The weather forecast is quite promising for this pass, and the station will appear especially bright, even in badly light-polluted urban settings. It's also a convenient early-evening pass, so sky watchers will have no excuse not to step outside with the kids and get a look at your (and their) tax dollars at play.

The only hitch is that on this pass the ISS will fly into the Earth's shadow and disappear well before reaching the northeast horizon, cutting short our view, which of course depends entirely on sunlight reflecting off the hardware.

Watch for the station as it rises above the southwest horizon at 6:14 p.m. It will appear like a bright star, hustling across the sky. If you see blinking strobes, multiple or colored lights, that's a airplane. Keep looking.

The ISS will pass well above the planet Jupiter, which is now the brightest object in the southern sky. It will reach a maximum elevation of 70 degrees above the southeastern horizon at 6:17 p.m., and soon after that fade quickly away as it enters the Earth's shadow - another brief nighttime for crew aboard the station.

There are currently six crew members aboard the ISS. They include two Americans (one male, one female); two Russians; one Belgian (the first European expedition commander) and one Canadian, all male.

They are currently preparing for the scheduled arrival of the Space Shuttle Atlantis on Nov. 16. The flight, to deliver spare parts to the station, is one of the last six shuttle flights on the NASA manifest before the fleet is retired in 2010. After that, under current plans, the U.S. will have to rely on Russian vehicles to support the station and its crew. 

Note to Bucket Listers: If you have never seen a shuttle launch in person, start planning now to get down to Florida to watch one of these spectacular events before it's too late. TV images of a shuttle launch do not do the experience justice. You can't see that blinding flame, hear the crackling engines, or feel the sound in your chest.

And, with the cameras focused on the shuttle, you lose all sense of the space ship's acceleration and speed as it leaps into the air and disappears from view. You simply can't believe that people willingly ride that monster. Be there.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are getting conflicting predictions from their computer models and other guides. But the guesswork seems to be settling on a storm track into the central Gulf by early next week, with a likely curve toward Florida.

Although there is at least one model forecasting the storm will regain hurricane force, the NHC seems to be holding Ida's redevelopment to tropical storm force for the moment, citing continuing wind shear in the region and cooler waters in the Gulf.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast discussion. Here is the forecast storm track, and here is the view from orbit.

The hard freeze will finally bring the 2009 growing season to a halt in the area, and kill off any tender plants that are still outdoors tonight.

The forecast low for BWI-Marshall Airport - and for much of the surrounding region tonight, is 29 degrees, which would be the lowest reading there since April 13, when the low was also 29. Downtown, the low is likely to be slightly higher, around 33 degrees.

The cold night is brought to us courtesy of high pressure that's been building in from the Ohio Valley. That's bringing clear skies and, as it moves closer tonight, calming winds. And that is the recipe for radiational cooling tonight, which will bleed away much of the solar heating we're able to store up today, and drop temperatures.

The weekend and the early part of next week look like they'll remain mostly sunny during the day, and clear at night. Daytime highs should poke back into the 60s by Sunday.

Then there's this from the NWS:

"HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH CENTER SHOULD KEEP ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
ANY REMNANTS OF [tropical storm] IDA WELL SOUTH OF THE CWFA [forecast area] NEXT WEEK."

The Department of Astronomy in the School of Mathematics and Science will have its big Celestron 14-inch CGE 1400 XLT (sounds impressive, doesn't it?) telescope set up to provide the public with a close-up view of the heavens. One prominent target, I expect, will be the planet Jupiter, which is shining brightly high in the southern sky this month. Here it is in this NASA photo, with four of its moons.

This will be the first in a series of Friday evening observing sessions for the public in Dundalk this fall. Here's when and where and how:

Nov. 6, 7-9 p.m.

Nov. 20, 7-9 p.m.

Dec. 11, 7-9 p.m.

If the skies look iffy, give them a call, 45 minutes before the start of the session, at 410 282-3092 to see if it's still on.

Address: 7200 Sollers Point Road, Dundalk. Turn into CCBC Dundalk from Sollers Point Road and take the first right into the parking lot. Walk to the observatory.

UPDATE: 1 p.m. EST. Ida was downgraded today to a tropical storm.

The storm is producing heavy rains, with 5 to 7 inches likely in most locations, and as much as 20 to 25 inches possible in some spots. Those conditions would produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides.

While there remained some possibility the storm will dissipate while over land, the forecast storm track still has Ida moving into the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, at tropical storm strength, posing some risk for the Gulf Coast of the U.S. 

Here is the latest advisory for Ida. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. 

The new storm, designated Tropical Depression 11, got its act together Tuesday in the southwestern Caribbean, and now threatens the Nicaraguan coast and offshore islands with torrential rains and 35-mph winds. It may well become the season's ninth tropical storm - Ida - later today.

UPDATE: 4 p.m. TD 11 became Tropical Storm Ida this afternoon. Top sustained winds are at 60-mph, with higher gusts. Some further intensification is likely before landfall in Nicaragua. Rainfall as high as 20 or 25 inches are possible in some locations, raising the danger of flooding and mudslides.

Forecasters think the storm will weaken as it goes ashore, and crosses over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. But it is expected to head north, move back over the northwest Caribbean and regain tropical storm strength as it heads into the Gulf of Mexico next week. One computer model even has it reaching hurricane strength.

TD 11 was located this morning about 125 miles east southeast of Bluefields, a former buccaneer hideout on the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. It was moving toward the northwest at about 8 mph.

Here is the latest advisory on TD 11. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.  

"TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S LATE TONIGHT WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A KILLING FROST."

UPDATE: The NWS this afternoon issued a frost advisory for all counties north and west of Baltimore, including northern Baltimore, Carroll, Howard, Frederick, Montgomery and Washington counties:

"CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON DC AND
BALTIMORE...THE CENTRAL VIRGINIA FOOTHILLS AND PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FROST
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

"PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

"A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED."

The forecast low for BWI tonight is 37 degrees, but that drops off quickly to 33 degrees in Westminster, 32 in Shrewsbury, Pa., and in Poolesville, Md.

Thursday night may be even colder, with a low of 35 at BWI, and below freezing well west of the city. There are snow showers in the forecast for Garrett County late Wednesday and Thursday.  

NOTE TO READERS: The barrel's empty. Be famous for a day. Send in your weather or backyard astronomy questions and see them answered on the Page 2 print weather page. Or is it Page 3 now?  Thanks! - FDR 

This year's viewing, assuming the weather cooperates, will be enhanced by the total absence of moonlight; the moon will be "new" that night.

But the best hope for sky watchers is that the people who have learned to forecast these things seem to be in broad agreement that the Earth this year will be passing through the core of some heavy streams of dust left behind by the comet Tempel-Tuttle in past centuries.

If they're right, observers in central and eastern Asia will have the best view, with meteor rates forecast to exceed several hundred per hour as we slip through the dust left by the comet during its passes through the inner solar system in the years 1466 and 1533.

That will occur 12 to 14 hours after the best viewing time for those of us stuck here in eastern North America, according to an article on Space.com. 

Here, in the hours between 3:30 and 5:30 a.m. Nov. 17, the Earth will pass through a separate stream of comet dust, spread by Tempel-Tuttle during its pass through the region in the year 1567. Forecasters anticipate "modest" meteor rates of 25 to 30 per hour. Not spectacular, but a very nice display if they're right.

And if we're clouded out, we'll get another chance early on the 18th. The Leonids are typically active a few days before and after the peak on the 17th and 18th.

The best thing about these meteors, forecasters say, is that many will leave persistent trails as they streak into the atmosphere. A couple dozen of those during a morning's watch would be something to remember.

And in the meantime, if you just can't resist getting out of bed to stand around in the cold at midnight or later, the annual Taurid shower is about to begin. It peaks between the 5th and 12th of November and, while not nearly as numerous as the Leonids, the Taurids can and do produce some spectacular fireballs. 

As with all meteor showers, you'll need clear skies and a dark location far from urban lighting. And if you're successful, be sure to come back here, drop us a comment, and let everyone know where you were, and what you saw. Clear skies! 

(AP Photo/Leonid meteors, Nov. 17, 1998)

For example:

1. What was the iciest winter in recent Baltimore weather history?

2. How many of the deepest snowstorms in Baltimore have occurred since your Weather Blogger moved here from Massachusetts in 1980? Is that my fault?

3. What was the snowiest month in Baltimore history?

4. How long has it been since Baltimore (BWI) experienced sub-zero temperatures? How many times have we dipped below zero since 1960?

5. How many times per winter, on average, does Baltimore get a snowfall of 4 inches or more?

For answers to these questions and more, click here. There's more here. And you can contemplate the role of El Nino in Baltimore winters, here.

(SUN PHOTO/Mark Bugnaski/Ice storm, Baltimore, January 1994)

Rainfall for the month totaled 6.24 inches. That's a surplus of more than 3 inches, and the wettest October since 2005, when Tropical Storm Tammy's remnants drove the total to 9.23 inches.

And if you still feel like it was a cold October in Baltimore, it's probably the first half of the month that's stuck in your weather memory. Fourteen of the first 20 days of the month averaged cooler than the norm. 

The month's low was 34 degrees, on the 20th. The high was 83, on the 9th.

The coldest spell was from Oct. 14 through the 20th, a seemingly endless string of chilly, rainy days with temperatures averaging close to 10 degrees below the seasonal norms. Daytime highs stalled in the 40s to 50 degrees for four days straight. More than 3 inches of rain fell at BWI-Marshall in those same four days.

But we also enjoyed 12 October days of 70-plus temperatures, including one day in the 80s. Seventeen days were rated clear or partly cloudy.

And now November...

Average high temperatures for Baltimore in November slide from 61 degrees on the 1st to 51 degrees on the 30th. The average lows dip from 38 degrees to 31 degrees. The records run from 86 degrees (on the 1st in 1950), to 12 degrees (on the 30th in 1929).

Snow becomes a serious possibility in November for the first time. Many Baltimoreans will remember the Veteran's Day storm on Nov. 11, 1987, which left an official 6 inches at BWI, but caused much more disruption than the number would suggest.

The deepest November snowfall on record for the city is 8.4 inches, which fell on Nov. 30, 1967. Measurable snow has fallen here on all but eight dates in November.

The oldest weather record still standing for Baltimore in November seems to be the 1.79 inches of rain that fell on Nov. 23, 1879, still the record for that date. Also notable is the cold stretch from Nov. 19-24, 1880, when the maximum daily temperatures stalled near 30 degrees. Four of those high readings are still record low maximums for the dates.  

Forecasters out at Sterling say the problem has been the slow-moving low off the Carolinas, which has kept the clouds clinging to the coastline. The problem now becomes whether that coastal storm will drift azway, and clear our skies, before the next weather disturbance moves in with a weak cold fron on Tuesday.

"Did an update to try to better depict the cloudy versus clear area. At the rate the cloud cover seems to be waning, another may be needed shortly to paint a more optimistic picture," the weather folks said in their Monday morning discussion.

The good news is that none of the forecasts include more rain for our area, although some places in the mountains could see some showers Tuesday morning, and maybe some snow showers by Thursday morning as temperatures there sink into the 20s. Our week looks generally sunny after today, with highs at BWI in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

The weather news headline for us - aside from those promises of sunshine - may be the Tuesday-into-Wednesday-morning forecast for lows near the freezing mark. That would be the coldest reading of the season so far, and could put an end to the growing season for the northern and western Baltimore suburbs. The city low forecast for Wednesday morning is around 40 degrees.

Finally, the full Hunter's Moon (or, if you prefer, the Frosty Moon or the Beaver Moon) rises over Baltimore tonight beginning at 4:41 p.m. EST. With any luck, the clouds will be gone.

So the sun should be coming out shortly. Here (left) is the satellite view of the region, taken around noon Sunday.

You can see the clear skies out to our west. And here's the Northeast radar loop.

Forecasters say the week ahead looks cool, but sunny. 

Hagerstown is already under fair skies.

Hang in there.

Actually, all three reservoirs - Prettyboy, Liberty and Loch Raven - runneth over in the wake of surplus rainfall in the region for five of the last seven months. Here's the straight dope, right from the Department of Public Works:

Liberty: Crest elevation: 420 feet above mean sea level. Current elevation: 420.31 feet. Capacity - 36.8 billion gallons. Available: 36.8 billion gallons

Prettyboy: Crest elevation: 520 feet. Current elevation: 520.34 feet. Capacity - 17.85 billion gallons. Available: 17.85 billion gallons.

Loch Raven: Crest elevation: 240 feet. Current elevation: 240.94 feet. Capacity: 21.2 billion gallons. Available: 21.2 billion gallons.

Total system: Capacity: 75.85 billion gallons. Available: 75.85 billion gallons.

The airport has recorded 6.21 inches of rain so far in October, almost double the long-term average of 3.16 inches. It's tied for the 13th-wettest October since record-keeping began in 1871. And it's the fifth-wettest October for Baltimore since the station of record moved to Friendship Airport (now BWI-Marshall) in 1950.

And there's a good chance, with more rain Saturday, that October 2009 could leap even higher on the chart. Another inch would make it the fifth-wettest October here since 1871. Here are the rankings for Octobers since 1950:

2005: 9.23 inches

1976: 8.09 inches

1971:  6.88 inches

1995:  6.24 inches

2009: 6.21 inches

(SUN PHOTO/Linda Coan/Loch Raven Reservoir, full, August 1999).

The deepest Baltimore snowstorm ever recorded in October struck on this date in 1925, killing at least one person and blinding the railbirds at Laurel Park through all seven races.

The storm dropped 1 to 3 inches of snow across the region, with an official 2.5 inches in Baltimore. That remains the deepest October snowfall on record for the city.

The storm was born in the Gulf of Mexico and intensified as it spun up the east coast. The coastal low left snow on the ground from Virginia to southern New England. 

"Below-zero weather was reported at several places in the Middle West, where all October records for seventy years were shattered," The Sun said. "West Virginia and Eastern Ohio experienced almost blizzard weather and a considerable fall of snow. Heavy damage to late crops was reported in most sections of the Middle West and lakes Region."

In Baltimore, the snow began falling around 1 p.m. and continued into the evening, even as surface temperatures remained above freezing. The previous day's high temperature of 46 degrees remains the coolest high temperature on record for an Oct. 29 in Baltimore.

George Holritter, a 70-year-old Baltimore scissors grinder, was walking in snow on Calverton Road, near Frederick Avenue, when he was struck by a coal truck and killed instantly. The driver "told the police that snow on his windshield prevented him from seeing the man in time to avoid the accident," The Sun reported.

Elsewhere in the city, Mrs. Annie Weinlich, 76, of the 700 block of West Cross St., slipped and fell in the slush and snow on South Hanover Street and broke her leg. She was taken to South Baltimore General Hospital.

Down at Laurel Park, The Sun's racing reporter described a "blinding snowstorm which made it impossible to distinguish colors."

"Despite the fact that all the horses looked alike, whether they were finishing, starting, rounding around the first or lower bend, or going down the backstretch, their admirers cheered for their favorites anyway. Many didn't even know the winners until the official numbers were posted," The Sun said.

(Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club, Jan. 5, 2003)

This is the first October day in forty-nine years on which Marylanders found snow on the ground and ice over the milk bottles when they arose, says James H. Spencer, forecaster.

There was ice on the milk bottle on his porch, where his thermometer showed twenty-six degrees before the sun began to warm things up. That is four degrees below the official record of the lowest temperature in the last twenty-four hours.

Mr. Spencer drops into poetry when he isn't working over weather maps. He became poetic today in describing snow-covered lawns, houses and trees glistening under the sun.

He says he never before, in any climate, saw the gorgeous oranges, scarlets, purples and browns of October trees covered with the white mantle of winter.

This October, the Weather Man declares, has been freakish, and the snowstorm of yesterday was the climax of its weirdness ...

"Does all this verify," Mr. Spancer was asked, "the prophesies that this winter is going to be a record-breaker for snows and severe weather?"

"Not at all," he answered. "Nobody is able to guess now what the weather is going to be through the winter. There is no foundation for those stories."

Here's the deal:  There is a high-pressure system centered over Maine at the moment. Highs spin clockwise, so it's sending cool, moist air our way off the Atlantic. There is also a low-pressure system far off the Delmarva coast. Lows spin counterclockwise. So that one is reinforcing the flow off the ocean. That's the "hybrid" part - high and low combining to produce the breeze off the ocean.

So all that cool, moist air is flowing onshore, out of the east, and then running into the eastern slope of the Appalachians. That's the "damming" part. The cool, wet air gets stuck here near the surface, even though the air mass above it is relatively dry. And we're underneath it all, in chilly air, looking up at overcast skies, and occasionally getting drizzle in the face.

When we get cold air damming in winter, that can set us up for a pile of snow if a storm develops to our south and rolls up the coast. But not yet.

The rub this time is that, even as weather systems shift around a bit in the next few days, NWS forecasters say we'll see little but gray clouds, and some drizzle on Friday morning. The drizzle will fade by noon, they say, and we may see some sunshine Saturday afternoon, and highs as toasty as 72 degrees. That will be a nice break for Trick or Treaters, like the weirdos at left.

But that's all in advance of another cold front sometime late on Saturday. And that will bring more clouds and showers overnight until the front passes.

Sunday may start out with showers, but things should clear off later, winding up mostly sunny and cool if the forecast holds up, with a high near 60. That'll be your day to get outside.

November looks like it will start out sunny and dry.