Katia nearly a hurricane; Gulf storm brewing
Tropical Storm Katia is now producing top sustained winds of 70 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center, and it is expected to reach hurricane force tonight - just the second storm this season to become a hurricane.
Meanwhile, another storm is brewing at the west end of the Island of Cuba. That one is expected to strengthen in the Gulf, but forecast models are all over the place in their predictions of where it might strike land.
Katia was located this afternoon 1,285 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It was moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph. Forecasters expect it will stay on that course for the next 48 hours and slow a bit. One of the forecast models has Katia reaching Cat. 3 status by late Sunday or Monday.
The storm is moving along the south side of a large high-pressure system over the Atlantic. When it reaches the southwest side of that clockwise circulation, it is forecast to begin a turn to the northwest and eventually north. Just how close it gets to the East Coast by that time is the big question for Katia. Here are some of the model projections.
Mid-Atlantic residents should also be watching the disturbance cranking up at the west end of Cuba. That storm remains pretty disorganized, but forecasters have raised their estimate of its chances. They now give it a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm in the next 48 hours.
The big question for this one is where it will turn for land. The models are all over the place (see map above). Some take it toward Texas. Others turn it north and east toward the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. If it comes this way we'll likely get another big dose of rain.
The forecast from the National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling, Va., say there's 
The weekly USDA “Weather & Crops” report is in. Irene had an impact on Maryland’s croplands, some good, some bad. The crop reporter said, “Still assessing crop damage from Irene. Corn was mostly affected by winds. There is also a large amount of standing water in fields.” Pasture in “poor” or worse condition fell from 32 percent to 27 percent; corn from 37 to 36 percent, soybeans from 25 to 20 percent. Topsoil rated “short” or “very short” of water fell to 15 percent from 30. 
"High winds and excessive rain caused loss of power, flooding, and tree and limb damage across most of the state. Southern Maryland and the Lower Eastern Shore, however, sustained most of the damage, primarily on drought-stricken corn fields where wind flattened the crop in many places, making it difficult to harvest. The remaining sweet corn was severely blown over and may not be recoverable, but we believe this will impact a small amount as most has been harvested. 
500,000 have been repaired. Some 243,000 customers were still waiting for their lights to come back on.
Chuck Grene
So what's going on here? Are the news media at fault for printing (and broadcasting) strong warnings about the dangers posed by the storm? Are the hurricane forecasters at fault for getting something wrong in their forecasts? Did emergency managers overdo their warnings? 
Is there a good side to a storm like Irene? 
"Hurricane Irene will make its way northward into New England today, producing torrential rains and very windy conditions atop the higher summits. Irene will make landfall along the Connecticut coastline this morning, but will spread bands of heavy rainfall well in advance of its center. The periods of rain will become progressively heavier as the day wears on and Irene's eye comes extremely close to a direct pass over the White Mountains. 
Although city officials and many regular folks worried that Hurricane Irene might deliver the kind of destructive, 8 or 9-foot storm in the Upper Chesapeake we all remember from Tropical Storm Isabel in 2003, a big surge was never in the forecasts for this region. Unless your property is vulnerable to flooding caused by rain, most of the sandbags deployed Saturday probably were wasted.
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trajectory for the beach towns of MD, DE, and NJ. The silver lining is Irene did not intensify before making landfall today. 
emergency supplies in case of prolonged power outages.
in effect. They predict tropical-storm-force winds to begin by early Saturday evening. Plan for sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph, with gusts to 65. 
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storm is still moving due north, at 14 mph, and is now centered 300 miles south of Hatteras.
Hurricane Warnings.
Fortunately, it looks as though the city and other Western Shore communities will see a modest storm surge of just 1 to 3 feet overnight into Sunday, compared with the 8 to 9 feet during Tropical Storm Isabel.
Add to that the saturating rains we've been getting Thursday from an unrelated line of thunderstorms, and we're being set up for serious flooding once the real rain gets here with Irene this weekend.
Most models are predicting that Irene will make landfall in the Outer Banks region - instead of passing offshore as yesterday's forecasts suggested. From there, it would track north and slightly east, following the Delmarva and Jersey beaches before slamming into New York, Long Island and charging on through New England.
afternoon's forecast discussion, "southwesterly shear is forecast to increase, which will likely start weakening process. However, since Irene has such a large and intense circulation, it will probably be rather slow to weaken."
Rain last week gave a boost to 
Maryland's most recent one was just last summer. And there are some very big ones in the history books. So how does Tuesday's quake fit into the picture?
would spare us an Isabel-like storm surge up the Chesapeake Bay.
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They're predicting landfall late Saturday or early Sunday somewhere near the North Carolina/ South Carolina border. It would be the first hurricane landfall on the U.S. mainland since 2008. 
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The National Weather Service regional forecast office in Sterling is predicting highs in the low 80s Monday and Tuesday. In between, overnight lows may dip into the 50s Tuesday morning, and the 60s in the cities. By Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, we could record some lows in the 50s in the urban corridor, too.
northern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti Monday morning. 
Hurricane Warnings have been dropped for Puerto Rico and nearby islands, replaced by Tropical Storm Warnings.
The National Hurricane Center is watching the atmosphere to Irene's north, where high pressure is keeping the storm from curving north into the open Atlantic. Instead, it is being steered west, closer to the U.S. coast.
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They're not talking about the storm 
Tropical Storm Irene. But what has forecasters so interested so soon are the computer models, which all seem to be taking the storm west and then north along paths that would intersect with the U.S. mainland somewhere between the west coast of Florida and the Carolinas. 
disturbances set off scattered showers and storms. The best chances are focused on the period from tonight through Friday.
Weather Blog commenter, BankStreet.
Comets in the news:
It's been absolutely pouring in downtown Baltimore since shortly after 6 p.m. There were no warnings from the weather service. There is almost nothing showing on radar. 
meteorologist at the regional forecast office in Sterling, Va., The bay breeze occurs when sunshine heats the land, causing the air above it to rise. That draws in cooler air from the bay. The bay breeze collides with the rising air over the land. It rises, cools and its moisture condenses, triggering a thunderstorm.
If you want to see a 100 billion of your tax dollars in motion, look to the west at 8:26 p.m. EDT. Watch for a bright, steady, star-like object moving toward the northeast as it flies up the western side of the Appalachians. It will pass through the upward-pointing handle of the Big Dipper at about 8:28 p.m., at which point it will be about 500 miles from an observer in Baltimore.
The first sign of a change in the weather will likely be some increasing cloudiness. As the high that's bringing today's pleasant weather moves off the coast, the wind will shift more to the south, bringing more moisture up from the Atlantic, off the Carolina coast.
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Top sustained winds were estimated at 40 mph, a minimal tropical storm. There are no surf advisories or rip tide warnings at the beaches, so Gert appears to be too weak and too far away to be stirring things up for swimmers. 
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Blame a 
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Low pressure over Northern Quebec and high pressure over the Midwest are combining to draw cool, dry air down from Canada, clearing our air of both heat and humidity. BWI-Marshall Airport could see an overnight low of just 60 degrees tonight. 
Terri Clayman, in Columbia, noticed that the high tide on the Outer Banks was roughly 50 minutes later each day. “We were surprised that there was such a difference in the times. What is the reason?” 
fire in southeast Virginia's Great Dismal Swamp, blown by a south wind into northern Virginia and southern Maryland.
evening with some welcome showers. This time the frontal passage will be dry.
Jo-Ann Orlinsky, in Baltimore, writes: “I have been noticing that during July, the daily records for many days has been 100 degrees or more. I am wondering if there are any days in July where the daily record has not hit 100.” 
FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:
Hot-in-Baltimore Contest update: Baltimore (BWI) recorded 36 days of 90-plus heat through Aug. 5, 2011. The new total surpasses the annual average of 29.4 days, with many weeks to go before the risk of such weather dwindles to zero. 
It’s easy to dismiss the risks of hurricane strikes, especially when three years have passed since the last one (Ike) struck the U.S. But the dangers are there every summer, and they’re real. Consider: Eight of the 10 costliest U.S. hurricanes on record have struck in the past 10 years. The third deadliest – Katrina, with at least 1,500 lives lost – was just six years ago. Of the 30 costliest storms, 16 were no stronger than Category 2 hurricanes at landfall, and four were tropical storms.
That's not a guarantee, he cautioned. "If the magnetic field doesn't cooperate, this thing could be a dud... That happens half the time."
radiation levels aboard manned spacecraft and trigger northern lights in far northern and southern latitudes.
The remnants of Tropical Storm Emily - what's left after her 
weekend and beyond.
It was one of Maryland’s worst natural disasters, claiming 17 lives. But few remember after 40 years. Bruce Sullivan does. A senior forecaster at the National Center for Environmental Prediction, he said a line of severe thunderstorms formed along a stalled front over Baltimore and Harford counties on Sunday afternoon, Aug. 1, 1971. They dumped more than 12 inches of rain in six hours. Rivers and creeks flooded. Most of the dead drowned. Scores more needed rescue. 
"THERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
"This means cooler weather for us, and perhaps some much-needed rain for some folks. The change will start to take place over the weekend, and be in place by early to middle of next week. It will likely still be humid, but daytime highs will be markedly cooler," he said.
The storm's primary threat to the island's people will be heavy rains, forecasters said. Totals of 6 to 12 inches are expected in the Dominican Republic and Haiti today, with some locations in danger of a deluge of up to 20 inches. 
There are 
Don Dobrow, in Baltimore, asks whether this summer, so far, is Baltimore’s hottest. Not yet. Summer 2010 was Baltimore’s hottest. And while last month may have been the city’s hottest July, June 2010 was hotter than June 2011 by more than 3 degrees. 
public.
That would cap the streak at 17 days, including Tuesday, the third-longest consecutive string of 90-degree weather for Baltimore since record-keeping began. In all, July delivered 24 days with 90-plus weather, a 
Jeff Brauner, in Baltimore, understands why the 106-degree reading at BWI on July 22 – the highest ever recorded at the airport – did not constitute a record for Baltimore. That’s because it was 107 degrees downtown on July 10, 1936, before the station of record moved out to the airport in 1950. 
The fifth named storm of the 2011 Atlantic season has formed in the Caribbean Sea near the island of Dominica. The forecast track would carry the storm south of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, then across the Dominican Republic and Haiti by mid-week.
From the Weather Blog’s “
