Peter West, a spokesman for the National Science Foundation's programs in Antarctica, just sent this dispatch from McMurdo Station, where it is mid-summer, and snowing:

Continue reading "Weather report from McMurdo Station" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued a release noting that 2007 is on track to become another of the Top 10 warmest years on record, both in the contiguous United States and around the globe.

It notes that globally, "including 2007, seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1997."  Here's more.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:09 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
                    

It's been a dream of navigators since the 15th century - a regular sea route to the Orient without the long, arduous sail around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn. For centuries, snow and ice blocked the Northwest Passage across the top of Canada. Indeed, it made it impossible to know whether it even existed. No one had sailed the route until a century ago, and the way was blocked by ice too much to make it practical.

Now, thanks to unprecedented summer melting of the Arctic sea ice, that sea route has nearly opened to blue water this month.

Here's a satellite view of the northern ice cap, showing the dark blue all-water path through the islands of northern Canada reaches nearly to the open water north of Alaska. The ice has also nearly melted clear of the entire Siberian coast.

Here's more on this summer's record meltdown on the Arctic Ocean. And there's still a few weeks to go before the Arctic Ocean begins to refreeze.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
                    

The water level in Lake Superior has been slipping for years, and is now nearing record lows, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Monitors put the current lake level at 183.028 meters, close to the record low for August of 182.97 meters.

The all-time record low water measurement for Superior - the largest of the Great Lakes - is 182.69 meters, set in April 1926. The record low water for September and October is 183.06 meters, NOAA says, so there is some possibility a new record low could be set this fall.

There are a variety of possible explanations for the falling water levels. The region has been experiencing unusually warm winters in recent years. Higher temperatures and reduced ice cover in winter causes greater rates of evaporation from the lake. And reduced snow cover has meant less runoff into the lake.

Some observers are also blaming years of drought and human factors, including water diversion and dredging, which has increased drainage from the lake. 

The drop in water levels has reduced shipping on the lake as carriers try to lighten their loads to avoid running aground. Marinas are also having to dredge or close as lake levels fall.

You can read more about it here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

There is virtually no scientific debate anymore about whether temperatures are rising around the globe, and little more about whether human activity is playing a significant part in that global warming. The larger debate now is over how much should or can be done to reduce mankind's contributions to a worrisome process that is well underway.

Environment Maryland, a statewide environmental advocacy group, this week released a report on rising temperatures in the United States at the start of the 21st century, and issued a call for action on a list of remedies that could be advanced in the halls of local, state and national legislatures, and at home.

Among the findings in the group's report - "Feeling the Heat: Global Warming and Rising Temperatures in the United States" - is that 2006 was the second-warmest year on record for the lower 48 states. Some 87 percent of the weather stations studied saw average temperatures in 2006 that were at least a half-degree above the 30-year norm.

The average temperature at BWI during 2006 was 2.9 degrees above the 30-year average recorded between 1971 and 2000.

Well, one warm year does not constitute a trend. The report also notes that the years 2000-2006 at BWI also averaged more than the 30-year norm, by 1.4 degrees. That's not conclusive of anything either. But the science behind the reality of global warming is very compelling, so we won't quibble. Environment Maryland is merely trying to make a point, and to make that point relevant to its constituency - the people of Maryland.

Global warming is real, they're arguing, and it will have far-reaching consequences for our society, for our health and our economy, and for the environment of which we are a part. And, there are things we can and should do to reduce our destructive influence on the planet that gave us life and still must sustain us.

Most of it we have heard or read before. But it is well worth a refresher. You can read the report's Executive Summary here. And there is a link on that page to the full report via pdf file.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

NASA Administrator Michael Griffin was interviewed today on NPR, and the conversation turned to global climate change. He said he thought it "arrogant" to propose that certain people at a certain place or time could decide what sort of climate the planet should have. To listen to the full interview, or read a bit of it, click here.

Some might suggest the arrogance lies with those - all of us - whose daily activities contribute significantly to changes already underway. Implicit in those activities is an assertion of our right as humans to change the planet's climate for all other living things.  Now that's arrogant.

Meanwhile, President Bush seems to be out in front of his NASA administrator, proposing to convene a meeting of the world's biggest greenhouse gas emittors in an effort to do just that - set goals for emissions in order to head off just the sort of climate change Griffin seems willing to accept.

That has drawn a cool response from Eileen Claussen, President of Pew Center on Global Climate Change:

"Six years after rejecting the Kyoto Protocol, President Bush has finally offered an alternative proposal, but it falls well short of what's needed. Agreement among the major emitting countries on a long-term global goal would be helpful. But far more critical is getting binding commitments on near- and mid-term action to reduce emissions.

"From all appearances, what the president is proposing is a strictly voluntary approach that won't deliver real results. We've tried the voluntary approach, both in the United States and internationally, and it doesn't work. The bottom line is we need binding commitments from all the major economies. The president isn't offering commitments and isn't asking for commitments, and without them we won't get the job done."

The unanswered question may be whether human institutions have the capacity to derail or even slow the changes we've helped to accelerate.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The climate data report for April 2007 is in from the National Climatic Data Center, and once again it is full of near-superlatives. For example, last month saw:

* The third-warmest global combined land and sea-surface temperatures on record for April.

* Ocean surface temperatures tied for 7th warmest of the last 128 years.

* The second-rainiest day on record in New York City

* The largest wildfire on record in Georgia.

* The 4th warmest April on record for Alaska.

* Billions of dollars in crop losses due to record cold from Texas to Illinois and Florida.

* Continuation of the driest "water year" (July to June) on record for Los Angeles.

* The warmest January-to-April period on record globally.

Finally, the report notes that global surface temperatures continue to rise at a rate of a third of a degree each decade, an accelerated rate that began in the mid-1970s. Want more? Click here.

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Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:28 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
                    

NASA scientists have published a new report on the projected impact of greenhouse gas warming on the Eastern United States over the next eight decades. By the 2080s, they say, average summertime high temperatures may be 10 degrees higher than they are now. That means the typical daytime high in July would be in the mid-90s in Central Maryland, instead of the mid-80s. Highs would rise to between 100 and 110 degrees on days when rain is scarce. 

Here's a story on the report, which is based on computer climate and weather forecasting models. The predictions also assume nothing is done in the meantime to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Here are the average temperatures for BWI in July for the 30-year period from 1970 to 2000.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the northern winter just ending was the warmest since record-keeping began in 1880, though it was only average for the United States. Read all about it here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

January 2007 clocked out two weeks ago as the warmest January on record around the globe, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. For the United States, it was just average. Read more about it here.  For Maryland, January averaged 38.7 degrees. That was 6.4 degrees above the long-term average for a January at BWI.

February, on the other hand, is running very cold. We've averaged just 25.6 degrees through Wednesday at BWI. That's 8.3 degrees below the long-term average, and tied with 1979 for the second-coldest February on record for Baltimore, going back to 1871. The coldest February on the books was in 1934, when the city averaged just 24.3 degrees.

It's costing us money. We're running 28 percent ahead of normal on heating degree-days so far this month. That means we've called on 28 percent more heating energy than the long-term average. Still, for the heating season so far, we remain ahead of the game by about 10 percent, thanks to a mild December and January.

We still have half the month to run, of course, and we're headed for the mid-40s next week - a shade above the norms. By the 28th, this month may well have faded back into temperature obscurity.

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Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:08 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Environment Maryland, which describes itself as a non-profit, non-partisan environmental advocacy organization, has produced a report on rising temperatures in the U.S. and Maryland, which it attributes to global warming.

The report, released today and citing data from the National Climatic Data Center, notes that the first seven months of this year were the warmest January-to-July period on record for the continental United States. In Maryland, the same period was 2.8 degrees above the average for that period during the 20th century. Since 2000, the report said, Baltimore has averaged 0.9 degrees warmer than the average for 1971 to 2000.

The group is calling on Maryland's representatives in Congress to support passage of the Safe Climate Act (H.R. 5642) "to harness clean energy solutions and reduce U.S. global warming emissions by 15 percent by 2020 and by 80 percent by 2050."

For the report's executive summary, and a link to the full report, click here. Read it, then leave a comment here.

There's almost no credible scientific debate anymore about the reality of global warming. It's happening. You can explore the temperature trends for Maryland, the region and the nation for yourself, using this tool from the NCDC.

The remaining questions are about how big a role human activity is playing, and whether its potential consequences warrant individual, national and global action to reduce the emission of "greenhouse" gases, and whether such action would make a significant difference in our future in any case. Your thoughts?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Scientists say the ice cap on the Arctic Ocean is shrinking. Each summer it melts back some. But long-term observations show that the maximum extent of the summer ice - its total area - is getting smaller over time, and this summer reached a new record. Here is a graphic representation of what's been happening in recent years.

The experts blame human-induced global warming for at least some portion of this phenomenon. And there is concern about its impact on habitat for polar bears, seals and many smaller creatures that depend on the ice and cold waters. The phenomenon appears to feed on itself. Ice reflects solar energy back into space. The more dark, open water becomes exposed to the summer sun, the more the Arctic Ocean heats up, slowing the formation of more ice in winter, speeding its spring melt, and opening still more ocean to the sun.

This could all have a profound impact on climate and weather, not to mention commerce if shippers one day find an ice-free summertime shortcut, through the arctic, between the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Explorers looked for one for centuries. They may finally get it.

The Sun carries a New York Times wire story on the latest discoveries on page A3 today.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:35 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
                    

Sticky, humid, overcast skies to move out by Monday evening. Tuesday's forcast is for partly cloudy skies in the morning, changing to mostly cloudy by early afternoon. High temperatures will be in the mid 80's with south winds at 5 mph. Chance of rain is 40%. Tuesday night will be mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, low's in the upper 60's and a 30% chance of rain. From the National Weather Service for the Baltimore area.

Posted by at 2:50 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)