"Accumulating snow is likely ..."
Just as Central Maryland begins to shake off the asterisk-laden "record-breaking" snowstorm that struck Friday and Saturday, we turn to face yet more "accumulating snow" forecasters say will reach us Tuesday and Wednesday. Some models suggest we could see as much as another 10 inches. More or less
Yes, my weary diggers, the National Weather Service is advising us of "accumulating wintry precipitation," beginning sometime after noon on Tuesday. The chances, for now, are rated at 60 percent for Tuesday, rising to 70 percent Tuesday night and fading to 30 percent Wednesday.
The folks at Sterling, as is their policy, are not yet venturing accumulation totals. Storm tracks and rain lines remain pretty uncertain. But this morning's forecast discussion describes this new storm in a way that sounds a bit like the one that struck here Friday, except not as intense.:
"HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. ...THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THESE SYSTEMS WOULD PHASE AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW STRONG THE COASTAL LOW WILL GET BEFORE MOVING OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.
"EITHER WAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THESE SYSTEMS PHASE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
"ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FROM NEAR THE CITIES OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM BECAUSE A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TIMING OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS
PHASING TOGETHER WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR."
Okay, so that's the NWS. Our newest professional contributor, Eric the Red, is thinking the new storm will clock in with something like 4 to 8 inches of new snow. Says he:
"Models are showing a very disturbing trend for Tuesday. They more or less replay this storm, but with a bit less precipitation. The latest GFS [a forecast model] as well as last night's Canadian and NOGAPS [more models] show an upper-air low approaching from the west, while a secondary low forms to our south and moves to the Mid-Atlantic coast. At this early juncture, this kinda has a 4-8" look to it... with the BIG snow headed for New England.
'Some prelim models...
'WRF - Has secondary low forming at the mouth of the Chesapeake and moving slowly up the coast, with liquid equivalent (QPF - which stands for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) of 0.50-1.00"... which if all snow would be a 5-10". The bulls eye is east of DC.
'RSM - Same idea, but begins to drift the storm back down the coast at the end of its forecast cycle. QPF is 0.50-1.00 (5-10"), with a bulls eye in northeast MD.
'PSU-Eta - Same idea, but as the energy jumps from the Ohio Valley to the MD coast, the pcp misses us. We've seen this happen before... so it's not out of the question. QPF - less than 0.10... with little if any snow.
'Canadian - Ouch. Winds up another stem winder off the Delmarva coast, and punds the region with another not-quite-as-bad big hitter... say 8-16".
NOGAPS: a bit farther offshore, but still paints the area with a modest snowfall.
'GFS - The 12z [latest] is not in yet, but last night's 00z run (7 pm w/balloon data) is disturbing... with a strong secondary low forming at the mouth of the Chesapeake and movg slowly northeast. The GFS' QPF is over an inch for central MD... indicating a Canadian-model-like 8-16"
'Still time to sort all this out, but needless to say, another 1 footer would be a back breaker fer sure. I'll keep ya posted. Right now, as I mentioned before, if I had to pick a number... 4-8", with precipitation starting Tues afternoon and lasting into Weds morning."
UPDATE, 11 a.m., from Eric the Red: 7 am/w balloon data: GFS clobbers us. It has 1 to 2" liquid... which if all snow, would be another blizzard.... 10-20". In all honesty, let's hope that doesn't happen. I like snow... but even I have my limits. EAccuWeather.com doesn't have a snow map out yet for our part of the country. But their MeteoMadness blogger, Henry Margusity, seems to be putting the deepest snows to our north, leaving us in a 3- to 6-inch zone.
doesn't have a snow map out yet for our part of the country. But their MeteoMadness blogger, , seems to be putting the deepest snows to our north, leaving us in a 3- to 6-inch zone.Mr. Foot's Forecast hasn't gone there yet, but they do seem to be anticipating 4 inches or more. Hope to hear from his team soon.
(SUN PHOTOS/Frank Roylance/Path to my door/Claire Cohn - Thanks!)
Comments
Go PSU go.
Posted by: SXS | February 7, 2010 11:42 AM
Foot's "FIrst Call": 6-12
http://www.footsforecast.org/2010/01/winter-stormcast-zone-february-2010.html
Posted by: Nick | February 7, 2010 11:45 AM
Sheesh. Mother Nature. Give us a break!
Posted by: ho co sub | February 7, 2010 11:55 AM
Where is AL GORE whe you need some GLOBAL WARMING! LOL What a joke Al is. But maybe not he made milllions with lies and BS.
Just like Y2K!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Don't dirnk the Global Warming Koolaid!!
Don't be a AL GORE FOOL!! Look at the facts.
Have youe ever heard of Sun Spots!
Posted by: Fil Ferrauto | February 7, 2010 12:06 PM
My family doesn't own a snowblower, and even if you own one, this is still excessive! And the CPC paints below-normal temperatures for the next two weeks, meaning no hint of spring until after the 20th. And with all this snowpack, flooding could be severe this year, especially if the big thaw holds off until March followed by a big rainmaker.
Posted by: Michael | February 7, 2010 1:18 PM
Uh, Global Warming is just that GLOBAL. It doesn't mean "warming where ever I happen to be." Warming means more moisture in the atmosphere which means more extreme precipitation. In the winter, that equals more snow.
FR: Bless you.
Posted by: Luqman | February 7, 2010 2:24 PM
Re: Fil Serrauto's comments:
Ever hear of climate change? Instead of global warming it really should be called climate change. It's all about colder winters, warmer summers, and extreme weather...
We'll see if you believe it in 20 years...
Posted by: Jeff | February 7, 2010 3:11 PM
winter storm watch inefect. 2 pm tues.-4 pm weds. accuweather has a map and it has us under the imobilized section for snow.
Posted by: andrew in havre de grace | February 7, 2010 3:38 PM
Gee, funny how people who ARE used to a lot of snow behave more responsibly and sensibly than those who aren't (but who still brag nonetheless!):
But residents apparently listened when advised by officials to stay safe by staying put.
"We really don't have any accidents because people are taking heed to the fact that they can't get out," said Susan Griffith, spokeswoman for the county's Emergency Management Agency. "And nothing's open anyway."
Road crews in Westmoreland County struggled to dig out of snow that on average was 18 inches in the western part of the county and nearly 3 feet atop Laurel Ridge to the east, said Daniel Stevens, a county spokesman. Jackknifed tractor-trailer trucks also shut down traffic on the Pennsylvania Turnpike.
Snow cleared from roads had to be piled high against utility poles, he said. With evening approaching, those piles were complicating efforts by utility crews to get close enough to those poles to make repairs.
"There was a period of time [Saturday] morning when we had fire trucks, snow plow trucks, ambulances and everything else stuck," Mr. Stevens said of the road conditions. "It was bad."
Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/10038/1034207-258.stm#ixzz0etdQaMFh
Posted by: Lisa Simeone | February 7, 2010 3:40 PM
Amazing -- and amusing -- to realize that the same people who are shouting "global warming!" now were telling us a mere 20-30 years ago to prepare for another ice age. As surveys of distant planets uninhabited by man prove, we puny humans have very little to do with planetary climate systems. As Fil says, don't drink the Kool-Aid.
Posted by: Kevin | February 8, 2010 10:38 AM
20 years or more Americans can beleive almost anything if it is in writing or if Ophra says so. What ever happened to Global cooling and the next Ice age?
LOOK at the facts Not the BS that liberals ram down your throat. Remember it's about control and taxes not the climate. Don't drink the KOOLAID it could kill your freedom!
Be a real American not mindless dummy.
I could use some Global warming right now Because I'm freezoing my a_ _.
I'll just throw another log on the fire and deal with it.
Don't be a dummy Be a Patriot Love America not the government.
Small government means more opportunities for the individual American. Love America I Do, do YOU?.
Fil Ferrauto a real AMERICA!
Posted by: Fil Ferrauto | February 14, 2010 10:17 AM