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October 24, 2011

Showery midweek will yield to "fallish" weekend

A pair of cold fronts will punctuate the week for Central Maryland, ushering in a fine day on Tuesday, a rainy couple of days at mid-week, followed by a sunny and cool autumn weekend.

The first frontal system is due through the region Monday afternoon, ending a mostly cloudy dayAutumn in Baltimore with mild temperatures borne on southwest winds. The southerly component of the wind has triggered a Coastal Flood Advisory, but forecasters are expecting the water to rise only a foot or less above tide table predictions for Arundel's shores. 

This evening's cold front is draped south from a low-pressure center moving across Canada. Scattered showers may accompany the front, especially north and west of the urban corridor, forecasters said. 

By this evening, the front will have moved across the Chesapeake, and we'll start to get cooler, drier air moving in from the west-northwest. Lows tonight will sink back to the 40s.

Tuesday looks perfect, with sunny skies and highs in the mid-60s. If you have a mental health day coming, take it.

AccuWeather.comShower chances rise again on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front and an accompanying low-pressure system, especially for the northwest suburbs. The cold front settles in by Thursday morning, with lots of clouds and shower chances rising to 60 percent.

AccuWeather.com is making quite a lot of this event. The NWS is much more ho-hum, at least for Central Maryland. Eric the Red has even ventured the S-word. (See jump, below.)

Once that front moves out, the weather will turn cooler, drier and blustery, as colder Canadian air moves in behind it, forecasters said. High temperatures Friday and through the weekend will stall out in the mid-50s, which is 5 or 10 degrees below the seasonal averages. Lows will drop into the 30s Saturday night into Sunday.

A perfect weekend ahead for a fall walk in the woods. 

(SUN PHOTO: Amy Davis, November 1994)

Here's Eric the Red on the possibility of a snow event late this week:

"Things could get a bit interesting here by the end of the week, although it is a bit early to be thinking snow storm.  But there are enough "oh my"s in the group to at least toss out the idea that cold rain or perhaps some wet snow might be in the offing for the weekend, with lots of time to sort it out.  And for what it's worth, if I'm placing bets, it would be on the "No Snow" side, but this is worth keeping an eye on.  The timing - as it stands now - would be Friday night into Saturday.

"The models are in very good agreement that a cold front will come through on Thursday, with the coldest air of the season settling into the region Friday.  The models then have a storm developing over the Southeast and track it to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday, producing cold rain or wet snow, with snow chances - under this scenario - greatest in the higher terrain north and west of town (Piedmont into the mountains.

"The 'Oh my' camp includes the GFS (US NWS model), ECMWF (European), and Navy NOGAPS.  The Canadian also has a doozie, but it tracks far enough west that it is cold rain.  The outlier is the NAM, which has no southeastern storm, and actually allows us to warm up on Thursday.  Of this group, the ECMWF has by far the biggest bang for the buck, and would support a historic late-autumn snow storm for much of the Northeast.  Actually, the UKMET (run by the good folks in the UK) just came in, and it too goes bonkers.  Hmmm.

"I really was hesitant about sending this out, cos there are so many things working against a snow event in late October, first and foremost that it's late October.  Couple that with an unfavorable NAO (no blocking high over the nrn Atlantic) and no bitter cold air to work with, and it just doesn't seem to add up.  But, every major extended range model forecast from this morning has something either awfully close or right on our front porch, so I wanted to give an early FYI."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:39 AM | | Comments (0)
Categories: Forecasts
        

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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