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February 11, 2010

Good morning! Flakes in the forecast ... Sorry

I really hate to do this to you while we're still dealing with that mess outside. But there are more snowflakes in our forecast. Really.

The National Weather Service, is calling for a 30 percent chance of snow developing Sunday night and continuing (50 percent chance) into Monday, Presidents' Day. Here's how they're describing it four days out:

"THE NEXT SHOT AT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE [FORECAST AREA] IS IN THE LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ... PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE [FORECAST AREA] LATE SUNDAY AND SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.SNow on the Weatherdeck

"THE LOW CENTER SHOULD CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE ALL SNOW...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE WITH THE TRACK/TIMING OF THE LOW CENTER."

And that's it from Sterling. Way too soon for NWS predictions on snow accumulations. Here's how AccuWeather.com's MeteoMadness blogger Henry Margusity calls it. (Parenthetical words are mine, for clarification.)

"Clipper comes down late [in] the weekend and early next week. Clipper will spread snow from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. GFS [a computer model that did well with the last storm] blows the storm up Monday night and hits Maryland, southern PA, northern Virginia and NJ with more snow. Looks like a 4-8 incher this time. It does want to take the snow up to New England, but given the block and the lack of storms into New England, I am not ready for that yet.... I am confident that places that have been getting the snow will once again get the snow..."

Mr. Foot and his weary student crew have not yet weighed in on the Presidents' Day storm. We all hope to hear from them when they regroup.

Stay tuned for the latest numbers on the Feb. 9-10 storm, and the season to date.

(SUN PHOTO/JammieCam photo by Frank Roylance/Morning on the WeatherDeck)

Posted by Frank Roylance at 6:33 AM | | Comments (19)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

Frank im waving the white flag at least custer was scalped were buried alive ill see you after the thaw ha ha . I know your a weather historian is this the worst winter in maryland history.

FR: Worst? Not sure. I can remember some terribly icy winters. But this is the snowiest.

Worse than any winter you had in New Bedford, Frank?

FR: I think so.

Agreed, Frank. And between the two, I'll take snow over ice every time.


I can see Russia from my house.

Passing Dickie Gifford's hilarious comment on to my entire mailing list! Thank you, DG!

(Captcha: derision popular)

Is this the best Mother nature can do? 4-8 inches? Ha! I've cleared out my driveway twice and now I'm great at shoveling on both sides of my body!

I'm just getting warmed up! Let's dance...

cigarjon,
You're better off waving an orange cone. I don't think the white flag will be seen.

I don't know; it's gotten to the point where when they even mention the word "snow" I start gearing up for at least another foot. :p

(Captcha: brueghel for... well, what is this brueghel for?)

When the world shifts it's rotation in 2012, God has decided that the Maryland/Pennsylvania area will be the New North Pole. Just a practice run right now, the real Snowmageddon is a couple of years away!

Jammiecam, Frank? Glad to see you have retained your sense of humor!

So, the next storm only promises 4-8 inches? Pooh, that's whimpy stuff! Those folks in New England, Michigan, Alaska and Antartica think THEY can deal with snow...we'll show 'em who are the REAL snow survivors.

I think I'm simply going to get on I95 and keep driving till the temps reach 70.

1994 Baltimore,- Ice storms week after week. Parked cars sliding on the TV Hill parking lot. I watched it raining while it was 13 degrees out, coating my vehicle with an 1-1/2 of ice. I'll take the snow over the ice any winter.

This mornings GFS came in much lighter with only 0.13" liquid for BWI or what would be about 2" of snow for the Monday night system.

The Canadian, UK and ECMET either miss us completely or are also light.

This system will be a northern stream clipper like system with very limited moisture, unlike our last four storms.

The GFS yesterday had allowed the system to hang around the coast long enough to draw in Atlantic moisture . That isn't happening to the same extent in the morning model run.

Looks more like a 1-3" winter weather advisory (or less) coating than a 4-8" winter storm warning type event.

Let's form a posse and hunt down that Groundhog....it's all his fault!!!!! ha ha ha

Miss Kitty - you can't be a real snow survivor and flee down I-95 to warmer temps. A survivor sticks it out no matter what the situation is. Besides 4-8 inches is pooh-pooh compared to what is already on the ground. Stay here where the real fun is. With a few sunny days coming up (after this next storm), you can pull out the beach chair, get a suntan and grill some steaks for a hungry snowplow driver.

I predicted 13 inches for Annapolis for this past storm. I think we actually got around 11. The one good thing is that we never lost power or the cable. This morning we were able to get the snow out of the driveway pretty easily.

All in all I think the county and state have done a great job in clearing the roads. There's always a reason to complain. But these road crews really are heroes as far as I am concerned. They have been working a lot of hours in awful conditions. They should be commended.

Dr. Foot and his crew were off on this storm because they ended up predicting like 25 inches.

I'm going to predict 3-4 inches for Annapolis for this Alberta Clipper.

Not always but it's been my experience that bad weather that starts here will end up in Baltimore a few days later. It rained here pretty hard yesterday so I'm thinking that the forecast is spot on correct. By the way, Sunday will bring 75 degree weather to Southern California so I'm thinking your misery will be over by late next week. :)

I came in from shoveling and found out I was half blind from the sun reflecting off all the snow. Should have wore shades.

What was it, 1994, 1995? I seem to remember really cold temperatures, like ~minus 12 degrees at night and daytime highs in the teens, for close to a week. Luckily no snow but didn't we have lots of ice then? Anyone remember this?

"Worse than any winter you had in New Bedford, Frank?

FR: I think so."

First, thanks for this blog, I've been reading and recommending it for awhile.

Second, your bio states that you left New Bedford, MA, in 1980. Were you there in '78? If so, do you remember the Blizzard of '78?

That blizzard roared in around rush hour on a typical workday, trapping people overnight in cars that quickly became snowbound on major highways. It created ocean flooding, which devastated homes and businesses along the shoreline. We weren't allowed back on the roads for a week. The Blizzard of '78 also took many lives.

This past week's snow was amazing, something Marlyanders will remember forever. But when comparing it to MA's Blizzard of '78, we got lucky.

FR: Agreed.

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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