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September 2, 2009

Sunny day, chasin' the clouds away

Chesapeake Bay/NASA/GSFCNow this is pretty darm near perfect. Canadian high pressure is parked over the Great Lakes, putting us in a nice northerly  or northeasterly flow of cool, dry air. Sunshine, low humidity and pleasant temperatures right through to the weekend.

We may see a few fair-weather clouds around as humidities slowly rise. And a coastal low could throw some clouds back our way, and maybe an overnight shower this weekend.

But all-in-all, it's relatively cool and dry right into the middle of next week, with highs no higher than the low 80s. Sweet.

Best of all, we can open the windows (well, not here at Calvert & Centre), and let the breeze sweep through.

Blankets and silent air conditioners are the rule all night long, with lows in the 50s, maybe even 40s and upper 30s in the far western counties.

Tropical Storm Erika, meanwhile, appears to have weakened some overnight, as expected. The storm is pretty badly organized for now, and is forecast to weaken further in high-level wind shear as it moves toward the Bahamas. Computer models apparently disagree over whether this storm will survive. The National Hurricane Center thinks not. Here's a snippet from this morning's NHC discussion:

"DESPITE ALL THIS
SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS.  THIS REINTENSIFICATION
DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN
THE GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED."

Erika is a minimal tropical storm now, with top sustained winds of 40 mph. It is approaching the Leeward Islands, with tropical storm warnings posted for ANTIGUA, BARBUDA, MONTSERRAT, ST. KITTS, NEVIS, ANGUILLA, ST. MAARTEN, SABA and ST. EUSTATIUS, in case you're headed down there.

Here is the latest advisory. Here is the forecast storm track. Here is the view from orbit.  

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:45 AM | | Comments (0)
Categories: Forecasts
        

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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