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August 27, 2009

Clouds, showers and storms on tap for weekend

Danny 

With a cold front aproaching from the north and west, and Tropical Storm Danny edging in from the southeast, Marylanders are in for a weekend primed for wet and breezy weather.

Forecasters out at Sterling say we'll have one more day of near-90 summer weather today (Thursday). But as we come into a more northeasterly flow around a deep Canadian low to our north, winds off the ocean will begin to bring in cooler, wetter air, with more clouds and increasing chances for showers.

There is a 70 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms by Friday as the cold front stalls over the region, and we get continued northeasterly winds off the ocean.

Saturday is when Tropical Storm Danny - maybe Hurricane Danny by then - comes into play. Some forecast models bring the storm right along the coastline, with more pronounced impacts on the beaches and into the Chesapeake. But forecasters say the most recent model runs keep the storm's center farther offshore, reducing the risks.

Here is the latest forecast advisory for Danny. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from space.

Either way, this will likely be a very wet event, especially for the Eastern Shore, with a couple of inches of rain possible. Here's part of the Thursday morning forecast discussion out of Sterling:

"THE ATMOSPHERIC REGIME AHEAD OF DANNY /REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT
TRACK/ FOR THE MID ATLC WILL BE ONE OF INCREASING MOISTURE ...

"THIS LIKELY SPELLS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF
EARLY FRI INTO EARLY SAT. ... W/ SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS DEVELOPING ... ACTIVITY WOULD BE
FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AND SCATTERED IN NATURE W/ UNFAVORABLE WIND
PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...WHICH AGAIN HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPACT
OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL /EVEN FROM LIGHT-MOD ECHOES/.

"AFTER THE TROPICAL FEATURE SLIDES WELL TO THE NE INTO LATE SAT...THE
UPPER LOW /OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ RESPONSIBLE FOR KEEPING DANNY OFF
THE COAST WILL KEEP THE EASTERN SEABOARD WELL SUITED FOR MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY."

Finally, once Danny races off toward the northeast, the cold front drops through the region, and cooler, more autumnal weather moves in. Overnight temperatures in Western Maryland could drop into the 40s and to the 50s for the metro areas next week.

We should see highs only in the 70s in Baltimore. Great back-to-school weather, right kids?!

Posted by Frank Roylance at 8:57 AM | | Comments (0)
Categories: Forecasts
        

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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