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August 29, 2011

Tropical Depression 12 forms in the Atlantic

A new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Forecasters expect it will become Tropical Storm Katia later today, and strengthening to hurricane force by Thursday as it steams to the west-northwest in the mid-Atlantic.

Tropical Depression 12, as it's being called for now, was located this morning about 395 miles south southwest of the Cape Verde Islands - off West Africa - putting it in a class of storms known as Cape Verdean Hurricanes. They are the ones that tend to pose the greatest threat to the East Coast as we move into the peak of the hurricane season. The map above shows where the various forecast models take it in the next few days.

Here's's Henry Margusity on the storm's prospects.

TD12 is moving south of a high-pressure ridge in the mid-Atlantic that will keep it from curving north for a while longer. Forecasters are saying that, while the ridge will weaken some in the coming days, it is expected to restrengthen, "which should result in a continued west-northwest motion..."

Here is the latest advisory on the storm. Here is the forecast discussion. And here is the forecast storm track

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:11 AM | | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes


Frank - that's a great screenshot of the potential tracks for TD-12... can you tell us where that comes from?

FR REPLIES: Jeff Halverson, at UMBC sent it to me. It's from

Frank-Which hurricanes in the past were the same type? Thanks! I enjoy your posts.

FR: You mean Cape Verdean storms? Irene was one. So was Isabel in 2003 and Floyd in 1999. Gloria in 1985. Donna in 1960. Here's Wikipedia article with more.

Frank - Thanks for the source of the track info.

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff

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