The average high temperature in Baltimore at this time of year is 68 degrees. But we'll be dressing for temperatures about 20 degrees colder than that by Thursday morning, according to the National Weather Service forecast office in Sterling. Add in rain - and overnight snow at higher elevations to our west - and we're looking at a nasty package for Marylanders as we head into the weekend.

The forecast out for Baltimore this morning calls for rain developing tonight and tomorrow as low-pressure systems converge on the region from the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and along the East Coast. The rain chances rise to 100 percent on Thursday, with forecast highs of just 47 degrees at BWI. As much as an inch of precipitation is possible at the airport.

The rain will continue Thursday night, with another half to three-quarters of an inch added in. Temperatures will remain in the 40s through Saturday, with better-than-even chances of rain continuing.

Saturday night's lows will drop into the 30s if the forecast holds up, with rain chances continuing into Sunday. Western Maryland will be stuck in the 30s, and at the higher elevations, there is a risk of snow, although no significant accumulations are expected.

(Actually, there were plenty of readings in the 30s in the area this morning. It was 38 on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville.)

So let's see... stormy weather moving into California, crossing the continent and regenerating in the South, then moving up the East Coast ... That sounds a whole lot like the El Nino Winter scenario. If it persists, a setup like this in, say, a cold spell in January or February, could deliver a pretty significant snowstorm to Maryland. 

But, I digress. As this coastal low moves off into the Atlantic, we'll still be stuck with a chance of light rain until Monday, when high pressure begins to move in, finally, with sunshine pushing daytime temperatures into the low 60s again. Still cool for this time of year, but it will be a welcome relief.

(SUN PHOTO/Amy Davis/Baltimore 2005)