Tropical system will move up East Coast
With a new tropical system (could become Nicole) getting organized in the northwest Caribbean, FEMA has already issued an advisory to residents of the Southeastern U.S. to prepare for heavy rain and other possible disruptions.
"We are closely watching this storm and are in close touch with Florida and other East Coast states as they prepare for potential heavy rains and other weather conditions in the coming days," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate. "As always, our goal is to do everything we can to support the states as they work to keep their communities safe, and ensure that citizens are aware of all resources, like www.ready.gov, that can help them prepare. As this depression reminds us, severe weather can develop quickly and with little warning. It's important that everyone take steps to get ready today for storms that could pose a threat in the coming days."
Eric the Red - a professional meteorologist from Baltimore and frequent contributor here, says the models don't agree on what to expect:
"There are 2 distinct camps.
"Camp 1: Storm and its associated heavy rain stays to our west, with hit-and-miss tropical showers on Thursday. ... The WRF [model] takes the remnants of the tropical system to the northwest into eastern Kentucky and then northeast up the Appalachians, with most of the hevay rain falling well to our west.
"Camp 2: This group features a track that more or less follows I-95, with landfall in central S.C. and then heading north-northeast, accompanied by torrential rainfall and gusty winds, arriving late Weds., with the main show during the day Thursday. The GFS and Canadian [models] have the center of the storm passing over Baltimore City [about] 5 p.m. on Thursday.
"It is very hard to ignore the Canadian ... which has remained remarkably consistent with the storm from run to run. The GFS has come into agreement with the Canadian as well. We still have another day to sort it out, but I think the region will get hit pretty hard on Thurs. The final track will also have serious implications for the bay and OC, with some coastal flooding likely if the storm follows the GFS/Canadian track."
"For what it's worth, the Canadian has a follow-up tropical storm heading up the coast early next week."