What does a "60 percent chance of rain" mean?
FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:
John Mitsak, in Baltimore, looks at a weather forecast predicting “a 60 percent chance of rain,” and writes: “I don’t know how to evaluate the 60% chance of rain. Maybe you can shed some light.” I’ll try. The percentages state how frequently in the past, under the same circumstances, it has rained anywhere in the forecast area . Chances from 60 to 70 percent may also be expressed as “likely.” Above 80 percent and rain is “categorical.” Forecasters would say, “Rain this afternoon.”
(SUN PHOTO: Karl Merton Ferron, Sept. 7, 2011)
Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:05 AM | Permalink
| Comments (4)
Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Sky Notes
Categories: From the Sun's print edition, Sky Notes
Comments
I was just talking about this exact same issue over the weekend. How funny.
Posted by: Colleen T. | September 8, 2011 5:24 AM
One of my college profs told us she had lived in rural CT (there is no such place anymore!) and when they started this sort of forecasting in the 1970s, all the farmers thought it was hilarious! I never really knew what it meant, thought it said that in a given area, rain would fall on "X" percent of that area, but no way to say exactly where. But I think your explanation is much better.
Posted by: Larry Esser | September 8, 2011 6:49 AM
One of my college profs told us she had lived in rural CT (there is no such place anymore!) and when they started this sort of forecasting in the 1970s, all the farmers thought it was hilarious! I never really knew what it meant, thought it said that in a given area, rain would fall on "X" percent of that area, but no way to say exactly where. But I think your explanation is much better.
Posted by: Larry Esser | September 8, 2011 7:00 AM
Thanks! I never knew the full explanation for the % either.
Posted by: Heather | September 8, 2011 8:47 AM