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August 3, 2010

TS Colin not likely to become a serious threat

Tropical Storm Colin/NOAA/NHC 

Forecasters keeping watch over now-Tropical Storm Colin don't see much chance that the storm will strengthen into a hurricane. And any impact on the U.S. East Coast would seem to be limited mostly to heavy surf.

UPDATE 5:30 p.m.: Tropical Storm Colin has fallen apart. The National Hurricane Center is now calling it a "remnant low," that is expected to weaken in the coming days. Earlier post continues below.   

The morning line on Colin is that the storm is having considerable trouble holding itself together. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said that Colin "has a very ragged appearance this morning." The closed circulation they saw Monday seems to have broken down, and the storm is encountering some shearing winds out of the west, which are putting a drag on further strengthening.NASA Colin

That said, Colin (center right in the NASA photo at right) is now about 800 miles east southeast of the Leeward Islands, moving toward the west at a brisk 24 mph. Top sustained winds are around 40 mph. There are no tropical storm watches or warnings up yet anywhere. But people with interests in the Northern Leewards and the Virgin Islands have been advised to monitor the storm's progress.

The storm track posted for Colin would take it north of Puerto Rico, with a slow turn toward the northwest, and then the north. That would bring it somewhere between Bermuda and the South Carolina coast by Sunday. Some slow strengthening is expected, eventually. But, for now, the Hurricane Center does not express much confidence that the storm could become even a Cat. 1 hurricane (73 mph) before then.

If Colin does hold itself together through all this, residents and vacationers along the East Coast can probably expect to see some impact on surf conditions as the storm moves east of the beaches next week. Heavy surf and rip currents are the most likely effects.

And depending on the storm's path, they could see some clouds and showers, too. That would be a boon to Maryland's Lower Eastern Shore, which is in moderate to severe drought. That's an outcome we could root for.

Alternatively, the hurricane forecasters say, "Colin could degenerate to an open wave due to a combination of its rapid motion and westerly shear."

Here is the latest advisory on Colin. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 11:39 AM | | Comments (4)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Comments

Here's hoping Colin will bring us a little rain. So often, it is only with hurricane season that a Marylond drought is truly broken....

I hope it's a pretty strong hurricane. Hurricane parties are fun. (As long as no one gets hurt and I don't experience any inconvenienc or water damage)

for Maryland, wouldn't the ideal scenario now be that the High north of Bermuda stays in place, the remnant low (once Colin) keeps getting steered around the bottom of that High and pushed closer to the NC coast, regenerates to a nominal TS then pushes north into a stalled funnel boundary over the mid-atlantic? it seems that would give Maryland copius amounts of rain, too late for most crops but a blessing for the water sheds, trees and lawns :)

FR: I'm for it.

well, with our luck the remnant low will probably regenerate off the NC coast and then a massive cold front will blast out of the upper great lakes and yank it out to sea ):

reminds of my worst storm chase bust, it took place in Medicine Lodge Kansas in 1997, we sat in one location just west of the dryline all day, watched a supercell form to our north, decided to leave Medicine Lodge and chase that cell, it soon dissipated and then a cell erupted to our south in Medicine Lodge and spawned a F4 wedge tornado that was on the ground for 1 hour, and we had driven 2.5 hours north chasing the dissipating storm, had we stayed for just 45 minutes longer, we would have had the chase of a lifetime--weather can sure leave you dissapointed :)

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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