Forecast scaled back to 1-3 inches
Looks like this will be yet another annoying little snowstorm of just 1 to 3 inches. The storm approaching from the west just doesn't carry very much moisture, forecasters say. And the southern storm is expected to move out to sea without providing much energy or moisture to the game.
The National Weather Service in Sterling, Va. has posted a Winter Weather Advisory , covering the northern tier of counties from Frederick to Carroll, Howard, Baltimore and Harford counties, including the City of Baltimore, and the northern counties of the Eastern Shore.
South of there, the forecast accumulations diminish and the potential impacts on travelers does the same. Little or no accumulation is expected in Southern Maryland or the Lower Eastern Shore. Here's how this morning's forecast discussion from Sterling put it:
"Northern Maryland, Potomac Highlands stand best chance at receiving a couple inches of snow accumulation. Could see southern counties struggling to get an inch out of this. And that's still subject to change. DC right now on the edge..."
The snow is expected to reach the Baltimore area between 10 p.m. and midnight, tapering off around daybreak Friday, with the highest accumulations closer to the Mason-Dixon Line. Could this be another Hereford Zone storm?
As minor as it seems, the snow could still produce slippery walking and driving conditions. Temperatures overnight will be in the upper 20s, and will stay fairly cold on Friday. The forecast high for BWI-Marshall is only 31 degrees. Watch for re-freezing of earlier snow melt. I nearly took a header on some black ice this morning.
Friday night and Saturday will see some of the coldest temperatures so far this winter, with an overnight low near 14 degrees at BWI, and a Saturday high of just 25 degrees - 10 to 15 degrees below the averages for this time of year.
The weekend will remain unusually cold, with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens.
Then, there may be m ore disappointment ahead for snow lovers hoping that next week's storm will redeem all that have come before it this winter. Here, on the jump, is Eric the Red's dispiriting assessment of the various model solutions:
"The ECMWF and NOGAPS remain ominous, with a dual-part system impacting the region on Tuesday (a coastal low and a western upper-air low)... with heavy snow, sleet, and or freezing rain.
"On the other hand, the GFS has really backed off, and has a weak coastal low and not much else... with light snow on Tues.
"The Canadian, which was all down and jiggy with a big storm in yesterday's runs, has totally backed off too... with light snow Monday night into Tuesday.
"From this mess I can't really extract anything terribly confident... just that we'll keep an eye on early to middle of next week for a potential winter storm. Persistence would dictate a miss, but we're due, right?! "