The forecast from the National Weather Service has been calling for rain in Baltimore every day since the middle of last week. They pointed to a coastal storm and winds off the Atlantic bringing lots of clouds and moisture into the region.

Well, seems like we've had plenty of clouds, and cool temperatures. But the airport has recorded barely a quarter-inch of rain. And out on the WeatherDeck in Cockeysville, we've noted less than a tenth of an inch all month.

Somehow, we've stayed just far enough west and north of the action to remain pretty nearly dry all week. But can we duck the rain much longer?

The official forecast out of Sterling pushes the likelihood of showers today and tomorrow to 70 percent. And tonight's odds are set at 100 percent. If the wettest end of their predictions proves correct, the city could see more than 2 inches of rain between now and Friday night. Any bets?

UPDATE 2:30 p.m. Thursday: Forecasters have already backed off earlier rain amounts. Rain chances this afternoon are now 20 percent, not 70 percent. 

A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through early Friday morning for the Western Shore, from Harford to St. Mary's counties. Tides may run up to 18 inches above predicted levels late Thursday as persistent northeast winds continue to push water onto the beaches and up the creeks.

Winds may pick up, too, as that coastal low continues to hang out near the mouth of the Chesapeake. Gale warnings are posted for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake through midnight Thursday night as the low approaches. 

Conditions look dicey for the beaches, too, with Coastal Flood, High Surf and Wind advisories posted for Ocean City. Gusts could reach 45 mph. Tides could be 2.5 feet above predictions, and the risk of rip currents is high.

Be careful out there.