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August 27, 2011

Is this all there is?

Maybe it doesn't look so bad to you out there. Maybe you're ready to get out on the road and have a look around, or head for Gramma's house with the kids. Here's meteorologist Eric the Red's take on what's ahead for Maryland as the sun goes down and Irene heads our way:

"The rain and wind we are getting now are nothing compared to what is in store, so don't be lulled into thinking this is it.

"BTW, before I start, it appears that Irene is going to track right up over the coastline.  This is a very bad Irene at 4 p.m. Saturdaytrajectory for the beach towns of MD, DE, and NJ.  The silver lining is Irene did not intensify before making landfall today. 

"However, due to the storm's large size, lack of wind shear (winds aloft buffeting the storm), and a track that takes it in close proximity to water and over low-lying land masses, Irene will be slow to weaken.  AllI can say is thank God this thing didn't deepen the way models had projected.

"The core of the winds and heavy rain will approach from the south this evening, reaching the Baltimore metro area between 7 and 10 pm.  Winds will increase out of the northeast to 40 mph sustained, with higher gusts, and peak during the late-night and early morning hours... (~ 5 am). 

"The center of Irene should be just north of Ocean City, MD by 5 am, sparing that town an untimely peak storm surge (with high tide ~ 7 am).  Rain should cut off rather rapidly after 8 am on Sunday, but the winds will be much slower to diminish.  While the intensity will be less, the winds will finally die down late Sunday afternoon.

"Rain will be heaviest on the Eastern Shore and the counties immediately adjacent to the Chesapeake Bay, where 4" to 8" of rain is likely, with 12" totals possible closer to Irene's center.  Rain amounts will diminsh notably as you head west from Carroll into Frederick County, MD, but showers from Irene will reach well into WV and western MD nevertheless."

By the way, just got a call from BGE's Rob Gould. He says the utility at 6 p.m. had about 13,000 outages, mostly in the southern end of its territory, with 6,000 more already restored. But the night is young. "The storm has yet to really hit us," he said.

Great. Where's my flashlight? 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:42 PM | | Comments (4)
Categories: Hurricanes


Roylance is the best!

I REALLY lucked out with Isabelle - several people where I worked didn't have power for 10-14 days after Isabelle.

At my house, the power flickered a couple of times (didn't even shut the computer down), and then the power flowed, 'steady as she goes.'

Here's hoping that I can get through Irene without losing power!

We lost power here in Owings Mills for about an hour-and-a-half. I was all resigned to being without 'til tomorrow PM, at the earliest, but just as we were getting the generator downstairs, the power kicked back on. So far, still up. Gonna watch a movie while we can!

Just heard from my family in eastern NC again -- trees coming down have been a big problem today, and many people have left damaged houses for the shelter at the local community college (where the wind has peeled roofs off some buildings any way). Besides deceptive calm before the storm which you discuss here, should we be aware of the eye of the storm in Irene's track across Maryland? In an old story being repeated today, some people in Morehead City, NC, thought things were clearing up and posted on the Internet. They were warned that it was just the eye passing over and to stay put.

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff

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