Ida's remnant rain may stay mostly south of us
Forecasters at the National Weather Service's Sterling forecast office are wrestling with computer models that can't quite agree on how much of Ida's moisture will make it to Maryland this week.
Remnants of what was once the third hurricane of the 2009 season have crossed the Gulf Coast and swept inland, bringing heavy rains to parts of the Deep South. But there is high pressure to 
our northwest, and a cold front ahead of it that appears to constitute a barrier to the northward advance of Ida's rains.
"It's the remnants of Ida, and how quickly/how far its rainfall spreads northward that will determine the outcome of this forecast," the forecasters say in this morning's discussion.
For now, the official forecast out of Sterling is calling for a chance for rain to develop after 10 p.m. this evening as the Gulf moisture begins to run up against the cold front. Veterans Day comes with a 30 percent chance for rain or drizzle, with temperatures held in the mid-50s. The drizzle chances continue in to the evening. But the rest of the week, and right into early next week, looks sunny with seasonable highs near 60 degrees.
Whatever happens here, it appears the coastal counties will see some considerable wind and rain in the next few days, with some chance for minor coastal flooding as a series of offshore lows keep persistent northeast winds shove more water onto the bay and ocean shorelines.
Comments
I'm not too trusting of anyone's forecast for this storm. Early on, it was forecast to not have much to any potential to form as a storm. But it did organize and a named storm formed. Then it was the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua would tear the storm apart. They didn't, and it just grew stronger, eventually becoming a Cat-2. Then the storm was expected to cross the Yucatan peninsula, and become an unorganized low pressure area. It didn't by staying over open water to the east of the Yucatan. Then it was forecast to get to the middle of the Gulf, then take a sharp right and cross the Florida peninsula (just north of Orlando). Nada. Then it was to hit the northern Gulf coast of Florida, or maybe the central Florida panhandle. Nope - it hit land west of Florida, in Alabama. Now this storm is not supposed to have any affect on central Maryland? I won't believe that until I see it!! (actually DON"T see it - VBG)
FR: What forecasts were you reading? My recollection is that forecasters had this one pegged from the start as a storm that could survive landfall in Central America and emerge into the northwest Caribbean as a tropical storm. I think our posts reflect that. And the storm tracks by then took it through the Yucatan Channel, not across the Yucatan landmass. And once it reached the Gulf, the forecast tracks sent Ida into the La. - to Fla. region. They did forecast more weakening in the northern Gulf than actually occurred. And I don't think anyone expected it to reach Cat. 2. After landfall, they did expect the storm to veer east, which the central low did. But the rain shield was swept our way by upper-level winds. Then forecasters began debating how far north the rain would get as it ran into high pressure and dry air to the north of us. They do seem to have underestimated how wet it's gotten since.
Posted by: Mike in Baltimore | November 11, 2009 1:41 AM
Frank,
What forecasts did I see and/or base my comments on?
- The Weather Channel, which based a lot of their forecasts on NOAA forecasts.
- The NOAA forecasts on the NOAA web pages.
- Forecasts from various other networks and the web pages of print media other than the Baltimore Sun.
- When NOAA first flew planes into the storm a couple of days prior to landfall in Nicaragua, it was the (publicly announced) opinion of NOAA that they didn't think anything would form from the 'weather disturbance' (actual audio quotations of NOAA spokespersons aired on The Weather Channel).
NOAA NEVER stated that the storm would develop into a Cat 2, yet it briefly was a Cat 2. If NOAA never expected a storm to organize from the weather disturbance they originally investigated on November 4, of COURSE they didn't expect it to develop into a Cat 2. But it did (based on observations from 18:00 GMT, Sun Nov 8 2009 to 06:00 GMT, Mon Nov 9 2009).
As to where the center of the low made landfall in the US (between Pensacola and Tallahassee) is several hundred miles NW of (at one time) a forecast of a landfall that would have taken the storm across Florida just north of Orlando, then out to the Atlantic, as originally predicted by NOAA, as reported by the Weather Channel and various other sources.
Weather forecasting has made tremendous progress in accuracy in the past three to four decades, but it is still VERY far from perfect.
See also:
http://www.personalhurricanecenter.com/4455/it-will-be-very-difficult-for-ida-to-survive-nicaragua-honduras (I do not own or contribute to the site in the provided URL).
Posted by: Mike in Baltimore | November 11, 2009 6:31 PM