New storm a growing threat
The tropical disturbance north of the island of Puerto Rico continues to grow and become better organized, and forecasters now give it a better-than-even chance to become a tropical storm - Danny - in the next 48 hours.
The 2 p.m. (Tuesday) advisory places stormy weather about 300 miles north of San Juan, moving toward the west northwest at around 20 mph. Reconnaissance aircraft were scheduled to fly through the storm Tuesday afternoon to gather more data on its development.
Here's the view from orbit.
The first land mass likely to feel the effects of the bad weather would be the Bahamas. Those with interests in the islands were advised to follow the storm's progress.
From there, steering winds would take it on toward the southeastern U.S. coast by Friday, although most models predict it would curve to the north, and then northeast sometime before making landfall on the coast. Dangerous rip currents seem likely to persist, however, even under this scenario.
NWS forecasters at Sterling don't seem especially concerned about this storm, noting that a cold front due here from the west later this week would tend to push the tropical low away from the coast. Just how close it gets remains a matter of debate among the computer models. Here's a bit of the forecasters' discussion this afternoon:
"TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DEPENDS ON TIMING OF
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST... 00Z EURO [a computer forecast model] /DESPITE HAVING A SLOWER SOLUTION FOR THE TC [tropical cyclone]/ SUGGESTS A TRACK NEARER THE MID-ATLANTIC THAN THE GFS [another model]. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM /NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT AT THIS TIME/ AND PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. EXPECT AN ACTIVE WEEKEND WITH MOIST SWLY/SLY [southwesterly or southerly] FLOW.
"COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BRING AUTUMNAL-LIKE CANADIAN
AIRMASS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC."
That last note will be welcomed by teachers and students as classes resume for most school systems next week. No need to worry about sweltering in un-airconditioned schools. Look for highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.