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February 16, 2010

Snow, and rumors of snow ...

Looks like the showers and flurries - all that resulted in Baltimore from the Alberta Clipper forecasters had touted all week - are about done. They added a neat 0.1 inch of snow to the seasonal tally at BWI, bringing the damage so far to precisely 80 inches. The average is 18.2 inches.

We may see a few more snow showers today and more tomorrow as more little disturbances flit by on northwest winds behind the departing storm. From there it looks like the rest of the week will bring us more cold weather, but with some sunshine. That should help to melt away a bit more of this colossal mess outside. But there are hints of a new coastal storm early next week. More on that below.

Ice in the guttersFor now, we continue  to deal with the aftermath of a month that left an official 49.3 inches of snow on the ground in just 13 days. Too much of that remains on my roof.

I was leaning out the dormers this morning trying to hack away at some of the snow and ice that have built up over the gutters. We made a little progress in the front, but the rear gutters are out of reach. And I lie awake at night listening to the drip ... drip ... dripdrip ... of water in the wall. Or somewhere it doesn't belong. We have an ice dam in the rear, which faces northwest and gets little sun.

So far, we have not seen any interior damage, or evidence of intruding water, aside from the dripping, dripping, dripping in my chamber wall. But I have lost sleep over the prospect of real leaks.

I remember heavy snow when I was a kid - maybe 1958 - that caused ice damming that backed melt water into the house. We had pots and pans all over the place to catch the drips. My grandmother's place had the same problem. It stained her wallpaper on the rear walls, and I still have dreams of her house, with water cascading down the walls. I suspect many people in Central Maryland are dealing with ice dams and unwanted water now, too. How about you?

Here's some useful advice for the ice dammed: http://capitalclimate.blogspot.com/2010/02/gettting-down-in-gutter-voyage-of-ice.html

As to the rumors of more snow ... At the moment, it is merely a projection by a forecasting model - a computer program that takes the current data and projects how the atmosphere will behave a week and more into the future based on known atmospheric physics and past performance when the setup has been very similar. It is not a guarantee. Too much can happen between now and next week to take the prediction to the bank. Or to your travel agent.

But there it is. The forecast discussion this morning from the NWS's Sterling forecast office says only this:

"HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON SATURDAY...THEN A DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF PRECIP ON SUNDAY ALTHOUGH THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EVOLUTION/TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

"UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FURTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS ECMWF [A FORECAST MODEL] INDICATES A POTENT COASTAL STORM WHICH IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE GFS [ANOTHER MODEL]. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS IN THE DAYS TO COME.Eastern snowcover, Feb. 11

"TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO [AVERAGES] THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE."

AccuWeather.com's Meteo Madness blogger Henry Margusity says the Euro model has the storm coming up the east coast on Tuesday or Wednesday:

"It really winds up a good storm off of New Jersey, another big storm, one of those two-footers. I like the look of it. Certainly it's a player on the field."

Mr. Foot and his team of student forecasters are conceding a busted forecast for the overnight Clipper. They had predicted 6 inches or more, even as the system began to weaken:

"We saw the declining situation also, but decided to leave the forecast in place to account for what wrap-around shortwaves might do overnight and today. A bust nonetheless, but we saw it as a good learning exercise in how upper level dynamics can really rule the day."

Nothing from Foot's team yet on next week's storm.

Eric the Red, a professional meteorologist in Baltimore, had this early take on its prospects:

"The setup favors it ... with another strengthening block over the Davis Straight. The block is not retrograding (moving west) into that positrion, however, which is the slam dunk part (if this happens, the storm is going to follow). Rather, the block is just kinda meandering between Greenland and Northeast Canada ... Some of last night's [model] runs have it to one degree or the other, most notably the ECMWF. The GFS has a more suppressed system..."

While we wait for the computers to sort out the likelihood of another big storm, we will take a reader poll on the prospect of more snow. You'll have a week to cast your vote:

(SUN PHOTO/Gene Sweeney Jr.)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:06 AM | | Comments (23)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

If Mother Nature gives us another chance at a third 2-foot or more snowstorm before this winter is out, I'm going to take my wife and my dog and go to Florida for a week...maybe this is nature's way of saying I should be enjoying Spring Training this year...

I was busting up the ice on my front gutter and I ended up screwing up the gutter's attachment to the house. Now, the center of the thing hangs down and creates even more icicles than before. I was hitting the gutter from the front with the end of a broom, a plastic broom no less. I figured that was gentle enough to not cause damage.

What about using calcium chloride to melt ice dams. Is it worth it? Will it damage the roof or gutters?

FR: I've considered that myself. Any roofing experts out there?

In Good Will Hunting the protagonist chose the tire iron over the stick or belt when those items were placed before him by his abusive father. Mother Nature, BRING IT ON!!!!

I have an old house with sectional gutters running 40 feet across and a section has broken off. A relative of mine who is a roofer said that if you are having problems with ice damming, the best thing you can do is remove a gutter or section of a gutter to free the water so that it doesn't dam up under the shingles and into the house. He basically said my missing section wasn't necessarily a bad thing and may be a good thing.

ice dam trick courtesy of Annapolis Capital:

Fill the leg of an old pantyhose with salt. Throw on the roof, at a right angle to the gutter. this creates a channel for water to drain into the gutter and away from the house.

FR: Fascinating. But I'll have to have a good arm to wing that thing onto the roof from the deck.

Can someone please explain the purpose of getting the public riled up over the remote possibility of snow a week away? Two days ago, you were writing of the potential for a foot of snow and we barely got a dusting. Can't we hold off on predictions until at least 36 hours in advance?

FR: I could, but if I did, this would be the last medium in the market to mention it. Not a good survival plan. Besides, this gives readers a chance to make reservations for Florida. As for the busted forecasts, those were the predictions up until maybe 24 hours before the snow arrived (or failed to arrive). I don't make 'em. I just report 'em.

My gutters are completely frozen and it's raining inside my bay window. Drip drip drip drip drip... what to do? I've thought about clearing the roof with a push broom, but that seems unsafe. What's the safest way to get rid of all this ice so it stays outside of my house?

FR: There are some suggestions in the link above. Click on "We have an ice dam" in the 4th paragraph.

Not for the faint of heart, but I had problems with ice dams in my townhouse so I got up on the ladder with a propane torch and melted the ice in the gutter and especially around the downspout. This allowed some place for the water to go. I found that underneath the ice in the gutter was water with no place to go so it was just dripping. Once the downspout was clear, the water could move again and no more leaks! Granted, it's not the solution for everyone since I was 20 to 30 feet up on an extension ladder in a trench in the snow, but it worked for me.

FR: A fatal fall and burning down the house would seem to be among the potential drawbacks.

Hi Frank,

We had a problem this fall with leaves getting into our gutters (We have 3 100+ year old willow oaks in our yard) so we had Leaf Guard come out and install their gutters, which prevents things from getting inside and if something does, the gutters are larger and that something can still flow out. But we've had a terrible time with damning this winter. We had over 4" of ice built up behind our gutters. I called Leaf Guard and they basically said it wasn't there fault and said the problem lied with air getting into our dormers (we have a Cape Cod). They provided some recommendations to prevent it from happening again, which I can send you in .pdf format if you'd like. But it is a very frustrating problem. It seems we traded not having to clean leaves out in the fall for having to chip away ice in the winter. Go figure.

FR: Sure. Send it along. We had Gutter Helmet installed last summer for the same reason. Can't say they're to blame, because nearly every house on the street (they're all identical) has the same ice problem, and most have open gutters. It's just too much snow and too much warm air getting through the insulation (or too little insulation) and leaking into the soffets. Snow melts, water gets trapped behind the ice and backs up into the walls.

It doesn't do any good if you can't safely reach the gutter, but there are some techniques to reduce the drainage problem: Gettting Down in the Gutter: Voyage of the Ice-Dammed

FR: Good advice. If I could reach the rear gutter, I'd try it.

Mr. Margusity "like[s] the look of it?" Where does he live, Florida? What's there to like about the potential of another big storm? A week of melting might help roofs and gutters, but it is not going to decrease the giant roadside piles enough to make piling another 2 feet on top any easier.

I know people are sick of snow, but at this point, there aren't too many opportunities left for any significant snow storms. Moving into March, although possible, is not as probable as we have seen in February. That said, on my blog and on Baltimore Groundhog.com I have been posting since last Friday about the possibility of another storm next week. A review of Baltimore Groundhog and our blogs will show we have been right on (granted we were off with this clipper, although we were off by a couple inches vs off 6 or more inches). Just my two cents on the probability of another snow event for Maryland.

Thanks for the dam advice about my dam ice dam. Hope it won't damage my whole dam roof. Darnit!

We got a snow-job from the former mayor so what's a few more inches.

Keep the snow coming! It reminds me of my childhood in the Midwest. Plus, as a disgruntled Baltimore City teacher, the more it snows, the less I have to work

FR: And the less your students will learn. May be time for another line of work.

I live here in Florida and can tell you it has been cooler than normal. All the way down to Miami and Keys. Not beach weather. I am in St. Augustine and the high today was about 52. Our normal temps are 67/44. We may see that this weekend. But - no snow. I was in Bmore in 2003 for that storm. Awful

I'd rather know a week in advance and be able to plan accordingly, than to have to scramble to make something happen 36 hours in advance. Who wants to find out today that 30 inches of snow will be dumped on the ground Thursday?

Buy your toilet paper now! LOL!

Okay people, get a grip. I will admit I am a snow lover so I am quite biased. But, I say let it snow. We have had diddly squat that past 7 years. This is our time to shine this year for record snow. Lets go out with a bang. At least us snow lovers will be content for another 6 or 7 years.

Gee - it sounds like a Casablanca scene - "We'll always have the winter of 2010". Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

If you can find a roofer that will install the electrical gutter tapes (and have an electrician to install an outside outlet), these cables carry a small current that heats the gutters. This maintains a flow and could help with ice dams.

80" is enough, but that's because of what it means to the community. I don't have much problem with it - originally from Nebraska: blizzards, lived in MN: 20' drifts, stationed in Iceland in the 60's: warmest day was 42 deg. F. I've been to Greenland and to the North Pole. But people get stuck in front of my house. City plow on 2/6, cars and trucks driven by folks who don't understand deep snow, folks who appreciate my dug-out spot. Enough of that for me. I like the idea of heat tape on the gutters, I might try that - after I replace the damaged sections!

People here can complain, but at least we are not in Garrett County this year. They are seeing insane amounts of snowfall!

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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