Schools in Harford and Baltimore counties have announced they will be closing early Thursday due to the heavy rain. They cite "deteriorating weather conditions" and "The continued accumulation of standing water" on local roadways.

Carroll and Cecil have also announced early closings.

Okay. I get it. We don't want our children to be out there on the roads when some low spots are covered or closed by high water.

So does it make sense to then actually send them (and their parents and caretakers who will have to pick the kids up and get them home or to another safe place) out into those very conditions? Wouldn't it be better to keep them safe at school? 

The rain is forecast to continue, and the flooding could get worse. But it's not exactly the same as accumulating snow. What do you think?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:37 AM | Permalink | Comments (20)
Categories: Flooding
        

UPDATE, 12:30 p.m.: The National Weather Service has extended the Flash Flood Watch until 6 a.m. Friday. "There is increasing concern that moderate to heavy rain will continue in the I-95 corridor until past midnight." 

Portions of Maryland between the Blue Ridge and the Chesapeake Bay could see a whole lot more rain than we've clocked so far. Check out this from the National Weather Service's morning forecast discussion:

"WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE [FORECAST AREA].
MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL RATES TO
AROUND 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

"AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN SHORE
OF THE CHSPK BAY. WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOCALLY OVER A FOOT ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE."

Prof. Jeffrey Halverson, at UMBC, says he's worried we may see a second slug of heavy rain tonight as a second low, the actual remains of Tropical Storm Nicole, cruise past the region.

Eric the Red agrees:

"The second low, which is the actual remant circulation of Nicole, is expected to lift north toward the region tonight.  Models differ on the speed... with the GFS [model] bringing heavy, heavy rain from this system into the region this eve, and has it ending by tomorrow morning. 

"The NOGAPS has similar timing.  The Canadian and UKMET are slower... and have the torrential downpours with this second part of the event occurring a bit later tonight into tomorrow.  Since the second low - remnants of Nicole - are expected to pass just to our east, the tornado threat is not as great (thankfully).  I think a compromise in timing makes sense... so an additional period of heavy rain tonight and ending in the morning.

"Total rainfall amounts under this new scenario double, if not more.  4-8" will be widespread, with the potential for higher amounts.  If Nicole strays a bit to the east, then rainfall amounts will be less.  I guess I've seen enough to buy into the double-whammy."

UPDATE, 12:20 p.m.: BWI-Marshall has recorded 3.46 inches of rain so far from this storm, bringing the month's total to more than 5.5 inches. Normal precipitation for BWI in September is 3.98 inches.

Meanwhile, there is still a Coastal Flood Warning up for the Western Shore. The high tide at Baltimore (chart) appears to be running about 2 feet above predictions.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:44 AM | Permalink | Comments (9)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Woke to the sound of rain on the WeatherDeck well before dawn Thursday. We've recorded nearly an inch already in Cockeysville. But some locations, mostly south of Baltimore, have reported well over 2 inches today, with a full day of additional precipitation on tap.

Flash Flood Warnings are posted for all of Central Maryland, from Frederick to Harford and south to St. Mary's County.

It's a sprinkling compared with what Wilmington, N.C. has seen since Sunday - more than 20 inches, according to AccuWeather.com.

Here are some of the early Maryland numbers from the CoCoRaHS Network:

Park Hall, St. Mary's Co.: 6.95 inches

Bowley's Quarters, Baltimore Co.:  5.30 inches 

Leonardtown, St. Mary's Co.:  4.77 inches

Hollywood, St. Mary's County:  3.90 inches

Kingsville, Baltimore Co.: 2.57 inches 

Deale, AA Co.: 2.37 inches

White Marsh, Baltimore Co,: 2.35 inches

Bowie, PG Co.:  2.10 inches

Crofton, AA Co.: 2.0 inches

South Gate, AA Co.:  1.88 inches

Baltimore Sun, downtown: 1.75 inches

North Beach, in Calvert County, is reporting some roads closed due to flooding.

Route 244 in Beauvue, St. Mary's County was under water.

Rock Creek, in Rockville, Montgomery County was also reported to be in flood at Rte. 28 and Avery Road.

Forecasters are still predicting 2 to 4 inches of rain in the region before the precipitation ends overnight tonight.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:50 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: By the numbers
        

FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:

October arrives tomorrow, bringing with it (we hope) some of Baltimore’s best weather. The 10^th month is typically dry and pleasant, and the leaves begin to show plenty of color. Average daytime highs at BWI-Marshall slip from 73 degrees to 62 degrees by month’s end. The lows drop from 50 to 39 degrees. Record highs and lows fall to the mid-80s and mid-20s. The earliest trace of snow on record for Baltimore fell Oct. 17, 1977.

(SUN PHOTO: Jerry Jackson, Towson, 2007)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: From the Sun's print edition
        

The National Hurricane Center says Tropical Storm Nicole, never a well-organized system, has now dissipated. But the moisture it captured from the Caribbean in recent days is still being swept north in a heavy plume that will feed our rainfall overnight and Thursday.

National Weather Service meteorologist Brandon Peloquin said this afternoon, "It's pretty certain that everyone will receive rain, and a decent amount of rain" from the storm. The official forecast is still for 2 to 4 inches across most of the region, with higher amounts along a rain "axis" that's currently forecast to set up along the Blue Ridge.

"The morning rush hour will probably be a mess, because we expect heavy rain to be falling at that point," he said. It's likely to be raining still into the afternoon, tapering off "toward the end of the evening rush hour."

Flash Flood Watches remain in effect from Cumberland east. There's also a Coastal Flood Watch in place for the Western Shore of the Chesapeake Bay. The southeast winds are expected to drive water into the creeks and rivers, boosting high tide predictions by 2 to 3 feet with "moderate" flooding.

Wilmington, N.C. has received more than 5 inches of rain so far today, on top of a foot since Monday.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Forecasters are warning that a new tropical storm near Cuba this morning will merge with low pressure forming off the southeastern U.S. overnight to bring Central Maryland 2 to 4 inches of rain tonight and Thursday, with up to 6 inches in some locations.

Although the storm is forecast to bring sustained winds of 20 mph, gusting to 45 or 50 along the Western Shore of the Chesapeake, this is expected to be mainly a heavy rain event.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Maryland from drought-stricken Washington County east to the Lower Eastern Shore - also reeling from a very dry summer. Light rain is expected to begin near the Chesapeake by early evening, increasing in intensity and moving westward overnight.

"Rainfall totals of two to four inches are expected, with isolated amounts up to five inches possible. This may cause streams and creeks to quickly rise out of their banks," the Watch says. "People living in areas that are prone to flash flooding should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Motorists tonight and Thursday should be aware of the possibility of flooded roads. These should never be crossed."

A Coastal Flood Watch is also in effect for Thursday on the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay as the approaching low and onshore winds conspire to drive water into the Western Shore's rivers and creeks. Tides are forecast to rise two to three feet above normal at high tides Thursday.

Urban flooding is expected, so Baltimore's Department of Public Works Wednesday asked residents to clear trash from storm drains in advance of the rain, and to secure trash that might wash into the storm sewers and clog them. To report storm drains that can't be easily cleared, officials asked residents to dial 311.

Maryland's Emergency Management Agency urged residents to assemble an emergency supply kit with water, non-perishable food, a flashlight and batteries, and and a battery-operated radio for monitoring weather conditions.

"Those living in in areas subject to flooding should be prepared to evacuate if needed," the agency said. "Motorists are reminded to never drive through standing water because several inches of fast-moving water can carry a vehicle down stream."

BGE officials said its crews were preparing for the heavy rain and strong winds, which could cause power outages. "At this time, given the projected path of the storm, we fully anticipate several thousand service interruptions," said A. Christopher Burton,  senior vice president for gas and electric operations. "We strongly urge our customers to take the time now to prepare."

This latest round of extreme weather seems to have impressed even seasoned meteorologists. A forecaster at the NWS's Baltimore-Washington Forecast Office was moved to add this to his Wednesday morning forecast discussion:

"I'll say this - The weather of 2010 is something I won't soon forget. Blizzards, severe storms, record-breaking heat, drought, and now potential flooding."

There are several things playing into the very wet weather ahead for Central Maryland. The first is a trough of low pressure - a cold front - which is lurking just to our west. The second is the  Bermuda High still lingering off the coast. Together, they have formed a kind of one-way wind corridor from the tropics to Maryland.

What's preparing to move up that corridor is a huge gusher of tropical moisture that has been percolating for a week in the northwestern Caribbean. That system is the newly-named Tropical Storm Nicole.

The National Hurricane Center says Nicole finally made tropical storm status this morning. It is a minimal storm, with top sustained winds of just 40 mph. But it's a very wet one that has been drenching Cuba, and is moving today to do the same to southern Florida. And then forecasters say it will head north, along that open corridor, to the mid-Atlantic states. Here's the latest advisory on Nicole.

The current storm track takes it straight toward Baltimore. And along the way it will be swept up by the final component in this sprawling weather event, the coastal storm that is expected to form off the Southeastern states Wednesday night.

As the tropical moisture is drawn north along the Atlantic corridor, it will run into the Appalachians and the cold front parked to our west, unloading all that tropical rainfall on us. Expect periods of torrential rains, strong and gusty winds, possible thunderstorms or tornadoes. The region is also likely to experience power outages as trees and limbs succomb to the weather and tear down wires as they fall.  

The good news is that much of the East Coast really needs a big dose of rain. But we don't need flooding and we don't need people skidding off wet roads or driving into overflowing streams. So the other bit of good news is that by the time it gets here, this system will be moving north pretty fast, minimizing the time it spends unloading its water on us.

Jeffrey Halverson, an associate professor of environmental science at UMBC, offers this analysis of what's ahead:

"My commentary, after studying charts and reading various discussions, this AM:

"1. The models are still having trouble with regard to placement of the heavy rain axis, and we are now [less than] 24 hours from the onset of a major event. There may be a tendency for some models to push heavy rain too far to the NW, away from the coast. Nor have the models successfully predicted the very early arrival of the moist air mass, now pushing up through Richmond toward Baltimore.

"2. Widespread 2" - 4" with higher amounts seems likely along  and east of the I-95 corridor.

"3.  There are two components to this system that are expected to phase: (a) the deep tropical mositure plume which includes remnants of [Nicole]; and (b) the closed upper low over the SE US with a lingering frontal boundary along the coast. This upper-level low - which is distinctly non-tropical in origin - is expected to form a new coastal low somewhere in the vicinity of NC-VA, which will then draw in and process the tropical plume.

"Heavy rains over our area will come from three elements: (1) the tropical plume gliding up over the coastal front; (2) uplift provided by the remnants of [Nicole]; and (3) the developing coastal low."

The Maryland Emergency Management Agency urges Maryland residents to make preparations.

The storms could lead to power outages, and residents are urged to have an emergency supply kit with water, food, a flashlight and a battery operated radio or weather radio. Residents should monitor local news broadcasts for updates and those living in areas subject to flooding (low-lying areas, areas along streams and creeks) should be prepared to evacuate if needed.

When driving in such conditions, motorists are reminded to never drive through standing water because several inches of fast moving water can carry a vehicle down stream. TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN.

If your area is under a tornado warning, move quickly to the basement or an interior room away from windows and doors. If you cannot get into a building, lie flat in a ditch or on low ground and cover your head with your hands.

For more information on preparedness, go to the following web sites:

"http://www.mema.state.md.us/">and click on be prepared, which will take you to pages for general preparedness, flooding and other natural disasters (which includes a section on tornado preparedness.

"http://www.redcross.org/">and click on the Preparedness and Getting Trained tab, then the Preparedness Fast Facts link.

For more information, contact Ed McDonough, MEMA public information officer, at 410-517-3632 (office) or 410-446-3333 (cell).

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Forecasts
        

With a new tropical system (could become Nicole) getting organized in the northwest Caribbean, FEMA has already issued an advisory to residents of the Southeastern U.S. to prepare for heavy rain and other possible disruptions.

"We are closely watching this storm and are in close touch with Florida and other East Coast states as they prepare for potential heavy rains and other weather conditions in the coming days," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.  "As always, our goal is to do everything we can to support the states as they work to keep their communities safe, and ensure that citizens are aware of all resources, like www.ready.gov, that can help them prepare.  As this depression reminds us, severe weather can develop quickly and with little warning.  It's important that everyone take steps to get ready today for storms that could pose a threat in the coming days."

Eric the Red - a professional meteorologist from Baltimore and frequent contributor here, says the models don't agree on what to expect:

"There are 2 distinct camps.

"Camp 1: Storm and its associated heavy rain stays to our west, with hit-and-miss tropical showers on Thursday. ... The WRF [model] takes the remnants of the tropical system to the northwest into eastern Kentucky and then northeast up the Appalachians, with most of the hevay rain falling well to our west.

"Camp 2: This group features a track that more or less follows I-95, with landfall in central S.C. and then heading north-northeast, accompanied by torrential rainfall and gusty winds, arriving late Weds., with the main show during the day Thursday. The GFS and Canadian [models] have the center of the storm passing over Baltimore City [about] 5 p.m. on Thursday.

"It is very hard to ignore the Canadian ... which has remained remarkably consistent with the storm from run to run. The GFS has come into agreement with the Canadian as well. We still have another day to sort it out, but I think the region will get hit pretty hard on Thurs. The final track will also have serious implications for the bay and OC, with some coastal flooding likely if the storm follows the GFS/Canadian track."

"For what it's worth, the Canadian has a follow-up tropical storm heading up the coast early next week."

Here's the NWS forecast for Baltimore.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:13 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Sunday into Monday, it was mostly Central Maryland and parts of the Eastern Shore that saw quenching rains to ease the long summer's dry weather and drought. The extremely parched regions west of Frederick were mostly left out.

But the rains that followed, Monday into Tuesday, have been more generous. Here are some 24-hour totals from the CoCoRaHS Network:

Manchester: 1.77 inches

Taneytown:  1.58 inches

Thurmont:  1.45 inches

Williamsport:  1.26 inches

Cumberland:  0.88 inch

JS, a regular Maryland WeatherBlog reader in Frederick County, had this to say:

"the rains came---2 inches in western frederick county, it sure sounded nice on the roof last night and early this morning :) too late for my friends in farming, they got devastated this year--very grim situation"

It looks like most of the rain - that firehose that's been gushing up the East Coast  for the last 24 hours, is about to slide off to the east. Now we have a new tropical system to watch (below).

The National Hurricane Center says the stormy region that's been boiling in the northwest Caribbean for the past few days has finally become a tropical depression, the 16th of the season. It is very close to becoming the 14th named storm of the Atlantic season, Nicole. It is expected to move across Cuba into southeastern Florida and up the coast in the next 48 hours.

Here is the latest advisory on TD 16. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

The National Weather Service is calling this system the "remnants of Tropical Storm Matthew," and forecasting that it will be drawn into low-pressure set to develop off the Southeast coast late Wednesday, bringing us the threat of heavy rain ... maybe:

"THE TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE DYNAMICS FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. EXACT AREA OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE IS AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE [FORECAST AREA].

"AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED WHEREVER THE HEAVY
BAND OF RAIN DOES SET UP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL
BE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY."

The folks in Sterling are calling for us (BWI) to get up to 3 inches of new rain Wednesday into Thursday. The wekend, in case you have plans, looks cool (60s) but sunny.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Drought
        

The sound of rain we've been missing for most of the summer, the water absent from the creeks, the gutter-washing torrents we've not had for so long? It's all on the way this evening. Time to watch the summer's trash come down the Jones Falls.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for most of Maryland, from Frederick to St. Mary's county.  It reads, in part:

"A POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAINFALL TO CENTRAL
  VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND
  VIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
  BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS WITH
  ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES IN BANDS OF HEAVIER RAIN AND
  THUNDERSTORMS.

" FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH DUE TO THE RECENT DRY
  WEATHER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...HIGH AMOUNTS
  OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY CAUSE SMALL STREAMS AND
  CREEKS TO QUICKLY RISE OUT OF THEIR BANKS"

That doesn't sound like it includes Maryland, but it does. The rain may be light at first, but forecasters do expect periods of heavy rain overnight and early Tuesday. A half- to three-quarters of an inch is possible at BWI.

UPDATE, 6:45 p.m.: The rain forecast for BWI now put the possible totals at 1 to 2 inches.

There's also a Coastal Flood Advisory and a Coastal Flood Watch up for the Western Shore of Maryland. The approaching low is already raising water levels, and easterly winds drive more water ashore at the times of high tide.

UPDATE 6:40 p.m.: Harford, Baltimore and Anne Arundel Counties and Baltimore City are now under a Coastal Flood Warning. Here's the real-time tide chart for the city.

"THE WATER LEVEL AT BALTIMORE WILL REACH 3.5 TO 4 FEET...REFERENCED
TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. ANNAPOLIS WILL REACH 3.5 FEET MLLW. IN
BOTH LOCATIONS...THIS IS AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MINOR FLOODING."

And that won't be the end of it. Another storm, a tropical system expected to move up the coast at mid-week, could bring us another round of heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday. Here's the Hazardous Weather Outlook with details.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:01 PM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Sure it's gray and drippy here. And there are no palm trees anywhere. But at least we're not in Los Angeles, which is sweltering in record 112-degree heat this afternoon. They've long-since broken the daily record (106 degrees in 1963). Now they've matched the all-time high for the city - 112 degrees. (Five days ago it was in the 70s, with lows near 60.)

And it's not even the hottest time of the day yet.

UPDATE: The NWS is now reporting 113 in downtown LA, the hottest reading there since record-keeping began in 1877.  

Here's the forecast discussion. This from the LA Times:

"As of noon, Weather.com reported that downtown L.A. was broiling at 109 degrees; Santa Monica hit 106, West Hollywood was at 111 and Long Beach was at 107. [Updated at 12:52 p.m.: As of 12:50 p.m.: downtown L.A. had hit 112 degrees, close to an all-time record.]

"The National Weather Service warned of extreme heat and red-flag fire dangers Monday. A small fire broke out in Ladera Heights but was quickly put out. Another small brush fire was contained Sunday night in South Pasadena. 

"On the energy front, California consumers are expected to use more than 45,000 megawatts by peak afternoon hours, said Gregg Fishman, a spokesman for Cal-ISO, which coordinates power for 85% of the state's grid. 

"Though the expected energy consumption is high for this time of year, increased usage is not expected to cause any serious problems, Fishman said. Still, Cal-ISO is recommending residents avoid using heavy appliances in the afternoon."

But it's a dry heat.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:58 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: By the numbers
        

FROM THE WEATHER SERVICE:

 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTY...

AT 1251 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO.  THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HAMPSTEAD...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WESTMINSTER...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:59 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Watches and warnings
        

We know it was hot - a record summer for Baltimore and Washington. And, we know our electric bills were high as we cranked the AC all summer trying to stay cool. Now, the PJM Interconnection - the power grid managers for 13 eastern states and DC - say the region set a record for electrical demand during the summer just ended.

Consumers used almost 203.7 million megawatt-hours of power during June, July and August. That, they say, is enough electricity to run the entire country of Mexico for a year.

The total was 12 percent higher  than the summer of 2009, which was unusually cool. And it blasted through the previous summertime record, 203.4 million megawatt-hours, set in 2005.

The demand was 37 percent higher than the average demand, and 47 percent higher than last summer, the PJM folks said.

The PJM region extends from Illinois to New Jersey, and as far south and North Carolina.

(AP PHOTO: George Widman)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (14)
Categories: Heat waves
        

Lots on the weather docket this morning. First the rain we've already received. Baltimore and a number of other locations in Maryland have recorded well over an inch of rain in the last 24 hours as a major seasonal change in the large-scale weather patterns takes hold.

As autumn settles in this week, we will erase the shortfall in moisture we built up during the first three weeks of September. The forecast from the National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling projects as much as an inch and a quarter of additional rain through Tuesday. And, if things work out the way some models suggest, we could be looking at a great deal more rain before the month ends on Thursday as a tropical system moves our way.

First, the totals for the last 24 hours. BWI-Marshall is reporting just a little over an inch since the rain began Sunday morning. We have 1.06 inches on the gauge here at The Baltimore Sun. But here is a sampling of some higher numbers from across the region, from the CoCoRaHS Network.

Bowie:  1.68 inches

Bishopville, Worcester Co.:  1.63 inches

Baltimore City:  1.54 inches

Delmar:  1.52 inches

Pasadena:  1.38 inches

Kingsville:  1.29 inches

Towson:  1.01 inches

Ellicott City:  0.90 inch

Havre de Grace:  0.70 inch

Next, forecasters say we're looking at a "slight risk" for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight along the I-95 corridor. "Heavy rain and strong gusty winds" are also a risk early Tuesday, forecasters said.

Here's why: There is a cold front parked along the coastal states, with low pressure centered over Georgia. The counter-clockwise spin around the low is drawing a load of moisture north out of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic. Hence, our soaking rain, which is going to continue off and on through Tuesday as the low moves north into the eastern Great Lakes.

If enough warm air gets north along with the tropical moisture, that could trigger thunderstorms in the area as the cold front approaches the region. Flash flood watches are already posted to our south and west, in parts of southwest Virginia, but not yet for us. It's been so dry, there is plenty of room in area streams to absorb much of this rain.

The NWS has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor to moderate flooding on the Western Shore from Harford to St. Mary's counties at high tide as the low approaches and east winds drive bay water onto low-lying spots. 

And as the cold front moves through early Tuesday, we may see another round of thunderstorms, heavy rain and gusty winds in the Baltimore-Washington corridor, forecasters say. An "isolated tornado" is also possible.

High pressure behind the cold front could clear skies later on Tuesday, and bring us some sunshine on Wednesday. But a tropical storm, or remnants of a storm, are forecast to be moving up the coast by Thursday. Models disagree on where the rain will fall.

Eric the Red, a professional meteorologist from Baltimore and a frequent contributer here, said the Canadian forecast model brings the storm along a more westerly track. That, he says, "would give the region a period of torrential rainfall Thursday and Thursday night."

"If I had to make an early call," he said, "I say we get smacked by either the remnants of a tropical storm, or the storm itself, during the latter half of the week ... The rain, while quite unpleasant to drive in, is much-needed ... and should put a dent in the developing/expanding drought in the region."

UPDATE: At noon, Eric adds this:

"The WRF/NAM [model] has between 3" and 7" of rain falling between now and Thursday night, and this does NOT include the tropical storm (should it stay close enough to the coast). Short-range model ensembles have similar results. Make sure those sump pumps are working and drains are clear of debris!"

(REUTERS PHOTO: Steve Schaefer, Sept. 26, 2010)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:11 AM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Drought
        

FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:

Tom Campbell, in Towson, writes: “Farmer’s Almanac and all the TV weather guys had the [autumn] equinox at 11:09 p.m.[Wednesday]. Where are you getting 11:13?” I’ve seen both times published, too.

I take much of my data on these things from Guy Ottewell’s terrific Astronomical Calendar (left), and his source used 11:13 p.m. EDT. He blames the discrepancies on “differences somewhere deep in calculating programs.”

(SUN PHOTO: Frank Roylance)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: From the Sun's print edition
        

FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:

Joe Bollinger, of Glen Burnie, asks: “What is the BWI record for the number of cooling degree-days for a single season?” CDDs are a temperature-based measure of cooling energy demand. We’ve clocked 1,679 cooling degree-days through Thursday, about 49 percent above the average.

NWS meteorologist Jared Klein says the Baltimore record is 1,770, in 1930. But 2010 is running second, very close to the 1930 pace.

(SUN PHOTO: Amy Davis, 2006)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: From the Sun's print edition
        

Tropical Storm Matthew is making a bee-line for Central America, with Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the Honduran and Nicarguan coasts.

The storm was located Friday morning about 80 miles east southeast of the Honduran/Nicaraguan border, moving quickly west toward land at 20 mph. Top sustained winds were estimated at 50 mph. It's not a real powerful storm, but it is going to drive a storm surge ashore, and will deliver rains predicted at 6 to 10 inches, with some spots likely to get 15 inches.

That kind of rain will inevitably mean mudslides and flash floods that always put life and property in danger.

Once ashore, Matthew is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression, slow down and eventually turn toward the north. Over land, it could fall apart and dissipate. Or, it could move back over the warm waters of the Gulf and regroup.

AccuWeather.com blogger Meghan Evans says that in either case, moisture from Matthew, or perhaps the next storm to form in the Caribbean, is now likely to be drawn north into Florida. And that could eventually send some badly-needed rain our way.

Here is the latest advisory on Matthew. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space. Stay tuned.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:18 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The National Weather Service is predicting that high temperature records will fall Friday at all three regional airports. The record at BWI-Marshall for this date is 95 degrees. That's also the forecast high for the day, but Sterling's prognosticators frequently underestimate the "summer" highs for Baltimore. Stay tuned.

UPDATE, 3 p.m.: Instruments at BWI show 94 degrees so far this afternoon. That makes a record 57 days so far this year at 90-plus degrees. The Baltimore average is 29.4 days in one calendar year, so we've nearly doubled that. Still waiting to see if we break the record high for the date. 

The other prediction of note in today's forecast discussion from Sterling is that the region is in for a pretty good dose of rain next week as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico surges north just west of the Appalachians. Here's how the morning discussion puts it:

"CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AS [WIND] FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH [LOW] WILL DIVE OUT OF THE MIDWEST US AND CLOSE OVER THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPI
VALLEY...ALLOW[ING] DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO SURGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST US TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC.

"LIGHT PRECIP MAY BEGIN SUNDAY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE [FORECAST AREA] OVER COOLER AIR AT SURFACE...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...CNTRL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...  WITH CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS...MAXIMA SHOULD REMAIN IN LOW 70S. INCREASINGLY MOIST TREND CONTINUES INTO SUN NIGHT.

"SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORECASTED TO DEVELOP OVER DEEP SOUTH MONDAY AND SLOWLY TREK NORTHWARD JUST WEST OF APPALACHIANS THRU TUE.  LOW LEVEL  FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY FOR MID-ATLANTIC...ALLOWING FOR MOIST MARINE AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC TO POOL AGAINST APPALACHIANS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

"PRECIP CHANCES BEST WHEN SURFACE SYSTEM IS JUST WEST OF REGION MONDAY NIGHT... SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP COULD RESULT...AND HAVE RAISED PROBABILITIES DURING THIS PERIOD. NO PLANS AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS...BUT IF MODELS CONTINUE CURRENT TREND...THIS INTRODUCTION MAY BE WARRANTED."

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:10 AM | Permalink | Comments (5)
Categories: Forecasts
        

FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:

Ninety-degree weather in the first few days of autumn is not uncommon for Baltimore. We broke 90 on three days in early October 2007. And in October 1941, the city saw four days with record highs in the 90s, including a 97-degree reading on the 5^th. That’s still the hottest October day on the books. The latest date for  such weather here was on Oct. 23, 1947, when the mercury reached 91 in downtown.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: From the Sun's print edition
        

The new Drought Monitor map for this week is in, and for the first time since April 2009 it shows the entire state to be unusually dry. Nearly one-third of the state's geography is in moderate to extreme drought, with the worst of it west of Frederick.

More than a few times in my 30 years in Maryland, these summer dry spells have been ended by a brush with a tropical storm, or its remnants. Hanna in September 2008, Ernesto in September 2006 and Tammy in October 2005 come to mind.

We've written recently about the possibility that the patterns in the Atlantic may be about to change. And now comes AccuWeather.com with a rather confident prediction that we are, indeed, about to see a sharp change in our rain fortunes - albeit too late for many farmers.

The commercial weather company is calling it, rather inelegantly, "Troptober" - suggesting that tropical weather will be the dominant force at work here next month. Their thinking is that the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are about to start boiling, tossing off tropical systems that have an increasing chance to make landfall in the northern Gulf region, or to track up the East Coast.

That, they believe, would mean improved chances that the dry and droughty region from Louisiana to southern New England is about to see some repeated, heavy rain:

"Repeating downpours could add up to a foot of rain in some locations, not only leading to street flooding and highway slow-downs, but perhaps all the way to small stream and even some river flooding.

"One tropical system alone can easily drop several inches of rain and erase the drought or abnormally dry pattern in these areas. There is the potential for several such systems to move northward. The details of which are not known at this time."

The National Hurricane Center today is already tracking a new tropical depression - the 15th of the season - in the western Caribbean (satellite photo). But it appears headed for Central America. Hurricane Watches are already posted for parts of Nicaragua and Honduras. 

UPDATE: The storm has now reached tropical storm strength. Its name is Matthew, the 13th named storm of the season. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Let's see how good AccuWeather.com's experts really are.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 1:43 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Forecasts
        

FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:

Yes, that was the Harvest Moon you saw last night (if clouds didn’t interfere). It’s defined as the full moon occurring closest in time to the autumn equinox, and was so named because farmers used its light to extend their harvesting into the night.

The moon was precisely full at 5:18 a.m. EDT today, just 6 hours and 5 minutes after the equinox at 11:13 p.m. last night. That makes it pretty nearly the definitive Harvest Moon.   

(AP PHOTO: Sabillasville, Md., September 1994)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: From the Sun's print edition
        

It would be hard to find anything in this week's weather to complain about ... that is, if you don't care whether it rains or not. It's been cool and dry, gloriously sunny, with clear, starry nights. The AC is silent and there's a breeze through the house. What's not to like?

But if you're already missing summer as the equinox arrives tonight, you'll be delighted with the next few days. As this high-pressure system moves east, and warm and increasingly humid air pushes up from the South, it's going to feel a whole lot more like July than September. Today, Thursday and Friday, daytime highs will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s if the forecast from Sterling holds up.

As hot as it may feel, we're not likely to break any records. Friday comes closest. Here are the BWI-Marshall forecast highs, and the records for the next few days:

Wednesday: Forecast high: 88 degrees. Record:  99 degrees, in 1931

UPDATE: The thermometer at BWI reached 90 degrees at 3 p.m. Wednesday. That's the 57th day in the 90s this year, the most on record here. It was 47 degrees just before dawn on Tuesday.

Thursday: Forecast high: 90 degrees. Record:  98 degrees, in 1970

Friday:  Forecast high: 92 degrees. Record:  95 degrees, in 1970

Highs in the 90s as we cross the autumnal equinox (at 11:13 EDT tonight) does seem a bit extreme. Just think of it as a farewell salute to the hottest summer on record for Baltimore.

A cold front passing by early Saturday will drop the day's high to 80 degrees, with showers possible later in the weekend and temperatures slipping back into the lower 70s for the first part of next week.  That's about average for this time of year.

To date, September is running 1.2 degrees above average, with a rain deficit of 1.89 inches.

(SUN PHOTO: Jerry Jackson, September 2003)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (4)
Categories: Forecasts
        

The amazing Igor continues to prowl the Atlantic. The gigantic storm has lost its tropical engine, but it remains a formidible storm, with top winds of 80 mph, and a breadth that has now topped 900 miles.

Hurricane Warnings are posted for parts of Newfoundland and there's a Tropical Storm Watch up for the French-owned islands of St-Pierre and Miquelon.

Incredibly, this gigantic storm is still stirring the waters from Atlantic Canada to the Bahamas:

"LARGE SWELLS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL
BE SUBSIDING TONIGHT.  SWELLS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE IN NOVA
SCOTIA...NEWFOUNDLAND...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION."

Here is the final advisory for Igor from the National Hurricane Center. Here is the very bizarre forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:42 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

It's not often that so many celestial events come together at nearly the same time. But from Wednesday night to Thursday morning, we can enjoy a bundle of them.

The only glitch may be the weather. The forecast calls for "mostly cloudy" skies Wednesday night as this cool, dry, high-pressure system moves east and pumps in more heat and humidity for Wednesday and Thiursday. But Wednesday and Thursday are both expected to be sunny, or mostly so. So perhaps we'll get lucky. Here's the rundown:

Wednesday night will be the night of the full Harvest Moon. Moonrise for Baltimore will occur at 6:26 p.m. EDT. If you're still enjoying this glorious extended summer at the beach, look for the moon to pop over the Atlantic horizon a bit earlier, at 6:20 p.m.

The moon won't be perfectly full until 5:18 a.m. Thursday morning. But no one will be able to tell the difference. It's still, officially, the night of the Harvest Moon. So enjoy.

The Harvest Moon, by the way, is defined as the full moon closest in time to the autumnal equinox. That, as it happens, occurs 11:23 p.m. EDT on Wednesday evening, so it would be hard to get a much more definitive Harvest Moon.

Also appearing on this busy evening is the planet Jupiter, which many skywatchers have been admiring for weeks (see posts below) as it gleams brightly in the eastern sky after sunset. Jupiter was at opposition early this morning, directly opposite the sun as seen from Earth.

The Earth reaches opposition with Jupiter once a year, as both planets orbit to the same side of the solar system. That also makes it their closest approach of the year. 

And it takes Jupiter 12 years to circle the sun once. So once on each of Jupiter's orbits of the sun, it passes perihelion - the point in that slightly lopsided orbit that is closest to the sun and therefore also to the inner planets, including Earth.

This year, opposition and Jupiter's perihelion are occuring at nearly the same time. That makes this the nearest Earth and Jupiter will be until 2022. Amateur astrophotographers are having a field day with Jupiter. There's a gallery of their images here.

So if you have a pair of binoculars, or a small telescope, or if you can find one of Baltimore's street-corner astronomers, take a few minutes to get a look at Jupiter. Even in binoculars, Jupiter appears as a round disk, not a point of light. And if you hold the glasses steady enough, you should be able to pick out as many as four of the planet's Galilean moons, strung out like tiny beads on either side of the planet.

Even if you just step outside this evening, or Wednesday evening, and look with only your eyes, you're sure to be impressed by Jupiter's brilliance in the evening sky, and the moon's. Jupiter remains in the sky all night this month, rising from the east to its highest point at midnight, before moving toward the western horizon before dawn.

Which brings us to the third event of the night of Sept. 22/23. Soon after the Harvest Moon begins climbing into the eastern sky, look for Jupiter to rise close behind it. The two brightest objects in the sky this month will be in "conjunction" on this evening, separated by about the width of your hand held at arm's length.

No charge. Enjoy.

(PHOTOS: Top: AP PHOTO, Tom Thompson, Peninsula Daily News, Port Angeles, Wash., 2004. Bottom: Jupiter in 2009, AP/NASA)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:32 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Sky Watching
        

With Hurricane Igor racing off toward Eastern Canada and rapidly losing its tropical characteristics, storm watchers are beginning to turn their attention to the 12th named storm of the season. TS Lisa is spinning up in the far eastern Atlantic, the birthplace of so many of our storms this season.

Lisa was located this Tuesday morning about 530 miles west northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, moving to the north at 5 mph. Top sustained winds are at minimal tropical storm force, just 40 mph. Conditions in the region seem favorable for further development, forecasters said. But there is little to drive the storm to the west for now, so the forecast track shows little movement.

Here is the latest advisory on Lisa. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Much closer to home, forecasters have also begun to watch a region of stormy weather in the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean. They're giving it a 20 percent chance to become a named storm within the next 48 hours. Here's a view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:15 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The web site of the Royal Gazette reports no deaths and no serious injuries on the island of Bermuda as Hurricane Igor pulls away Monday morning. But at least 28,000 residents are without power and considerable damage is reported from around the island, especially in the historic town of St. Georges.

Here is some video from a spot many cruise passengers are familiar with - Tobacco Bay, just a short walk from St. Georges.

The Bermuda Weather Service at midnight reported sustained winds of 75 mph, with gusts to 98 mph as the east side of the storm's inner bands crossed the island. The eye passed about 40 miles to the west.

By daybreak, the Bermuda Weather Service was reporting rain with southwest winds at 40 mph - still tropical-storm-force - and gusts to 53. The barometer was rising as Igor moved off rapidly to the north northeast.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:38 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

It's going to be quite a roller-coaster ride this week, Maryland. The National Weather Service forecast has BWI-Marshall slipping into the 40s early Tuesday morning. If they're right, it will be our first excursion into the 40s since May 9 - at least at the airport. The WeatherDeck in Cockeysville has been there already this month.

But we'll have lots of sunshine again this week. There is no rain anywhere in the 7-day forecast until Saturday. And as this high-pressure dome over our heads (map) moves offshore on Wednesday, we will come under the return flow from the south. And that will bring us much warmer temperatures and more humidity.

The forecast high for Wednesday is 89 degrees at BWI. Just a little nudge and we'll bump the all-time BWI record for 90-degrees days to 57. (And NWS forecasters typically undershoot the summer highs at BWI.) The rest of the week will see the highs loitering in the same neighborhood - upper 80s. Some models push them into the lower 90s Thursday and Friday afternoon. It's going to be hard not to switch on the AC again after a merciful couple of weeks without.

A cold front by Saturday could bring us a few showers, and it will drop temperatures back to the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The average high for this time of year at BWI is 77 degrees. The average low is 55.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:29 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Bermuda's Royal Gazette is reporting heavy activity at the island's L.F. Wade International Airport Saturday as visitors who could, left the island in anticipation of Hurricane Igor.

The storm, weakened to Cat. 1 with top sustained winds of just 85 mph, was reported this morning 235 miles south of Bermuda, moving to the north northwest at 12 mph. The storms center was expected to pass near or over the island Sunday evening.

Although weakened, Igor is a large storm. Hurricane-force winds extend 90 miles from the storm's center, with tropical storm force winds felt 345 miles from the center. Islanders also were told to expect 6 to 9 inches of rain, a dangerous storm surge, and large waves.

Igor is causing life-threatening surf and rip currents all along the U.S. East Coast.  Here is the latest advisory on Igor. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

If you're on the Maryland or Delaware shore, you can already see Igor's effects. There is a High Rip Current Risk advisory posted from the Outer Banks to the Maryland beaches. Here's the nut of it:

"LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE IN RESPONSE TO DISTANT BUT
POWERFUL HURRICANE IGOR. NEARSHORE WAVES WILL AVERAGE 4 TO 6 FEET
TODAY...WITH WAVE PERIODS AROUND 14 TO 16 SECONDS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES
FROM OCEAN CITY MARYLAND SOUTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH
CAROLINA.

"THE MOST DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED A COUPLE OF
HOURS EITHER SIDE OF LOW TIDE...WHICH WILL OCCUR ON TODAY AROUND
1142 AM AT OCEAN CITY...AND 1141 AM AT DUCK. A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS IGOR RE-CURVES WELL
OFF THE EAST COAST."

With cruise ships making regular runs from Baltimore to Bermuda these days, there must be thousands of Marylanders who have been to the island. What are your memories of your visit? What are your thoughts as the island prepares for Igor? Leave us a comment below.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 7:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:

The planet Jupiter will reach “opposition” on Tuesday. That means it stands “opposite” the sun as seen from Earth, rising bright in the east as the sun sets in the west.

It’s also Jupiter’s closest approach to Earth this year, and the best time to see the giant planet in a telescope, or binoculars.

Find something to steady your binocs, and you can spot up to four of Jupiter’s “Galilean” moons, tiny star-like objects lined up on either side of Jupiter’s disc.

(PHOTO: James Willinghan. From Spruce Knob, W.Va., Sept. 6. Lumnera Skynyx 2.0M camera and Astronomix RGB filters through a 12-inch Meade SCT. 500. Used with permission)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:01 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: From the Sun's print edition
        

Just back from dinner in Fells Point, where my wife and I ran into Baltimore's Street-Corner Astronomer, Herman Heyn.

Herman had Jupiter in his sights this evening, along with all four Galilean moons, strung out like beads on either side of the planet's disk. (Photo left)

Even with the naked eye, passersby could see the planet rising above the Recreation Pier, the brightest object in the sky, except for a VERY bright three-quarter moon.

Too many people walk by Herman, a familiar figure on the Baltimore waterfront for decades. Herman has introduced thousands people to the night sky, amazing kids and grownups - on the square in Fells Point, or at Harborplace - with what is often their first look at a planet, directly, with their own eyes.

Whether it is striped Jupiter with its moons, ringed Saturn or a crescent Venus, those who stop for a minute and look are invariably impressed, often wowed.

Herman asks no more than a word of thanks (though donations are welcome). Next time you see him and his telescope, stop and say hello, and ask him what's up in the sky tonight. You won't be disappointed.

Anyway, after getting a long look at Jupiter and the moon through Herman's eyepiece, I went home and hauled my little telescope onto the front sidewalk.

The sky was clear and dry, around 65 degrees, a perfect evening for hanging out under the stars. I grabbed my little point-and-shoot Canon, stuck the lens into the eyepiece of my telescope, snapped the shutter and hoped for the best.

Here's how they turned out. Not bad for an backyard astronomy hack like me.

(SUN PHOTOS: Frank Roylance, Meade ETX-90, Canon Powershot SD1100 IS)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:22 PM | Permalink | Comments (6)
Categories: Sky Watching
        

FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:

Some say the news media “hype” the hurricane season forecasts each year, playing to unwarranted fears. Here’s some food for thought. Data compiled by Environmentalsciencedegrees.net show the eight costliest hurricanes since 2000.  All occurred during the 2004, 2005 and 2008 storm seasons. From Jeanne ($8 billion in damage) in 2004, to Katrina ($125 billion) in 2005, they inflicted a total of $238.3 billion in damage. More than 1,800 people died in Katrina alone. 

(AP PHOTO: Tampa Tribune, Hurricane Ivan, 2004)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: From the Sun's print edition
        

Hurricane Igor is expected to strike the island of Bermuda this weekend. Hurricane Warnings are up for the speck of land 600 miles off the Carolina shores, and authorities there are warning residents this storm is "probably the worst we have seen," with winds up to 150 mph.

The National Hurricane Center, however, says Igor's central winds have decreased to 105 mph, with higher gusts, making it a Cat. 2 storm. That would make it less powerful than Hurricane Fabian, which struck in 2003. Igor, while weaker, is moving fairly slowly (10 mph), potentially lengthening the time it will batter the island.

Six hundred miles is close enough for this powerful storm to kick up swells, heavy surf and dangerous rip currents all along the mid-Atlantic coast. The National Weather Service is advising beach-goers to beware of surf conditions this weekend:

"SOUTHEAST SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE IGOR WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY [FRIDAY] BRINGING DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND SURF TO AREA BEACHES. THE MOST DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED A COUPLE OF HOURS EITHER SIDE OF LOW
TIDE...WHICH WILL OCCUR AROUND 930 AM. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IGOR RE-CURVES WELL OFF
THE EAST COAST."

One swimmer was caught in a rip current and disappeared at Ocean City last month as Hurricane Danielle passed far offshore. Nearly 500 people had to be rescued that weekend (Aug. 28-29). The man's body was recovered a week later, 16 miles offshore.

The experience made everyone more cautious over the Labor Day weekend as Hurricane Earl moved past, more than 100 miles off the coast, again making the surf dangerous for swimmers.

Surf aside, the weekend weather for the beaches looks great.

(AP PHOTO: Laura Emmons, Salisbury Daily Times, Sept. 3, 2010)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 4:24 PM | Permalink | Comments (3)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Hurricane watchers were tracking three hurricanes in the Atlantic basin Friday morning.

Tropical Storm Karl rebounded to full hurricane force in the Bay of Campeche Thursday after crossing Mexico's Yucatan peninsula. By Friday morning it was spinning at Cat. 3 force, with top sustained winds of 120 mph. That makes Karl the fifth hurricane (out of six) this season to reach "Major" (Cat. 3) strength. That's a pretty impressive performance, and it's a lucky break there have been so few landfalls.

That said, Karl appears ready to go ashore in Mexico tonight or Saturday. The National Hurricane Center shows the storm moving to the west at 9 mph. A Hurricane Warning is up from Veracruz to Cabo Rojo, with Watches posted north to La Cruz.

Forecasters are warning of a 12- to 15-foot storm surge as the storm - which could strengthen further before landfall - approaches. Five to 10 inches of rain are likely, with some locations receiving 15 inches. Flash floods and mudslides pose grave risks to residents of the region.

Here is the latest advisory on Karl. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Far to the east, Hurricane Igor (photo) continues to stalk the island of Bermuda. Igor was located early today 730 miles south southeast of Bermuda, moving to the northwest at 9 mph. Top sustained winds were estimated at 120 mph. The island is under a hurricane watch today.

Residents have been told to prepare for a "direct hit," and forecasters are comparing it to Hurricane Fabian, which struck in 2003, leaving several dead and millions of dollars in damage.

Cruise operators are already planning to bypass the island. Here is the latest advisory for Igor. Here is the forecast storm track. Here is the view from orbit.

Hurricane Julia, even farther to the east in the mid-Atlantic, was continuing to unwind in the open ocean. Top sustained winds were estimated at 85 mph. The storm was located 1,400 miles southwest of the Azores, moving west northwest at 24 mph. It is not expected to be a threat to land. Here is the latest advisory on Julia.

Finally, forecasters have also begun to watch a new disturbance coming off the coast of Africa. The storm is given only a 10 percent chance of becoming a tropical system in the next 48 hours. If it ever makes it to tropical storm force, it would get the name Lisa.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:26 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

The thunderstorms that swept across Baltimore and other parts of the state Thursday - part of the same line of storms that caused so much damage in New York City - brought some welcome moisture. But they did little to break the region's prolonged spate of dry weather.

Here on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville, the storm left just 0.23 inch of rain in the bucket. The Baltimore Sun's weather station at Calvert and Centre streets shows just 0.22 inch. And out at BWI-Marshall, the National Weather Service reported just 0.06 inch. Other parts of the state - especially the extremely parched western counties - reported the most. Here are some reports from the CoCoRaHS Network:

Cumberland: 0.80 inch

Williamsport:  0.76 inch

Thurmont:  0.43

Frederick:  0.41

Even so, the total so far this month at BWI-Marshall comes to just 0.89 inch. That's 1.29 inches short of the average through the 16th of the month. And there is no rain anywhere in the 7-day forecast from Sterling.

The Drought Monitor map released Thursday does not include any rain that's fallen since Tuesday. It continues to show a third of Maryland in "moderate" to "extreme" drought. The portion of the state considered "abnormally dry" increased last week from 59 percent to 84 percent.

The dry conditions are - or were, before Thursday's showers -  closing in on the "normal moisture" bubble that has surrounded Baltimore and its suburbs since some mid-August rains, leaving not quite 16 percent of the state in that "normal" category.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:03 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Drought
        

FROM TODAY'S PRINT EDITIONS:

Mid-season hurricane update: We’ve had 11 named storms so far, including five hurricanes, four of which reached “major” Cat. 3 (and 4) strength. We’re passing the full-seasonal average. (Forecasters all predicted an “active” year, with roughly 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five “major” storms.)

Most have blown out over water. None has made a U.S. landfall, although Earl brushed the East Coast and T.S. Hermine brought flooding rains to Texas. The season ends Dec. 1. 

(NASA PHOTO: Hurricane Igor)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:00 AM | Permalink | Comments (2)
Categories: From the Sun's print edition
        

The National Snow and Ice Data Center is reporting that the planet's arctic sea ice extent this summer was the third-smallest on record, behind only 2008 and 2007. It was 625,000 square miles smaller than the long-term average. It has now begun to reform as the northern winter approaches.

Arctic sea ice is important to the regulation of the planet's temperature because ice reflects sunlight. When there is less of it, less solar energy is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by the (much darker) Arctic Ocean.

On the other end of the planet, the Antarctic sea ice extent for the southern winter was the largest on record, 4.1 percent above the 1979-2000 average. Clearly, global warming does not mean everyplace warms up in unison. 

Here's more from the NSIDC.

Also today, NOAA is reporting the 2010, so far, ranks as the warmest year on record globally - tied with 1998 for that distinction. Land and ocean temperatures averaged 1.2 degrees above the 20th century average. Maybe it will get really cold from now on, and all will average out to something unremarkable by Dec. 31.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 2:04 PM | Permalink | Comments (36)
Categories: Climate change
        

Tropical Storm Karl was making its way ashore in Mexico's Yucatan peninsula Wednesday morning, spinning with top winds at 65 mph and bringing torrential rains to the region. Far to the east, Cat. 4 Hurricanes Igor and Julia continued to roil the Atlantic, with the greatest danger in tiny Bermuda.

Here's a satellite view of the entire basin, showing all three storms.

Karl's center was last situated just off Chetumal, Mexico, and is likely on shore by this writing. Tropical Storm Warnings were posted for the east coast of ther Yucatan, with Watches up for parts of coastal Belize.

Karl was expected to move inland and weaken, with 3 to 5 inches of rain forecast for the region. The storm is predicted to re-strengthen after moving off the peninsula into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, reaching hurricane strength before making a second landfall on the Mexican Gulf Coast.

Karl does not pose a threat to the U.S. mainland. Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Igor (forecast track on the left, below) was located this morning about 1,000 miles southeast of Bermuda, moving to the west northwest at 10 mph. Top sustained winds were estimated at 145 mpg. Those winds were already affecting the Leeward Islands with large swells, and the same conditions are expected in Puerto Rico and the Bahamas, creating dangerous surf and rip currents.

Rising surf and rip currents are forecast for the U.S. Atlantic Coast this weekend.

Bermuda (top, middle of Igor's track) is following Igor closely, although any Hurricane Watches aren't likely until Thursday. At least one cruise ship has elected to bypass the island because of the threat. Two other ships have tweaked their port calls in the Northern Leewards because of sea conditions.

Here is the latest advisory on Igor. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Farther east, Hurricane Julia (storm track on the right on map) reached Cat. 4 strength overnight, with top winds at 135 mph. It remains a threat only to shipping and fish.

Does this seem like a busy, intense season yet? Consider these stats, from Jeff Masters' blog on Weather Underground:

1. Julia is the strongest hurricane to form so far east in the Atlantic.

2. Earl was the fourth-strongest to venture so far north.

3. This season marks only the second time two Cat. 4 hurricanes have spun in the Atlantic simultaneously. The first time was in September 1926.

4. Julia is the fourth Cat. 4 storm this season. Only two seasons have had five Cat. 4s: 2005 and 1999.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:20 AM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

It's not much, but it's the region's best shot at some moisture, pretty much through the middle of next week.

Forecasters out at Sterling, Va. have upped the chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night to 40 percent. The hope lies with a low-pressure system that's expected to move into the Great Lakes. That's going to draw moisture up from the southwest with a warm front, increasing our clouds during the day Thursday.

The best chance for showers will start in the northern tier of Maryland counties in the afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible in the mix. The better chance for the rest of the state comes overnight Thursday into Friday, as the low moves from the Great Lakes into New England, dragging a cold front across our region.

And that's about it for us. Sterling is predicting less than a tenth of an inch for most, more for those lucky enough to fall under a thunderstorm.

From there on it will look pretty much like today - sunny and pleasant, near 80 degrees if the forecast is correct.  It's gorgeous weather, unless you're a soybean plant, a lawn or a potted tomato ... or a dairyman struggling to keep your livestock fed. 

The long-term forecast shows the dry weather continuing for at least the next two weeks. The blue zones on the map show where below-normal precipitation is expected.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:57 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Now we have three named storms spinning in the Atlantic basin. - hurricanes Igor (Cat. 4) and Julia (Cat. 1) and a tropical storm, Karl, which graduated to that status this afternoon. According to my finger count, Karl is the 11th named storm of the season.

Karl is gathering strength in the western Caribbean, posing a growing threat to Mexico, Cuba, Belize and Guatemala. It was centered about 270 miles east of Chetumal, Mexico, moving to the west northwest at 15 mph. Top sustained winds were 40 mph - minimal tropical storm force.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said Karl was expected to slow its forward speed, finally moving over the Yucatan peninsula on Wednesday, and then to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late Wednesday or Thursday. It looks like this one will make a second landfall in northeastern Mexico.

(The U.S. mainland, except for Hermine in Texas, seems to have been in a protective bubble so far this season.)

Tropical Storm Warnings were posted for parts of the Yucatan, with Watches up for northern Belize. From the NHC:

"A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DAMAGING WAVES.

"RAINFALL...KARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES."

Here is the latest advisory for Karl. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Hurricane Igor, meanwhile, a threat mostly to Bermuda and soon to swimmers on the East Coast, was strengthening again this afternoon. Here the latest advisory. And here is part of a Hazardous Weather Outlook statement from the NWS forecast office in Mt. Holly, NJ, covering beaches in southern NJ and Delaware:

"THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND SLOWLY
BUILDING SURF FROM THIS FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND AS
HURRICANE IGOR LURKS WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. PLEASE MONITOR
TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER PROJECTIONS OF IGOR"

I suspect we will see similar advisories soon for Maryland and Carolina beaches as the storm moves north.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:00 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

WeatherBlog regulars and stargazing Space Cadets can now access The Baltimore Sun's Weather Blog with a new iPhone app that's gone live today. 

It can take you, slick and easy, to our news stories, photos and blogs. It's only $1.99 - one time - and comes with no ads.

Here comes the pitch:

The @baltimoresun #iPhone app is out TODAY. Get it here: http://bit.ly/ahXP6y

Posted by Frank Roylance at 3:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (1)
Categories: Notes to readers