Next up ... an ice storm for northern counties
With an ice storm on deck for Tuesday, the National Weather Service has posted a Winter Storm Watch for the northern tier of Maryland counties, from Garrett in the west to Cecil in the east, and including Baltimore City.
The Watch begins late Monday night and continues through WEDNESDAY morning. As much as a quarter-inch of ice could accumulate Tuesday on branches and utility lines, meaning a risk for another round of power outages for a region that only emerged this weekend from the last round.
For the northern counties, the event is forecast to begin late Monday night with snow, sleet and freezing rain as temperatures rise overnight out of the mid-20s. That is expected to change over to all freezing rain Tuesday morning, continuing straight through until early Wednesday, when it will finally become just rain.
"A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS." - NWS
South of those counties - from Montgomery, Howard and Arundel south - the weather service is calling for a confection they're calling "a light wintry mix," including some freezing rain. We may 
see them issue a Winter Weather Advisory later today to cover some "light" ice accumulations. The precipitation would change to rain Tuesday afternoon.
The culprit is another storm system, this one now developing in the Plains. As it approaches, it will throw warmer, wetter air into the region from the southwest, That air will be forced up and over the very cold layer of air now resident east of the mountains - cold air damming.
The precip could begin as snow in the northern counties, but once it starts falling, whatever falls will gradually erode the cold air, changing to sleet and freezing rain. Forecasters give the counties near the Mason-Dixon Line the best chance to see freezing rain persist through the day Tuesday and into Wednesday morning.
The whole mess should pass by Wednesday afternoon. A Wednesday high of 47 degrees will give way behind the passing cold front to a resumption of below-average cold temperatures for the balance of the week, with highs in the low 30s.
Don't you just love winter?
The good news is that this round of bad weather is actually the good side of this storm. Portions of the Central Plains and the Midwest are facing heavy snow, even blizzard conditions, this week as the Groundhog Day storm blows through. Here's AccuWeather.com's take. Punxatawney Phil seems unlikely to see his shadow.
Comments
I love that you fail to mention that if the storm continues to sink south as it has, we could see more snow and ice and less rain. Plus i'm still not 100% convinced that wednesdays highs will jump to 47 and then back to 30the next day. This system is dragging lots of cold air, very similar to the last one that was supposed to bring only ice and rain.
Posted by: paul tupelo | January 31, 2011 10:53 AM
With two cA high pressures systems lurking to the north; the warm air, especially at the surface and mid levels of the atmosphere may not be scoured out so quickly. We may see an extended period of IP/ZR.
Posted by: Marty | January 31, 2011 10:54 AM
Funny how a couple years of major activity, and the constant uncertainty of actual outcomes, is turning everyone into a meteorologist.
So, any chance of the kind of ultra-heinous ice storm that gets talked about for years? Do we need to hit the grocery store for candles?
FR: It hasn't turned me into a meteorologist. I suspect the outcome will depend on where you are. Icier north, rainer south. But, as the emergency manager types keep stressing, it's always advisable to have emergency supplies on hand and to be prepared. Anyone who was without power for two or three days last week will surely have learned that lesson. Right?
Posted by: Tim | January 31, 2011 12:15 PM
Anyone notice that NAOO forecast for central/eastern baltimore County seems to include more Freezing rain than rain, This morning, it seemed to be the oppositie. Is this storm trending closer to us?
Posted by: Garth | January 31, 2011 12:45 PM
Thank you for posting your blog. I really enjoy reading the explanations and compilations of what 'they' say about upcoming storms - all in one place. I can't play videos at work to watch forecasts, and a temperature chart just doesn't cut it. Thanks for the digestable information.
Posted by: Meg | January 31, 2011 12:47 PM
Suddenly I'm having flashbacks to the terrible ice-storms of February 1994.
Posted by: Todd | January 31, 2011 3:32 PM
We lost 7 huge trees last week. In over 25 years in this home, we've never seen anything like it. There are still trees with copious amounts of snow on the branches. With more snow/sleet/weight expected, we could lose more trees, power, roofs, etc. OY VEY!
Posted by: Woodie | January 31, 2011 3:39 PM
Frank, here's something to hype up if Maryland does get hit with this predicted ice storm; DO NOT USE FUEL POWERED GENERATORS ANYWHERE NEAR YOUR HOME.
The fumes from them can produce odorless carbon monoxide gas which has the tragic potential to kill people if generators are used in enclosed spaces like your garage or basement.
Use them in VENTILATED PLACES like OUTSIDE THE HOUSE.
People from the warmer climates of the U.S and Central and South American countries will be considerably vulnerable to misusing generators because they have never experienced prolonged cold weather with prolonged power outages.
Healthy and mobile people should check on their younger and elderly neighbors if they lose power and bring them into warmer homes till they get their power back on.
And don't forget pets and other animals will be effected by possible prolonged power outages too.
Posted by: Mark in Charlotte, NC | January 31, 2011 9:11 PM