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February 3, 2010

3 to 6 inches was on the money

We had a hard time measuring the snow on the WeatherDeck this morning because I forgot to clear away the old snow. But looking at the CoCoRaHS report this morning, it looks like the NWS forecasters out at Sterling got this one about right - 3 to 6 inches.

Here's a sampling:Light snow

Bryan's Road, Charles County: 6.0 inches

Long Green, Baltimore Co.:  5.9 inches

Mt. Airy, Carroll:  5.7 inches

Clarksburg, Montgomery:  5.5 inches

Severn, Arundel:  5.1 inches

Columbia, Howard:  5.0 inches

Hamilton, Baltimore City:  4.5 inches

Kingsville, Harford:  4.3 inches

Taneytown, Carroll:  4.0 inches

Towson, Baltimore:  3.0 inches

Another pretty snowfall, filling the trees but easy to shovel and yielding to salt on the streets. And the kids will get to school today, mostly, if a bit late.

But it was just the appetizer. We still have the main course - the weekend storm - to deal with. Here's the Hazardous Weather Outlook from the folks out at Sterling:

"FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A STORM SYSTEM HAS TO POTENTIAL TO
AccuWeather.comPRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
STORM...SO PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
"

Sterling is offering no accumulation predictions yet. Too early. But the forecast is putting the chance of snow at 90 percent for Friday night at BWI-Marshall, and 80 percent on Saturday. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s Friday night, and the lower 30s on Saturday.

Up at AccuWeather.com, they've got Central Maryland in the 6- to 12-inch band for this storm (map), but we're darn close to some 12- to 18-inch territory to our west.

Mr. Foot and his team are much more optimistic (or is it pessimistic?) about this storm. "This storm will not be for the faint of heart," says he. He puts the accumulations at 12 to 24 inches, depending on where and when the snow line sets up.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 9:41 AM | | Comments (16)
Categories: Winter weather
        

Comments

So disappointing that all of the biggies are occuring on the weekend...sigh.

Kingsville is in Baltimore county, not Harford county

FR: You're right, of course. The CoCoRaHS list specifies the station is in Harford, 2.5 miles NNE of Kingsville. I shortened it to "Kingsville," without changing the county.

I wish these people wouldn't put their predicted snowfall totals out there so far ahead of time, when all it seems to do is work people up into a tizzy. Shouldn't just a prediction for snow with a warning about the possibility of substantial snow be enough for now?

FR: Precisely the NWS forecasters' reasoning, and the reason why they got so much heat from readers for NOT guessing early on the snow depths. They can't win either way. I also find it telling that people who are so quick to pound forecasters when they get it wrong, say nothing when they get it right, which they did yesterday, and do most of the time.

The predictions I heard on WTOP, in newspapers and on several news stations initially called for 1 inch. They then changed it to 1-2" then 2-4. They finally settled on 3-6. So, if you call that getting it right (as it is falling), ok. But they never fail to amaze me at how inept they can be at predicting storms. I know it is tough but I actually predicted the last one being bigger than was forecast and was only 2" off on this one...with no equipment or training.

How they get paid to be wrong so often is beyond me.

BTW, they did not even get the totals for Howard right after it fell, which is where I live. I shoveled at least 6" if not 7 " this morning before work. Certainly was more than 5". I do give them credit when they get the temp right though.

FR: Was it 6 inches everywhere in Howard? Did you actually measure? Or maybe it was 5 inches in some places, 7 in others. How much resolution do you want with your forecasts? Down to your block? Let's be reasonable.

I just wish people would stop complaining about snow in general, and that the news would stop making a big deal about it. For crying out loud--it's winter! If you don't like snow, move to Florida. If it snows, drive like you've got half a brain, and don't venture out if your vehicle isn't capable of the conditions. End of story. We don't need all-day news coverage and panic shopping every time we get more than an inch.

FR: Sorry. This is Baltimore.

I would like the forecast detailed down to my driveway; to include number of inches and snow density. That way I can judge my future snow shoveling work load. 7 inches of light and fluffy less effort then 5 inches of heavy wet snow. Thanks in advanced and keep up the good work.

And to top it off, next Tuesday has another snow storm for us on the Horizon.

For crying out loud. Its not an exact science. Storms do change paths and not 100% predictable. You predict 2 inches and get 26 (Feb 1966), well, that's what you can say is a big mistake. But, to get 5 instead of 6. I bet if you took your yard stick and made measurements in various spots of your yard, you would not get the same amount.

Have you checked out the latest update from Mr. Foot!? I love reading their forecasts because they do put it all out there! My favorite part of their statement is:

We are not making this up. Please consider the impact this situation could have on your family, students, schools and property, and make the necessary arrangements if you believe the data is not lying.

*** end of statement ***

Seriously, you aren't making this up???? Something about that statement just cracks me up.

Frankly, I hope we get this big one, even though I'll be doing a lot of shoveling. For the kids, it will last into the week and the kids will still miss at least a couple days of school. Thank heavens Baltimore County has been opening late and trying to preserve the snow days for when they are really needed.

They got it right? NWS called it at 1:00 yesterday. Before that it was a dusting or an inch. This was after eveyone was at work or school and had their plans around little impact.

I disagree with NWS lack of forecasting snow amounts to far in the future. Part of the purpose of forecasts is public safety. This applies to traveling or having the right resources available to deal with potential impacts.

Who cares? Make sure you have the must haves at home and stay the heck off the roads, unless there is an emergency!

Steve said: "drive like you've got half a brain, and don't venture out if your vehicle isn't capable of the conditions"

Nice rant. But, if it snows, I would rather people drive like they have a whole brain! There are already enough folks out there driving with half a brain.

Also, it's not the vehicle that matters as much as the driver. during the recent "Christmas" storm, I easily drove up a hill, past a stuck Hummer and a Lincoln Navigator...driving my diesel VW Golf!

Never in my life have I seen people work themselves into a frenzy when snow is forecast. Satellite, radar...it' all a crap shoot.

As FR stated, this is baltimore. Snow sends people into a panic. Maybe O'maggott can get money for Barry O to do a governmental study as to the reaction of people in baltimore to snow!!

Hey, if it gives you a job, Gaius, I'm all for it.

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About Frank Roylance
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page.

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