Read it and weep:

"THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY
TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 20 INCHES.

* TIMING...MID-AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING AT THE ONSET TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY
  NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING
  NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

"A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS."

(PHOTO by Jim Dawson, Trappe, Md./ Used with permission)

As we all sweat and struggle to break free of all this snow and ice and resume our normal routines, let's try to remember those who can't get through this alone.

I just received this reminder from a reader. She asked me not to use her name or to mention the jurisdiction where she works because it's not an official statement. Just a heartfelt one:

"Please mention somewhere for folks to look out for any neighbors, friends or relatives that are elderly or disabled or both. We at the Emergency Operations Center are taking hundreds and hundreds of phone calls from elderly and/or disabled people who are looking for someone to just shovel off their front steps or clean off their cars so that they can get out.

"We have very limited resources - right now it's up to volunteers with four-wheel drive vehicles to get some dialysis patients to the doctors. Or for medical emergencies.

"We have no volunteers to speak of to clean off cars and shovel walks. If everyone who is able-bodied helped one person who isn't , most folks would be OK."

(SUN PHOTO/Barbara Haddock Taylor)

The new Watch says there is a "potential" for 8 or more inches of snow, and "a good likelihood of snow in excess of 10 inches." Previously, the Watch called for 5 inches or more.

The Watch is in effect from mid- to late-afternoon Tuesday until Wednesday evening.

The update brings the weather service more closely in line with other forecasters in the area, who have been talking about a 10 or 12-inch storm, or as much as 20 inches, for a couple of days. 

UPDATE, Noon: The NWS has just updated their Winter Storm Watch. You won't like it:

"ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS
 A GOOD LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES."

Earlier post resumes below:

But after the 21-inch storm in December, and the 24-inch (maybe) storm last weekend, 5 to 10 inches just doesn't seem to pack the panic value it might have, say, last year. Am I wrong?

Anyway, the National Weather Service is putting the storm potential at 5 inches or more. But that's misleading. It just reflects their belief that the coming storm will meet their criteria for issuing Winter Storm Watches, which begins at 5 inches. So that's the floor for this storm. The watches cover all of Maryland except the southernmost counties.

We are now moving within the 36-hour window for this storm, so the forecasters at Sterling have begun to put out accumulation forecasts. So far, however, that only covers Tuesday before sundown. And even though they expect the snow to start after 2 p.m. in Baltimore, they're only predicting "less than one inch" for that time period. Sound familiar? That's about how the last storm began. The snow started late morning, and snowed until sunset without much accumulation.

We should get the Tuesday night and Wednesday accumulation predictions from Sterling later today.

In the meantime, other forecasters are all over this new storm. Mr. Foot and his stable of student prognosticators, who have done extremely well this season, are looking for 5 inches in Washington, and 10 inches in Baltimore.

AccuWeather.com has a very tight wedge on its map, where Central Maryland appears to be looking at 3 to 6 inches, with more (6 to 12) in the extreme northeastern corner of the state.

The key to this storm appears to be exactly where the coastal low decides to form and intensify after twin lows now crossing the continent out of the Southwest and the Northwest finally merge. The farther south that happens - say, off the Carolinas - the more time the storm will have to gather strength and moisture off the Atlantic and drop it on us. If all that happens off Delmarva, we'll get less snow as the storm drifts northeastward to pound New York and New England. We'll see.

NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md. is saying this morning it believes the coastal low will begin to form over the Carolinas, but that the worst of the snow would fall to our north and east. Here's a bit of their discussion:

"Expect the potential for blizzard conditions during Wednesday north and west of the intense surface low ... with a potential for one foot plus amounts from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey to parts of southern New England."

Finally, here's Eric the Red, a professional meteorologist from Baltimore, who sounds worried:

"The bullseye is once again centered over I-95 corridor and points east. [Precipitation] totals will also be less south of DC, but the immediate DC burbs are under the gun again..." 

He is also forecasting strong winds - higher than during the last storm, which fueled blizzard conditions in parts of the state:

"... [W]hat we just experienced is nothing compared to what is coming in terms of wind... Wednesday will feature extremely dangerous conditions if these models are right... If I had to paint a guess ... a 10-20" snowstorm is on the menu, with perhaps a bit less west of Frederick and south of DC. But the wind will be a major major issue with this one."

The good news appears to be that yet another Gulf Coast low that's expected to develop later this week will stay down there, leaving us in sunny but colder-than average weather through the weekend.

"Near-blizzard conditions" were recorded at several other locations in the region, including Annapolis, meaning they had blizzard conditions, but not for the required three-hour minimum.

Here's the statement, issued Sunday afternoon by the National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling, Va.:

"PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN ST. MARY`S AND
ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTIES IN MARYLAND ON SATURDAY 6 FEBRUARY 2010...

"THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD IS A WINTER
STORM WHICH PRODUCES THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS FOR 3 HOURS OR LONGER:
SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS 35 MPH OR GREATER...AND FALLING
AND/OR BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY FREQUENTLY TO LESS THAN
ONE-QUARTER MILE ON A WIDESPREAD OR LOCAL BASIS.

"PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS SHOW THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WERE
RECORDED AT TWO OBSERVATION LOCATIONS IN THE REGION ON SATURDAY
6 FEBRUARY 2010.  THE FIRST OCCURRENCE WAS AT BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
INTERNATIONAL THURGOOD MARSHALL AIRPORT IN ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY
MD...FROM APPROXIMATELY 12 MIDNIGHT TO 5:00 AM EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.  DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WIND GUSTS WERE RECORDED TO
37 MPH WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE IN HEAVY SNOW.

"THE SECOND LOCATION WAS AT THE PATUXENT RIVER NAVAL AIR STATION IN
ST. MARY`S COUNTY MD...FROM APPROXIMATELY 12 NOON TO 4:00 PM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WIND GUSTS WERE
RECORDED TO 41 MPH WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO ONE-EIGHTH MILE IN
HEAVY SNOW.

"NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WHICH MET THE COUPLED VISIBILITY AND WIND
CRITERIA THAT OCCURRED OCCASIONALLY DURING THE STORM...BUT FELL
BELOW THE 3 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE HOUR CONSTRAINT OF THE FORMAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DEFINITION OF A BLIZZARD...WERE OBSERVED IN
ANNAPOLIS MD...RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL AIRPORT...DULLES
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND ANDREWS AIR FORCE BASE IN PRINCE
GEORGES COUNTY MD.

"AS WITH ANY MAJOR CLIMATE RECORD ACHIEVEMENT...THESE PRELIMINARY
RECORDS WILL BE QUALITY CONTROLLED BY NOAA`S NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS."

Read it and weep:

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AT THE
  ONSET TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO
  UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TUESDAY BECOMING NORTH-
  NORTHWESTERLY 15 TO 25 MPH WEDNESDAY.

I just got off the phone with Bryan Jackson, NWS meteorologist at Sterling. He says this storm will bring more warm air and mixed precipitation into Southern Maryland Tuesday, but the Baltimore area is expected to receive all snow.

Thankfully, this is not another soggy coastal storm coming north from the Carolinas packing loads of moisture and getting more intense as it approaches.

Instead, this one is coming across the country as two low-pressure systems. It's not going to be as wet as the last one, Jackson said, and it will become a coastal low only after it reaches the Delmarva coast. Its biggest impact is expected to be to our north as it intensifies and moves north from here.

"We're not looking, certainly, at anything as significant as what we just had," he said. "But we are looking at the potential for a Winter-Storm-Watch-criteria snowfall," which is 5 inches or more.

According to the tally from the National Weather Service, we have so far accumulated 60.4 inches of snow since the first flake stuck on Dec. 5, 2009:.

December 2009: 23.2 inches

January 2010:  7.5 inches

February 2010:*  29.7 inches 

That total has eclipsed the No. 2 season and brings us within barely 2 inches of the all-time record. We could easily break that mark when the next storm strikes on Tuesday.

Here's how the seasonal rankings look now:

1. 1995-96:  62.5 inches

2. 2009-10:  60.4 inches*

3. 2002-03:  58.1 inches

4. 1963-64:  51.8 inches

5. 1898-99:  51.1 inches

*Through Feb. 6

On another topic, I've been thinking about the kerfuffle over the official measurements of the snowfall at BWI-Marshall. After a contractor (I believe the NWS "contractor" at BWI is the FAA staff) failed to follow NWS protocol in measuring the storm total, Sterling's meteorologists had to estimate the total accumulation, and picked 24.8 inches. The number is a conservative choice between the 28.6 inches arrived at with hourly measurements, and the 24.7 inches measured after the storm had finished accumulating and became compacted.

They concluded that the Super Bowl Weekend Storm beat the previous record for a two-day storm, which Sterling interprets to be the Feb. 16-17 piece of the four-day Presidents' Day Weekend Storm in 2003. Until yesterday, the NWS Sterling forecast office Website had always rated the 2003 storm as a four-day event that totaled 28.2 inches. Now they consider that a two-day event that totaled 24.4 inches

The new results:

No. 1 Two-day Storm: Super Bowl Weekend Storm 2010:  24.8 inches

No. 2 Two-day Storm: Presidents' Day Weekend Storm 2003: 24.4 inches

Still King of the Mountain: Three-day Knickerbocker Storm, 1922:  26.5 inches

I can understand why meteorologists fuss over how they should count a four-day storm like the Presidents' Day Weekend Storm in February 2003. That event truly was a combination of at least two separate storms, with some brief period in between with no precipitation.

And I suppose there is something useful to scientists about distinguishing one-day storms from the two-day and three-day variety; although I'm not sure why a 20-hour storm that snows past midnight should be treated as a two-day storm, while a 20-hour storm that occurs within one calendar date is classified as a one-day storm.

And I have no clue why this is an issue now, years after the Sterling folks posted their table of the Top Twenty Snowstorms in Baltimore, (also below) listing the four-day, two-storm, 2003 blowout as No. 1. (The table has now disappeared from the Sterling Web site.)

But in the end, it seems to me that what matters to the public is how much snow has been dumped on them, no matter how many days it took for it to end. For all of us who had to wait for the snow to stop back in 2003, and then dig out, the storm was a single event. And the snow we had to remove was 28 inches deep (more or less).

My vote would be to keep the old Top Twenty list, and insert the dear departed Super Bowl Weekend Storm at No. 3, after the Presidents' Day Weekend Storm in 2003, and the Knickerbocker Storm in 1922.

What say you?

(PHOTOS: Top: SUN PHOTO/Roylance-Snowdrift/ Bottom: UCAR satellite image of mid-Atlantic snow, shot Sunday 2/7/10)

1	28.2 inches ... Feb. 15-18, 2003	11	14.1 inches ... Dec. 11-12, 1960
2	26.5 inches  ... Jan. 27-29, 1922	12	13.1  inches ... Feb. 11-12, 2006
3	22.8 inches ... Feb. 11, 1983	13	13.0  inches ... Mar. 5-7, 1962
4	22.5 inches ... Jan. 7-8, 1996	14	12.3 inches ... Jan. 22, 1987
5	22.0 inches ... Mar. 29-30, 1942	15	12.1 inches ... Jan. 30-31, 1966
6	21.4 inches ... Feb. 11-14, 1899	16	12.0 inches ... Feb. 16-18, 1900
7	20.0 inches ... Feb. 18-19, 1979	17	11.9 inches ... Mar. 13-14, 1993
8	16.0 inches ... Mar. 15-18, 1892	18	11.7 inches ... Feb. 5-8, 1899
9	15.5 inches ... Feb. 15, 1958	19	11.5 inches ... Dec. 17-18, 1932
10	14.9 inches ... Jan. 25, 2000	20	11.5 inches ... Mar. 21-22, 1964

Yes, my weary diggers, the National Weather Service is advising us of "accumulating wintry precipitation," beginning sometime after noon on Tuesday. The chances, for now, are rated at 60 percent for Tuesday, rising to 70 percent Tuesday night and fading to 30 percent Wednesday.

The folks at Sterling, as is their policy, are not yet venturing accumulation totals. Storm tracks and rain lines remain pretty uncertain. But this morning's forecast discussion describes this new storm in a way that sounds a bit like the one that struck here Friday, except not as intense.:

"HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. ...THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THESE SYSTEMS WOULD PHASE AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW STRONG THE COASTAL LOW WILL GET BEFORE MOVING OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

"EITHER WAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THESE SYSTEMS PHASE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

"ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FROM NEAR THE CITIES OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM BECAUSE A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TIMING OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS
PHASING TOGETHER WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR."

Okay, so that's the NWS. Our newest professional contributor, Eric the Red, is thinking the new storm will clock in with something like 4 to 8 inches of new snow. Says he:

"Models are showing a very disturbing trend for Tuesday.  They more or less replay this storm, but with a bit less precipitation.  The latest GFS [a forecast model] as well as last night's Canadian and NOGAPS [more models] show an upper-air low approaching from the west, while a secondary low forms to our south and moves to the Mid-Atlantic coast.  At this early juncture, this kinda has a 4-8" look to it... with the BIG snow headed for New England.

'Some prelim models...

'WRF - Has secondary low forming at the mouth of the Chesapeake and moving slowly up the coast, with liquid equivalent (QPF - which stands for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) of 0.50-1.00"... which if all snow would be a 5-10".  The bulls eye is east of DC.

'RSM - Same idea, but begins to drift the storm back down the coast at the end of its forecast cycle.  QPF is 0.50-1.00 (5-10"), with a bulls eye in northeast MD.

'PSU-Eta - Same idea, but as the energy jumps from the Ohio Valley to the MD coast, the pcp misses us.  We've seen this happen before... so it's not out of the question.  QPF - less than 0.10... with little if any snow.

'Canadian -  Ouch.  Winds up another stem winder off the Delmarva coast, and punds the region with another not-quite-as-bad big hitter... say 8-16".

NOGAPS: a bit farther offshore, but still paints the area with a modest snowfall.

'GFS - The 12z [latest] is not in yet, but last night's 00z run (7 pm w/balloon data) is disturbing... with a strong secondary low forming at the mouth of the Chesapeake and movg slowly northeast.  The GFS' QPF is over an inch for central MD... indicating a Canadian-model-like 8-16"

'Still time to sort all this out, but needless to say, another 1 footer would be a back breaker fer sure.  I'll keep ya posted.  Right now, as I mentioned before, if I had to pick a number... 4-8", with precipitation starting Tues afternoon and lasting into Weds morning."

Mr. Foot's Forecast hasn't gone there yet, but they do seem to be anticipating 4 inches or more. Hope to hear from his team soon.

(SUN PHOTOS/Frank Roylance/Path to my door/Claire Cohn - Thanks!)

"Frank, you may want to help people not kill themselves as I almost did.

"I managed to dig a trench to my car (Columbia, so 30+ inches) and had the great idea to defrost it. My satellite radio, unlike my satellite TV, was working so I sat in it while it was running.

"I started seeing that distortion effect INSIDE THE CAR and realized carbon monoxide was coming in the car.

"Someone, I guarantee, will sit in their car cave while it defrosts and accidentally asphyxiate."

Remember, the snow piled around your car can trap carbon monoxide coming from the exhaust. It can quickly incapacitate you before you realize what's happening. Then it will kill you. Clear snow from the exhaust pipe and leave the engine off until the car is ready to roll.

On top of that, he says, it's not yet clear how they will measure the four-day storm in February 2003 that currently holds title as the biggest on record for Baltimore.

One thing Lee says he is confident about is that this storm did beat the 2003 storm, by at least a fraction of an inch.

Here's the deal:

The contractor paid to make snow measurements at BWI for the weather service (the NWS has none of its own personnel there) evidently failed to follow NWS protocols in measuring the snow.

Those rules say the observer must allow snow to fall on an official "snow board" for six hours, then wipe it clear and repeat the procedure every six hours until the snow ends.

The technique is designed to split the difference between measuring all the snow at once (which means the snow will have compacted some from its own the weight), or measuring it more frequently, and perhaps exaggerating the snow depth by eliminating most compaction.

The contractor measured every hour on the hour and added it up. That produced a total of 28.6 inches. He also took a "snow depth" reading, meaning that he measured all the snow at once, after it stopped falling. Because of compaction, that came to 24.7 inches.

"We don't have an observation for every six hours," Lee said.

Sterling is now consulting with headquarters, and with climatologists, to figure out how to make a reasonable estimate of what a six-hour measurement might have been. "We'll have to come up with an official estimate somewhere between the 24.7 inch snow depth and 28.6," Lee said.

But then what should they compare it to? The No. 1 snowstorm currently on Sterling's Top Twenty list is the Feb. 15-18 storm in 2003. The total on the Sterling Web page for that storm was 28.2 inches.

Did the storm that buried my car (left) beat that? It's not clear.

The 28.2-inch measurement on the Sterling Web site notwithstanding, the National Climatic Data Center doesn't recognize four-day storms, Lee said. Besides, the 2003 storm was actually two storms. His office is now focusing on two days of that storm for the official record challenge. That's the total of 24.4 inches that fell on Feb. 16 and 17, 2003.

If that's upheld by the NCDC, both measurements from BWI for the Super Bowl Weekend Storm just ended would beat that mark, so whatever intermediate figure they eventually agree on would as well. And that would make this the biggest two-day storm on record for Baltimore.

Lee like its chances. "I'm feeling pretty comfortable saying we broke a two-day snowfall record in Baltimore," he said.

UPDATE: Preliminarily, the NWS is estimating the storm's two-day BWI total at 24.8 inches, beating the 2003 storm by 0.4 inch.

In the meantime, Sterling's Top Twenty Snowstorms chart was taken off the Website Saturday afternoon. The site still lists the February 2003 storm as the biggest THREE-day storm on record for the city at 26.8 inches. 

The biggest two-day storm, if downtown measurements are included, was in January 1922 - 26.3 inches. 

Stay tuned.

(SUN PHOTOS/Frank Roylance/The WeatherDeck (top)/My poor car (bottom))

UPDATE: Blizzard Warnings on the Western Shore have been canceled. The sun is shining on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville. The Great Dig has begun.

As the storm departs, cold air out of the northwest will sweep in behind it, dropping overnight temperatures into the teens and single digits Saturday night. That should turn the snow and slush on the ground to hard ice and limit the effectiveness of road salt.

There won't be much relief - or melting - on Sunday or Monday as highs stall near the freezing mark and drop into the teens at night. Worse, there's a chance for more snow on Tuesday.

The official forecast calls for a chance of rain or snow on Tuesday afternoon, followed by a 70 percent chance for snow Tuesday night. That will be followed by a 40 percent chance of more snow Wednesday.

NWS forecasters at Sterling aren't venturing any accumulation totals yet. There's still too much uncertainty about the storm and the precipitation types we can expect. Safe to say it won't rival the snows of the last 24 hours.

And the snow continues to fall. It's snowing hard on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville at noon.

UPDATE at 2:50 p.m.: Snow has stopped on the WeatherDeck.

Here is the latest NWS tally. And here are some early morning CoCoRaHS reports from places not yet mentioned here:

Friendsville, Garrett County:  35.5 inches

New Market, Frederick Co.:  34 inches

Long Green, Baltimore Co.:  20 inches

Taneytown, Carroll:  20 inches

Greensboro, Caroline:  19.3 inches

Pasadena, Anne Arundel:  18 inches

Easton, Talbot:  17 inches

Funkstown, Washington Co.:  15 inches

Colora, Cecil:  13.8 inches

St. Michaels, Talbot:  12.5 inches

Princess Anne, Somerset:  2.1 inches

And the snow is still falling. Another 3 inches and this Super Bowl Weekend Storm will eclipse the No. 2 snowstorm - the 26.5-inch blockbuster on Jan. 27-29, 1922.

Forecasters do not believe the storm will topple the all-time record - the 28.2-inch storm on Feb. 15-18, 2003.

We'll see.

(Fells Point PHOTO by Lindsay Rothstein/Used with permission)