We've been watching these flood stories coming out of Iowa and some other very wet places this week. Very amazing and very sad for those affected. But I can't help wondering why we continue to allow people to rebuild in flood plains, when we know they will, eventually, be washed out again. These rivers, and the oceans, are far bigger than we are, they they don't give a whit about our attempts to colonize their ancient territory.

Seems to me there have been some efforts to buy out a few of these places, and rebuild communities on higher ground. But it's clear we don't do enough of it. Instead, we spend our money on (ultimately) futile attempts to hold back the rivers and defy the storm tides. New Orleans is a classic example of a place that should never have been settled. Yet we rebuild, spending billions on levees that break and beaches that wash away, and flood insurance that just keeps on giving.

Consider this from Friends of the Earth:

"In 1966, a report to Congress by the Task Force on Federal Flood Control Policy gave the nation a lesson in flood control: don’t rebuild in high-hazard zones like coastlines and river deltas.  This lesson was reiterated in the 1973 Report of the National Water Commission.  Both distinguished panels found that despite the enormous flood control expenditures, flood damages were increasing. Both panels recommended that more attention be paid to relocation out of flood zones and called for greater emphasis on non-engineering solutions.  There is a growing body of evidence that healthy wetlands, in-tact dune systems and other natural ecosystems reduce storm and flood damage, but far too many tax dollars have been spent to destroy these natural systems to facilitate more development."

FOE makes the argument that global warming will make all this worse. But it's not necessary to invoke global warming here, although there are plenty of people ready to argue that more extreme precipitation and warmer, higher oceans will only increase the frequency of flooding events. Set all that aside. These rivers and shores have been flooding for eons. We're the new element there. And we're only building more costly infrastructure and adding more population to the riversides and coastlines. That's what's costing us so much more each time these events occur. And that's just dumb.

Anybody have any thoughts on this? Should we just help these people rebuild? Or should we help them move to higher ground? Leave the farm fields. Floods are good for them in the long run. But move the homes out of the rivers' path.

You can read more here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (17)
                    

Indiana residents are dealing with terrible flooding. And even if your house isn't under water, just getting around when roads are flooded can be a big headache.

But if there's one thing to remember when your world goes under water, it's this: TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. The water in the street might look shallow and fordable in a heavy car. But surprisingly little water, especially if it's moving, can strand you, or pick you up and sweep you downstream to meet your Maker. Even in hurricanes, it's inland flooding - not storm surge or high winds - that kills the most people. And most die trying to drive on flooded roads.

The couple in this You Tube video seem to think that driving around, sight-seeing during a flood, with Baby Keller in the car is a fine way to pass the time. It's not. They're fools. And I trust the kids will survive in spite of their parents.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Tidal flooding along the Chesapeake is easing this morning. High water was flooding low-lying sections of Alexandria as southerly winds and heavy runoff from weekend storms piled water into the Cheapeake and its tidal rivers. A flood warning was issued for Alexandria and the District of Columbia.

This tide chart from Annapolis shows how far the tide readings had risen above predictions. But the red line is now falling closer to astronomical predictions. Coastal flooding advisories remain in place for today along the Western Shore of the bay, but should expire this afternoon.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The Susquehanna River, swollen by recent rains and melting snow in Pennsylvania and New York, appears to have crested at the Conowingo Dam, with only minor flooding overnight in Port Deposit. Flood warnings for Harford County have been dropped, but a watch continues in Cecil County, largely because of heavy rains expected late today and tomorrow. 

Folks along the river remain on watch. Flooding continues in Marietta, Pa., about 35 miles upstream from Conowingo, but the water is receding. The water levels remain high, but discharge from the dam had slowed by this morning to less than 300,000 cubic feet per second. It is also well below the record daily discharge for this date - March 7 - of 462,000 cf/s in 1979. Here's the discharge graph:

As a pair of potent storms approach the region this afternoon, we all can expect heavy rain through the night and into tomorrow. 

Continue reading "Susquehanna crests, more rain due" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

Sometimes parking is hard to find. But too often you drive across acres of empty spaces before you settle on a spot. Rain on those empty acres collects pollutants and rushes them into the storm sewers, and on to the Chesapeake Bay.

Purdue University scientists have done some calculating, and they've found that empty spaces in the region they surveyed outnumber actual drivers by three-to-one. Tons of oil and heavy metals are swept off the blacktop when it rains and sluiced into the nearest waterways.  Loads of salt are spread each winter to keep the space free of snow and ice, not to mention the fuel burned to shove the snow aside. The result is a degraded environment and more urban flash flooding. 

I know there are rules about how much parking is needed for each square foot of retail space. But do some builders go overboard? Could we revisit those rules and see if they could be modified under certain circumstances to reduce the amount of impervious, paved surfaces we build? Could we provide a tax credit, or some sort of incentive for retailers to dig up unneeded blacktop and plant something that would absorb more runoff?

Am I dreaming? Does the WalMart out in Hunt Valley really need parking all the way out to the Light Rail station? Do you have an expanse of parking you drive by every day that is never filled? Leave a comment and nominate your favorite overkill-parking lot. Send me a digital photo and I'll post it.    

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

GPS is a very cool technology. If I had had the dough, I would have ordered my Prius with it. But there is always a need for a functioning human brain to provide backup. A British woman could have used more cranial software recently. The GPS in her Mercedes said there was a road ahead, so she plunged ahead, despite data entering her eyeballs that told her brain the road was under water, submerged by heavy rains.

The water grabbed the L96,000 (that's $188,000; is that even possible?) SL500 and tossed it downstream. The woman managed to escape, was rescued, and ... well, you can read about it here. Take-home lesson: If the road ahead is flooded, turn around, don't drown, no matter what your GPS tells you.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
                    

The National Weather Service has posted flood warnings for parts of Baltimore, Carroll and Frederick counties. Flooding is reported in the Gunpowder valley. Here's the warning.

The storm is moving past our region this morning. The barometer appears to have bottomed out, and flood threats should ease. Here's the latest forecast. In the meantime, if you can do it safely, we'd love to see your photos of flooding in the region. Just register and upload your digital images to our Readers Photos page.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

With last weekend's raking efforts ruined by subsequent leaf falls, and heavy rain on tap tomorrow as a strong low-pressure system approaches from the Deep South, forecasters are advising Marylanders today to make sure their storm drains are clear of leaves. They're expecting 1 to 2 inches of rain to fall in the next 24 hours, enough to make the creeks rise and cause minor flooding where drainage is poor.

AccuWeather expects less than an inch here. Here's the radar loop.

The storm system, thanks to its counter-clockwise rotation, will also be pulling strong winds out of the south or southeast and straight up the Chesapeake Bay. That will blow the water up the bay and hold it there after high tide, causing those tides to run at least a foot above normal. Minor coastal flooding might be the result. Here's how they're running now - already a foot or so above predictions at 3:30 p.m. Wednesday. (Just click on "MD" and then the gauge station of your choice.)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Persistent southeast winds up the bay have prevented some water from exiting at low tide. That, combined with an approaching low pressure system, has prompted forecasters to advise Marylanders to watch for unusually high tides today and tonight - 1 to 2 feet above predicted levels.

Here is how the current tides are behaving. (Just click on Maryland, and choose your favorite tide gauge location.)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:47 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

With the exception of the lower Susquehanna and Potomac, most rivers in Maryland appear to be falling this morning after cresting near or below their flood stages. Here is a rundown from the National Weather Service. You can check the status of your favorite streams here. Fewer are running at record volumes for the date today. You can almost hear the state's drain gurgling.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Flash flood warnings are posted tonight across most of western Maryland as torrential rains continue to pound the region. Emergency officials were investigating a suspected tornado, which damaged structures earlier this evening down in Chaptico, in St. Mary's County. Voluntary evacuations are also taking place along portions of the bay shore in Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties as abnormally high tides cause minor to moderate coastal flooding.

The forecast map shows a broad swath of flood-warned areas. Water vapor images from space show plenty of moisture continuing to stream north across the state, from Washington County east to Carroll, and south the Montgomery and Prince George's.

The heaviest rains - described as "torrential" - appeared to be falling in the Catoctins, according to the weather service. Flooding was expected in Wolfsville, Pleasant Walk, Bolivar and Arnoldtown. Heavy rain was also reported this evening in Rockville, Emmitsburg and Mt. Airy.

"Significant" rises were reported in the Potomac and Rappahannock rivers. Little Falls, on the Potomac, was expected to surpass flood stage by Thursday morning and runoff from the rains flowed out of the tributaries and reached the main stem of the river. The Potomac was expected to rise above flood stage at Wisconsin Avenue in Washington by Thursday night.

Two to 4 more inches of rain were forecast tonight for Prince George's County, including Upper Marlboro, New Carrollton, College Park, Beltsville and Hyattsville (which saw some of the heaviest rain over the past four days -more than a foot).

All that said, it doesn't look - at least from the radar image - that this rain can last long into the morning. The echoes seem to be closing in on our region, with drier air close behind. By this time Wednesday, we're going to be much more focused on rising rivers than rainfall.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:03 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1)
                    

Looks like we're in for a hosing over the next day or two. The National Weather Service has posted flash flood watches for all of Maryland west of the Chesapeake Bay (the green counties on this map).  And the beaches at Ocean City won't be spared. Here's the Shore forecast. A Parcheesi weekend ahead on Condo Row.

Blame the cold front that moved in with the thunderstorms last night. It's predicted to stall over the region today, placing us in the middle of the tracks as wave after wave of showers and thunderstorms roll up the front. The "training" effect will cause rainfall - heavy at times during thunderstorms - to pile up. Creeks will rise and some flooding is expected.

We're likely to remain on the tracks well into next week.

The first thunderstorm struck very early this morning, producing loud thunder and plenty of rain in some locations. We had 0.64 inch on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville - most of it falling sometime around 1 a.m. The official rain gauge at BWI-Marshall clocked just a tenth of an inch between 1 a.m. and 5 a.m. The Washington Reagan Airport station reported 0.71 inch between 1 and 2 a.m.

We can expect much more later today and through the weekend. The forecast calls for as much as 2.75 inches in the Baltimore region. Could be more or less depending on where you are, and where the sun breaks through to boil up the humidity and trigger storms. Take the umbrella.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:58 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

With the full moon approaching, it's a good time to be on the lookout for unusually high tides. And as it happens, with winds from the south earlier today driving water up into the bay and holding it there, high tides have indeed been running about a foot above predicted levels.

The NWS issued a coastal flood statement earlier today, warning of minor flooding in some spots along the western shore and on the tidal reaches of the Potomac River. And they're looking for even more water tomorrow morning as we get closer to Sunday's full moon. (The full moon in June is known as the Rose Moon, or the Strawberry Moon. Nice.)

Here's how the tides are running now in Baltimore. You can click on other stations, too. Pretty clear how much higher the observed tides have been in recent days that the predicted values.

Here are the upcoming high-tide times from the weather service:

ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...
ANNAPOLIS...3:07 THIS AFTERNOON AND 4:05 AM FRIDAY...
FORT MCHENRY...4:45 THIS AFTERNOON AND 5:43 AM FRIDAY...
BOWLEY BAR...5:36 THIS AFTERNOON AND 6:34 AM FRIDAY...
HAVRE DE GRACE...7:56 THIS EVENING AND 8:54 AM FRIDAY...

ON THE TIDAL POTOMAC...
GOOSE BAY PORT TOBACCO RIVER...2:27 PM AND 2:32 AM FRIDAY...
INDIAN HEAD...6:21 THIS EVENING AND 6:26 AM FRIDAY...
ALEXANDRIA...6:55 THIS EVENING AND 7:00 AM FRIDAY...
KEY BRIDGE GEORGETOWN...7:12 THIS EVENING AND 7:17 AM FRIDAY...

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:33 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

NASA's Terra Earth-observing satellite has captured photos of the aftermath of a broken dike in Romania this week. Heavy rains and melting snow in Central Europe have caused flooding along the Danube. The soaking weakened an earthen dike, which broke, flooding farmland and forcing the evacuation of hundreds of residents. That brought the number of people evacuated from flooded land to 16,000.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (16)
                    

The National Weather Service has issued coastal flood statements noting the risk of minor flooding - 6 to 18 inches above predicted tide levels - at high tide along the western shore of the Chesapeake today. Northwest winds should blow the bay water southward and resolve the problem by tomorrow. Here's a look at the tide patterns in Maryland. Just click on "MD."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:41 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (4)
                    

Stiff winds out of the south promise to push water up the bay and create unusually high tides on Friday. The National Weather Service is warning that tidal waters will rise as much as two feet above predicted levels along Maryland's western shore, causing some minor coastal flooding at high tide. Here are some sites with tide forecasts and observations. Watch the water rise without getting your feet wet.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (1)
                    

I know, it's hard to imagine. But it's been raining in torrents out in Hawaii, with up to 6 inches of rain. Flash flooding on Oahu is causing some considerable damage. Here's a brief story. And here is a link to some amazing CNN footage. You'll need to look for the link under "Watch Free Video," and click on "Flash flooding hits Hawaii."  (NOTE: This video is no longer available from CNN.) The heavy rain now seems to be moving away from the western islands.

Here's the island state's very soggy forecast. And here's more

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (2)
                    

The National Weather Service continues to issue flood watches through late Saturday for most of Maryland west of the Bay, Northern Virginia, and eastern portions fo West Virginia. The wet weather arrives with remnants of Tropical Storm Tammy and an approaching cold front. Communities along the Blue Ridge, and to its west, will likely see the heaviest rainfall amounts. Here is the watch issued for our region this morning:

359 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2005

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...MUCH OF NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...AND PORTIONS OF MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

* FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON

* A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC LATER TODAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE
ADVANCING FRONT. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE ON SATURDAY.

* TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.

* THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
STREAMS...AND URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RIVER FLOODING IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING
BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE FLOOD OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Heavy thunderstorms stalled over St. Mary's County are dumping copious rains - 3 to 4 inches so far this morning - over parts of the county in Southern Maryland. The National Weather Service has issued flash flood warnings for the area.

Here's the radar image.

7:15 p.m. update: The threat of heavy rains from showers and thunderstorms prompted the weather service to issue hazardous weather advisories for much of the state east of the Blue Ridge, extending into the evening. There is a risk of local flooding

Posted by at 12:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Torrential rain in China - as much as 8 inches in 24 hours - has killed at least 88 people, forced hundreds of thousands from their homes and devastated vast tracts of farmland. Here's the story.

Posted by at 7:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Flooding along the lower reaches of the Susquehanna River was easing this morning as water from heavy weekend rains continued to move down the watershed and into the Chesapeake Bay. Here are the latest advisories from the National Weather Service.

Posted by at 9:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Recent rains have swollen the Susquehanna River and forced the operators of the Conowingo Dam to open more crest gates. 15 of the 40 gates are now open and minor flooding is expected in Port Deposit and Havre de Grace.

You can keep an eye on conditions at the dam with this site from the USGS.

Posted by at 9:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Today's heavy rains have prompted the National Weather Service to issue a flood statement for our region. Up to 2 inches of rain could fall before the system clears out tomorrow morning.

You can keep an eye on rainfall totals here.

Posted by at 12:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)