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February 8, 2010

NWS: "A good likelihood" of more than 10 inches

Snow aftermathThe updated Winter Storm Watch issued at noon today by the National Weather Service has effectively doubled the official estimates for snowfall in Baltimore with the approaching storm.

The new Watch says there is a "potential" for 8 or more inches of snow, and "a good likelihood of snow in excess of 10 inches." Previously, the Watch called for 5 inches or more.

The Watch is in effect from mid- to late-afternoon Tuesday until Wednesday evening.

The update brings the weather service more closely in line with other forecasters in the area, who have been talking about a 10 or 12-inch storm, or as much as 20 inches, for a couple of days. 

Posted by Frank Roylance at 12:57 PM | | Comments (45)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

Well, time to buy some more Guinness.

I just can't wrap my head around the possibility of another 20" on top of everything we just had. 6" doesn't sound so bad. But things are still a complete mess here, and dumping another blizzard on top is really hard to fathom. Now I wish I'd gotten more groceries last week; I'd been figuring that we'd be able to get out and around by Tuesday.

Bring it on.

has anyone considered the potenial for flooding once all this stuff starts melting???

FR: It's a real danger, and forecasters are watching it. There is the equivalent of 2 to 3 inches of rain locked up in all this snow. Add a fast warmup, or a drenching rain and you get serious flooding. A 2- or 3-inch rain after the big storm in January 1996 produced flooding on the Potomac and Susquehanna rivers that had not been seen in 60 years. Ice jams broke on the Susquehanna, and the operators of the Conowingo Dam had to open all the floodgates with little warning, flooding Port Deposit. So far, no such warmup or rains are forecast.

I'm with T Keys - Bring it on!!

Frank,

I was watching the weather channel late Saturday night, and they said that on top of this Tue/Wed storm, the Mid-Atlantic could get another blat on Friday and a big storm early next week (Mon/Tue). Did you hear about this possibility, or was I just delirious from being out in the cold all day?

FR: My understanding is there is another Gulf storm brewing, but at last check it was expected to stay well to our south.

The NAM and ETA models had been holding out hope this would be a 4-8" event until the morning. They doubled that in the 7am run.

The dire forecasts come from what the GFS, Canadian and ECM have been predicting- 1-2' for a couple of days.

Most private forecasters are going 10-20"

Possibly more important will be the 20-30 mph sustained winds with gusts to 50mph! True blizzard conditions that could paralyze the state for at least the rest of this week.

Prepare for possible power outages Wednesday and Wednesday night!

so basically, I have just enough time to regain feeling in my arms from helping to shovel out THE ENTIRE STREET here in Southeast Baltimore before I get to shovel again? I normally love snow, but UNCLE!

"has anyone considered the potenial for flooding once all this stuff starts melting??"

The only good new is the long range is dry and remains cold, but with day time highs mostly above freezing. We will need a slow thaw after Wed. especially, to avoid flooding problems.

People would love to see 70F right now, but as you implied we might have one heck of a flood mess if it happened too quick.

OK Baltimore, What you need to do is get chains for trucks and cars. They are easy to put on, can do in place. You need to work together, anyone with a snowblower - help out your neighbor - anyone with four wheel drive vehicle with plow - help out anyone that needs help. I wish you all the best, hang in there. People up north are aching for the snow you received - our snowmobiles are sitting in yard, wish we could help you out.

Anybody following footsforecast.org? They got it right before the weather service and they're predicting a foot or more this time. Mabye NOAA should check with them!

Another 10 inches? Oy Vey!!! I spent 4 hours shoveling yesterday. This is all new for someone who grew up in Phx, AZ.

I do agree time for some more guiness!!!!!

There are some positive aspects to getting "snowed" in. I'm getting to spend more quality time with my significant other who is getting ready to deploy, I get more time to prepare to for a civil lawsuit that was canceled because of the courts being closed, and have time to promote my online businesses. Let's make the best of what ever MOther Nature brings us!

Is it just me or do the weather forecasters just report weather and not predict it anymore? And what's with two weather people on in the morning? So they can get it wrong twice? And since when does square dancing have anything to do with weather?

So much for Global Warming!!

Ughhhh this snow is getting on my nerves. I don't know how people can put up with this mess.....I hate it, just hate it....I hope we have a blistering hot summer, like the ones in Arizona.

Frank
What's the record for February snowfall in Maryland (western Maryland excepted)? What's the tally so far? Thanks

FR: The record for Baltimore is 40.5 inches, in February 2003 - also the snowiest month ever. We stand now at 29.7 inches for this month. Eleven inches of new snow will set a new record for February, or any month, and also for a single season in B'more. And You Are There. .

I bet that after the next blast Pat Robertson will go on the 700 club and say we went against God and now we are getting punished for it....lol

Bring it on. Its about time we had a decent winter in Maryland! Besides my area only got about 16" of snow this last round.... didnt even cover the top of the car bumpers unless you measure drifts.

I was raised in Vermont ,and always grew up with huge storms like this . I feel like the state of Maryland would benefit if they allowed Vermont to come down and show them how to do snow removal the right way . I am not saying that under the circumstances they have not done their best but global warming is a huge thing now and the east is starting to get what the north usually gets . Call the Governor of Vt and ask for help they have lots of plows and lots of manpower they will help if they are asked im positive .

Shelley, a more than enough snow welcome to the East Coast. Flagstaff's only 3 hours from you, they get more snow at times than the entire East Coast- from NC northward, that is.

that much snow really stinks there is no where to put it !!!!

LET TI SNOW ,LET IT SNOW,LET IT SNOW.
LOVE THAT SNOW,THATS WHATS UP!

We just picked up some milk, eggs (Omega 3's always) and x2 low-fat hamburger for a misc receipe my wife is cooking - and 5 6's of Stones and Avery's IPA plus large Kahlua and Vodka - power is on (thank you God) and we have extra soup and whathave you in the pantry - hope everyone hangs in there - hopefully warmer weather is on the way!! we left West Palm Beach for this????

TOO MUCH SNOW!!!!! NO MORE NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I agree. No more snow. couldn't believe state government was open today with liberal leave for non essential employees when federal was closed.

I got a feelin' the storks in the area will be making a lot of deliveries this November.

Hey Frank thanks for the update. I love your weather blog. I love the snow it just makes everything look clean again especially in Baltimore city.

i dont think we could handle another 10-20 inches...i live in a court and it was insane this last time.A plow truck actually block the court until we called baltimore county and got a truck to get in here an salt and almost every back road has been half a$$ed plowed. thanks but no thanks its bad when people have to take a snow blower to clear the middle of the road.

Baltimore City should be ashame of themself on how they handled this snow removal, reaaly bad

OMG!! I can't take anymore snow. My spine nearly snapped in half and I think I lost my right arm after shoveling all day Saturday. I wish I could get paid 6 figures to guess at multi-million dollar equipment weather models. I feel like I've been stuck in the movie The Shining with no end in sight. God, please send me somewhere warm, with crystal blue water, and massages at the beach.

I LOVE SNOW. I grew up in the Finger Lakes region of NY. We used to get snow like this all the time. When I moved to MD and we barely got any I was disappointed. This past winter has been a blessing from Mother Nature. Bring It On!!!!

used to make fun of all of those people who ran to the store to get bread and milk!!!???

I should have stayed in Senegal for another 2 weeks. Why did I come back? Well, All i can say is --- "BRING IT ON"..

DEAN MARTIN SAID IT BEST LET IT SNOW LET IT SNOW. I GUESS I NEED TO GO TO THE LIQUOR STORE A MAN HAS NEEDS YOU KNOW. WHERE THE HELL ARE WE GOING TO PUT ALL THE SNOW, MATBE THE STATE HOUSE SO THOSE CLOWNS BEEN SNOWING US FOR YEARS. MAYBE SHELIA DIXON CAN MAKE THE SNOW DISAPEAR LIKE THE GIFT CARDS I CAN DREAM CANT I

We should really think of those who endure daily pain and suffering, or those in places such as Haiti before and after the earthquake, or the victims of Katrina, our American Soliders at war, etc. Life is what you make it, this snow is but a minor inconvenience if you look at the big picture !!

Yes, Flagstaff always got lots more snow than MD which surprised me when I first moved here 10 years ago because I grew up thinking the East coast got snow like this all the time in the winter but as the years passed and I got used to the little snow we get, I am just like many of you..cant handle all this snow at all! LOL!

Besides, going to Flagstaff for a day of snow fun isnt the same as living in it. I am living in it now and it is all new to me. LOL!

Hope everyone has checked there roofs. There has been a lot of cave ins and much more expected. I am having mine checked tomorrow by a contractor. ( do not attempt this yourself) Have fun with the snow while it lasts cause it will be gone soon and summer will be here and then we will complain how hot it is!!!

Susan F,
If Baltimore (and MD) had this kind of snow every year, then they would have the quantity of equipment for their size that Vermont has for its size. But the MD localities have the equipment for the typical snowfall we have. To purchase all the equipment needed to handle the atypical snow storms like the two so far this year would mean paying out tens (possibly hundreds) of millions of dollars for equipment that would hardly be used most years.

And asking the Vermont Governor for plows and manpower would be futile since that would leave Vermont under-equipped if they got hit with a large snow storm and I doubt Vermont residents would appreciate that.

What all the fuss about shoveling snow?

I just paid somedude $20 to clean my car, and plow my driveway.


As far as the next storm brewing, (upward of 30"), I just have to say:

BRING IT ON

Global Warming. It's coming.

It's not Global Warming - it should be called Global Climate Change. Some places will get cooler (for instance Northern Europe, because of the shutdown of the Gulf Stream); some places will get warmer (Alaska, Canada, Siberia, Greenland); some places will get more rain and some will get less. Deserts will grow or shrink; storms will usually be more powerful; daytime highs will rise some, but nighttime lows will be a LOT warmer (and it's already happening).

Yes, the GLOBAL temperature will be warmer, but not all places will be warmer.

I wish I was back home to experience all this amazing snow! I lived in Baltimore for 18 years, joined the Army and left for 3 years. Then I got stationed back in MD for 2 years from Oct 07 to Oct 09 and we barely got any snow. Now I leave and move overseas and we are getting snow storm after snow storm. I am so sad. It's ok, one day I will experience the beauty of the blizzards in Baltimore.

I moved to Baltimore City last weekend - my second weekend, second snowstorm! Thanks to the snowstorm(s), I've met all of my awesome neighbors, who keep shoveling and shoveling and digging each other out. It's been great - I love Baltimore!

FR: Great to hear. Good for us. Thanks.

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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