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December 16, 2010

Sat. night snow chances edge up to 50 pct.

National Weather Service forecasters have boosted their estimate of our chances for more accumulating snow Saturday night into Sunday. The risk climbed this evening from a "slight" - 20 pct - chance, to 50 percent. Here's a slice of this evening's forecast discussion from NWS Sterling:

"AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS SATURDAY BEFORE APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
AND TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.

"THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF THE SYSTEM HOLDS CLOSER TO
AccuWeather.comTHE COAST...THERE WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

"IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE
MAINLY TO OUR EAST. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
EXACTLY WHAT SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW MAY BE CLOSER TO THE COAST."

Heh heh. Snow.

Foot's Forecast doesn't have much more than this to offer yet on this storm.  AccuWeather.com is leaning more toward a Delmarva event (map, above) as the storm bears right out in the Atlantic:

"The latest consensus among AccuWeather.com meteorologists is the storm will graze the eastern mid-Atlantic with accumulating snow, while the full fury of the storm could be unleashed over New England and neighboring Canada. This is by no means the final word on the storm, but rather our best shot at this early stage. Updates on the storm will follow on AccuWeather.com

"With a track well off the coast Saturday night and Sunday, it appears to be unlikely "heavy" snow will reach the I-95 mid-Atlantic and the northern and western suburbs from Washington, D.C. to Philadelphia."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:08 PM | | Comments (1)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

TMW - "Typical Model Waffling" before the event. I even see this morning that the GFS model has trended even further west but the Euro model is further east! Reminds me of a kid in a candy store trying to make their mind up!

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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