So near, and yet so far
All that excitement about a Christmas weekend snowstorm, and we come home to ... nothing?
Well, as hard as it is for many to believe, it was a very near miss. Less than 50 miles separated Baltimore from significant snow. Here's the accumulation map from the NWS in Sterling. Watch and Warning coordinator Chris Strong is also asking for some feedback on the weather service's policies regarding advance warning on snow accumulations:
"While the Christmas weekend storm of 2010 has largely spared our area from significant snow, it sometimes can be storms like this to examine how the process of informing everyone can be improved. While some storms, such as many of last winter's, can have high confidence several days out, not all do - as was the case for our area this time. As you can see from the map ... the area of 5+ inches of snow (our warning criteria) was just less than 50 miles from the DC/Baltimore section of the I-95 corridor.
"As policy we at NWS Baltimore/Washington:
* Mention the possibility of significant snow in our Hazardous Weather Outlook out to 7 days in advance. [in this case it was being being mentioned 7 days in advance]
* Limit specific accumulation forecasts out to 36 hours in advance. [which helps limit the wild swings that would frequently happen with more extended accumulation forecasts]
"I would like to encourage you to pass on any comments you have on how the process worked (or didn't work) to me directly. While certainly "I would like a more accurate forecast with more lead time" is a goal for all of us, I would like to hear any thoughts on our accumulation policy listed above, or any other constructive criticisms you might have for future events."
Feel free to leave your comments here. They read the MarylandWeather blog in Sterling.
BTW, we had plenty of snow in Erie, Pa. Snowed every day.
Lots of weather folks with regrets today. Here's Eric the Red as the snow faded for Baltimore Sunday morning:
"Well... our first big storm is looking more and more like an egg-in-face moment. I think 8" would be a miracle at this point. 2-4" is more like it in the metro area, perhaps less, with little if any snow farther west. I guess I should've listened to my earlier thought... no high to the north = no big MD snowstorm. The killer for me was the models, most of which avertised a serious winter storm. Given that these things are processing more info in a minute than I can in a week, it's often hard to ignore them. My bad."
Comments
Ok, you guys screwed up. Big Deal. People act like this is June or July!! THIS IS WINTER!! So for those of us who are NOT wussies and actually love the snow (and lots of it) When will be seeing appreciable snow in the DC Baltimore area? This IS winter right???? UGH!!
Posted by: Mark | December 27, 2010 8:09 PM
Sure, it would be great to have 100% accurate forecasts for every part of the listening area. It's just not possible.
All we want is the truth regarding the forecasts. We want the truth? We can handle the truth!
You did exactly what you should have done - there was uncertainty in the models, and you made that clear. Tell us what COULD happen, and tell us about the uncertainty. Then, at least, we can react.
Hopefully we don't run around like screaming idiots and cause a siege at the supermarkets, but that's not your problem.
We were in NJ on Saturday, planning on coming back Sunday afternoon. The uncertainty in the forecasts led us to come home Saturday night. We scoffed when the next morning saw no snow in Baltimore. Until we saw what happened up north.
All you can do is present the models and explain the uncertainty. The forecasters did an excellent job of that. The rest is up to us.
Posted by: zevonista | December 28, 2010 6:59 AM
I understand that there is uncertainty in forecasting...but what caused us to go from a storm forecast on Christmas Eve night of a slight chance of light snow to forecasting a major storm Christmas morning only by Sunday night to have a dusting of snow. The wild swings in the forecast over a short period of time is what is frustrating.
Posted by: Ben | December 28, 2010 10:27 AM
I think folks should try to separate their frustration with not getting "enough" snow from the quality of forecasting... as the latter was not an issue here, in my opinion.
Take a look at that map... Wilmington, DE got 3 inches, and Philadelphia (30 miles away) got a FOOT. With such a distance-sensitive storm (more so than any other in my memory), and the storm jogging a few miles east and west as it advanced up the coast, I can't see any way the forecasters could have done better short of contacting Heaven and asking where He was planning on taking the storm.
Posted by: Larry | December 28, 2010 2:25 PM