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March 8, 2010

Rainy forecast raises river flood worries

Enjoy the mild weather and abundant sunshine today and tomorrow. The National Weather Service says the above-normal temperatures will remain, but forecasters predict substantial rains by later this week and lingering through the weekend. And that is raising new worries about flooding, especially in Western Maryland, where there are still several feet of snow on the ground.

Last snowThe problem lies with a low-pressure system that will be organizing over the Central Plains later this week. As it crosses the continent and approaches the East Coast, it will draw southerly winds north ahead of it, and with that air comes lots of Gulf moisture.

Light rain could start falling west of the Blue Ridge as early as late Tuesday night, with more heavy rain possible later in the week east of the mountains. The NWS says: 

"INITIALLY...FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN BY THURS ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT WHERE 20-30 INCHES OF SNOWPACK STILL EXISTS
AS OF YESTERDAY MORNING."

"INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. LONG-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE [COMPUTER] GUIDANCE HINTING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN FRI NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS LOW BUT ANY HEAVY RAIN WOULD
POSE A THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION
."

Here's Eric the Red on the soppy forecast. He says the storm's progress will be blocked by the same North Atlantic blocking high that helped bring us so much snow in February. This time it's rain. Lots of it:

"Tuesday looks good. Wednesday ... eh. Maybe a little light rain as a warm front tries to lift north through the region. Thursday, I'm hoping we sneak in some decent hours during the afternoon before the leading edge of rain spirals at us from the west, which models have happening in the late afternoon or evening.

"Friday ... Saturday ... and Sunday: Doh, Doh and Doh. Storm stalls over the region, maintaining periods of rain. Some models have 2 to 4 inches of rain for that three-day stretch. Maybe more? Geeesh."

(SUN PHOTO: Frank Roylance/Last snow in my front yard melted Sunday)  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:32 AM | | Comments (1)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

(SUN PHOTO: Frank Roylance/Last snow in my front yard melted Sunday)

Sheesh. Really? We've still got piles of it here in Owings Mills. Of course, nothing's coming out of the taps, so I guess there's some sort of karmic balance at work....

captcha: "prorated cent". Heh. We going to micro-currencies?

FR: Well, we still have a big pile in the back. The front faces southeast, and gets loads of sun. Neighbors facing us across the street still have snow-covered front yards.

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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