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December 23, 2010

NWS lowers our Christmas snow risk

Now the National Weather Service has begun to fall into line. The forecasters out at Sterling have begun to lower their estimates of our snow risks for the weekend, dropping the snow Snow chance 30 pcthazard on Sunday from 50 percent to 30 percent. But they remind us that this storm's track, while trending away from our shores, is not yet entirely certain:

"A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

"WHILE LATEST FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR AccuWeather.comENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC...THERE DOES REMAIN A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM TO THE WEST WOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA."

Maryland residents could still see flakes in the air as early as Saturday afternoon as a weak storm system - the first of the weekend - moves down from the northwest, according to the forecast from Sterling. If it manages to hold itself together as it crosses the Appalachians, we could see some light accumulation.

Then, the second act begins, with the storm intensifying off the Southeastern states on Sunday and moving up the coast. The latest model runs keep the storm pretty well off shore. If they're proven right, we may see nothing from it. A shift more to the west could bring us some accumulating snow Sunday into Monday, Sterling said: 

"WE CANT COMPLETELY LET THE GUARD DOWN JUST YET AS THERE REMAINS A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM. THEREFORE ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:53 PM | | Comments (3)
Categories: Forecasts, Sky Notes, Winter weather
        

Comments

Meanwhile, the 18z GFS run brings the storm further to the west. It appears to be stronger as well.

FR: Hence, the advice to keep checking the forecasts.

All these weather guessers with their hi- tech models try too hard to be the first to get it right. These guys need to stop showing off. We get it. It's hard to predict these things.

The most honest prediction they can give is 50/50. They are admitting they don't know and that is respectful.

Love the blog Frank. It's always informative and enjoyable.

I've been sockpiling milk and toilet paper ever since the local TV stations first reported the possibility of 'significant' Christmas Day snow. Please make them stop.

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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