Old Farmer's Almanac sees sn...y winter ahead
How can I break this to you? Someone dropped a copy of the 2011 Old Farmer's Almanac on my desk over the weekend. So, naturally, when I got in this morning, I immediately opened it to the 2011 weather forecast.
Well, first let me say there is good news on the page. The almanac's seers believe next summer 
will be relatively cool and dry. The cool part, we like. Of course, after the warmest summer on record for Baltimore, anything would seem cool by comparison. The dry part we may need to appeal, since we have been dealing with scarce rainfall and - in some parts of the state - drought throughout the summer of 2010.
Then there's the winter forecast. The Old Farmer believes the November-through-March period coming up will be "cold and snowy" across most of the South and into the mid-Atlantic states as far north as New York City.
The almanac's forecasters use a variety of indicators for their prognostications. They include sunspot cycles, and El Nino/La Nina patterns. La Nina is expected to be a factor this winter:
"We expect that a weak to moderate La Nina will develop for the winter of 2010-11. Most of the eastern portion of the nation will have below-normal winter temperatures, on average (the weaker the La Nina, the colder it will be) ... Snowfall will be above normal in most of the area from the mid-Atlantic states through the southeast part of the country and below normal in most other areas."
Here, I need to insert a caution. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center shows nothing of the kind. Their seasonal forecast for the December through February period shows equal chances for above- or below normal temperatures and precipitation in the mid-Atlantic states. In the Southeast, they expect below-normal temperatures, but also below-normal precipitation.
NOAA also says La Nina cooling in the equatorial Pacific began in late spring and has strengthened in recent weeks. And indications are it will continue to strengthen and persist through the winter. And the pattern seen most frequently during La Nina winters in the mid-Atlantic includes relatively warm temperatures - not cold. It also brings the jet stream (which generally also means the prevailing storm track) right over us, which would seem to suggest above-normal precipitation.
I leave it to you to sort out all this seemingly contradictory information. But if you hate snow, (and the Old Farmer is correct about weak La Ninas bringing colder winter weather) it seems like you should be rooting for a strong La Nina.
Or, maybe you should find a cheap condo in Florida.
(SUN PHOTOS: Top: Dec. 18-19, 2009 blizzard. Bottom: Feb. 5-6, 2010 blizzard. Both by Karl Merton Ferron)
Comments
and what does Foot's forecast Predict?
FR: Looks like they're too busy with the hurricane season to venture a winter forecast. http://footsforecast.blogspot.com/
Posted by: patty | September 13, 2010 1:00 PM
It seems like the almanac has done this in the past: after a cold, snowy winter they predict another one, but it never seems to transpire. I remember specifically after the horrible winter of '94, they predicted '95 would be worse, but it was actually rather calm. It would be interesting for someone to research just how often the almanac is accurate. No one provides information on their past accuracy, only what they predict for the future.
FR: Actually, for what it's worth, the Old Farmer's Almanac does provide a self-critique on last winter's predictions for 16 cities. It found the farmer's temperature predictions had the above/below normal direction correct in nine cities, and wrong in seven, coming within 1.9 degrees of the actual temperatures, on average, for the nation as a whole. He says he correctly forecast the above-normal snowfall in the mid-Atlantic states and four other regions, but missed it in the Ohio Valley, southern Heartland, much of the Deep South and in Texas and Oklahoma. Doesn't seem like a shining record to me. I've never put much stock in the almanac. Winter weather forecasting is difficult enough over a week or two. Long-term climate factors, such as El Nino and La Nina, are helpful. But other critical factors, such as those in the North Atlantic, change on much shorter time scales.
Posted by: Neal | September 13, 2010 1:06 PM
got the cool summer wrong. lets hope its wrong about the snow
Posted by: TOM | September 13, 2010 4:32 PM
I can tell you right now, it will be a bad
snowy winter and worst then last year
(floresent Green wooly warm, look out)
buy your snow shoval NOW!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: R Borkoski | October 3, 2010 10:50 AM
Take a look at our Winter Forecast at FirstHandWeather.com
Posted by: matthew holliday | October 5, 2010 10:02 PM
06 Oct 2010 22:50:58 GMT
Source: Reuters
* Despite dire forecasts, season has been benign for U.S.
* Atlantic weather turned many storms harmlessly north
* Pacific enjoys one of the quietest seasons on record
The same people predicting hurricanes predict the winter weather. If they got paid for predicting correct weather, they would starve to death.
FR: The NHC never makes forecasts on US landfalls. (AccuWeather did, saying more Atlantic hurricanes raises chances for more landfalls.) The NHC only predicted a very active Atlantic season. They were correct.
Posted by: Fred | October 7, 2010 8:24 AM
A tribe of Native Americans elected a new chief, and they asked him,.. how cold will it be this winter? He didn't know what to tell them, so he called the National weather service. They told him that it would be a seasonably cold winter. So he went back to his people and told them to chop plenty of fire wood.
A week later they asked him again,... how cold will it be this winter. Again he called the National Weather Service. They said, it looks like it's going to be a very cold winter. He went back and told his people to chop more wood, and weave blankets.
A week later his people asked him again,... How cold will it be this winter? Again he called the National Weather Service and asked them. They said that this might just be the coldest winter we've ever had. So he asked,... How do you weather people know this? The man on the phone said,... "Well, don't tell this to anyone, but we've been watching the indians, and they've been making blankets and chopping wood like crazy.
Posted by: jim d | October 7, 2010 11:41 PM
Is the snowy and cold forecast include the state of Maryland?
FR: Yes. But the Farmer's Almanac forecast differs from those by NOAA and AccuWeather.com, which see more average snowfall ahead for us, and no clear trend on temperatures. The worst winter weather, they add, is likely to occur across the northern tier of states this winter.
Posted by: Jake | November 4, 2010 4:20 PM