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February 10, 2010

Blizzard Warnings up; this storm's not over yet

As many in Central Maryland wake up to light snow or none in the air this morning, with only a few inches on the ground, it might be tempting to conclude - to wish - that this storm is over. Not so fast.

The National Weather Service predicted a lull in the action during the night as one phase of the storm ended and the next cranked up.

NOAAMany in the region were seeing that before dawn today. The snow had stopped, or continued with very fine, wet flakes. And that has prompted Sterling to reduce predicted storm totals for portions of the forecast area, especially to the south of Baltimore.

Said Eric the Red, a professional forecaster in Baltimore:

"Wow.  I just cleared my driveway.  Holy crap!

"We had sleet for about an hour last night, and some folks actually went to freezing rain.  That was courtesy of the "northern" low pulling warmer air up aloft on its southern and eastern side.  Once the coastal low started to spin, it countered by pulling cold air aloft back south... and we went back to snow. ... Snow will continue into the eve... ~ 7 pm east of the Blue Ridge. Marginally good news... the wind forecast has come down a hair... but still strong."

Forecasters insist that the heaviest snow, colder temperatures and winds gusting as high as 50 mph are still on the way later this morning and early this afternoon. The Winter Storm Warnings still call for 10 to 20 inches by the time the thing winds down this afternoon.

AccuWeather.com agrees: "Residents along the Interstate 95 corridor from Washington, D.C., to Boston may be able to get to work this morning. Traveling home, however, could prove impossible. Flight and mass transit delays and cancellations are sure to mount as heavy, wind-whipped snow dangerously drops visibility and clogs roads and runways. The weight of the snow will make shoveling strenuous for many people, and could cause more roof failures..."

Indeed, the barometer was very low (29.32 in. on the WeatherDeck) and still falling at daybreak today. Ditto at The Sun's weather station at Calvert and Centre streets. Watch that barometer, and when it heads back up again, that's when we'll be on our way out of this thing.

Forecasters at the Baltimore-Washington Forecast Office in Sterling have hoisted Blizzard Warnings (red on the map) for Baltimore, its suburban counties and the northern tier of Maryland counties from Allegany east to Cecil. Similar warnings are in effect this morning for the Upper Shore counties, all of Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey, New York City and Long Island.

UPDATE 8 a.m.: The Blizzard Warnings have been expanded to Washington and its Md. and Va. suburbs.

UPDATED UPDATE, 10 a.m.: The warnings now cover the entire state.

Here's a bit of this morning's forecast discussion:

"THE TRUE DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL GEAR-UP IN THE COMING HOURS THIS MORNING...AS THE UPPER LOW SHOOTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE [FORECAST AREA] AND THE COASTAL LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST.

"EARLY INDICATIONS OF WHAT'S IN STORE AS THESE ELEMENTS COME TOGETHER
OVER THE AREA CAN BE SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR...W/ A SURFACE TROUGH [LOW] THAT ISNOAA
QUICKLY SLIDING THRU WV...NOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL APPALCHIANS AND WILL
SHORTLY BE MOVING INTO THE I-81 CORRIDOR. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35KT
COMMON W/ THE PASSAGE...ALONG W/ ABOUT A 10-15 DEGREE TEMPERATURE
DROP
AND A DECENT PRESSURE SURGE ... 

"AS THIS FEATURE TRUDGES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATER INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HRS...THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION LAYER THAT GAVE PARTS OF THE REGION
A MIXED PRECIP REGIME OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED W/ A COLD
AIRMASS AND DRIER AIR
... 

"CURRENTLY...SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT-MODERATE SNOW FILLING-IN OVER
MUCH OF THE [FORECAST AREA] BEHIND THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY FROM LATE LAST
NIGHT...THAT HAS SINCE MOVED UP INTO NJ/SRN NY. BETWEEN THE
My brideAPPROACHING UPPER LOW AND THE DEEPENING COASTAL LOW WILL BE AN AXIS
OF HIGHER MOISTURE INFLUX AND LIFT...LEADING TO BANDING OF SNOW
ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF NRN VA-ERN MD LATER THIS MORNING.

"ONCE THIS FEATURE SETS-UP...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP /ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MD/. HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES AND STRONGER WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THESE
AREAS...AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN HRS.

"THE SNOW BAND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD DELMARVA INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL START TO TAPER OFF ACROSS THE
CWA THRU THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING HRS."

We have 6.5 inches of new snow on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville this morning. Most of that fell before 9:30 p.m., and what's falling now (just before 6 a.m.) is very fine and light. UPDATE: By 7 a.m., moderate snowfall has resumed.

UPDATE: at 8:30 a.m. we're at 8.5 inches, but my bride (left) is making it go away.

It's a little early for the morning snow accumulation reports. Here are some reported to the National Weather Service. CoCoRaHS reports are also starting to come in.

Hey ... Maybe it IS over. Wouldn't that be nice?

Posted by Frank Roylance at 5:30 AM | | Comments (10)
Categories: Forecasts
        

Comments

On the bright side...pitchers and catchers report to the Orioles' camp on Feb 17. Assuming they can get through the snow, of course!

No power (we have a generator)

Light dusting?! I easily have about 20 inches now.

cars completely covered

I'm worried about all roofs at this point.

Are they being mean, really mean when they say snow, Sunday.

I'm hoping to get out Saturday

FR: Sunny and 32 in Baltimore Sunday, though far western Maryland may see lake effect snow all week.

Very informative. Thanks for the thurough report. I havn't been able to find such comprehensive weather coverage of this storm respective to Baltimore anywhere else on the web. Even the NWC info is sparse. Thanks.

In news articles and readers' comments, I keep seeing these comparisons made with other cities re snowfall totals over an entire season. This isn't an entire season for us. It's a whopping, incapacitating amount all at once. First on Feb 5-6 and now on Feb 9-10. There's no comparison.

We're getting that oft-cited 75 inches in just 5 days. Not spread out over a whole winter. Not even the Twin Cities, not Buffalo, not Syracuse, not Erie, not any major urban area has to deal with that.

My heart goes out to those people who've lost power, and especially to utility repair crews. They are operating in unbelievably dangerous conditions. If you see any of them in your neighborhood, please offer them hot coffee, tea, chocolate, whatever.

Our weather station has a barometric pressure of 29.25 at 8 a.m. ...Lower than we had any time in the last storm.

FR: WeatherDeck now at 29.28 in.

Here in Glen Arm the snow was heavy last night, continued much of the night and we have over 12" as of 8:10 AM. The barometric pressure is still falling (29.23) and the snow fall is even worse - hope it quits soon or all my digging will be reburried.

Sunny beautiful, 50 degree's in Seattle today. No snow, little rain later today! Glad I moved from Annapolis years ago!

FR: Thanks for that. Praying that Mt. Ranier won't erupt and spoil your day.

Lots of snow fell overnight up here in York County, PA. But it's hard to find a decent weather report up here, Mr. Roylance. Wish you had a twin brother who could come work for the York Daily Record...

68 and sunny here in Vero Beach, FL. Did I pick a good time to take a vaca or what? Just hoping the roof of my townhouse isn't caved in by all the snow when I get home.......

WOW! Glad I moved from Hudson Street in Canton to Tampa, Fla last month! 60 and sunny! That is gonna take awhile to digout/melt

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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