It's happened. Igor has appeared just off the West African coast, and he's coming this way. Igor (it's "EE-gor" not "EYE-gor") is certain to become the butt of bad jokes by meteorologists and David Letterman in the coming week. Just to get you up to speed on the "Young Frankenstein" movie dialogue many of these jokes will reference, here is a sampling.

The ninth named storm of the Atlantic season reached tropical storm force earlier today. The National Hurricane Center at 11 a.m. Wednesday said the storm was located about 95 miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, moving slowly to the west at 8 mph.

Igor's top sustained winds were blowing at just 40 mph, but hurricane watchers seem to have high hopes for the lad. AccuWeather.com has predicted it will become the season's next hurricane, and may (or may not) reach the continental U.S.:

"Igor could continue to plow westward toward the Antilles into next week, or could be picked up and turned northward by a trough of low pressure expected to drop in off the East Coast of the U.S. - Alex Sasnowski, senior meteorologist, AccuWeather.com

Here is the latest advisory on Igor. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Delmarva Peninsula.

Hurricane Earl continued to move toward southern New England and Atlantic Canada. Hurricane Warnings were up for Southeastern Massachusetts from Woods Hole around Cape Cod to Sagamore Beach, including the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.

Hurricane Watches were posted for portions of Nova Scotia. And Tropical Storm Warnings were up for the southern coasts of Long Island and Southern New England, as well as portions of Maine, all of Nova Scotia and other parts of Maritime Canada.

At 5 p.m., a sprawling Hurricane Earl was centered 230 miles south southwest of Nantucket, moving to the northeast at 22 mph. Tops sustained winds had fallen to 80 mph - just 6 mpg above minimal hurricane force.

Here is the latest advisory on Earl. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view of a still-good-looking Earl from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The barometer was continuing to fall in Ocean City late this morning as Hurricane Earl moved north and east from the North Carolina coastline. Top winds were gusting to 37 mph at the OC airport, but there was little rain in the gauge.

The Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect, but a look at the beach cams shows residents and visitors out and about, jogging the beach and watching the tumult at the surf line. A few knuckleheads were out on the waves, as these photos show.

As the storm continues to move away, and a cold front approaches from the northwest, it seems likely the weather will begin to clear this afternoon, the sun will break through and usher in a fine Labor Day weekend.

The surf will continue to be rough and dangerous for a few days. But it looks like the resort will spring back for a profitable end to the summer season.

Earl, meanwhile, continued to drift away, reduced to an 85-mph Cat. 1 hurricane in the 11 a.m. advisory. The storm's center was located about 175 miles northeast of Hatteras, accelerating to the north northeast at 21 mph. Here is the latest advisory for Earl. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

You can see that this morning's cloudy, humid weather in Baltimore is spinoff from Earl. Radar shows that the rain bands are holding mainly east of the bay.

The storm continues to pose a danger to Southeastern Massachusetts and Maritime Canada. But fo us, we'll soon begin to turn our weather eye back to the tropics, where three more storms are lined up.

Tropical Storm Fiona is in the mid-Atlantic, moving toward Bermuda.  The center was 245 miles south southwest of Bermuda, moving to the north northeast at 13 mph. Top sustained winds were estimated at 45 mph. A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the British overseas territory.

Fiona does not pose a danger to the U.S. East Coast, but can be expected to continue to help roil the surf here for several days.

Here is the latest advisory for Fiona. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Also under scrutiny by the National Hurricane Center in this busy season is Tropical Depression (and former Tropical Storm) Gaston. This struggling fellow, about 1,100 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, is looking pretty ragged. But forecasters say conditions are ripe for some re-development as it moves west at 10 mph. They give Gaston a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

Finally, just coming off the coast of West Africa is yet another stormy system. Some slow development seems possible, forecasters said. They give this one a 20 percent chance of becoming a named storm in the next two days.

Other than that? Very calm.

(AP PHOTOS: Rob Carr in Ocean City)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Earl, weakened to a 105-mph Cat. 2 storm, passed about 80 miles off Cape Hatteras early this morning and began its expected trek up the East Coast toward New England, angling even farther away from the Demarva shores. Peak winds at Hatteras' Mitchell Field overnight rose to 35 mph, with gusts to 62. Nearly 3 inches of rain were recorded.

Winds were beginning to pick up in Ocean City, where the winds just before 7 a.m. were clocked at 12 mph out of the northeast, with gusts to 26. The National Weather Service said the resort should expect sustained winds to increase to between 32 and 37 mph later this morning, with tropical-storm-force gusts to 46 mph.

Here's a look at the Bethany Beach web cam. And here's Rehoboth as the storm moves north.

A quarter- to a half-inch of rain is possible before skies begin to clear off this afternoon. But rough surf and dangerous rip currents will continue to make swimming foolhardy until seas calm from today's predicted 15 to 20 feet.

All-in-all, thanks to Earl's offshore track, it looks like the Maryland and Delaware beaches will be spared a seriously destructive storm. And aside from some small craft warnings, the weather in the Baltimore area looks fine. Maryland, for the most part, seems to have dodged another dangerous tropical system.

The Hurricane Watch was discontinued this morning from the Carolina border north to Cape Henlopen Delaware. A Tropical Storm Warning, however, remains in effect on Delmarva, and as far north as Sandy Hook, N.J., and in the Lower Chesapeake Bay south of New Point Comfort.

By 8 a.m., forecasters expect that Earl's eye will be located off the Virginia Capes, moving to the north northeast at 18 mph. The atmospheric pressure at the eye was rising, reflecting the slow weakening of the storm as it moves over cooler waters. The forecast storm track would take it to Southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the islands of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard, where a Hurricane Warning remained in effect. Gusts to 85 mph were forecast tonight for Nantucket.

From there, Earl is expected to move quickly toward Nova Scotia and the Canadian Maritime Provinces.

Here is the latest advisory for Earl. Here is the view from space. And here's a look at conditions off Hatteras, at Data Buoy 41025.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Here's a pretty nice picture of Hurricane Earl taken this afternoon by a NOAA satellite.

It shows the storm's spiral clouds bearing down on the Outer Banks, with the outermost clouds now entering Southern Maryland and the Delmarva Peninsula.

The storm's course is still said to be due north, with a turn to the north northeast due Friday. Top sustained winds have dropped to 115 mph, a minimal Cat. 3 storm now

Earl is predicted to be off the Virginia Capes by 8 a.m. Friday. 

Here's a very nice photo of Earl, from the NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab. Here's another, snapped by astronauts aboard the International Space Station.

If you want to track offshore air and water conditions as Earl approaches, you can click on the Diamond Shoals data buoy, off Hatteras. The barometer there has begun to fall sharply ahead of the storm. It's slipping here, too.

And here's how things are looking on the Outer Banks.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center is reporting at 2 p.m. Thursday that Hurricane Earl's top sustained winds have slowed to near 125 mph as it continues to spin north toward a brush with North Carolina's Outer Banks.

Hurricane Warnings are posted for the North Carolina coast, and for Southeastern Massachusetts, from Westport, around Cape Cod and the islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket to Hull, on the south side of Boston Harbor.

A Hurricane Watch remains in place for the mid-Atlantic coast from the Virginia/N.C. line to Cape Henlopen, Del., and for parts of Nova Scotia.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in place from the N.C/Va. line to Sandy Hook, N.J., including Delaware Bay and the southern end of the Chesapeake Bay.

Earl was expected to contune to weaken as wind shear and cooler waters take their toll. But it is likely to remain a dangerous storm as it nears the Carolina coast and Delmarva Peninsula, forecasters said. Hurricane-force winds extend 90 miles from the eye of the storm. tropical-storm-force winds extend as far as 230 miles from the center.

The coastal regions of the Eastern Shore are expected to see the worst of Earl's power. Tropical-storm-force winds may be felt as soon as late tonight or early Friday morning. The forecast for Ocean City calls for east winds to increase to 17 to 22 mph late tonight, and 33 to 43 mph Friday, with gusts to 55 mph.

Battering waves could rise to 18 feet, with a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet in the lower Chesapeake Bay. Rainfall at the resorts could total 1 to 2 inches.

The forecast for the Baltimore area for tonight and Friday remains pleasant.

At 2 p.m. Thursday, Earl's center was reported to be 245 miles south of Cape Hatteras, moving to the north at 18 mph. Here is the latest advisory on Earl. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Earl continued on a northward course Thursday that should put the Cat. 4 storm off the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay by 8 a.m. Friday. Forecasters say the storm will begin to weaken, but its wind field will expand.

That might account for the increase in wind speeds forecast for Ocean City Thursday night and Friday. National Weather Service forecasters in Wakefield, Va. now say the Maryland resort should prepare for east winds to increase to between 17 and 22 mph tonight, with gusts to 28 mph.

On Friday, forecasters said, winds at the resorts should swing around to the north as the storm pulls abreast of the Delmarva Peninsula, increasing to between 33 and 43 mph, with tropical-storm-force gusts to 55 mph. As much as an inch of rain is forecast for Ocean City during the period. The chances the resort will experience tropical-storm force winds during the storm were put at 59 percent.

Rough surf and dangerous currents are a given, as battering waves rise to a predicted 14 to 18 feet. (Baltimore's forecast, by the way, remains just fine.)

A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Maryland and Delaware costs and the Virginia portion of the Chesapeake Bay.

The brunt of Hurricane Earl's power is expected to be felt in eastern North Carolina, and in southeastern Massachusetts, where Hurricane Warnings are posted. Nantucket Island is being warned to expect winds of 80 mph and gusts to 105 Friday night.

At 11 a.m., the center of Hurricane Earl was located about 300 miles south of Cape Hatteras, moving to the north at 18 mph. An increase in speed and a turn to the north northeast were both expected on Friday. The storm's top sustained winds were estimated at 140 mph. A slow weakening is expected as the storm moves into a region of increased wind shear and cooler waters.

Here is the latest advisory on Earl. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

A powerful and dangerous Hurricane Earl continued to steam toward the North Carolina Outer Banks early Thursday, with winds strengthening to 145 mph overnight. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for all of the Maryland and Delaware Atlantic coastline.

If forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are right, the Cat. 4 storm's center, and its most dangerous effects, will stay offshore as the storm track curves gradually to the northeast and toward southeastern New England.

Weather service forecasters in Wakefield, Va. expect weather conditions in Ocean City will begin to deteriorate today, with winds peaking late Thursday and Friday between 29 and 34 mph, with gusts to 44 mph.

Here's more of the Tropical Storm Warning posted for the Delmarva region:

"OVER THE TIDEWATER REGION ALONG SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...STORM SURGE
VALUES EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 1.5 AND 3 FEET DURING HIGH TIDE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING. NEITHER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NOR TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO
POSE A THREAT TO THE WARNED AREAS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
MOST OF THE WARNED AREAS..."

The weather service is also warning of dangerous surf conditions and rip currents, with large battering waves rising to between 14 and 18 feet on Friday as the storm passes. Beach erosion and overwash is most likely farther south.

Back here in the Baltimore and Washington areas, Earl is not expected to be a factor. The Baltimore forecast calls for sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with no rain and only light breezes.

There are some advisories up. Coastal Flood Advisories are up for the western shore of the Chesapeake, and the tidal Potomac, as winds out of the south and a falling barometer ahead of Earl raise high tide levels in the bay one foot above normal today, and 1 to 3 feet above normal on Friday. Here are some high tide times for Maryland:

"ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...
HAVRE DE GRACE...4:26 AM AND 4:25 PM...
BOWLEY BAR...2:03 PM AND 3:04 AM...
FORT MCHENRY BALTIMORE...1:12 PM AND 2:13 AM...
ANNAPOLIS U.S. NAVAL ACADEMY...11:42 AM AND 12:43 AM...
CHESAPEAKE BEACH...10:25 AM AND 11:26 PM...
SOLOMONS ISLAND...8:34 AM AND 9:35 PM...
POINT LOOKOUT...7:44 AM AND 8:45 PM..."

It all sounds reassuring. But that's when forecasters issue this reminder:

"CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
EARL SHOULD FOLLOW SUCH A TRACK THAT MINIMIZES THE IMPACT HERE.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN TRACK WOULD WORSEN THE
IMPACT ON THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON EARL.
"
Here is the latest forecast advisory on Earl. Here is the forecast storm track. Here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

As if we needed more headaches from the tropics ... The National Hurricane Center has begun watching a new tropical depression in the Atlantic.

Dubbed Tropical Depression 9 for now, the stormy area was located 800 miles west southwest of the Cape Verde Islands - the same region where Earl (and Tropical Storm Fiona) formed last week. The new storm was moving to the west at 15 mph with top sustained winds of 35 mph.

UPDATE 5 p.m. Wednesday: TD9 has graduated to tropical storm status. It is, officially, Gaston. Earlier post resumes below.

Forecasters said the storm was expected to strengthen, and is likely to become a named tropical storm in 48 hours. If so, it would become Tropical Storm Gaston - the seventh named storm of the season.

Here is the latest advisory on TD9. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center has posted a Hurricane Watch for the Maryland and Delaware coastal counties. That means hurricane conditions - winds of 74 mph or higher - are possible there within 48 hours.

Forecasters have also issued Hurricane Warnings for the Outer Banks, from Surf City, N.C. north to the Virginia border. The warning means hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours.

The Hurricane Watch extends from the North Carolina/Virginia border north to Cape Henlopen in Delaware.

Hurricane Earl was located 725 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. It was moving toward the continues to track northwest at 17 mph. Top sustaiend winds were estimated at 125 mph, making this a "major" Category 3 hurricane. The Hurricane Center said:

"EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (9)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Earl, still on track to sweep the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina northward starting Thursday night, was downgraded slightly this morning to a strong Cat. 3 hurricane. 

Top sustained winds near the center of the storm were still blowing at 125 mph. Earl's center was located 815 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, moving to the northwest at 16 mph.

The forecast storm track would put Earl off the Outer Banks at 2 a.m. Friday, still at "major" Cat. 3 power. 

One of the forecast computer models, shown in the map from Weather Underground at left, sends the storm ashore near Wilmington and north directly across Delmarva.

Hurricane Watches, already posted for the Outer Banks, from Surf City, N.C. to the Virginia border, were extended overnight to include the Virginia coastline to Parramore Island on the Virginia portion of the Eastern Shore.

Here's the forecast for Ocean City, where tropical storm conditions are possible late Thursday and Friday.

The Hurricane Watch means hurricane conditions - with winds of 74 mph or higher - were possible within 36 hours.

Here is the latest advisory on Earl.

Here is the forecast storm track.

And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (7)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center has posted a Hurricane Watch for North Carolina's Outer Banks, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds, as powerful Hurricane Earl heads toward the barrier islands.

The watch extends from north of Surf City to the Virginia/North Carolina border. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the N.C. coast from Cape Fear to Surf City.

Earl's center was located about 1,000 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, moving to the northwest at 14 mph. Top sustained winds remained at 135 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward 90 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend for 200 miles.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions - winds of 74 mph or more - are possible within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions (winds 39-73 mph) are possible within 48 hours.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Earl (seen in this video from the International Space Station) continues to pull away from the Northern Leeward Islands today, with no slackening of its 135-mph, Cat. 4 winds. What hurricane watchers are focused on now is just where the surrounding weather systems will send the storm as it begins to accelerate toward Cape Hatteras and the rest of the U.S. East Coast north of the Outer Banks.

A jog to the east could mean fair, if blustery, weather and rough surf along the coast. A tilt to the west could bring serious winds, rain and waves to the North Carolina coast and points north.

The National Hurricane Center said the storm's center was 1,000 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras at mid-afternoon, moving to the west northwest at 14 mph. Forecasters said a Hurricane Watch may be posted late today for portions of the mid-Atlantic coast.

From here, Earl's path will be steered by high pressure - the Bermuda High - to the east, and a cold front approaching from the Great Lakes. If the cold front slows and is late in arriving, Earl could veer farther west and pound the coast by week's end, as one model predicts (yellow track on map). If it picks up speed, or high pressure over the ocean drifts farther out to sea, the storm could head north and east with little direct impact on the shoreline.

These and other factors are considered by Eric the Red as the professional forecaster from Baltimore (familiar to WeatherBlog readers from last winter's blizzard coverage) assesses the hazards we'll face as Earl draws near:

Continue reading "Earl's track all about timing" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Beach-goers should expect cloudy, breezy and showery weather to greet them Friday when they step out for the day in Ocean City. Unless the forecast changes in the coming days, Hurricane Earl is expected to pass well off the resort's beaches. The rest of the weekend looks fine, with sunny skies and highs near 80 degrees.

But there may be plenty of action in the surf until the storm departs, with rough waves and increased danger from rip currents facing anyone contemplating a dip in the Atlantic. A "moderate" rip current risk was already posted for the beaches on Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center said late Tuesday morning that Earl continued to move away from Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Heavy rains, battering waves and tropical-storm-force winds were all forecast to diminish today in the U.S. possessions as the storm continued to depart.

Those same hazards were expected to increase farther west in the Turks & Caicos Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning was posted. A Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the eastern Bahamas.

At 11 a.m. EDT, Earl's center was located 200 miles east of Grand Turk Island, moving to the west northwest at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds were estimated at 135 mph, with higher gusts. Earl remains a Category 4 hurricane. 

The forecast track at 11 a.m. shows a Cat. 3 Earl off Delmarva by 8 a.m. Friday, accelerating toward the north northeast. The National Hurricane Center estimates a 28 percent chance that Ocean City will experience 34-knot winds (39 mph) or higher by late Thursday or early Friday. 

The Ocean City forecast from the NWS forecast office in Wakefield, Va., calls for "mostly cloudy and breezy" weather Thursday night, with a 40 percent chance of showers, continuing until noon Friday, when the storm is forecast to pull away to the northeast. The balance of the holiday looks great at the shore.

For those of us stuck here in the Baltimore area, the forecast is all clear for the long weekend, with sunny weather and highs dropping from the low 90s into the low 80s.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

This morning's forecast from the National Hurricane Center continues to keep Hurricane Earl off the mid-Atlantic coast when it arrives there on Friday. None of the forecast computer models bring the storm's center to a direct landfall.

There is also some indication that, as the storm moves into increased wind shear, and over cooler waters, its strength is likely to diminish from the dangerous 135-mph, Category 4 rating it holds Tuesday morning.

Even so, forecasters are advising interests along the U.S. East Coast from Cape Hatteras to New England to continue to monitor Earl as the storm pulls away from the Northern Leeward Islands. Strong surf and dangerous rip currents continue to be a real hazard as the weekend approaches.

Earl's center was located this morning about 150 miles north northwest of Puerto Rico, moving to the west northwest at 13 mph. A gradual turn to the northwest was expected today, with that direction continuing through Wednesday.

The forecast storm track carries Earl to a point just off Cape Hatteras by early Friday, and off Delmarva later in the day. Central winds by that point are still expected to retain "major" Cat. 3 power. Successive tracks have seen the storm's most likely path creep slightly to the west.

But the official expectation is that Earl will stay offshore as it runs up the coast, funneled between high pressure spinning clockwise to the storm's east, and a low-pressure trough moving into the northeastern U.S. The latter system is forecast to bring Maryland cooler weather by the weekend, but exactly where the two systems will steer Earl remains unclear:

"SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR...A QUESTION WHICH HAS NOT BEEN SETTLED YET."

The other issue to keep in mind is how broad an area Earl, and its effects, will cover as it tracks up the coast. The National Hurricane Center forecasters say the storm's worst effects will be somewhat limited:

"GUIDANCE KEEPS A TIGHT GRADIENT OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM/S EFFECTS AS IT MOVES PARALLEL TO
THE COAST...ONCE IT MOVES NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE WESTERNMOST
EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL EFFECTS WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
AREAS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SHORES FROM THE VA TIDEWATER TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND."

That would spare most of Maryland. On the other hand, much of the state could use a hefty does of tropical moisture. If the forecast is correct, only the coastal counties would get the full benefit. 

Here is the latest advisory on Earl. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

With all eyes on (now 135-mph) Cat. 4 Hurricane Earl, it was easy to miss the arrival of a new tropical storm on the Atlantic stage today. Tropical Storm Fiona made the grade this afternoon, becoming the sixth named storm of the season. It's the gray smudge at the center of this satellite image. (That's Earl at upper left.)

Fiona is following in Earl's tracks. Its center was located about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving to the west at a brisk 24 mph. It could reach the Northern Leewards by Wednesday. The storm's top sustained winds were estimated at 40 mph. Some strengthening was forecast.

Here is the latest advisory on Fiona. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said today that Hurricane Earl has reached "major" (Cat. 3) hurricane status, with top sustained winds at 120 mph. Further strengthening is expected.

UPDATE: Late this afternoon Earl was upgraded again to a Cat. 4 storm, with top sustained winds of 135 mph. More strengthening was expected. The storm was moving away from the U.S. Virgin Islands. Earlier post reumes below.

The storm continues to pose an immediate threat of hurricane-force winds, battering weaves, 3- to 5-foot storm surge and up to a foot of rain to U.S. possessions in the northeast Caribbean, and could brush the U. S. East Coast later this week. Here's how some of the models spread the storm track.

At last check, Earl's center was located about 95 miles east northeast of St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. It was moving toward the west northwest at 15 mph. Here are the watches and warnings in effect late this (Monday) morning:

"A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

"A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

"A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
* PUERTO RICO

"A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

The storm's forecast track would carry it to the north and west in the next few days. Moving around the western edge of a zone of high pressure in the Atlantic, and east of a low-pressure trough forecast to move off the continent late this week.  

The question is where, precisely, those systems will steer the storm, and how close they will allow it to get to the mainland.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say they have had to adjust the track westward several times so far - not good. Then they add this note:

"THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.
EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL."

It's also important to note that, even if Earl stays well offshore, it will pass us as a Cat. 3 or 4 storm. Surf conditions at the beaches this weekend will likely be even more dangerous than they were this past weekend, when Ocean City lifeguards had to perform 250 rescues. One swimmer is still missing. And that's just Ocean City. Conditions were similar all along the mid-Atlantic coast.

Here is the latest advisory for Earl. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

For more on Earl, check out Foot's Forecast, the student weather service that did so well during last winter's blizzards. They're on the tropical forecast, too, this summer.

Continue reading "Earl now a "major" hurricane at 120 mph" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season is now a hurricane, and the National Hurricane Center's forecast shows Hurricane Earl growing to "major" proportions and making a sweep up the East Coast late this week.

For now, the center of the forecast "cone of uncertainty" keeps the storm well east of a direct landfall. But we seem quite likely to see rough surf and dangerous rip currents at the beaches as we approach the Labor Day weekend.

UPDATE: Strong surf and beach currents from Hurricane Danielle were causing problems at Ocean City this weekend. Earl could well be worse since it is forecast to pass closer to shore.

The hurricane center puts Earl's center less than 200 miles east of the island of Antigua, in the Northern Leewards. It is moving west northwest at 15 mph, with top sustained winds of 75 mph - just above minimal hurricane force. Here are the warnings and watches in effect Sunday afternoon:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

Forecasters say conditions are favorable for further strengthening as Earl approaches the Northern Leewards. The storm is expected to become a major (Cat. 3, 111 mph) storm within 36 hours. Forecasters at Sterling, Va. are now noting that the Baltimore-Washington area will need to keep a watch on the tropical system by the end of the week.

Here is the latest forecast advisory for Earl. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (6)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Well, the forecasters called for a busy season in the Atlantic, and that's what they're grappling with today. The graphic below shows wind forecasts for both Danielle (uppermost blob in graphic below) and Earl (lower wind field).

Hurricane Danielle grew to Cat. 4 status overnight, and now packs winds up to 135 mph. The storm is now 480 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving toward the northwest at 12 mph. The forecast track takes Danielle north from here, to pass east of self-governing British overseas territory before turning away to the northeast. But large waves and dangerous surf are forecast for the island.

Some slight strengthening is expected, but Danielle will soon move into cooler waters, which will begin to sap its strength. Even so, forecasters are warning that strong waves and rip currents generated by the storm will reach the mid-Atlantic U.S. coast by this weekend. Be careful in the surf. Here's a bit of the forecast from the Outer Banks:

"NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND INCREASING SWELLS FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE DANIELLE WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SEAS WILL PEAK AT 7 TO 9 FEET LATER SUNDAY THEN
SLOWLY DROP BELOW 6 FEET BY MONDAY AFTERNOON."

Here is the latest advisory for Danielle. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from space.

Next on deck is Tropical Storm Earl. This storm is following Danielle, but on a course taking it a bit farther south and to the left, making it, potentially, a stronger candidate for a run up the East Coast.

Earl was centered this morning 1,300 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving to the west at 17 mph. Top sustained winds were clocked at 45 mph. Earl is expected to reach hurricane force (74 mph) by Sunday, and eventually reaching "major" (Cat. 3) strength (111 mph or more).

For now, the storm is forecast to miss the Northern Leewards, but, forecasters warned ...

"A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING
EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND
COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL."

Here is the latest advisory on Earl. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from orbit.

Finally, forecasters are watching another tropical wave just off the coast of West Africa. It is given a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. If so, it would get the name Fiona.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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The National Weather Service says long-period ocean swells generated by a distant Hurricane Danielle are expected to reach the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Saturday.

That will mean an increased risk of dangerous rip currents for bathers, but it will also likely attract surfers eager to jump on bigger-than-usual waves.

The word came from a Hazardous Weather Outlook posted today for Dare and Hyde counties on the Outer Banks. So far, there are no similar advisories for Maryland and Delaware beaches, but the marine forecast does show 4- to 5-foot seas by late Sunday.

Danielle remains a Cat. 2 hurricane, now 680 miles southeast of Bermuda. It is not expected to pose a direct threat to the East Coast. Instead, forecasters believe it will veer northward just east of Bermuda. But seas kicked up by the storm's 110-mph winds are expected to be felt on the U.S. coast. The storm is predicted to reach Cat. 3 strength late Thursday or Friday.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Hurricane Danielle continues to move to the northwest across the Atlantic today, but forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect it will soon be swept to the north and later to the northeast by atmospheric patterns over the ocean. That will carry the storm east of Bermuda and away from any threat to the U.S. East Coast.

Not far behind Danielle, however, Tropical Storm Earl continued to strengthen, and a third storm appeared to be gathering steam off West Africa. If that trend continues, it would become Tropical Storm Fiona.

Danielle was situated about 770 miles southeast of Bermuda this morning, moving to the northwest at 15 mph. The hurricane's top sustained winds were estimated at 105 mph, making it a Cat. 2 storm on the Safir-Simpson scale.

Here is the latest advisory on Danielle. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from orbit.

Tropical Storm Earl was located 1,700 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands this morning. It was moving to the west at 17 mph, with top sustained winds of 45 mph. Forecasters said Earl is likely to see continued slow strengthening, and could reach hurricane force by Saturday, and "major" (Cat. 3) hurricane status by early next week.

Here is the latest advisory on Earl. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from space.

Finally, to the east of Earl, forecasters are watching another area of stormy weather now moving off West Africa.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
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Tropical Depression 7 has been upgraded to a full-fledged tropical storm, the fifth of the season, dubbed Earl.

Earl is a minimal storm, with top sustained winds of 40 mph. It is moving west at 16 mph, and is now about 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. Strengthening is expected to continue, with Earl likely to become a Cat. 1 hurricane by Friday.

Forecasters still expect this storm, like Danielle, will pass north of the Lesser Antilles.

Here is the latest advisory on Earl. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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As predicted, Danielle (center, photo above) has strengthened enough overnight to regain hurricane status, although top sustained winds remain at just 85 mph, a Cat. 1 storm for now. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say conditions for Danielle should improve in the coming days, allowing the storm to reach "major" (Cat. 3, 111 mph) status before weakening again by the weekend.

The storm poses no immediate threat to any land, and it is forecast to turn toward the north, and away from any encounter with the U.S.

Here is the latest advisory for Danielle. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from orbit.

Next up in the Atlantic is Tropical Depression Seven (right, in photo), which is expected to become the season's fifth named storm later today - Earl.  The storm is now about 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, moving toward the west at 17 mph, with top sustained winds of 35 mph.

Forecasters see little to inhibit strengthening in the next two or three days, so TD7 is expected to become a hurricane by the weekend. Initial guidance suggests this storm will parallel Danielle's path, steering northwest away from the Lesser Antilles. With luck, it will be a threat only to shipping and fish.

Here is the latest advisory on TD7. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The pace of storm formation is picking up in the waters near the Cape Verde Islands in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Even as a slightly weakened Hurricane Danielle continues to move across the central Atlantic, forecasters are preparing to issue advisories on a new storm brewing off West Africa.

First Danielle. After reaching Cat. 2 strength late yesterday, the storm has been downgraded Tuesday morning to a Cat. 1 storm again, with top sustained winds of just 80 mph. Erosion of the storm's eye wall by an infusion of dry air ended Danielle's acceleration "with a thud," forecasters said.

UPDATE 5:30 p.m.: Danielle was downgraded this afternoon to a tropical storm, with top sustained winds of just 70 mph. But forecasters predicted the demotion would be temporary. Restrengthening to hurricane stature is expected within 48 hours.

The weakening seems to have caught hurricane-watchers by surprise. Here's how they see the storm's immediate future:

"SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WELL DANIELLE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT THE DRY AIR.  ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST."

For now, they have set aside previous advisories that the storm would reach "major" (Cat. 3) status in the next few days. Although the track has edged a bit farther to the left than expected, Danielle is still expected to make a turn to the north before ever becoming a threat to the East Coast of the U.S. It would pass well east of Bermuda, too.

The storm continues to move toward the west northwest at 20 mph. Here is the latest advisory on Danielle. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from space.

Not far behind Danielle, the next Cape Verde storm is brewing off West Africa. Forecasters give it a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. For now, it is a tropical depression about 1,100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. It is moving west northwest at 15 mph. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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The storm system brewing far out in the Atlantic has become the second hurricane of the Atlantic season.

The National Hurricane Center today reported that Hurricane Danielle is now 1,300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving toward the west northwest at 17 mph. Top sustained winds have reached 75 mph.

Danielle is too far out to pose any immediate threat to land. But the storm continues to strengthen and is forecast to become a "major" (Cat. 3) storm by Wednesday, with top winds in excess of 111 mph.

Here is the latest advisory on Danielle. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The National Hurricane Center is now tracking a new tropical depression in the Atlantic, and predicts it could become a hurricane as early as Monday. If so, it will be the fourth named storm of the 2010 Atlantic season, and would carry the name Danielle.

UPDATE 5 p.m.: This storm is now, officially, Tropical Storm Danielle. Earlier post resumes below.

The storm - still badly organized - is in the lower left of this water vapor image.

Tropical Depression Six is now located 580 miles west southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, moving to the west northwest at 9 mph. Its top sustained winds are just 30 mph, but the storm is expected to strengthen slowly over the next 48 hours.

Here is the latest advisory on TD6. Here is the forecast track, which would seem to take it toward the island of Bermuda by next weekend. And here is the view from orbit. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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Tropical Storm Colin may be weak, and it appears to pose no danger of a U.S. landfall as it passes west of Bermuda this weekend. But the storm is likely to kick up strong surf along Maryland and Delaware beaches.

If you're at the shore, or headed there this weekend, you'll want to see this from the NWS forecast office in Wakefield, Va.:

"THE COMBINATION OF A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW ALONG WITH THE INCREASING
SWELL FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM COLIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS
WEEKEND."

Here's the forecast for Ocean City.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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With only three named storms on the books so far as we move into the traditional August-to-October peak of hurricane activity in the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center has trimmed the top end of its predictions for hurricane activity during the 2010 season. But not by much.

There is still "a high likelihood the season could be very active, and it has the potential for being one of the more active on record," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a part of the National Weather Service.

And while he made no predictions on where the storms are most likely to strike the U.S., he did add that "multiple strikes are more likely during the more active seasons, such as could occur this year."

He stressed the need for advance preparations regardless of the outlook. "People need to prepare for each and every hurricane season, regardless of this outlook or any other outlook," Bell said. "It only takes one hurricane to make for a disastrous year."

"It is equally disconcerting that our coastlines have built up considerably in the last few decades, and many more people are not in potential harm's way," he said.

Separately, the Colorado State University forecast team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray issued their August forecast update. It's unchanged from their June 2 predictions: 18 named storms, of which 10 will become hurricanes, 5 of them reaching Cat. 3 strength. Their forecast includes landfall estimates: a 50 percent chance that a major hurricane will strike the U.S. East Coast, including Florida; a 49 percent chance of a major storm striking the Gulf Coast, and a 64 percent chance of a cat. 3 storm striking in the Caribbean and Central America. All these probabilities are well above the long-term averages. 

In a teleconference Thursday, Bell said NOAA's official storm forecast for the 2010 Atlantic season now calls for 14 to 20 named storms (down from 14 to 23 in the NOAA forecast issued in May). Of those, 8 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes (down from 8 to 14). And 4 to 6 of the hurricanes (down from 3 to 7) are predicted to reach "major" force, at Cat. 3 or higher and sustained winds of 111 mph or more.

Three major factors are still in place to generate this high level of storm formation, Bell said. The first is a continuing, multidecadal pattern of high storm activity that began in 1995.  "So we're 16 years into an active era that historically lasts 25 to 40 years," he said.

The second is a pattern of record-high sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Those temperatures are currently running 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit above average. "The previous record warm year is 2005," Bell said.

Bell didn't point this out, but 2005 brought us Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (satellite image, top), and ended with a record 27 named strorms. In fact, the NHC ran out of names that season and had to employ Greek alphabet letters for the last six tropical storms, two of which became hurricanes.

The third factor Bell cited is the strengthening of the La Nina conditions in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. La Ninas tend to change wind patterns in the tropical Atlantic in ways that weaken the high-altitude winds that otherwise tend to cut off tropical storm development. 

So far this season, there have been three tropical storms, only one of which has reached hurricane strength. Hurricane Alex went ashore in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula (photo above) as a tropical storm on June 27, and again in northeast Mexico on June 30 as a Cat. 2 hurricane.

Tropical Storm Bonnie crossed the southern tip of Florida on July 23 with little impact. And Tropical Storm Colin weakened in the mid-Atlantic earlier this week. Remnants of the storm (satellite image, left) continue to cross the Atlantic. They are given a 50 percent chance of regaining tropical storm strength in the next 48 hours. 

(PHOTO: Middle photo: Matamoros, Mex., by Adrian Del Angel/Agence France Press/Getty Images)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Forecasters keeping watch over now-Tropical Storm Colin don't see much chance that the storm will strengthen into a hurricane. And any impact on the U.S. East Coast would seem to be limited mostly to heavy surf.

UPDATE 5:30 p.m.: Tropical Storm Colin has fallen apart. The National Hurricane Center is now calling it a "remnant low," that is expected to weaken in the coming days. Earlier post continues below.   

The morning line on Colin is that the storm is having considerable trouble holding itself together. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said that Colin "has a very ragged appearance this morning." The closed circulation they saw Monday seems to have broken down, and the storm is encountering some shearing winds out of the west, which are putting a drag on further strengthening.

That said, Colin (center right in the NASA photo at right) is now about 800 miles east southeast of the Leeward Islands, moving toward the west at a brisk 24 mph. Top sustained winds are around 40 mph. There are no tropical storm watches or warnings up yet anywhere. But people with interests in the Northern Leewards and the Virgin Islands have been advised to monitor the storm's progress.

The storm track posted for Colin would take it north of Puerto Rico, with a slow turn toward the northwest, and then the north. That would bring it somewhere between Bermuda and the South Carolina coast by Sunday. Some slow strengthening is expected, eventually. But, for now, the Hurricane Center does not express much confidence that the storm could become even a Cat. 1 hurricane (73 mph) before then.

If Colin does hold itself together through all this, residents and vacationers along the East Coast can probably expect to see some impact on surf conditions as the storm moves east of the beaches next week. Heavy surf and rip currents are the most likely effects.

And depending on the storm's path, they could see some clouds and showers, too. That would be a boon to Maryland's Lower Eastern Shore, which is in moderate to severe drought. That's an outcome we could root for.

Alternatively, the hurricane forecasters say, "Colin could degenerate to an open wave due to a combination of its rapid motion and westerly shear."

Here is the latest advisory on Colin. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
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The National Hurricane Center has upgraded that stormy region in the tropical Atlantic to tropical depression status, with a 90 percent chance that it will become the season's third named Atlantic storm, perhaps late today. If so, it will become Tropical Storm Colin. For now, it's just Tropical Depression #4, or TD 4.

Storm trackers said TD4 is now 1,300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, moving to the west northwest at 17 mph. Top sustained winds are just below tropical storm force, at 35 mph. Further strengthening is expected, but it does not appear headed for hurricane status anytime soon.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

The storm is in pretty warm waters, just what's needed to keep it fueled. Here's a map of sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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 Hard to imagine that Gulf Coast residents are too impressed, or worried by what's left of Tropical Storm Bonnie.

The National Hurricane Center has downgraded the storm to a tropical depression again, and Tropical Storm Warnings along the coast have been discontinued. Gulf Coast residents have weathered this sort of stuff many times. Considering what else they've had to deal with in recent years, this can't be a biggie.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. Not too impressive.

But I expect people in northern Louisiana are looking forward to the rain. They are in extreme drought at the moment - the red zone on the map at left.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
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Tropical Storm Bonnie, the second named storm of the 2010 season, was packing sustained winds of 40 mph this morning as it moved onto the coast of Southeast Florida.

The minimal tropical storm was expected to cross South Florida and re-emerge in the Gulf of Mexico late tonight and Saturday morning. After crossing the northern Gulf, the storm was forecast to approach the Gulf Coast of Louisiana late on Saturday.

Forecasters don't think Bonnie will reach hurricane strength. But South Florida and the Keys were warned to expect tropical-storm-force winds today and heavy rain - as much as 5 inches in some locations.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the northern Gulf Coast, from Destin, Fla. to Morgan City, La., including Lake Pontchartrain.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
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The National Hurricane Center says the stormy region that's been dumping heavy rain on Puerto Rico in recent days has become the third tropical depression of the 2010 Atlantic season. It appears headed through the Florida Straits toward the Gulf coasts of Louisiana and/or Texas in the coming days.

That will make it problematic for the thousands of boats and crew members working to secure the BP Deepwater Horizon well, drill the two relief wells and scoop up as much spilled crude as they can. Then there are the thousands deployed across the region on hundreds of other oil rigs.

On the other hand, northern Louisiana badly needs the rain.

TD-3, now in the Bahamas, is expected to become the second named tropical storm of the season, earning the name Bonnie when its sustained winds reach 39 mph.

Tropical Storm Warnings have already been posted for the southern tip of Florida, including the Florida Keys and Florida Bay.

That means tropical storm conditions are expected there within 36 hours.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the view from orbit. 

(NASA image)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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A region of thunderstorms and soaking rains near Puerto Rico appears to be getting better organized. Hurricane forecasters now say there's a 60 percent chance the disturbance will become the region's second named tropical storm - Bonnie - within 48 hours. Forecasters said:

"ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

"REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...
EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS."

If this does become Tropical Storm Bonnie, the name may stir up memories of other storms by that name. A Hurricane Bonnie in 1986 made landfall in Texas, where three deaths were blamed on the storm and damages totaled $2 million. The storm dropped as much as 13 inches of rain and spawned 11 tornadoes.

Another Hurricane Bonnie made landfall in North Carolina in 1998 as a Category 3 storm. It packed 100 mph winds and 11 inches of rain. Total damage was estimated at $1 billion.

The most recent Bonnie was a tropical storm in 2004 (the name lists are recycled every 6 years). It crossed the Florida peninsula from west to east - the first of five landfalls in Florida that season - then ran up the East Coast without causing much of a problem.

For the moment, though, this latest storm is mostly just a big rain-maker. Here's the forecast for San Juan.

Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the storm. They expect it will give Florida a good soaking by the end of the week.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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Hurricane forecasters are watching two areas of stormy weather in the tropics. Neither one is given much chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next 48 hours - just 20 percent. But they are expected to produce plenty of gusty winds and heavy rain for islands in their path, including Haiti.

The first disturbance is located near the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. It was stirring up showers and thunderstorms as it drifted west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Gusty winds and locally heavy rains were forecast for the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where hundreds of thousands of people displaced by last winter's earthquake remain in flimsy shelters.

The second area of stormy weather is located in the central and western Caribbean Sea. It was moving westward at 10 to 15 mph with showers and thunderstorms, but posed no immediate threat to major land masses. Stay tuned.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season is up and running today as Tropical Storm Alex gathers strength in the western Caribbean Sea. The storm appears to be headed for Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, and from there into the western Gulf of Mexico.

We don't wish this storm on anyone, but at least a more westerly track will keep the worst of the storm's effects away from the many ships working in the northeastern gulf to contain the BP oil well blowout. Can't imagine what would happen if they had to leave the area and allow the well to spew freely until the weather clears.

Alex has top sustained winds this morning of 40 mph. It is headed west-northwest at 8 mph. The storm is packing rains that could total 4 to 8 inches, which would pose a threat of flooding and mudslides once it makes landfall. 

Here's the latest advisory. And here's the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
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That stormy region in the western Caribbean was getting better organized and gaining strength Friday and forecasters now give it a 70 percent chance of becoming the Atlantic season's first named tropical storm - Alex - within 48 hours.

UPDATE: Chances are now put at 80 percent that this storm will become a tropical storm within 48 hours, and maybe sooner.

 Designated 93L, the storm was located between the northeast coast of Honduras and Grand Cayman Island. Surface pressures were falling - a sign of strengthening - and upper level winds were becoming more friendly to further development.

Computer models disagree on where the storm would go from there. Some take it west northwest toward the Yucatan and Mexico's northeast coast. Others send it more to the north, across the region where BP is trying to stop its oil well blowout, and coastal residents are laboring to keep oil off their shores. 

An Air Force reconnaissance plane was scheduled to fly into the storm later today to gather more data on its development.

Also on the satellite images this morning is a second region of stormy weather. This one is in the Atlantic, just north east of the northern Leeward Islands. It's pretty disorganized, and forecasters say any development will be slow. They give it just a 10 percent chance of becoming a named tropical storm within the next 48 hours. It's headed northwest and should be no threat to land for some time.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:22 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Chances that a stormy region in the Caribbean will get organized and strengthen to tropical storm force appear to be growing today. The National Hurricane Center gives the weather in the region a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days, up from near zero a few days ago.

For now, it's still a rather disorganized patch of thunderstorms affecting portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba, as well as the Cayman Islands. But ...

"Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for deverlopment of this system as it moves westward or west-northwestward around 10 mph over the next couple of days," the NHC said. "There is a medium chance (40 percent) of this system becoming a tropoical cyclone during the next 48 hours."

In the meantime, AccuWeather.com forecaster Joe Bastardi has said, "The lid is about to pop off our first Atlantic threat of the season." He believes steering winds could bring the storm - if it forms - into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Gulf waters are very warm, so that would not be good news for those working to get the BP well under control, or to clear the beaches and marshlands of oil. 

Bastardi recently revised upward his early forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. From the 16 to 18 named storms he forecast back in March, he has boosted his estimate to 18 to 21 storms. That puts him more in line with NOAA's May forecast of 14-23 named storms.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:53 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
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The Atlantic storm that hurricane forecasters have been watching as, potentially, the first tropical storm of the Atlantic season, appeared to be weakening this morning.

The National Hurricane Center again lowered its estimate of the chances for this storm, labeled 92L,  to become a topical storm within the next 48 hours, to 30 percent. Showers and thunderstorms in the region of the low-pressure center were thinning out. And downstream, conditions for redevelopment were becoming less favorable.

Satellite images (left) seemed to show a vaguely recognizable spiral shape to the clouds in the region. But the infrared images made it evident that the highest and coldest cloud tops were disappearing, an indication of diminishing thunderstorms at the center of the low.

Seems we (and Haiti, and the Gulf) have dodged this bullet.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:06 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Hurricane forecasters are watching a stormy area in the Atlantic that could become the season's first tropical storm - Alex. The low-pressure center is currently far from any land mass, more than 1,400 miles east southeast of the Windward Islands of the Caribbean.

But conditions in the region are favorable for further development, forecasters said. And they give the storm a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm during the next 48 hours. The disturbed weather is moving towatd the west northwest at 15 mph.

UPDATE 2 p.m. EDT: Forecasters this afternoon have reduced, to 40 percent, their estimate of this system's chances to become a tropical storm in the next few days.

Hurricane forecasters across the board have predicted a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic this year. They point to record-high sea surface temperatures in area of the Atlantic where many storms are born, and to developing La Nina conditions in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, which allows favorable wind conditions to develop in the Atlantic.

(An earlier version of this post stated "developing El Nino conditions" would contribute to an active hurricane season. The blogger regrets the error.)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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The remnants of the NE Pacific's first tropical storm of the season, Agatha, are given little chance of quick redevelopment over the western Caribbean Sea. Conditions over the Gulf of Mexico are said to be even less conducive to storm formation at the moment.

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center on Agatha's prospects:

"INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM AGATHA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...PARTICULARLY
TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ARE NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO."

But while Agatha poses only a slight risk to the Gulf, it has already wreaked havoc over parts of Central America, with 140 reported dead and scores more missing in the affected countries of Guatemala, El Salvador and Mexico. 

Torrential rains have caused landslides and a rather stupendous sinkhole in Guatemala City (photo, above).

Also, AccuWeather.com is reporting that moisture from Agatha's remnants is being felt in South Florida:

"Tropical moisture from Agatha's remnants was already reaching South Florida Tuesday morning. Locally heavy showers and thunderstorms already reportedly caused minor urban flooding in the southwest Miami metro area by mid-morning after 3 to 5 inches of rain fell."

(PHOTO: Reuters/Casa Presidencial handout)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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It's the beginning of the hurricane season in the north eastern Pacific Ocean, too, and it's off to a tragic start as remnants of Tropical Storm Agatha continue to drench parts of Guatemala, Mexico and El Salvador with up to 20 inches of rain. At least 16 people have died and 69,000 have been evacuated amid the torrential rains and resulting landslides.

In contrast with the Atlantic, the eastern Pacific is expected to have a quiet season this year, with forecasters giving the region a 75 percent chance of a below-normal number of tropical storms forming, and a 10 percent chance of only a normal season.  Forecasters cite ongoing multi-decadal cycles that are suppressing storm formation in the region, and the expected neutral or La Nina phase of the Pacific cycle of seas-surface temperatures.

Those are some of the same reasons why predictions for the Atlantic basin call for an active to extremely active season this year. While La Ninas tend to suppress tropical storm formation in the Pacific, the long-distance atmospheric patterns they set up tend to take the brakes off storm formation in the Atlantic. And, the Atlantic remains in its own multi-decadal cycle which, since 1995, has stimulated above-normal storm formation there.

The eastern Pacific has it own name list for the 2010 season, too, starting with Agatha. Here is the list for the Atlantic season, beginning with Alex.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Just about everybody who makes seasonal hurricane forecasts in the spring has made one for the 2010 Atlantic season, which opens, officially, on June 1 and runs through November.

And they're all calling for an "active season." That's because the El Nino event that suppressed storm formation last seaosn is gone, and is likely to be replace dby La Nina, which takes the brakes off storm formation in the Atlantic.

There are also some record warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic this season. And, we remain in the middle of a multi-decadal cycle of air pressure and water temperature factors in the Atlantic that have made for above-average storm activity in the Atlantic basin since 1995.

Here's a rundown of some major forecasters' predictions for 2010:

Organization      Named storms  Hurricanes   "Major" (Cat. 3 or higher)

AccuWeather.com:   16-18       10                   4

Colorado State U.:    15            8                   4

NOAA:                       14-23       8-14              3-7

NC State Univ.:        14-19       7-11

WeatherBug:           12-17       6-9               4

Average:                 9.6           5.9                2.3

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Jeff Masters, at WeatherUnderground, has posted a detailed discussion of what might happen when a hurricane boils up over the Gulf of Mexico this summer and barrels through the big BP oil slick. It's not a pretty picture:

"One of the more unnerving prospects to consider if a hurricane hits the oil spill is what the hurricane's storm surge might do with the oil/dispersant mixture. The foul mix would ride inland on top of the surge, potentially fouling residential areas and hundreds of square miles of sensitive ecosystems with the toxic stew.

"The impacts of the oil and dispersant on vegetation may be too low to cause significant damage, since the hurricane would dilute the mixture with a large amount of sea water, and wash much of the toxic brew off the vegetation with heavy rain."

Yes, but ... There's more. Read it here.

(PHOTO: Joe Raedle, Getty Images)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center has issued a statement noting the development of an area of bad weather northeast of the Bahamas. The gale, moving slowly toward the north northwest, has a 30-to-50-percent chance of developing into the Atlantic season's first tropical storm, officials said. Here's the satellite loop. And here's more from the hurricane center:

"A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL
TO GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS."

If so, the bad weather could begin to pose the risk of rough surf and rip currents along the southeastern U.S. coastline in the week ahead. Cruise ships leaving Baltimore and points north with destinations in Bermuda or the Caribbean might also encounter bad weather and rough seas en route. 

AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi thinks the storm will stay offshore, wandering around off the Carolinas for a time before heading east and out to sea. But he says it will likely send gales and showers onshore. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Those faithful readers who were with us during the blizzards of 2009-2010 will remember our intrepid contributor, Eric the Red. The professional meteorologist from Baltimore helped keep us abreast of coastal lows and negative NAOs and other winter terrors about to be visited upon Central Maryland.

Well, Eric is back, and this time he's got his eye on the tropics, and what he sees could be our first taste of the 2010 hurricane season. Or not. Time will tell. Anyway, on Wednesday, he says...

"...my eyes were drawn to a disturbed area of weather along an old frontal boundary in the Florida Straits.  Well, now it's Friday, and that area of disturbed weather has shifted east, and is now located to the east-northeast of the Bahamas... (upper right on satellite map) 

"OK, cool... should just scootch off and out to sea ... Wooo Haaa Haaaa haaaaa......

"Remember our "negative" NAO... the blocking high over the nrn Atlantic?  Yup, the thing that kept blocking all the storms and gave us 3 blizzards and 2 close calls.  Well... it's baaaack.  And as it builds and strengthens, it will prevent our whatever-it-is to the east of the Bahamas from escaping out to sea.  So, this way early heads up is being sent.

"It appears that as upper-level winds become more favorable, a tropical storm or hybrid version of one will begin to take shape early next week.  This system will be pushed slowly to the west and northwest by the blocking high, and would likely begin to impact portions of the central and southern Ataltnic Coast by mid to late next week (Weds-Fri). 

"Most models take it toward the central North Carolina coast.  At this point, it's something to watch and note.  Don't ask me now if it's gonna impact your Memorial Day beach weekend cos you be at the Surf 'N Sands Condo on 132nd, 3rd floor Ocean Front (2nd door down on the left from the elevator).  I haven't a clue.  But this is the time of year when old frontal boundaries can generate tropical storms, and this one fits the bill.  I'm sure there are lots of folks with plans, so I'll keep ya posted. - E."

AccuWeather.com also sees a tropical threat to the southeast coast next week.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi has released his spring hurricane forecast to those of us who won't pay for his company's pricier services, which made it available weeks ago. "It's a big year coming up," he told me in an interview Tuesday morning. Here's the link to the story we posted today. It will run Wednesday in print.

Readers are already yawning at the predictions. "We hear the same prediction every year," they say. Or, "Why should we believe them? They can't even predict the weather for the Preakness on Saturday."

Well, actually, near-term weather forecasts are now quite reliable. Saturday should be sunny for the Preakness. Long-term hurricane forecasts are less so. But the challenge is greater.

And it is true that hurricane season forecasters have been repeating themselves a lot in recent years. That's partly because we are in an active phase of the multi-decadal Atlantic cycle. It began in 1995, and we have seen more active hurricane seasons most years since then, compared with the long-term averages. So we can expect them to call for an "active" season quite frequently until the decadal cycle shifts.

It's also true that the same forecasters found themselves backpedaling on last season's forecasts for another active season. That's because the Pacific was heating up last summer, moving into a moderate El Nino, which tends to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

So the spring forecasts were too high. In March, AccuWeather.com called for 13 named storms, cutting that to 10 in May as the El Nino numbers came in. In April, the team at Colorado State University predicted 12. WeatherBug said we'd see 11 to 13. And in May, NOAA predicted 9 to 14.

In the end, we saw only 9 named storms, just a shade below the long-term averages. There were only 3 hurricanes in 2009, roughly half the long-term average. Two of those became "major" (Cat. 3 or higher) storms, a bit below the average of 2.3. It was blessedly quiet in the tropics.

Forecasts can miss their target, and Bastardi freely admits it. "In 2007 I was wrong," he said. "I thought it would be a big year in Florida. Instead, all the [storm] tracks went south and east of Florida." He ticked off a couple of other forecast "busts."

Bastardi had the right idea about this past winter, warning last fall we'd see the coldest, snowiest winter in these parts since 2002-2003. And he was right about the snow, except that it was WAY snowier than even his forecast of 25 inches at BWI. (We got a record-shattering 77 inches. Our average at BWI is 18 inches.) And, he expected that the most snow would fall in January and February. He got the February part right, but January saw  few flakes, and he didn't anticipate the big December storm.

But hey, these are forecasts. Informed guesses. They are not the TV listings. We shouldn't rely on them for their precision, but consider them fair warning. Bastardi's hurricane forecast, and those that will follow in the coming weeks,  should be reminders that these storms are very real, and potentially terrible possibilities. We need to consider them in our planning and preparations (thinking of a September cruise?), and pay attention when real storms appear on the horizon.

And if the direst forecasts fizzle, we should celebrate.

(TOP: AP Photo/ Dallas Morning News; BOTTOM: Smiley N. Pool/AFP/Getty Images)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Another hurricane forecaster has chimed in, and again the spring forecast calls for a busier-than-usual storm season in the Atlantic basin.

This prediction is from the forecasting team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray at Colorado State University. They don't see a lot of hurricanes in Colorado, but Gray has been making predictions and getting attention for them for 27 years. 

Their April prognostication calls for 15 named storms in the season that opens June 1 and closes Dec. 1. That's better than 50 percent higher than the long-term average of 9.6 names storms per season.

Of those named storms, Klotzbach and Gray expect eight to develop into hurricanes (the average is 5.9), while four would reach "major" Category 3 status, with top winds of 111 mph or more. (The average is 2.3 major storms per season.)

The Colorado State forecast is more conservative than the one issued last month by AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi, who predicted 16 to 18 named storms this season.

But both camps base their forecasts on the same factors: a waning El Nino event in the tropical Pacific and and unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic.  The warm Atlantic waters provide fuel for the birth and growth of big storms. El Nino's influence produces "shear" winds in the Atlantic that tend to cut off storm development, so a weakening El Nino would remove those curbs.

Last year's hurricane season, under the restricting influence of a growing El Nino event, triggered just nine named storms, and only three hurricanes. Forecasters repeatedly revised and downsized their predictions last year as the season played out and the El Nino strengthened.

This season, Klotzbach and Gray say based on developing conditions and 58 years of historical data, that the risk of a major (Cat. 3) storm making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 69 percent, compared with an average of 52 percent in the 20th century.

As for the risk of a major storm making landfall along the East Coast, the Colorado State team put the chances at 45 percent, compared with a long-term average of 31 percent.

"While patterns may change before the start of the hurricane season," Gray said, "we believe current conditions warrant concern for an above-average season."

The federal forecasters at NOAA will release their forecasts in May.

(SUN PHOTOS/Top: David Hobby/Bottom: Karl Merton Ferron/ Tropical Storm Isabel, 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

AccuWeather.com's hurricane forecasters believe the 2010 Atlantic season will be "much more active" than last year's relatively meek performance. A rapidly weakening El Nino event in the tropical Pacific, unusually warm surface waters in the Atlantic's key hurricane nursery, weakening trade winds and higher humidities, they said, are all pointing to increased activity.

"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said forecaster Joe Bastardi, who led the company's hurricane forecast team. He also correctly forecasted a very snowy winter season for the mid-Atlantic states in 2009-2010, although his predictions were far short of the actual, record-breaking totals.

The new AccuWeather.com hurricane forecast, out Wednesday morning, calls for 16 to 18 tropical storms this season (the average is 11; last year saw just nine, and only three became hurricanes).

Of the 16 to 18 he expects, Bastardi believes 15 will occur in the western Atlantic. He predicts seven landfalls, five of them hurricanes, of which two or three will come ashore in the U.S. (about average).

Bastardi sees similarities in this year's setup to those in 1964, 1995 and 1998. In 1964, Hurricane Cleo struck near Miami as a Cat. 2 storm and killed 217 people. In 1995, Hurricane Opal struck the Florida panhandle and caused $3 billion in damages. And in 1998, Hurricane Bonnie (photo) came ashore near Wilmington, N.C. as a strong Cat. 2 storm and caused $1 billion in damage.

The hurricane season begins officially on June 1, and continues through November.

(SUN PHOTO: Karl Merton Ferron/Bonnie whips Ocean City, Md. in 1998)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The 2009 hurricane season has been over for exactly 9 days and already an intrepid band of forecasters has issued its predictions for 2010.

Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, at Colorado State University, say the El Nino event that was blamed for suppressing hurricane formation during the 2009 season (and influencing this stormy autumn we've had) will wane by next summer.

That, they say, will take the brakes off the underlying conditions - warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic - that have been sending us unusually active Atlantic seasons, on average, since 1995.

So, nearly six months out, the CSU team expects to see 11 to 16 named storms next season. Of those, 6 to 8 will reach hurricane force, with 3 to 5 of those reaching Cat. 3 strength (111 mph).

The long-term averages are: 9.6 named storms; 5.9 hurricanes; 2.3 "intense" (Cat. 3) storms.

Their December forecast predicts a 40 percent chance that at least one major (Cat. 3) storm will make landfall along the East Coast, including Florida's Atlantic coast. The long-term average is 31 percent. 

It's the first time Klotzbach and Gray have used number ranges in their initial forecast. They say they will list specific numbers in their next update, in April.

The CSU forecasts are based on 58 years of data on hurricanes and air and water conditions in the Atlantic basin. They claim their system has correctly forecast above- or below-average seasons in 44 of those 58 years.

Time will tell. In the meantime, here's an interesting take on the surprising amount of Maryland damage done by Ida, the Gulf hurricane remnants that stalked the U.S. East Coast in November. That's the Calvert County shoreline of the Chesapeake above, where a storm surge driven by Ida's passage eroded many feet of beach.

(Photo by Karl Hille, for NASA)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The Atlantic hurricane season ends quietly today, with no lingering activity anywhere in the basin.

NOAA says it was the slowest season since 1997 in terms of the number of named storms and hurricanes.  

The final tally? Nine named storms (Ana through Ida), of which three became hurricanes. Two of those made it to "major" status of Category 3 (111 mph winds) or higher. There were also two tropical depressions that never became strong enough to earn a name.

The big players were Hurricanes Bill, Fred and Ida

Bill grew to Cat. 4. It was linked to two deaths - a 54-year-old man who died in storm surf in Florida, and a 7-year-old Maine girl who was swept from rocks at Acadia National Park by a storm wave.

Fred impressed only the meteorologists. It stayed far out in the eastern Atlantic and blew up to Cat. 3 before it expired. It turned out to be the strongest hurricane on record south of 30 degrees North latitude, and east of 35 degrees West longitude, and only the fourth known storm to reach Cat. 3 in that part of the Atlantic. But hardly anyone noticed.

Ida killed more than 150 people in El Salvador alone before it moved from the northwest Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico. It reached Cat. 2 strength over the Gulf, but went ashore in northwest Florida as a tropical depression. Its remnants contributed to a destructive low that formed off the southeast Atlantic coast. The resulting three-day nor'easter caused significant flooding and beach erosion from the Carolinas to New Jersey, including Maryland.

Ida was blamed when three New Jersey fishermen perished as their boat sank in rough seas. Three motorists died in weather-related crashes in Virginia. A 36-year-old surfer died in rough waves in New York, and an elderly man died in North Carolina when a tree fell on him in his yard.

While two storms brought tropical-storm-force winds to the U.S. mainland, no one experienced hurricane winds. It was the first time in three years that's happened, NOAA said.

So how did the prognosticators do? The season proved less active than the springtime predictions had suggested. Most forecasters guessed high based on long-range cyclical factors in the Atlantic that have boosted storm formation since 1995. But they lowered their expectations as a developing El Nino event in the tropical Pacific promised to suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic. The season turned out to be below the long-term averages.

Here's the scorecard, based on the spring forecasts:

Average:  11 named storms; 6 hurricanes; 2 "major" storms. 

Actual: 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 "major" storms.

NOAA (May forecast): 9-14 named storms; 4-7 hurricanes; 1-3 "major."

Colorado State U. (April):  12 named storms; 6 hurricanes; 2 "major."

WeatherBug (April): 11-13 named storms; 6-8 hurricanes; 3-4 "major."

AccuWeather.com (March): 13 named storms; 8 hurricanes; 2 "major."

The first long-range forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will likely come in December, from the folks at Colorado State University.

(AP PHOTO/Vernon Ogrodnek/Ida's remnants rake Ocean City, N.J.)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

While we watch the Atlantic hurricane season wheeze to a close, the Pacific continues to be a fearsome storm factory.

Up next is Typhoon Nida, left, now 150 miles west southwest of the U.S. territory of Guam. The storm has reached Cat. 5 strength, a Super Typhoon. Top sustained winds are blowing at 172 mph.

For now, no large land masses are threatened, although a number of small islands near Saipan are being affected. Here's more on Nida from NASA. 

Here's a forecast map from the Navy. Here's the forecast discussion.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

An increasingly disorganized Ida weakened to tropical storm force overnight, but continues to pose a significant threat to the Gulf Coast and inland regions of the Southeastern U.S.

After landfall, the storm could reform off Cape Hatteras as an Atlantic coastal storm, bringing rain, wind, heavy surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding to shore communities from the Carolinas to New Jersey, forecasters say.

The biggest immediate worry is probably heavy rain and flooding in an area of the Deep South that has already seen more than enough rain this fall.

As Ida's center moves toward land Monday, wind shear is sending the heavy precipitation onshore well ahead of the surface low. Rainfall along the Gulf Coast today will likely total 3 to 6 inches, with some locations receiving as much as 8, forecasters said.

Once the storm's center finally reaches shore, high winds will bring water levels 3 to 5 feet above normal along the Gulf near and to the east of landfall, all compounded by large and destructive waves. 

Winds, meanwhile, have diminished. The storm's top sustained winds were "just" 70 mph at last check. All hurricane watches and warnings have been dropped. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place from Grande Isle, La. to the Aucilla River, Fla. New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain are included in the warning area.

Here is the latest advisory for Ida. Here is the forecast discussion. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. Ida may already have played a role in the heavy rains and mudslides that killed more than 120 people in El Salvador over the weekend.

AccuWeather.com's Alex Sosnowski, meanwhile, is looking ahead a few days. He says Ida's energy could reorganize off the Atlantic coast after mid-week, taking on the proportions of a strong nor'easter. That would mean gusty onshore winds, large swells, rough surf and coastal flooding for interests from Hatteras to the Jersey Shore, including Maryland and Delaware beaches.

"The angry sea will lead to strong and frequent rip currents," Sosnowski said. "Bathers are advised to avoid the water from Wednesday into the weekend." Likewise, small craft operators should stay in port from Florida to Long Island, at least until Friday.

Baltimore's forecast calls for a chance of showers Tuesday through Thursday.

As they depart, Ida's remnants are expected to draw cold air into the region, dropping daytime highs from the low 70s, which are expected to go today, to the 50s by the latter half of the week. "The threat of heavy snow with this event has diminished," he adds, "since the storm will quickly migrate to the coast."

Mr. Foot, take note.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Just when you thought we'd slipped by without a late-season hurricane this fall, Hurricane Ida puffs up and appears to be headed for the northern Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center has posted Hurricane Watches from Grand Isle, La. to the Alabama, Mississippi state line. There are flood warnings up for New Orleans, which is expected to get heavy rain. The Hurricane Watches mean hurricane conditions could develop within 36 hours, although forecasters do expect the storm will begin to lose its tropical characteristics Tuesday as it nears the Gulf Coast and experiences wind shear and cooler waters. Some chance remains, however, that it could still be a tropical storm at that point.

The storm at last check was about 75 miles northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and about the same distance southwest of the western tip of Cuba. The storm is moving through the Yucatan Channel, and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Top sustained winds are estimated at near 90 mph, making Ida a Cat. 1 storm.

UPDATE: Ida has strengthened today to a Cat. 2 storm, with top sustained winds of almost 100 mph. The watches have been extended farther east along the Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center's advisory includes the following:

"RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS."

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Weakened to tropical depression status and somewhat disrupted by its passage over parts of eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, Ida is continuing to drop life-threatening rain over the Central American countries. But the storm is expected to move back over water late today, into the northwest Caribbean, and on toward the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are getting conflicting predictions from their computer models and other guides. But the guesswork seems to be settling on a storm track into the central Gulf by early next week, with a likely curve toward Florida.

Although there is at least one model forecasting the storm will regain hurricane force, the NHC seems to be holding Ida's redevelopment to tropical storm force for the moment, citing continuing wind shear in the region and cooler waters in the Gulf.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast discussion. Here is the forecast storm track, and here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Storm Ida became the season's third hurricane overnight, with top sustained winds of 75 mph. The storm moved onshore on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, some 60 miles north of the town of Bluefields, and was expected to weaken over land. But forecasters are still predicting Ida will move back over water into the northwest Caribbean and restrengthen.

UPDATE: 1 p.m. EST. Ida was downgraded today to a tropical storm.

The storm is producing heavy rains, with 5 to 7 inches likely in most locations, and as much as 20 to 25 inches possible in some spots. Those conditions would produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides.

While there remained some possibility the storm will dissipate while over land, the forecast storm track still has Ida moving into the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, at tropical storm strength, posing some risk for the Gulf Coast of the U.S. 

Here is the latest advisory for Ida. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center is tracking the 11th tropical depression to form this season in the Atlantic basin. The 2009 hurricane season officially ends at the end of this month.

The new storm, designated Tropical Depression 11, got its act together Tuesday in the southwestern Caribbean, and now threatens the Nicaraguan coast and offshore islands with torrential rains and 35-mph winds. It may well become the season's ninth tropical storm - Ida - later today.

UPDATE: 4 p.m. TD 11 became Tropical Storm Ida this afternoon. Top sustained winds are at 60-mph, with higher gusts. Some further intensification is likely before landfall in Nicaragua. Rainfall as high as 20 or 25 inches are possible in some locations, raising the danger of flooding and mudslides.

Forecasters think the storm will weaken as it goes ashore, and crosses over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. But it is expected to head north, move back over the northwest Caribbean and regain tropical storm strength as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico next week. One computer model even has it reaching hurricane strength.

TD 11 was located this morning about 125 miles east southeast of Bluefields, a former buccaneer hideout on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. It was moving toward the northwest at about 8 mph.

Here is the latest advisory on TD 11. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Pity poor Henri. The eighth tropical storm of the 2009 season formed Tuesday in the Atlantic, and puffed up a bit, with top sustained winds reaching 50 mph. But almost immediately the storm began to weaken as it drifted closer to the northern Leeward Islands.

This morning, Henri was downgraded to a tropical depression, with top winds of barely 35 mph. And forecasters expect the storm will dissipate later today, and become just another tropical low skirting the northernmost islands of the Caribbean.

That's good news for residents, mariners and vacationers, of course. The 2009 season continues to prove a relatively mild one for the region, thanks in large measure to the El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which tend to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

Here is what may well be the final advisory on Henri. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Henri, which formed yesterday in the Atlantic, was a bit stronger Wednesday morning. But the forecast still calls for the storm to weaken and dissipate by tomorrow.

The storm's top sustained winds increased from 40 to 50 mph early today, but have since faded a bit to 45. The forecast storm track takes Henri toward the west northwest at 15 mph. At last check it was about 375 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Here is the latest advisory on Henri. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Henri is the dense little patch of purple in the water vapor image above. To the south and east is a diffuse area of showers that also is being watched by NHC forecasters. It is given less than a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

That's "ahn-Ree" for you non-French-speakers. Tropical Storm Henri formed today in the Atlantic Ocean, the eighth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Henri is centered about 600 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Top sustained winds are only about 40 mph, just above minimal tropical storm strength. The storm is moving toward the west northwest at 18 mph.

The forecast storm track takes Henri in the general direction of the southeast U. S. coast, but the storm is not expected to make it that far, at least not as a tropical storm. Forecasters say it will likely weaken into a "remnant low" in the next two days.

Here is the latest advisory on Henri. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Back on the job this morning after a weekend break for a wedding in Ocean City. (Note to self: Yes, you can get a sunburn in October; wear sunblock), and a hectic Monday chasing Nobel prize winners and cramming for a story on telomeres.

Somehow, during that brief period, the 2009 season's seventh named tropical storm puffed to life in the northeastern Atlantic, and was swallowed up by a frontal system headed for the British Isles.

The storm was Grace, an oddball that formed near the Azores - on the latitude of New York City - hardly tropical, some would argue. Too far north to catch the east-to-west Trade Winds for a ride across the Atlantic, Grace drifted north and east.

The first advisory for Grace was issued on Sunday. Top sustained winds reached almost 70 mph on Monday, but began to slow after that as the storm raced off to the north northeast. The National Hurricane Center issued the last advisory on Grace late Monday night.

Here is AccuWeather.com's take on the rain and wind headed for Ireland and the UK. ,

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

September is, statistically at least, the peak of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. But this year has been notably anemic.  We were busier in August.

Only two named storms cropped up during the month that ends tonight, compared with four in August. Tropical Storm Erika formed east of the Leeward Islands on Sept. 1, drifted westward for three days and wheezed to an end southeast of the Dominican Republic. Winds peaked at about 60 mph., and the storm dumped a lot of rain on the islands. 

Fred was a bit more impressive. It formed Sept. 7 and blew up to hurricane force before expiring Sept. 12 near where it was born in the far eastern Atlantic. Fred was only the second hurricane of the season.

Tropical Depression 8 formed briefly on Sept. 25, but fell apart the next day without growing strong enough to earn a name.

Jeff Masters, on his Wunder Blog, is calling this the quietest September in the Atlantic since 1997. 

In all this season, the Atlantic Basin has generated just six named storms, including two - Bill and Fred - that reached hurricane force. In fact, both Bill (Aug. 15-24) and Fred reached "major" (Cat. 3) strength.

The U.S. mainland has been spared. Tropical Storm Claudette, in mid-August, stirred things up along the Florida/Alabama Gulf Shore. Bill kicked up a lot of wind and waves along the Atlantic coast all the way to the Canadian Maritimes before expiring in the Atlantic. The photo above shows Ocean City, N.J. beachgoers getting a briefing on Bill-caused rip currents. 

Danny did the same in the Carolinas late in the month before being absorbed by a frontal system. But that was about it, to the relief of millions. 

Hurricane forecasters have been lowering their expectations all season, pointing to the moderate El Nino conditions developing in the Pacific Ocean. El Ninos tend to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

Back in late May, for example, Colorado State University prognosticators William Gray and Phil Klotzbach forecast 11 names storms, with five predicted to become hurricanes, and two that would reach "major" proportions.

In June, the National Hurricane Center expected 9 to 14 named storms, with four to seven hurricanes one to three "major" storms.  

By August, CSU had cut its forecast to 10 names storms, with four hurricanes, two reaching major status. The feds were by then looking for seven to 10 named storms, with three to six hurricanes, one to two becoming major.

Give them credit. We have seen two major hurricanes. And we could still see some additional activity. But there is nothing happening in the tropics at the moment. 

(Top, AP Photo/Jim Gerberich; Bottom, SUN PHOTO/John Makely/Surfing Isabel's waves in Ocean City, Md., 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Depression No. 8 has formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Hurricane Center. It could become the season's seventh named storm - Grace - later today or tomorrow.

But conditions are not favorable for the storm's continued growth. Once again, strong wind shear aloft is expected to cut this disturbance down to size. 

The storm is 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, with top sustained winds of just 35 mph. It is moving northwest at 14 mph and poses no immediate threat to land. And from the look of the forecast track, never will. 

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Once-a-Hurricane Fred, which never posed a threat to land, has stalled far out in the Atlantic and fizzled to below tropical storm force. The National Hurricane Center today issued its final advisory on the storm.

Fred formed in the far eastern Atlantic on Sept. 7, and by late the next day had reached hurricane strength. It soon became the second major (Category 3) hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic season. It's top sustained winds reached 115 mph at one point.

But the storm never seemed to get into gear, and drifted slowly at sea for several days before finally fading. It still has something of its spiral shape (above), but has now lost its central convection - the engine that drives hurricanes - and been demoted to a weak "remnant low" posing a threat only to shipping.

The hurricane center, meanwhile, is watching some rainy non-tropical weather in the Gulf of Mexico, and a poorly organized low coming off West Africa.

Here is the final advisory on Fred. Here is the storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Storm Fred became a hurricane overnight, the second of the season, getting much better organized and doubling its top sustained winds to around 105 mph - Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It's promising to get even stronger today.

But forecasters at the National Hurricane Center don't hold out much hope this storm will survive for long as a hurricane. It's about to run into southwesterly wind shear, drier air and cooler waters to the north. That will throw a wrench into the works, with rapid weakening to follow. And it's not likely to make it to our side of the Atlantic, either.

Fred was about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands this morning, in the far eastern Atlantic.  

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

That tropical depression in the far eastern Atlantic became Tropical Storm Fred overnight, with top sustained winds of 50 mph. Fred is expected to reach hurricane strength in the next few days, but steering winds in the region suggest it will not make it across the ocean to threaten the U.S. or the West Indies.

Here is the latest advisory on Fred. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Storm Erika was hanging on to its tropical storm status as it stumbled through the northern Leeward Islands Thursday morning. But only just barely.

UPDATE: 4:50 p.m.: A weakening Erika has finally been downgraded to a tropical depression, and all tropical storm watches and warnings have been discontinued. While top winds have slowed to 35 mph, heavy rains are still forecast for the region. The earlier post follows:

The slow-moving storm's top sustained winds were still around 40 mph, but those winds extended far from the storm's hard-to-pinpoint center, by as much as 175 miles in the eastern quadrant.

So, Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the northern Leewards, and were extended westward to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this morning. But the biggest threat from this storm for now will likely be heavy rain. Forecasters said Erika could drop 3 to 5 inches across the region, with as much as 8 inches in some places.

Erika's problem has been wind shear - high-level winds out of the southwest that are cutting off the storm's cloud tops and choking off its ability to spin up and grow. It's a factor that is especially pronounced in El Nino years like this one, and limits the number and strength of Atlantic storms. The storm also faces drier air ahead, and interference from island land masses in its path.

The storm's center Thursday morning was 200 miles east southeast of Puerto Rico, moving to the west northwest at about 8 mph.

Here is the latest advisory on Erika. Here is the forecast storm track, which shows further weakening as it moves toward the Bahamas early next week.  Here is the view from space.

In the meantime, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center have begun watching a new tropical wave that's coming off the coast of West Africa. This one looks pretty strong, but for now it is given less than a 30 percent chance of becoming a new tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The season's fifth named storm has formed in the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center reported Tuesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Erika has top sustained winds of 50 mph, with slow strengthening predicted. The storm's center is 390 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west northwest at 9 mph. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the northern Leeward Islands.

Here is the latest advisory on Erika. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Erika seems to be following nearly the same path as Hurricanes Bill and Danny before her. Both of those storms swept north of the Bahamas and passed between the Carolina coast and Bermuda before curving north, then northeast and expiring in the North Atlantic. 

Forecasters say the storm may strengthen for a time, but faces increased wind shear in a couple of days, and that's likely to weaken Erika's power. Such high-level winds are stronger in El Nino years like this one, and are forecast to limit the number and power of this year's storms.  

But computer models disagree on how much shear will hobble Erika. Here's the hurricane center's thinking:

"THE NHC FORECAST
WILL SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN
WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR TAKES OVER. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
BE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS OF NOTE THAT ALMOST ALL OF
THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW ERIKA EVENTUALLY BECOMING A
HURRICANE...DESPITE THE SHEAR."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

A powerful Hurricane Jimena was bearing down on Mexico's Baja Peninsula Tuesday with top sustained winds of 145 mph, 5 to 10 inches of rain and a big storm surge. Mass evacuations were ordered and anyone with property in the resort towns should be watching events in the region with grave concern.

There should be particular concern for Mexico's poor, who will surely suffer the most from this storm. 

Here is the latest advisory on Jimena. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Hurricane watches and Warnings were posted for the entire southern half of the peninsula. And the storm track appears to carry the storm's remnants, as a tropical depression, across the peninsula and the Gulf of California, into Arizona by Sunday.

The Southwestern U.S. - especially California but also central Arizona - has been unusually dry, with moderate or severe drought in portions of both states. But too much rain in too short a time may produce more problems than solutions.

The more immediate worries are for people and property in Baja California, which will feel the worst of Jimena's wind, rain and storm surge.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

While the East Coast watched Tropical Storm Danny fizzle in the Atlantic last week, Hurricane Jimena was spinning up to Category 4 force in the eastern Pacific. The 145-mph storm is now bearing down on Cabo St. Lucas and Baja California.

The National Hurricane Center is calling the storm "extremely dangerous,"  and has posted Hurricane Watches for the southern tip of the Baja peninsula, including the popular resorts at Cabo.

"JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JIMENA LATER
TODAY."

Jimena is a relatively small storm, with hurricane force winds extending only
about 30 miles from its center. But it is powerful, with a central pressure of just 27.76 inches. High winds are expected to be the biggest worry for the resorts and communities in the region. The threat has already sent West Coast cruise ships scurrying for calmer waters.

Here is the latest advisory on Jimena. Here is the forecast storm track. (Wouldn't it be nice if Jimena's rains could help fire fighters battling wildfires in Southern California?) And here is the view from space.

The eastern Pacific has had a busier season so far than the Atlantic. Jimena is the 10th named storm of the 2009 season. And Kevin, the 11th, is close behind Jimena.

In the Atlantic, meanwhile, a tropical low now about 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands (below) is given a greater-than-50 percent chance of becoming the fifth named storm of the Atlantic season - Erika - in the next 48 hours.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Poor Danny. The fourth tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic season has been torn apart and absorbed by a low-pressure system along the cold front pressing in from the west, in the Carolinas. The storm has lost its tropical characteristics. Its winds have dropped below tropical storm force, and the National Hurricane Center has dropped all TS watches and warnings.

So much for Danny. But for the record, all the storm's moisture is being drawn into the frontal low - now a tropical depression - which will mean plenty of rain and humidity for everyone in its path.

What's left of Danny was centered about 80 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras Saturday morning, with top sustained winds of 35 mph. The "extratropical low" was expected to accelerate to the north northeast, and then the northeast at 30 to 35 mph.

Here is the final advisory on Danny. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

The mid-Atlantic is not totally out of the woods on this thing yet. Rough surf and rip currents remain a hazard. Here is a bit of this morning's Coastal Flood Statement from Wakefield, Va.:

"DANGEROUS LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELLS...GENERATED FROM WHAT WAS
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. BREAKING WAVES
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT. AS A RESULT OF
THE MODERATE WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SWELL...A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT."

Here's the gray and soggy forecast for Ocean City.

Staying home won't improve the forecast much. Baltimore can expect another gray, wet day today, too. The risk of more heavy rains appears to be waning, at least. Here's the forecast. And here is the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

We've ready had 1.5 inches here on the WeatherDeck since Thursday. Ditto for the airport. Here are some rain totals for the last 24 hours across Maryland. Some locations reported more than 2 inches. Forest Heights, in PG County, topped 3 inches.

Sunday's forecast here looks better, with a bit of sunshine and no rain predicted. But the rest of the week looks more iffy, with at least some rain chances every day as we remain stuck beneath a stalled cold front. Temperatures, at least will be cooler - in the 70s.

Want a pleasant AND sunny week? Head for the beaches at Presque Isle, in Erie, Pa (above).

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Storm Danny still had not managed to pull itself together into a proper spiral Friday morning. And the central pressure in the storm (29.77 in.) wasn't much lower than the pressure out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville  (29.99 in.)

Maximum sustained winds at the storm's center were barely 40 mph, only a few mph above falling back to the status of tropical depression. Here's some interesting discussion of Danny's troubles from the National Hurricane Center.

But Danny continues to move toward the Outer Banks, and its winds and waves will remain a threat to swimmers and boating along the mid-Atlantic Coast this weekend. Here is a bit of the forecast advisory this morning:

"LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS."

Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for the Outer Banks. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Maryland's offshore waters.  Here is the latest advisory for Danny. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

While we slept .... assuming you could sleep with all the thunder and lightning ... the Baltimore region was visited by some impressive thunderstorms. We clocked 1.18 inches of rain on the WeatherDeck. The NWS instruments at BWI-Marshall recorded 1.4 inches.

Towson and Sykesville both reported an impressive 2.89 inches. Many locations across Central Maryland reported more than an inch of rain overnight. Here are some other measurements from the CoCoRaHS network.

The storms caused some flooding, and did some damage to trees and electrical lines. Here is the link to the NWS tally of storm damage reports. (Be sure to click on earlier versions for more reports.) And here is the tally of BGE power outages, which don't seem to have been too extensive.

With all that rain, the ground is pretty well saturated, forecasts say. And the forecast calls for continuing showers and storms today. So, the National Weather Service has posted Flash Flood Watches across the region from 2 p.m. Friday until late Friday night.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

That tropical disturbance in the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico has strengthened to tropical storm force and earned the name Danny. Forecasters say it will likely become a hurricane by this weekend, brush the Carolina coast and be off the Delmarva peninsula by Saturday morning.

Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the new storm.

The fourth named storm of the season was packing top sustained winds of 45 mph, with some slow strengthening expected in the next few days. At 73 mph it would become a Category 1 hurricane, the second of the season.

At 11 a.m. Wednesday the storm's center was reported to be 775 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, moving toward the west northwest at 18 mph. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track map takes the storm to a position just off the Outer Banks by early Saturday, where it is expected to be at hurricane strength.

Here's the Ocean City forecast, calling for wet and breezy weather for the weekend.

Here is the current advisory on Danny. The 11 a.m. Weds. forecast map is above. And here is the view from orbit.

Meanwhile, there is a new disturbance gathering steam off the west coast of Africa.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The tropical disturbance north of the island of Puerto Rico continues to grow and become better organized, and forecasters now give it a better-than-even chance to become a tropical storm - Danny - in the next 48 hours.

The 2 p.m. (Tuesday) advisory places stormy weather about 300 miles north of San Juan, moving toward the west northwest at around 20 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft were scheduled to fly through the storm Tuesday afternoon to gather more data on its development.

Here's the view from orbit.

The first land mass likely to feel the effects of the bad weather would be the Bahamas. Those with interests in the islands were advised to follow the storm's progress.

From there, steering winds would take it on toward the southeastern U.S. coast by Friday, although most models predict it would curve to the north, and then northeast sometime before making landfall on the coast. Dangerous rip currents seem likely to persist, however, even under this scenario.

NWS forecasters at Sterling don't seem especially concerned about this storm, noting that a cold front due here from the west later this week would tend to push the tropical low away from the coast. Just how close it gets remains a matter of debate among the computer models. Here's a bit of the forecasters' discussion this afternoon:

"TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DEPENDS ON TIMING OF
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST... 00Z EURO [a computer forecast model] /DESPITE HAVING A SLOWER SOLUTION FOR THE TC [tropical cyclone]/ SUGGESTS A TRACK NEARER THE MID-ATLANTIC THAN THE GFS [another model]. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM /NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT AT THIS TIME/ AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEEKEND WITH MOIST SWLY/SLY [southwesterly or southerly] FLOW.

"COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING AUTUMNAL-LIKE CANADIAN
AIRMASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC."

That last note will be welcomed by teachers and students as classes resume for most school systems next week. No need to worry about sweltering in un-airconditioned schools. Look for highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

It's only a batch of rain and thunderstorms for now, but forecasters at the National Hurricane Center give it a 30 to 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. And two forecast models predict the storm will be just off Cape Hatteras by Friday. 

The bad weather is now a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving west northwest at 20 to 25 mph. If it does manage to reach tropical storm strength, it would become Tropical Storm Danny.

Forecast models placing it near Hatteras by the end of the week indicate it would be moving toward the northeast by then, curving away from the Mid-Atlantic coast. But we could see some impact along the beaches like that we experienced with Hurricane Bill.

Speaking of Bill, the first and so far only hurricane of the season is no longer a hurricane. The storm is headed our across the Atlantic to make trouble for shipping and Scotland.

In the meantime, have you read about the 7-year-old killed when waves driven by the storm swept spectators from rocks along the Maine coast? Others were badly injured. This is why they issue storm warnings. These people should never have been that close to the water. A Florida man also died in storm-whipped surf.

Don't fool with these storms. They are killers.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Just-barely-a-hurricane Bill is skirting the coastline of maritime Canada Sunday afternoon, its top sustained winds at about 80 mph. The storm is headed for the open Atlantic by Monday morning, and the storm track takes it to Scotland by Wednesday morning.

By then it will be just a bad storm off the Atlantic, having lost its tropical characteristics. For now, it remains a minimal Category 1 hurricane. Tropical storm warnings and a hurricane watch remained in effect Sunday afternoon for portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Here is the latest forecast advisory. Here is the predicted storm track. And here is the view from space.

Out-of-the-blue weather question of the day: What is the odd hurricane-related headline on the copy of the New York Post held by Frank Sinatra in the movie "The Manchurian Candidate?" Glory and honor to the first person with the first correct answer.

We have a winner already! Molly Williams, of Maine, emailed me at 5:40 pm Sunday with the answer:

"VIOLENT HURRICANE SWEEPS MIDWEST; 20 DEAD, HUNDREDS HOMELESS"

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Residents - sitting Presidents included - of Cape Cod and the islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket are under tropical storm warnings today as Hurricane Bill spins northward off the U.S. East Coast.

Bill remains a 105-mph Category 2 storm, and its winds are producing heavy surf and rip currents along the southeastern coast of the U.S. Those surf conditions will extend northward today and tomorrow. Here's a web cam view of the surf from the Kite Loft at Ocean City. Looks a bit frothy already. Here's the beach forecast.

Bill's position this morning was about 410 miles east of Cape Hatteras, moving northward at 22 mph. It was due off the New England coast tonight, accelerating toward the Canadian Maritime provinces on Sunday. 

Here is the forecast for Nantucket. The tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions - winds over 39 mph - are expected within 24 hours.

Here is the latest advisory for Bill. Here is the forecast storm track, which places the storm's remnants in Ireland by mid-week.  And here is the view from orbit. 

(SUN PHOTO/Robert F. Kniesche/Hurricane Edna/Ocean City, Sept. 1954)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Bill weakened a bit more overnight, with top sustained winds falling to 115 mph amid increasing disorder in its central structure. But the storm remained a Category 3 powerhouse and a continuing threat to both Bermuda and the eastern beaches of the U.S. The Canadian Maritime Provinces were also on alert.

The storm's center this morning was about 800 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, moving to the northwest at 17 mph. Its course was expected to shift to the north northwest today, and to the north by tomorrow as the storm curves around the Bermuda/Azores high to the east, and in the face of the jet stream and cold front moving into the eastern seaboard to the west. Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the atmospheric mechanics steering the storm.

Forecasters say Bill lost some of its classic organization overnight, but could regain some strength over warmer Gulf Stream waters between the Carolinas and Bermuda. You can see in satellite images that the storm lost its open "eye."  We can probably blame wind shear for that - the high altitude winds that cut off the tops of the thunderstorms that fuel the storm. Its this kind of shear that becomes more pronounced in El Nino years like this one and make it harder for Atlantic hurricanes to form and hold together.

Here is the latest advisory on Bill. Here is the forecast track, 

Tropical storm warnings and a hurricane watch remain in effect for Bermuda. Forecasters are also continuing to warn beachgoers about the danger of heavy surf and rip currents along the East Coast this weekend as Bill passes by. The hazard will be enhanced by high astronomical tides, since we are near the time of the new moon.

"RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIFE-THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS WITH OUTGOING TIDES WHICH IMPROVE RIP CURRENT FORMATION.
ALL BEACH GOERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF INHERENT DANGERS WHEN
ENTERING THE SURF INCLUDING SWIFT LONGSHORE CURRENTS...POUNDING
SHORE BREAK AND SHALLOW SAND BARS."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Bill continues to spin its way toward the U.S. east coast Thursday night, with forecasters promising that a turn north by Saturday will spare us all a collision with this picture-perfect Category 3 storm.

Bermuda is now under a tropical storm watch and a hurricane warning as the storm passes to the west of the island. Here is the forecast for the island paradise.

Here is the latest forecast advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. The view from orbit is above.

AccuWeather.com has a piece on the potential US impact if the storm veers slightly west of the forecast track.

In any event, forecasters are warning of rip currents and dangerous surf all along the east coast this weekend as this powerful storm passes offshore. Please be careful out there.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Bill took a breather overnight, dropping 10 mph from its top sustained winds and falling back to Category 3 status - still a "major" storm, but with top winds of "only" 125 mph.

That may change in the coming days as the storm moves back over warmer waters between the Carolinas and Bermuda. Bill is expected to restrengthen, but there is no significant change in its forecast track.

The National Hurricane Center warns that large swells created by the storm should begin reaching the U.S. coast on Friday and Saturday. That will mean heavy surf and the risk of dangerous rip currents. Here is word from the NWS's Ocean City forecast:

"A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUILDING LONG PERIOD SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH OUR WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THOSE HEADED TO AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND ARE ADVISED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION...AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SURF ZONE FORECAST"

Here is the latest forecast advisory for Bill. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Bill swirled up to Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale while we slept. The storm's top sustained winds are now near 135 mph as it moves toward the west northwest at 16 mph.

That makes Bill the first hurricane and the first "major" hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic season. The good news is that Bill does not appear to pose a threat to the East Coast, aside from rip currents and heavy surf as the storm track takes it between the Carolina coast and Bermuda.

Bill is expected to strengthen some in the next few days.

Here is the latest forecast advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

If the forecasts hold up, Hurricane Bill will become a major storm today. But the forecast tracks suggest the tempest will veer northward before reaching the U.S. mainland. That would make Bill a threat to Bermuda, and to shipping. But its biggest impact on the U.S. east coast would be in the form of big surf and rip currents. More on that from AccuWeather.com

Bill is still far out in the Atlantic, 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It's headed west northwest at 17 mph, with top sustained winds of about 100 mph. Bill was forecast to become a Cat. 3 "major" storm today, with top winds of 111 mph or more on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

Here is the latest advisory on Bill. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The second named storm of the 2009 season has grown into a minimal hurricane, the season's first, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Bill now sports top sustained winds of 75 mph as it churns across the Atlantic. While it is still far east of any landmass, Bill is expected to continue to strengthen, reaching Category 3 on the Safif-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity in the next few days, with top sustained winds fo 155 mph.

Here is the latest advisory on Bill. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Claudette (map above) has come ashore in the panhandle of Florida, where it has begun to weaken. High winds and heavy rains are the main story down there. The storm's remnants are expected to drop 3 to 6 inches of rain - and in spots up to 10 inches - along a path through Alabama, Mississippi, and reaching inland as far as Tennessee in the next few days.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. And here is the forecast for Montgomery, Alabama.

Finally, what was once Tropical Storm Ana remains badly disorganized in the northeastern Caribbean. But the depression remains a heavy rain threat to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

In the meantime, our forecast continues to call for more hot, humid, summery weather, with highs near 90 degrees for the rest of the week. Rain won't become a factor for another day or two. And we won't see a break from the heat until the weekend. Sticky.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes