Is there a reason the NWS is so far off the model precip totals? They're really sticking to the low end of what I've seen. Are they just playing it conservative due to the seasonal performance thus far? I seem to recall they played this game of "catch up" leading up to last year's big storms. Initially they would post a call for 4"-8", then 6"-10", then in the very late hours we'd finally hear a 12"+ call.

FR: The NWS is routinely more cautious than the commercial forecasters and amateurs. As the source of most of the data used by virtually everyone else, I think they carry a heavier responsibility, and their caution is appropriate. But you're right. The model guidance has been especially erratic this winter, and was again with this storm until last night.

Man, Marty Bass was adamant Monday morning that the area wouldn't see more than an inch of snow. Even this morning, after all of the overnight models showed a more significant storm likely, he still sticks with "maybe an inch" of accumulation. Marty is going to look silly in about 36 hours.

FR: It's going to depend on how you define "the area." Lots of variation in predicted accumulations between, say, Westminster and Annapolis.

i do nothave a clue about the color bar at the top of the map. I understand the snow amount is color coded but why the multible colors??????Balcony ovirp

FR: They obviously don't have 40 colors available, so they have broken the scale down into eight colors. They repeat the sequence with every additional 9 inches. It shouldn't be confusing unless you have a very weird distribution of snow - with places getting 1 inch alongside others with 9. The numbers on the map help. My complaint is that the political boundaries are so hard to see.

Looks like we are back to the regular weather pattern for this area where we are right on the rain / snow line. Remember last year was abnormal.

Seriously? The recents models sans the Euro are showing a pretty good thumping for all including Annapolis.

FR: I guess we'll see just how smart Marty is. The NWS forecast map shows Annapolis in the 1-2 inch range.

I do not thing this is the escalation we saw last year...I think it is like the escalation from the Christmas storm...start low...shoot high...then drop the totals leaving snow lovers everywhere bitterly disappointed!! I have been a Baltimore resident for over 25 years and I will believe when I can shovel it!!

Is Marty Bass even a meteorologist? He's never on the WJZ weather promos.

Okay seriously, even the 12z gfs with the recon data is saying balt/was is going to get hit hard. Why the heck is the nws not even issuing a watch for us? the last 3 runs have 6-12 inches of snow for all of us especially in AA County. Whats going on??

FR: Patience. They may. There's this in their 11 a.m. forecast discussion: "THERE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO CHANGE THERMAL PROFILES FROM ONE SUPPORTING RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. AFTER A LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WILL MAKE HEADLINE ADJUSTMENTS IF NECESSARY."

Thanks for keeping us posted and for the links.

Can I make one suggestion? When you show a shrunken version of the NWS map, can the Sun's web team make it possible to click on the map and open it in a new window? Or else add a clickable caption to the image.

The shrunken version is hard to read, and sometimes it's a little tricky to find the link in the body of the text.

Thanks for considering this, and congrats on the top rating for the blog, it is a great resource.

FR: I always try to provide a link in the text. (It's in the third paragraph.) I'll see if we can find a better solution. Thanks.

When you consider how poor the models have performed this year, it's no surprise that the NWS is being conservative with their storm totals. Once the euro comes out after 1pm, I think they may adjust a few things.

To be honest, though, even the commercial forecasters are being somewhat conservative. HM with only 3-6" through Wednesday evening? That doesn't seem like an HM call.

Regardless of what actually happens, it's fun watching these storms develop.

I won't be surprised to hear that we "dodged the bullet" again, waking up Thursday morning to barely a dusting. I love snow. Bring it on... my bubble was busted on Christmas Day when Harford County Emergency Management called my home with a "Storm Warning" of 5-10" for the area. Busted.

Those NWS snow maps shouldn't be posted. They are automated and misleading. Those numbers are far too low.

I second what ThaiChicken says. Making the image clickable, if there is a larger version available, is pretty much SOP on the interwebs. Welcome to the 21st century! ;-)

Euro (king model) is coming in with same solution. WSW will be up before 1:30. If anywhere north and west of PG County gets less than 2 inches from this storm, I will donate my hair to Marty.

Weather Underground.coms model shows most of the storm pulling off shore. It looks as though any shifting of the storm to the NW, and its possible accumulation totals will increase dramatically. My question is, when a system like this developes a low off the coast, does a storm of ths magnitute usually shift further inland?

WS Watch for southern Balt county now

Why is Cecil county MD always left off the MD map? Are we in our own little world? We are 85 miles from Wash. and 62 miles from Philly, who do we follow?

FR: Maryland has been carved up by four different NWS forecaster centers, none of them located in Maryland. Garrett County is handled by Pittsburgh; Central Maryland by Sterling, Va.; the Upper Shore (including Cecil) by Mt. Holly, NJ (Philly); and the Lower Shore by Wakefield, Va. We pay most attention to Sterling for obvious reasons, but the Sterling maps will often stop at the county line. Write your Congressman.

NWS has extended the WSW to Baltimore City, HoCo, and counties south. It'll be interesting to see if/when they nudge those precip totals upward.

With Torsk and Constellation both headed to drydock on Thursday... this about figures. Cold day for a Harbor cruise.

Precip totals nudged! NWS now calling for 5"+ Annapolis, 6"+ Baltimore metro. Now this is starting to feel like last year's ramp up...

what is the outlook for western md? heavy snow or just a light one?

FR: Garrett is under a similar Watch, but out there the threshhold is 6 inches rather than 5.