What we saw this morning - lots of yesterday's melt water turned to hazardous ice - is pretty much what we'll see this week, until things finally warm a bit, and leave us with a rainy Christmas.

The good news is that daytime temperatures will, at least, get above freezing each day this week - into the mid-30s at BWI. And that, with sunshine, will help the melting process, especially on southern exposures.

(I pity my neighbors across the street, whose front walks face northwest. When my steps were drying in the sunshine Sunday, they were spreading ice-melt on theirs. On the other hand, I apparently have pretty poor insulation, and the icicles dripped all night, leaving an ice rink on my stoop this morning.)

The real problems will come overnight, with forecast lows in the teens at the airport, and colder in the usual cold spots. That will mean refreezing by morning, slippery walks and steps, and "black ice" on some roadways. So be careful out there.

So far this month, the airport is running more than a degree colder than the long-term average for December. We're also running well above average on moisture, with 5.92 inches of melted precipitation, which is 3.78 inches above the norm for the month to date.

But as the week progresses, a storm system now over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to move inland, toward the southern Rockies and the Southern Plains by mid-week. From there it will likely curve toward the northeast again, passing to our west as it heads into the Great Lakes.

That will put us on the warm side of the counter-clockwise circulation around the low, dragging warmer, wetter air out of the South. They're expecting the inland storm to generate a secondary low over the southeast Atlantic coast. That could trigger a "wintry mix" of precipitation here Thursday night, with freezing rain the biggest threat.

But the mild air from the south is expected to turn all of it to rain by morning, with a 70 percent chance for rain in Baltimore on Friday, Christmas Day. Highs will reach the 40s, if the forecast holds up.

Depending on how much snow is left on the ground by Thursday, and how much it rains, we could see some local flooding as rain and melting snow and ice  - on top of frozen ground - combine to leave a lot of water around. Make sure you clear any blocked storm drains.

Many will recall the heavy rains that followed the February 2003 storm by a week. I was out there in boots, scrambling to shovel a channel to the storm drain behind our homes so the rain and rising meltwater could flow down the swale and away from our back doors. What a torrent I created. I was soaked, but jeez it was fun.