Maybe next time ...
Puh... Looks like we got just about what forecasters, at the end, said we would. Maybe that's a relief to most. The roads seem to be in fine shape. But it has to be another disappointment for those Marylanders who love to see a good snowstorm now and then.
Somehow, school kids (and teachers) in the northern counties will get a more leisurely morning out of it. Two-hour school delays are in place from Carroll across to Cecil.
The reports are still coming in, but at 7 a.m., it looks like Bel Air, with 2.3 inches on the ground at daybreak according to the NWS/ Sterling snow map , gets the brass ring. CoCoRaHS tallies put Reisterstown in the lead, with 1.9 inches.
So why are we even bothering with this? Perhaps to make the forecast for next Monday night and Tuesday look more interesting. Models are sending another low across the South, and keeping cold air in place just to the north. Sterling is putting the snow chances at 40 percent. But this morning's discussion also has the possibility it will become a drizzle and freezing drizzle event. Nice.
Anyway, AccuWeather.com (map) is watching the models and urging readers to do the same. As our other prognosticators check in with their guesses later today, we'll add them below.
In the meantime, Here's Eric the Red explaining what went wrong with his forecast:
"Well... once again, I've got some explaining to do. A last-second twist to the forecast left many areas high and dry. The low nudged just a bit farther north... and with that nudge, 2 things happened: 1) Warmer air on the south side of the storm ended up farther north, causing the precip to the south to fall as rain or rain/snow mix. 2) The southern edge of the precip ended up farther north.
"On a continental scale, we're talking an almost inperceptible blip... but on a local scale, we were right on the line, so the implications were large. In north-central and northeast MD, 2" (locally more) fell. I noticed at the Halethorpe train station, maybe a half inch, and by the time I got to DC, nothing."
Here's the overnight storm on radar. And here, on the jump, is Eric the Red's take on next week's storm. In brief: Lots of potential. Lots of uncertainty.
"A major winter storm will likely impact the eastern seaboard early to middle of next week. There are still numerous differences with details, but the overall idea is pretty uniform. Snow, ice, and rain will spread up the East Coast early next week, and the precip could become quite heavy. This whole mess will start late Monday or early Tuesday... and last into Wednesday.
"Details: An upper-air low will drop from the Dakotas into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys over the weekend, while a surface low develops in the Gulf and moves northeast along the coast. Energy from the western low will begin to transfer to the coastal low and cause the coastal low to rapdily intensify.
"This process is where some of the uncertainty lies; if it happens too late, then New England gets whallopped... and we're left once again to ponder what could've been. If it happens too soon, we could end up with ice or rain as a wound-up coastal low throws warm air into the equation
"Or, it could be - like the third bowl of porridge - juuuust right. The other issue will be the exact storm track... Obviously, if it tracks too far offshore, that as they say is that.
"I'll say this: The set up is favorable for a big-time winter storm. Arctic air is blasting into the region now, we'll have a high to our north, lots of energy feeding into the system aloft, plenty of time to tap into Gulf and Atlantic moisture, and a sfc low along the coast.
"If there's something I'm a bit worried about that could hose us... it would be if the coastal low tracks too far inland, which would give us snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain. It's way too early to say if this will indeed be the case. In simple terms, it will boil down to the track of the coastal low and how quickly it intensifies.... impossible to predict at this point."
And, here's how Foot's Forecast analyzed the outcome of their 2-4-inch forecast for last night's storm. Nothing from the students yet on next week's threat:
"We originally projected a general 2-4” and we believe that busted in most areas. Among the factors which affected the outcome:
"1.) There was a lot of dry air ...in place when the snow arrived, so that kept the snow from falling immediately, and that prevented a lot of snow from reaching the ground (we call it "wasted snow.");
"2.) The low pressure was projected to track just south of Central MD and through northern VA. Instead it tracked directly over Central MD. This was not the ideal track for us to get higher amounts, as it shifted the heaviest snow amounts just a mere 100 miles north."
Comments
FR: In your January 19 Next storm may be sloppy repeat 2PM Update, you included an interesting bit of news from Eric the Red about the likelihood that the persistent blocking high from the negative North Atlantic Oscillation was showing signs of breaking down. Perhaps you might do an entry following up on this point, and discussing whether the persistently long pattern that we've been experiencing is unusual; historically, when these persistent features break down, how long before we see another such pattern; what we can expect over the next 12 months if/if not we see a re-emergence of the blocking high; and the part that the NAO plays in our weather patterns here in the mid-Atlantic. Thanks.
Posted by: trebort49 | January 21, 2011 8:10 AM
Has anyone ever heard of the story "Boy who cried wolf" These weekly announcements of epic snowstorms that could be affecting us while they are 5 days out are becoming just that. Just look at what is posted already, one agency says drizzle/freezing drizzle and the other is warning of millions of people to be affected. Sure wish at my job I could get by with no reprocussions when I get everyone hyped up for an event only to be wrong. Just look over at recent posts. One says NWS now predicting 2-4 inches then right above it forecast scaled back 1-3 inches. They cant even settle on something in the same day. What a joke.
FR: The repercussions of low-balling a winter storm forecast and getting it wrong are worse.
Posted by: Steve | January 21, 2011 8:30 AM
Does NWS keep records on how many storm events we get in a winter? My memory may be fuzzy, but it seems like we are getting far more storms this year than years previous. Does anyone know if we are nearing a record on number of storm events?
Posted by: Ben | January 21, 2011 9:02 AM
@Steve
It went from 2-4 inches to about an inch. Now, I don't know about you, but 2-4 inches, in no way shape or form even comes close to resembling an Epic Snowstorm.
Now, I'm disappointed. I'd rather see the 4" every time. But trying to predict such a huge dynamic system is not easy, and I for one would rather be prepared for the "worst" than to be taken by surprise by a storm.
Posted by: David | January 21, 2011 9:29 AM
Have to agree about low-balling being worse. When I was in college in West Virgnia, they predicted 2-3". We got 3 feet in 24 hours instead. I'll take over-predictions every time.
Posted by: mountchuck | January 21, 2011 10:05 AM
We got 3"+ in northeastern Cecil County, before any drifting started. I realize that Baltimore forecast maps usually stop at the Susquehanna, and the Phila maps stop at De. So I'm watching two cities complain about a storm that wasn't, and I'm sitting here between them in no man's land, cleaning 3" of non-snow off my driveway.
Posted by: TheHatchet | January 21, 2011 10:08 AM
How about the blizzard of '96. The night before Channel 11 and 13 were calling for it while Norm Lewis on Channel 2 called for 2 inches.
Posted by: Dan | January 21, 2011 10:44 AM
My favorite memory is wathcing the 11:00 weather with Marty Bass and he said little to no snow. We woke up with a foot and I turned on WJZ early and they were congratualting Marty for calling it correctly. Come to find out, he came back on later in the evening once the snow started and readjusted the forecast. It is an inexact science fo' sho!
FR: Also a very difficult part of the country to forecast in winter.
Posted by: Neal | January 21, 2011 11:09 AM
Anyone relying on Marty Trout for a prediction deserves to be fooled.
Posted by: Bob C | January 21, 2011 11:28 AM
all these near misses make me REALLY want a big snow! I'm always pushing for the higher snow totals, but this year has me frustrated! I'm ready for shoveling and watching the snow during the day while I'm home safe.
Posted by: Rebecca | January 21, 2011 12:37 PM
Once again, the stron La Nina flow across the middle of the country will not allow phasing until the storm reaches NE. In a strong La Nina, the Middle Atlantic would need phasing to occur in the Gulf.
Light mix changing to light snow 1-2" tops. Bank on it.
Posted by: greg shipley | January 21, 2011 12:38 PM
I am reminded of the joke about a man who called his local weather forecaster one afternoon and said, "I'll have you know that I shoveled 13 inches of 'partly cloudy' off my sidewalks this morning."
Forecasting is inexact - we all know that. Trebort, get off your high horse (and learn how to speel, while you're at it). The crazy weather the last few years has to make anyone - especially meteorologists - break out in cold sweats when a major storm approaches. Just roll with it.
FR: A reminder to commenters. The names of commenters here appear BELOW their comments, not above. Please, when you slam someone, be sure you have the right screen name. Thanks.
Posted by: David | January 21, 2011 3:42 PM
Grab your torches and pitchforks! The forecasters are wrong again!
For pity's sake. If they predict nothing, and you end up with a flurry passing your window, it's Armageddon all over again, for "failing to adequately warn the public." If they call for snow, and nothing happens, somehow, that's their fault, too, "for building unnecessary panic."
How on earth do you ever decide to do anything?
Sheesh.
Posted by: Earl | January 21, 2011 7:20 PM
I don't think we're going to get anything significant next week either. Spring is coming early. I'd like to see at least one good big snow storm, but I don't think we're going to get it. If my pet goes to sleep early Monday and actually bothers to try and cover himself up, then I'll get excited for a significant storm. I don't think he stopped brumating a whole month and a half earlier than last year by accident.
FR: For the uninitiated: "Brumation is a term used for the hibernation-like state that cold-blooded animals utilize during very cold weather." - LLLReptile.com
Posted by: BigDragon | January 22, 2011 1:14 AM
When I was growing up in NE Indiana (no, I did NOT walk, barefoot, five miles to school in waist deep snow [did I cover all the usual 'descriptives'? - VBG] - I rode the school bus), the reporters would give out 'snow tomorrow, forecasters are calling for 3-8 inches', and we could get 1" to a foot of snow. We could almost always handle those amounts.
The thing we listened for was the wind forecast - there were a few 'road cuts' through hills that if the wind was strong enough and from the correct direction, we could expect drifts five feet to a couple of places where it could be ten feet or more. Schools were more likely to be closed because of the drifts than the amount of snow we got.
It seemed that the forecasters got the wind predictions much closer to actuality (speed and direction) than the amount of precipitation. Now, it seems the public is DEMANDING absolute accuracy in amount of precipitation, but could not really care about wind speed and/or direction, and it seems the forecasters are responding, at least to some extent.
Posted by: Mike | January 22, 2011 4:15 AM