2010-11 Snowfall Contest opens
With the return of cold weather, last Friday's flurries, and the mayhem that resulted on the roads north and west of Baltimore, the winter weather season is undeniably here. So let's have some fun with it.
The Friday Flurrimageddon put a TRACE of snow on the official season's tally at BWI-Marshall. That's one parameter for guessing the season's total accumulations. Last year's all-time Baltimore record (adjusted) total of 77 inches provides the other. We're not likely to see that again in my lifetime.
In between, however, there is a wide range of possibilities for the new season. You can start with the long-term (30-year) average of 18 inches for BWI and work backwards, or forwards. You can calculate using temperature trends in the Pacific Ocean. (These La Nina winters tend to result in more mixed-precipitation storms for us, and more storms out of the Midwest that pack less moisture than the big coastal nor'easters.)
Here's a pile of winter data for the region from the National Weather Service. Here are the average monthly and seasonal snow totals for Baltimore going back to 1883.
You can go with the big forecasting outfits, most of whom seem to be predicting a more nearly average winter. Or you can strike out on your own. Make a guess using your age, door number, or the number of hybrid cars you count on the way to work.
Whatever your reasoning, or system, submit your guess for the total snow accumulation this winter season at BWI-Marshall Airport. The meteorological winter ends officially on Feb. 28, but we all know the March can bring a flakey surprise, as it did in 2009. So let's cut off the count on March 15.
Post your entry, in inches for the entire season, as a comment here. I'll keep a tally, and the person coming closest without going over will win some fabulous Baltimore Sun swag of my choosing. People related to me, and time-travelers, will be disqualified.
UPDATE, Dec. 15: Entry period will close with the first measurable snowfall of the season at BWI. That could come Thursday. Or not.
UPDATE: Dec. 16: With snow in the air and on the ground at BWI, we hereby close the entries for the 2010-11 snow contest. Thanks to all who have entered. And good luck!
Let the snow bands and whiteouts and wintry mixes begin!
Comments
I'm going to go with a possibly hopeful 23 inches. Bring on the white stuff!
Posted by: Corine | December 13, 2010 6:17 PM
I'm going with 18.1".
Posted by: Ken D | December 13, 2010 7:26 PM
Count me in for 27, Frank..because my birthday is, well, December 27, and I'm a snow lover.
Posted by: Amy | December 13, 2010 7:57 PM
Frank,
Well I am going to go with a pessimistic (Or optimistic depending on your viewpoint) guess of 12 inches.
Fran in Baltimore
Posted by: Fran Smith | December 13, 2010 8:12 PM
I'll take a stab with 20 inches, just a tick above normal.
Posted by: Sam | December 13, 2010 8:18 PM
31 inches
Posted by: Josh | December 13, 2010 8:19 PM
I'll go with 15.7 inches. Slightly below average.
Posted by: Scott | December 13, 2010 8:36 PM
36 inches
Posted by: Therese | December 13, 2010 8:53 PM
I looked at the years with 50+ inches and noticed that a lot of them had near-average years the year after. I'm going to pick 18.6 inches.
Posted by: Perry | December 13, 2010 10:37 PM
Josh took my 31 inches, so I'm going to Price is Right things and go 31.5 inches.
Posted by: lis | December 14, 2010 3:48 AM
11 inches. And I hope I'm 11 inches too high.
Posted by: Chris Smolinski | December 14, 2010 7:05 AM
Put me down for 21.5 inches. Still above average, but it'll seem like nothing!
Posted by: David | December 14, 2010 7:07 AM
I'll go with 10 inches for this winter at BWI.
Posted by: Diane Goldbloom | December 14, 2010 7:11 AM
32 1/2.
FR: This is great. Entry period will remain open until we get our first measureable snow at BWI.
Posted by: Tim D | December 14, 2010 7:14 AM
22.2"
Posted by: Eric | December 14, 2010 8:31 AM
I think im going to go with 19 inches.
Posted by: julian | December 14, 2010 8:31 AM
My guess will be 29.3 inches of snow total.
Posted by: Mary | December 14, 2010 8:51 AM
Going with 18.7 inches this year
Posted by: Mike G | December 14, 2010 9:22 AM
Frank,
My hypothisis calls for 20.75 inches. Tiebreaker= one 12-13" storm, remaining 7-8 inches spread out over several clipper type storms.
Thanks let the flakes fly! Oh and some snow would be nice too!
Posted by: Drew Lenear | December 14, 2010 9:52 AM
I'm in for 15'4".
Posted by: Andrew | December 14, 2010 10:05 AM
I'll go with 13.5 and hope I'm 13 inches over. (I hare the white stuff!)
Posted by: Lea | December 14, 2010 10:14 AM
At BWI (scene of the snowtotal robbery last year)? 22 inches. Everywhere else? 26
Posted by: Angel | December 14, 2010 10:23 AM
I am going with 25 inches! I hope more>
Posted by: Victoria Sullivan | December 14, 2010 10:25 AM
Since it's my first year teaching in the city, I'm dying for a snow day and I'm incredibly unlucky, I'm going to guess 7 inches.
Posted by: Ms. Nash | December 14, 2010 10:29 AM
59 inches!!
Posted by: Ed | December 14, 2010 10:36 AM
I'm going with 17.3, figuring conservatively, although I love snow and wouldn't mind quite a bit more.
Posted by: Todd | December 14, 2010 10:43 AM
This is going to be an ugly winter -- at least two major snow storms -- a total of 22.2 inches.
Posted by: Kevin | December 14, 2010 10:45 AM
33.3 inches
Posted by: Peggy | December 14, 2010 10:47 AM
13.6".
Posted by: zevonista | December 14, 2010 10:48 AM
I predict 13.7 inches
Posted by: Paul Mittermeier | December 14, 2010 10:50 AM
I'm guessing 22.4".
On another note, I mentioned to my housemates the other day that "at least they aren't predicting another Snowmageddon" to which everyone laughed and said that the Farmer's Almanac was predicting it to be far, far worse than last year, and that the Farmer's Almanac tends to be right all the time. I thought they were wrong on both fronts--isn't the Farmer's Almanac incorrect a good deal of the time? And I thought that pretty much no one is predicting another snow like last year's for this season? Please, someone tell me I'm right--I love snow as much as the next person, but there certainly is such a thing as "too much of a good thing."
FR: You're right.
Posted by: D | December 14, 2010 11:05 AM
15.3 inches. A family birthdate. While I rather like snow, last year was way, waaaayyyy too much, even for me!
Posted by: Carolyn | December 14, 2010 11:25 AM
17.8
I have no idea why. Am I too late?
Posted by: Cymantha Governs | December 14, 2010 11:30 AM
I'm going to guess 29 inches....for no particular reason!!
Posted by: Jessy | December 14, 2010 11:38 AM
Let's see. I'm going for 16-1/2 inches.
Posted by: Linda M. Tanton | December 14, 2010 11:46 AM
ABOUT FOUR STORMS AT 12 INCHES EACH....ADD ABOUT FOUR -- 3 INCH DAYS---ONE FOR GOOD MEASURE--I SAY 61 INCHES THIS YEAR.....THAT WOULD INCLUDE OPENING DAY AT CAMDEN YARDS...LOL...
Posted by: WILLIAM BUDKA | December 14, 2010 11:49 AM
My birthday is 9/29, so 9+29=38" is my guess.
Posted by: Mike | December 14, 2010 11:52 AM
I am going for 8.6 Inches
Posted by: Mike S | December 14, 2010 11:57 AM
i am going to say 17.6 inches i think this is going to be a to cold to snow winter
Posted by: bea alkire | December 14, 2010 12:28 PM
I'm saying it will go as high at 23.5 inches this winter at BWI.
Posted by: Bill Hughes | December 14, 2010 12:47 PM
22.10 inches.
Posted by: pigtown design | December 14, 2010 12:47 PM
I'd say 24 inches this year, my desired amount
Posted by: Brian | December 14, 2010 12:57 PM
4 1/2 feet.
Ducking out of the way of cuss words, and snowballs
FR: OK. 54.0 inches it is.
Posted by: Patty | December 14, 2010 1:12 PM
I'm going Joe Bastardi's theory that after December the rest of the winter will be relatively mild and dry.
12.2 inches with NONE in January.
Posted by: MikeS | December 14, 2010 2:34 PM
I said 25 inches you stated it was from Angel! Please correct.
Posted by: Victoria Sullivan | December 14, 2010 2:54 PM
15 inches
Posted by: joe bollinger | December 14, 2010 3:17 PM
If you believe one model, we can expect a foot of snow this weekend, including during the football game. In any case I'll say 25.2 inches.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_126s.gif
Posted by: Davey | December 14, 2010 3:30 PM
24.5 inches.
Frank,
Have you heard anything about a possible snowstorm this weekend?
FR: Some models say snow, others see a mixed bag or rain. NWS is understandably uncertain. The storm may track too far out to sea to bother us, or it might not, affecting mostly the eastern counties. Stay tuned. (We may also get a dusting Thursday, depending on the track. More likely to see snow to our south.
Posted by: David | December 14, 2010 3:35 PM
7.5
Posted by: MIP | December 14, 2010 3:45 PM
26.45 inches
Posted by: Trevor | December 14, 2010 4:28 PM
41.3 inches
Posted by: Brian | December 14, 2010 5:29 PM
Frank. Have you seen the latest from Foot? They're talking about a repeat of last December 19th. Not locked in, certainly, but they're rumbling about it already.
Oops.
FR: Too early to get the shovel out of the shed. But we're watching. http://bit.ly/ihAqw8
Posted by: Gregory Hill | December 14, 2010 5:32 PM
19.3 inches
Posted by: Jessica | December 14, 2010 8:37 PM
Put me down for 19.8 inches at BWI.
Dave the Ground Hog.
PS: Yes, there will be 6 more weeks of winter this year.
Posted by: Dave | December 14, 2010 8:52 PM
I don't think we'll have 77 inches again either, so this time around, maybe just.... 65 inches.
Posted by: Ken Marsh | December 14, 2010 9:50 PM
I'm tempted to add the birth month and birth date to come up with 37", but I think that's a bit much.
My 'official guess' is 18.5" (squeezing in just under Perry and Mike G. - sorry guys - VBG, but just over the long-term average).
Posted by: Mike | December 14, 2010 10:10 PM
Frank, I just moved to a house with a huge driveway to shovel. Knowing my luck, I'll be out there a lot. I'm going with 26".
Posted by: Jen | December 15, 2010 6:12 AM
14" for me.
Posted by: LJ Kirk | December 15, 2010 11:04 AM
I have a new snowblower, so it can't possibly be a bad winter. I'll go with an even 10 inches.
Posted by: Henry | December 15, 2010 12:40 PM
39 -- because that's how long I've been married.
Posted by: Barbara | December 15, 2010 12:47 PM
My guess is 13.6 inches
Posted by: Rick | December 15, 2010 1:36 PM
Frank,
I'll go with 28.5". We'll get one reasonable nor'easter and a few smaller events.
Posted by: jason | December 15, 2010 1:37 PM
$1
Oh wait...this isn't the showcase showdown?
Posted by: TheBeav | December 15, 2010 1:40 PM
14.5"
Posted by: Andrew | December 15, 2010 1:57 PM
44"
Posted by: Mike R | December 15, 2010 3:04 PM
I guess 21.2 inches.
Posted by: I win | December 15, 2010 3:06 PM
36"
Posted by: David G | December 15, 2010 4:18 PM
Will be 14.76 inches at BWI, in two storms. First will be 4.56" and second will be 9.0".Will have a couple of minor accumulations.
Posted by: Mike | December 15, 2010 5:12 PM
16.75 inches
I am going more wth Foote's early forecasts of something coming from tomorrow/saturday, and getting away from the farmers almanac/ la nina predictions of cold early with less moisture in storms, but not going to say above average.
Posted by: Mather | December 15, 2010 5:20 PM
8.8"
Posted by: charlie brown | December 16, 2010 8:41 AM
Sliding in under the wire with a guesstimate of 38.15" for the winter.
We're not getting off light; la Nina or not. Above average precipitation is my guess.
Posted by: Earl | December 16, 2010 12:13 PM