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September 20, 2010

Dipping into 40s tonight; crowding 90 by Weds.

It's going to be quite a roller-coaster ride this week, Maryland. The National Weather Service forecast has BWI-Marshall slipping into the 40s early Tuesday morning. If they're right, it will be our first excursion into the 40s since May 9 - at least at the airport. The WeatherDeck in Cockeysville has been there already this Weather mapmonth.

But we'll have lots of sunshine again this week. There is no rain anywhere in the 7-day forecast until Saturday. And as this high-pressure dome over our heads (map) moves offshore on Wednesday, we will come under the return flow from the south. And that will bring us much warmer temperatures and more humidity.

The forecast high for Wednesday is 89 degrees at BWI. Just a little nudge and we'll bump the all-time BWI record for 90-degrees days to 57. (And NWS forecasters typically undershoot the summer highs at BWI.) The rest of the week will see the highs loitering in the same neighborhood - upper 80s. Some models push them into the lower 90s Thursday and Friday afternoon. It's going to be hard not to switch on the AC again after a merciful couple of weeks without.

A cold front by Saturday could bring us a few showers, and it will drop temperatures back to the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The average high for this time of year at BWI is 77 degrees. The average low is 55.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:29 AM | | Comments (2)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

GFS talks about 53 for tomorrow morning in Cockeysville, http://www.theweatherland.com/index.php?&hpl=6&lat=39.4812172&lon=-76.6438598&lat2=39.4812172&lon2=-76.6438598&city=Cockeysville&z=&show=1&cf=3&all=2

I thought I would post an interesting summary of Maryland droughts. It seems as though, based on the data, they are increasing in frequency for most of this region. The current drought is going to likely make some record books for areas west of Frederick and south of Anapolis. Our area is 6+ inches below normal for the year, and only 0.53 inches of rain since August 12th! At this rate, we will be 14 inches below normal by December 31. Frank, could you offer some weather facts as to why it is not raining inthis area anymore, i.e., what is the primary reason prolonged rainfall has essentially stopped for most of Maryland.

http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/drought/MD_drought_periods.html

FR: Persistent high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states, and a jet stream pattern that has been carrying storms well to our north, through the Great Lakes region. May be related to the La Nina event that began late last spring, ending the El Nino pattern that sent the storm track up the east coast last winter, bringing us record snow. These patterns change naturally, but climate scientists would add that climate change is predicted to intensify and prolong these periods of extreme weather - wet and dry. Not sure I can discern that in the data you've linked, though.

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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