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September 15, 2010

TS Karl strikes Yucatan; Igor, Julia at Cat. 4

Tropical Storm Karl was making its way ashore in Mexico's Yucatan peninsula Wednesday morning, spinning with top winds at 65 mph and bringing torrential rains to the region. Far to the east, Cat. 4 Hurricanes Igor and Julia continued to roil the Atlantic, with the greatest danger in tiny Bermuda.

Here's a satellite view of the entire basin, showing all three storms.

NOAA KarlKarl's center was last situated just off Chetumal, Mexico, and is likely on shore by this writing. Tropical Storm Warnings were posted for the east coast of ther Yucatan, with Watches up for parts of coastal Belize.

Karl was expected to move inland and weaken, with 3 to 5 inches of rain forecast for the region. The storm is predicted to re-strengthen after moving off the peninsula into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, reaching hurricane strength before making a second landfall on the Mexican Gulf Coast.

Karl does not pose a threat to the U.S. mainland. Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Igor (forecast track on the left, below) was located this morning about 1,000 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving to the west NHC/NOAAnorthwest at 10 mph. Top sustained winds were estimated at 145 mpg. Those winds were already affecting the Leeward Islands with large swells, and the same conditions are expected in Puerto Rico and the Bahamas, creating dangerous surf and rip currents.

Rising surf and rip currents are forecast for the U.S. Atlantic Coast this weekend.

Bermuda (top, middle of Igor's track) is following Igor closely, although any Hurricane Watches aren't likely until Thursday. At least one cruise ship has elected to bypass the island because of the threat. Two other ships have tweaked their port calls in the Northern Leewards because of sea conditions.

Here is the latest advisory on Igor. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Farther east, Hurricane Julia (storm track on the right on map) reached Cat. 4 strength overnight, with top winds at 135 mph. It remains a threat only to shipping and fish.

Does this seem like a busy, intense season yet? Consider these stats, from Jeff Masters' blog on Weather Underground:

1. Julia is the strongest hurricane to form so far east in the Atlantic.

2. Earl was the fourth-strongest to venture so far north.

3. This season marks only the second time two Cat. 4 hurricanes have spun in the Atlantic simultaneously. The first time was in September 1926.

4. Julia is the fourth Cat. 4 storm this season. Only two seasons have had five Cat. 4s: 2005 and 1999.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:20 AM | | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Comments

Interesting stats on the hurricanes. Another oddity, nearly every one of the them is recurving very early and sparing the US from any direct hits, and the gulf has been unusally quiet with no hurricanes making landfall, only tropical storms.

As per the drought, someday it has to start raining as usual, 1/2 inch every 30 days won't help the farmers for next year and if the winter is dry, this area could be in for some major problems once the water table drops to low.

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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