storm "in an attempt to reduce the vulnerability of these informal settlements.".
Hurricane Warnings have also been posted today for the province of Guantanamo, in Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for Jamaica and two other eastern provinces in Cuba. A Tropical Storm Watch is up for the south coast of the Dominican Republic, just east of Haiti on the two countries' shared island of Hispaniola.
The National Hurricane Center said the storm was centered 295 miles west southwest of Port au Prince, moving to the north at 8 mph with top sustained winds of 50 mph. The latest forecast track would take the storm's center between Haiti and Cuba. But that would also place its strongest winds and rains on the east side of the Windward Passage - on Haiti.
Haitian authorities have urged people to seek safer shelter, and closed schools to reopen them as shelters. But there is little shelter to be had for hundreds of thousands of camp residents. Some have refused to leave without a guarantee of finding a safe shelter. In other parts of the impoverished country, people are living in flimsy homes, along dangerous, flood-prone rivers and on easily eroded hillsides.
Aid agencies were rushing in emergency supplies, and the U.S. has sent an amphibious ship to the area with 10 helicopters and medical and engineering teams. Read more in the Haitian Times, here.
Here is the latest advisory on Tomas. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.
November 3, 2010
Tomas perks up; Haiti warned
As predicted, Tomas is a tropical storm again, with top sustained winds of 45 mph. For a time earlier today, its disorganization caused some weakening, and it was demoted to a tropical depression. But the storm has revived this afternoon, and a tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch have been issued for Haiti.
More than a million Haitians displaced by January's earthquake remain vulnerable to the elements under tents and tarps in crowded displacement camps.
Tropical Storm Watches are also up now for eastern Cuba, including Guantanamo Bay, the south coast of the Dominican Republic, Jamaica and the southeastern Bahamas.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say Tomas was located 300 miles south southwest of Port au Prince, moving to the north northwest at 6 mph. It is expected to continue a turn to the northeast, passing over Haiti as a tropical storm on Friday. The Hurricane Center said:
"REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND TOMAS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH AS THE CENTER NEARS HAITI."
Here is the latest advisory on Tomas. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from orbit.
(PHOTO: AFP Getty Images, Thony Belizaire)
Tomas weakens, but may still regain strength
A disorganized Tropical Storm Tomas weakened to a mere tropical depression overnight. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami predict the storm will recover and reach hurricane strength again before reaching land.
Still, they're having trouble explaining the weakening, so their confidence in their predictions about the storm's future power is low.
Their track forecast, however, remains unchanged. Tomas is expected to make a turn to the north and track across Haiti:
"REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK."
Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from space.
November 2, 2010
Haiti in peril as Tomas gains strength
Hurricane forecasters say they see signs of strengthening in Tropical Storm Tomas, and the storm is still expected to regain hurricane strength before striking Haiti and the island of Hispaniola late this week.
Tomas on Tuesday morning was located 355 miles south of Port au Prince, Haiti, moving to the west at 12 mph. Top sustained winds were estimated at 50 mph, up a bit from yesterday's reading. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said they see an intensification of thunderstorms near the storm's central low, and signs of banding features in some quadrants - both indicators of increased organization.
Predictions have Tomas regaining hurricane strength early on Thursday, and making a sharp turn toward the north and then northeast, reaching Haiti by late Friday or early Saturday.
Needless to say, the Haitian people are unprepared for a hurricane. An estimated 1.3 million people displaced by last January's earthquake remain in makeshift shelters and crowded camps. 
Minor storms this fall have resulted in deaths, injuries and the destruction of thousands of family shelters. On top of that, the country is fighting to contain an outbreak of cholera outside the capital.
International aid agencies are rushing supplies to staging areas in preparation for the expected storm. But with so many people in the relocation camps, it is considered impossible to move them all to secure shelters during the storm. Preparations include sandbagging, digging drainage ditches in the camps, and distributing tarps and ropes.
Such relief supplies are short, and aid groups say promised earthquake aid, including $1.15 billion from the United States, has not arrived. This has the makings of yet another calamity for Haiti, and we will likely be reading a lot about it this weekend and next week.
The U.S. amphibious warship Iwo Jima was headed for the area this week to offer assistance. Here is the latest advisory on Tomas. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
(PHOTO: Reuters, Eduardo Munoz; tent camp north of Port au Prince)
November 1, 2010
Tomas weakens, but still a threat to Haiti
Tomas, weakened from its former Cat. 2 hurricane strength to a minimal tropical storm, is still expected to regain some of that strength and turn toward Haiti as a Cat. 1 hurricane by Friday 
morning.
The island nation has been advised to monitor the storm. And UN officials said more than a million Haitians are still living under tents and tarpaulins. A half-hour storm in September killed six people, injured 70 and damaged or destroyed the flimsy homes of 10,000 families, according to a wire service report. Evacuation of the vulnerable quake-refugee camps has been deemed impossible.
The National Hurricane Center said this morning that Tomas was about 420 miles southeast of Port au Prince, Haiti, in the eastern Caribbean Sea, moving to the west southwest at 14 mph. The storm's top sustained winds were just 45 mph.
But forecasters said re-strengthening could begin late on Tuesday, and a turn to the north could come by Thursday as the storm encounters a low-pressure system in the northwest Caribbean. Forecasters estimate a 36 percent chance that Port au Prince will see tropical-storm-force winds within five days.
High winds and heavy rains could be devastating for Haiti's people, many of whom have been living in makeshift shelters since last January's earthquake, Some are also coping with an outbreak of water-borne disease, including cholera.
Here is the latest advisory on Tomas. Here is the forecast storm track. Here is the view from orbit.
October 31, 2010
Hurricane Tomas could move toward Haiti
As if they didn't have enough to contend with in Haiti, now Hurricane Tomas is forecast to become a major Cat. 3 storm and could make a turn toward that tortured island nation later this week.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami says Tomas, the 12th hurricane of the 2010 Atlantic season, is about 350 miles south southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, moving toward the west 
northwest at 8 p.m. after pummeling the Windward Islands.
It is packing top sustained winds of 100 mph, making it just 11 mph short of a Cat. 3 storm. Some weakening is predicted as Tomas encounters shearing winds in the next few days. But conditions later this week are expected to enable a restrengthening.
High pressure to the north of the storm will keep it headed west for now. But a turn toward the north is possible perhaps four days from now, forecasters said, as the high breaks down.
There is no mention of Haiti in the morning forecast discussion. But, while confidence is low, the tentative forecast track does move Tomas ominously in that nation's direction by the end of the week. The forecasters say there is a 40 percent probability of tropical-storm force winds in Port au Prince within the next five days.
Here is the latest advisory on Hurricane Tomas. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from space.
October 29, 2010
Shary menaces Bermuda; new storm forming
That small storm in the Atlantic has become Tropical Storm Shary overnight, and while it appears to be a threat to Bermuda, is expected to swing north and east away from the U.S. mainland.
East of the Windward Islands, meanwhile, a second region of stormy weather appears to be on the verge of becoming Tropical Storm Tomas (pronounced toe-MAS) later today.
UPDATE, 5 p.m.: This storm has been upgraded to a tropical storm, and named Tomas. Only two more names remain on the primary list for 2010. Earlier post resumes below.
The National Hurricane Center said Shary (no kin to the late Shari Lewis or Lamb Chop) was located 220 miles south southwest of Bermuda, moving to the northwest at 18 mph. It has top sustained winds of 40 mph. The forecast track would turn the storm and take it just east of the island late today before accelerating off to the northeast. It is not expected to reach hurricane strength.
Here's the latest advisory on Shary. Here's the view from space.
Off the coast of Venezuela, the next tropical system was getting better organized. Forecasters in Miami said the disturbance was 330 miles east southeast of the southern Windward Islands, moving to the west northwest at 15 to 20 mph. It is given an 80 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone by this weekend.
An Air Force Reserve unit was scheduled to to into the storm later today. If it reaches tropical storm strength, it will be named Tomas. Northern portions of Venezuela and the southern Windwards can expect heavy rain and gusty winds in the next few days as the storm approaches.
A third distrubance in the Atlantic is given only a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
October 28, 2010
Tropics are stirring again
It looks like the 2010 hurricane season hasn't quite finished messing with our heads yet. The National Hurricane Center is tracking three disturbances in the Atlantic, at least one of which is given a good chance of becoming a tropical (or sub-tropical) cyclone by this weekend.
The nearest storm is centered about 700 miles south southeast of Bermuda, moving to the west northwest at at 15 mph. It hasn't changed much this morning, but forecasters say the conditions are improving for further development. They give it a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. If so, it will be named Shary.
Farther east, a region of showers and thunderstorms 1,200 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands is producing gale-force winds, but does not appear to be getting better organized. Forecasters in Miami give it a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Finally, a tropical wave now about 1,000 miles southeast of the Windward Islands is boiling up lots of thunderstorms over the Atlantic. It's moving to the west northwest at 15 mph, and conditions are good for further development. But for now, forecasters give it only a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within 48 hours.
October 25, 2010
Five weeks, four names left in hurricane season
Hurricane Richard has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and heads for the Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters don't expect the storm will re-strengthen once it reaches open water again. Wind conditions in the region should cause Richard to 
degenerate into a "remnant low," they say.
The rest of the Atlantic Basin looks pretty quiet as the official season moves into its last five weeks. Forecasters are watching another area of showers and thunderstorms in the eastern tropical Atlantic. But they give it only a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
The 2010 season is down to the last four names on the primary list of 21 names. They are Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walter. If those are all used and more are needed, the National Hurricane Center will turn to the Greek alphabet for more: Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and so on, until Dec. 31.
The last time that happened was in 2005, when the forecasters drew six names from the Greek alphabet list, finally closing the curtain on the season with Tropical Storm Zeta, which formed on Dec. 30, and finally expired on Jan. 6, 2006.
If any storms form in January, forecasters would go to the top of the 2011 Atlantic list, which begins with Arlene.
Here is the latest advisory on Richard. Here is the view from orbit.
October 24, 2010
Richard slogs into Belize, Yucatan
Tropical Storm Richard grew to Cat. 1 hurricane proportions earlier today, and is now headed ashore in Honduras, Belize and the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula.
The 10th hurricane of the season was moving ashore near Belize city in what was once British 
Honduras - now Belize. It was packing top sustained winds of 90 mph, with hurricane-force winds extending 15 miles from the center of this small stor. Tropical storm-force winds were being felt more than 100 miles from the center.
But wind is not the most dangerous part of this storm. Richard is also sending a 3- to 5-foot storm surge ashore near and north of the storm's center, with battering waves. Rain totals of 3 to 5 inches will be common, with some locations seeing as much as 10 inches. Landslides and flash floods could claim lives and property.
The storm is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by the time it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Wind shear there is expected to prevent the storm from re-intensifying over the warm Gulf waters.
Here is the latest advisory on Richard. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.
October 21, 2010
Tropical Storm Richard forms in Caribbean
The National Hurricane Center says the stormy region that's been drifting in the Caribbean in recent days has finally gained enough strength and organization to become Tropical Storm 
Richard, the 17th named storm of the 2010 Atlantic season.
It's not entirely clear yet what the future holds for Richard, but there are some models that move it into the Gulf of Mexico, where it could strengthen to a major, Cat. 3 storm.
For now, it is a minimal tropical storm, with top sustained winds of 40 mph. It is located 220 miles south southeast of the Cyaman Islands, moving to the southeast at 6 mph. That movement is forecast to turn to the west, and then west northwest by this weekend, putting Mexico's Yuicatan Peninsula in its path.
Here is the latest advisory on Richard. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.
October 14, 2010
Paula to dampen the Dry Tortugas
Hurricane Paula, a very small and now minimal Cat. 1 hurricane, is moving north of western Cuba and threatening extreme South Florida with heavy rain. A Tropical Storm Watch is posted now for the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas islands. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in Key West.
But the storm is expected to curve east and then southeast, staying mainly over the island of Cuba. A Hurricane Warning is up for portions of western Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Warning is posted for Havana.
Forecasters say Paula is moving to the northeast at 7 mph, with top sustained winds of 75 mph. As it interacts with the island and encounters more unfavorable winds, it is expected to weaken, becoming a tropical storm later Thursday, and a tropical depression by the weekend.
UPDATE, 11:00 AM: Paula has been downgraded to a tropical storm.
Paula is an unusually small hurricane, with hurricane force winds extending barely 10 miles from its center. Tropical storm winds are measurable only 50 miles out. But it is still a soaker, with 3 to 6 inches of rain forecast for portions of Cuba, and some locations told to expect as much as 10 inches, bringing the danger of flash floods and mudslides. A storm surge is expected to push high tides 2 to 4 feet above normal, with large waves.
Here is the latest advisory for Paula. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.
October 12, 2010
Hurricane Paula may linger in NW caribbean
Tropical Storm Paula strengthened to minimal hurricane status overnight. The storm contin