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January 26, 2011

Storm Warning expanded, 5 to 10" expected

Just as we began to get comments here from readers who, watching their thermometers climb, have been calculating that the snow storm is over, the National Weather Service has just upped the predicted snow totals to 5-to-10 inches and expanded the Winter Storm Warning to include most of the state.

AccuWeather.comLet us say this one more time. This morning's snow was a prologue. An overture. An appetizer.

The Southern low that is driving this sprawling event is still expected to reach the coast and intensify, dropping temperatures across the region and triggering a new, more intense round of snowfall later this afternoon, and continuing into the night. 

The Winter Storm Warnings now encompass all Maryland counties from Garrett to Prince Georges and Arundel, and the Upper Eastern Shore. They're all calling for 5 to 10 inches of snow before it all ends overnight. Only Southern Maryland and the Lower Shore remain under Winter Weather Advisories (less than 5 inches).

Here's the forecast discussion from Sterling: "THE SECOND WAVE OF THIS STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. UPPER LOW IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA AT THE MOMENT. THUNDER HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THEAccuWeather.com LOW ... INDICATING ENERGY INVOLVED.

"THE UPPER LOW WILL JUMP TO THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION THIS EVNG. THE DYNAMIC COOLING WILL SUPPORT
MAINLY SNOW...EVEN IF SURFACE CONDITIONS MILD. THEREFORE PRECIP SHUD START AS
RAIN DC SOUTHEAST ...BUT CHANGE OVER QUICKLY. EXPECT BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL...

"THE HEAVIER BANDS WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND OVER
THE BAY NEAR MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL END FAIRLY QUICKLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS...AND BY 3-5AM THE LAST PORTION OF THE
BAND WILL BE ENDING OVER THE MD BAY...SLIDING EASTWARD OVER DELMARVA
AND TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND."

So far, the storm has dropped the most snow on the northern counties - especially Harford and Baltimore. Kingsville, in Harford County, reported 4 inches. Here are more totals from the CoCoRaHS Network.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:48 AM | | Comments (20)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

My late father had it right."Son be a weatherman. You can be wrong half the time and still get paid." Seriously you guys have a tough time,thats why predicting the weather 5-10 years out is so funny . Keep up the good/bad work.-Bob

Don't mean to be dense, but is that 5-10 on top of what we already received or 5-10 total including what we got this morning?

FR: Excellent question. I had to call Sterling myself to find out. They say that will be in addition to what's already fallen. Lucky us.

Hey where is Al Gore on this. If CO2 raises temperatures shouldn't he be telling all of us to leave our cars running in the drive so it will warm the planet back up? I mean can we control the weather or not here? I'm disapointed that Mr Global warming is in hibernation. He's the size of bear anyway. He needs to stop eating and leave some food for the rest of us.

Hey Chance,

Did you hibernate last summer ???

Because it was one of the hottest summers Baltimore ever had. I of course was not as ignorant to post at that time that global warming was not a myth as a result.

For the 1,000,000th time its Global Climate change brought on by increasing temperature PLANET WIDE.

Weather patterns will be changing as a result and some of those changes will be catastrophic to our current way of life unless we do something to adjust for them.

Now crawl back in that man cave of yours and put back on your tin foil hat.

Fran In Baltimore

Checking the latest total snow map from Sterling, it looks like the storm track has shifted slightly to the SE?

It got up to about 37 here in northern Carroll County, down to 35 now.

'Though I am an AGW skeptic, I will note to previous posters that we are currently discussing weather, not climate.

To get back to the specific topic--it looks to me like the low is traveling further west than expected. It looks like it is going to go right over the Baltimore metro area. How does that impact the forecast? I would think that we are going to see less cold air, and more rain as a result.

With such complex notions as hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, algorithms and atmospheric motion (among many other severely challenging variables) all rolled into meteorology, it's amazing to me that we can predict the weather as well as we can these days. Most people who take shots at the meteorologists simply do not, or lack the intellectual capacity to, understand how complex a science it is.

Also, CO2 allows for heating and as a result more evaporation and moisture in the atmosphere and thus more storms - even snow storms...

chance, go back to your cave.


Global warming is measured over decades, not on a yearly or seasonal basis. Global warming can also cause extreme weather conditions, very hot or very cold, high or low precipitation. These storms could very well be caused partially by global warming, or they could just be a blip on the screen. So I doubt Mr. Gore is hiding.

My little pet is in agreement with weather forecasters this time. Last week he was not. This week he hid himself his cave and blocked the entrance. That normally means snow is coming. I expected him to be on his branch or in his bush anticipating rain. Ridiculous perhaps, but it's a subtle behavioral pattern. He acts like this even though I'm artificially controlling the temperature and lighting of his habitat.

I'm pleased. Bring on a big snow! I think one is mandatory for each winter. Take the day off work, throw some snowballs, shovel some stuff, and then sit back with a cup of hot chocolate hoping not to deal with this again until next season. I could do without this morning heavy slush start though.

"Global warming" an abject fraud designed to even further separate us from our wealth; our government and the mega-banks (Goldman Sachs, I'm looking at you) cannot wait for the establishment of a full-blown carbon trading market.

Flame away :)

chance --

you make the mistake of equating climate with weather. it being cold or snowy has nothing to do with global climate patterns. don't make comments when you don't appear to know much of any science. i have my own qualms with climate science, but i try to avoid making stupid comments like that. a hot summer does not prove climate change any more than a cold winter proves climate change false.

Regarding Brian's comments on GW, that's why so many people are skeptical. Practically anything can be attributed to GW; extreme cold, extreme heat, drought, torrential rain, blizzards, high number of hurricanes, no hurricanes, etc, and etc. I am not saying Global Warming is a myth or that we should not examine the issue closely, but when GW can seemingly be evidenced by any weather, it tends to make people cynical

I have some skepticism too but can we please stay on task here?

Sleety mix falling in Elkridge at the moment, seems to me to be trending to snow rather quickly.

Ignorance is one thing but refusal to learn is another - weather and climate predictions are not the same and have nothing in common. No one can predict the weather even a few weeks out (get weather conditions exact for Baltimore on a day a month from now.) Climate is trivial for Jan of next year (the winter will be most likely slightly warmer on average for the world.) Try and learn a topic before making statements that demonstrate your ignorance.

It is just starting to snow again at 3 pm here in northern Carroll County.

Sterling just issued another forecast update. It looks like the snow totals (at least for my location) have been tweaked down a tiny bit. 4 more inches.

Predicted storm totals are back down to 4-8 in N balt county now

Notice anything on the map; the heaviest snow band is very similar to the back-to-back blizzards of last winters that socked the DC/Baltimore areas.

YEAH!!!! Fran Smith drank her Koolade today!!!!!!Meanwhile - bundle up.

Baltimore Colt: refreshing to see yet another Einstein confuse weather with climate. It's okay.....just continuing hearing what you want to hear.

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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