The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its August update on the prospects for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Not surprisingly, the feds agree with earlier updates by Colorado State forecasters and others - we can expect at most an average season this year, or perhaps less.

NOAA's forecasters on Thursday revised downward their May predictions, lopping off a couple of named storms, a hurricane and perhaps one major storm. Specifically:

May forecast: 9 to 14 named storms; 4 to 7 hurricanes; 1 to 3 "major" storms of Category 3 or higher.

August forecast: 7 to 10 named storms; 3 to 6 hurricanes; 1-2 major storms.

Average: 11 named storms; 6 hurricanes; 2 major storms.

The reason for backing off the earlier predictions? Once again, it's El Nino.

"El Nino continues to develop and is already affecting upper-level atmospheric pressure and winds across the global tropics," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. "El Nino produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms."

But lest we become too relaxed, officials also warn that a calm start, and a relatively quiet season do not mean everyone is safe.

"It takes only one storm to put a community at risk," said FEMA administrator Craig Fugate. "That is why we need to take action and prepare ourselves and our families before the next storm hits."

We have yet to see our first named storm this season. And for now, the tropics remain quiet.