The data are in, and no matter how wet and cool you remember October 2009, while it did end very wet, the temperatures averaged out to an almost precisely normal 55.3 degrees for Baltimore.

Rainfall for the month totaled 6.24 inches. That's a surplus of more than 3 inches, and the wettest October since 2005, when Tropical Storm Tammy's remnants drove the total to 9.23 inches.

And if you still feel like it was a cold October in Baltimore, it's probably the first half of the month that's stuck in your weather memory. Fourteen of the first 20 days of the month averaged cooler than the norm. 

The month's low was 34 degrees, on the 20th. The high was 83, on the 9th.

The coldest spell was from Oct. 14 through the 20th, a seemingly endless string of chilly, rainy days with temperatures averaging close to 10 degrees below the seasonal norms. Daytime highs stalled in the 40s to 50 degrees for four days straight. More than 3 inches of rain fell at BWI-Marshall in those same four days.

But we also enjoyed 12 October days of 70-plus temperatures, including one day in the 80s. Seventeen days were rated clear or partly cloudy.

And now November...

Average high temperatures for Baltimore in November slide from 61 degrees on the 1st to 51 degrees on the 30th. The average lows dip from 38 degrees to 31 degrees. The records run from 86 degrees (on the 1st in 1950), to 12 degrees (on the 30th in 1929).

Snow becomes a serious possibility in November for the first time. Many Baltimoreans will remember the Veteran's Day storm on Nov. 11, 1987, which left an official 6 inches at BWI, but caused much more disruption than the number would suggest.

The deepest November snowfall on record for the city is 8.4 inches, which fell on Nov. 30, 1967. Measurable snow has fallen here on all but eight dates in November.

The oldest weather record still standing for Baltimore in November seems to be the 1.79 inches of rain that fell on Nov. 23, 1879, still the record for that date. Also notable is the cold stretch from Nov. 19-24, 1880, when the maximum daily temperatures stalled near 30 degrees. Four of those high readings are still record low maximums for the dates.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

This just in: Baltimore's reservoir system is full to the brim!

Actually, all three reservoirs - Prettyboy, Liberty and Loch Raven - runneth over in the wake of surplus rainfall in the region for five of the last seven months. Here's the straight dope, right from the Department of Public Works:

Liberty: Crest elevation: 420 feet above mean sea level. Current elevation: 420.31 feet. Capacity - 36.8 billion gallons. Available: 36.8 billion gallons

Prettyboy: Crest elevation: 520 feet. Current elevation: 520.34 feet. Capacity - 17.85 billion gallons. Available: 17.85 billion gallons.

Loch Raven: Crest elevation: 240 feet. Current elevation: 240.94 feet. Capacity: 21.2 billion gallons. Available: 21.2 billion gallons.

Total system: Capacity: 75.85 billion gallons. Available: 75.85 billion gallons.

The airport has recorded 6.21 inches of rain so far in October, almost double the long-term average of 3.16 inches. It's tied for the 13th-wettest October since record-keeping began in 1871. And it's the fifth-wettest October for Baltimore since the station of record moved to Friendship Airport (now BWI-Marshall) in 1950.

And there's a good chance, with more rain Saturday, that October 2009 could leap even higher on the chart. Another inch would make it the fifth-wettest October here since 1871. Here are the rankings for Octobers since 1950:

2005: 9.23 inches

1976: 8.09 inches

1971:  6.88 inches

1995:  6.24 inches

2009: 6.21 inches

(SUN PHOTO/Linda Coan/Loch Raven Reservoir, full, August 1999).

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:05 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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Sure, it's been raining like crazy. The airport has recorded nearly two inches since this latest rainy spell began Tuesday. Half of that has fallen since midnight. We had about the same out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville - 1.92 inches since this began, and 0.73 inch since midnight. Western Run, above, is running high and fast.

Here are some more 24-hour totals from around the region from the NWS. Here are more reports from CoCoRaHS. A number of locations on the Eastern Shore and in Anne Arundel County reported more than 2 inches.

Greensboro (Caroline Co.):  2.74 inches

Vienna (Dorchester): 2.44 inches

Ocean Pines (Worcester): 2.34 inches

Selby-0n-the-Bay (Arundel): 2.26 inches

Towson (Baltimore): 1.88 inches

At the airport, the rain has taken us to roughly 6.30 inches for the month, by my calculations. And that brings the year's total to about 43 inches - two inches more than the annual average for Baltimore, and more than in 10 of the last 20 years. And it's not yet November.

But just imagine if this were January, or February. The rule-of-thumb for converting rainfall into snow depth is 10 inches of snow for every inch of rain. Now, that's an average of some kind. Light, fluffy snow will be deeper than wet, heavy snow.  But a 1.9-inch rainstorm might have been a nearly 20-inch snowstorm had these same conditions assembled themselves here in, say, the second week of February.

And who knows? Maybe they will. How's that for a Halloween scare? 

Anyway, the bulk of the rain has moved off to the northeast. The National Weather Service is calling for mostly cloudy skies for the next few days. We may see some sunshine peek through. But the next cold front is due through here Friday into Saturday, with more showers on the menu before the month ends.

(SUN PHOTO/Frank Roylance; NOAA graphic) 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:19 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Sure, it seems like this month has just been way too wet. And the wettest patch of the last couple of days is still ahead this (Tuesday) evening. We'll be hearing more rain on the roof tonight.

The radar map shows a big wad of wet weather surging into the Northeast. And the National Weather Service's Sterling forecast office says we're looking at another half- to three-quarters-of-an-inch of steady rain tonight - plus a quarter to a half inch more on Wednesday.

That could push the month's total past 5 inches before all this is over. 

But even if that comes to pass, we're still far short of the record for the month - the 9.23 inches that fell here in 2005. Now that was a REALLY wet October. We recorded 6.65 inches on Oct. 7-8 alone that month as the remnants of Tropical Storm Tammy washed through. Rain totals set new daily records on both those dates.

For the rain-weary, the good news is that the rain should begin to let up after noon Wednesday. But skies may not fully clear before another storm system arrives on Saturday - with more October showers.

Sorry.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:02 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: By the numbers
        

All those long, cold, soggy days of drizzle, rain, wet leaves and the smell of long-idled furnaces switching on are behind us, at last. Forecasters out at Sterling are making amends this week with sunny skies forecast right through Thursday, and highs topping 70 degrees by Wednesday.

Now that's the sort of October we've come to expect in Maryland.

Still, the last five days (Oct. 14-18) are worth a glance backward as we sort out the records and near-records. I'll try to get it right this time.

COLD: Temperatures during this five-day period averaged 10.6 degrees below the long-term averages for these dates in Baltimore.

The official highs at BWI were:

Weds. Oct. 14:  50 degrees. Eighteen degrees below the average high for the date. That also matched the record-low maximum for the date, set in 1874.

Thurs. Oct. 15:  48 degrees. Nineteen degrees below average. A new record-low maximum for the date, breaking the previous record of 50 degrees for the date, set in 1876.

Friday, Oct. 16:  43 degrees. Twenty-four degrees below average. A new record-low maximum for the date, breaking the previous record of 52 degrees, set in 1940.

Saturday, Oct. 17: 45 degrees. Twenty-one degrees below average. A new record-low maximum for the date, breaking the previous record of 53 degrees, last matched in 1991.

Sunday, Oct. 18:  52 degrees. Fourteen degrees below average. This one fell short of the record-low maximum, set in 1972, by just 1 degree.

Bottom Line: Four consecutive days of matched or broken record-low maximums, the second-longest such streak since record-keeping began in 1871. Three consecutive October days with high temperatures falling short of 50 degrees. That matched the previous record, set in 1893 and matched in 1925 and 2002. But this was the earliest of the four. The rest all began on Oct. 29.

Now the precipitation:

The airport recorded 3.19 inches of rain from Wednesday through Sunday. That brought the month's total to date to 3.31 inches. Some locations in Maryland saw more. The heaviest rains fell on Saturday, with nearly 1.5 inches at the airport.

The season's first snow was reported in the Baltimore and Washington suburbs Saturday into Sunday, with a half-inch in Shrewsbury, Pa., and enough snow in the still-leafy trees to cause considerable tree damage in some locations as near to downtown as Sparks, in northern Baltimore County. We had this report today from "Patty," in Sparks:

"3 am, Sparks, Maryland, dog starts barking and we look around the house can't find what he is barking at.

"We get back into bed and I ask if there is hunting at night because I hear gunshots, not unusual in the area. I found out hunting is not allowed at night, I get up look out the window it is SNOWING! Cars are covered, ground covered, tree covered and bushes are covered. We could hear limbs snapping off the trees, and trees falling down. Incredible!"

The photo of snow and tree damage above was taken around 10:30 a.m. Sunday on Hunting Tweed Drive, in Owings Mills, by Gregory Hill. Used with permission. 

No snow was reported at the airport, the official station for Baltimore. In any case it wouldn't have set a record. The earliest snow for Baltimore fell on Oct. 9, 1903 (a trace) and Oct. 10, 1979 (0.3 inch).

So, now what?

Forecaster are calling for daytime highs to rise through the 50s today (Monday) and the 60s tomorrow, reaching the low- to mid-70s on Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds into the region and parks here for most of the week. Then the next cold front and showers arrive. (Those may include moisture from Hurricane Rick, now bearing down on Baja California.)

Until then, bright sunshine and south and westerly winds will warm us up quite nicely during the day. Skies will be favorable at night for most of the week for watching the Orionid meteor shower, between midnight and dawn.

Nighttime - especially tonight - is another story. Temperatures tonight are expected to "plummet," forecasters said, as clear skies allow any daytime heating to radiate back into space. "It is certain that frost/freeze products will need to be issued," they said in this morning's forecast discussion.  The forecast low for the airport Tuesday morning is 40 degrees, but the usually colder suburbs and rural areas will go much lower.

We had a low of 31 out on the WeatherDeck this morning, and we had to do some serious windshield scraping before we could head off for work. The airport low was 35 degrees, just 5 degrees warmer than the record low for the day, set in 1976.

(Top: SUN PHOTO/Amy Davis, 2005; Bottom: NOAA photo)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:13 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: By the numbers
        

After barely touching 50 degrees yesterday, the thermometer out at Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport could be headed for a strange new record as we slosh through the weekend.

Steve Zubrick, the science and operations officer out at the NWS Sterling forecast office, says it looks like the mercury at BWI won't escape the 40s again until Monday, when the sun finally comes out. The forecast highs currently are 48, 44, 45 and 46 degrees respectively, Thursday through Sunday.

If that happens, it will be the first time since official record-keeping began in Baltimore in 1871 that we've gone four straight days in October without hitting 50 degrees.

"Three times there have been three days in a row of less than 50 degrees F," Zubrick said, "all at the end of the month, starting on Oct. 29." Those events occurred in 1893, 1925 and 2002. "But never four in a row."

And here we are, barely halfway through October, and we're already threatening four straight days under 50 degrees.

Zubrick also doubts that I will be able to keep my hands off the thermostat until Nov. 1, was my plan. He's already switched his furnace on at least once this month. But I have held out. So far. My wife doesn't seem to be as committed to this goal as I am. We'll see how we do this weekend. 

Anyway, we can blame a series of storm systems, some coming out of the Ohio Valley, and others developing along the coast, that are pumping cool, wet Atlantic air off the ocean. It seems like mostly drizzle for now, but forecasters at Sterling say we could see as much as a half-inch this afternoon, and another half inch tonight.

These storms will also be dragging cold air in with snow showers or freezing rain in the mountains. Snow is forecast tonight for parts of northern and western Pennsylvania, and as far south as Garrett County, Md.

The folks at Sterling expect that will make each night through early Sunday colder than the last, sinking into the 30s and increasing the chances for a wintry mix spreading beyond the higher elevations.

For late Saturday and early Sunday, they say, "the rain/snow mix could even creep into the far northwest Baltimore/Washington suburbs."  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:08 AM | Permalink | Comments (9)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Wednesday's winds, which brought down plenty of autumn leaves, not to mention branches, trees and power lines, reached 50 mph in several locations around the region. An Eastern Shore man died when his small sailboat capsized in high winds. There were gale warnings and small craft warnings on the bay Wednesday.

Here is a rundown on top wind gusts, from National Weather Services observers:

BWI:  50 mph

Urbana HS, Ijamsville: 50 mph

Charles Flowers HS, Upper Marlboro:  50 mph

US Naval Academy, Annapolis:  46 mph

Winters Mill HS, Westminster:  47 mph

Patuxent Valley MS, Savage:  47 mph

Antietam TV, Hagerstown:  47 mph

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Okay, I know there will be lots of "coldest mornings so far" as we get closer to winter, and into the coldest days of January and February. But it's these first few days of chilly readings, after a summer of balmy weather, that we really notice.

The mercury sank to 44 degrees before dawn Thursday out at BWI-Marshall Airport. That was well short of the record for an Oct. 1 in Baltimore. That would be the 36-degree low reached on this date in 1947. But it was the coldest morning in the suburbs since May 22, when it also was 44 degrees.

The low here at Calvert and Centre streets was 52 degrees. We bottomed out at 43 degrees on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. There was a 38-degree reading out in south-central Pennsylvania, near Shippensburg, and a few more like that in northern Virginia and eastern panhandle of West Virginia.

But mostly the lows across the region were in the 40s. Here's a map showing many of the lows.

If your weekend starts today, congratulations. You have the nicest day of the bunch to play with. We're enjoying clear, dry, high pressure, with today's high sticking in the mid-60s. But as this high moves off to our east, and we come into the return flow, warmer, wetter air will begin to rise up from the south. That will get us into the 70s, with more clouds tomorrow.

But rain chances climb late Friday, with a 70 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Your autumn Saturday at the beach looks like a washout.

But things will clear off again by Sunday after the next cold front moves through. Sunday looks fine, with a high in nthe low 70s and sunshine. We'll stay good until rain chances rise again on Tuesday.

Rain would be an especially good thing for far Western Maryland. The latest Drought Monitor map, released this morning, shows all of Garrett and Allegany counties, and the westernmost part of Washington county, are now in moderate drought, making up about 11 percent of the state. The rest of Washington and the western part of Frederick county are rated as abnormally dry, adding up to nearly 19 percent of the state experiencing unusually dry conditions.

The dry weather has been building out there since mid-August, part of a wider expanse of dry territory that includes southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. 

(SUN PHOTO/Perry Thorsvik, 1994; Hey, she looked cool and sunny... although the ice pick is kinda scary.)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Weather watchers in Maryland noticed something odd on Monday. Their barometers were skidding to unusually low numbers, while the skies outside seemed strangely clear. Normally, when the barometer is very low, we're in the middle of a pretty impressive storm.

Fred Weiss noticed and shot me an email message from Baltimore: "What is causing this low pressure?" he asked.

I checked, and he was right. The official National Weather Service barometer out at BWI-Marshall Airport sank to 29.44 inches. Out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville, the console said 29.37 inches. And here at The Baltimore Sun, Calvert and Centre streets, the weather station read 29.45 inches.

Steve Zubrick, science and operations officer for the NWS at Sterling says the last time BWI saw a reading that low was back on April 7, 2009.

Anyone else make a note of their low reading for Monday?

For comparison, I checked the low barometer reading back on Sept. 19, 2003, when Tropical Storm Isabel blew through the region. The low reading at BWI that morning was 29.58 inches.  So, I checked back ever farther, to Hurricane Hazel, on Oct. 15, 1954. The low barometer that day was 28.93 inches.

So Monday's low reading was a bit lower than during Isabel, but not nearly as low as during Hazel's passage. 

So what was going on here Monday? And more specifically, why was the sun shining?

Our low barometer was caused by an intense low-pressure system that was - and still is - drifting across the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada. A trough of low pressure extends south and west from that storm center, which is what is keeping our barometric readings so low even today - Tuesday. The Sun's barometer has only rebounded to 29.69 inches at 11 a.m.

Here's a nifty satellite loop of the spinning low.

The low is rotatring counterclockwise. And on Monday morning, it was setting off torrential rains along the Great Lakes, where I was visiting my in-laws in Erie, Pa. It also touched off a band of intense showers along the I-95 corridor in the late afternoon at one point (where it whacked us again as we drove back into Baltimore.) We recorded a quick tenth of an inch here at The Sun.

The big low was also dragging a wedge of dry air in from the southwest, which gave Baltimore the sunny skies we saw for a time Monday. Meteorologists call that a "dry slot," and it's not unusual with these strong lows. You can see it in the satellite image above, now just off the East Coast.

Some clouds have moved in behind it as cooler, drier air is pulled down from the northwest around the backside of the low. 

The forecast calls for windy conditions today as the atmosphere continues to flow around the low to our north and east. But we should remain sunny, with a high near 70 degrees.

As cooler air moves in with high pressure builds into the region behind the low, we'll start hanging up in the mid- to upper-60s for the next few days.  We'll stay sunny until the next cold front approaches late Friday into Saturday. 

Continue reading "Big low over E. Canada sinks barometers here " »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:48 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Heavy and persistent rains have swamped many sections of the Deep South in recent weeks.  It has erased longstanding drought in many spots, but replaced it with terrible flooding that has caused numerous deaths - at least seven in Georgia alone - and much property damage.

NASA's Earth Observatory has computed cumulative rain totals based on satellite observations and generated a map of the region showing where the heaviest rain was concentrated.

The lightest amounts are in pale green, the heaviest (more than 300 mm, or about 12 inches) in dark blue. Here's more.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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The National Weather Service thermometer at Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport dropped to an official 47 degrees this morning. You can credit clear skies amid dry Canadian high pressure, and radiational cooling. All the warmth we built up under Saturday's perfect blue skies just radiated back out into space overnight.

Lows in the 40s felt pretty darn cold if you went to bed with the windows open last night. But it was still 5 degrees short of the record. The coldest morning for Baltimore on a Sept. 20 is 42 degrees, last reached on this date in 1959.

The last time we were this cold at the airport was back on June 1, when the mercury touched 46 degrees.

We reached 44 degrees out here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville (left). And there were some even colder readings across the region - as low as 41 degrees just over the Pennsylvania line. Sunshine today will bring us back into the 70s. Another fine late-summer afternoon; of course, it can't last.

The high pressure system is moving off the coast today, and we will come into the return flow of the clockwise circulation around the center, bringing us increasingly warm and moist air.

That will mean more clouds, and eventually rising chances for rain and showers as the week rolls along. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: By the numbers
        

 Chilly? Looks like this afternoon's official high temperature at BWI-Marshall will be 62 degrees. If so, that will be just one degree higher than the all-time "low maximum" for a Sept. 11 in Baltimore - 61 degrees, which has stood since this date in 1883.

All that and a gusher of rain, too - an inch and a half at BWI, and 1.4 inches here at The Sun.  

The sunshine returns on Sunday, of all days.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:35 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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With our reservoirs full, and a few extra bucks in our pockets thanks to cool weather in June and July, we can kiss the summer of 2009 goodbye with a smile on our faces today.

The meteorological summer ended at midnight last night, and the reality was easy to accept with that cold breeze wafting in through open windows.  Temperatures dropped to 50 degrees out on the WeatherDeck, and that extra blanket was welcome.

(Some poor toad crawled into our barbecue grille after dinner Sunday night, presumably seeking warmth from the cooling ceramic brickettes. He was still there last night when I fired it up for the salmon. It was a crispy garnish I tossed onto the lawn for whatever critters might have a taste for such things. But, I digress...)

It was 60 this morning here at Calvert and Centre streets. Out at BWI-Marshall, the official low for Baltimore was 57 degrees, just four degrees above the record low for a Sept. 1 in Baltimore, set in 1963. Here are some other low readings this morning from around the region. Plenty of 40s and at least one reading in the 30s on the map.

So how does the summer stack up?

June and July were cooler than the long-term averages for Baltimore; July especially, with an average temperature nearly 2 degrees below the norms. August warmed up, averaging 76.6 degrees, or 2.1 degrees above normal.

You can see that trend in the count of 90-degree-plus days. June had none. It was only the 6th time Baltimore's official instruments have failed to reach 90 degrees in June. It was also only the 4th time we've failed to reach 90 in May and June of the same year, and the first since 1979. The average is 7.2 days in the 90s in those two months.

July saw its first 90-degree day on the 12th, the latest date for that event since 1979. Cool nights made the news, too. The low of 58 degrees on July 14 tied the record reached in 2001 and 1895. On the 19th, the low of 57 degrees broke the 59-degree record low for the date, set in 1962.

There were four days in the 90s in July, and 6 in August as the weather finally began to heat up. That's a total of 10 for the June-August period, less than half the normal count of 25 days of 90 or more.

Steve Zubrick, science and operations officer at the NWS Sterling forecast office, says 10 days of 90-degree weather for the three-month meteorological summer ties for the eighth fewst such days since record-keeping began in 1871. All of those summers with fewer 90-plus days were a long time ago.

Summers with just 10 days of 90-plus weather occurred in four other years: 1883, 1884, 1904 and 1907.

Summers with fewer such days: 

Nine days: 1915

Eight days: 1886, 1889, 1917, 2004

Seven days:  1897, 2000.

The record for the number of 90-plus days in a Baltimore summer is 51 days, in 1988.

So we saved money on cooling, with cooling degree days ( a measure of demand for cooling energy) averaging almost 3.5 percent below the long-term average. Curiously, April had three days in the 90s, too, bringing the year's total to 13 so far.

We also recorded about 2.5 inches of surplus rain over the summer. June and August were wet, but July fell a half-inch short of the average. That all followed very wet weather in April and May, and all of it has left high water in all three of the city's reservoirs. The system is at 99.55 percent of capacity, according to the Baltimore Department of Public Works, which is extraordinary for the end of a summer that (so far) has not seen a tropical storm.

The rain totals for April through June totaled 19.74 inches, the second highest amount on record for those three months in Baltimore. The 120-year-old record is 21.69 inches, set in April-June 1889.

So, did this relatively cool, wet summer affect your outdoor activites? Is your garden out of control? Did the mosquitoes drive you crazy? Are we looking forward to cooler autumn weather? To snow? Let's hear it. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: By the numbers
        

The 11 a.m. update from the National Hurricane Center puts the chances that winds along the mid-Atlantic coast will top tropical storm force (39 mph or more) this weekend at 20 to 30 percent.

That's the message from the tropical Storm Winds Probability Map (above) posted this morning. The actual outcome will depend, of course, on where the steering currents take Danny. The consensus keeps the storm well offshore. But it's a sprawling system, with tropical storm winds extending as much as 200 miles from the center.

High winds, even offshore, will increase the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents at the beaches this weekend. Danny is also expected to bring plenty of rain to the eastern part of Maryland this weekend, while an approaching cold front does the same for Central Maryland.

Late Thursday morning, Danny's top sustained winds were clocked at around 60 mph. That's 14 mph short of hurricane strength. But some continued strengthening was forecast for the next few days as the storm's center moves over warmer waters in the Gulf Stream.

Danny's problem has been a poorly organized center and high-altitude winds that have thwarted rapid development.

The storm's center late this morning was about 550 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras. It was moving toward the northwest at 13 mph, but that movement was a bit erratic. Danny was expected to turn more toward the north later today, and increase its forward speed.

The storm's greatest threat may be along the New England coast and the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Here is the latest forecast advisory for Danny. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

While we're at it, the National Hurricane Center is already watching the next storm in the Atlantic basin. The tropical disturbance in the far eastern Atlantic is given less than a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The community of North Beach in Calvert County, and the city of Annapolis have topped everyplace else west of the bay in the amount of rainfall recorded over the weekend, according to data compiled by the National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling, Va.

The showers and thunderstorms were very localized, with some spots seeing more than 3 inches of rain, while others saw less than 2 inches. Officially, BWI-Marshall recorded just 1.7 inches for the weekend.

Here are some of the totals from around the region, for the 60 hours ending at 7 a.m. Monday:

North Beach (Calvert): 6.35 inches

Annapolis (Arundel): 5.25 inches

Huntingtown (Calvert): 4.75 inches

Dunkirk (Calvert): 4.32 inches

Churchton (Arundel): 4.25 inches

Camp Springs (Prince George's): 3.96 inches

Deale (Arundel): 3.75 inches

La Plata (Charles): 3.74 inches

Montgomery Village (Montgomery): 3.68 inches

Beverly Beach (Arundel): 3.46 inches

Friendly Hills (PG): 3.43 inches

West Friendship (Howard): 3.29 inches

Glenwood (Howard): 3.26 inches

Edgewater (Arundel): 3.25 inches

There were numerous reports of flash flooding and road closures in Anne Arundel and Calvert counties on Saturday as a result of the downpours.

Got pictures? If you have a good digital photo of the weekend rain or flooding, send it along and I'll post the best. Email frank.roylance@baltsun.com

Some slight rain chances will linger late Monday and Monday night. But the rest of the week looks dry and sunny, with the warmest temperatures coming at mid-week, with a Wednesday high near 90 degrees. After that, a cold front will push through, sending daytime highs back to the more seasonable low 80s. Rain chances will rise again for the weekend.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Yesterday's thunderstorms delivered an inch of rain at BWI-Marshall Airport, the most in one day since July 31. We recorded 1.3 inches here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville, and just over an inch at The Sun building at Calvert and Centre streets downtown.

The CoCoRaHS network reported an astonishing 9 inches of rain yesterday in Ridgely, over in Caroline County on the Eastern Shore. Here are some other totals reported by the group:

Denton, Caroline Co.:  3.31 inches

Sykesville, Howard Co.: 2.84 inches

Clarksburg, Montgomery Co.: 2.75 inches

Towson, Baltimore Co.:  1.8 inches

St. Michaels, Talbot Co.: 1.53 inches

Ellicott City, Howard Co.: 1.32 inches

Forecasters out at Sterling say there is more to come. With the ground saturated in places by Friday's rains, they have posted flash flood watches all across central and southern Maryland today and through the evening (green area on map). More showers and storms will cross the region ahead of an  approaching cold front with another 1 to 3 inches of rain possible.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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This week's official Drought Monitor map shows 48 percent of Maryland - from roughly the I-95 corridor south and east - is now experiencing "abnormally" dry conditions. It is the third week in a row that some portion of the state has been dry, following a wet spell that had produced normal moisture conditions statewide since April.

The impact of the current dry weather in Maryland is reported to be primarily agricultural.

The Drought Monitor map is based on a variety of measurements of rainfall, soil moisture, water levels and the health of vegetation.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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Temperatures at BWI-Marshall Airport Thursday reached 94 degrees, making it the hottest day of the year so far, and only the fifth day in the 90s in 2009. Hot as it was, it was far from a record. The hottest July 16th on record for Baltimore is 104 degrees, set in 1988.

It was 96 here at The Sun, and 91 degrees on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. Here are some more high readings from across the region.

We're not likely to see the likes of that again for a while. Forecasters are expecting plenty of clouds today, with a 60 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms - some of them severe - after 3 p.m. Portions of the state east of the mountains will face the highest threat from storms and high winds. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the entire region, in effect until 5 p.m. ARTSCAPE exhibitors take note!

The clouds and storms will also keep the temperatures in check, with a forecast high of 89 at BWI.

There are more showers and storms on tap for the region tonight as low pressure tracks along the cold front that has stalled across the region. The weekend looks better (or worse, if your grass is brown and your tomatoes are thirsty), with only a slight, lingering risk of rain on Saturday. Sunday looks pretty sunny, with highs through the weekend pleasant, in the mid-80s. Better for Artscape.

The new work week will bring a revived, but still small chance for some badly needed rain just about every day. Temperatures will hold slightly below normal, in the low- to mid-80s.

One other note: After a long period of quiet, the tropics have perked up a bit. The National Hurricane Center is watching a stormy area of the far eastern Atlantic Ocean (right) for possible signs of development. It's given only a small chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next few days, but it's really the first action we've seen in the Atlantic basin since the 2009 hurricane season began June 1.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: By the numbers
        

The thermometer out at BWI-Marshall Airport touched 58 degrees this morning. That tied the record low for a July 14 in Baltimore. The last time we sank to 58 degrees on this date was in 2001, but there were other, prior years when we touched the same mark.

The lowest reading on record for Baltimore in July is 50 degrees, set on July 1, 1988 and again on July 3, 2001.

It was even colder than 58 elsewhere across the region. It was 53 degrees this morning at Dulles International Airport in northern Virginia. Hagerstown reached 57 degrees. It was 53 degrees on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville.

Martinsburg, WV reported 49 degrees this morning. It was 47 degrees at York (Pa.) Airport. 

Here are more readings around the region. Looks like 42 degrees was the lowest, out near Garrett County. We're headed for the mid-80s this afternoon, with very low humidities. The relative humidity here at The Sun at noon stands at 35 percent. The high temperature will crowd 90 by Thursday.

Go figure.

(SUN PHOTO/David Hobby July 2005)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: By the numbers
        

That was one chill breeze coming in the bedroom window this morning. Reminds me of summer in New England. It was only 54 degrees at daybreak on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. And there were some colder readings than that across the region. York, Pa. reported a low of 50 at the airport.

It was 56 early this morning at BWI-Marshall Airport. That was within 2 degrees of the record low for a July 9 at BWI. The 54-degree reading there was set on this date a quarter-century ago - in 1984.

There was a low of 64 degrees at Washington Reagan. Dulles Airport, out in northern Virginia, reached 58 degrees. It was 58 in Hagerstown, too.

All this as we approach what is, on average at least, the hottest two weeks of the year.

Here are some other low readings from across the region. (Check the date on the map; the 7/9 data had not been loaded at the time of this writing.) 

The forecast continues to look just fine. The seasonable weather is expected to continue, with some heating-up, and a chance of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. But the first half of next week looks a lot like this week - mild temperatures and dry weather.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

So you'll be sitting around the lunch table at work today, and you'll raise your cup of diet soda and call for a toast: "Here's to the magic of numbers, and to this magic moment in time: 12:34:56 p.m. on 7/8/09."

Your friends and co-workers will be amazed at your mathematical acumen, and your acute awareness of your place in the space-time continuum.

Either that, or you will be greeted with blank stares, and people will begin to leave the table, claiming to have pressing work to attend to.

Just remember, you heard it here first.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

June is back in Baltimore, and with it comes the likelihood of some really hot weather. The sun reaches its highest arc in June, and record highs poke into the 100-plus range for the first time in the year.

Not that we haven't already seen some heat this year. With all this rain and cloudy weather, it's easy to forget that we had three straight days in the 90s in April. That 90-degree heat wave arrived before we had even seen our first days with highs in the 80s.

The average highs for June in Baltimore rise from 79 degrees on June 1 to 86 degrees by the end of the month. The average lows rise climb from 57 degrees to 64.

Record highs are all in the upper 90s and low 100s during June. The hottest June day on record for the city was 105 degrees on June 29, 1934. Imagine THAT without air-conditioning! The coolest June day never got above 54 degrees. That was on June 1, 1907. The coldest reading in June since record-keeping began in 1871 was 40 degrees, on June 11, 1972. Our low of 46 this morning at the airport was plenty cool, but we can pretty much forget readings in the 30s until fall.

The wettest June day on record was June 28, 1885, when 4.47 inches fell on the city. But the wettest June on record remains June 1972, the month the remnants of Hurricane Agnes blew through town. That June saw 9.95 inches fall at BWI. The driest June was in 1954, with only 0.15 inch at the airport.

The oldest June record still standing was a sweltering June 20, in 1873, when the mercury never fell below 78 degrees.

The earliest sunrise of the year will occur on Sunday, June 14, with Sol rising over Baltimore at 5:39 a.m. EDT.

The Summer Solstice this year occurs a week later, at 1:45 a.m. EDT on Sunday, June 21. The sun will rise here on that day at 5:40 a.m. EDT, setting at 8:37 p.m., providing 14 hours and 57 minutes of sunshine.

May ended last night as the second-wettest on record for Baltimore. The precipitation totaled 8.42 inches. Here's how it stacked up against the wettest Mays:

May 1989:  8.71 inches

May 2009:  8.42 inches

May 2008:  7.77 inches

May 1894:  7.26 inches

May 1960:  7.10 inches

May 1886:  7.07 inches

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Lots of records broken on Tuesday as Gulf and Atlantic moisture continue to flow into the region and run up against the stalled cold front draped across the Northeast.

BWI recorded 2.28 inches yesterday, washing away the previous record for a May 26 - 1.72 inches, set way back in 2001.

There was a new record set, too, at Reagan National Airport. They received 1.65 inches, beating the old record of 1.49 inches set there in 2003. And out at Dulles International, they more than doubled the old record of 1.59 inches, set in 2002. The total at Dulles yesterday was 3.59 inches.

We have now erased the rainfall deficit accumulated since the first of the year at BWI. The year-to-date total is 17.95 inches, beating the long-term average of 16.68 inches. But we still trail last year's total of 19.78 inches through May 26.

There are no sunny days in the forecast until Saturday. But while we will likely see drizzle and showers and perhaps some thunderstorms for the rest of the work week, they are not likely to produce to sort of rain some of us saw yesterday.

The rain was spotty. Here are some of the heaviest totals from across the region:

Continue reading "The wettest May 26" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:17 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The morning low out at BWI this morning reached 38 degrees, setting a new record for a May 19 in Baltimore. The previous record had stood for only six years, having been set on this date in 2003.

The National Weather Service has not posted it yet (at this writing). But I've called it to their attention, so it may pop up in their data shortly.

The low out on the WeatherDeck this morning was a bracing 36 degrees. With the heat off for the season, the blanket and spread were not quite enough for us this morning as the dawn broke. Getting up seemed the better choice. 

Here at Calvert & Centre streets, the low was 46 degrees. There were no new records at either Dulles International (low was 38 degrees, record 36), or Reagan National (low was 45 degrees, record 43). 

The high-pressure system that moved into the region late yesterday (left) had shoved all the clouds away by this morning (see satellite photo above) and dried out the atmosphere. As winds died down around sunset, that set up the perfect conditions for radiational cooling. So much of the meagre warmth we accumulated yesterday radiated back into space overnight, driving temperatures down.

The relative humidity readings today are headed rapidly downward - from 78 percent around sunrise to 44 percent at this writing (and still falling). The barometer, meanwhile, has been headed in the opposite direction, holding steady now at around 30.50 inches.

The forecast shows we can expect temperatures to warm to around 80 degrees by tomorrow, and hang around that mark right into the weekend. The sunny skies will linger, too, at least until Sunday, when chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to rise again.

Continue reading "Morning cold breaks record" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
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We had a pretty hard rain out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville last night. The rain gauge clocked about seven tenths of an inch. There was less here at Calvert & Centre streets - about 0.35 inch on the meter. And the airport reported only seven hundredths.

As the rain fell, I found myself listening to the water gurgling down the gutters and downspouts. Am I the only one who finds the sound somehow soothing? I'm not sure whether it's some atavistic reassurance that there is fresh, running water nearby - a babbling brook - or that our shelter is keeping us all dry. Or maybe it's just comforting to know that all the dough we spent on gutter caps this spring is paying off, and keeping the gutters and downspouts clear of leaves and oak flowers and other crud.

Anyway, it was very pleasant. It was also good to hear the 12-year-old sump pump working as it should. Is there anything worse than water in the basement? Thinking of putting in a new one, just in case. What's the life expectancy on a sump pump? 

Here's a listing of rain total reports from around the state. Looks like Prince George's County had the big numbers, with Oxon Hill reporting 1.7 inches.

At the halfway point, May has yielded more than 4 inches of rain at Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport. We're at 3.23 inches here at The Sun. And there is more to come.

The National Weather Service forecasters out at Sterling are predicting "slight" chances for thunderstorms this afternoon, rising to "likely" on Saturday afternoon, with as much as a half-inch possible. There are more showers in the cards for Sunday morning before the atmosphere finally begins to clear out after the stalled frontal system that's causing all this instability moves off.

Next week still looks sunny and pleasant, with highs rising from the 60s to the upper 70s by Wednesday and Thursday.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Steve Zubrick, the science and operations officer for the National Weather Service's Sterling Forecast Office has been snooping around in Baltimore's weather records again. He's found that the very wet start to May we just survived was one for the record books:

"Some facts about the recent wet spell we all loved...

"BWI had measurable precip. (at least 0.01") each consecutive day for May
1st - 7th (2009).

"For what it's worth (and we don't keep records on this), this was only
the second time since record-keeping began that Baltimore started the
first full week of May with 7 consecutive days of measurable rainfall.
The other time was May 1998...and in that year (1998)...the first 12
days of May 1998 had measurable rain.

"And...the 3.88" of rain measured during the 1st week of May this year
(2009) was the most rainfall ever measured in Baltimore during the 1st
full week (7 days) of May. Runner-up was 3.66" that fell the first week
of May 1989 (although not in 7 consecutive days)."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Once again the thermometer surged to 91 degrees at BWI, but once again it lacked the oomph to break past that mark and tie the record for the date - 92 degrees on April 27, 1994.

The same thing happened yesterday. We made it to 91 at BWI, but fell short of the record for that date - again 92, set on April 26, 1990.

But we did notch up a third April day in a row in the 90s today. It's only the fourth time since records began in 1871 that's happened, according to Steve Zubrick, science officer at the National Weather Service forecast office at Sterling. The previous occasions were in 1976 and 1929, and in 1960, when we managed to string together FOUR straight days in the 90s - April 23-26, 1960.

Tuesday's forecast high is 88 degrees. The record for the date is 90, set in 1957. 

It was 93 at the Inner Harbor today, by the way. And we reached 96 degrees here at The Sun.

Dunno. I may be forced to switch on the AC tonight to cool down the house. Anybody else out there still keeping hands off the thermostat? Hot as it's been, the nights have been cool. By morning under an open window it's been quite chilly.

At least it's dry. The relative humidity here at Calvert & Centre is only 27 percent.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:52 PM | Permalink | Comments (13)
Categories: By the numbers
        

BWI has received just 3.79 inches of precipitation so far this year, and barely an inch since Jan. 29. We've had only 1.87 inches in 2009 on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville.

National Weather Service forecaster Andy Woodcock, out at Sterling, had these observations this morning about the dry weather:

"AS OPPOSED TO THE NEAR RECORD FLOODING ONGOING IN THE UPPER MIDWEST...IT IS
CERTAINLY WORTH NOTING HOW DRY THIS YEAR HAS BEEN SO FAR. \

"AT BWI AND IAD (DULLES) THIS HAS STARTED AS THE DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD...AND BALTIMORE`S RECORDS GO BACK 139 YRS. DCA (REAGAN NATIONAL) IS 4TH DRIEST ON RECORD.

"SOMETIMES I BRING THE ADAGE "WHEN IN DROUGHT LEAVE IT OUT" INTO THE DISCUSSION WHEN REFERRING TO PRECIPITATION FORECASTING. THE FLIP OF THAT IS "IT TAKES A FLOOD TO
BREAK A DROUGHT." THAT ONE HASN`T ALWAYS WORKED..AND PREFERABLY WON`T THIS YR...BUT TIME WILL TELL. IN MEANTIME FIRE THREAT IS A GREATER CONCERN.

"WHAT WE COULD USE IS A COASTAL LOW THAT SITS OFF OF ORF (NORFOLK) FOR A FEW
DAYS...BUT THAT ISN`T COMING IN THE NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST ON TUES AND 1ST PART OF WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPUTATION W/ THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT WOULD PROBABLY BE ON WEDS NIGHT...BUT SO FAR THIS YEAR FRONTS TRACKING ACROSS THE COUNTRY HAVE HAD THE TENDENCY TO DRY UP AS THESE REACH
THE APPALACHIANS...AND MY SUSPICION IS THIS MAY HAPPEN AGAIN.

"PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND...BUT W/ LOW TAKING
MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY INTO THE GREAT LAKES I REMAIN SUSPICOUS."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: By the numbers
        

The overnight low at BWI-Marshall this morning was a balmy (for March) 60 degrees, just after midnight. Temperatures have been rising ever since, and will take a long time falling tonight. That puts another record at risk.

This time it's the record high minimum for March 8 - the warmest low temperature for any March 8 on the books since record-keeping began here in 1871. Here's how science officer Steve Zubrick, out at the Sterling forecast office, put it to me in an email this morning:

"FYI...if our forecast for BWI holds...looks like we have a shot at breaking the record Hi-min for today...March 8.

"The current record is 52F (2000). The overnight low at BWI was 60F...and our hourly temperature forecast grids only drop to 58 by midnight tonight (Sun night).

UPDATE: The low temperature for March 8 at BWI was 54 degrees, setting a new record high minimum for the date.

"Tomorrow's record Hi-min of 56F set in 1921 appears safe...again if our forecast is good...temps should be falling sharply tomorrow (Mon) evening and into the overnight as the stationary front to the north sags south of the Balt. metro area. late Mon.

"Steve Z
SOO-NWS WFO Sterling"

Cool! Or is it "Warm!" ?

Continue reading "Another record threatened in Baltimore" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: By the numbers
        

The impact of the Chesapeake Bay on local weather has never been more apparent than it is this afternoon. As temperatures rise into the 60s and 70s across the region, the mercury is stuck at 45 degrees in Annapolis, as of the 3 p.m. reading.

The Annapolis reading comes from the U.S. Naval Academy, which is right on the Severn River where it enters the bay. Water temperature at the Thomas Point Light is 38 degrees.

Glenn L. Martin Airport, on Middle River, is reporting a chilly 54 degrees, even as BWI chimes in at 64 degrees. The Sun's station at Calvert and Centre streets read 65 at 3 p.m..

Here is a list of 3 p.m. readings from across the region:

Washington National: 64 degrees

Dulles International:  67 degrees

BWI:  64 degrees

Charolottesville, Va.:  70 degrees

Fredericksburg, Va.:  66 degrees

Winchester, Va.:  73 degrees

Annapolis:  45 degrees

Hagerstown:  71 degrees

Martin Airport:  54 degrees

Martinsburg, W. Va.:  71 degrees.

Baltimore Sun:  65 degrees

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:49 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

That crash you heard this morning all over Baltimore was the sound of another record falling. This morning's low of 10 degrees just before dawn at BWI-Marshall Airport was the coldest official reading on a March 3 since record-keeping began in 1871. It shattered the previous record of 12 degrees, last reached downtown on this date in 1925.

And if you were outside in the wind for any length of time this morning, you appreciated just how cold that was. It's just not supposed to feel that bitterly cold in March.

And we're not likely to see the wet side of freezing at all today. The forecast high is just 27 degrees. That, too, will see us flirting with a record. The coldest high temperature on record for a March 3 in Baltimore is 26 degrees, set on this date in 1960. 

Forecasters are calling for a low tonight of just 11 degrees. No record will be in jeopardy, however. It was just 5 degrees in Baltimore on March 4, 1873.

It's been quite a week for weather records in Charm City. On Saturday we set a new record low for precipitation in February - a mere .26 inch at BWI. On Monday we set a new record for snowfall on a March 2 in Baltimore - 4.7 inches. That beat the previous record of 3.7 inches set back in 1969. There was 8.3 inches by 10 a.m. yesterday in Annapolis, where Sun photographer Ken Lam captured the image above.

Hate snow? Can't wait for spring? Well, have a look at this delightful gallery of snow photos from the Spruce Hill photo blog, and try to remember the magic.

Here are more snow tallies from across the region. And here are several interesting temperature readings around noon Eastern Time today: Jacksonville, Fla. - 50 degrees. Atlanta, Ga. - 37 degrees. Helena, Mont. - 44 degrees.

The good news is that we are headed up the slope toward more springlike weather by the weekend. We are under a very strong, very cold dome of high pressure. Highs circulate clockwise, so as this high moves east, we'll lose the cold northwest winds and come into the return flow of warmer breezes from the south by Wednesday. 

The forecast calls for daytime highs to reach 53 degrees by Friday, just above the normal high for this time of year at BWI. Saturday could reach 57 degrees, and Sunday could hit 60. (Who remembers it was 65 at the airport last Friday?)

We should be looking at sunshine throughout the period (and good stargazing, especially tonight), with no rain in the forecast until showers threaten on Monday. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: By the numbers
        

The forecasters out at Sterling have posted their snow forecast map for accumulations from mid-day yesterday.

Looks like Calvert and St. Mary's counties top the actual tallies with 11-12 inches. Yesterday's Winter Storm Warning called for 6 to 10 inches. Not a bad call from the looks of this map.

Got this note from Science Officer Steve Zubrick:

"Frank...

Our official NWS total snowfall forecast from yesterday at noon. Port Republic, MD in Calvert Co. reported 11 and 12 inches from 2 observers there. Arlington VA had 2 reports of 8". Herndon VA (my house) in NW Fairfax Co had just over 6".

Steve Z"

In case you missed it, BWI set a new record on Saturday: February 2009 was the driest February on record for Baltimore. Only 0.26 inch of precipitation fell during the month, breaking the old record of 0.36 inch, set in the drought year of 2002.

Another record was broken today. The 5.8 inches of snow that fell today broke the old record of 3.7 inches for the date, set back in 1969.

Today's snow will help put a little moisture back into the soil and the water table.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Somehow, in the middle of winter (okay, we're past the middle), with nothing growing, it's hard to grasp that this has been, so far, the driest February on record for Baltimore. But it has. Barely 0.24 inch of melted precipitation has fallen so far this month.

The stingy dribbles we've received at the station of record (BWI) have been few and far between. There were traces on six dates, and measurable amounts on just three dates:

Feb. 3:  0.04 inch

Feb. 11:  0.08 inch

Feb. 18:  0.12 inch

The snow was even scarcer - 0.6 inch in just two events, on the 4th and the 18th, plus two days when mere traces of flakes were recorded at BWI.

This could all change before the month finally ends on Saturday night. Forecasters out at Sterling are predicting a "slight chance" of showers Thursday night, followed by "likely" (70 percent chance) showers on Friday, tapering to 30 percent Friday night.

In all, they're calling for as much as a quarter- to a half-inch of rain on Friday as warm, moist air moves in with a warm front from the South, all ahead of the next cold front. Even if the forecast holds up, February 2009 would still deliver less than an inch of rain total, and would still rank among the 10 driest Februaries since record-keeping began in Baltimore in 1871. Here are the Top Ten Dry February rankings:

2009 (so far):  0.24 inch

2002:  0.36 inch

1978:  0.56 inch

1977:  0.63 inch

1901:  0.65 inch

1968:  0.72 inch

1991:  0.73 inch

1895:  0.83 inch

1974:  0.94 inch

1925:  0.98 inch

The lack of precipitation has expanded the proportion of Maryland that is now rated as "abnormally dry" to encompass more than half the state, basically from Baltimore south on both sides of the Chesapeake Bay. Here's last week's Drought Monitor map. This week's map comes out tomorrow morning.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:27 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
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Today's windstorm has caused widespread damage as trees and limbs brought down power lines, struck homes and crushed cars. It even contributed to the partial collapse of an empty building at 1226 Argyle Ave., in Baltimore (above). Read more here.

Here are some top gusts recorded by WeatherBug stations across the region:

65 mph:  Rockville

63 mph:  Urbana High School, Ijamsville

60 mph:  Rocky Hill Middle School, Clarksburg

59 mph:  Montgomery County DPW, Poolesville

57 mph:  Winters Mill High School, Westminster

56 mph:  Maryland Science Center, Baltimore

56 mph:  Mt. Airy Christian Academy, Mt. Airy

54 mph:  Anne Arundel Community College, Hanover

54 mph:  Montgomery Blair High School, Silver Spring

52 mph:  Bowie State University, Bowie

52 mph:  St. Martin School, Gaithersburg

53 mph: BWI Marshall Airport (NWS report)

National Weather Service reports described trees and power lines down in Carroll, Montgomery, Washington and Allegany counties. Baltimore County schools reported a tree down at the Chatsworth School in Reisterstown around noon today. Eight cars were damaged. Five were undrivable.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:36 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The high temperature of 65 degrees Saturday at Dulles International Airport set a new record for the date, topping the old record of 59 degrees, set in 2005.

At BWI, the Saturday high of 62 degrees fell just short of the record - 64 degrees, set in 1904.

Today's record high temperature at BWI is 70 degrees, set on this date in 1965. The forecast high for this afternoon is 67 degrees. It was 64 degrees at noon.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: By the numbers
        

The coldest morning in years.  BWI was reporting 2 degrees this morning. It's not a record. It was minus-7 degrees on this date in 1982 - equaling the coldest reading on record for Baltimore on any date. But it was a remarkable low - the lowest in many years.

Here (as soon as Sterling gets around to updating it) will be a low-temperature map of the region. We can say that BWI saw a low of 2 degrees. National Airport was 9 degrees. Dulles Airport touched 1 degree (as did the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville). Charlottesville, Va. reported minus-1 degree.

Here's the forecast. And here's this morning's weather discussion from Sterling.

I will be on the go today. Will try to post your comments ASAP. Bundle up!

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: By the numbers
        

They said we would struggle make 20 degrees today, and they were right. The high recorded this afternoon at BWI-Marshall was a mere 18 degrees. It was also 18 just after midnight. The overnight low this morning was 10. We'll likely go lower tonight, but maybe not before midnight.

The Science Center high was also 18 degrees.

The record low for a Jan. 16 in Baltimore is 1 degree, in 1893. The record low maximum for the date is 14 degrees, set on the same day in 1893. So no record was broken.

Here at The Sun's weather station at Centre and N. Calvert streets, our high this afternoon was 17 (after a high for the date of 18, after midnight). The low was 13 degrees. Again, we may see a lower minimum before the day ends at midnight. It's only 16 as I write this at 5:10 p.m.

Send me your readings. Be sure to say where you are. I'll post them as soon as I see them.

BTW, the Sterling folks have also trimmed their forecast for Saturday's high temperature. Once predicted to reach 30 degrees, the high is now expected to go no higher than 22 degrees - just 4 degrees warmer than today. If you're headed to the ObamaRama at City Hall, bear that in mind. It will be frigid.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: By the numbers
        

That was bracing! Overnight lows ranged from around minus-8 degrees out in Garrett County, to about 11 degrees in Aberdeen. Here is a map with National Weather Service observer reports.

We recorded a low of 10 degrees out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. The mercury here at The Sun's weather command center was 12.4 degrees, which held pretty steady until 10 a.m. The low out at BWI Marshall Airport was 10 degrees, reached just before 7 a.m.

And as if that weren't enough, the forecasters at Sterling say we're in for even colder lows tonight, after a day that will struggle to top 20 degrees - about 20 degrees below the long-term average for the date. The forecast low for BWI tonight is just 7 degrees. That would be the coldest since an 6-degree morning back on Jan. 10, 2004. 

The good news is that skies tonight will be crystal clear under this huge, dry arctic high-pressure system parked over the eastern half of the country (left).Last night's sky was crammed with bright winter stars, and the evening commute home was graced by the brilliant planet Venus, high in the southwestern sky. Venus is near its highest position this winter, setting a full three hours after the sun. Turn to the east and you can admire the bright stars of the constellation Orion, with his familiar three-star belt. I went up the street to get the mail last night, turned and headed back to the house while gaping at the night sky. Got so distracted I walked right past my own house. Beautiful.

From here the weather will warm a bit - rising nearly to the freezing mark Saturday afternoon in advance of the president-elect's visit to Baltimore. If you're going, dress warmly, then add another layer. Hours of standing in the sub-freezing cold will take a toll on you, and in that crowd, it will not be quick or easy to get to someplace warm.

Continue reading "Brrrrr !! And colder tonight !" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
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Sure, there were some pretty brisk winds in Maryland on New Year's Eve. They forced the postponement of the fireworks at the Inner Harbor.

But the peak gust at BWI was 51 mph. Imagine a gust to 132 mph, and average winds above 90 mph. That's what they recorded on top of Mt. Washington in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Here's how Mike Clark, the blogger at the Mt. Washington Observatory described it:

"Well, perhaps windy is an understatement. For 21 hours yesterday, a wind gust of at least 100 mph was recorded with the peak for the day being 132 mph. Perhaps even more impressive was the fact that for 9 hours, the average wind speed for those hours exceeded 100 mph with a peak hourly average wind speed for the day of 111 mph.

"Remember, that is not a wind gust, that is an average wind speed for an entire hour. The average wind speed for the entire day was 92.3 mph. That average would have probably been 100 mph if winds hadn't diminished to around 70 mph for the last 3 hours of the day. Also impressive was the overall gustiness of the wind, or the difference between peaks and lulls. For most of the day, winds would lull to around 40-60 mph and then gust over 120 mph in mere seconds."

NOTE: The world's highest recorded surface wind speed was clocked at the observatory on April 12, 1934 - an astonishing 231 mph.

Continue reading "And you thought Dec. 31 was windy ..." »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:40 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

December ended with a windy, frigid flourish that (mercifully) postponed the New Year's Eve fireworks at the Inner Harbor until the next night (above). Sustained winds on Dec. 31 peaked at 38 mph at the airport, with gusts to 51.)

But on the whole, the month was a bit milder than the long-term average for Decembers at BWI-Marshall Airport, with even less than the scant 1.7 inches of snow that is the December average. Traces were noted on seven other dates. Western Maryland saw far more from storms blowing off the Great Lakes.

That's not to say we didn't have our wintry cold snaps. After a mild start, December sank into a four-day cold spell in which daytime highs got stuck in the 30s for three days (Dec. 6-8). Lows reached the high teens, with the month's low of 18 degrees touched on the 6th. That period delivered the only measurable snowfall for the month, the meager 0.6 inch that fell on Dec. 6.

Things warmed up after that, with highs of 66 degrees at the airport on Dec. 10, and 67 degrees on the 15th. There was more cold weather just before Christmas, with temperatures averaging 12 or 13 degrees below the long-term norms, on the 22nd and 23rd.

But readings warmed into the 50s and 60s on six dates beginning on the 24th. The month's high was 69 degrees, recorded on Dec. 28.

So, on average, the month ended 1.8 degrees above the long-term norms. Precipitation was slightly below. Twenty-seven dates were rated as cloudy or partly cloudy. But we saved a bit of cash on our heating bills, with heating degree-days ending about 6.2 percent below the average for BWI.

January is our coldest month, with average highs of just 41 degrees before they begin to rise again on Jan. 30. The average low sink to 23 degrees from the 11th through the 26th before they begin to climb again toward spring.

The average snow total for a January in Baltimore is 7 inches, our snowiest month over the long haul. But we've had that much snow or more in January only four times in the last 20 years:

January 1996: 32.6 inches

January 2000: 23.1 inches

January 2004: 8.4 inches

January 2005: 7.6 inches

That's about one in four years. Seems like we're due, no?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:46 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Be thankful if you didn't have to be outdoors for more than a few minutes today. The mercury topped out at 30 degrees this afternoon at BWI, failing to reach the freezing mark for only the third day this year. That may say more about how mild last winter was than anything else. And it was far from the record for the date: High - 23, low 10, on Dec. 8, 1882.

But it does underscore how cold it's been in December - more than 5 degrees below normal for the month so far.

Here are the three dates we've failed to reach freezing in 2008:

Dec. 8:  High - 30 degrees; Low - 19 degrees

Jan. 21: High - 28 degrees; Low - 8 degrees

Jan. 3:  High - 31 degrees;  Low - 18 degrees

The forecast looks better for a few days, and downright balmy (63) on Wednesday. Then things get cold again, with snow and rain in the forecast for Thursday and Friday.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:38 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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November departed overnight, its meteorological numbers settling into the record books very close to the long-term averages for BWI. The only category that departed a bit from the 30-year norm was rainfall, which fell about a half-inch short.

First, the temperatures. Lots of us may remember November 2008 as being unusually cold. That's mostly because the last half of the month fell persistently below the averages. From the 17th to the 29th, only one day saw above-average temperatures. The coldest (and clearest) was the 22nd, when the mercury at BWI-Marshall struggled to reach 36 degrees, and sank to 24 degrees, for an average of 30, which was 14 degrees below normal for the date.

The cold days allowed the region its first snowflakes of the season (above). We saw traces at BWI on the 18th, 21st and 25th. That gave us an average of, well, a trace for the month. The average for November at BWI is 0.6-inch.

The cold weather also cost us a little bit extra on our heating bills, with the number of heating degree-days (a measure of heating demand) about 2 percent above the average for November.

The cold spell was offset, however, by the warm start we saw. The first week of November saw highs in the 60s and 70s, with lows only in the high 40s and 50s. The 6th and 7th averaged 14 degrees above the long-term averages for the dates.

On balance, BWI averaged 45.4 degrees for the month, just a tenth of a degree below the long-term average.

As for precipitation, most of it fell as rain from the 12th through the 15th, with a total of 1.56 inches over those four days. The rest of the month generated barely an inch more. The month's total of 2.61 is 0.51 below the average for a November at BWI.

Only one day in November (the 22nd) was rated as "clear" by the weather service. Nine were cloudy, the rest partly cloudy. 

Anybody else out there with a barometer notice how low it fell yesterday? Ours here at The Sun sank to 29.31 inches around 11 p.m. last night before it turned around. It's climbed only to 29.57 as I write.

We can thank the intense low-pressure center now over the Great Lakes, headed toward Quebec. That storm system is influencing conditions throughout the eastern half of the country, dumping snow on Chicago, rain here and up the coast, and forcing NASA to land the shuttle Endeavour in California because of bad weather at Cape Canaveral.    

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:16 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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We used to call this Irish mist. Dew points are at or near the temperature readings, pushing relative humidities into the high 90s to 100 percent this morning. That means fog and drizzle across the region. The fog delayed school openings on the Eastern Shore, while wet streets and slick leaves slowed the ayem rush. 

Feels like Ireland.

Rain totals yesterday ranged from a half to one inch. The highest totals were scattered across the region, as far-flung as Thurmont in Frederick, Dunkirk in Calvert, and Brandywine down in Prince George's County.

We clocked just under a half-inch here at The Sun, after we got the station up and running again. The weather service's station at BWI-Marshall reported 0.8 inch by midnight. We had 0.6 inch out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville.

By tomorrow, the next cold front will be moving through, bringing more widespread showers - another inch, perhaps, before it's over - and perhaps some thunderstorms and gusty winds. Behind the cold front there's sunshine right through next Thursday, but also a sharp change in temperatures. Cold Canadian air will push all the way to the Gulf of Mexico, with a reinforcing cold front on Monday. The western slopes of the Alleghenies could see snow. Our temperatures by daybreak on Tuesday will be in the mid-20s.

Nothing like Ireland.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:14 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Many locations west of the I-95 corridor received more than an inch of rain on Saturday. One would guess that the heavy rain helped bring what had been a very dry October more into line with the long-term averages. It sure helped.

But for many locations, including the official station at BWI Marshall, we remain very dry for the month. High winds during the height of the storm yesterday afternoon reached 20 mph at BWI, with gusts to 29 mph, resulting in thousands of power outages. Only a few thousand  of the 20,000 or so affected by the storm are still without power this morning.

Here are some unofficial rain totals from CoCoRaHS:

Thurmont:  1.56 inches

Taneytown:  1.44 inches

Sykesville:  1.40 inches

Cockeysville:  1.36 inches

Ellicott City:  1.32 inches

Fallston:  1.26 inches

Columbia:  1.12 inches

Towson:  .81 inches

Crofton:  0.68 inches

Pasadena:  0.53 inches

Easton:  0.38 inches

Out at BWI they recorded just 0.72 inches, bringing the month's total to only 0.84 inches. That is 1.73 inches below the average for the month through yesterday's date. If we get no more rain through the end of the month (Friday), which seems likely, this would become the fifth-driest October for Baltimore since 1963: 

October 1963: Trace (record)

October 2000:  0.08 inch

October 1978:  0.71 inch

October 2001:  0.78 inch

October 2008:  0.84 inch

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:25 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: By the numbers
        

It was starting to feel a little chilly around the edges at home this morning, and I confess I thought about turning on the heat to take the edge off. But I didn't. It was 37 degrees out on the Weatherdeck in Cockeysville, but still in the high 60s inside. Still no excuse for burning dollars and pumping more CO2 into the air.

That day is coming. I usually cave before Nov. 1. But the outlook is for some warming in Baltimore through the rest of the week, so I know I can get through the next week or so.

Still, while it was still quite mild near the bay and the ocean, the temperatures dropped sharply last night north and west of the city. BWI still hasn't recorded a night in the 30s this fall, but others have. Here's a sampling of some overnight lows:

BWI: 41 degrees

The Sun (downtown Baltimore):  47 degrees

Annapolis:  51 degrees

Ocean City:  50 degrees

Reagan National (DC): 50 degrees

Dulles International:  42 degrees

Hagerstown:  38 degrees

Martinsburg, WV:  36 degrees

Frederick:  34 degrees

York, PA:  33 degrees

Here's a NWS map with some more observations.

Tonight should be clear, a good opportunity to catch the International Space Station as it orbits from high over Lake Michigan and Central Virginia to the Outer Banks. The times are slightly different than those we published in the print editions on Sunday. That's because the Russians gave the ISS an orbital boost over the weekend, increasing its altitude and thereby putting it about a minute behind the previous flyby schedule.

Watch for a bright, star-like object to rise above the northwestern horizon at 8:01 p.m. It will climb about two thirds of the way up the southeastern sky by 8:04 p.m. It will pass high above the moon and Jupiter and very close to the bright star Altair in the Summer Triangle before vanishing abruptly into the Earth's shadow at 8:05 p.m.

As always, come back here after watching the ISS, leave a comment and share the experience.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:15 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Thirty days hath September, and 10 of them this year produced at least a little rain, according to the National Weather Service. Seven produced heavy rain, and the total - 7.22 inches by midnight last night - made September 2008 the 13th wettest September on the record books for Baltimore. Those books go back 137 years, to 1871.

("Normal" September rainfall for Baltimore is 3.98 inches, the region's wettest month.)

It was the wettest September at BWI since, well, since last year, when the airport instruments recorded 7.56 inches. Here are some other September totals for the last half-century.

1999:  11.50 inches (the second-highest September rainfall)

1975:  8.62 inches

1966:  8.50 inches

2007:  7.56 inches

2003:  7.47 inches

1987:  7.34 inches

2008:  7.22 inches

There were six more Septembers with higher totals than 2008 - all before 1936. The highest was in 1934, when 12.41 inches were recorded for the city.

The 7.22-inch total for last month exceeded the long-term average by 3.24 inches - nearly equal to a month's normal rain fall for Baltimore. All of that and more fell on Sept. 27, when airport instruments recorded 3.57 inches in 24 hours from an Atlantic storm.

Temperatures were also above average by 2 degrees. The high was 93 degrees on the 3rd and 4th. The low at BWI was 49 degrees, on the 21st.

Now it's October's turn. Average daytime temperatures sink from 73 degrees to 62 by month's end. The average lows drop from 50 degrees to 39 degrees. But almost anything can happen.

October's record highs linger in the 90s until mid-October. The record lows are in the 20s and 30s. The coldest October day in Baltimore reached 25 degrees in 1969. 

This is also the earliest month for snow in Baltimore. Yes, snow. Smile, Baltimore, it's that time of year again.

The earliest recorded snowfall for the city was on Oct. 9, 1903, when a trace was reported. The earliest measurable snowsfall was on Oct. 10, 1979, when 0.3 inch was noted at the airport. The most recent October snowfall was the trace that fell on Oct. 22, 2003.

But October snows have never been anything to worry about. The deepest on record was 2.5 inches of the White Death. It fell on Oct. 30, 1925.

If you really want to break some sort of historic weather record this month, pray for 2.23 inches of rain on Oct. 25. That would break a rain record for that date that has stood unassailed since 1872, the year after they started recorded the weather for Baltimore.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Somehow, I managed to be on my way to Pittsburgh while the heavens were opening up on Severn, Baltimore, Towson and Cockeysville on Saturday. I posted once early in the morning before we left, and again from the road a couple of times, but a slow hotel connection hobbled my efforts. Suffice it to say it was a very impressive display by Mother Nature. But if you were here, you already know all that. Here are a few of the rainfall totals for the three-day storm:

Towson: 5.36 inches

Cockeysville:  4.56 inches

Hamilton (in Baltimore City): 4.50 inches

BWI: 4.15 inches 

Severn:  4.28 inches.

Blame the Atlantic low that went ashore in South Carolina, turned and wandered slowly up the Appalachians over the weekend.

The street flooding here was dramatic in the usual low spots in Cockeysville (Beaver Run and York Road) and down along the Jones Falls in the city and county.

Here is a more comprehensive rundown on rain totals.  The September total for BWI is now 6.73 inches. That's almost 3 inches above the norm for BWI in September, but a long way from the record of 12.41 inches, set in September 1934. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Well, July is finally behind us, and it was a wet one. The bulk of the month's rain, of course, fell on one day - the 2.42-inch deluge on Wednesday, July 23 (see photo). That was the official total at the airport. Other locations will have different numbers. We had only 1.4 inches on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville, and 1.89 inches here at Calvert & Centre streets (until the weather took our station off-line).

The month's total rainfall came to 5.47 inches at BWI. That was 1.62 inches above the long-term July average for the airport, and it continues what is now a four-month stretch of extra precipitation that has added 7.39 inches of surplus to our totals for BWI.

For the year since January, we are now running a 4.61-inch surplus. Only January and March saw deficits.

July was also notable for its heat. The average temperature for the month at BWI was 77.5 degrees, one degree above the 30-year average. Yesterday, with a high of just 84 degrees at the airport, was the third-coolest day of the month.

At no time in July did the airport fail to top 80 degrees. There were 10 days in the 90s - equal to July 2007. That brings the total for the summer to 19 days - two more than last year. But we're running well behind 2006, when we'd had a total of 24 days in the 90s by the end of July (with 13 more to come in August of that very hot summer).

The airport high for the month was 94 degrees, on the 20th. The low was 59 degrees, on the 25th. The longest stretch of hot weather was a seven-day streak of 90-plus days, between the 16th and the 22nd.

Only five days in July were rated as cloudy. Two were clear. The rest were "partly cloudy."

We're two-thirds of the way through the meteorological summer now, but only one-third through the hurricane season, which doesn't peak for another month. So far, so good. Look for a chance for showers or thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday evening. Otherwise, we seem to be stuck in a long stretch of sunny days, with highs near 90 degrees. Sunday will be the best of the batch - sunny and 86 if the forecast holds up.

Watch Sunday's paper for details on a nice pass by the International Space Station, which will fly almost directly over Baltimore - very bright - on Tuesday evening Aug. 5, and then vanish. The long-range forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies that night. We'll see. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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In the middle of a punishing heat wave 72 years ago today, somebody up at the Northern Police Station on Keswick Road in Baltimore, had the bright idea of seeing how hot it was in the direct sunlight.

Now, it was plenty hot in the shade. The temperature had reached 103 degrees the day before -  July 9. Baltimoreans were collapsing in the streets, and at work. Twenty-eight had swooned by the 10th, as a heat wave swept much of the nation, killing 331. Most people had no access to air conditioning in those days. Hundreds moved to the city parks in search of a good night's sleep.

By the next day, the papers said, the national toll had climbed to 658 souls. By some accounts, the Great heat Wave of June and July 1936 was the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history, with as many as 5,000 killed. It was worst in the Midwest. In Baltimore, they counted one dead - a 10-day-old infant found in his crib - and 44 "prostrated." Frederick reported a high of 109 degrees - still the state record.

Here's the NWS account. And, for what it's worth, Wikipedia's.

BG&E offered Evening Sun readers Westinghouse electric fans "as low as $2.98." Stewart's urged customers to "step out of the heat into cool comfort" with "Misses' Chiffon Frocks with Slips" for $5.99.  

Anyway, according to The Evening Sun's account of the police experiment, officers moved the thermometer to a sunny windowsill and waited. "Up went the mercury to 100 degrees - 105! - 110! - 120! On that thermometer 120 degrees was the maximum marking, but the instrument seemed determined to go higher or bust. Well - It busted!"

Over at the Northeastern Precinct, they tested the temperature in the "cooler," and found that prisoners were enjoying a relatively chilly 83 degrees.  Out on a lamp post in front of the station it was 110 degrees.

In the 200 block of W. 29th St., the Evening Sun reported (nothing was too small to make the paper in those days) a carrier pigeon dropped from the sky. He took a drink from a rivulet emerging from a hose, rested a bit, then moved to a windowsill to spend the night. Revived by morning, he resumed his mission.

At 3 p.m., the National Weather Service reported a high temperature of 107 degrees at the U.S. Customs House in downtown Baltimore. It was a new record for the city, breaking the 105-degree mark set on Aug. 6, 1918. The new record has never been broken .

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The showers that passed through Baltimore this afternoon dropped more than a third of an inch of rain on The Sun's weather instruments at Calvert & Centre streets. It fell as fast as 3.3 inches an hour at one point. Here's the radar loop.

The storm also sent the thermometer plummeting - down 14 degrees in less than an hour, from 89 degrees at 5 p.m. to 75 degrees just before 6 p.m.

You can see it all online.

We'd love to hear how the storm was where you are. Leave us a comment. Send us pictures.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:55 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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We're a bit late here taking a look back at the weather for Baltimore during the past month. Just threw out the last wedding guests.

After a cool and very wet May, June at BWI resumed the warm pattern that has prevailed here since the beginning of the year. Temperatures at the airport averaged 75.3 degrees last month. That was 3.5 degrees above the long-term average of 71.8 degrees, and made it the warmest June since 1994, and the fourth-warmest in Baltimore in 65 years.

1943:  79.8 degrees

1994:  77.2 degrees

1949:  75.6 degrees

2008:  75.3 degrees

So far this year, only May ended cooler than the norm.

Precipitation was close to the June average for BWI, at 3.70 inches. The long-term average is 3.43 inches. Ten days saw measurable rainfall.

The high temperature for the month was 96 degrees, on the 10th. The low was 52 degrees, on June 18. No new records were set.

Not unexpectedly, given the warm temperatures, we ran well ahead on cooling degree-days, a measure of the demand for energy for cooling. We were up 34 percent over the average for June.

Looking ahead, July is typically our hottest month, with average temperatures peaking third week in the high 80s. The all-time record high temperature for Baltimore is 107 degrees, set on July 10, 1936. Only 7 dates have record highs of less than 100 degrees.

The coolest record daily high for the month (and therefore the easiest record to break) is 97 degrees, set on July 12, 1908 and July 24, 1987.

The record low for the month in Baltimore is 50 degrees, set on July 1, 1988 and again on July 3, 2001. The warmest record low is 59 degrees, set July 19, 1962.

The wettest July on record for Baltimore was in 1889, when 11.03 inches fell. The driest was in 1955, with just 0.3 inches in the gauge.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Okay, so it will never rival the National Weather Service, or even the BWI data available in the Almanac section of MarylandWeather.com.

But our data archive here at The Sun's little Davis Vantage Pro 2 weather station (like the one at left) is slowly expanding. We have today managed to upload measurements taken between Jan. 1, 2008 and the present, which you can access here.

Next, we plan to upload all the readings we've gathered since the station was established at Calvert & Centre streets, WAY back on Sept. 6, 2006. It's a slow process. It takes about a minute for each day of data, so we will likely have to leave the computer running overnight.

The kink in the system is that, while we're uploading, we can't post current data. That means once the old numbers are moved, we have to go back and recover the readings that we couldn't upload in real time. Then we have to upload those, which means more current data is delayed.  Arrrgghh!

So be patient with us. We're working on it.

In the meantime, if you need to know the barometric pressure at 3:10 p.m. on Feb. 16, 2008 (it was 30.31 inches), or for any other 10-minute interval since Jan. 1, you can look it up here for free. 

The Sun station data has been accessed more than 2,800 times already. Is this Weather Geek Heaven, or what?  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Another chilly day for Central Maryland today as the high at BWI stalled  at the 56-degree mark. That is 20 degrees below the normal highs for a May 20 in Baltimore, and just three degrees above the all-time low maximum temperature for a May 20 in Baltimore - 53 degrees, set on this date in 1994.

The high here at Calvert & Centre streets managed to climb all the way to 57 degrees after the sun came out.

Back on May 12 the high at BWI was just 50 degrees, and that did set a record for the date, breaking the 126-year-old record of 51 degrees, set in Baltimore WAY back, on May 12, 1882.

They're calling for a low tonight in the 40s. It's great we haven't had to run the AC yet this year. But we sure did have to throw another blanket on the bed last night. The low at BWI this morning was 44 degrees, just five degrees warmer than the all-time record low for the date - 39 degrees, set in 2002.

So far, we're running almost 2 degrees cooler than normal for the month. Rain is way ahead. We're at 7.52 inches so far through today, making this the second-wettest May on record for Baltimore. The record is 8.71 inches, set in May 1989.  May rainfall has topped 7 inches only three other times:

1894:  7.26 inches

1960:  7.10 inches

1886:  7.07 inches

But warmer, drier days are coming. The new forecast from Sterling says the highs this weekend will stretch into the 70s, and to the 80s in time for Memorial Day. That's - well above the mark predicted in earlier forecasts. 

 Freckles seeks shelter from light rain during Memorial Day observances in Timonium in 2004. Sun photo by Glenn Fawcett.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The National Weather Service forecast office out at Sterling, Va., has issued a revised rainfall map covering all five days of showers and downpours from May 8 through 12. It's pretty darned impressive, especially if you live in Calvert County or parts of Anne Arundel, Prince George's County and Northern Virginia, where there seem to be patches with more than 8 inches. Feast your eyes: 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
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The heaviest rain is moving off to the northeast, but here the drip goes on. We have another half-inch of rain in our rain gauge this morning here at Calvert and Centre streets. That's about what they've receive down at BWI, too. But the airport is well ahead of downtown Baltimore in total rain for the month to date. And they could be headed for a record-wet May.

Chris Strong, the NWS warning coordination meteorologist out at the Sterling forecast office, reports this morning that BWI received 6.17 inches of rain between May 1 and midnight last night. Since then the airport has recorded another .56 inch. That's 6.73 inches in all. And it's only the 16th of May. (The long-term average for May in Baltimore is 3.89 inches.)

Here are some other measurements across the region. Some spots have seen more than an inch.

The record precipitation for a May in Baltimore was 8.71 inches, set back in May 1989. So if we can squeeze out another 2 inches in the next 15 days we'll have a new record.

"It's possible .... 8.71 inches certainly wouldn't be out of the question," Strong said.

Why not? We're already well ahead of the pace when compared with May 1989. In that month, the airport had recorded 5.52 inches by May 16. We've seen 6.73 inches - the most ever here for the first 16 days in May, Strong said.

The creeks are rising again. Here's the streamflow map.

And it's been a month of records. Consider:

May 9: Record rainfall for the date - 1.85 inches. That beat the 1.41 inches that fell on the date in 1919.

May 11: Record rainfall for the date - 1.49 inches. That was more than the previous record of 1.28 inches set on May 11, 1924.

May 12: A record low maximum temperature. The thermometer at BWI reached just 50 degrees Monday afternoon.  The previous record was 51 degrees, set way back, on May 12, 1882. The previous record at BWI, where official observations began in 1950, was 57 degrees, set on May 12, 1960.

May 12: Record rainfall for the date - 2.20 inches, besting the 2.06 inches that fell in 1921.

Continue reading "A month of records in Baltimore" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:41 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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Whew! That was a lot of water. But just how much, exactly? The numbers, of course, depend on where you were. The National Weather Service map above shows the heaviest concentration of rain south of Annapolis, chiefly in Calvert County. Here are more rain totals from around the region.

The National Weather Service instruments at Baltimore-Washington International Airport recorded 2.2 inches yesterday, a record for the date. The previous record for rain on a May 12 in Bawlmer was 2.06 inches, set in 1921. It was the third record rain total at BWI since Friday.

Altogether, the airport recorded a five-day total of 6.15 inches. That is 2.28 inches more than the long-(30-year) term average for an entire May in Baltimore. We are also running 4.73 inches ahead of the pace for the first 12 days in May.

The heaviest rain, of course, fell to the south of Baltimore. In fact, our instruments here at Calvert & Centre streets clocked in just 1.61 inches during the Sunday/Monday storm, while the airport saw 3.69  inches. Some locations saw far more, including North Beach, in Calvert County, which topped the state at more than 7 inches.

There's more rain in store. These sunny skies and 70-degree temperatures will hang around for today and tomorrow. But by Thursday you can expect increasing chances for showers as the next storm system and cold front move in from the west, much as they did last week. The next sunshine will be Monday.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Satellite imagery has enabled meteorologists to calculate the amount of rainfall parts of Burma (Myanmar) received during its three-day seige by Cyclone Nargis. The totals are impressive - from 1 to nearly 2 feet across much of the coastal region. And all that rain came on top of a storm surge that swept inland with the storm, inundating much of the very low Irrawaddy River delta with sea water.

Death toll estimates, of course, have been horrific if they prove accurate - in excess of 100,000 people, with a million made homeless. Here is the rainfall map. Six hundred millimeters equals 23.64 inches.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:23 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Woke up this morning to a chilly 35 degrees out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. Started out the door with a light jacket, and my wife stopped me. "Is that going to be enough?" she asked me?

Now, you need to understand that she works for the Baltimore County schools, where they turn off the furnaces on April 15. The staff at her school has been freezing for two weeks. (Sorry. No pay raises, and no heat either for the folks who teach our kids.) She can't wear enough clothes to stay warm in the classroom. It took her all evening at home to warm up again. And our furnace kicked on last night.

But I digress. I stepped outside, and it was cold alright. But I kept the light jacket. The sun was bright and warm, and the air has warmed up quickly this morning. Downtown, at Calvert & Centre streets, the overnight low was only 47 degrees - about normal for this time of year.

Out at BWI, the thermometer slipped to 36 degrees this morning. But as chilly as that was, it was just shy of the record low for an April 30 at BWI, which was 32 degrees, set back in 1961, during the Kennedy Adminstration.

Here are some other overnight lows reported this morning from around the region:

Forecasters are looking for a high this afternoon around 60 degrees, about 10 degrees cooler than the longterm average.

Continue reading "A cold morning, but no record here" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:34 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: By the numbers
        

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says March 2007 was the second-warmest on record globally, but cooler than the long-term average for the contiguous 48 states. In fact, the Western snowpack is the healthiest  in more than a decade, thanks to heavy snowfall in December, January and February.

Here's the full report.

And here are some highlights:

* Temperatures in the lower 48 states averaged 42 degrees in March, almost a half-degree lower than the average for the past 113 years.

* Alaska had its 17th-warmest March, 3.8 degrees above the mean from 1971-2000.

* Globally, land and surface water temperatures averaged 1.28 degrees above the 20th century mean, making it the second-warmest March globally. The average was pushed higher by much-warmer-than-normal temperatures in Eurasia.

* While the Western snowpack fared well in March, snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere was the fourth-lowest on record, consistent with the pattern of the past two decades, in which warming temperatures reduced the northern snow cover.

Extreme events during March included a rare downtown tornado in Atlanta, heavy rains in Missouri, widespread flooding from the Ozarks to Indiana, heavy snows in Kentucky and Ohio.

Here's a NOAA map of some other extreme March events around the world:

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:20 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Yesterday's high of 75 degrees at BWI was no record, but it did close the loop on a year in which only one month - December - failed to reach 70 degrees at the airport.

The mid-afternoon high stopped well short of the record high of 88 degrees for the date, set in 1978. From here on out the daily record highs are all in the 80s or higher. And, truth be told, temperatures in the 60s and 70s are not unheard of at any time of year in Baltimore. The record highs for December, January and February are all in the 60s and 70s.

Still, it seemed like we visited the balmy 70s quite often in this past winter.

Jan. 7:  70 degrees

Jan. 8:  70 degrees

Feb. 6:  72 degrees

Feb. 18:  71 degrees

Mar. 4:  71 degrees

Mar. 28:  70 degrees

December, as forecast, was our coolest month of the winter, never reaching the 70s. In fact, we only touched the 60s once, on Dec. 23, when the mercury at the airport reached 63 degrees.

But, looking back at the records, last winter - 2006-2007 - saw seven days with readings in the 70s, . The high was 75 degrees on Dec. 1. Only February passed without an afternoon in the 70s. It only rose out of the 40s on four dates, making it the coldest February in 30 years. In March last year we enjoyed five dates with highs of 70 or more.

Here is a map showing yesterday's high readings around the region.

Continue reading "Only December failed to reach 70 degrees" »

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

                                                                                 Image supplied by FreeFoto.com 

As the calendar flips over to March this weekend, take a minute to contemplate this: This Easter, on the 23rd, will be the earliest Easter in the entire lifetimes of everyone living on the planet today.

In fact, it's the earliest for any year in the 250 years between 1875 and 2124. It is matched only by Easter in 1913 - 95 years ago. So, for a few of our oldest neighbors (my mom among them), this will actually be the second time they've enjoyed an Easter this early.

Under the ecclesiastical rules set centuries ago by the Roman Catholic Church, Easter can fall anywhere between Mar. 22 and April 25, according to calculations by M.J. Montes.  But some dates crop up on the list more frequently than others.

For example, in all of those 250 years, Easter never occurs on Mar. 22 - the earliest date possible. It occurs only once on Mar. 24. That was in 1940 - the rarest Easter date of them all in that quarter-millennium. Easter falls on Mar. 23 only twice (in 1913 and 2008) and just twice on April 24 (in 2011 and 2095). All the rest are more common than this year's Easter date.

The most common dates for Easter between 1875 and 2124? Those would be April 10 and April 17 - with 11 Easters each on those dates.

So what are the rules for setting the dates for Easter?

The shorthand answer has always been that Easter falls on the first Sunday after the first full moon after the Vernal Equinox. This year, the Equinox occurs on Mar. 20, the moon is full on the 21st, and so Easter lands on the 23rd.

The actual rules are a bit more arcane. The quirk is that Church fathers did not adopt the astronomical definition for the Vernal Equinox, which can shift across several dates centered on Mar. 21. Instead, the Church fixed its ecclesiastical equinox on Mar. 21.

They also established "lunation" tables to determine when the full moons occur - tables that track the astronomical full moon, sort of, but not always, according to the U.S. Naval Observatory.

As a result, the ecclesiastical equinox can differ from the astronomical, and the ecclesiastical full moon can stray from the astronomical definition. To make it even more confusing, various branches of Christianity, in particular the Eastern churches that still use the old Julian Calendar, follow their own rules, producing different dates.

The rest of us just check the calendar. Happy Leap Day.

UPDATE: An earlier version of this post mistakenly listed April 25 as another date on which Easter does not occur between 1875 and 2124. In fact, it occurs three times in that period: 1886, 1943 and 2038. The WeatherBlog regrets the error.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Another disappointment for snow lovers and school kids. Today's Alberta Clipper looked pretty for a while. But unless you live in the western counties of Maryland, the accumulations did not impress. They don't call them clippers for nothing. They scoot by quickly. They're also pretty dry. There's not a lot of moisture out there in Alberta and northern Canada - certainly not like those storms that spin out of the Gulf and bury us.

Anyway, here are some snow totals from across the region today. Allegany County takes the prize.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: By the numbers
        

The snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain storm is moving off the coast now. It turns out to have been quite a wet one. Here are some (unofficial) precipitation readings from around the region, as reported by CoCoRaHS. You can multiply each number by 10 to get a rough estimate of how much snow we would have received, had the atmosphere aloft been colder:

Cockeysville: 1.90 inches

Bel Air:  1.82 inches

Ellicott City:  1.77 inches

Columbia:  1.59 inches

Elkridge:  1.49 inches

Havre de Grace:  1.38 inches

Bowie:  1.25 inches

Pasadena:  1.14 inches

Taneytown:  1.06 inches

Frederick:  0.80 inch

For more readings in more locations, click here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:48 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Records have been tumbling all over the place this afternoon.

At BWI, we reached a high temperature of 72 degrees between 1 and 2 p.m., besting the old record of 72 degrees, set on this date in 1938.

There was also a new high temperature record at Reagan National Airport. It was 74 degrees there this afternoon, breaking the 69-degree record set in 1938.

Dulles International also set a new record of 71 degrees today. They broke the old record of 66, set in 1990.

That's all about to come crashing to an end. Here is the Hazardous Weather Advisory posted for this area:

"A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE METROPOLITAN AREAS OF
WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE...THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 7 PM AND 11 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

A surge of warm air from the South, pushing in ahead of a potentially dangerous cold front later today, has driven temperatures at BWI close to a new record this morning.

It was already 66 degrees at BWI at 7 a.m. Our weather station here at Calvert & Centre streets is reading 69 degrees. The record high for this date at BWI is 70 degrees, set back in 1938. With just another little surge of air from Dixie, we will set a new record for today's date.

We nearly set an overnight record, too. The low at 4 a.m. this morning at BWI was 45 degrees. That was just two degrees below the record high minimum temperature for this date - 47 degrees - set in 1991.

After that low was reached, the temperature at the airport jumped 15 degrees, to 60, in just an hour.

All bets are off this afternoon, when a cold front - the same one that has triggered a deadly rash of tornadoes across the South overnight - will cross our region. Forecasters at Sterling say the excitement will begin here after 3 p.m., as showers, thunderstorms, heavy rain and gusty winds mark the frontal passage. Isolated tornadoes are possible. Here's the radar loop.

We can expect up to a quarter-inch of rain, and more in some storm cells. The rain and storms will continue into the early evening, with another qaurter-inch of rain possible.

After the front passes by, we'll notice a wind shift from the southwest to the west, the air will begin to dry out and the skies will clear.

Tomorrow will be sunny and cooler, but daytime highs will still be near 50 degrees - well above the 43-degree norm for this time of year at BWI.

Another cold front will scoot by late on Friday, bringing a bit more rain and dropping our weekend temperatures to the below-normal range. The high on Sunday won't get much above freezing, and the overnight low Monday morning will sink into the teens in many locations.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

There's a warm front on the move through our area today, and by tomorrow we could be threatening a 70-year-old record high temperature for Baltimore.

Forecasters say the high at BWI this afternoon could reach 63 degrees. It was 75 this afternoon in Fredericksburg, Va. But as warm air continues to flow in from the south and southwest, temperatures here tomorrow could reach 69 degrees. That's just one degree shy of the 70-degree record set for Baltimore on a Feb. 6 in 1938. A little sunshine in the afternoon could push us into record territory.

The 30-year average for the 5th and 6th of February in Baltimore is 43 degrees. So we're cruising for a 20-degree departure from the norm this week. Tonight's low may stall at 55 degrees - 12 degrees warmer than the average HIGH for the date. Here's AccuWeather.com's take.

That's a big break for homeowners struggling to keep up with their heating bills this winter. Demand for heating energy, as measured by the degree-day count, is running about 11 percent behind the long-term average for Baltimore.  That's money in our pocket.

But enjoy it while you can, because it won't last. A storm system headed for New England will drag a cold front across Maryland late Wednesday. It could come with showers and thunderstorms in the late morning or early afternoon. As much as a quarter-inch of rain could fall.

Behind the front we'll see clearer, drier weather, and temperatures will fall back to more seasonable numbers. By Saturday night we'll be looking at lows in the mid-20s again. Sunday and Monday won't get out of the mid-30s, if the forecast holds up. That would be 10 degrees below the norms.

The colder air, in turn, could set us up for some wintry weather if the right storm comes along. And next week is, at least statistically, the snowiest of the year. For now, 2007-08 is shaping up as the least snowy in six years. We've had just 7.2 inches at BWI. Our long-term average is 18 inches.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: By the numbers
        

This new storm has already dropped more than a half-inch of rain on instruments here at The Sun, and out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. Officially, out at BWI, they've clocked just over eight tenths of an inch. If you accept the rule of thumb equating an inch of rain to 10 inches of snow (a rule that is not always reliable), we could have been looking at up to 8 inches of snow this morning, with more to come.

UPDATE at 3 p.m.:  We've topped 1.1 inches here at The Sun. BWI has exceeded 1.3 inches. Here are the watches and warnings.

EARLIER: Now try to imagine all this rain as snow, falling on Maryland's Presidential Primary day, Feb. 12. Nice mess, huh? That sort of thing never happened when we voted in May. But I digress.

Icing does not seem to be affecting BGE customers, but Allegheny Power, to our west, has quite a few customers in the dark in West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

Radar suggests we'll catch a little break this morning, then see more rain in the afternoon.

Here are some more rainfall counts from around the region, as gathered by the NWS. Here are more for Maryland, from volunteers with CoCoRaHS.

Freezing rain to the north and west of the urban corridor produced enough ice to worry school officials. Frederick, Carroll and Harford schools elected to close, and Baltimore County shuttered schools in the Hereford Zone, leaving my favorite teacher with nothing to do today.

Remember, you can get all regional schools closing information from BaltimoreSun.com, and even have us email you alerts and updates. Just click here. 

Not much risk of closings next week. They're expecting sunny skies and highs near 50 for the next three days, and near 60 on Tuesday. The long-term forecast holds some more precipitation, all of it liquid. Forecasts of a mild, mostly snow-free winter appear to be holding up well.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: By the numbers
        

The mercury sank to an official low of 8 degrees over night at Baltimore-Washington International Airport. That is plenty cold for Maryland, but far from a record. The record low for Baltimore on a Jan. 21 is minus-6 degrees F, in 1985.

It was 8 degrees out on the Weatherdeck in Cockeysville, too. Here are some other readings from around the region. Feel free to drop us a comment and report your overnight lows. Be sure to include your location.

BWI:  8 degrees

Washington DC:  18 degrees

Dulles International:  7 degrees

Inner Harbor:  16 degrees

Frederick:  5 degrees

Martinsburg:  10 degrees

These mid-winter cold snaps always arrive with big high-pressure systems from the arctic. The barometer reading at BWI at this writing was 30.79 inches. It was 30.82 inches at Washington. That's darn high. You can track the barometer's meanderings on a nifty fever chart, here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:28 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Sure, it's headed for the teens in Baltimore this weekend. But there's a reason we live here and not in Warroad, Minn. Check out this forecast. Arctic air pouring out of Canada is nothing new for them.

Here's a graph of the average daily temperatures in Warroad.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

When two federal scientific behemoths disagree, what's a mere citizen to conclude? Or does it even matter?

Yesterday, both NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their data on global average temperatures for 2007. The bottom line? It was very warm, one of the warmest years on record, and continued a trend that has persisted since the beginning of the last century.

But how exactly did 2007 rank? Well, there the two agencies part company.

Climatologists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in New York, concluded that 2007 tied with 1998 as the planet's "second-warmest year in a century." The record-holder remains 2005. What's more, they said, "Barring a large volcanic eruption, a record global temperature clearly exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the next few years, at the time of the next El Nino, because of the background warming trend attributable to continuing increases of greenhouse gases."

In other words, unless a volcanic blast shades the planet in dust, the warming trend will continue, and will likely peak when the periodic warming of the Pacific, known as El Nino, shifts weather patterns in ways that tend to make things warmer all over.

The map shows where 2007 average temperatures were the warmest relative to the 1951-1980 mean. Cooler colors show where they were cooler than the long-term mean.

NASA GISS also noted that the eight warmest years of the last century have all occurred since 1998, and the 14 warmest have all occurred since 1990. They also note that this especially hot year globally came during a time of low solar irradiance and of La Nina cooling in the Pacific. The steepest warming curve was in the Arctic, which observed record-low sea ice during the summer.

Okay. So what about NOAA?

NOAA's release yesterday reported that global land and ocean surface temperatures in 2007 ranked as the fifth-warmest on record. Taken separately, the average global land surface temperature was  actually the warmest on record, while global ocean tempertaure was the 9th warmest since records began in 1880.

The agency said seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001, while the rate of warming in the last 30 years has been three times the rate during the last century.

Obviously, we are comparing different data sets here, or measuring the 2007 data against different spans of historic records. NASA seems to be using 1900 as a starting point, while NOAA goes back to 1880.

But I'm not sure it really matters. They may see the details differently, but the big picture seems clear. Things have been warming up since at least 1900, and that's not slowing down.

BTW, for the lower 48 states, NOAA found 2007 was the tenth warmest on record, averaging 1.4 degrees above the 20th Century mean of 52.8 degrees F.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Last night's low temperature out at the airport was a too-mild-for-January 59 degrees, occurring just after midnight. The continuing rush of warm, moist air from the southwest ahead of a cold front even drove temperatues higher during the night. At BWI they had climbed to 63 degrees by sunrise.

Under normal circumstances, the pre-dawn low might have qualified as the low for the day. If so, we would have set a new record. The National Weather Service forecast office at Sterling, Va., tells me the record high MINIMUM temperature for Jan. 9 in Baltimore is 50 degrees, set back in 1930. 

But the showers that marked the front's passage - and the clear, dry skies behind it - mean that the thermometer will be dropping later today. And it's more than likely we'll drop well below 50 degrees before midnight tonight. In fact, the forecast low for tonight is 33 degrees. So, no record.

On the other hand, we're looking at one gorgeous day out there. Sunny and unseasonably mild today (though not as warm as yesterday), and clear tonight.

(I got a quick look at Mars through the telescope last night. It's almost directly overhead in the late evening now. My 'scope's too small to reveal any detail, but just seeing the Red Planet as an amber disk, rather than a tiny point of light, is cool enough for me. The Orion Nebula was grand, too. And 60 degrees at 10 p.m.? What a great January night out under the stars!))

But soon the weather moves in again, with another cold front. Look for badly needed rain tomorrow and Friday, followed by a cooler weekend, with highs in the still-too-mild-for-January 40s, and lows, finally, below freezing again. Almost like winter.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

A new, cold, dry air mass brought us crystal clear skies last night. And that allowed what heat we managed to build up Friday to radiate out into space. The result? A brilliant full moon and the coldest temperatures for Baltimore since March 8, when the overnight low reached 14 degrees.

It was 22 degrees this morning out at BWI. That wasn't a record. The low mark for Baltimore on a Nov. 24 is 17 degrees, reached most recently on this date in 1989. The thermometer out here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville reached 20 degrees at 7 a.m., just before sunrise.

Here are some other 7 a.m. readings from across the region:

Reagan National:  31 degrees

Dulles International:  23 degrees

College Park:  25 degrees

Annapolis:  33 degrees

Philadelphia:  28 degrees

Ocean City:  28 degrees

Unfortunately, clouds will be increasing today and tonight, with rain in prospect for Monday. But if you happen to be outdoors tonight - or anytime for the next few weeks - and skies are clear, turn toward the northeast and look for a bright, reddish "star" rising over the horizon. By 9 or 10 p.m. it should be well above the trees. It's Mars, about 60 million miles away and closing rapidly toward its opposition - and closest approach - at Christmastime.

It may look remote and alien, but it is fast becoming one of the best-known places in the solar system, with a fleet of rovers and spacecraft already on the surface, or en route to the surface, or orbiting overhead and taking remarkable photographs.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

There was a lot of talk yesterday about a record high temperature in Baltimore. But according to the numbers posted today by the National Weather Service, no records were broken here.

The high at Baltimore-Washington International Airport on Thanksgiving Day was 74 degrees. That fell two degrees short of the record set on Nov. 22, 1940.

That said, we did see new records for the date set at Washington's Reagan National Airport and out at Dulles International.

The high at National was 77 degrees yesterday before the front came crashing through. That beat the old record of 75 degrees, set on that date in  1979. The high at Dulles was 75, besting the 1979 record by two degrees.

The warm days of November appear to be over. The forecast calls for more seasonable highs in the 40s for the time being. No rain in sight until Monday. Enjoy the weekend.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

No matter how you look at it, we got a bucketful of rain last week. Some locations topped off at more than 5 or 6 inches. The slow but persistent precipitation made a sizable dent in our rain deficit, according to the US Geological Survey. Water tables have begun to rise a bit. But we are not out of the desert yet. The forecast shows no rain at all, and we remain almost half a foot behind the averages in our precipitation for the year.

Here is an (unofficial) list of rainfall data from across the forecast area. And here is a summary of the rain's impact on the drought, from the USGS.

"Rain Helps, But Doesn't Cure Maryland's Drought

"The rain last week helped to alleviate the drought affecting parts of Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia, but has not eliminated it entirely.  Hydrologic conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region remain abnormally dry, but are slowly recovering, according to scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).  The National Weather Service reported a total of 5.44 inches of rainfall at BWI airport from the storm, which began last Tuesday night and continued through Saturday.  The above normal precipitation last week reduced the 2007 rainfall deficit since January 1 to 5.75 inches, from what had been a deficit of 10.63 inches prior to the storm.

"USGS streamgages showed that streamflows in the region climbed to moderately high levels during last week's storm, but once the rain and runoff subsided, the flows dropped quickly back to base levels.  Soils have been saturated near the surface, and the moisture is gradually making its way down to the water table.  Water tables are still rebounding from near record lows, however, resulting in the unusually low base flows in streams.

"USGS real-time observation wells in Baltimore County show water tables leveling off over the weekend, while ground-water levels in Frederick County wells are beginning to rise.  Water tables on the Eastern Shore have also stopped falling.  Ground water usually begins to recharge in mid-October, and scientists were growing concerned as levels continued to drop into the latter part of the month.  The late-October turnaround provides a hopeful sign that drought conditions could end with a few more precipitation events.  Information on water conditions in the MD-DE-DC area is available on the web at: http://md.water.usgs.gov/waterdata/

"The USGS has begun more frequent measurement of ground-water levels.  Data are being collected every two weeks, instead of at the usual monthly intervals, until hydrologic conditions return to normal.  Ground-water data from the next set of measurements will be available in early November."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:21 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Had to toss the car trunk this morning to find the ice scraper. There was a pretty good coating on the windshield as I stepped outside. The low before sunrise on the WeatherDeck today was just 30 degrees, the first frost for us.

Not so cold in the city, or even out at BWI. The official low at the airport was 34 degrees. That was 5 degrees cooler than the average low for the date, but 8 degrees warmer than the record low for an Oct. 29 at BWI - 26 degrees, set back in 2001.

At the Maryland Science Center, beside the still-warm harbor water, the low was just 44 degrees.  Here are some other low readings from around the area:

Dulles International:  31 degrees

Reagan National:  41 degrees

Frederick Airport:  28 degrees

Hagerstown:  32 degrees

Martinsburg, WV:  28 degrees

Morgantown, WV:  30 degrees

For the record, the airport has now received 5.85 inches of rain this month, and it does not look like we'll have any more this week. Here's the forecast. That leaves us with a 2.99-inch surplus for the month of October, the first time since April we've had any extra rain. We're still about 5.5 inches short for the year.

The sunny skies mean starry nights. If you haven't looked already, I urge you to take a look at Comet Holmes, now visible in the evening sky. Here's our previous post on the topic. Here's one with a star map.

I had my first look last night.

It was clearly visible to the naked eye, although it looked no different than nearby stars. With binoculars, however, it was obviously very different - a swollen ball of gas and dust that looked sort of like a gray billiard ball. No tail yet.  With a small telescope it was pretty much the same as in binoculars, only bigger. And weirder. Go see it. Take the kids. Here's a photo gallery.

If you're down at the Inner Harbor, look for Herman Heyn, Baltimore's Streetcorner astronomer. He introduced plenty of people to the new comet this weekend. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

In just four days, one of the driest Octobers on record for Baltimore has become a very wet one. And it's still raining at 8 a.m. Here's the radar loop.  But then, if your roof leaks, or your basement floods, you already knew that. 

Nearly 2.5 inches of rain fell through the gauges at Baltimore-Washington International Airport yesterday, and another 1.5 inches has fallen since midnight. That has lifted the month's total from 0.41 inches on Tuesday, to 5.74 inches at this writing. It's not close to the record. And, curiously, it barely stands out among what has become a long string of wet Octobers in recent years.

But it sure has come as a welcome surprise. Here's how it stacks up so far against recent Octobers:

2007:  5.74 inches

2006:  5.75 inches

2005:  9.23 inches (the record)

2004:  1.26 inches

2003:  5.82 inches

2002:  6.01 inches

The 30-year average:  3.16 inches

Here are some totals from around the region. 

The radar loop shows the fire hose that's been playing on us since Tuesday night, with a steady stream of wet, tropical air from the Gulf and the Atlantic, is moving off this morning. Once it's gone, the forecast for the rest of the weekend, and well into next week, looks a whole lot more like the first three weeks of October. Sunny and dry, and a bit cool for this time of year. 

As welcome as this has been, we are still 7 or 8 inches short of precipitation for the year. The wells and reservoirs still need more recharging over the winter if we're to avoid serious problems in the spring and summer. And the long-range forecasts still call for dry, mild weather through the coming winter.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

The drizzle and spit continues across the region, and in some places it has produced some impressive overnight totals. More than 2 inches of rain had fallen by daybreak today in parts of Prince George's County and on the lower Eastern Shore, where they badly need rain for the winter grain crops. Here are some totals, taken from the online resources of the volunteer Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network (CoCoRaHS). 

Friendly, PG:  2.57 inches

Oxon Hill, PG:  2.15 inches

Salisbury, Wicomico:  2.05 inches

Pasadena, AA Co.:  1.11 inches

Ellicott City, Howard Co.:  1.00 inch

Eldersburg, Carroll Co.:  0.96 inch 

Jacksonville, Baltimore Co.:  0.9 inch

Long Green, Baltimore Co.:  0.89 inch

Cockeysville, Baltimore Co.:  0.65 inch

Officially, Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport has recorded 1.2 inches since the rain began, bringing the month's official total to about 1.6 inches. The average for an October in Baltimore is 3.16 inches, so we're still running very dry. 

CoCoRaHS also has makes its data available in clickable map form. Click here, pick your state and county, and hit Search. Then you can click on the colored dots to zoom in.

There's is still plenty of moisture available, sweeping north from the Gulf and the Atlantic. The image at the top of this post is a water vapor image from a NOAA satellite. There's more rain expected through Saturday.

And it comes none too soon. This week's Drought Monitor map, which shows agricultural drought conditions across the state as they stood on Tuesday, rated 6.5 percent of Maryland to be in "extreme" drought for the first time this summer. The worst conditions were found in western Montgomery, Prince George's and Charles counties. Two-thirds of the state was experiencing severe to extreme drought. 

Streamflow data also looks better, for now, but flows are likely to subside quickly after the showers quit. This rain has surely helped to ease the situation. But the drought is not over.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Who remembers The Endless Summer? The movie...  Surfer dudes wandering the world searching for the perfect wave? Well, that's what we're having - the Endless Summer of 2007. Last night's low temperature at BWI was 66 degrees. That's two degrees warmer than the normal HIGH for this date. And it's the normal low for most of July - the hottest weeks of summer!

I'm looking at the temperature data for October at BWI, and I see only one day - Oct. 14 - that averaged below the long-term average for the date (by one degree). Only two hit the average smack-on. We've had 12 days in October that beat the average temperature for the date - by double digits!

With a little more than a week to go in the month, the airport is averaging 66.5 degrees - that's 9.4 degrees above the 30-year average. And if it holds, it would make this the warmest October on record for Baltimore. Here is the competition:

2007:  66.5 degrees (through Oct. 22)

1941:  65.1 degrees

1947:  64.8 degrees

1949:  64.2 degrees

1881:  63.5 degrees

1931:  63.4 degrees

But the average for the month is not going to stay that high. There's a cold front poised to blow through today and tonight, bringing a good chance for some showers. It's not drought relief, just a quarter-inch or so. That's not even enough to bring the month's total at BWI to an inch.

But the front will cut daytime high temperatures back to the 60s for the balance of the week, but still hanging just above the normals for this time of year. More showers are possible for the weekend. At this point in the game, we should be happy to get moisture from the air, even on weekends.

The problem, according to the folks I spoke to yesterday for today's story on the drought, is that the soil is very dry, and any showers will quickly be absorbed by the dirt and the plant life, which (thanks to the warm temperatures) is still using water. Very little will make it into the streams, reservoirs and the groundwater. 

Wendy McPherson, the hydrologist in the Baltimore office of the USGS, told me, "I would estimate we need 5 or 6 inches of rainfall a month to get us out of this."  Three to four inches a month is normal. We haven't even had an inch - total - since Sept. 1. 

What farmers are looking for is some sustained rainfall. Buddy Hance, a Calvert County farmer and a deputy secretary of agriculture, said what he needs is "two or three days of steady, soaking rain ... to soften the soil. Two to three days would be wonderful."

In this Endless Summer of 2007. we're still searching for the Perfect Rain. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Those showers last night drew some of the neighborhood kids outside, laughing and squealing as if it were a pinata that had opened up instead of rainclouds. It wasn't much - just 0.16 inch here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. That brought the total for the month here to not quite nine-tenths of an inch. Needless to say we are still very much in need of rain. This drought remains in place and it's expected to persist at least through January.

Reagan National Airport received its first measurable rain yesterday since Sept. 14 - a 34-day stretch without rain. That broke the old record of 33 days, which ended on Sept. 8, 1995.

Dulles Airport yesterday tied the record of 82 degrees for the date, set in 1963. 

Here are some other readings from the region, for yesterday's showers, and for October to date.

BWI: 0.28 inch  OCT:  0.89 inch

Reagan National:  0.37 inch  OCT:  0.37 inch

Dulles International:  0.32 inch  OCT:  0.35 inch

Here's the forecast for BWI, which shows another chance for some precipitation on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. After that, we'll be looking at much cooler daytime highs, only in the low to mid 60s.

For now, with 11 days to go, this October ranks as the 9th driest on record for Baltimore.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:54 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: By the numbers
        

September 2007 was the eighth warmest on record in the lower 48 states and the fifth warmest globally, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. In its September report, released today, the agency details the climate extremes recorded last month. Among them:

September was warm enough to set 1,000 new high temperature records across the U.S. The average temperature was 2.1 degrees F above the long-term averages for the month.

Thirty-eight of the lower 48 states were warmer than average. None was cooler.

It was the 12th-warmest September on record in Alaska, 2.6 degrees above the 1971-2000 mean. Nome was frost-free from June through September. Dry weather on the North Slope contributed to a 250,000-acre wildfire, the largest ever there.

Drought parched the Southeast. It affected 78 percent of the region, including 25 percent that was in "exceptional" drought, the most severe category. Nationwide, drought spread across 46 percent of the country.

To read the full report, click here.

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Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:47 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The sea ice surrounding the North Pole is expanding again as winter nears, recovering from the new record minimum reached last month at the end of the summer melting season. The map above shows where the 2007 minimum was, compared with the previous record minimum, reached in 2005, and the long-term (1979-2000) average. Quite a dramatic difference. For more, click here.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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If you got measureable rain from those thunderstorms last night, count yourself lucky. Instruments at BWI caught only a trace, so the dry streak that began Sept. 16 at the city's station of record continues today into its 25th consecutive day. The record for Baltimore is 32 days, ending Oct. 31, 1963.

Jim Decarufel, out at the NWS Sterling forecast office said there's a low-pressure system spinning our way tomorrow out of the Great lakes. "That might have a few sprinkles here and there," he said, "but other than that, continued dry ... The worst thing is, there aren't even any tropical storms out there, and we're gonna need a couple of them to do anything beneficial."

I figured the airport would pick up a little bit of rain from last night's storms. We had 0.33 inch out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. Jim said a private observer in Damascus, in Howard County, recorded just over a half-inch. But amounts elsewhere were paltry: 0.08 inch in Emmittsburg; 0.02 inch in Riveira Beach; a trace in Oxon Hill. We had 0.07 inch here at Calvert & Centre.

At BWI, it has taken us since Aug. 22 - that's 49 days - to accumulate just one inch of rain. 

"It's not good," Jim said.

Here are some other readings from around the region on last night's storm. And these.

We're now closing in on a 10-inch rainfall deficit for the year. Many streams are near record lows. Groundwater levels are falling. Here's some realtime data from a monitoring well in Granite, Baltimore County.

There's only a "slight" chance for some showers in the next few days as we work through another frontal passage and welcome some cooler air. After Friday, the forecast is clear and sunny well into next week. On Thursday of next week, if there's no measureable rain at BWI by then, we'll break the all-time rainless record.

BTW, Tuesday's record high of 94 degrees at Dulles International Airport broke not only the high-temperature record for an Oct. 9, but also the all-time record for any date in October.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:52 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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There's no data yet from BWI, but the thunderstorm passing over the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville this evening has already dropped almost a third of an inch of rain in barely 15 minutes. Rain rates topped 3 inches an hour for a brief while. It's the first rain out here since Sept. 27 (0.2 inch), and the biggest since 1.37 inches fell here on Aug. 19.

Assuming BWI got a piece of theaction, it would end the official rainless streak for Baltimore at 24 consecutive days. The record is 32 days, ending Oct. 31, 1963.

You can check here for any precipitation at BWI. Here's the radar loop.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:26 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Tuesday's high of 94 degrees shattered records all across the region Tuesday afternoon. It also marked the first time that Baltimore has recorded more than two days in the 90s in October since 1941 (when there were 5).

The high of 94 degrees at BWI broke the record for the date - 91 degrees - set back in 1939. Reagan National Airport also reported a high of 94, breaking the 90 degree record for the same date in 1939. Out in the Virginia countryside, the high at Dulles International  - also 94 degrees - also broke the record for the date - 87 degrees - set there in 1990.

It was an extraordinary October day, 11 degrees hotter at BWI than it was on the Fourth of July, and the 45th day in the 90s this year. The 67-degree overnight low this morning at BWI was only three degrees below the long-term average maximum for the date - 70 degrees.

The record high minimum temperature for the date - the warmest overnight low on record for Baltimore on an Oct. 9 - was 71 degrees, set in 1959. We missed breaking that record by just 4 degrees.

But that should be it for the heat this week, and quite possibly for the year. The cold front pushes through tonight - maybe with a passing thunderstorm or shower. Wednesday will be noticeably cooler, and we're looking for real October weather for the rest of the week, right through the weekend. Here's the forecast. Here's the radar, showing the front. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:39 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

The temperature at BWI reached 90 degrees in the last hour, busting the record of 88 degrees for an Oct. 8 in Baltimore, set back in 1931.

UPDATE: The official high for BWI today was 91 degrees.

EARLIER: That high mark for today is still cooler than Sunday's high of 92 at the airport, which failed to break the 96-degree record for that date. But it was the 44th day this year with a high of 90 degrees or higher, five more than last year. 

Sunday's high was the first 90-plus day in October at BWI since the 1959, according to Steve Rogowski at the NWS Sterling forecast office. And with today's high, we mark the first time since 1947 that Baltimore has experienced two October days in the 90s.

Anyway, it's 90 degrees here at Calvert & Centre streets, 92 at the Science Center, 85 at Reagan National and 88 at Dulles International.

UPDATE: New records were set today at Reagan (91), and Dulles (92). The day's high at the Science Center was 92. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:11 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

With the clouds burning off early around Baltimore today, we may have a shot at beating the record-high temperature for an Oct. 8 in Baltimore. The record is a relatively easy one for the first half of October, just 88 degrees, set in downtown Baltimore in 1931. The forecast calls for mostly sunny skies after the fog burns off, and a high of 85 degrees. I'm betting we'll bust the record.

The 88-degree mark is, after all, the coolest record high for Baltimore in the first (nearly) two weeks of October. On the other  hand, it's still a full 18 degrees above the long-term average high for this time of year.

The early-autumn heat won't last much longer. We'll have one more hot day on Tuesday - pushing 90 again. But the high-pressure system will finally move off the coast and a cold front now in the Midwest will move across the state late Tuesday. That may bring us a bit of rain, but not much. There's a 50 percent of thunderstorms on Tuesday night. It's now been 23 days since the last measureable rain at BWI. The record is 32.

Behind the front they're looking for cooler weather on Wednesday, with highs around 80 degrees - still 10 degrees above normal. But that's it. From Thursday well into next week we're looking for highs in the 60s, and lows in the 40s. That's a few degrees below normal, for a change. We haven't had a below-average-temperature day at BWI since Sept. 20.

For the record, tomorrow is the 104th anniversary of the earliest snowfall on record for Baltimore - a trace on Oct. 8, 1903. Guess we won't break THAT record this year.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:40 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Man, that was one hot October day. The high at BWI-Marshall this afternoon was 92 degrees, and it felt more like August than October. Even so, it wasn't a record.

The hottest Oct. 7 on record for Baltimore was 96 degrees, set downtown on this date in 1941. Had we experienced today's weather on Oct. 1, 2, 8, 9 or any other date after the 11th, we would have set a new record. Just not today. It was a high mark to match.

There weren't any records set today in Washington or out at Dulles International, either. But Friday's high of 88 degrees at Dulles did set a new record, besting the 87-degree high there back on Oct. 5, 1967. It was 93 today at the Maryland Science Center on the Inner Harbor.

We'll have a couple more days in the 80s this week, but after a cold front passes on Wednesday (with a slight chance for some badly needed rain), we'll be looking at much cooler, more seasonable days in the 60s, with lows in the 40s. Here's the forecast.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

What a beautiful sound that was - the patter and splash of rain, the peals of thunder. Too bad last night's storms didn't have more of an impact on the region's rain totals for the month, which will now end for Baltimore as the fourth-driest September on record.

The rain gauge here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville stopped at 0.18 inch after last night's rain. For the month, the total is a mere 0.53 inch.

Out at BWI, where the numbers really count, there was just a trace of rain. That means the month's total will likely halt at 0.35 inch. The totals for last night's storm were a bit better north and west of BWI, but not very impressive:

Inner Harbor:  0.47 inch

Frederick:  0.29 inch

Reagan National:  Trace

Dulles International:  0.59 inch

York (PA) Airport: 0.08 inch

Here's the NWS daily rainfall map, which can be a bit tricky to decipher. Be patient. Hit the "enlarge" arrow button to blow it up, and you'll figure it out.

There's still a chance for a shower this morning, but not much of one. And the forecast for the next week looks beautiful, but dry. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

You sure can't complain about the weather this month. It's been beautiful in Baltimore. A little morning fog, maybe. And those clouds off the Atlantic slipped across much of the region yesterday and grayed things up a bit. But on the whole it's been a spectacular end to a very warm and dry summer.

The only complaint you could make would be about the continuing lack of rainfall. BWI has recorded just 0.35 inch of precipitation in September. That's more than 2 inches below normal for the month so far. And there's not much in the forecast, either, at least not until the middle of next week. And even that's not promising very much.

We still have 10 days to go, of course. And there's always the possibility that a tropical system will send a few showers our way. But here's how our rainfall stacks up so far against other very dry Septembers:

1884:  0.09 inch

1967:  0.21 inch

1906:  0.32 inch

2007:  0.35 inch*

1930:  0.37 inch

1970:  0.46 inch

1941:  0.50 inch

* Through 9/20

And, now that the meteorological summer and is over (and the calendar summer ends on Sunday morning) here is the Summer 2007 issue of the Sterling Reporter, the quarterly newsletter from the NWS Sterling Forecast Office. It has a nifty map of the Harford County tornado damage, and a few features on the forecasters we quote from time to time. Nice to put a face to a name.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:05 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

Now THIS feels like fall. It was 42 degrees this morning out here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. The low at BWI was 44 degrees, the coldest morning since May 22. That approached the record for the date, but fell short. The coldest Sept. 16 on record was in 1873, when the mercury stood at 41 degrees in Baltimore.

Night shift forecasters out at Sterling were fretting about whether to post a frost advisory for far northern and western suburbs tonight. Mighty early in the season for that. Check back later today to see what the day shift decides.

Here are some other early-morning readings around the region:

Inner Harbor:  55 degrees

York Airport:  38 degrees

Cumberland:  39 degrees

Morgantown, W. Va.:  39 degrees

Washington-Reagan Arpt.:  51 degrees

Dulles International:  43 degrees

The weather for the week ahead looks fabulous if you don't care about our lack of rain. Clear skies and highs in the 70s or low 80s, with cool nights, right into next weekend as high pressure settles in for a long stay. Expect a slow warming trend by mid-week. But still no need for the AC, and no need for heat. So open the windows, bank those degree-days and enjoy.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
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The folks out at Sterling have run the numbers on the Summer of 2007. It was a record-breaker at Dulles International Airport, where the records only go back to 1963. But it was less remarkable for Baltimore, with 135 years of data for comparison.

At Dulles, the period from June 1 through Aug. 31 was the warmest on record, and the third driest. If you add in the month of May, it was the driest four-month period in the airport's history.

Here in Baltimore, the three-month summer period was the 48th warmest in 135 years of record-keeping, and the 24th driest. There were 33 days from June through August with temperatures in the 90s or higher. That compares with an average of just 25. 

Here's the full report.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers