Stay home? Or leave early?
So what should we do today? The National Weather Service says this Top Ten snowstorm should begin to produce flakes across Central Maryland beginning late in the morning to our south, and by 1 p.m. or so in Baltimore and its suburbs.
School systems across the region appear to have decided to cram in the minimum number of hours today to qualify as a real school day (although what kid will be thinking of anything but snow?). They'll dismiss two to three hours early to avoid the worst of the afternoon snow. They hope.
I plan to get to work as usual this morning, but I am hoping to be able to scram early and get 
home before the roads become treacherous. I can finish the day at home via computer. Lots of my colleagues will be spending the night - maybe two - in downtown hotels so they can get the papers out for Sunday and Monday delivery.
But what if all this clever planning just makes things worse today? What if the school buses, an early PM commute, the salt trucks, plows and the first few inches of snow all converge in a colossal, slippery, snowy gridlock?
We've seen it before - an afternoon snowfall that panics commuters and ends in jams that extend a 30-minute commute to hours.
Shouldn't we all just stay home today, enjoy an historic snowfall and let our public servants do
their jobs? What do you think?
Here's the forecast. The NWS is still calling for 18 to 24 inches of snow by Saturday evening as another Gulf low reforms off the Atlantic coast and spins north to the mid-Atlantic states. Two to four inches are predicted by nightfall.
If they're right, even if we just top 16 inches, this storm will rank among the Top Ten snowstorms since Baltimore snowfall records began in 1883. A 24-inch storm would rank No. 3.
Here's AccuWeather's take on the nor'easter. They finally bumped their estimates to 12 to 24 inches after lagging other forecasters late Thursday.
And here's Mr. Foot's Forecast. They're looking for 20 to 28 inches, warning motorists to be off the roads by noon.
(SUN PHOTO/Frank Roylance/2006)
| 1 | 28.2 inches ... Feb. 15-18, 2003 | 11 | 14.1 inches ... Dec. 11-12, 1960 |
| 2 | 26.5 inches ... Jan. 27-29, 1922 | 12 | 13.1 inches ... Feb. 11-12, 2006 |
| 3 | 22.8 inches ... Feb. 11, 1983 | 13 | 13.0 inches ... Mar. 5-7, 1962 |
| 4 | 22.5 inches ... Jan. 7-8, 1996 | 14 | 12.3 inches ... Jan. 22, 1987 |
| 5 | 22.0 inches ... Mar. 29-30, 1942 | 15 | 12.1 inches ... Jan. 30-31, 1966 |
| 6 | 21.4 inches ... Feb. 11-14, 1899 | 16 | 12.0 inches ... Feb. 16-18, 1900 |
| 7 | 20.0 inches ... Feb. 18-19, 1979 | 17 | 11.9 inches ... Mar. 13-14, 1993 |
| 8 | 16.0 inches ... Mar. 15-18, 1892 | 18 | 11.7 inches ... Feb. 5-8, 1899 |
| 9 | 15.5 inches ... Feb. 15, 1958 | 19 | 11.5 inches ... Dec. 17-18, 1932 |
| 10 | 14.9 inches ... Jan. 25, 2000 | 20 | 11.5 inches ... Mar. 21-22, 1964 |
This table is a bit outdated. The Dec. 18-19 storm in 2009 would now rank 7th, at 21.1 inches.
Here's more, from a professional meteorologist new to our stable. We'll just call him Eric.
"The "early" balloon-data model runs (00z) are in, and they are consistent with the idea we will see 18-24", perhaps more. The unsettling thought is this: As it stands now, the coastal low is expected to curve out to sea. If it stays closer to the coast... and heads more toward New England, then this will be a record setter for sure. The blocking high over Greenland/Davis Straight will apparently keep this from happening, but strong storms tend to go "left" cos they tend to modify the jet stream as much as the jet stream pushes them along. A weaker system is at the mercy of the jet stream, and will be more apt to go "right" or eastward along with the jet.
"Bulls Eye: Models are somewhere in nrn VA up into nrn MD for the jackpot... altho in this case, it's all relative... cos even the folks who aren't in the sweet spot will still get big-time snow. Here's what the 00z models have wrt to the location of the bulls-eye:
"The WRF/NAM puts it south of DC (seems too suppressed actually), so central MD "only" gets 14-20"
"The GFS whacks Baltimore and DC with a Goodfellas-like 24"+
"The RSM is just like the GFS, but has a bonus 30" + feature (if all snow) southeast of DC
"The PSU-Eta hits the burbs between DC and Baltimore with a Big-Money 30" max
"I think 18-24" is a safe bet... but there will be higher amounts.
"Did I mention next Tuesday? The GFS forecasts out 384 hours. In this morning's run, there wasn't a single frame that depicted temperatures above freezing. No joke.
"Oh, timing... DC: 7-10 am... Baltimore: 9 am - Noon Not good for decsion makers
"If you're at work on Friday, please, please keep an eye on radar...
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/nx_mosaic_640x480c/RE/INMAREVA_.gif
"Since the well-publicized bust last Saturday, the NWS at Sterling,VA (our local office) has been uncharacteristically aggressive with this week's watches and warnings, and I think they deserve serious kudos for being proactive.
"Fun stuff!"
Comments
I, too, can telecommute and plan to today. But I learned a huge lesson when I lived in Omaha for 5 years. With pending blizzard conditions, you don't want to mess with Mother Nature. I almost got stuck in a blizzard drift on my way home from early dismissal from work one day. A blizzard can whip up in an hour and cause white-out conditions. Better to stay home and be productive. And since they are predicting blizzard conditions here today, I say - play it safe and don't be foolish.
Posted by: Eileen | February 5, 2010 8:12 AM
Frank, you have turned me into a rabid Foot's fan! Though god knows I hate the snow, I love reading those guys and appreciate their diligent approach. I've got my food, got my wine, got my shovels, and the oil tank is full. Bring it on!
Posted by: Glamour Girl | February 5, 2010 8:23 AM
Has the current administration blamed this mess on the previous administration yet?
Posted by: Alexander D. Mitchell IV | February 5, 2010 8:30 AM
Hey Alexander D. Mitchell IV, is it possible to keep politics out of the weather page?
Posted by: Brett | February 5, 2010 8:51 AM
Has the current administration blamed this mess on the previous administration yet?
Posted by: Alexander D. Mitchell IV | February 5, 2010 8:30 AM"
They tried but the teleprompter was frozen. algore is on the way over to speak for 30 minutes to thaw it out. Stay tune
Posted by: Jim Earl | February 5, 2010 9:27 AM
At our office, we normally run 9 to 5 but today will be 8 to 12. We're hoping to get everyone home before the schools close. I hope so - I'm the only one without 4 wheel drive.
Posted by: Gonzai | February 5, 2010 9:30 AM
We stayed home - took PTO days. I'd rather be a Winter Weather Weenie, all snug at home than get stuck in a gridlock on snarky roads. Thanks to generous PTO and an understanding boss, I was able to sit this one out.
I missed the interview, but Mr. Foot was on WMIX this morning with JoJo, Regan & Sarah. I daresay they learned of him from your blog.
Good luck getting home!
Posted by: lyndyb | February 5, 2010 9:31 AM
the snow amounts are now 20-28.
Posted by: andrew in havre de grace | February 5, 2010 9:40 AM
I'm able to telecommute, but our directors wouldn't let any of us who can do so today. However, they all did. Jerks.
Should be a fun commute home.
Posted by: AngryDude | February 5, 2010 9:42 AM
Alexander would have replied, but he was outside making an "Al Gore" man with all the snow.
Posted by: Mike | February 5, 2010 10:06 AM
This is definitely one storm for the record books. The models have been fairly consistent for days now, and the current radar and model runs confirm what many, I included, have been blogging about since this past weekend. I do see most in Central MD to see over 2 feet and some to see 30"+. Then it is on to the snow fall Tuesday night into Wednesday. Fun times!!
Chris S from Baltimore Groundhog
Posted by: Chris | February 5, 2010 10:19 AM
I'm sorry, I didn't realize my sense of humor had to be left behind when the low pressure system crossed the Rocky Mountains. I'm not from around these here parts, as evidenced by the fact that I know how to drive in snow. So, having said that, let me try and blend in with the natives:
AAAAUUUUGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!! WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!!!!!!! CANCEL SCHOOL FOR THE NEXT MONTH!!!!!! GO GET ALL THE FOOD LEFT OUT OF THE GROCERY STORE!!!! EVEN IF IT'S SCRAPPLE, PIG'S FEET, AND COCKTAIL ONIONS!!!! PANIC!! PANIC IN THE STREETS!!!! DRIVE HOME AS FAST AS YOU CAN BEFORE YOU GET STRANDE--OH, NO, TOO LATE, A FLURRY!!!! SLOW DOWN TO A SAFE, PRUDENT ONE M.P.H.!!!!! DRINK LOTS OF BOOZE SO YOU DON'T FREEZE!!!!! GET MILK, EGGS, BREAD, AND TOILET PAPER AND MAKE FRENCH TOAST WHILE SITTING ON THE TOILET!!!!!! AND FOR GOD'S SAKE, DON'T EAT YELLOW SNOW!!!!!!!!
Hey, as long as you feel at home, and all that.
Posted by: Alexander D. Mitchell IV | February 5, 2010 10:20 AM
NWS has upgraded to 20-28 inches.
Posted by: lvnbraves | February 5, 2010 10:21 AM
Snowing pretty good here in the Beltsville/Laurel now at 10:15.
Posted by: Jake | February 5, 2010 10:23 AM
Nothing in Elkridge. Snowing in Columbia according to my wife.
Posted by: Brya | February 5, 2010 10:36 AM
First flurry spotted @ Druid Hill Park 11:06 a.m.
Posted by: Alexander D. Mitchell IV | February 5, 2010 11:07 AM
Foot Forecast latest is now "FORECAST TEAM: TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 24 to 36 INCHES across the Baltimore-Washington metro are up to the PA line."
Posted by: Roy D | February 5, 2010 11:45 AM
If it really does turn out to be a slammer snow storm, some head-in-the-sand ostrich Republican will Inevitably say: "Look at all this snow; it proves there is no such thing as global warming."
Take it to the bank. Happens every time.
FR: Already have. See previous comments.
Posted by: Fang Guy | February 5, 2010 11:48 AM
R.E. Al IV's comments MMMMM.... Cocktail Onions :)
Posted by: Mather | February 5, 2010 1:02 PM
The way everyone is talking, you'd think that the whole pile of snow would arrive at once this afternoon at 3 PM. As it is, we'll probably only have an inch or two during the drive home. The biggest amount of snow won't come until overnight when most people will have long since gotten home.
Posted by: Perry | February 5, 2010 1:09 PM
Enough with the political stuff. I'm rather skeptical about AGW, but a snowstorm neither proves it nor disproves it.
Posted by: Bryan | February 5, 2010 2:06 PM
Yes Perry, but we've already "lost out" on a couple inches so far, since it's all been melting, shaving a little off the top-end for total accumulation.
Posted by: Bryan | February 5, 2010 2:10 PM
Frank, I come from the nor'east, and as I recall nor'easters also come from the nor'east. This came from the sou'west.
FR: Nope. These storms come up the coast from the south or southwest. They spin counterclockwise, like all lows in the northern hemisphere, which brings the first winds onto the coast out of the northeast. As the low passes, winds shift to the northwest, dragging in colder air. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nor'easter
Posted by: nor'easter | February 7, 2010 2:16 PM