AccuWeather's Bastardi calls for 15 inches more snow
I couldn't resist this one: Joe Bastardi, the winter weather prognosticator up at AccuWeather.com, says Baltimore should expect another 15 to 20 inches of snow in the weeks ahead as the winter of 2009-2010 turns cold again in February.
"I believe the physical drivers are all there for a major cold month, much like this December was," 
Bastardi said.
Especially in the Tennessee and Ohio valleys and the mid-Appalachians, he said, winter will come back with renewed vigor. "It may very well turn into a blend of February '07 and February '03, which were the most extreme Februarys we've had in the last 15 years, " he said.
As for Baltimore, we should expect above-average snowfall in February, and below-average temperatures. We're already well above the average for the seasonal snowfall at BWI. But Bastardi says we should see another 15 to 20 inches on top of that.
Although January is, statistically, our snowiest month, eight of our top-20 snowstorms have clustered around the second and third weeks in February. (See table below)
Bastardi's forecast counts on a return of arctic air masses to the eastern United States as early as next week, combined with the active, El Nino-driven southern storm track that has repeatedly produced West Coast and Gulf storms that have swept up the east coast. That can be a formula for snow in Baltimore.
UPDATE: Mr. Foot, too, is taking note of impending cold weather. His site notes a near-record high barometric reading in Mongolia - 32.00 inches, with low temperatures of 50 to 70-below zero. "If a piece of that air to were to work across the pole, someone better tell Tom Hanks to fire up the Polar Express once again!" he writes. Earlier post resumes below...
Last fall, Bastardi predicted the coldest, snowiest winter in Maryland since the snow-choked winter of 2002-03. He's already right about the snow. At 25 inches, we've bested the seasonal totals for the last six years, and matched precisely his autumn forecast for the entire season in Baltimore. The 30-year average is 18.2 inches.
On the other hand, Bastardi also forecast that this winter would get off to a late start: "I would say that we will remember more what happens in January and February than in December," he stated back in October. Oops. December was the snowiest on record for Baltimore.
But he could still be right about February. We'll just have to wait and see.
The U.S. Climate Prediction Center, meanwhile, shows no clear trends for February's weather, either temperatures or precipitation.
| 1 | 28.2 inches ... Feb. 15-18, 2003 | 11 | 14.1 inches ... Dec. 11-12, 1960 |
| 2 | 26.5 inches ... Jan. 27-29, 1922 | 12 | 13.1 inches ... Feb. 11-12, 2006 |
| 3 | 22.8 inches ... Feb. 11, 1983 | 13 | 13.0 inches ... Mar. 5-7, 1962 |
| 4 | 22.5 inches ... Jan. 7-8, 1996 | 14 | 12.3 inches ... Jan. 22, 1987 |
| 5 | 22.0 inches ... Mar. 29-30, 1942 | 15 | 12.1 inches ... Jan. 30-31, 1966 |
| 6 | 21.4 inches ... Feb. 11-14, 1899 | 16 | 12.0 inches ... Feb. 16-18, 1900 |
| 7 | 20.0 inches ... Feb. 18-19, 1979 | 17 | 11.9 inches ... Mar. 13-14, 1993 |
| 8 | 16.0 inches ... Mar. 15-18, 1892 | 18 | 11.7 inches ... Feb. 5-8, 1899 |
| 9 | 15.5 inches ... Feb. 15, 1958 | 19 | 11.5 inches ... Dec. 17-18, 1932 |
| 10 | 14.9 inches ... Jan. 25, 2000 | 20 | 11.5 inches ... Mar. 21-22, 1964 |
Comments
YIPPEEE!!!
Posted by: NotableM | January 22, 2010 5:51 PM
Hot diggity dog! Or should I say, cold diggity dog! Hope he's right. I say let winter be winter. We know there'll be plenty of days 50-plus degrees or more later in the year, but this is the only time of year we'll see the frosty stuff. Bring it on!
Posted by: Todd | January 22, 2010 5:57 PM
Frank, I think you're wrong about Bastardi predicting a late start to the winter. Didn't he say it was going to be a "December to remember?" I think this guy has been dead on with his winter forecasts the last few years--although he is in climate change denial.
FR. Nope. I interiewed him in October and have the notes to prove it.
Posted by: Eve Redman | January 22, 2010 10:45 PM
Bummer.
So much for training for the Big Sur Marathon. How the heck am I going to be able to run 14-16 miles with that forecast? Parking garage? I get dizzy thinking about it.
Posted by: Runner | January 23, 2010 12:11 AM
Bastardi is seldom correct and is a pure hype machine. Every storm that has come near the coast he has pegged it to be a snow maker. We should have had already 50 inches of snow based on the way he hyped prior non storms this season. GOOD LUCK WITH THIS HYPE CALL!
Posted by: Snowdrift | January 23, 2010 12:49 AM
Poppycock. I have it on good authority that we are done with snow for the year and our weather will be mild until summer.
Relax, wash your car, get the yard equipment ready. Start breaking out summer clothes. You'll be glad you did.
Posted by: Nearest Star | January 23, 2010 1:35 AM
This morning at 8 am my husband and I observed a huge flight of snowgeese high overhead in Towson, heading north. There were several long V's of birds, at least several hundred , their quiet honking filling the morning air. My outdoorsman husband can not remember ever seeing snowgeese migrating north this early.
For whatever reason, it was beautiful. There is a second season on hunting snowgeese coming up; he thinks perhaps they heard about it and decided to leave!
Posted by: Snowbird | January 23, 2010 10:33 AM
So, this puts the lie to global warming once again.... no, when this lasts FOR AN ENTIRE SEASON almost..... it is not weather anymore, it is CLIMATE.
FR: Wrong again. If it lasts for decades, globally, it is climate. And for decades, globally, the numbers are going up, not down.
Posted by: Abresh | January 24, 2010 6:55 AM
And how is this "AN ENTIRE SEASON almost"? We're only just a little over a month into winter at this point and temps have been well above average for almost the last two weeks!
FR: Well, to be fair, we're a little more than halfway through the meteorological winter, which runs December through February. But you're right. While December was a little less than 2 degrees colder than the long-term average, January is running 0.7 degrees warmer. We could hit 60 today. We have a ways to go yet to see how this all averages out.
Posted by: Todd | January 25, 2010 10:09 AM
Er, I'm not seeing last December's 20.8 inches on your new chart. A snowfall to forget?? Thanks for hammering away (again!) at the global warming debunkers who insist on equating local, short-term "weather" with long-term, widespread and pervasive "climate" to further an ideology, evidence-be-damned!
FR: Thanks. The chart comes from the NWS. They're a bit slow updating their graphics. The December storm would rank No. 7, with a two-day total of 21.1 inches. It bumped an 11.5-inch March 1964 storm from the top-20..
Posted by: OnAvgABadStat | January 25, 2010 11:41 AM
As of 2/12/2010 we are almost at eighty inches in Baltimore and I dare say February's four days of govt. closures may well make Feb. 2010 more memorable than even Dec. 2009 for snow
Posted by: Dale | February 12, 2010 11:02 PM