Looks like we can count on sunny skies and seasonably hot weather for the rest of the work week, but Nature will likely add thunder and lightning to the pyrotechnic celebrations over the long Holiday weekend. Also on our radar today is some storminess in the tropical Atlantic. More on that shortly.

Right now we're continuing to enjoy the benefits of the high pressure system that's brought us clear skies and relatively low humidities for the last couple of days. (Enjoyed a gorgeous day kayaking out on the Gunpowder River below Monkton yesterday - cool and dry. The river seemed a bit low, but we spotted an otter - a first for me - and plenty of geese and deer, blue herons and kingfishers. Trout seemed happy with the day, too.)

Tomorrow will be the hottest day of the week, with a forecast top of 92 degrees at BWI. 

The 90s are hot for any time of year in Baltimore. The average highs at this time of year are in the mid-to upper 80s. By Friday we'll be back down in the 80s. But the high will be shoving off to the south and east, and we'll come under the influence of a cool front slipping in from the north and west. The front will stall here Friday, and storm systems creeping along the front will mean an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms right through the weekend.

Forecasters out at Sterling say they're not expecting widespread severe storms and flooding out of these circumstances. But we could see "training" storms - thunderstorms and heavy showers that move across the region along a persistent track (like a train!). That often means large amounts of rain accumulating in some locations, while other spots see much less. It's too soon to know just where such training might occur.

In the meantime, hurricane forecasters are watching a tropical wave that's developing off the west coast of Africa, near the Cape Verde Islands. It's early in the 2008 season to see tropical weather cranking up in the far eastern Atlantic. Usually such storms - the sort that can grow to dangerous dimensions as they cross the tropical Atlantic - don't appear this early. They more typically become a problem in late August or September. Some of these "Cape Verdean" hurricanes can sweep north of the Caribbean and track up the East Coast, threatening landfalls from Florida to New England. We all remember one of them - Isabel - which struck in North Carolina and sent a storm surge up the Chesapeake. It flooded the Inner Harbor, Fells Point, Bowley's Quarters and many bayside communities back in September 2003.

But my guess is this is merely a prelude. Everybody's watching for ther season to get started. So far all we've seen has been Tropical Storm Arthur, an oddball that popped up on May 31, just before the official start of the Atlantic season on June 1. It was a small storm, but deadly. Fifteen inches of rain fell in places as its struck Belize and Central America. Five people died in Belize and damages there alone came to $78 million.

This storminess off the African coast is just the first patch to catch our attention since Arthur. But stay tuned.  The tropical Atlantic is pretty warm now. Here's the sea-surface temperature map. Anything above 27 degrees C. (the tan within the brownish band) is 80 degrees F or warmer. That's premium-grade hurricane fuel.   

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

So, here we are at the peak of the early-summer thunderstorm season. And, sure enough, we're looking at a five-day forecast that sounds like a broken record (remember records?).

The prognosticators out at Sterling say the delightful high-pressure system that has been parked here for several days, delivering warm, dry, sunny days and cool nights will begin to shove off after today.

As it departs, we will fall into the return flow from its clockwise rotation. That means we'll be getting warmer, wetter air from the South; highs will slide into the 90s; and all this heat and humidity will increase chances for afternoon and evening thundershowers every day from tomorrow through Monday.

Of course, Saturday is the only day we care about here. My daughter is getting married (did I mention that?) and the forecast calls for a high of 91 downtown (actually a tad cooler, or less stifling than out at BWI airport) with a 40 to 50 percent chance for showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

Shrewdly, we've planned the ceremony to be outdoors. So I'm looking at the "mostly cloudy" forecast and I'm thinking, 'OK, we don't need direct sunshine heating our guests, or our bride.'  Her mother and I were married in cloudy, muggy weather, and that's worked out fine.

And by 7 p.m. it should be a shade cooler than 91, right?. Maybe 85? We'll take 85. Rain? OK, we can handle rain if it comes early in the afternoon and leaves us time to wipe off the seats. Might even cool things off a bit. A rainbow would be a very cool bonus. MEMO TO WEDDING PLANNER: Look into the rainbow. A single arch will do. Alert the photographer. Just send me the bill.

Rain at showtime will chase us indoors, of course. That would be too bad, considering our investment in the location and the view, and the chairs and the platform. But at least we have a Plan B. Rain after the ceremony is OK. Rain with a power failure during the reception and eating and dancing, however, especially an extended power failure, is unacceptable. MEMO TO BGE: We'll need trucks and crews on standby. I'm thinking something like the Verizon network folks on those TV ads. Just send me the bill.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Forecasters out at Sterling are on the lookout for showers and thunderstorms today. They say conditions are ripe for some severe storms to develop as heat, humidity and an approaching cold front team up to make our afternoon and evening positively electric.

The cold front was out over the Ohio Valley early this morning. But it's headed this way, and due to crash through after 2 p.m. Showers and thunderstorms will boil up along the front or just ahead of it. This morning's discussion says "in the late afternoon/evening storms should begin to develop along/ahead of the actual frontal boundary. Damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible within any severe storm that develops."

You can track conditions in downtown Baltimore via The Sun's own weather station, at Calvert & Centre streets.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms could even linger into Tuesday. But as high pressure works its way into the region, Wednesday begins to look like the best bet for outdoor activity this week. Temperatures will be close to normal for this time of year - near 87 degrees. But humidities should be relatively low, and sunny skies will dominate.

Then things begin to slip. As the high moves offshore, we get into the familiar "return flow," meaning that the clockwise circulation around the high begins to draw more hot, humid air up from the South. That, in turn, increases our risks for showers and thunderstorms. Forecasters put that risk at 30 percent for every day from Thursday through Sunday. Daytime highs will creep to 90 by Thursday and hang in that neighborhood right through the weekend.

Sooprise! Sooprise! Hot and humid on the Chesapeake in the summertime! What were we thinking when we scheduled an outdoor wedding for June 28? NOTE TO WEDDING PLANNER: Get more ice for the beer. Just send me the bill.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Alright, here's the deal. My daughter is getting married next Saturday, and we are beginning our weather-watch this weekend. The National Weather Service forecasters out at Sterling make their local forecasts a week out, which means next Saturday's date is just now coming up on the screen.

So far, the week ahead looks relatively mild, with seasonable highs in the mid-80s, and a 30- to 60-percent risk for showers and thunderstorms nearly every day and every night through Tuesday. Then things get even better. No rain, no lightning, just mostly sunny skies and mid-80s highs through Friday.

But it's Saturday we care about, folks. The wedding is outdoors, at 7 p.m. It's the evening after the latest sunset of the year, so the sun will still be quite high. But temperatures should be moderating by then. I'm looking for 80 degrees or cooler, please and thank you. There's no AC under that white gown. Thunderstorms are OK so long as they come after we've gone inside to party. (And so long as the power doesn't go out. That happened at a wedding we attended last year. Not good. Paying a DJ. Need the juice.)

We'll even welcome a few clouds. Cuts the direct sunshine and cools the guests. A nice breeze would be desirable, say 5 mph or so. Enough to push the mosquitoes away, but not enough to blow out the wedding day hairdos or knock over the flowers.

LA Times file photo 

MEMO TO WEDDING PLANNER: See above. Think you can manage all that? Very important! Just send me the bill.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
                    

Another fine morning in the Land of Pleasant Living. Temperatures will hang below normal for today, with even cooler weather on tap for the balance of the work week. Sunny skies this morning, growing a bit cloudier later today as some upper atmosphere changes work themselves out.

The forecasters out at Sterling say today's weather will "usher in  a period of quite pleasant weather as we approach the solstice ... Dewpoints in the 50s today, temperatures 75-80. Breezy northwest winds. Enjoy." The summer solstice occurs at 7:59 p.m. EDT on Friday - the 20th (not the 19th, as I mistakenly said in a Weather Page item last Saturday). 

And here's a bonus. The west and northwest breezes will keep away the smoke from those wildfires burning down in Virginia and North Carolina. We've been getting some reports from vacationers and residents down there who have been dealing with the smoke. Not a pretty picture.

It's not perfect. We have a "slight" chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and Thursday, and again on Saturday. But they're not a big worry. Mostly we're looking at pleasant temperatures, sunny to partly cloudy days.

Tonight and tomorrow evening we can also enjoy a spectacular full moon rising in the east. Astronomers say it will be perfectly full at 1:30 p.m. tomorrow, so at moonrise either tonight or Wednesday night it will be almost equally full. Moonrise in Baltimore is at 8:13 p.m. tonight, and 9:03 Wednesday. It's 10 minutes earlier in OC.

This is the 4th full moon since the Vernal Equinox, and before the Summer Solstice. That presents a problem.

Names for full moons (like the Harvest Moon or Hunter's Moon) are only available for three per season. In the old days, calendar writers reserved the term "blue moon" for these oddballs, and applied it to the third full moon in a season that happened to have four, according to Guy Ottewell's Astronomic Calendar. That would have made the May 20 full moon the Blue Moon, and this week's full moon would be the Flower, Rose or Strawberry Moon. (It's only in relatively recent times - since 1946 - that Blue Moon has been applied to any second full moon occuring in a calendar month.)

I think I've already used those names here for the May moon, so I'm stuck. This will either be a second Flower Moon, or a Blue Moon. Take your pick.  Or suggest your own moon name here. Like Smog Moon, Muggy Moon or Most Heat Moon.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Woke up cold last night. We'd shut off the AC and opened the windows as the evening temps began to slide below our thermostat settings.

By 2 a.m. or so, there was a cold breeze drifting through the house, and it was enough to demand we pull up a blanket. You can thank that little front that rumbled through Baltimore Saturday night with a brief thunderstorm. Behind it came yesterday's more seasonable temperatures and better sleeping weather. You can see the storm's impact on temperatures in data from The Sun's weather station for Saturday. 

Today there's another cold front due. Forecasters say we should expect showers and thunderstorms with it. Some may be severe. But behind THIS one is even cooler weather. Starting Tuesday we can look forward to days with highs only in the upper 70s to low 80s through the weekend. That's a couple of ticks below normal for this time of year in Baltimore.

Best of all, the nighttime lows will sink into the 60s again tonight, and then to the 50s through Thursday night. We should be able to leave those AC compressors idle at night all week long, and pocket the savings on our next electric bill. We need the break. We're running 88 percent above normal on cooling degree-days so far this month. That means the demand for energy to cool our homes is running 88 percent above the long-term average for June in Baltimore. Ouch. 

The cooler weather will provide a nice comfort zone for a pair of Swedes we know who are arriving in Baltimore this week to attend a Fells Point wedding. A hot summer for them is 70 degrees and sunny. Venturing into a Chesapeake summer, for them, is like spending a month in the Amazon. And an extended dip in ocean water without brain freeze is a marvel.

But beware: these people change into (and out of) their swim suits on the beach. See if you can spot them. They're headed for the Delaware Shore this weekend, 380 years after Sweden's first (1638) landing in Delaware (right) in an abortive attempt to colonize the New World. This attempt will likely fail as well. We welcome them anyway.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Can't beat this. Sunny skies, highs about normal in the mid-80s, with low humidity. The only fly in the ointment might be some smoke. Wildfires in North Carolina, triggered by lightning, have been sending clouds of smoke out over the Atlantic. (See satellite image below) The fires aren't out yet, so if winds shift around to the south in the next day or so, as forecast, some of that smoke could blow our way.

Otherwise, it's late-spring weather that can't be beat.

Until Saturday. That's when the next cold (or at least cooler) front slides by, increasing cloudiness in advance on Friday, and leading to increased chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Some could be severe, though probably not on the scale of Tuesday's storms.

High pressure moves in behind the front, dropping temperatures a bit and clearing the skies. Monday brings yet another front, another chance for showers, and a stretch of "unsettled" weather. Look for periods of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Daytime high temperatures could even fall below long-term averages, with highs in the 70s by Wednesday. Cool.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Forecasters out at Sterling say the atmosphere is beginning to stir, creating the convection that will lead to strong thunderstorms later today. I can't see it on the radar. But I'll take their word for it.

Severe thunderstorm watches have been posted all across Maryland from Allegany County to the Bay. Here's the "special weather statement" issued earlier this afternoon. It gets your attention:

"A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...BREAKING OUR HEAT WAVE...BUT NOT WITHOUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND CONTINUOUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE COMMON WITH THESE STORMS.

"AT 1:00 PM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BETWEEN WASHINGTON DC AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL
EXTENT AND MAKE FOR A MESSY AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR FOR THE
BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREAS...AND WILL LIKELY DOWN MORE
TREES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY."

Yikes! Be careful out there.  Here's how to prepare for bad storms.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

With any luck at all, tonight will see the end of this nasty late-spring heat wave. Look for increasing clouds as the day wears on, and all this hot, humid, ozone-laced soup begins to clash with an approaching cool front from the west.

This morning's discussion from Sterling says it all. "When a period of heat like this one we've been experiencing breaks ... there's usually a price to pay in the form of severe thunderstorms. This afternoon and evening may follow that idea."

Forecasters are expecting scattered showers and thunderstorms by late this afternoon, extending into the early evening. Some storms could be severe, with large hail, and damaging winds for those unlucky enough to be under them.

For the next two days, forecasters say we can expect "a couple of really nice days ... with low humidity." Baltimore traffic cop Mike Nichols, above, may be grateful for a break in the weather.

But it will stay hot until the storms blast through, with a forecast high of 98 degrees at BWI. The NWS missed its bet on yesterday's high The forecast pushed it to 99 or even 100 degrees, but the high mark at the airport was "only" 94 degrees. For all our misery, no records broken here.

But it was a good deal hotter in a few spots. Here's a map of unofficial readings from across the region. (Anybody else having problems loading the NWS/Sterling web pages? They say they're not aware of any problems. I'd bet it's just high volume swamping their servers.)

At first glance that 108-degree reading up in Pennsylvania looks bogus. It could be. But we reached 100 degrees here at The Sun's weather station at Calvert & Centre streets.

Other amateur stations also boiled up over the century mark. Here's one in Odenton that reached 104 degrees just after 3 p.m.

Once the front and the storms move through, we can look forward to daytime highs in the mid-80s through the weekend, and overnight lows in the 60s. Open those windows! Kill the AC! There could be some more showers Saturday as another cool front drifts past. Then, next week, the forecast promises "dry and refreshingly cooler (weather) under the influence of a deep upper low over eastern Canada."

For now, heat advisories remain in effect until 8 p.m. today, with high temps between 95 and 100 degrees. .

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
                    

The first really hot (and humid) weather of the summer season is bearing down on us for this weekend. Forecasters are warning of mostly sunny skies and high temperatures around 95 degrees on Saturday and Sunday - AND Monday.

There is also some slight risk of a few showers, but forecasters didn't want to dilute the impact of what they called their "screaming message" - "It will be seriously hot ... Summer WX [weather] is here."

For now, we can expect another humid, showery day, although the risk of severe weather is diminished from yesterday's onslaught.  But temperatures will remain in the 80s through Friday.

These showers are focused along a cold front that has stalled over us this week. But the front will be drifting northward as a warm front today. That will usher in the hot weather for the weekend as we fall under a southwest flow.

Forecasts for highs around 95 degrees introduce the possibility of setting new records this weekend. Here are the record daily highs for Baltimore for June 7-9:

June 7: 96 degrees, set in 1999

June 8:  97 degrees, set in 1999

June 9: 98 degrees, set in 1933.

The highs will ease some later next week, but not by much. The AC, and power plants across the region will be cranking hard by mid-week. I confess that we finally caved in this week and switched on the AC - as much to cut the indoor humidity as to cool the house.

Yesterday's powerful thunderstorms and possible tornadoes caused a great deal of damage - and plenty of traffic havoc and scary moments - across the region. If you were out in it, you know what I mean. Here is this morning's account in The Sun. And here is how it looked at The Sun's weather station.

The National Weather Service keeps a tally of storm damage reports. Yesterday's list includes mentions of storm winds over hurricane strength and hail nearly an inch in diameter. (If this link doesn't get you to a long list of damage reports, click on the next blue numbers across the top of the NWS page that does pop up.)

On a personal note, my apologies for not having any weather comments on today's print weather page (or tomorrow's). My mom passed away Tuesday at the age of 95 after a very full and happy life. She is now re-organizing the bridge games in Heaven. You can read more, if you care to, here. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (8)
                    

Couldn't order a prettier day than this one. That's a sparkling clear view from orbit. High pressure is moving across the region, bringing mild, dry air out of the north. Humidities here at The Sun have fallen from 65 percent around dawn to the 30s. Overnight lows dipping into the 50s tonight will once again bring us good sleeping weather. But like all good things, this too must come to an end.

The high will keep us sunny Tuesday, even as it moves off to the east. By Wednesday a cold front will move down and drape across our region by late Tuesday, and stall there. Combined with a flow of warm, moist air from the South, temperatures and humidities will climb as the week progresses. As that wet air collides with the stalled cold front, we'll be in line for several days of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for severe storms will come late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temperatures Friday could top 90 degrees for the first time this season.

Another high-pressure system will move in for the weekend, bringing sunshine and temperatures well into the 80s.

The showery weather at mid-week will likely obscure our view of a nice pass by the International Space Station and shuttle Discovery on Thursday. We should have better luck with another, nicer flyby on Saturday evening, and perhaps again on Sunday as the station appears to fly right past Mars and Saturn. Stay tuned for details.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:17 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

The photo shot yesterday by NASA's Terra Earth Observing satellite shows just how brilliantly clear skies were yesterday over the Northeast. (Wish they skip superimposing the state borders every now and then, and let us see it the way astronauts do!) Here's a closer look.

But high clouds will start to slip in later today as the next cold front and low-pressure system begin to approach from the Great Lakes by early Saturday.

That system will draw warm, moist air up from the Gulf of Mexico, and bring it into collision with the cool air from the north and west, triggering areas of fog tonight and showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon. Chance of precip tomorrow is 70 percent, slipping to 40 percent Saturday night.

Rain amounts are forecast to stick between a tenth- and a quarter-inch - not enough to push this May into the record books for total rainfall. Only a cloudburst over BWI would make up the inch-plus needed to break the 1989 record. But second-best is still pretty impressive:

May 1989: 8.71 inches

May 2008*: 7.52 inches

May 1894: 7.26 inches

May 1960:  7.10 inches

May 1886:  7.07 inches   

* Through 5/29

National Weather Service

Sunday looks sunny, as do Monday and Tuesday. More showers are expected by mid-week.

Image courtesy of the Space Science and Engineering Center, Univ. of Wisconsin

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

I don't think we need to write much about the weather forecast for the next few days. Nothing but warm, sunshiney days and starry nights, from what I can see. Saturday's another story.

Forecasters out at Sterling say they're looking at another cold front moving through for the weekend, and it looks stronger than the one that moved through with a few thundershowers last night. That is raising the spectre of severe storms, with the chance for lightning, hail and damaging winds. They're putting the precip chances at 50 percent. No handicapping on the "severe" part yet.

A heavy storm over BWI could send Baltimore's rainfall totals for the month over the May record of 8.71 inches, set in 1989. We're at 7.52 inches today. It will be a stretch, but it's not inconceivable. (The May average at BWI is 3.89 inches.) 

This is already the second-wettest May here since record-keeping began in 1871.

More showers are in the forecast for Sunday, June 1. But the chances are smaller at 30 percent. That figures. Saturday is my only day off this weekend. Gotta work on Sunday.

That's Sun photog Karl Merton Ferron's photo above, shot downtown in July 2007.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Say what you want about today's gray skies and threat of rain. But at least it had the decency to hold off until after we enjoyed a perfect Memorial Day weekend. The satellite photo above shows the clouds that have moved down over us from the Great Lakes.

The high yesterday at BWI Marshall was 85 degrees, with strong sunshine. Hard to imagine a nicer day. That was 8 degrees warmer than the long-term average (77) for the date at BWI. The record is 94 degrees, set back in 1914.

Forecasters say we could go even higher this afternoon, reaching 88 degrees at the airport as warm air continues to move in from the south and west ahead of an approaching cold front.

The clash of warm air and cold air along that front brings with it a 60 percent chance for rain, with a risk of thunderstorms in the late afternoon and early evening. Some could be severe along the Chesapeake Bay and in the Baltimore and Annapolis region, forecasters say. If we get one, watch for damaging winds and large hail. Here's the Northeast radar loop.

Behind the front, we can expect sharply cooler temperatures, with strong north winds dropping temperatures into the low 50s tonight, and maybe the upper 40s in the normally cooler spots. Tomorrow will look much different than today, with clear, sunny skies returning, and a high around 70 degrees. That's cooler than last night's low of 74 degrees here at Calvert & Centre streets.

That's good news. It was starting to get uncomfortably warm and humid in the house late yesterday. I was tempted to turn on the AC. But I resisted. We've been enjoying the cool weather this month, and with no need to heat or cool the place, our BGE bill was the lowest of the year so far.  We've had just 12 cooling degree-days so far this month, well below the long-term average of 50 for this time of year at BWI. If only this could continue...

The sunshine should stick around for the rest of the work-week as high pressure builds back into the region. Daytime temperatures will gradually warm back into the 80s until the next frontal system brings showers and thunderstorms for the weekend, forecasters say.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
                    

                                                       A chilly Ocean City in May 2007 - Sun photo by Glenn Fawcett 

Many neighborhood swimming pools will be opening up for the season this weekend. And a few brave souls may be ready to take a plunge into the Chesapeake or the Atlantic as the Memorial Day holiday marks the unofficial start of summer in Maryland.

But it's going to be a breath-taking experience. Here's how Andy Woodcock - a National Weather Service forecaster out at Sterling, put it in this morning's forecast discussion:

"FUNNY THING...WHEN I WOKE UP THIS MORNING THE FIRST THING I THOUGHT
OF WAS "COMMUNITY SWIMMING POOLS WILL BE DOWNRIGHT COLD THIS
WEEKEND." NO IDEA WHY I THOUGHT THAT...BUT CERTAINLY TRUE. WEATHER LOOKS TO
BE QUITE NICE FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BUT W/ OVERNIGHT LOWS STILL IN
40S...AND PLENTY OF COLD RAINFALL DURING THE PAST FEW WEEKS...THAT WATER WILL
BE CHILLY. THOMAS POINT LIGHT WATER ONLY 60. BRR."

Well, our low overnight here at Calvert & Centre streets was 52 degrees, but out at the airport they reported a low of 45 degrees - almost 10 degrees below the long-term average for this time of year. The forecast for tonight puts the BWI low at 47 degrees, creeping to 49 Friday night and 51 by Saturday night.

Daytime highs are running about 5 degrees too cool for this time of year. But the forecast has them rising to  the mid-80s by Memorial Day. If you're headed for the beaches, however, don't expect to see temperatures that warm. Here's OC's forecast.

As for water temperatures,  Ocean City is reporting 58-degree water at the Inlet. The readings are 60 degrees at Annapolis and Tolchester. A defibrillator is advised.

As for the pools, well, I'd advise alerting the lifeguards before you dive in.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:49 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

It's a long way 'til Friday, but if the National Weather Service forecast holds up, we can look forward to some terrific weather for the long Memorial Day weekend - sunny skies and seasonable highs in the 70s. But first we have to sit through a couple of days of showers as a Canadian storm system sends a series of weather disturbances across the region.

Here's the deal. It's going to be a bit cool, but sunny today, as high pressure builds behind the cold front that passed by yesterday. That front is what brought us all the showers, and the dramatic clearing late in the day. Here's the link to near-real-time data from The Sun's weather station at Calvert & Centre streets.

The sunny skies and gusty winds today will yield to increasing clouds and a chance for showers late tonight. The low over southeastern Canada is turning counter-clockwise like a water wheel, and it will deliver the first packet of showers tomorrow, with rain likely in the morning before it rotates out to sea.

After a short break and a chilly night in the 40s, the next package arrives on Wednesday, with a renewed chance for showers into Wednesday evening. (No risk of an overnight record low; the BWI records are still in the 30s at this time of year.)

But then the Canadian low that's driving all this drifts away, and we come under the influence of more Canadian high pressure, forecasters out at Sterling assure us. That will mean cool, clear, dry weather from Thursday right through the long weekend. They're forecasting highs in the mid-70s - at BWI - about right for this time of year. 

Friday's a comp day for me. They had me working Sunday writing obits and covering a rained-out Studio 6001 art show in Mount Washington. (That's Sun Photog Ken Lam's photo below. We both got pretty wet out there, but the show's been rescheduled for this Sunday noon to 5 p.m.)

So now I'm looking at a four-day holiday weekend ahead with perfect weather. Hoo-wah! Anybody have any suggestions for how we should enjoy the weather this weekend? Or will the old hammock be just about right?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

We'll get one more day to dry out from the weekend storms, forecasters say. Then, a new cold front and associated low-pressure system will bring new rains. You can see the system in the blue and red areas of this satellite image. The precip may pose issues for areas still coping with high water. But for the most part rainfall amounts will not be anything close to what we saw last weekend.

This morning's discussion from Sterling says clouds will thicken this afternoon, and the first chances for renewed shower activity will come late in the day and evening on Thursday. They're calling it scattered and isolated at first, becoming more widespread overnight into Friday before ending after noon. They're talking about a half-inch of new rain at the most. But for some, that's more than enough.

"Flooding concerns would remain ... for the trouble areas of the past few days across north central Maryland and extreme northern Virginia," the folks at Sterling said.  "Needing only around a half-inch of rain to raise area rivers to action stages." On the other hand, they added, "with area rivers beginning to drop out of flood stages and another day to recover ... the incoming rainfall may not be enough to raise concerns, but in a few isolated areas."

Coastal flooding remains a concern, too, as heavy runoff and southerly winds keep lots of water in the bay. Coastal flood advisories are posted through Thursday morning. Watch out for unusually high tides along the bay. There's a coastal flood warning up for Dorchester County, on the Eastern Shore.

Beyond the new rain, we should expect winds to pick up on Saturday morning as the passing low gets wound a little tighter. The weekend looks partly to mostly sunny, with daytime highs near 70 degrees, as the storms move away.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)