An increasingly disorganized Ida weakened to tropical storm force overnight, but continues to pose a significant threat to the Gulf Coast and inland regions of the Southeastern U.S.

After landfall, the storm could reform off Cape Hatteras as an Atlantic coastal storm, bringing rain, wind, heavy surf, beach erosion and coastal flooding to shore communities from the Carolinas to New Jersey, forecasters say.

The biggest immediate worry is probably heavy rain and flooding in an area of the Deep South that has already seen more than enough rain this fall.

As Ida's center moves toward land Monday, wind shear is sending the heavy precipitation onshore well ahead of the surface low. Rainfall along the Gulf Coast today will likely total 3 to 6 inches, with some locations receiving as much as 8, forecasters said.

Once the storm's center finally reaches shore, high winds will bring water levels 3 to 5 feet above normal along the Gulf near and to the east of landfall, all compounded by large and destructive waves. 

Winds, meanwhile, have diminished. The storm's top sustained winds were "just" 70 mph at last check. All hurricane watches and warnings have been dropped. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place from Grande Isle, La. to the Aucilla River, Fla. New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain are included in the warning area.

Here is the latest advisory for Ida. Here is the forecast discussion. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. Ida may already have played a role in the heavy rains and mudslides that killed more than 120 people in El Salvador over the weekend.

AccuWeather.com's Alex Sosnowski, meanwhile, is looking ahead a few days. He says Ida's energy could reorganize off the Atlantic coast after mid-week, taking on the proportions of a strong nor'easter. That would mean gusty onshore winds, large swells, rough surf and coastal flooding for interests from Hatteras to the Jersey Shore, including Maryland and Delaware beaches.

"The angry sea will lead to strong and frequent rip currents," Sosnowski said. "Bathers are advised to avoid the water from Wednesday into the weekend." Likewise, small craft operators should stay in port from Florida to Long Island, at least until Friday.

Baltimore's forecast calls for a chance of showers Tuesday through Thursday.

As they depart, Ida's remnants are expected to draw cold air into the region, dropping daytime highs from the low 70s, which are expected to go today, to the 50s by the latter half of the week. "The threat of heavy snow with this event has diminished," he adds, "since the storm will quickly migrate to the coast."

Mr. Foot, take note.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Just when you thought we'd slipped by without a late-season hurricane this fall, Hurricane Ida puffs up and appears to be headed for the northern Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center has posted Hurricane Watches from Grand Isle, La. to the Alabama, Mississippi state line. There are flood warnings up for New Orleans, which is expected to get heavy rain. The Hurricane Watches mean hurricane conditions could develop within 36 hours, although forecasters do expect the storm will begin to lose its tropical characteristics Tuesday as it nears the Gulf Coast and experiences wind shear and cooler waters. Some chance remains, however, that it could still be a tropical storm at that point.

The storm at last check was about 75 miles northeast of Cozumel, Mexico, and about the same distance southwest of the western tip of Cuba. The storm is moving through the Yucatan Channel, and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Top sustained winds are estimated at near 90 mph, making Ida a Cat. 1 storm.

UPDATE: Ida has strengthened today to a Cat. 2 storm, with top sustained winds of almost 100 mph. The watches have been extended farther east along the Gulf Coast. The National Hurricane Center's advisory includes the following:

"RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS."

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Weakened to tropical depression status and somewhat disrupted by its passage over parts of eastern Nicaragua and Honduras, Ida is continuing to drop life-threatening rain over the Central American countries. But the storm is expected to move back over water late today, into the northwest Caribbean, and on toward the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are getting conflicting predictions from their computer models and other guides. But the guesswork seems to be settling on a storm track into the central Gulf by early next week, with a likely curve toward Florida.

Although there is at least one model forecasting the storm will regain hurricane force, the NHC seems to be holding Ida's redevelopment to tropical storm force for the moment, citing continuing wind shear in the region and cooler waters in the Gulf.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast discussion. Here is the forecast storm track, and here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Storm Ida became the season's third hurricane overnight, with top sustained winds of 75 mph. The storm moved onshore on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, some 60 miles north of the town of Bluefields, and was expected to weaken over land. But forecasters are still predicting Ida will move back over water into the northwest Caribbean and restrengthen.

UPDATE: 1 p.m. EST. Ida was downgraded today to a tropical storm.

The storm is producing heavy rains, with 5 to 7 inches likely in most locations, and as much as 20 to 25 inches possible in some spots. Those conditions would produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides.

While there remained some possibility the storm will dissipate while over land, the forecast storm track still has Ida moving into the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, at tropical storm strength, posing some risk for the Gulf Coast of the U.S. 

Here is the latest advisory for Ida. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center is tracking the 11th tropical depression to form this season in the Atlantic basin. The 2009 hurricane season officially ends at the end of this month.

The new storm, designated Tropical Depression 11, got its act together Tuesday in the southwestern Caribbean, and now threatens the Nicaraguan coast and offshore islands with torrential rains and 35-mph winds. It may well become the season's ninth tropical storm - Ida - later today.

UPDATE: 4 p.m. TD 11 became Tropical Storm Ida this afternoon. Top sustained winds are at 60-mph, with higher gusts. Some further intensification is likely before landfall in Nicaragua. Rainfall as high as 20 or 25 inches are possible in some locations, raising the danger of flooding and mudslides.

Forecasters think the storm will weaken as it goes ashore, and crosses over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. But it is expected to head north, move back over the northwest Caribbean and regain tropical storm strength as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico next week. One computer model even has it reaching hurricane strength.

TD 11 was located this morning about 125 miles east southeast of Bluefields, a former buccaneer hideout on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. It was moving toward the northwest at about 8 mph.

Here is the latest advisory on TD 11. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Pity poor Henri. The eighth tropical storm of the 2009 season formed Tuesday in the Atlantic, and puffed up a bit, with top sustained winds reaching 50 mph. But almost immediately the storm began to weaken as it drifted closer to the northern Leeward Islands.

This morning, Henri was downgraded to a tropical depression, with top winds of barely 35 mph. And forecasters expect the storm will dissipate later today, and become just another tropical low skirting the northernmost islands of the Caribbean.

That's good news for residents, mariners and vacationers, of course. The 2009 season continues to prove a relatively mild one for the region, thanks in large measure to the El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which tend to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

Here is what may well be the final advisory on Henri. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Henri, which formed yesterday in the Atlantic, was a bit stronger Wednesday morning. But the forecast still calls for the storm to weaken and dissipate by tomorrow.

The storm's top sustained winds increased from 40 to 50 mph early today, but have since faded a bit to 45. The forecast storm track takes Henri toward the west northwest at 15 mph. At last check it was about 375 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Here is the latest advisory on Henri. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Henri is the dense little patch of purple in the water vapor image above. To the south and east is a diffuse area of showers that also is being watched by NHC forecasters. It is given less than a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

That's "ahn-Ree" for you non-French-speakers. Tropical Storm Henri formed today in the Atlantic Ocean, the eighth named storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Henri is centered about 600 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Top sustained winds are only about 40 mph, just above minimal tropical storm strength. The storm is moving toward the west northwest at 18 mph.

The forecast storm track takes Henri in the general direction of the southeast U. S. coast, but the storm is not expected to make it that far, at least not as a tropical storm. Forecasters say it will likely weaken into a "remnant low" in the next two days.

Here is the latest advisory on Henri. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Back on the job this morning after a weekend break for a wedding in Ocean City. (Note to self: Yes, you can get a sunburn in October; wear sunblock), and a hectic Monday chasing Nobel prize winners and cramming for a story on telomeres.

Somehow, during that brief period, the 2009 season's seventh named tropical storm puffed to life in the northeastern Atlantic, and was swallowed up by a frontal system headed for the British Isles.

The storm was Grace, an oddball that formed near the Azores - on the latitude of New York City - hardly tropical, some would argue. Too far north to catch the east-to-west Trade Winds for a ride across the Atlantic, Grace drifted north and east.

The first advisory for Grace was issued on Sunday. Top sustained winds reached almost 70 mph on Monday, but began to slow after that as the storm raced off to the north northeast. The National Hurricane Center issued the last advisory on Grace late Monday night.

Here is AccuWeather.com's take on the rain and wind headed for Ireland and the UK. ,

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

September is, statistically at least, the peak of hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. But this year has been notably anemic.  We were busier in August.

Only two named storms cropped up during the month that ends tonight, compared with four in August. Tropical Storm Erika formed east of the Leeward Islands on Sept. 1, drifted westward for three days and wheezed to an end southeast of the Dominican Republic. Winds peaked at about 60 mph., and the storm dumped a lot of rain on the islands. 

Fred was a bit more impressive. It formed Sept. 7 and blew up to hurricane force before expiring Sept. 12 near where it was born in the far eastern Atlantic. Fred was only the second hurricane of the season.

Tropical Depression 8 formed briefly on Sept. 25, but fell apart the next day without growing strong enough to earn a name.

Jeff Masters, on his Wunder Blog, is calling this the quietest September in the Atlantic since 1997. 

In all this season, the Atlantic Basin has generated just six named storms, including two - Bill and Fred - that reached hurricane force. In fact, both Bill (Aug. 15-24) and Fred reached "major" (Cat. 3) strength.

The U.S. mainland has been spared. Tropical Storm Claudette, in mid-August, stirred things up along the Florida/Alabama Gulf Shore. Bill kicked up a lot of wind and waves along the Atlantic coast all the way to the Canadian Maritimes before expiring in the Atlantic. The photo above shows Ocean City, N.J. beachgoers getting a briefing on Bill-caused rip currents. 

Danny did the same in the Carolinas late in the month before being absorbed by a frontal system. But that was about it, to the relief of millions. 

Hurricane forecasters have been lowering their expectations all season, pointing to the moderate El Nino conditions developing in the Pacific Ocean. El Ninos tend to suppress hurricane formation in the Atlantic.

Back in late May, for example, Colorado State University prognosticators William Gray and Phil Klotzbach forecast 11 names storms, with five predicted to become hurricanes, and two that would reach "major" proportions.

In June, the National Hurricane Center expected 9 to 14 named storms, with four to seven hurricanes one to three "major" storms.  

By August, CSU had cut its forecast to 10 names storms, with four hurricanes, two reaching major status. The feds were by then looking for seven to 10 named storms, with three to six hurricanes, one to two becoming major.

Give them credit. We have seen two major hurricanes. And we could still see some additional activity. But there is nothing happening in the tropics at the moment. 

(Top, AP Photo/Jim Gerberich; Bottom, SUN PHOTO/John Makely/Surfing Isabel's waves in Ocean City, Md., 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:54 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Depression No. 8 has formed in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Hurricane Center. It could become the season's seventh named storm - Grace - later today or tomorrow.

But conditions are not favorable for the storm's continued growth. Once again, strong wind shear aloft is expected to cut this disturbance down to size. 

The storm is 500 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, with top sustained winds of just 35 mph. It is moving northwest at 14 mph and poses no immediate threat to land. And from the look of the forecast track, never will. 

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:34 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Once-a-Hurricane Fred, which never posed a threat to land, has stalled far out in the Atlantic and fizzled to below tropical storm force. The National Hurricane Center today issued its final advisory on the storm.

Fred formed in the far eastern Atlantic on Sept. 7, and by late the next day had reached hurricane strength. It soon became the second major (Category 3) hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic season. It's top sustained winds reached 115 mph at one point.

But the storm never seemed to get into gear, and drifted slowly at sea for several days before finally fading. It still has something of its spiral shape (above), but has now lost its central convection - the engine that drives hurricanes - and been demoted to a weak "remnant low" posing a threat only to shipping.

The hurricane center, meanwhile, is watching some rainy non-tropical weather in the Gulf of Mexico, and a poorly organized low coming off West Africa.

Here is the final advisory on Fred. Here is the storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Storm Fred became a hurricane overnight, the second of the season, getting much better organized and doubling its top sustained winds to around 105 mph - Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It's promising to get even stronger today.

But forecasters at the National Hurricane Center don't hold out much hope this storm will survive for long as a hurricane. It's about to run into southwesterly wind shear, drier air and cooler waters to the north. That will throw a wrench into the works, with rapid weakening to follow. And it's not likely to make it to our side of the Atlantic, either.

Fred was about 500 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands this morning, in the far eastern Atlantic.  

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

That tropical depression in the far eastern Atlantic became Tropical Storm Fred overnight, with top sustained winds of 50 mph. Fred is expected to reach hurricane strength in the next few days, but steering winds in the region suggest it will not make it across the ocean to threaten the U.S. or the West Indies.

Here is the latest advisory on Fred. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Storm Erika was hanging on to its tropical storm status as it stumbled through the northern Leeward Islands Thursday morning. But only just barely.

UPDATE: 4:50 p.m.: A weakening Erika has finally been downgraded to a tropical depression, and all tropical storm watches and warnings have been discontinued. While top winds have slowed to 35 mph, heavy rains are still forecast for the region. The earlier post follows:

The slow-moving storm's top sustained winds were still around 40 mph, but those winds extended far from the storm's hard-to-pinpoint center, by as much as 175 miles in the eastern quadrant.

So, Tropical Storm Warnings remained in effect for the northern Leewards, and were extended westward to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this morning. But the biggest threat from this storm for now will likely be heavy rain. Forecasters said Erika could drop 3 to 5 inches across the region, with as much as 8 inches in some places.

Erika's problem has been wind shear - high-level winds out of the southwest that are cutting off the storm's cloud tops and choking off its ability to spin up and grow. It's a factor that is especially pronounced in El Nino years like this one, and limits the number and strength of Atlantic storms. The storm also faces drier air ahead, and interference from island land masses in its path.

The storm's center Thursday morning was 200 miles east southeast of Puerto Rico, moving to the west northwest at about 8 mph.

Here is the latest advisory on Erika. Here is the forecast storm track, which shows further weakening as it moves toward the Bahamas early next week.  Here is the view from space.

In the meantime, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center have begun watching a new tropical wave that's coming off the coast of West Africa. This one looks pretty strong, but for now it is given less than a 30 percent chance of becoming a new tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The season's fifth named storm has formed in the Atlantic Ocean, the National Hurricane Center reported Tuesday afternoon.

Tropical Storm Erika has top sustained winds of 50 mph, with slow strengthening predicted. The storm's center is 390 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west northwest at 9 mph. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the northern Leeward Islands.

Here is the latest advisory on Erika. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Erika seems to be following nearly the same path as Hurricanes Bill and Danny before her. Both of those storms swept north of the Bahamas and passed between the Carolina coast and Bermuda before curving north, then northeast and expiring in the North Atlantic. 

Forecasters say the storm may strengthen for a time, but faces increased wind shear in a couple of days, and that's likely to weaken Erika's power. Such high-level winds are stronger in El Nino years like this one, and are forecast to limit the number and power of this year's storms.  

But computer models disagree on how much shear will hobble Erika. Here's the hurricane center's thinking:

"THE NHC FORECAST
WILL SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN
WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR TAKES OVER. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
BE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS OF NOTE THAT ALMOST ALL OF
THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW ERIKA EVENTUALLY BECOMING A
HURRICANE...DESPITE THE SHEAR."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

A powerful Hurricane Jimena was bearing down on Mexico's Baja Peninsula Tuesday with top sustained winds of 145 mph, 5 to 10 inches of rain and a big storm surge. Mass evacuations were ordered and anyone with property in the resort towns should be watching events in the region with grave concern.

There should be particular concern for Mexico's poor, who will surely suffer the most from this storm. 

Here is the latest advisory on Jimena. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Hurricane watches and Warnings were posted for the entire southern half of the peninsula. And the storm track appears to carry the storm's remnants, as a tropical depression, across the peninsula and the Gulf of California, into Arizona by Sunday.

The Southwestern U.S. - especially California but also central Arizona - has been unusually dry, with moderate or severe drought in portions of both states. But too much rain in too short a time may produce more problems than solutions.

The more immediate worries are for people and property in Baja California, which will feel the worst of Jimena's wind, rain and storm surge.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

While the East Coast watched Tropical Storm Danny fizzle in the Atlantic last week, Hurricane Jimena was spinning up to Category 4 force in the eastern Pacific. The 145-mph storm is now bearing down on Cabo St. Lucas and Baja California.

The National Hurricane Center is calling the storm "extremely dangerous,"  and has posted Hurricane Watches for the southern tip of the Baja peninsula, including the popular resorts at Cabo.

"JIMENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.  A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  JIMENA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JIMENA LATER
TODAY."

Jimena is a relatively small storm, with hurricane force winds extending only
about 30 miles from its center. But it is powerful, with a central pressure of just 27.76 inches. High winds are expected to be the biggest worry for the resorts and communities in the region. The threat has already sent West Coast cruise ships scurrying for calmer waters.

Here is the latest advisory on Jimena. Here is the forecast storm track. (Wouldn't it be nice if Jimena's rains could help fire fighters battling wildfires in Southern California?) And here is the view from space.

The eastern Pacific has had a busier season so far than the Atlantic. Jimena is the 10th named storm of the 2009 season. And Kevin, the 11th, is close behind Jimena.

In the Atlantic, meanwhile, a tropical low now about 600 miles east of the Leeward Islands (below) is given a greater-than-50 percent chance of becoming the fifth named storm of the Atlantic season - Erika - in the next 48 hours.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Poor Danny. The fourth tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic season has been torn apart and absorbed by a low-pressure system along the cold front pressing in from the west, in the Carolinas. The storm has lost its tropical characteristics. Its winds have dropped below tropical storm force, and the National Hurricane Center has dropped all TS watches and warnings.

So much for Danny. But for the record, all the storm's moisture is being drawn into the frontal low - now a tropical depression - which will mean plenty of rain and humidity for everyone in its path.

What's left of Danny was centered about 80 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras Saturday morning, with top sustained winds of 35 mph. The "extratropical low" was expected to accelerate to the north northeast, and then the northeast at 30 to 35 mph.

Here is the final advisory on Danny. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

The mid-Atlantic is not totally out of the woods on this thing yet. Rough surf and rip currents remain a hazard. Here is a bit of this morning's Coastal Flood Statement from Wakefield, Va.:

"DANGEROUS LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELLS...GENERATED FROM WHAT WAS
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. BREAKING WAVES
IN THE SURF ZONE ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FT. AS A RESULT OF
THE MODERATE WAVES AND LONG PERIOD SWELL...A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT."

Here's the gray and soggy forecast for Ocean City.

Staying home won't improve the forecast much. Baltimore can expect another gray, wet day today, too. The risk of more heavy rains appears to be waning, at least. Here's the forecast. And here is the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

We've ready had 1.5 inches here on the WeatherDeck since Thursday. Ditto for the airport. Here are some rain totals for the last 24 hours across Maryland. Some locations reported more than 2 inches. Forest Heights, in PG County, topped 3 inches.

Sunday's forecast here looks better, with a bit of sunshine and no rain predicted. But the rest of the week looks more iffy, with at least some rain chances every day as we remain stuck beneath a stalled cold front. Temperatures, at least will be cooler - in the 70s.

Want a pleasant AND sunny week? Head for the beaches at Presque Isle, in Erie, Pa (above).

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Storm Danny still had not managed to pull itself together into a proper spiral Friday morning. And the central pressure in the storm (29.77 in.) wasn't much lower than the pressure out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville  (29.99 in.)

Maximum sustained winds at the storm's center were barely 40 mph, only a few mph above falling back to the status of tropical depression. Here's some interesting discussion of Danny's troubles from the National Hurricane Center.

But Danny continues to move toward the Outer Banks, and its winds and waves will remain a threat to swimmers and boating along the mid-Atlantic Coast this weekend. Here is a bit of the forecast advisory this morning:

"LARGE SWELLS FROM DANNY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST
COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR MORE
DETAILS."

Tropical Storm Watches have been posted for the Outer Banks. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for Maryland's offshore waters.  Here is the latest advisory for Danny. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

While we slept .... assuming you could sleep with all the thunder and lightning ... the Baltimore region was visited by some impressive thunderstorms. We clocked 1.18 inches of rain on the WeatherDeck. The NWS instruments at BWI-Marshall recorded 1.4 inches.

Towson and Sykesville both reported an impressive 2.89 inches. Many locations across Central Maryland reported more than an inch of rain overnight. Here are some other measurements from the CoCoRaHS network.

The storms caused some flooding, and did some damage to trees and electrical lines. Here is the link to the NWS tally of storm damage reports. (Be sure to click on earlier versions for more reports.) And here is the tally of BGE power outages, which don't seem to have been too extensive.

With all that rain, the ground is pretty well saturated, forecasts say. And the forecast calls for continuing showers and storms today. So, the National Weather Service has posted Flash Flood Watches across the region from 2 p.m. Friday until late Friday night.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

That tropical disturbance in the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico has strengthened to tropical storm force and earned the name Danny. Forecasters say it will likely become a hurricane by this weekend, brush the Carolina coast and be off the Delmarva peninsula by Saturday morning.

Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the new storm.

The fourth named storm of the season was packing top sustained winds of 45 mph, with some slow strengthening expected in the next few days. At 73 mph it would become a Category 1 hurricane, the second of the season.

At 11 a.m. Wednesday the storm's center was reported to be 775 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, moving toward the west northwest at 18 mph. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track map takes the storm to a position just off the Outer Banks by early Saturday, where it is expected to be at hurricane strength.

Here's the Ocean City forecast, calling for wet and breezy weather for the weekend.

Here is the current advisory on Danny. The 11 a.m. Weds. forecast map is above. And here is the view from orbit.

Meanwhile, there is a new disturbance gathering steam off the west coast of Africa.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The tropical disturbance north of the island of Puerto Rico continues to grow and become better organized, and forecasters now give it a better-than-even chance to become a tropical storm - Danny - in the next 48 hours.

The 2 p.m. (Tuesday) advisory places stormy weather about 300 miles north of San Juan, moving toward the west northwest at around 20 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft were scheduled to fly through the storm Tuesday afternoon to gather more data on its development.

Here's the view from orbit.

The first land mass likely to feel the effects of the bad weather would be the Bahamas. Those with interests in the islands were advised to follow the storm's progress.

From there, steering winds would take it on toward the southeastern U.S. coast by Friday, although most models predict it would curve to the north, and then northeast sometime before making landfall on the coast. Dangerous rip currents seem likely to persist, however, even under this scenario.

NWS forecasters at Sterling don't seem especially concerned about this storm, noting that a cold front due here from the west later this week would tend to push the tropical low away from the coast. Just how close it gets remains a matter of debate among the computer models. Here's a bit of the forecasters' discussion this afternoon:

"TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DEPENDS ON TIMING OF
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST... 00Z EURO [a computer forecast model] /DESPITE HAVING A SLOWER SOLUTION FOR THE TC [tropical cyclone]/ SUGGESTS A TRACK NEARER THE MID-ATLANTIC THAN THE GFS [another model]. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM /NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT AT THIS TIME/ AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEEKEND WITH MOIST SWLY/SLY [southwesterly or southerly] FLOW.

"COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING AUTUMNAL-LIKE CANADIAN
AIRMASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC."

That last note will be welcomed by teachers and students as classes resume for most school systems next week. No need to worry about sweltering in un-airconditioned schools. Look for highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

It's only a batch of rain and thunderstorms for now, but forecasters at the National Hurricane Center give it a 30 to 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours. And two forecast models predict the storm will be just off Cape Hatteras by Friday. 

The bad weather is now a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, moving west northwest at 20 to 25 mph. If it does manage to reach tropical storm strength, it would become Tropical Storm Danny.

Forecast models placing it near Hatteras by the end of the week indicate it would be moving toward the northeast by then, curving away from the Mid-Atlantic coast. But we could see some impact along the beaches like that we experienced with Hurricane Bill.

Speaking of Bill, the first and so far only hurricane of the season is no longer a hurricane. The storm is headed our across the Atlantic to make trouble for shipping and Scotland.

In the meantime, have you read about the 7-year-old killed when waves driven by the storm swept spectators from rocks along the Maine coast? Others were badly injured. This is why they issue storm warnings. These people should never have been that close to the water. A Florida man also died in storm-whipped surf.

Don't fool with these storms. They are killers.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:10 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Just-barely-a-hurricane Bill is skirting the coastline of maritime Canada Sunday afternoon, its top sustained winds at about 80 mph. The storm is headed for the open Atlantic by Monday morning, and the storm track takes it to Scotland by Wednesday morning.

By then it will be just a bad storm off the Atlantic, having lost its tropical characteristics. For now, it remains a minimal Category 1 hurricane. Tropical storm warnings and a hurricane watch remained in effect Sunday afternoon for portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

Here is the latest forecast advisory. Here is the predicted storm track. And here is the view from space.

Out-of-the-blue weather question of the day: What is the odd hurricane-related headline on the copy of the New York Post held by Frank Sinatra in the movie "The Manchurian Candidate?" Glory and honor to the first person with the first correct answer.

We have a winner already! Molly Williams, of Maine, emailed me at 5:40 pm Sunday with the answer:

"VIOLENT HURRICANE SWEEPS MIDWEST; 20 DEAD, HUNDREDS HOMELESS"

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Residents - sitting Presidents included - of Cape Cod and the islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket are under tropical storm warnings today as Hurricane Bill spins northward off the U.S. East Coast.

Bill remains a 105-mph Category 2 storm, and its winds are producing heavy surf and rip currents along the southeastern coast of the U.S. Those surf conditions will extend northward today and tomorrow. Here's a web cam view of the surf from the Kite Loft at Ocean City. Looks a bit frothy already. Here's the beach forecast.

Bill's position this morning was about 410 miles east of Cape Hatteras, moving northward at 22 mph. It was due off the New England coast tonight, accelerating toward the Canadian Maritime provinces on Sunday. 

Here is the forecast for Nantucket. The tropical storm warnings mean that tropical storm conditions - winds over 39 mph - are expected within 24 hours.

Here is the latest advisory for Bill. Here is the forecast storm track, which places the storm's remnants in Ireland by mid-week.  And here is the view from orbit. 

(SUN PHOTO/Robert F. Kniesche/Hurricane Edna/Ocean City, Sept. 1954)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Bill weakened a bit more overnight, with top sustained winds falling to 115 mph amid increasing disorder in its central structure. But the storm remained a Category 3 powerhouse and a continuing threat to both Bermuda and the eastern beaches of the U.S. The Canadian Maritime Provinces were also on alert.

The storm's center this morning was about 800 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, moving to the northwest at 17 mph. Its course was expected to shift to the north northwest today, and to the north by tomorrow as the storm curves around the Bermuda/Azores high to the east, and in the face of the jet stream and cold front moving into the eastern seaboard to the west. Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the atmospheric mechanics steering the storm.

Forecasters say Bill lost some of its classic organization overnight, but could regain some strength over warmer Gulf Stream waters between the Carolinas and Bermuda. You can see in satellite images that the storm lost its open "eye."  We can probably blame wind shear for that - the high altitude winds that cut off the tops of the thunderstorms that fuel the storm. Its this kind of shear that becomes more pronounced in El Nino years like this one and make it harder for Atlantic hurricanes to form and hold together.

Here is the latest advisory on Bill. Here is the forecast track, 

Tropical storm warnings and a hurricane watch remain in effect for Bermuda. Forecasters are also continuing to warn beachgoers about the danger of heavy surf and rip currents along the East Coast this weekend as Bill passes by. The hazard will be enhanced by high astronomical tides, since we are near the time of the new moon.

"RIP CURRENTS ARE
LIFE-THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF. BE ESPECIALLY
CAUTIOUS WITH OUTGOING TIDES WHICH IMPROVE RIP CURRENT FORMATION.
ALL BEACH GOERS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF INHERENT DANGERS WHEN
ENTERING THE SURF INCLUDING SWIFT LONGSHORE CURRENTS...POUNDING
SHORE BREAK AND SHALLOW SAND BARS."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Bill continues to spin its way toward the U.S. east coast Thursday night, with forecasters promising that a turn north by Saturday will spare us all a collision with this picture-perfect Category 3 storm.

Bermuda is now under a tropical storm watch and a hurricane warning as the storm passes to the west of the island. Here is the forecast for the island paradise.

Here is the latest forecast advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. The view from orbit is above.

AccuWeather.com has a piece on the potential US impact if the storm veers slightly west of the forecast track.

In any event, forecasters are warning of rip currents and dangerous surf all along the east coast this weekend as this powerful storm passes offshore. Please be careful out there.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Bill took a breather overnight, dropping 10 mph from its top sustained winds and falling back to Category 3 status - still a "major" storm, but with top winds of "only" 125 mph.

That may change in the coming days as the storm moves back over warmer waters between the Carolinas and Bermuda. Bill is expected to restrengthen, but there is no significant change in its forecast track.

The National Hurricane Center warns that large swells created by the storm should begin reaching the U.S. coast on Friday and Saturday. That will mean heavy surf and the risk of dangerous rip currents. Here is word from the NWS's Ocean City forecast:

"A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUILDING LONG PERIOD SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE BILL WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH OUR WATERS THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THOSE HEADED TO AREA BEACHES THIS WEEKEND ARE ADVISED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION...AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SURF ZONE FORECAST"

Here is the latest forecast advisory for Bill. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Bill swirled up to Category 4 status on the Saffir-Simpson scale while we slept. The storm's top sustained winds are now near 135 mph as it moves toward the west northwest at 16 mph.

That makes Bill the first hurricane and the first "major" hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic season. The good news is that Bill does not appear to pose a threat to the East Coast, aside from rip currents and heavy surf as the storm track takes it between the Carolina coast and Bermuda.

Bill is expected to strengthen some in the next few days.

Here is the latest forecast advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

If the forecasts hold up, Hurricane Bill will become a major storm today. But the forecast tracks suggest the tempest will veer northward before reaching the U.S. mainland. That would make Bill a threat to Bermuda, and to shipping. But its biggest impact on the U.S. east coast would be in the form of big surf and rip currents. More on that from AccuWeather.com

Bill is still far out in the Atlantic, 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It's headed west northwest at 17 mph, with top sustained winds of about 100 mph. Bill was forecast to become a Cat. 3 "major" storm today, with top winds of 111 mph or more on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

Here is the latest advisory on Bill. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The second named storm of the 2009 season has grown into a minimal hurricane, the season's first, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Bill now sports top sustained winds of 75 mph as it churns across the Atlantic. While it is still far east of any landmass, Bill is expected to continue to strengthen, reaching Category 3 on the Safif-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity in the next few days, with top sustained winds fo 155 mph.

Here is the latest advisory on Bill. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Claudette (map above) has come ashore in the panhandle of Florida, where it has begun to weaken. High winds and heavy rains are the main story down there. The storm's remnants are expected to drop 3 to 6 inches of rain - and in spots up to 10 inches - along a path through Alabama, Mississippi, and reaching inland as far as Tennessee in the next few days.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. And here is the forecast for Montgomery, Alabama.

Finally, what was once Tropical Storm Ana remains badly disorganized in the northeastern Caribbean. But the depression remains a heavy rain threat to the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

In the meantime, our forecast continues to call for more hot, humid, summery weather, with highs near 90 degrees for the rest of the week. Rain won't become a factor for another day or two. And we won't see a break from the heat until the weekend. Sticky.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

While tropical storms Ana and Bill continue to advance on the islands of the Lesser Antilles, a new storm has formed out of the thunderstorms and convection in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, posing a more immediate threat to the U.S. mainland.

The latest concern for forecasters at the National Hurricane Center is Tropical Depression 4, which sports top sustained winds of 35 mph, with a track that would put it on the northwest coast of Florida later today.

Here is the Tallahassee radar loop.

Tropical storm warnings have been posted from the Alabama border to the Suwannee River. Communities there could see up to 3 to 5 inches of rain and a storm surge of 3 to 5 feet to the east of wherever the center of the storm makes landfall.

Here is the latest advisory on TD4 (which would become  Tropical Storm Claudette if winds tops 39 mph before landfall). Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

UPDATE: TD-4 has become Tropical Storm Claudette, with top sustained winds of 50 mph. TS Ana has degraded to a tropical depression.

Meanwhile, Ana and Bill continue to steam west across the Atlantic.

Here is the latest advisory on Ana. Tropical Storm watches remain in effect as far west as the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Here is the forecast storm track.

Here is the latest advisory on Bill, with 45 mph winds, and the only storm of the bunch that is forecast to become a hurricane. Here is the forecast storm track.

And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Depression 3 has been upgraded to tropical storm status as its top winds passed 39 mph this afternoon. It is now Tropical Storm Bill, and it is following in the path of TS Ana as she begins to take aim on the Dutch Antilles.

Bill (photo) is a much better-looking storm than Ana, and is expected to become a hurricane by mid-week. Here is the latest advisory on Bill. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the islands of the Dutch Antilles, including  St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius as Ana drifts closer this weekend. Interests in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico will also be paying attention to Ana.

For now, Ana's top sustained winds are still just 40 mph, a minimal tropical storm, but some strengthening is likely in the coming hours. Here is the latest advisory on Ana. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Maryland weather? Hot, but dry and beautiful, with the high at BWI today reaching 86. The drier air could allow for some late Perseid meteor watching tonight.

It was 88 downtown and here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. Hotter Sunday and near 90 right into the middle of the week.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The season's first tropical storm has formed in the Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center wants you to know that it's pronounced "Ah-na," as in Anna Faris, not "Ann-a," as in "Anniversary." So there.

Ana formed overnight out of what had been the deteriorating remnants of Tropical Depression 2, only the second such storm center to form this season.

Anyway, the storm is chugging westward across the ocean at about 16 mph, with top sustained winds of just 40 mph. That's just barely a tropical storm, but Ana is expected to strengthen in the next few days.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the latest forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.  

Hard on Ana's heels is Tropical Depression 3, which is trekking across the ocean from the same hurricane nursery near the Cape Verde Islands that spawned Ana. TD-3 is expected to become Tropical Storm Bill sometime today or tomorrow. 

Here is the latest advisory on TD3. Here is the forecast storm track (which looks a lot like Ana's path). And here is the view from space. That's TD-3 at 35 degrees West, and Ana at about 47 degrees West.

Hurricane forecasters are also watching a stormy area moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. It is given only a slim chance of developing into a tropical storm in the next few days. 

Here's a pretty cool view of the water vapor concentrations across the Atlantic basin, showing from right to left, TD-3, Ana and the mishmash in the Gulf and the Caribbean.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:59 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Lots of activity in the tropics Friday morning, although nothing, as yet, that qualifies as a tropical storm or even a significant threat to the U.S. mainland.

Topping the list is a strengthening storm system off the Cape Verde Islands (circled in red) in the far eastern tropical Atlantic. This region has been the nursery for many of the major storms that have eventually visited the U.S., so it gets lots of attention from forecasters.

The storm brewing there now is becoming increasingly well-organized, and is given a "high" chance - better-than-50 percent - of becoming a tropical storm in the next two days. Here is the latest on this system.   

Just to the west of that storm are the remnants of Tropical Depression 2, (circled in orange) which we have noted in earlier posts. It has degenerated, but forecasters say there remains some chance it could pull itself together in the coming days. The likelihood of that, however, is put at less than 50 percent.

Last on the list is a tropical wave between the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas that is producing lots of thunderstorms in the region, but shows little sign of getting organized. It is drifting to the west or northwest - toward Florida - but is given less than a 30-percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next two days.

Ever visited NASA's hurricane page? Here it is.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:43 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Looks like TD2 is weakening as it plods westward across the Atlantic. Its winds have sagged to 30 mph and it is headed for some inhospitable conditions. Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

UPDATE: TD2 is defunct, having degraded to the status of "remnant low" as of 5 p.m. Thursday. 

But now the National Hurricane Center seems more interested in a new storm brewing farther east. That's it in the satellite photo above. They give it a 30 to 50 percent chance of developing into the next tropical storm within the next two days.

Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the activity in the Atlantic.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Depression 2 is continuing to drift westward but it has not quite reached tropical storm strength. Top sustained winds this morning are still clocked at about 35 mph, with higher gusts. But TD2 will have to spin up to 39 mph to earn the first name on the 2009 list - Ana.

The latest advisory says that slow strengthening is possible, and Tropical Storm Ana could take shape anytime in the next day or two. But for now, TD2 remains simply a bad Atlantic storm.

The National Hurricane Center is currently watching three other hotspots in the tropics. One is in the eastern Caribbean, another east of the Lesser Antilles, and a third just coming off the west coast of Africa. None is given much chance of development in the next few days, but together they are an indication that the tropical Atlantic is heating up and popping off more storms. 

Here is the latest forecast storm track on TD2. And here is the view from orbit.

(NOAA PHOTO/TD2 crossing 35 degrees West)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:53 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Our hurricane season may be off to an unimpressive start, but the western Pacific is another story. We're not speaking of Hurricane (now tropical depression) Felicia, which is producing enormous waves as it passes through the Hawaiian Islands.

The big story in the Pacific is Typhoon Morakot, which has dropped as much as 83 inches of rain on parts of Taiwan, collapsing buildings and triggering huge mudslides en route to mainland China, where it has caused more death and destruction. Hundreds of people are missing on Taiwan. Here's more.

(AP PHOTO)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

It's been nearly two-and-a-half months since the season's first tropical depression formed in the Atlantic Ocean on May 28. The first one - TD-1 - faded away without ever becoming a named tropical storm. But the second one - TD-2 (who could have guessed it?) - may have a better shot at becoming Tropical Storm Ana.

Located about 200 miles west of the Cape Verde islands, TD-2 "could" become a named storm within a couple of days as it churns westward across the Atlantic, forecasters say. It poses no immediate risk to any land mass. (That's TD-2 crossing 30-degrees West in the satellite image above.)

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its August update on the prospects for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Not surprisingly, the feds agree with earlier updates by Colorado State forecasters and others - we can expect at most an average season this year, or perhaps less.

NOAA's forecasters on Thursday revised downward their May predictions, lopping off a couple of named storms, a hurricane and perhaps one major storm. Specifically:

May forecast: 9 to 14 named storms; 4 to 7 hurricanes; 1 to 3 "major" storms of Category 3 or higher.

August forecast: 7 to 10 named storms; 3 to 6 hurricanes; 1-2 major storms.

Average: 11 named storms; 6 hurricanes; 2 major storms.

The reason for backing off the earlier predictions? Once again, it's El Nino.

"El Nino continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "El Nino produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms."

But lest we become too relaxed, officials also warn that a calm start, and a relatively quiet season do not mean everyone is safe.

"It takes only one storm to put a community at risk," said FEMA administrator Craig Fugate. "That is why we need to take action and prepare ourselves and our families before the next storm hits."

We have yet to see our first named storm this season. And for now, the tropics remain quiet.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:09 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

With August underway we can expect more revisions in the season's hurricane forecasts from the nation's most visible tropical forecast teams.

The Colorado State University team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray today issued their August revisions, slightly lowering their expectations for the 2009 Atlantic season because of continued intensification of the El Nino conditions in the tropical Pacific.

The federal government's NOAA forecasters will issue their August revisions on Thursday. AccuWeather.com has already chimed in with a predictions for a below-average season.

Klotzbach and Gray said today they're now expecting a below-average season, with 10 named storms, down from the 11 in their June forecast. There have been none so far. Four of the storms will become hurricanes (down from five), and two of those will reach "major" (Category 3 or higher) strength (no change), they said.

The long-term averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major storms per season.

CSU's dynamic duo cite the continuing development of warm El Nino conditions in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean as a contributing factor in their latest forecast. El Ninos tend to increase wind shear in the Atlantic, cutting off storm development.

While sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic have increased some since June, and surface air pressures have fallen - normally things that would increase hurricane formation - the impact of El Nino will be enough to overwhelm those Atlantic factors and suppress storm formation, they said.

The chances of an East Coast landfall, they said, are 46 percent, compared with a half-century average of 52 percent. The chances that a major hurricane will come ashore on the East Coast is 27 percent, compared with 31 percent over the last half-century.

For the record, the National Hurricane Center is currently watching a stormy area far out in the tropical Atlantic, but there are no signs of quick storm development.

(SUN PHOTO/Amy Davis/ Downtown Baltimore during Isabel in 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

It doesn't have to take six months to watch a hurricane season unfold. NASA has strung together orbital imagery of the 2008 season into a brief animation and set it all to a nice island beat.

You can find the download links here.  Unfortunately, we'll have to wait and witness the 2009 season in real time.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

A cooling of surface waters in the tropical Atlantic and the likelihood of a weak El Nino developing in the Pacific this summer have taken more wind out of the hurricane forecasts for the 2009 season, which began Monday.

Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, the hurricane experts at Colorado State University, today officially lowered their forecast for the coming season. They now expect hurricane activity slightly below the long-term averages. Tropical cyclone activity across the Atlantic Basin will be 90 percent of the average season, they said, compared with 160 percent in 2008.

Seasonal forecasts from Colorado State, AccuWeather.com and NOAA have been undercutting each other, and themselves, since December. Initial forecasts of an active season have been dialed back to slightly more-active than the average, to about average, and now to slightly less-active.

The revised Colorado State forecast, however, does not diminish by much the chances that at least one big hurricane will make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline. "The probability  ... is 48 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent," Klotzbach said. They rate the chance for a Cat. 3 storm making landfall along the East Coast (including Florida) at 28 percent this season, compared to a long-term average of 31 percent. (Those are wind and waves from Tropical Storm Hanna, pounding Ocean City in the 2008 photo above.)

Here are the CSU team's latest predictions, compared with their April forecast and long-term averages:

Latest: 11 named storms, including 5 hurricanes, of which 2 will reach "major" Cat. 3 status

April: 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major

Average:  9.6 named storms; 5.9 hurricanes; 2.3 major 

For more on the team's forecasts for the coming season, click here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

It is only a threat to sailors and fish, but it is a reminder that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is on our doorstep.

The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Depression 1 has formed in the Atlantic off the Carolina coast with top sustained winds of 35 mph. By Friday it could become the first named tropical storm of the new season, which opens officially on Monday. If so, it will be Tropical Storm Ana.

TD 1 is scooting off toward the northeast at a good clip, posing no threat to any land area. But you might not want to be on a boat in the region. I'm wondering how it is affecting the surf at Hatteras, or OC for that matter. Readers? Anyone at the beach?

Here's the advisory. Here's the forecast track map. And here's the view from orbit. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The chances seem small, but the National Hurricane Center is nevertheless watching a region of the Atlantic off the Carolinas that could spawn a tropical cyclone in the coming hours. You can see the swirl of clouds assembling in the satellite image above.

At the very least the low seems sure to pump more rain ashore. Here's the statement from the NHC issued Wednesday morning:

"AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS IS LOCATED
ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. WHILE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE
SYSTEM HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
REACHING THE COLDER OCEAN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE CAROLINAS. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AT 10-15 MPH...THE
SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AN
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY...AND AN ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 2 PM EDT. SEE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

It didn't take long for a new tropical cyclone to form in the Bay of Bengal, spin up to minimal hurricane force, then go ashore and kill more than 120 people in Bengladesh and India in recent days.

Cyclone Aila formed Sunday and is already dissipating (photo below) over the subcontinent. The winds never rose above 74 mph - minimal speed for a named storm. Even so, low-lying lands in the storm's path were quickly flooded by rising water and heavy rains. It's a familiar pattern in the region, where geography and poverty combine to produce terrible losses and dislocations whenever these storms steam ashore.  Read more here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

We sure don't have to worry about it for this holiday weekend, but the 2009 hurricane season is approaching, and the government's forecasters have finally published their predictions for the coming season.

Like the corporate and university prognosticators before them, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's experts expect average to slightly-above average tropical activity from June through November.

Specifically, NOAA is predicting nine to 14 named storms, with four to seven becoming hurricanes, and one to three reaching Category 3 or more on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The long-term averages are: 11 names storms, with six hurricanes, two of them reaching Cat. 3.

They base their estimates on several factors. First is the ongoing high-activity era that began in 1995, and which is expected to continue for another decade or two. That's based on large-scale cycles in the Atlantic basin, including enhanced rainfall over west Africa, warmer Atlantic waters and reduced wind shear over the ocean regions where hurricanes form.

On the other hand, there is a chance that weak El Nino conditions could develop this summer over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, a factor that tends to suppress hurricane development in the Atlantic. Cooler-than-normal surface waters in the eastern tropical Atlantic could also tamp down hurricane development there if those conditions persist, NOAA forecasters said.

But while they are not expecting a bad hurricane season, the government meteorologists say Americans should prepare anyway. "Even a near- or below-normal season can produce landfalling hurricanes, and it only takes one landfalling storm to make a bad season," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Isabel (photo above) was a weakening tropical storm by the time it reached Maryland in 2003, and folks along the bayshore know what that cost them.

More than 35 million Americans now live within the regions most vulnerable to hurricane conditions. "Public awareness and public preparedness are the best defenses against a hurricane," said Commerce Secty. Gary Locke.

First up this year: Tropical Storm Ana. No sign of her yet.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The World Meteorological Organization has agreed to retire three names from the Atlantic Hurricane name sequences. This is done periodically out of respect for the people affected by a particularly damaging and deadly storm.

This time the WMO has consigned the 2008 storms Gustav, Ike and Paloma to the history books. Here is their reasoning: 

• Gustav became a hurricane on Aug. 26, making landfall in Haiti as a Category 1 hurricane. Gustav then struck western Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane, making its final landfall near Cocodrie, La., on Sept. 1 as a Category 2 hurricane. Hurricane force winds, storm surge and heavy rain produced more than $4 billion damage in Louisiana. Gustav killed 112 people, including 77 in Haiti.

• Ike (left) became a hurricane on Sept. 3 and rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Leeward Islands. The storm struck the Turks and Caicos Islands and Great Inagua Island in the Southeastern Bahamas on Sept. 7, and the northeast coast of Cuba later that day. Ike made its final landfall at Galveston Island, Texas on Sept. 13 as a Category 2 hurricane. Ike killed more than 80 people across the Caribbean and Bahamas, and another 20 in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas. Total estimated U.S. property damage from Ike is estimated at $19.3 billion.

• Paloma reached hurricane intensity on Nov. 7 and became the second strongest November Atlantic hurricane on record the next day, reaching Category 4. According to the Cuban government, more than 1,400 homes were destroyed on that island with $300 million U.S. dollars in damage. 

Normally, the National Hurricane Center maintains six lists of names, in alphabetical order, that are repeated every six years. When names are retired, they are replaced with new ones. Gustav, Ike and Paloma will be replaced in 2014 with Gonzalo, Isaias and Paulette.

Six years ago, Isabel, which caused so much damage in Maryland and elsewhere was retired and replaced by this year's "I" storm - Ida.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The official start of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is still two and a half months away, but the first spring forecast - this one from AccuWeather.com - is out today.

Joe Bastardi, chief long-range forecaster for the private weather service, says he expects fewer storms to develop this year compared with 2008. And fewer of the storms that do pop up, he says, will make landfall in the U.S.

That's not to say it will be a quiet year. Bastardi is still looking for an "active" season compared with long-term averages. But if he's right, it should be a slower hurricane season than we saw last year.

"This year's forecast shows only half as many impacts on the United States as there were last year," he said in a release. "But keep in mind, it only takes one major hurricane hitting a highly populated area to have a devastating impact." (That's flooding in Maryland from Isabel in 2003 at left.)

Bastardi is forecasting a total of 13 named storms in 2009, down from the 16 recorded in 2008 and close to the long-term average. Of those 13 storms, he expects 8 will reach hurricane force (the same as last year) but only 2 will become "major" (Cat. 3 or higher) storms.

Only four storms would reach the U.S. coast, if Bastardi's estimates prove accurate. That's half as many as made it last season. He says three of those would make landfall as hurricanes, and one would strike at Cat. 3 or higher - one more than last year.

The AccuWeather.com hurricane forecast calls for "probably less" activity this year in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico compared with 2008, but "probably more" activity in the western Atlantic, closer to the U.S. East Coast.

Bastardi has been predicting for years that the East Coast is overdue for a major hurricane. He believes the conditions of the atmosphere and the ocean today are analogous to those in the early 1950s, a decade of major East Coast storms.

"I think along the Eastern Seaboard that we're getting into that period that was right up their alley [in the '50s]," he says in the AccuWeather interview linked below. "In the 1950s, the roadmap of hurricanes was up the East Coast ... We're in the '50s now."

Among the factors Bastardi considered in reaching his forecast estimates:

* A shift, in the mid-to-late portion of the season - from a weak La Nina to a weak El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean. El Nino events - above-average warming of the surface waters of the eastern and central tropical Pacific - are associated with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic. 

* Stronger easterly trade winds off northern Africa. These winds typically carry dry air and dust out over the hurricane nursery region of the Atlantic, suppressing development.

* Cooler water in the "deep tropical Atlantic." This, he says, could lead to reduced activity and intensity of Atlantic storms

* Continuation of a multi-decadal pattern - established in 1995 - that leads to higher-than average hurricane activity overall.

For a video presentation of Bastardi's forecast, click here.

Stay tuned for the annual forecasts from the Colorado State University team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, due out in April, and the official government prediction, in May. The season opens June 1 and lasts through the end of November.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (5)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season won't end officially until Sunday, but meteorologists are already taking stock of what turned out to be one of the most active seasons in the 64 years since "comprehensive" record-keeping began. That's Ike in the satellite image above, just before it struck Texas.

In all, the season produced 16 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, of which five reached "major" Category 3 status. The count was close to pre-season forecasts by NOAA and Colorado State University's hurricane experts. It was also significantly higher than the long-term average of 11, 6 and 2.

Among the superlatives being posted this week:

* Tied as the fourth most-active storm season in terms of named storms and major hurricanes. 

* First time on record that six consecutive named storms struck the mainland U.S. (Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike). A record three Cat. 3 storms (Gustav, Ike and Paloma) struck Cuba.

* First Atlantic season to produce a major hurricane in five consecutive months, July through November (Bertha, Gustav, Ike, Omar, Paloma).

* Bertha, in July, was a tropical cyclone for 17 days in July, the longest-lived July storm on record in the Atlantic.

*Fay, in August, became the only storm on record to make landfall in Florida four times.

* Paloma, in November, reached Cat. 4 stature with top sustained winds of 145 mph. That made it the second-strongest November hurricane on record. (The first was Lenny, in 1999, with top winds of 155 mph.) 

NOAA's lead hurricane forecaster, Gerry Bell, attributed the turbulent season to several factors, including a combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions that has been generating above-average seasons since 1995. Also, he points to the lingering effects of the La Nina phenomenon that ended in June, and warmer Atlantic Ocean water temperatures- about 1 degree Fahrenheit above normal during the peak of the season. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:07 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Paloma is now packing top sustained winds of 140 mph, with higher gusts. Heavy rains and high storm surges are bearing down on south-central Cuba, which has been hard-hit by bad storms this season.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the storm track forecast. And here is the impressive view from space. This is an extraordinary storm, especially for this late in the season.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Paloma, now a Cat. 2 storm packing 105-mph winds, is battering the Cayman Islands with a direct hit, and moving toward Cuba. Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:45 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Paloma to hurricane status. It is a Cat. 1 storm with top sustained winds of 75 mph. But it is still strengthening, and some models take it to a Cat. 3 before it reaches Cuba.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Paloma is the 8th hurricane of the 2008 season, which will end - at least officially - on Nov. 30. It does not appear to pose any threat to U.S. territory. But the Cayman Islands and Cuba, and to a lesser extent the Bahamas, will feel the wrath of The Dove.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching a new tropical depression that formed today in the western Caribbean. It is strengthening, and was expected to become Tropical Storm Paloma by morning. It is forecast to become a hurricane - the season's 8th - later this week, and may pose a threat to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and storm-battered Cuba.

Here is the latest advisory on Tropical Depression 17. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Tropical storm watches have been posted for portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Tops sustained winds in the storm are blowing at 35 mph. Here's more from the hurricane center.

The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, with 3 1/2 weeks to go, is already the second-most destructive on record (after 2005), with $52 billion in damage. Estimates vary. By some, more than 880 people have been killed. The worst was Hurricane Ike, which killed 126 people and caused $31 billion in damage - the third costliest in U.S. history. More than 200 people remain missing in its wake.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (7)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Omar, an odd duck that formed in the Caribbean two days ago and appears headed northeastward across the Atlantic toward the Azores - seemingly the reverse of most Atlantic storms - seems to have peaked as a 120-mph Cat. 3 hurricane just as it crossed the northern Leeward Islands overnight.

Here are some early damage reports, including outages at Venezuelan oil ports and gasoline and heating oil refineries on St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, using Air Force reconaissance data and radar imagery from Puerto Rico, said Omar's core and its strongest winds passed through the Anegada Passage, between the Virgin Islands and St. Martin/Maarten in the early morning hours.

The region was under a Hurricane Warning, with forecasters predicting 5 to 10 inches of rain, with localized amounts up to 20 inches. Storm surge flooding along the storm's path and to the right of the path was expected to reach as high as 4 to 6 feet above normal tides, with large and battering waves. The storm surge was expected to be somewhat less for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands - to the left of the storm's path, but forecasters still warned of coastal erosion and damage to waterfront structures in these U.S. possessions.

Here is the latest advisory on Omar. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Omar is continuing to weaken, and will likely become a Cat. 2 storm again in the next few hours.

Continue reading "Cat. 3 Omar roars away from Leeward Islands" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

People in the Northern Leeward Islands are bracing for a strike tonight and tomorrow by Hurricane Omar. The hurricane is now a Category 1 storm with top sustained winds of 85 mph. But forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect the storm will grow to Cat. 2 status before landfall, with top winds of at least 96 mph on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

UPDATE: At 8 p.m. EDT Wednesday Omar was upgraded to a Cat. 2 storm, with top sustained winds of nearly 105 mph. Earlier post resumes:

"It also isn't out of the question that Omar could achieve major hurricane status (Cat. 3, 111 mph) just before the cyclone reaches the northern Leeward Islands," forecasters said today. But drier air from the northwest could still intrude and weaken the storm before landfall.

Here's AccuWeather.com's take on the storm.

Omar sprang up yesterday in the Eastern Caribbean just north of the Dutch Antilles, and pummeled those islands - Aruba. Bonaire and Curacao - with heavy winds and rain.

Now forecasters have posted hurricane warnings for the U.S. Virgin Islands and the small islands east of Puerto Rico - Vieques and Culebra. Also under warnings now are St. Martin/Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Barthelemy, the British Virgin Islands, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis.

Puerto Rico itself is under a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warnings. TS warnings are also posted for Antigua, Barbuda and Montserrat.

Omar this morning was centered 235 miles southwest of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands. It was moving to the northeast at about 9 mph.  Hurricane force winds were limited to a fairly small radius - just 15 miles from the center. But communities in its path can expect  tropical-storm-force winds 115 miles from the center. Five to 10 inches of rain are also possible in Puerto Rico and the other islands, which may trigger flash floods and mudslides.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the storm track and here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Storm Omar is strengthening rapidly and turning toward the northern Leeward Islands. Hurricane watches and Tropical Storm warnings have been posted for the island of Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Also:

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

As some hurricane forecasters predicted, October is proving to be an active month for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. As one tropical storm (Nana) fades away in the Atlantic, another (Omar) has formed today in the eastern Caribbean. And yet another tropical depression - the 16th of the season - is taking shape in the western Caribbean.

First, remnants of Tropical Storm Nana have dissipated in the central Atlantic, leaving just a tropical depression with top sustained winds of 30 mph. Another area of low pressure just south and east of Nana's remains is kicking up some wind and rain, but is not expected to strengthen.

Here is the final public advisory on Nana. Here is the storm track. There's not much to see from orbit.

In the eastern Caribbean, meanwhile, Tropical Storm Omar is lingering with top winds of 50 mph. It shows little motion for now, but is being felt in the Dutch Antilles - with wind and heavy rain for Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao. Forecasters are now considering storm watches from Puerto Rico to the Virgin Islands, and St. Martin, St. Eustatius and Saba.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. 

And off to the west, a disturbance off the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras has reached tropical depression status, with top winds of 30 mph. Now referred to as Tropical Depression 16, it is a threat to Central America, and is likely to become a tropical storm (Paloma) by tomorrow morning.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The 14th named storm of the 2008 hurricane season popped up far out in the Atlantic over the weekend, and this morning another tropical depression (above) was forming in the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Nana - not exactly a name to be feared, it would seem - was an especially unimpressive patch of clouds about halfway between the coast of Africa and the Caribbean islands. Struggling against strong shearing winds aloft, the storm was managing top sustained winds barely strong enough to qualify as a tropical storm. And she has since lost strength and been demoted to a tropical depression. She is expected to be no more than a "remnant low" before the day ends.

Here is the latest advisory for Nana. Here is the pathetic little forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

The other actor in the tropics this morning is Tropical Depression 15, now centered about 340 miles southwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean. TD15 is sporting top sustained winds of 35 mph, and is expected to pick up speed and begin drifting toward the northeast later today. It is also likely to strengthen to tropical storm status. If so, it will become Tropical Storm Omar.

The National Hurricane Center is considering tropical storm watches for the islands of Puerto Rico and the Virgin US Islands later today. From there, the storm is forecast to become a hurricane and head out into the Atlantic, with no further threat to land.

Here is the latest advisory for TD15. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Speaking of the Virgin Islands, there was a sizable earthquake  - 6.1 on the Richter scale - just north of the islands on Saturday, with lots of aftershocks since. Anybody down there reading this? We'd love some reports.

Here is a news report from the USVI, and another from the British Virgin Islands.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Looks like the 13th named storm of the 2008 season will form today in the Gulf of Campeche. But the little cyclone has little chance to develop into more than a really bad rain storm - as much as 6 inches of rain -  for southeastern Mexico.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say the storm will likely move west onto Mexican shores late today or tomorrow, becoming one of the shortest-lived tropical storms of the season. Now only a tropical depression, it will become Tropical Storm Marco if its top sustained winds increase to 39 mph before it goes ashore and weakens.

UPDATE: At 4 p.m. the National Hurricane Center upgraded this storm. It is now tropical Storm Marco. Earlier post resumes below.

The storm at last check was located about 100 miles east of the coastal city of Veracruz. It was moving toward the west-northwest at at 10 mph, with top sustained winds of 35 mph. Forecasters said some strtengthening is expected, and it is likely to become a tropical storm.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Some people scoffed at the dire warnings. The National Weather Service predicted a 20-foot storm surge and warned people in the Galveston area that those in one- or two-story homes who remained behind faced "certain death." Thousands of residents decided to "ride out" the storm at home anyway.

When the storm surge turned out to be only 12 or 13 feet, and the storm passed, apparently without leaving a high death toll behind, some people concluded that the warnings were hype, and that those who stayed behind did just fine.

But the devastation to some island communities that began showing up in aerial photographs (see Crystal Beach, below) a few days later made it clear that the storm was indeed catastrophic for smaller homes. Then one began to wonder: Where were the people who lived in those homes? Did they all get out in time?

Now comes this story from CNN. It says there are something like 300 people still missing three weeks after Ike. Many other "missing" folks have turned up. In time, maybe they will all be found in shelters, or with friends or relatives far from the damaged coastline. One has to hope so. They have many frantic friends and relatives looking for them. But there is growing concern that many, too many, may in fact be lost, buried in the muddy debris, or washed out to sea, or worse.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The Atlantic is quiet for now, but people in hurricane country can expect three more named storms to form this month on top of the 12 we've already experienced this season, at least according to forecasters at Colorado State University.

The respected team of Phil Klotzbach and William Gray issued their late-season forecast yesterday, saying "Well above-average hurricane activity is expected for the month of October." They predict that two of the three storms that form in October will become hurricanes, and one will become a "major" (Cat. 3 or higher) hurricane. That means top sustained winds of 111 mph or more.

"We continue to observe low sea-level pressures and warm sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic," Klotzbach said in a release issued from CSU. "A combination of these two factors typically leads to an active October. In addition, we continue to observe neutral ENSO [El Nino Southern Oscillation] conditions in the tropical Pacific, so we do not expect that ENSO conditions will be detrimental to this year's October activity."

William Gray added: "We predict that October will be quite active based on climate signals through September. There has been a strong clustering of hurricane activity around mid-July and late August/early September. We think we are now entering a new period of heightened activity that is likely to go for another two to three weeks."

Well, maybe so. But for now, the tropical Atlantic remains quiet. If we do see three more named storms, they will bear the names Marco, Nana and Omar. Somehow, Nana just doesn't seem like she will be much of a threat.

It has been a busy season so far, as Klotzbach, Gray and NOAA all predicted before the season began in June. It has also been deadly, with 860 deaths directly attributed to the storms.

July saw three named storms, including Bertha, which was the longest-lived July storm on record (July 3-20).  August was slightly more active than normal, with Gustav as the biggest news-maker.

September was also more active than normal, with Ike battering Texas, Hanna bashing the northern Leeward Islands and the middle Atlantic states, and Kyle striking Maine and the Canadian Maritimes.

Klotzbach and Gray need a few more storms to meet their June forecasts. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is already running slightly above the 1950-2000 averages, with two months to go in the season.

Named storms so far: 12 Gray's June prediction: 15 Average:  9.6

Hurricanes so far: 6  Gray's June prediction: 8   Average: 5.9

Major hurricanes so far: 3  Gray's June prediction: 4  Average: 2.3 

The season is also just short of the team's predictions for "named storm days" - the number of days when named storms (tropical storm strength or higher) have been prowling the seas. The count has far exceeded the average, however.

Named storm days so far: 74.5  Gray's predictions: 80  Average:  49.1

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Now that Kyle has gone ashore in Nova Scotia and the Maritime Provinces of Canada, the National Hurricane Center has turned its attention to Laura, a new sub-tropical storm that has formed overnight in the North Atlantic (Upper right on this image). It's spinning almost due east of Ocean City but far out on the Atlantic, south-southeast of Newfoundland. Top sustained winds are blowing at 60 mph.

For now, Laura remains a sub-tropical storm, but forecasters see signs that she could develop into a true tropical storm:

"A PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BAND
NOW CURLS ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH
OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS BROAD AND
ILL-DEFINED WITH SEVERAL INTERNAL SMALLER SWIRLS.  WITH THE
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...A CASE COULD BE MADE THAT THE
CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS."

Laura will not become a direct threat to North America, but shipping will be grappling with a bad storm. The storm track makes it appear that Ireland and the British Isles will be dealing with Laura in a few days.

Here is the latest advisory on Laura. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:25 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Storm Kyle has graduated to hurricane status, and continues his northward trek in the Atlantic. The center of the storm late Saturday night was about 400 miles south of Nantucket, off the Carolina coast. It was moving to the north at 24 mph with top sustained winds of 75 mph - a minimal Cat. 1 hurricane. Kyle was expected to weaken Sunday over colder waters and before landfall.

A hurricane watch was posted for the Maine coast from Stonington east to Eastport, and for southeast Nova Scotia. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Maine coast from Port Clyde to Cape Elizabeth, including the Portland area.

Rain from the storm was already reaching well to the north of the storm's center Saturday night. We can probably expect to see some serious flood video out of the region in the next few days. Here is the latest advisory. Here is the latest storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The season's 11th named storm has formed in the Atlantic east of the Bahamas. It has been named Kyle, but it seems to pose little threat to land, at least for now.

Kyle was located more than 600 miles south southwest of Bermuda, moving north with top sustained winds of 45 mph. That course would take it well west of Bermuda, toward Maine and the Canadian Maritime Provinces.  It does seem likely to keep the surf pounding along the East Coast into next week.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching the northeast Caribbean where stormy weather appears to be organizing into what could, later today, become the next tropical depression of the season. If it grows to tropical storm strength, it will be named Kyle.

Here is the satellite loop. Here is what the NHC is saying:

"THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center said today it could not immediately confirm that this year's storm season marks the first time on record that that six consecutive named tropical storms or hurricanes have made landfall in the United States. The guy who  searches the records for such things is unavailable until Thursday.

But Weather Underground blogger Jeff Masters, citing NOAA data, reported during Hanna's romp up the coast that its landfall tied the previous record of five consecutive U.S. landfalls. That mark had been set and matched five times before:

2004: (Frances, Gaston, Hermine, Ivan, and Jeanne)
2002: (Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Isidore) (Familiar names? Atlantic storm names are recycled every six years, unless severe damage or loss of life prompt their retirement.)
1985: (Gloria, Henri, Isabel, Juan, and Kate)
1979: (Bob, Claudette, David, Elena, and Frederic)
1971: (Doria, Edith, Fern, Ginger, Heidi)

So it sure looks like we've established a new mark this year. Three of the last six named storms struck Texas. The others hit Florida, Louisiana and North Carolina. Get a better look at the above Weather Underground track map, here.

The assaults began on July 23 when Hurricane Dolly made landfall at South Padre Island in Texas as a 100-mph Cat. 2 storm. It spared human lives in Texas, but caused $1.2 billion in damage. At the time, it was the third costliest tropical system in Texas history. Flash flooding from Dolly's remnants killed two people in New Mexico.

On Aug. 5, Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall with heavy rains and 65 mph winds, near Port Arthur, Texas. Tropical Storm Fay drifted out of the Caribbean and made landfall on the Florida Keys, and then again in South Florida on Aug. 18. It crossed the peninsula, dumping huge amounts of rain that caused serious flooding before moving out into the Atlantic. Fay then turned west, crossed the peninsula again into the Gulf, and made landfall again on the Florida Panhandle. That made it the first storm in Florida history to make landfall there four times.

Hurricane Gustav made landfall in Louisiana on Aug. 31, with 110 mph winds after weakening from a Cat. 4 to a Cat. 2 storm. It caused more flooding and an estimated $15 billion in U.S. damage. Hurricane Hanna developed on Sept. 1 but weakened during a long period wandering in the Bahamas. It then turned north and moved up the East Coast as a tropical storm. It made landfall in North Carolina Sept. 6 with top winds of 70 mph.

The sixth storm to make landfall in the U.S. was, of course, Hurricane Ike, which crashed ashore in Texas, near Galveston over the weekend, a 110-mph Cat. 2 storm. It has already been tagged with causing an estimated $27 billion in damage in the U.S., the third most destructive U.S. storm on record, after Andrew in 1992, and Katrina, in 2005. Better numbers are likely as more time passes.

In the meantime, check out these amazing before-and-after photos from the USGS. This is why people need to obey evacuation orders.

With two-and-a-half months to go, the 2008 season has so far produced more than half of the storms predicted for this year. 

Named storms: 10 (Colorado State Univ. forecast: 17. NOAA forecast: 14-18) 

Hurricanes: 5  (CSU: 9. NOAA: 7-10)

"Major" storms: 3  (CSU: 5. NOAA: 3-6)

Maybe we'll get lucky and find we're done. For now, the tropics remain quiet.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Ike is still hours from landfall and already he has spread havoc up and down the Texas coastline. Coastal communities, including Surfside Beach are already flooded. At least one fire has broken out amid flooded beachside homes on Galveston Island (above). Coast Guard rescue crews have risked their own lives to rescue motorists caught in the flood waters as Ike's storm surge pushes inland.

Spend a little time with these videos on CNN.com I recommend especially the Coast Guard helicopter rescue. Here is a photo gallery.

The tidal data from Galveston shows that the rising water - some 7 feet above normal tides - has paused, but not retreated significantly as the cycle passes low tide. When the tide begin to rise again, the coast will feel the full impact of the surge. Forecast still call for a surge as big as 15 to 22 feet in Galveston Bay, and 14 to 17 feet for Galveston Island.

The weather data from the Pleasure Pier shows gusts to 50 mph. That will get worse. Top sustained winds near Ike's center were still 105 mph, with higher gusts. Houston has been warned to expect winds at higher altitudes to 120 mph - enough to blow out the windows of some Houston skyscrapers.

Did I mention a foot of rain and tornadoes?  

Images, video and WeatherBug web cams are already showing flood waters moving up coastal streets, with waves battering waterside homes. And this is only the beginning. Ike's eye is not expected to reach the coast until late tonight or early tomorrow. Even some of those Texans who boasted they would ride it out have begun to change their minds. No wonder. Here are the Hurricane Warnings.  Here's a piece of it, toned down slightly from last night's "leave or die" notice:

"NEIGHBORHOODS THAT ARE AFFECTED BY THE STORM SURGE...AND POSSIBLY
ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD
OF PEAK STORM TIDE. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY. VEHICLES LEFT
BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-
STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE
PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING
THOSE OF BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE
YEARS TO REPAIR.

What's ahead for Texas? Check out this video from Cuba, where Ike struck earlier this week.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. Here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The waters of the Gulf of Mexico are already rising ahead of Hurricane Ike as the giant storm closes on the northern coast of Texas and western Louisiana. Sea levels are already 5 feet above predicted tides, and forecasters are warning of an approaching storm surge that could push the water 20 to 25 feet above normal levels.

Video from the Texas coast shows beach communities are already awash. That's making WeatherBug meteorologist Joe Bartosik very nervous:

"I’m becoming extremely concerned by what I’m seeing on our own WeatherBug cameras, tidal gauges, and news clips: storm surge flooding placing communities well underwater (at least 4 to 6 feet) from Cameron, Louisiana to Galveston, Texas and the hurricane hasn’t even arrived yet! At this point, and with forecasts of a 20 to 25 foot surge, I don’t think it would be unrealistic or overly dramatic to expect extreme, if not catastrophic, storm surge damage similar to that which occurred in Katrina and Rita."

Here's how a WeatherBug camera in Galveston captured the storm surge this morning as it put water over a parking lot at Moody Gardens. Watch the parking space lane paint, and then the median strips, go under. This one will be good to watch as the storm itself moves in.

Here's the forecast for Galveston. And here are the warnings. It's quite a read.

That high water will drive miles up the bays, rivers and ship channels. Large, battering waves are expected to crash over coastal communities, with widespread damage. The warnings, as we have reported in the previous post, are dire. Anyone remaining behind in one- or two-story residences can expect "certain death," forecasters have stated.

The center of Hurricane Ike was 195 miles southeast of Galveston at 11 a.m. EDT today, moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph. It was expected to begin a gradual right turn later today, and to the north by tomorrow into the Southern Plains.

Top sustained winds had strengthened a bit overnight, to 105 mph. That's pretty close to the 111 mph threshhold for a Cat. 3 "major" hurricane, so its possible Ike could make that mark before landfall. A wind gauge 400 feet high on an offshore oil platform was reading 125 mph earlier this morning.

In the meantime, winds are rising and the barometric pressure is falling in the Houston and Galveston area. You can track conditions on this private weather station in Galveston . (First station I linked to shut down almost immediately. This link is a new one that still seems to be working).

Here is some realtime weather data from the Pleasure Pier in Galveston. Here's the tide data.

Here is the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forecast storm track. Here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Residents of Galveston who stay behind to "ride it out" in one- or two-story structures as Hurricane Ike approaches in the next 24 hours were warned by the National Weather Service tonight they will face "certain death" as a storm surge up to 22 feet high rolls across the island.

I have never seen a warning like this one, issued tonight for Galveston:

"LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

"ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR."

Take a few minutes to read the warnings issued for Galveston tonight. It's terrifying.

Here's a sample:

"STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES BEING
SEVERELY DAMAGED. THOSE THAT SURVIVE WILL BE UNINHABITABLE UNTIL
REPAIRED. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL HAVE MAJOR
DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS BEING LIFTED
OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES WILL
INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS. UP TO ONE QUARTER OF GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL.

"PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY
TO THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM
COVERINGS. OLDER LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN
OFF...AS WELL AS RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. UP TO ONE
QUARTER OF ALL GLASS IN HIGH RISE OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN
OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE
FATALITIES.

"NATURAL DAMAGE WILL INCLUDE ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES BECOMING
UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. NEARLY ALL LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP. BETWEEN
ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF OF HEALTHY SMALL TO MEDIUM SIZED TREES
WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED...MOST COMMON WHERE THE GROUND IS
SATURATED. UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF NEWLY PLANTED GROUND CROPS
WILL BE DAMAGED."

And here's a bit of the storm advisory from the National Hurricane Center that deals with storm surge:

 "COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.  SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.  COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST"

Given the developments with Ike during the day today, I yield the point on this storm. If all this plays out as forecast, Ike will indeed be a "monster." 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:44 PM | Permalink | Comments (5)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Texas officials are warning residents of the Galveston area that the city's 17-foot seawall may well be overtopped as Ike comes ashore late tomorrow, and their homes on the island may be be flooded up to the eaves - 14 feet.

Ike may not have winds enough to put it into Cat. 4 or Cat. 5 territory. But it is a very broad storm and it is moving a great deal of water. Storm surges ahead of Ike, from the center to the east, could reach as much as 20 feet, forecasters are saying, and will almost certainly - even at lesser heights - cause disastrous flooding well up into Galveston Bay and elsewhere in the region.

If you've ever been to Galveston, you know what a lovely city it is, filled with beautiful old homes restored or rebuilt after the calamitous hurricane of 1900. That storm caused terrible damage and killed what has been estimated to be 8,000 people - maybe more. It remains the deadliest natural disaster ever to strike the U.S. One hates to see the city's homes suffer a similar fate 108 years later. But at least this time people have been given the information, the time and the opportunity they need to flee, unlike in 1900.

Is Ike a monster? If you measure it by storm surge, or square miles of ocean covered, maybe so. I've seen some impressive arguments to that effect since this morning's post and I'm willing to concede that point. It surely will be for those in its path. Here's the latest from the folks at WeatherBug:

"Ike may not be as strong as a Category 3 storm, but its impact could be similar.  Offshore buoys have reported waves up to 30 feet.  Also, tidal gauges along the coasts of Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi are 2 to 5 feet above normal.  Strong easterly winds on the north side of Ike will continue to drive the waves along the coast, leading to a significant storm surge of perhaps 15 to 20 feet above normal tide just north of where Ike makes landfall.

"Track forecasts are also nudging northward as Ike is expected to move along the backside of a building subtropical ridge over the southwest Atlantic and the Southeast U.S.  There is very good model agreement in taking Ike north of Corpus Christi, to just south of Galveston Bay, which increases the chances for significant impacts (wind, surge, tornadoes) in the Houston metro area.  In addition, the oil refineries will be hit by strong winds and high waves."

If you measure "monstrous," after the fact, by the loss of life, by damage to the region (and repercussions across the economy if Houston is paralyzed, and the refineries are knocked out), it looks like we'll have the answer in a few days.

Then what? Should people be encouraged and subsidized to rebuild along the coast? Good question. Why does anyone build (or insure) homes in the paths of these storms? With enough time, calamity is inevitable. But of course they will rebuild, just as we would in Ocean City. Just as we have in Isabel's wake. And as sea levels continue to rise, these surge and flood events will only get worse. Makes you wonder how smart we really are.

Here's the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forecast storm track. Here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:12 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Ike is still spinning with top sustained winds of "only" 100 mph -  Cat. 2. But it is a sprawling storm, with hurricane winds more than 100 miles from its center. And those winds are pushing a storm surge ahead of them that could rise to 20 feet as the storm nears the Texas coast late Friday. The surge map above shows a 90 percent probability (dark red) of a 5-foot surge (or higher) around Galveston.

The National Hurricane Center's latest advisory says Ike's big surge should be expected to the east of wherever the storm's center goes ashore. The hurricane winds extend 115 miles from the center, while tropical storm winds reach 275 miles out. That's one very large storm, and it puts many more people and more property in serious danger.

Here's the latest advisory. Here's the forecast storm track. And here's the view from space.

Forecast models differ on how much, if at all, Ike will strengthen before landfall. Some say Cat. 2 when he goes ashore. Some say Cat. 4. Here's the discussion.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Okay, I've been grumping privately about this for a couple of weeks - ever since the CNN morning achors began referring to Hurricane Gustav as a "monster" storm as it crossed the Gulf of Mexico and threatened New Orleans.

This morning, they did it again. Only this time, Kiran Chetry used the word to describe Hurricane Ike, now closing in on the Houston area with another round of violent tropical weather nobody around the Gulf needs to see again.

Now, I do sometimes take issue with those who accuse the news media of "hyping" Atlantic hurricanes. These are dangerous storms, and there are thousands of lives and billions of dollars in property at risk whenever hurricanes or tropical storms make landfall. The media and government at all levels - as well as the general public - need to err on the side of caution every time. It would be far worse - as the Bush Administration learned after Katrina (photo above) - to do too little to prepare and to warn people about the possibilities.

That said, we also cannot afford to devalue the language we use in describing these storms and their potential consequences.

Gustav was no "monster." My dictionary defines "monstrous" as "Deviating from the norm in structure or appearance... unusually large ... hideous: shocking."   Churchill described the Nazi regime as "a monstrous tyranny, never surpassed." Get the drift?

Gustav was, briefly, a strong Category 4 storm, with top sustained winds of 150 mph. But its encounter with Cuba knocked it back to a 135-mph Cat. 3. Despite forecasts to the contrary, it actually weakened as it moved in on Louisiana, and went ashore as a strong Cat. 2 storm. 

It was bad. Twenty-five people died in the U.S. as a result of this storm. And damages came to something like $20 billion. But it was hardly the "Storm of the Century," or the "Mother of all Storms" that New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin warned his residents about. Now, you could argue that Nagin was just trying to motivate his people to flee, and avoid the scenes of death, desperation and squalor that followed Katrina. But what words will he use when a Cat 4 or Cat 5 bears down on his city again? And, given enough time, it will.

Ike is bad, too. Here's the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Ike is a Cat. 2 hurricane with top sustained winds of 100 mph. And forecasters say there's a chance he could become a Cat. 3 (111 mph or more) before making landfall on Saturday morning. But Ike is no monster, either.

The National Hurricane Center tells us that storms of Cat. 3 or more occur an average of 2.3 times each season.  Now, for my money, you don't get to be a "monster" hurricane if you show up more than twice every season, on average.

So what about Cat. 4? The government's data shows that Cat. 4 storms strike the U.S. once every six years, on average. I'd use the word "historic" for those, perhaps. But "monstrous?"

To get a "monster" label from CNN, I would argue that you have to qualify as a Cat. 5 hurricane as you get within a few days of landfall. Katrina would qualify under that definition. She reached Cat. 5 status, however briefly, a day before landfall, but slowed to a Cat. 3 before touching the Louisiana coast. She killed more than 1,800 people, and caused $81 billion in damage.

Any  Cat. 5 storm that makes landfall with that sort of power gets a free ticket to monstrous, in my book. That admits the Labor Day Storm of 1935, Hurricane Camille (left) on the Gulf Coast in 1969, and Hurricane Andrew in South Florida in 1992.

Cat 5 storms - with top sustained winds of 155 mph or more -form in the Atlantic, on average, once every three years, although the pace in the 2000s seems to have quickened. There have been only four years - 1960, 1961, 2005 and 2007 - when more than one Cat. 5 has formed in the same season. And 2005 was the only year in which two Cat. 5 storms (Dean and Felix) made landfall (not in the U.S.) at that strength.

Now that starts to sound more like "monster" to me. You could also make a case for using central barometric pressure as your measure of "monstrosity." I could live with that. I'd nominate any storm with a central pressure of 27.50 inches of mercury or less. 

I would also allow the word to be used - after the fact - for the most destructive storms, such as Hazel (1954) and Agnes (1972), which, while not Cat. 5 storms, were monstrously destructive anyway. 

But that's just me. What do you think?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (25)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Ike now covers about half the Gulf of Mexico, a big, strengthening storm that is already about as big as its next target - Texas. Top sustained winds are running at 100 mph, with further strengthening to Category 3 expected tonight. Forecasters are talking about Cat. 3 or 4 winds of 130-135 mph just before landfall.

The exact point of landfall doesn't matter too much when hurricane winds extend 90 miles from the storm's center. It's best to get out of the way. Texans have already begun to evacuate low-lying coastal areas, with Corpus Christi increasingly in the storm's crosshairs. 

Hurricane watches were posted this afternoon for most of the Texas coastline, with Tropical Storm warnings up for Louisiana's coast.

Here is the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the satellite loop. Here is how the meteorologists at WeatherBug see the storm's development.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

UPDATE: Hurricane Ike is now a Category 2 storm with top sustained winds of 100 mph. The storm continues to gather strength in the Gulf of Mexico, headed for a weekend landfall in Texas. Watch Ike grow in this satellite loop. An earlier post follows, below. 

Hurricane Ike appears to be recovering from its scrape with the Island of Cuba, and appears ready to become a major hurricane again tomorrow, with designs on the central Texas coast.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center note that Ike's cloud pattern is becoming better organized, and some deep convection has developed near the center - both indications that the storm's primary heat engines are still healthy and revving up. Maximum sustained winds have increased from 75 mph as it pulled away from Cuba yesterday to near 90 mph today. Here's how the morning discussion at the NHC put it: 

"THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN, AND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN FORECAST."

A Cat. 3 storm has top winds of at least 111 mph.

The storm was moving toward the northwest at 8 mph, with a slight left turn later today. A weakening high over the eastern U.S. is still expected to curve the storm track more to the right before or soon after landfall. 

Here's the latest advisory for Ike. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

In the meantime, Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for waters west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas, and over portions of western Cuba as Ike's outflow continues to be felt there. They can expect 6 to 12 inches of rain. The Keys could receive another 1 to 3 inches, with 2 to 4 over other parts of South Florida. Isolated tornadoes, waterspouts, storm surge flooding, large and dangerous waves and rip currents are also still on the menu until Ike moves farther off. Here's some more video from Key West.  And this, too.

In Texas, folks are preparing for Ike's landfall this weekend. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

After battering Cuba for several days, Hurricane Ike - just barely a hurricane for the moment, has moved off the northwestern tip of the island and entered the Gulf of Mexico. Next stop?

Ike was about 90 miles west-southwest of Havana, moving west-northwest at about 10 mph. Top sustained winds are blowing at 75 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center, just two mph from slipping back into tropical storm range. But Ike somehow managed to retains his core structure, and central pressures remain low, according to the hurricane hunter aircraft. So he is expected to restrengthen over the warm waters and favorable winds along its path across the Gulf.

Some computer models show Ike becoming a major storm again, Cat. 3 or better. But others aren't so persuasive according to the latest discussion from the Hurricane Center. A weakening of the high pressure north of the Gulf suggests that Ike's track will begin to turn to the right a bit after four or five more days, putting the central Texas coast and the oil patch at greater risk.

Check out the Saturday forecast for Port Aransas, Tex.

Here is the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forecast track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane Ike today was pounding Cuba with torrential rains and high winds. But contact with the island's mountainous terrain disrupted the circulation around the center and knocked the storm's top sustained winds down to "only" 80 mph.

Residents of Florida and the Gulf Coast should take no comfort in that, however, as forecasters expect Ike will revive as its center remains over warm water south of Cuba, and again when it moves into the eastern Gulf and slows. Re-strengthening is expected before the storm reaches the Gulf Coast later this week.

Here is the latest advisory for Ike. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Here's a bit of this afternoon's discussion at the Hurricane Center. They seem to feel that high pressure to the north will keep Ike on a more westward path. That could spare the northeastern Gulf coast, and New Orleans. But it would seem to be sending the storm toward the La.-Tex border, or even Houston. Maybe Houstonians will be taking refuge in New Orleans this time.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

We may be tempted to write Tropical Storm Hanna off as a "fizzle." But for many Marylanders, yesterday's tropical storm delivered a formidible punch in the form of heavy rain and high winds.

Portions of Montgomery and Frederick counties reported well over 5 inches of rain. Fifteen stations reported rains over 4 inches. Areas of Harford, Howard, Carroll and Cecil recorded more than 3 inches before the day was over. That was easily a month's rain in one day for many locations, and well within the forecasts we were seeing on Friday.

And while the sustained winds rarely topped tropical storm force (39 mph), the gusts often did, even in Baltimore City and its surrounding suburbs. Ocean City saw winds gusting to more than 60 mph during the storm.

Here are some of the MOST IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL READINGS, provided by WeatherBug.

The Bullis School, Potomac:  6.11 nches

Montgomery County Schools Transp. Dept.: Rockville: 5.95 inches

Diamond Elementary School, Gaithersburg:  5.18 inches

North East High School, (Cecil): 4.5 inches

Earth and Space Lab, Frederick: 4.3  inches

Mt. Airy Middle School, (Carroll): 4.13 inches

Nanjemoy Creek Env. Ctr (Charles): 3.71 inches

Manchester Elem. School (Carroll): 3.09 inches 

Darlington Elem. School, Sykesville (Carroll): 3.01 inches

Folly Quarter Middle School (Howard): 2.99 inches

Shady Side Elem. School (Arundel): 2.77 inches

Wilde Lake HS, Columbia:  2.57 inches

Here are some MORE READINGS FROM CoCoRaHS, a network of volunteer weather observers.

WIND GUST DATA FROM WEATHERBUG this morning includes the following highlights:

Ocean City:  63.1 mph

Crisfield Fire Dept.: 55.9 mph

UMES, Princess Anne:  50.6 mph

MEMA Emergency Operations Center, Reisterstown:  44.5 mph

Oriole Park Camden Yards, Baltimore: 44.5 mph

Thurgood Marshall HS, Baltimore: 44.1 mph

Hamstead Hill Academy, Baltimore: 43.8 mph

Here is a compilation of wind and rain data from the National Weather Service. You can also view lists of storm damage reported to the National Weather Service by clicking HERE. Be sure to click through the many "Version" numbers at the top of the NWS page for more a comprehensive look at the reports.

Continue reading "A month's rain in a day" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The radar loop for the Northeast at 4:40 p.m. shows that most of Hanna's rains have passed through Central Maryland. Although the center of Hanna's rotation remains in the southern end of the Chesapeake Bay, and the Delmarva Peninsula, there is very little precipitation showing on radar to the south and west of Baltimore.

The rain gauge here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville reads 2.42 inches. All but a quarter-inch of that has fallen since daybreak today. That's a good bit of rain for 8 or 9 hours, but not the 3 to 7 inches forecasters warned of yesterday.

Out at BWI, the NWS instruments clocked only 1.6 inches. But Dulles International, in Northern Virginia, has reported almost 5 inches of rain today.

Other locations may likewise have seen far more rain than others. Flash flood warnings are in effect in several counties west of Baltimore and Washington. Most streams in the region are now running well above their norms for this time of year, and a few are at record highs.

We just ventured out and notice very high water - though no road flooding - on Beaver Dam Creek at York Road in Cockeysville. Western Run is also very high, but not out of its banks.

There is lots of ponding on the roads, and cars are throwing up some impressive rooster tails. Traction is dicey in some places where the water is laying on top of a thin layer of oil accumulated during weeks of dry weather. So drive carefully.

Here are some storm damage reports reported to the National Weather Service in Sterling. Plenty of downed trees and street flooding. Virginia seems to have had the worst time of it. You can click on the "version" numbers across the top for earlier reports.

Sorry this post is so late, but we lost power for a time this afternoon. BGE has reported more than 75,000 customers out of service today. More than 46,000 (including me) have already had their power restored.  

Here is the latest advisory on Hanna. Here is the storm track. And here is the view from space.

Continue reading "Hanna pulling away; rains near end" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

If you woke up disappointed (or relieved) that the trees are still and the overnight rain has been a trifle, don't let down your guard just yet, Baltimore. Hanna is ashore, and she's slowed her maximum winds a bit. But she has not gone away.

Some outer bands sprinkled the region with a quarter-inch or so of rain over night. But there's more to come. The regional radar loop shows the situation best, with the heavier stuff still moving up the bay. They're getting winds over 20 mph in the southern Chesapeake, with more to come.

Here's the latest advisory. Here's the official forecast for BWI. Here's the storm track, which does not appear to have changed much. And here's the satellite view.

If you're along the bay and worried about surge, plan for 1 to 3 feet, not the higher amounts noted in today's story. Those are for locations east of the storm's center. We're west. That should have been made clearer.

This storm will move through the region today, pass to the south and east of the city and race off to the northwest this evening. A fast flyby will minimize the rain totals and the duration of any high winds. We hope.

Continue reading "Hanna still en route" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hanna is making her final approach to the U.S. mainland tonight. She's no hurricane, but it doesn't require a hurricane to generate a whole lotta trouble for Maryland. Isabel (2003) was a tropical storm. So was Agnes (1972).

I'm not saying we're in for anything like those storms. But it could easily be like Ernesto in 2006, or Jeanne in 2004. What? Forgotten those already? Me, too. But I read the clips. It was a mess. Plenty of structural damage, loose boats, flooding and power outages all over the place.

So stay inside. And if you have the electrical juice to read this, you can do what I do: Report on Hanna while sitting on your keister:

For the LATEST ADVISORY on Hanna, click here. For the LATEST STORM TRACK, click here. And for the LATEST VIEW of Maryland from orbit, click here. (IT WILL BE DARK UNTIL THE SUN COMES UP.)

Now, if you want to see where all the POWER OUTAGES are happening, and how BGE is doing cleaning them up, click here.

For lists of STORM DAMAGE AND OTHER INCIDENTS reported to the National Weather Service in Sterling, click here. (THIS, TOO, MAY BE BLANK UNTIL STUFF STARTS HAPPENING.)

For all the WATCHES AND WARNINGS current for Central Maryland and Northern Virginia, click here.

To track CONDITIONS ON THE CHESAPEAKE Bay, go to the John Smith Trail bay data buoys by clicking here.

For WEATHER RADAR from Sterling, click here. For WEATHER CONDITIONS AT BWI, click here.

For real-time weather conditions at PRIVATE WEATHER STATIONS almost anywhere around Maryland (including the very empty executive parking lot at The Baltimore Sun): click here.

If you do venture out, and you see cool weather stuff happening, drop a comment here. (BE PATIENT WITH OUR CREAKY SYSTEM. ALL COMMENTS HAVE TO BE NOTICED, AND THEN READ, USUALLY BY ME. ) 

Better yet, SUBMIT YOUR DIGITAL PHOTOS to our MarylandWeather.com Web site. GO HERE for that.

Be safe. Stay dry. And don't be a dope and try to drive through high water. Six inches of moving water can sweep you AND YOUR CAR away. TURN AROUND. DON'T DROWN. And don't make water rescue crews risk their lives to save your sorry self.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:18 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

UPDATE 11:50 A.M.: The Tropical Storm Watch issued for Maryland has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. That means tropical storm conditions are now expected here within 24 hours. The warning includes all of the Chesapeake Bay, the Tidal Potomac and the Eastern Shore. An earlier post continues below.  

Sure, we'll get some bluster out of Hanna when she arrives tomorrow. Some limbs and maybe some weakened trees will topple, and power will go out for many of us. But I suspect it will be the rain that we remember once Hanna departs.

Central Maryland from Harford County south to St. Mary's and the Eastern Shore are all under a Tropical Storm Watch through Saturday. We should expect sustained winds tomorrow of 25 to 35 mph, with gusts to 50 mph throughout the day. The strongest winds are likely east of the I-95 corridor. Clouds in the outermost bands of Hanna are already approaching the Chesapeake. Here's a satellite phone shot at 11 a.m.

Flash Flood Watches are up throughout the region, too. Forecasters say we can expect 4 to 7 inches of rain before the storm is over, with localized accumulations of 10 inches. The rain could start as early as tonight. Although the low streamflow we're seeing now should leave plenty of room for the rivers and creeks to rise, there is still a danger of small-stream flooding into low-lying roads if rainfalls exceed 3 to 4 inches over three hours.

Storm surge flooding is also a danger tomorrow. Forecasters are warning that tides will run 2 to 4 feet above normal levels on the western shore of the Chesapeake and the tidal Potomac. Highest water levels should occur around the time of high tide tomorrow. - between 10 a.m. and 12 noon in the Baltimore and Annapolis areas, and between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m. in the Washington area.

Here is the latest advisory on Hanna. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is how she looks from space. Here is AccuWeather.com's thinking on this storm and the next - Ike.

Out in Ocean City and the Eastern Shore, winds will run between 39 and 44 mph, with gusts to 60 mph during the day. Hanna will drop 4 to 6 inches of rain out there, if the forecast holds up. Coastal storm surge flooding will run 3 to 5 feet above normal levels.

Continue reading "Trop. Storm Warning Issued; Hanna toting 4 to 7 inches of rain" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Parts of Maryland is now under a Tropical Storm Watch as TS Hanna continues its advance on the U.S. mainland. A new track forecast brings the storm up the coast, with the center line of the "cone of uncertainty" passing directly over Ocean City. Here's how it reads:

"A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO GREAT EGG INLET NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS."

Central Maryland is also under a Flash Flood Watch for Saturday, with 3 to 6 inches of rain possible along the storm's path.

The good news? Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center this afternoon are saying that it is increasingly unlikely that Tropical Storm Hanna will strengthen to hurricane status before making landfall tomorrow. On the other hand, the old girl is not likely to weaken either, and "PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE," they said.

More precisely, Hanna was blowing with top sustained winds of 65 mph at last check. Hurricane force winds begin at 74 mph. Either one will knock you down, take out trees and utility lines and make a general mess of the place.

Tropical Storm Warnings are posted now all the way to the North Carolina/Virginia border. A Hurricane Watch extends to Currituck Beach Light in the Outer Banks, including Pamlico Sound.

The other news out of the Hurricane Center this afternoon was a slight twitch to the west in Hanna's forecast track. She could twitch again, of course. But if this latest track change holds up, the storm's center will run right up the coast - NOT offshore - passing directly over Ocean City. That would mean stiffer winds for the resort, for the Eastern Shore, and quite possibly for Baltimore. A bigger twitch to the left could send the center of the storm west of the Chesapeakem setting us up for some significant bay flooding.

Here's the latest advisory. Here's the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

The other concern, of course, is that Hurricane Ike is right behind Hanna, a few days east in the Atlantic. No assurances yet where he will go, but with top winds at 135 mph (down a tad from earlier today, but still extremely dangerous) we have to keep a close watch on that storm, too.

Here's the latest advisory for Ike. Here's the track map, and here's the view from space. That's one good-looking hurricane.

And here is the wind forecast map. It shows a 60 percent chance of tropical storm winds on the Eastern Shore. You can see Ike right on Hanna's heels. Josephine is about to enter at the right of the picture. But she seems to be falling apart.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:06 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Another sunny day in the 90s today. You'd never know we had two tropical storms to worry about. Tropical Storm Hanna has circled around and is now making a beeline for the Carolina coast with winds that are forecast to reach hurricane strength before landfall early Saturday morning. Out on the Atlantic, meanwhile, Hurricane Ike is now a fierce Cat. 4 storm with top sustained winds of 140 mph.

Here's a satellite loop showing both storms - Hanna in the Bahamas, and Ike - with a clearly defined eye - entering at the right side of the screen. 

Hanna is first. A hurricane watch has been posted for most of the South Carolina coast, and a portion of the North Carolina shore. The watch means that folks there should prepare for hurricane conditions within 36 hours. Here's the latest advisory.

The storm's center early this morning was 770 miles south-southeast of Wilmington, N.C. It was tracking toward the northwest at 12 mph. Top sustained winds were blowing at 70 mph with "slight" strengthening expected prior to landfall. At 73 mph Hanna would become a minimal Cat. 1 hurricane.

The most notable thing about Hanna is her size. Forecasters describe Hanna as "large and robust." Tropical storm-force winds extend nearly 300 miles outward from the storm's center. The storm surge ahead of this storm will run 1 to 3 feet above normal tides.

The forecast track would carry Hanna up the coast, passing just offshore from Ocean City around mid-day Saturday. Our forecast calls for 3 inches of rain or more in Baltimore before the storm races off to the notheast.

With the storm's center to our east, that will mean our winds would be from the north at 13 to 23 mph. That would blow water out of the Chesapeake and spare bayshore residents any serious flooding from the bay. Street flooding and high water in the streams and creeks may be another matter to watch for. Here's today's local weather story by Scott Calvert.

Continue reading "Hanna heads for Carolinas; Ike a Cat. 4" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Hurricane Center this afternoon upgraded Tropical Storm Ike to hurricane status. Farther west, Hanna was regrouping and turning for the Carolinas. And to the east in the Atlantic, meanwhile, Tropical Storm Josephine was losing strength.

UPDATE: 8:45 P.M. Ike has been upgraded again this evening. It is now a Category 3 storm with top sustained winds of 115 mph. Earlier post resumes below.

Ike is now the fifth hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic season. It was 670 miles east northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, moving toward the west-northwest at 18 mph with top sustained winds of about 80 mph. Forecasters said:

"THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE
AFFECTED BY IKE."

Here is the latest advisory on Ike. Here is the forecast storm track, which would seem to carry the storm into the Bahamas by Sunday morning. And here is the view from orbit.

Farther east, Josephine was wheezing a bit, and may not survive. Here's the forecasters' assessment:

"STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE REALLY WORKED A NUMBER ON
JOSEPHINE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AFTER LOOKING RATHER
IMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
SINCE RAPIDLY DEGRADED.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THERE IS NOW A
NOTICEABLE LACK OF ORGANIZATION." Read more here.

Here is the latest advisory on Josephine. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is how she looks from orbit. Pitiful.

In the meantime, Hanna, our most immediate threat, seemed to be getting better organized, and the air pressure at her center was falling - a sign of intensification. You can read more here. Hanna is moving north at 12 mph, and was expected to accelerate. Top sustained winds remain at about 60 mph, but she is still expected to become a hurricane (73 mph) as soon as tomorrow.

Here is the latest advisory. And here is the view from orbit. She looks rather lopsided, but must still be taken seriously. Here's the storm track: 

Continue reading "Ike now a Cat. 3 hurricane; Josephine weakens" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:16 PM | Permalink | Comments (9)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Tropical Storm Hanna seems to have pounded Haiti and its unfortunate people long enough. Forecasters say the storm finally seems to have made her long-predicted turn to the north. Maybe. Top sustained winds remain at about 60 mph, but the old girl is getting bigger, and some strengthening is still expected in the next day or two as the storm heads for the U.S. mainland.

Hanna has been hammered by wind shear, which has left her a bit disheveled and disorganized. But she is still predicted to get ahold of herself and regain hurricane strength and get a wiggle on today and tomorrow, reaching the Carolinas early Saturday. Here's AccuWeather.com's predictably more eager assessment.

Here's our forecast. We here in central Maryland seem to have a 10 to 20-percent chance of seeing tropical-storm-force winds in the next five days. Ocean City's risk goes to 40 percent.

NASA's hurricane page reports that South Carolina's governor is warning that coastal evacuations are possible there, and the National Guard may be activated:

"In Georgia voluntary evacuations of Georgia’s barrier islands and low-lying coastal areas may begin today, Wednesday, Sept. 3. Meanwhile, federal, state and local emergency response teams, the American Red Cross were already preparing for Hanna's arrival."

Here is the latest Hanna advisory. Here is the storm track. The centerline in the "cone of uncertainty" now takes Hanna off the coast as she passes our latitude. If the storm does take that track (it could still come up the west side of the bay) that's good news for those worried about storm winds piling water northward into the bay. It also takes the strongest winds offshore. 

And here is the looped view from space. Below is a NASA photo of Hanna, shot yesterday by the Earth-Observing Aqua satellite.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes