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September 28, 2010

Tropical system will move up East Coast

With a new tropical system (could become Nicole) getting organized in the northwest Caribbean, FEMA has already issued an advisory to residents of the Southeastern U.S. to prepare for heavy rain and other possible disruptions.

"We are closely watching this storm and are in close touch with Florida and other East Coast states as they prepare for potential heavy rains and other weather conditions in the coming days," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.  "As always, our goal is to do everything we can to support the states as they work to keep their communities safe, and ensure that citizens are aware of all resources, like www.ready.gov, that can help them prepare.  As this depression reminds us, severe weather can develop NOAA/NHCquickly and with little warning.  It's important that everyone take steps to get ready today for storms that could pose a threat in the coming days."

Eric the Red - a professional meteorologist from Baltimore and frequent contributor here, says the models don't agree on what to expect:

"There are 2 distinct camps.

"Camp 1: Storm and its associated heavy rain stays to our west, with hit-and-miss tropical showers on Thursday. ... The WRF [model] takes the remnants of the tropical system to the northwest into eastern Kentucky and then northeast up the Appalachians, with most of the hevay rain falling well to our west.

"Camp 2: This group features a track that more or less follows I-95, with landfall in central S.C. and then heading north-northeast, accompanied by torrential rainfall and gusty winds, arriving late Weds., with the main show during the day Thursday. The GFS and Canadian [models] have the center of the storm passing over Baltimore City [about] 5 p.m. on Thursday.

"It is very hard to ignore the Canadian ... which has remained remarkably consistent with the storm from run to run. The GFS has come into agreement with the Canadian as well. We still have another day to sort it out, but I think the region will get hit pretty hard on Thurs. The final track will also have serious implications for the bay and OC, with some coastal flooding likely if the storm follows the GFS/Canadian track."

"For what it's worth, the Canadian has a follow-up tropical storm heading up the coast early next week."

Here's the NWS forecast for Baltimore.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:13 PM | | Comments (0)
Categories: Forecasts
        

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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