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June 24, 2010

Storm clouds in the Caribbean

Chances that a stormy region in the Caribbean will get organized and strengthen to tropical storm force appear to be growing today. The National Hurricane Center gives the weather in the region a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days, up from near zero a few NOAAdays ago.

For now, it's still a rather disorganized patch of thunderstorms affecting portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba, as well as the Cayman Islands. But ...

"Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for deverlopment of this system as it moves westward or west-northwestward around 10 mph over the next couple of days," the NHC said. "There is a medium chance (40 percent) of this system becoming a tropoical cyclone during the next 48 hours."

In the meantime, forecaster Joe Bastardi has said, "The lid is about to pop off first Atlantic threat of the season." He believes steering winds could bring the storm - if it forms - into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Gulf waters are very warm, so that would not be good news for those working to get the BP well under control, or to clear the beaches and marshlands of oil. 

Bastardi recently revised upward his early forecast for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. From the 16 to 18 named storms he forecast back in March, he has boosted his estimate to 18 to 21 storms. That puts him more in line with NOAA's May forecast of 14-23 named storms.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:53 PM | | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes


I will be going to Jamaica in 2 weeks so everything better steer clear until I get back.

How do I get the forecast for the Caribbean? I need to know when storms are going to hit Dominican Republic, not when when they are leaving!

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff

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