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December 8, 2011

More thoughts on the snow that wasn't

I heard from a reader who wondered what Baltimore professional meteorologist Eric the Red thought about yesterday's forecasts missing the mark. Perfect timing because I just heard from him:

"The killer with this event was the fact that the storm had zero wrap-around precip. Instead, there was a very sharp, linear north-south back edge to it ... so despite the fact that the changeover to snow occurred hours earlier than I thought, the pcp also ended hours earlier than I thought.  The net result:  a big swing and a miss. I guess if there's any consolation, it's that if you're gonna get one wrong, it might as well be an event where realistically we were looking at 1 to 2 inches, 3 tops."

Eric added some thoughts for the outlook for the rest of the month: 

"For what it's worth, took a look at some of the upper-air forecast charts, and it does not look good for snow fans for the rest of December.  Instead of a blocking high over the northern Atlantic - like we've had the past 2 winters - we have the exact opposite... a strong low.  With its strong counter clockwise spin, it tends to pull the cold air east out of North America and into northern Europe.  I affectionately call it the North Atlantic Shop Vac. ... So our already-low odds of a white Christmas are even lower.  ... "

Posted by Kim Walker at 2:57 PM | | Comments (1)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Comments

Thanks! Now, is it time for the snow guessing contest yet?

KW: Thanks for the reminder. Coming soon ...

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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