baltimoresun.com

« Snow still a possibility for Saturday into Sunday | Main | WISE satellite one year later »

February 17, 2012

Uncertainty surrounds weekend storm

Forecasters say it's much too early to determine where and how much snow will fall Sunday. But here is the speculation so far.

Update 4:30 p.m. The National Weather Service forecast discussion: 

"SNOWFALL AMOUNT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR THE WASHINGTON DC AND
BALTIMORE AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE ON AREA ROADWAYS SUNDAY...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
WILL FALL. THERE WILL BE A REAL TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT NORTH
OF THE FRONT. WE HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CATEGORICAL
FOR THE METRO AREAS AND INDICATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
BECOMES MORE CLEAR. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING AND PRECIPITATION WILL END SUNDAY
NIGHT. ICY ROADS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE REGION INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING."

Baltimore professional meteorologist Eric the Red is also feeling the uncertainty:

UPDATE 1 p.m.: 

"All the morning models have come in, and they have definitely gone lighter and farther south... except the Canadian, which has gone a bit wetter and a hair farther north.  So, ... 'Think low, Aim lower.'  I'll pull back my forecast amounts... and hope that I'm wrong.
 
North of MD - Nothing.
Northern MD - I'm thinking 1 to 3" may be generous, but I won't pull the plug entirely north of Baltimore.  I would not be at all surprised now if nrn MD ends up with nary a flake as well.  Man I hope I'm wrong.
Baltimore to DC - Here, 3-6" is my new take, and I'm afraid this also could be high.  Again, hope I'm wrong.
South of DC - 4 to 8
"

Previous quote below:

"The first real winter storm of the season is coming, but with serious, serious caveats.  ... Despite taking a very favorable track out of the Gulf to the Carolina Coast, an incredibly tight south-to-north precipitation gradient will set up.  We're talking that within the span of 20 miles or so, you could conceivably go from 6-12" of heavy wet snow to nothing.  Where this sharp gradient sets up is anybody's guess - I sure don't know - but we've got some ideas.  It appears the gradient will set up... yup, right across central Maryland, with northern portions of the state ending up on the light side, while central and southern portions of the state get smacked pretty good. ... This one is tough, and I do not envy the NWS forecasters out at Sterling, Va. on this one who have to issue a forecast for the entire region.  Storm will impact the area Sunday into Sunday night."

 

Posted by Kim Walker at 11:19 AM | | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Comments

I congratulate the local weather broadcasters ,they are being totally honest and not creating a panic.I'm sure this is helpful to the economy because people aren't canceling work or parties on Saturday .If it comes in on Sunday they should have plenty of time to notify us .Good Job ,to all stations .

Post a comment

All comments must be approved by the blog author. Please do not resubmit comments if they do not immediately appear. You are not required to use your full name when posting, but you should use a real e-mail address. Comments may be republished in print, but we will not publish your e-mail address. Our full Terms of Service are available here.

Verification (needed to reduce spam):

About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
-- ADVERTISEMENT --

Sign up for FREE weather alerts*
Get free Baltimore Sun mobile alerts
Sign up for weather text alerts
SKY NOTES WEATHER

Returning user? Update preferences.
Sign up for more Sun text alerts
*Standard message and data rates apply. Click here for Frequently Asked Questions.
Maryland Weather Center


Area Weather Stations
Resources and Sun coverage
• Weather news

• Readers' photos

• Data from the The Sun's weather station

• 2011 stargazers' calendar

• Become a backyard astronomer in five simple steps

• Baltimore Weather Archive
Daily airport weather data for Baltimore from 1948 to today

• National Weather Service:
Sterling Forecast Office

• Capital Weather Gang:
Washington Post weather blog

• CoCoRaHS:
Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network. Local observations by volunteers

• Weather Bug:
Webcams across the state

• National Data Buoy Center:
Weather and ocean data from bay and ocean buoys

• U.S. Drought Monitor:
Weekly maps of drought conditions in the U.S.

• USGS Earthquake Hazards Program:
Real-time data on earthquakes

• Water data:
From the USGS, Maryland

• National Hurricane Center

• Air Now:
Government site for air quality information

• NWS Climate Prediction Center:
Long-term and seasonal forecasts

• U.S. Climate at a Glance:
NOAA interactive site for past climate data, national, state and city

• Clear Sky Clock:
Clear sky alerts for stargazers

• NASA TV:
Watch NASA TV

• Hubblesite:
Home page for Hubble Space Telescope

• Heavens Above:
Everything for the backyard stargazer, tailored to your location

• NASA Eclipse Home Page:
Centuries of eclipse predictions

• Cruise Critic: Hurricane Zone:
Check to see how hurricanes may affect your cruise schedule

• Warming World:
NASA explains the science of climate change with articles, videos, “data visualizations,” and space-based imagery.

• What on Earth:
NASA blog on current research at the space agency.
Most Recent Comments
Blog updates
Recent updates to baltimoresun.com news blogs
 Subscribe to this feed
Charm City Current
Stay connected