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August 18, 2009

Bill may be boon to surfers

Hurricane Bill 

If the forecasts hold up, Hurricane Bill will become a major storm today. But the forecast tracks suggest the tempest will veer northward before reaching the U.S. mainland. That would make Bill a threat to Bermuda, and to shipping. But its biggest impact on the U.S. east coast would be in the form of big surf and rip currents. More on that from AccuWeather.com

Bill is still far out in the Atlantic, 800 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It's headed west northwest at 17 mph, with top sustained winds of about 100 mph. Bill was forecast to become a Cat. 3 "major" storm today, with top winds of 111 mph or more on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

Here is the latest advisory on Bill. Here is the forecast storm track. And here is the view from orbit.

Posted by Frank Roylance at 10:11 AM | | Comments (2)
Categories: Hurricanes
        

Comments

I guess letter A was a dud.

FR: Not quite. What remains of Tropical Storm Ana is moving into South Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms.

What are the forecast probabilities that Anna will reform once in the Gulf? Which will be the reason for Bill not coming ashore on the east coast; the Bremuda High or the cold front moving south?

FR: Ana has fallen apart and is unlikely to reform. Bil is being squeezed between a high to its north and east, and a low to the west. Hard to see how he blasts through to the coast. Here's the discussion:

"THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND BILL CONTINUES
TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND
THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING
BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST
COAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH IN FACT HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN
TURNING BILL NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS"

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About Frank Roylance
This site is the Maryland Weather archive. The current Maryland Weather blog can be found here.
Frank Roylance is a reporter for The Baltimore Sun. He came to Baltimore from New Bedford, Mass. in 1980 to join the old Evening Sun. He moved to the morning Sun when the papers merged in 1992, and has spent most of his time since covering science, including astronomy and the weather. One of The Baltimore Sun's first online Web logs, the Weather Blog debuted in October 2004. In June 2006 Frank also began writing comments on local weather and stargazing for The Baltimore Sun's print Weather Page. Frank also answers readers’ weather queries for the newspaper and the blog. Frank Roylance retired in October 2011. Maryland Weather is now being updated by members of The Baltimore Sun staff
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