So where's all the rain?
So I've been sitting here on Calvert Street for days, cranking out posts to relay dire warnings from the weather service about showers and thunderstorms and flash flooding. There have been watches and warnings and ... So where's all the rain?
BWI-Marshall Airport is reporting just 0.38 inch since early Tuesday morning. We've had only 0.13 inch here at The Sun's weather station. It seems like there's been more water lapping over the City Dock in Annapolis than has been falling across the region.
It appears that most of the rain with this stubborn "cutoff low" has been falling to our west, in the mountain counties of Maryland and down in the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia. Accident, in Garrett County reported 1.88 inches by 8 a.m. Wednesday, according to the CoCoRaHS Network.
The Potomac River is expected to crest at Paw Paw at 25.8 feet at 2 p.m. today, forecasters said - just above flood stage. Hancock was headed for 23.5 feet tonight - just below flood stage. Harper's Ferry and Sheperdstown should see peaks tomorrow, with Point of Rocks and Little Falls cresting on Friday.
The National Weather Service is reporting more than 2 inches in parts of Western Maryland, and upwards of 3 and 4 inches of rain down in parts of Virginia and West Virginia. Here's a sampling from both sources:
Winchester, Va.: 3.4 inches
Jones Springs, W.V.: 3.25 inches
Hollymead, Va.: 2.59 inches
Bridgewater, Va.: 2.32 inches
Eldersburg, Carroll Co. Md.: 0.90 inch
Columbia, Howard Co.: 0.75 inch
La Plata, Charles Co.: 0.69 inch
Severn, Arundel: 0.66 inch
Westminster, Carroll Co.: 0.49 inch
Bel Air, Harford Co.: 0.09 inch
That's not to say we've dodged the rain here in Baltimore. NWS forecasters continue to warn there's more coming. Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce heavy rain and flash flooding. Some could be severe, with damaging winds, large hail and even an isolated tornado.
Central Maryland remains under a Coastal Flood Warning as persistent southeasterly winds keep water bottled up in the Chesapeake. The winds, coupled with a full moon, are making for high tides in excess of two feet above normal today.
Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Friday as the sluggish low drifts north from the southern Appalachians into the Ohio Valley.
"The heaviest rainfall is expected late this morning through this afternoon when instability will be at its highest," forecasters said.
The low is forecast to continue pumping loads of Atlantic moisture into the region, keeping us gray and drippy. Whenever solar energy is able to trigger thunderstorms, they are likely to drop heavy rain, with a risk of large hail and and damaging winds.
"This has been one of the most persistent upper lows I've ever experienced here," one forecaster said in this morning's forecast discussion. "But the end will be occurring soon."
By Friday the low will have moved into New Jersey. We'll still feel its effects, but they will be easing. And by Saturday we should see partly sunny skies with highs near 80 degrees.
Are we having fun yet?